Saturday, September 23, 2017

WEEK 3 NFL PREDICTIONS

     If Marshal Yanda retired today, he would undoubtedly go down as one of the most dominant Ravens at his particular position along with the likes of Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs and Jonathan Ogden.  Yanda's ferocious power and incredible motor have allowed him to dominate virtually anyone who has dared to line up in front of him or even 5 yards away from him over the last decade.  Yanda played through a significant shoulder injury last year and even switched positions just so he could stay on the field.  Last Sunday big number 73 seemed to get his leg tangled up in a pile at the end of a play and then called for the training staff.  After a minute of being tended to by the Ravens medical staff, Yanda got up and shook off any assistance as he insisted on walking himself back to the sideline.  It was at that point that many, including myself, must have assumed Yanda simply twisted his ankle or something of that nature and would likely be back on the field shortly.

     If only Yanda's insistence on walking off the field without help truly meant he was fine.  After the game John Harbaugh announced that his all-pro guard would need season ending surgery on his ankle.  Fortunately for the Ravens, Ozzie Newsome had recently stocked up on guards for just such an event.  Ozzie ironically traded for and signed backup guards more as insurance in case James Hurst failed to perform well on the left side.  Hurst, despite being responsible for Joe Flacco's torn ACL in 2015, has actually been a part of an offensive line that has ranked 4th in the league thus far.  Tony Bergstrom, Yanda's replacement in the second half of last week's game against the Browns, actually performed admirably down the stretch after a bit of a rocky start.  The Ravens ran the ball 67 yards with Yanda on the field last week, and oddly enough, they ran the ball for 69 yards after he was forced to leave the game. 

     That isn't to say the Ravens are somehow better or even the same with Yanda on the field, but it at least means that their productivity doesn't fall sharply off of a cliff.  Part of the Ravens' ability to continue to move the football on the ground without their top offensive lineman stems from an impressive new set of plays and formations that have been the result of a meeting of the minds between Greg Roman and Marty Mornhinweg.  Mornhinweg wasn't necessarily a fan favorite last year, but I made note that the offensive production increased sharply in the second half of the season after he took over for Marc Trestman.  The issue was that Mornhinweg was still operating Trestman's offense last year.  This year we're seeing what Marty has been able to draw up, and it has fit the Ravens' personnel astoundingly well.

     Mike Wallace, Breshad Perriman, and to a lesser extend Jeremy Maclin probably aren't thrilled with their roles thus far in the Ravens offense.  Maclin has had one touchdown in each game, but Wallace and Perriman have been scarcely used.  That does not, however, mean that they won't be utilized heavily going forward.  In fact, if Flacco isn't throwing much to his wide receivers, it likely means the Ravens are playing with a lead.  Baltimore's newfound ability to impose their will on the ground has meant far less passing, particularly in the second half of games.  The use of tight ends has been so creative an efficient that it has helped to add extra protection for Joe, open up running lanes, and take advantage of wide open space over the middle of the field off of play action fakes.  This is exactly what the Ravens need right now with the loss of an all-pro offensive linemen and a quarterback still slowly returning to form after being sidelined with a back injury during pre-season.

     Just as impressive as the Ravens use of 2 and 3 tight end sets has been the fact that they've become the 3rd ranked rushing offense in the league without a top tier running back.  Terrence West, Bush Allen, and newly acquired Alex Collins would be backups on most other teams, but they've come together to form a three-headed monster.  Buck Allen leads the trio with only 137 rushing yards thus far--nothing spectacular.  Combine that number with the rushing totals of his teammates, however, and you get a thunderous 293 yards in only two games.  It helps that each of these backs has a different running style and different strengths, but it also helps that they've been put in situations to be successful.  Alex Collins flashed serious speed, elusiveness, and burst last week, and despite his unfortunate fumble after what would have been an impressive spin move, he actually looks the most explosive of the three.  Collins appeared dead to rites on three separate plays, but his incredible lateral movement allowed him to evade defenders and gain positive yardage in situations where many backs would have been tackled yards behind the line of scrimmage.  While watching him break for a long run, it was tough not to imagine him emerging as the starter over the next month. 

     The rushing attack isn't the only elite part of the Ravens thus far.  It's no secret that the defense has gotten off to a dominant start with 10 turnovers and only 10 total points allowed thus far this season.  That isn't to say that they have totally suffocated offenses as the Browns moved the ball more than Ravens defenders would have preferred last week.  Baltimore's defense, nevertheless, found ways to make impact plays and capitalize off of their opponents' mistakes.  After all, when a team averages 5 turnovers per game, it's no sort of accident or blind luck.  Just how good this Ravens defense is will be tested and potentially proven over the next 3 weeks.  A week from Sunday the Ravens face the vaunted Steelers offense in Baltimore, and the week after that they head out to California to face an explosive Raiders offense.  Before all of that, the Ravens will have to face an impressive young Jaguars running back, Leonard Fournette, and they'll have to face him without Brandon Williams.

    It's difficult to imagine the Ravens losing a game to a team that is undeniably worse on paper.  Sure, the Jaguars beat down the Texans in an incredibly sloppy, mistake laden matchup, but they were dominated a week later by the Titans...who were defeated at home the week before by the Raiders.  Beating up on a Texans team that couldn't stop turning the ball over simply isn't predictive of success against a Ravens team that makes far fewer mistakes.  I read that the Ravens could struggle to throw the football against the Jaguars' cornerback tandem, but Jalen Ramsey did not practice on Thursday and was only a limited participant on Friday's practice in England.  In addition, the Ravens haven't relied much on their wide receivers thus far, and the Jags will likely have to do everything in their power just to stop the Ravens running game and tight ends.  The Ravens also have three starting receivers with elite speed, so the idea that a pair of shutdown corners will stifle Baltimore's offense means on of the three could potentially abuse whichever poor soul finds himself lined up against Jeremy Maclin in the slot.

     Another great matchup to watch will be Terrell Suggs against the young offensive tackle Cam Robinson.  Robinson has been a limited participant in practice all week with a shoulder injury, and that can't be good with #55 playing as well as literally any point in his career.  Suggs already has 3 sacks, two forced fumbles, and a pass defensed over the course of only two games.  Pittsburgh fans marvel over James Harrison's ability to play admirably despite his advanced age, but Suggs is absolutely dominating and he turns 35 next month.  Unfortunately for Blake Bortles, Terrell Suggs had 2 sacks including one that helped to seal a Ravens victory when these two teams faced on another last year.  I fully expect to see another pair on Sunday and some ruthless hits from a good number of the Ravens pass rushers. 

     Blake Bortles has been bad enough already WITHOUT the threat of a ferocious Ravens pass rush and opportunistic Ravens secondary.  Bortles has earned a disappointing QBR of 26 so far this season.  He has thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns (2), fumbled the football once, and his 56% completion isn't exactly elite.  I heard while watching television that the Jaguars' offense is built around Leonard Fournette.  Fournette is a serious talent, but the Ravens bottled up Joe Mixon who is, in my humble opinion, even more talented and elusive of a big back than Fournette.  Even without Brandon Williams, the Ravens have more than enough talent in their defensive front 7 to limit Fournette on the ground and force Bortles into 3rd and long situations wherein Suggs and company will be able to pin their ears back and get after a lackluster quarterback.  Allen Hurns is a talented receiver, but the Ravens held A.J. Green well under 100 yards, and he's far better than Hurns.

     This isn't a game I see the Ravens losing, but it's also not a game they can take lightly--nor should they with any game.  No team should ever overlook any team on its schedule, but the true test will come next week as the Ravens will have to deal with flying back to the United States before facing a Steelers team that appears to be finding a rhythm now that Martavis Bryant has begun to regain his form from two years ago.  The week after that the Ravens will travel to the west coast to face the Raiders' vaunted offense.  If the Ravens can win at least two out of their next three games, it will be safe to say that their defense is legitimately strong and their dominant performances in the first two weeks were not just a product of the low level of competition they faced within the first two weeks of this season.

     It doesn't appear as though there are a ton of titanic matchups this week in the NFL, but there are at least a couple of games worth your attention aside, of course, of the Ravens game.  There will also undoubtedly be an upset or two as we're still learning the true strength level of each team.  Let's take a look at this week's predictions!

THE PICKS

BRONCOS AT BILLS- Trevor Siemian has had a sensational start to the season with 6 touchdowns passes in his first two games.  The Bills were good enough to beat the Jets, but the Jets are also the NFL's only team that threw in the towel before the season already began (cuz even the Browns are at least trying to field a quality team).  Defense typically travels well and this Broncos defense was good enough to limit the Cowboys--it'll be good enough to limit the Bills too.  BRONCOS 31-20

STEELERS AT BEARS- The Bears played the Falcons relatively closely in Week 1, but they were crushed by the Buccaneers last week.  I would like nothing more than to see da Bears upset the Steelers, but I am not delusional.  STEELERS 35-17

FALCONS AT LIONS- This will be one of the more interesting games of the first quarter of the season.  Both the Lions and Falcons have begun the season 2-0 with fairly dominant performances in each of their contests.  The fact that the Falcons struggled as much as they did to put the Bears away on the road, however, gives me the impression that they'll struggle quite a bit more on a much better team's turf.  I like the Falcons at home, but their defense has typically been weaker outside of Atlanta.  LIONS 28-24

BROWNS AT COLTS- This game is essentially the opposite of the aforementioned Falcons-Lions game.  The Browns are winless, and the Colts aren't only winless--they're temporarily decapitated with Andrew Luck out.  Between Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck, the Colts have spent nearly the last 20 years with such impossibly weak teams that they fall hopelessly apart without their quarterbacks.  I've never seen an NFL team so inept without just a single player.  The Browns will be without Corey Coleman but Deshone Kizer is good enough to make plays on an inadequate Colts defense.   BROWNS 23-10

BUCCANEERS AT VIKINGS- As long as Sam Bradford is out, the Vikings are likely going to struggle to win games.  The Buccaneers also happen to be a quality team.  BUCCANEERS 27-14

TEXANS AT PATRIOTS-  Congratulations to the Texans on barely beating the Bengals, but the Patriots will have home field advantage and Danny Amendola and Gronk back.  PATRIOTS 38-21

DOLPHINS AT JETS- The Dolphins are rested and armed with a quarterback with on of the biggest arms in the NFL.  He isn't perfect, but Jay Cutler should be able to better take advantage of the speed in the Dolphins receiving corps.  What better game to get in rhythm than one against easily the worst team in the league.  DOLPHINS 24-13

GIANTS AT EAGLES-  There's still a chance they could turn things around, but until the Giants give me a reason, I can't pick them to beat a quality team.  The Eagles might not yet be quite as good as I thought they'd be, but losing by a touchdown to the Chiefs in Kansas City is no reason to hang one's head in shame.  The Giants need to learn how to put together offensive drives, but this is not the week they get things all figured out.  EAGLES 30-16

SAINTS AT PANTHERS- Drew Brees probably longs for the days where he had chain-moving weapons such as Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham.  A 9-3 win over the Bills wasn't particularly impressive last week, but the Panthers have had a lot of success against the Saints over the last 7 years.  PANTHERS 20-17

SEAHAWKS AT TITANS- The era of Seahawks dominance is gone.  It's still possible that they figure things out and make a push for the playoffs in an incredibly weak division this year, but I have to think they'll struggle to stop the Titans offense so far away from the 12th man in Seattle.  TITANS 23-21

BENGALS AT PACKERS- I'm not too sold on the Packers after they were trounced by the Falcons last week in Atlanta, but the Bengals will have a tough time getting their first win in Green Bay.  This, however, will likely be a closer game than many anticipate.  PACKERS 21-20

CHIEFS AT CHARGERS- Going across the country to play a divisional rival is always tough.  The Chargers have struggled thus far though, and I can't imagine they'll get their first win against what appears to be one of the top 5 strongest teams in the league.  CHIEFS 27-20

RAIDERS AT REDSKINS- The Redskins had a nice win against the Rams last week, but the Raiders likely have more offensive firepower than Washington can handle.  31-24

COWBOYS AT CARDINALS- Just barely beating the Colts isn't enough to instill confidence in my mind about Arizona.  The Cowboys will remember to feed Zeke this week, and they should be able to lock down a victory against a weak Cardinals team.  COWBOYS 20-16

 RAVENS AT JAGUARS- The Ravens may have discovered a secret weapon last week in Alex Collins.  He ran with more burst, quickness, and better top speed than literally anyone who has run the ball for the Ravens since Ray Rice in his prime.  Having Collins as one of the heads in a three headed monster will likely mean Baltimore won't struggle to convert first downs against the Jaguars.  If Leonard Fournette is the biggest thing to worry about on the Jaguars offense, the Ravens defense will be just fine.  The Ravens D bottled up Joe Mixon, and I believe he's actually better and more elusive.  Problems in the Ravens defense have only come in pass coverage thus far, but expect Suggs to abuse an ailing rookie left tackle and expect Brent Urban to have a huge day with at least a deflected pass or two.  This won't be a blow out because the Ravens will once again look to run down the clock once they have a comfortable lead, and then the Jags will score late, but it wont be enough. RAVENS 23-16




IT SHOULD BE INTERESTING TO WATCH THE RAVENS AT 9:30 IN THE MORNING!  LET'S HOPE RAVENS NATION GROWS IN MERRY OLD ENGLAND!

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!

    

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