Beating a struggling Raiders team without its starting quarterback might not seem like a particularly impressive feat, and it probably wasn't. The Raiders began the first month of their season on relatively shaky ground before losing Pro Bowl quarterback Derek Carr. Without Carr, the Raiders offense was left in the hands of a man who hasn't won a football game as a starter in several seasons. The vast majority of sports pundits, however, still predicted the Ravens would lose in their trip across the country last weekend--it's a good thing they didn't.
The Raiders were exactly the type of opponent the Ravens needed following two depressing losses in a row. Playing in Oakland offered opportunities for success as well as opportunities to prove the team had corrected major mistakes it made over the previous two weeks. The Raiders defense was ranked in the lower half of the league, so the Baltimore's offense was able to find its footing and rhythm, but they still had the challenge of finding ways to fix pass protection to keep pass rushers such as Khalil Mack at bay. The Raiders offense was without its most integral cog, but it still had an elusive, mobile backup quarterback who beat the Ravens in his last matchup against Baltimore in 2013 as well as several strong offensive weapons such as Michael Crabtree, Amari Cooper, and Marshawn Lynch who all have given the Ravens fits in seasons past.
At this point a reader might be thinking that beating a decapitated team doesn't mean the Ravens have necessarily improved to the degree necessary to beat quality opponents but at this point, which teams would even be considered elite in the AFC? The Chiefs are unbeaten and look incredibly explosive, but they're not on the Ravens regular season schedule. The Patriots are usually terrifying, but they, like the Ravens, are 3-2 and fortunate not to be 2-3 after their last opponent's kicker missed three makeable field goals in a game decided by less than a touchdown. The Steelers beat the Ravens, but they were just drubbed 30-9 by a Jaguars team that could probably beat anyone on one of their good days and lose to anyone on a bad day. The Texans looked ferocious after putting up 57 points two weeks ago, but they're coming off a loss in which they allowed the Chiefs to put up 43 points in Houston and lost J.J. Watt for the season.
So who then has a better record than the Ravens in the AFC? That would be the Chiefs and no one else. No AFC team has more than 3 wins, and each team with 3 wins has looked incredibly flawed at times. Of the three NFC teams with better records than the Ravens, only one, Green Bay, is coming up on Baltimore's schedule. What lays before Baltimore is a fantastic opportunity to head into their bye week 6-3 or even 7-2. Coming up next are the Chicago Bears, and despite a strong defense, their offense is led by a rookie quarterback who displayed almost a total inability to complete a pass under pressure in his first start--he literally only completed one pass when pressured. Mitch Trubisky will have an embarrassingly limited number of receiving weapons at his disposal as Markus Wheaton has already been ruled out and the only other remotely notable wide receiver on the depth chart is Kendall Wright. To make matters worse for Chicago, the Ravens have never lost at home to a rookie quarterback under John Harbaugh.
Following the Bears, Flacco and company will face presumably their greatest challenge of the upcoming month with a road trip to Minnesota to face the Vikings. The Vikings have possessed one of the league's fastest, most ferocious defenses over the last two seasons, but their offense has taken three major hits as of late. Dynamic starting running back, Dalvin Cook, tore his ACL recently, Sam Bradford was pulled from Monday night's game and is out with a knee injury, and former University of Maryland receiver and speed demon Stefon Diggs has already been announced as not playing against the Packers this weekend. Cook is on injured reserve, Bradford is as good as out, and if Diggs is still out when his team travels to Baltimore, the Vikings' ability to score will be profoundly limited against a fairly strong, opportunistic Ravens defense.
Four days after facing the Vikings at home, the Ravens will turn their attention to a Dolphins team that is 2-2, but their only wins have come against the struggling 1-4 Chargers and the Titans without Marcus Mariota. The Titans also happen to be the final team Baltimore will face before the bye week. By the time the Ravens face the Titans, it's possible Marcus Mariota could be healthy, but the mobile quarterback is rehabbing an injured hamstring, and that is one of the easiest muscles to reinjure because of the physics and explosive nature of running. One of the strongest aspects of Mariota's game is his ability to scramble out of a collapsing pocket and make plays. A nagging hamstring injury could render Mariota far less mobile and leave him a sitting duck for the likes of Terrell Suggs.
Baltimore SHOULD be favored to win all four of their remaining games before their bye week. Not because the Ravens are amazing, but because their opponents have glaring weaknesses from absences and injuries to personnel. Entering the bye week 7-2 would be the best start the Ravens have managed since the 2012 Super Bowl season when they began the year on a 9-2 run. In fact, it's vitally important that Baltimore beats all or nearly all of their pre-bye opponents, because the post-bye back end of the season has far tougher challenges looming. The bye week actually comes at a fantastic time as it is situated just before a road trip to Green Bay. Baltimore will head into Green Bay rested and with an added weapon known as Danny Woodhead.
Danny Woodhead played only in the Ravens' season-opening offensive drive, but he displayed fantastic hands, the ability to get open quickly, and immediate chemistry with Joe. Woodhead looked more like a slot receiver, and he lined up as one at times as he converted 3 first downs on the catches. Having a pass-catching back/slot receiver who can move the chains consistently will be tremendous for Flacco in a season where the Ravens have seen their fair share of players go down with major injuries.
Maurice Canady and Jaylen Hill are two other players set to return within the next month who could make a tremendous difference in a Ravens defense that has been uneven to say the least. Baltimore put on 3 strong defensive performances in their wins but also two puzzling meltdowns in their losses. The Ravens need the return of Hill and Canady to get Lardarius Webb out of his starting nickelback role. Webb is a fantastic tackler, and he can be used as a quality backup safety or he can be brought as a surprisingly effective blitzer, but Lardarius no longer possesses the elite coverage skills he displayed earlier in his career. The veteran defensive back simply gets beat too often to be trusted to cover quick slot receivers. Hill and Canady bring youthful speed and quickness to a position that requires exactly that. The Ravens outside corners have performed extremely well thus far, and first round pick Marlon Humprey has jumped in for Jimmy Smith so seamlessly that the defense no longer drops off a cliff if he leaves the game.
One player whose absence appeared, at least initially, to lead to a massive drop-off in Baltimore's defensive production was Brandon Williams. Williams' presence in the middle of the defensive line is not to be underestimated as his physical dominance frees up the likes of Suggs and the Ravens' younger pass rushers. Initially the Ravens defense looked absolutely lost without it's centerpiece, but then Willie Henry began to grow up quickly. Henry has displayed excellent technique and brutal strength shedding blockers to stuff the run, and he's batted down a handful of passes at critical moments to force opposing offenses off the field. So while Brandon William's absence may have led to a collapse against the Jaguars, it has also given the opportunity for a former fourth round pick to quickly mature into a starting-caliber player. From this point on, if Brandon Williams has to come off the field, Baltimore knows that the defensive line won't miss a beat.
By now you've hopefully realized the message I'm making my best efforts to convey: the Ravens aren't perfect, but reinforcements are on the way and this team could and should actually get better two thirds of the way through the season. If in fact the Ravens want to get back to the playoffs, they MUST get better following the bye week, and they MUST find a way to win most if not all of their next four games against weakened opponents. With that, it's time to take a look at the matchups for this week!
WEEK 6 NFL PICKS
DOLPHINS AT FALCONS- Not a tremendous amount of thoughtful analysis required for this one. The Dolphins have won half their games so far, but they'll need to get much better to be able to go into Atlanta and take down the Falcons. FALCONS 34-21
PACKERS AT VIKINGS- A strong Minnesota defense and divisional familiarity will keep this close through the first half, but the Vikings are missing their starting quarterback, their most dynamic receiver, and their explosive starting running back. The Packers, meanwhile, have only lost a single game and it was to the Falcons in Atlanta. PACKERS 28-17
LIONS AT SAINTS- The Lions got off to a great start, but they've dropped two of their last three games. The only game Detroit won over the last three weeks was against a Vikings team with nearly all of their biggest offensive pieces sidelined. The Saints, on the other hand, began the season poorly but have come on as of late with a 20-0 shutout of the Dolphins and a dominant 34-13 win over the Panthers in Charlotte. Adrian Peterson is no longer a washed up distraction. Good move, Saints. SAINTS 33-24
PATRIOTS AT JETS- Only barely beating the Browns last week doesn't exactly inspire my confidence in the New York Jets despite their current 3-game winning streak. The only win over an impressive opponent during that stretch was their 23-20 win over the Jaguars. The Patriots have the same 3-2 record as the Jets, but their list of opponents has been insanely hard thus far. The Patriots have played the Chiefs, Saints, Panthers, Texans, and Buccaneers so far, and only lost narrowly to the Panthers and more handedly to the unbeaten Chiefs. New England's defense will be without Stephon Gilmore, and it hasn't put up a particularly dominant performance yet unless you're willing to include last week when they benefitted from 3 quite makeable field goals that the Buccaneers kicker missed. The Patriots truly haven't been the same after losing Julian Edelman even after getting Gronk back and acquiring Brandin Cooks, but I still think they've put together more wins over quality opponents than the Jets so far. PATRIOTS 27-23
49ERS AT REDSKINS- The Redskins' only losses thus far have come against two of the top 4 teams in the league. It's difficult to go across the country and win, but even harder when you're playing a tough team and your team is totally winless on the season. REDSKINS 31-14
BROWNS AT TEXANS- The Texans have come back down to Earth, but this is not the week or the venue that the Browns get their first win. TEXANS 38-20
BUCCANEERS AT CARDINALS- The Cardinals' only wins were squeakers over two of the absolute worst teams in the league. The Bucs are a decent team and going on the road won't be enough to stop them from outscoring Carson Palmer's offense. BUCCANEERS 30-21
RAMS AT JAGUARS- The Texans have alternated each week between dominating a quality opponent and losing in head-scratching to an undeniably inferior opponent. Part of that is their dependence on turnovers to stop opposing offenses. Their offense is not consistent enough to move the football without the benefit of short fields gained by takeaways their defense has secured. Throttling the Texans, Ravens, and Steelers but then losing to the Titans and Jets leaves me wondering which team will show up on Sunday against the Rams. The Rams have actually also looked pretty strong this season with a great running game and solid defense. This is probably the toughest game to predict of the week, but I'm going to stick to the Jaguars' current pattern. RAMS 23-17
STEELERS AT CHIEFS- The Steelers beat the Ravens soundly and they have strong pieces on both offense and defense. Pittsburgh, however, is going on the road against an unbeaten Chiefs team that simply looks faster and more explosive than the Steelers at this point. Ben Roethlisberger doesn't look quite right this season, and his consideration of retirement over the summer should have been a clue to many that his body is feeling the effects of over 14 seasons of toughing it out through brutal hits and injuries. Ben doesn't seem to possess the same velocity on the football that he once did, and that led to a career high 5 interceptions last week. The Chiefs did lose wide receiver Chris Conley to an Achilles tear last week, but Alex Smith is surprisingly playing the best football of his career at the age of 33. Smith has done it all with a surprising level of mobility given his age. CHIEFS 31-28
CHARGERS AT RAIDERS- The Chargers, despite their atrocious record, have gained a little steam as of late. They narrowly lost to an impressive Eagles team two weeks ago and then beat the Giants last week. Derek Carr will play this week, but it's difficult to know which Derek Carr will show up given his recovery from back and knee injuries this season. Carr must appear to be good enough to go that the team feels comfortable bringing him back only 2 weeks after suffering his back injury. If Carr truly is good to go, this has to go in favor of the Raiders, but it'll be close. RAIDERS 28-24
GIANTS AT BRONCOS- The Giants are without all three of their heralded top wide receivers, and they weren't even having a good season when those guys were healthy. BRONCOS 34-10
COLTS AT TITANS- Marcus Mariota is reportedly going to be a game-time decision for Monday night, but Andrew Luck is only just getting in reps with the scout team offense and not a possibility to start this week. The Colts have found a little more success without Andrew Luck than the Titans have without Marcus Mariota, but the Colts defense struggles horribly on the road with 92 total points allowed in their only two road games thus far. TITANS 31-13
BEARS AT RAVENS- The Bears have no top level receiving threats, but they do have a solid defense. It is for this reason that the Ravens might initially struggle to develop a sizeable lead, but Chicago's offense won't be on the field long enough to give their defense a breather, and Baltimore's offense should be able to ultimately find a rhythm. If the Vikings can beat this team without their starting quarterback, running back, and top wide receiver, the Ravens should be able to beat them too. RAVENS 26-17
CAN THE RAVENS GO ON A RUN BEFORE THE BYE WEEK? LET'S HOPE SO. IF THEY'RE GOING TO STOCKPILE WINS, THIS WOULD BE THE STRETCH TO DO IT!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!
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