Saturday's games don't appear nearly as exciting as Sunday's playoff matchups this week. The chances that the Texans, who lost to the Patriots 27-0 with Tom Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo out earlier this season, have any legitimate shot of going into Foxboro and upsetting a rested Patriots team are slim to none. That matchup epitomizes the lopsided level of competition found in nearly every playoff game thus far. Fortunately for NFL fans, today's first game could end up being the tough fought battle that usually characterizes the playoffs.
SEAHAWKS AT FALCONS
This isn't the first time these teams will have met this season. The Falcons lost to the Seahawks 26-24 in Seattle in Week 6, but things will be quite a bit different over 3000 miles away in the Georgia Dome this time around. The Falcons are rested and boast the NFL's top scoring offense averaging a whopping 33.8 points per game. Not only have they put the most points on the board this season, but they've done it in a far more balanced fashion than we're used to seeing from Matt Ryan and company. The Falcons rank 5th in rushing yards per game and 3rd in passing yards per game. It's the potent rushing attack that will make it difficult for the Seahawks to simply pin their ears back and go after Matt Ryan, who is already quite mobile and evasive already.
The Seahawks dominated the Lions last weekend at home, but that shouldn't have shocked anyone. Not only are the Seahawks traditionally strong at home, but they were playing against a dome team with no historical road success in the playoffs in decades. The Seahawks, however, are 3-4-1 on the road this season, and their secondary no longer features Earl Thomas after the All-Pro safety went on injured reserve earlier this season.
People often say that defense travels well, but many great defensive teams rely on a home crowd to suffocate opposing offenses with noise. The Seahawks enjoy record-setting home crowd noise, and Seahawks fans pride themselves on being known collectively as the 12th man for their profound effect on the outcome of games. The Seahawks will enjoy no such advantage when they take the field later today.
The Seahawks appeared to have a ferocious offense last week with spectacular catches coming from relatively unknown back up receivers and a thunderous running game, but nothing about that performance can be applied to today's prediction. As I look over the Seahawk's last few road games I'm appalled by what I see. The Seahawks probably hit a peak when they went into Foxboro earlier this season and beat the Patriots, but they haven't flashed that level of dominance on the road since. Seattle has, in fact, been offensively atrocious on the road for quite some time.
Since beating the Patriots in Foxboro 9 weeks ago, the Seahawks have played 3 road games against the Buccaneers, Packers, and 49ers. The Seahawks lost to the Buccaneers 14-5, got dominated by the Packers 38-10, and barely squeaked by a terrible 49ers team 25-23. That means that the Seahawks have averaged just 13.33 points per game on the road in the second half of the regular season. That average might be a lot lower if their final road win hadn't been against the 49ers. The 49ers, after all, have the worst scoring defense in the league and allowed a depressing 30 points per game this season. The fact that the Seahawks couldn't even score as much as the 49ers allow on average is truly telling about Seattle's road offense.
The more I look at the drop-off in the Seahawks offense takes on the road, the more profound it appears. The Seahawks offense scored a commanding 28.375 points per game at home, but that number dropped to an alarming 15.875 on the road this season--that's nearly a 2 touchdown disparity! That's one of the most pronounced home-road disparities of any winning team in the NFL this year. It's difficult to know why that is the case, but it's a horrible sign for Seattle.
Now the Falcons don't boast a high powered defense. Atlanta ranks 25th in overall offensive yards allowed this season, 28th in passing yards allowed, and 17th in rushing yards allowed. Most importantly, the Falcons ranked 27th in points allowed, and that has been reflected in the close, high scoring games they've played this season. The Falcons have also allowed a staggering 27.75 points per game at home and went 5-3 in the Georgia Dome this season. The key is that the Falcons scored an average of exactly 35 points per game at home this season.
PREDICTION:
It's difficult to insist that this game will be a blowout because of all the close games the Falcons have played this season, but the Seahawks offense has been so perplexingly bad on the road for the past couple of months that it's difficult to imagine them being able to keep up with the NFL's most potent offense. The Falcons didn't exactly struggle to score on the Seahawks in Seattle earlier this season, and now they'll be facing that same Seahawks defense without the 12th man and without Earl Thomas. Seattle has stated that they aim to put big pressure on Matt Ryan, but it's difficult to imagine them having great success doing so with Devonta Freeman running the football. The Falcons defense may not be great, but it's around the middle of the pack against the run, and that should help them against a run-heavy Seahawks offense. The bottom line is that the Seahawks offense can't help their own defense out enough on the road to ultimately outscore the top offense in football. The Seahawks are a force at home, but just plain bad on the road in recent months.
FALCONS 27-20
TEXANS AT PATRIOTS
I really don't feel compelled to dignify this matchup with statistical analysis. Some people will points to the Texans defense as a reason that this game could be interesting, but those same people forget that the Patriots defense allowed fewer points than the Texans defense this season. The Patriots defense, in fact, allowed the fewest points of any team in the NFL this season. It is, therefore, difficult to give any unit on the Texans team any sort of advantage over any particular unit of the Patriots.
Let's not forget that the Patriots used their third string quarterback to beat this Texans team 27-0 in Week 3 of the regular season. This is a Texans team that only went 9-7 and still managed to win an incredibly weak AFC South division. Much like the Seahawks the Texans are not an offensive power on the road. The Texans, in fact, average a disturbing 12.25 points on the road, and they're about to go up against the NFL's stingiest defense. The Texans are 2-6 on the road this season with their only road wins coming against the Jaguars and Colts.
No team can go into Foxborough having only scored 98 points in 8 road games over the course of a regular season and expect to beat a Patriots team coming off of a bye week. This game will be fun to watch only for Patriots fans (and even they might get bored after a little while) and anyone who bet that the Patriots will win by even MORE than the current 15 point spread. Ironically, the Texans may once again see a Patriots backup quarterback, but it will only be because Bill Belichick decides to sit Brady as the man will undoubtedly be exhausted from beating the Texans mercilessly.
PREDICTION:
If a third string Patriots quarterback can lead New England to a 27-0 victory against the Texans, Tom Brady will likely put up nearly the same type of points before the 4th quarter. The Texans offense simply can't stay on the field long enough to give the Houston's defense a chance to breathe. The Texans won't even begin to score (if they score at all) until Bill starts to rest even many of his defensive starters in the 4th quarter. Gotta save some for next week. Just because I'm being cavalier in my assessment of this upcoming blowout doesn't mean the Patriots didn't spend every minute of the past two weeks zeroing in on how to ensure a decisive victory. Expect a focused Patriots team looking to take care of business before moving on to the next, presumably more challenging game.
PATRIOTS 34-10
As far as the Ravens are concerned, it appears as though the brain trust of Ozzie Newsome, Eric DeCosta, John Harbaugh, Steve Bisciotti and several others will adjourn to Florida to map out the gameplan for the off-season. The biggest off-season concerns will be bolstering the offensive line, adding a reliable veteran in the general mold of Derrick Mason, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Smith, finding serious cornerbacks via trade, the draft, or free agency, and figuring out how to create maneuverability in the salary cap by cutting, trading, or renegotiating with veterans.
The Ravens never truly had the pieces to make a push for a Super Bowl this season, but they certainly added a handful of necessary pieces. Eric Weddle and Mike Wallace added comparable veteran production to what the Ravens had with Torrey Smith and Ed Reed several years ago, and Baltimore can expect to get at least good 1-2 quality seasons out of each player. Pressure on Joe Flacco to work with and develop chemistry with his receivers should yield good results in the coming months. Joe didn't have an off-season to train in 2016 as he spent all of his time recovering from a torn ACL. Flacco will have far more time and pressure to correct habitual mistakes seen over the past season, and he'll be able to work with Marty Mornhinweg as well.
What we do know about this Ravens team is that it was able to be far more competitive on the road against many of the best teams in the league this year than a good number of the teams that actually made the playoffs. The 4-game losing streak of the first half of the season took away the ability of what ultimately turned out to be a reasonably good team to make the playoffs. When I met John Harbaugh last April and he took a brief look at this website, he asked me if I had been one of the writers to criticize harshly for a 5-11 season in 2015. I told him that no team could withstand that level of injuries and be successful, and I told him that sometimes a team needs to take one step back in order to take two steps forward.
The Ravens did take a couple of steps forward this season as they won 3 more games and improved their defense overall. By only winning 8 games, the Ravens set themselves up to pick in the middle of the draft order, and that may very well yield the next Ravens Pro Bowler whether it be an outstanding offensive lineman, a talented cornerback, an elite running back with breakaway speed, or a ferocious pass rushing outside linebacker.
Baltimore had a host of questions and a tremendous about of uncertainty following the 2015 season. This time around they no longer have to wonder about key veterans coming back from major injuries, and they know quite well that they're only a couple of plays in several games away from being 10-6, 11-5, or even 12-4. Their new strength coach, Steve Saunders, did an amazing job helping to make sure athletes took the preventative measures to reduce the chances of ACL tears, and surprise surprise....there were none to speak of in 2016. This team is in a good place going into 2017, and the organization has shown in the past how well it can do under pressure.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Saturday, January 14, 2017
Sunday, January 8, 2017
PURPLE NIGHTMARE WILDCARD PREDICTIONS: GIANTS AT PACKERS
GIANTS AT PACKERS
This is the first truly challenging prediction of the wildcard weekend. Both the Giants and the Packers have been on an absolute tear as of late, and Eli Manning has won his last two playoff games against the Packers in Green Bay. The questions that remain are whether or not the Giants defense is good enough to stifle Aaron Rodgers this time around and whether or not the Packers have enough defensively to slow down a dangerous stable of Giants receivers.
The Giants and Packers have both played close games against many of the same opponents, but the style of play has been profoundly different. Over the course of their current 6 game winning streak, the Packers have had to rely heavily on their prolific offense to beat opponents. The Packers have averaged 30.83 points per game during that 6-game stretch, and have allowed some teams to keep things close. The Packers only beat the Bears 30-27, and they only beat the Lions 31-24. Those games, however, were played on the road. The Packers defense fared much better in home games during the last 6 weeks. The Packers absolutely dominated the mighty Seahawks 38-10, they made a mockery of the Vikings elite defense 38-25, and they soundly defeated a Texans team that finished the season with the #1 ranked defense in the league 21-13.
The Vikings and Texans have little offense to speak of, and the Seahawks aren't nearly the same team, especially on the road, without Earl Thomas, but it's difficult to deny the fact that Aaron Rodgers has been utterly spectacular during the Packers push for a playoff berth. There was a point in this season where the Packers were thought to have virtually no chance of turning their season around, but Rodgers threw 40 touchdown passes with only 7 interceptions to erased all doubts. Meanwhile, Eli Manning has thrown for significantly fewer touchdowns (26) and over double the interceptions (16) but his defense has helped tremendously as they've won 9 of their last 11 games including victories over the Cowboys, Lions and Ravens. The Giants have been far worse on the road that at home, though, and that could be a major problem today.
The Giants already lost to the Packers in Green Bay earlier this season 23-16. That was the last game before the Giants began their hot streak, but it can't be ignored statistically. The Giants have, in fact, struggled hard against relatively competitive teams on the road. During their current hot streak, the only resounding road win the Giants had was 27-13 over the Browns. Other than that, the Giants narrowly defeated the Redskins 19-10, lost to the Eagles 24-19, and lost to the Steelers 24-14. The rest of their games over the last 11 weeks have been at home where the G-men have fared quite well. There's no question that this is a quality Giants team, but they're not the same road warriors that bullied their way through the playoffs in the 2011-2012 post-season.
The Packers on the other hand, are 6-2 at home this season. They had a rocky first couple of months of the regular season, but they haven't lost in 6 weeks. The Packers' mid-season losses to the Colts and Cowboys had far more to do with defensive injuries than anything else, and Rodgers simply had not yet found any sort of rhythm. Rodgers had little trouble moving the ball at home against the Giants, and as hot as he is right now, it's difficult he'll struggle tonight. I would love to be able to predict a Giants upset here because I dream about them upsetting the Patriots in the Super Bowl for a third time, but the Giants teams that achieved those miraculous upsets were literally better on the road than at home for one reason or another. This group hasn't demonstrated that trait.
I thought the Giants stats for this season would give me some kind of hope that they could upset the Packers, but that was only because I hadn't yet examined their road record. This game shouldn't be a blowout as the Giants still play great defense, but I doubt we'll see the Giants offense put on a fireworks display in the coldest stadium in the league...at night. We may have to wait another week for truly competitive playoff football.
PREDICTION:
Eli has shown in the past that he needs only to get INTO the playoffs to make a run, but he hasn't shown enough this season to suggest he can carry his team on the road. The x-factor in 2011 was the return of Osi Umeniyora to bolster the Giants' pass rushing capability just in time for the playoffs, but no such x-factor will be returning today. Aaron Rodgers may not be able to take his team on the road and beat the Cowboys, they could lose to a team such as the Falcons, but today he'll continue his late-season winning streak for one more game.
PACKERS 24-20
WHATEVER HAPPENS, LET'S HOPE FOR SOME EXCITEMENT!
AS ALWAYS!!
GO RAVENS!!!
This is the first truly challenging prediction of the wildcard weekend. Both the Giants and the Packers have been on an absolute tear as of late, and Eli Manning has won his last two playoff games against the Packers in Green Bay. The questions that remain are whether or not the Giants defense is good enough to stifle Aaron Rodgers this time around and whether or not the Packers have enough defensively to slow down a dangerous stable of Giants receivers.
The Giants and Packers have both played close games against many of the same opponents, but the style of play has been profoundly different. Over the course of their current 6 game winning streak, the Packers have had to rely heavily on their prolific offense to beat opponents. The Packers have averaged 30.83 points per game during that 6-game stretch, and have allowed some teams to keep things close. The Packers only beat the Bears 30-27, and they only beat the Lions 31-24. Those games, however, were played on the road. The Packers defense fared much better in home games during the last 6 weeks. The Packers absolutely dominated the mighty Seahawks 38-10, they made a mockery of the Vikings elite defense 38-25, and they soundly defeated a Texans team that finished the season with the #1 ranked defense in the league 21-13.
The Vikings and Texans have little offense to speak of, and the Seahawks aren't nearly the same team, especially on the road, without Earl Thomas, but it's difficult to deny the fact that Aaron Rodgers has been utterly spectacular during the Packers push for a playoff berth. There was a point in this season where the Packers were thought to have virtually no chance of turning their season around, but Rodgers threw 40 touchdown passes with only 7 interceptions to erased all doubts. Meanwhile, Eli Manning has thrown for significantly fewer touchdowns (26) and over double the interceptions (16) but his defense has helped tremendously as they've won 9 of their last 11 games including victories over the Cowboys, Lions and Ravens. The Giants have been far worse on the road that at home, though, and that could be a major problem today.
The Giants already lost to the Packers in Green Bay earlier this season 23-16. That was the last game before the Giants began their hot streak, but it can't be ignored statistically. The Giants have, in fact, struggled hard against relatively competitive teams on the road. During their current hot streak, the only resounding road win the Giants had was 27-13 over the Browns. Other than that, the Giants narrowly defeated the Redskins 19-10, lost to the Eagles 24-19, and lost to the Steelers 24-14. The rest of their games over the last 11 weeks have been at home where the G-men have fared quite well. There's no question that this is a quality Giants team, but they're not the same road warriors that bullied their way through the playoffs in the 2011-2012 post-season.
The Packers on the other hand, are 6-2 at home this season. They had a rocky first couple of months of the regular season, but they haven't lost in 6 weeks. The Packers' mid-season losses to the Colts and Cowboys had far more to do with defensive injuries than anything else, and Rodgers simply had not yet found any sort of rhythm. Rodgers had little trouble moving the ball at home against the Giants, and as hot as he is right now, it's difficult he'll struggle tonight. I would love to be able to predict a Giants upset here because I dream about them upsetting the Patriots in the Super Bowl for a third time, but the Giants teams that achieved those miraculous upsets were literally better on the road than at home for one reason or another. This group hasn't demonstrated that trait.
I thought the Giants stats for this season would give me some kind of hope that they could upset the Packers, but that was only because I hadn't yet examined their road record. This game shouldn't be a blowout as the Giants still play great defense, but I doubt we'll see the Giants offense put on a fireworks display in the coldest stadium in the league...at night. We may have to wait another week for truly competitive playoff football.
PREDICTION:
Eli has shown in the past that he needs only to get INTO the playoffs to make a run, but he hasn't shown enough this season to suggest he can carry his team on the road. The x-factor in 2011 was the return of Osi Umeniyora to bolster the Giants' pass rushing capability just in time for the playoffs, but no such x-factor will be returning today. Aaron Rodgers may not be able to take his team on the road and beat the Cowboys, they could lose to a team such as the Falcons, but today he'll continue his late-season winning streak for one more game.
PACKERS 24-20
WHATEVER HAPPENS, LET'S HOPE FOR SOME EXCITEMENT!
AS ALWAYS!!
GO RAVENS!!!
NFL WILDCARD PREDICTIONS: DOLPHINS AT STEELERS
DOLPHINS AT STEELERS
Analyzing the Steelers from a statistical standpoint has been tricky this season. The same could easily be said of the Dolphins as well. Key injuries for both teams have meant the difference between dominant performances and perplexing losses. With a healthy offensive line, the Dolphins appeared unstoppable as Jay Ajayi rumbled over teams such as the Steelers. With deep threats on the field to compliment Antontio Brown, the Steelers appeared offensively elite as Ben Roethlisberger skillfully distributes the ball to a handful of receivers to open things up for Le'veon Bell on the ground. Without a healthy offensive line for the Dolphins and a healthy receiving corps for the Steelers, however, both teams struggled mightily. The Steelers went on a 4 game losing streak and the Dolphins got absolutely blasted by a Ravens team clicking on all cylinders.
Well now both of these teams are as healthy as they're going to be leading into the wildcard round matchup in Pittsburgh, and the question is which team will be stronger than the other with their current available personnel. In order to determine this, we'll have to examine the personnel of each these teams in their last meeting as compared to what will take the field this weekend. We'll also have to examine how each team has done at home as opposed to on the road this season as the last meeting between these teams took place in a different venue with vastly different physical conditions.
The Steelers are 6-2 at home this season, and the Miami Dolphins went 4-4 on the road. The only home games the Steelers lost were against the two top teams in the league this season, the Patriots and Cowboys. Against the Patriots, the Steelers started Landry Jones in place of an injured Ben Roethlisberger and still only lost 27-16. Against the Cowboys, the Steelers lost in arguably the most explosive 4th quarter ending to a game of the season. The Steelers don't have many home losses from which to draw conclusions, and the loss to the Patriots can immediately be dismissed from a statistical standpoint because of the absence of Ben Roethlisberger. The loss to the Cowboys, however, is another story.
The Steelers' loss in Pittsburgh to the Dallas Cowboys demonstrated a fundamental weakness against teams with strong run-blocking offensive lines. To be fair, nearly every team except the Giants has fallen victim to the strength and talent of the Cowboys offensive line, and the Steelers played them as closely as any team in the league outside of New York. The Dolphins, when healthy, have an impressive offensive line of their own. Miami, in fact, hasn't lost a game this season when all five of their starting offensive linemen have been healthy. So will all five of those linemen be healthy today? Well that idea is impossible as starting center Mike Pouncey was placed on injured reserve this season. The Dolphins offensive line is, nevertheless, still mostly healthy. One would think that would point to a big day on the ground for the Dolphins reminiscent of their last matchup wherein Jay Ajayi rushed for over 200 yards. Not so fast.
One key defensive absence from the last meeting between these teams was speedy linebacker Ryan Shazier. Shazier's absence against the Dolphins earlier this season was an absolute game-changer. The biggest knock on Shazier during his career thus far has been his tendency to find himself on the injury report, but his health over the past two months has helped to solidify the Steelers front 7 against the run. One might ask how the Ravens were then able to essentially impose their will on the ground for a handful of drives in Pittsburgh two weeks ago, but that had to do with another major injury.
Stephon Tuitt is one of two starting defensive ends for the Steelers that played against the Ravens earlier this season and absolutely shut down Baltimore's running game in the first meeting. Since then, the Steelers lost their other starting defensive end, Cameron Heyward, and they played their second game against the Ravens without Tuitt who suffered from a sprained knee at the time. With two more weeks of rest, Tuitt has been a full participant at practice this week, and his presence will be a big factor in slowing the Dolphins' ground attack.
The Dolphins will be without Ryan Tannehill for the second straight week, but Tannehill's backup, Matt Moore, proved himself more than capable in the Dolphins' overtime win over the Bills in Buffalo on Christmas Eve Day. I actually believe Moore throws a better deep ball than Tannehill, and in that regard he may be better suited to take advantage of a potent array of speedy Dolphins receivers. The Steelers, despite the health of Shazier and Tuitt, will have to commit a lot to stopping Jay Ajayi. Ajayi's incredible burst and tackle-breaking physical running style makes him frustratingly difficult to bring down with only a single tackler. It is for this reason that the Dolphins should be able to put up a productive, balanced offensive attack in Pittsburgh today.
The problem for Miami will be that the Steelers' offensive attack will likely be more effective against a Dolphins' secondary without its top cornerback, Byron Maxwell. The Steelers didn't exactly light up the Ravens for the first three quarters on Christmas Day, but they embarrassed Baltimore with 3 forth quarter touchdowns when running a hurry-up offense. That Baltimore defense, despite it's flaws, was simply better than that of the Dolphins--especially without Byron Maxwell. The Dolphins linebackers struggle in pass coverage, and the tandem of Cameron Wake and Ndamukong Suh haven't nearly been dominant enough as of late to suggest they can consistently pressure Ben Roethlisberger. Suh had a red-hot start to the season with 5 passes defensed, 6 tackles for a loss, and 2.5 sacks though the first 10 weeks of the season. Through the last 6 games, however, Suh has one pass defenses, 1 tackle for a loss, and another 2.5 sacks. The sack total isn't terrible, but Suh has been far less of an all-around threat. Through Cameron Wake's first 10 weeks he had a whopping 10 sacks, but over the course of his last 6 weeks Wake has totaled only 1.5.
It's possible that both Wake and Suh have simply become worn down by the lengthy season, but the more likely reason behind a drop-off in production from these defenders is a banged up Dolphins secondary. With key members of the secondary absent for roughly the last month and a half of the season, opposing quarterbacks have been able to get rid of the football much quicker and, thus, neutralize the pass rush. The Steelers' offensive line has been vastly improved this season, and Pittsburgh has easily enough receiving/rushing threats to whom Ben can distribute the ball quickly and keep Suh and Wake at bay.
More significant to this game than all other injuries to personnel is the fact that Ben Roethlisberger will be healthy at kickoff. Ben tore his meniscus during the last meeting between these teams and despite the fact that he returned to the game, he was unquestionably hobbled by the injury. If Ben doesn't incur another injury today, the Dolphins will have a tall task stopping him with their defensive personnel. The temperature in Pittsburgh is well below freezing today, and that should make conditions difficult for a Dolphins team that is used to playing in one of the consistently warmest climates in the country.
There would be nothing I'd love more on this cold January Sunday than to be proven totally wrong by the Dolphins, but there's simply too much working against them. The Steelers are coming off of a virtual bye week as they rested their starters last week and still managed to beat the Brows. The Dolphins should be able to move the football, but it's unreasonable to expect them to be able to topple the Steelers in Pittsburgh with a backup quarterback and a banged up secondary. The Steelers have the edge offensively and they have a big advantage defensively. It's simply a bad matchup for Miami.
PREDICTION:
I won't discount the possibility of major injuries in extreme cold weather that could greatly affect the outcome of this game, but there's simply no way to predict them. The Steelers simply appear healthier and better prepared for this matchup. Jay Ajayi should rush for over 100 yards, but he won't rush for 200. Rushing for 200 yards may not even be enough to win this game. The Dolphins would need a major aerial assault on a Steelers secondary that has improved greatly over the course of this season. This is a pick-your-poison situation for the Dolphins. If they commit to stopping Le'veon Bell, Ben will light them up through the air. If they drop everyone back into pass coverage to stop Antonio Brown and company, Le'veon Bell will gash them on the ground.
STEELERS 33-21
STAY TUNED FOR MY SUNDAY NFC PREDICTION!
LET'S HOPE FOR GREAT PLAYOFF FOOTBALL
AND AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!
GO GET BETTER SO YOU TOO CAN PARTAKE IN PLAYOFF FOOTBALL...
Analyzing the Steelers from a statistical standpoint has been tricky this season. The same could easily be said of the Dolphins as well. Key injuries for both teams have meant the difference between dominant performances and perplexing losses. With a healthy offensive line, the Dolphins appeared unstoppable as Jay Ajayi rumbled over teams such as the Steelers. With deep threats on the field to compliment Antontio Brown, the Steelers appeared offensively elite as Ben Roethlisberger skillfully distributes the ball to a handful of receivers to open things up for Le'veon Bell on the ground. Without a healthy offensive line for the Dolphins and a healthy receiving corps for the Steelers, however, both teams struggled mightily. The Steelers went on a 4 game losing streak and the Dolphins got absolutely blasted by a Ravens team clicking on all cylinders.
Well now both of these teams are as healthy as they're going to be leading into the wildcard round matchup in Pittsburgh, and the question is which team will be stronger than the other with their current available personnel. In order to determine this, we'll have to examine the personnel of each these teams in their last meeting as compared to what will take the field this weekend. We'll also have to examine how each team has done at home as opposed to on the road this season as the last meeting between these teams took place in a different venue with vastly different physical conditions.
The Steelers are 6-2 at home this season, and the Miami Dolphins went 4-4 on the road. The only home games the Steelers lost were against the two top teams in the league this season, the Patriots and Cowboys. Against the Patriots, the Steelers started Landry Jones in place of an injured Ben Roethlisberger and still only lost 27-16. Against the Cowboys, the Steelers lost in arguably the most explosive 4th quarter ending to a game of the season. The Steelers don't have many home losses from which to draw conclusions, and the loss to the Patriots can immediately be dismissed from a statistical standpoint because of the absence of Ben Roethlisberger. The loss to the Cowboys, however, is another story.
The Steelers' loss in Pittsburgh to the Dallas Cowboys demonstrated a fundamental weakness against teams with strong run-blocking offensive lines. To be fair, nearly every team except the Giants has fallen victim to the strength and talent of the Cowboys offensive line, and the Steelers played them as closely as any team in the league outside of New York. The Dolphins, when healthy, have an impressive offensive line of their own. Miami, in fact, hasn't lost a game this season when all five of their starting offensive linemen have been healthy. So will all five of those linemen be healthy today? Well that idea is impossible as starting center Mike Pouncey was placed on injured reserve this season. The Dolphins offensive line is, nevertheless, still mostly healthy. One would think that would point to a big day on the ground for the Dolphins reminiscent of their last matchup wherein Jay Ajayi rushed for over 200 yards. Not so fast.
One key defensive absence from the last meeting between these teams was speedy linebacker Ryan Shazier. Shazier's absence against the Dolphins earlier this season was an absolute game-changer. The biggest knock on Shazier during his career thus far has been his tendency to find himself on the injury report, but his health over the past two months has helped to solidify the Steelers front 7 against the run. One might ask how the Ravens were then able to essentially impose their will on the ground for a handful of drives in Pittsburgh two weeks ago, but that had to do with another major injury.
Stephon Tuitt is one of two starting defensive ends for the Steelers that played against the Ravens earlier this season and absolutely shut down Baltimore's running game in the first meeting. Since then, the Steelers lost their other starting defensive end, Cameron Heyward, and they played their second game against the Ravens without Tuitt who suffered from a sprained knee at the time. With two more weeks of rest, Tuitt has been a full participant at practice this week, and his presence will be a big factor in slowing the Dolphins' ground attack.
The Dolphins will be without Ryan Tannehill for the second straight week, but Tannehill's backup, Matt Moore, proved himself more than capable in the Dolphins' overtime win over the Bills in Buffalo on Christmas Eve Day. I actually believe Moore throws a better deep ball than Tannehill, and in that regard he may be better suited to take advantage of a potent array of speedy Dolphins receivers. The Steelers, despite the health of Shazier and Tuitt, will have to commit a lot to stopping Jay Ajayi. Ajayi's incredible burst and tackle-breaking physical running style makes him frustratingly difficult to bring down with only a single tackler. It is for this reason that the Dolphins should be able to put up a productive, balanced offensive attack in Pittsburgh today.
The problem for Miami will be that the Steelers' offensive attack will likely be more effective against a Dolphins' secondary without its top cornerback, Byron Maxwell. The Steelers didn't exactly light up the Ravens for the first three quarters on Christmas Day, but they embarrassed Baltimore with 3 forth quarter touchdowns when running a hurry-up offense. That Baltimore defense, despite it's flaws, was simply better than that of the Dolphins--especially without Byron Maxwell. The Dolphins linebackers struggle in pass coverage, and the tandem of Cameron Wake and Ndamukong Suh haven't nearly been dominant enough as of late to suggest they can consistently pressure Ben Roethlisberger. Suh had a red-hot start to the season with 5 passes defensed, 6 tackles for a loss, and 2.5 sacks though the first 10 weeks of the season. Through the last 6 games, however, Suh has one pass defenses, 1 tackle for a loss, and another 2.5 sacks. The sack total isn't terrible, but Suh has been far less of an all-around threat. Through Cameron Wake's first 10 weeks he had a whopping 10 sacks, but over the course of his last 6 weeks Wake has totaled only 1.5.
It's possible that both Wake and Suh have simply become worn down by the lengthy season, but the more likely reason behind a drop-off in production from these defenders is a banged up Dolphins secondary. With key members of the secondary absent for roughly the last month and a half of the season, opposing quarterbacks have been able to get rid of the football much quicker and, thus, neutralize the pass rush. The Steelers' offensive line has been vastly improved this season, and Pittsburgh has easily enough receiving/rushing threats to whom Ben can distribute the ball quickly and keep Suh and Wake at bay.
More significant to this game than all other injuries to personnel is the fact that Ben Roethlisberger will be healthy at kickoff. Ben tore his meniscus during the last meeting between these teams and despite the fact that he returned to the game, he was unquestionably hobbled by the injury. If Ben doesn't incur another injury today, the Dolphins will have a tall task stopping him with their defensive personnel. The temperature in Pittsburgh is well below freezing today, and that should make conditions difficult for a Dolphins team that is used to playing in one of the consistently warmest climates in the country.
There would be nothing I'd love more on this cold January Sunday than to be proven totally wrong by the Dolphins, but there's simply too much working against them. The Steelers are coming off of a virtual bye week as they rested their starters last week and still managed to beat the Brows. The Dolphins should be able to move the football, but it's unreasonable to expect them to be able to topple the Steelers in Pittsburgh with a backup quarterback and a banged up secondary. The Steelers have the edge offensively and they have a big advantage defensively. It's simply a bad matchup for Miami.
PREDICTION:
I won't discount the possibility of major injuries in extreme cold weather that could greatly affect the outcome of this game, but there's simply no way to predict them. The Steelers simply appear healthier and better prepared for this matchup. Jay Ajayi should rush for over 100 yards, but he won't rush for 200. Rushing for 200 yards may not even be enough to win this game. The Dolphins would need a major aerial assault on a Steelers secondary that has improved greatly over the course of this season. This is a pick-your-poison situation for the Dolphins. If they commit to stopping Le'veon Bell, Ben will light them up through the air. If they drop everyone back into pass coverage to stop Antonio Brown and company, Le'veon Bell will gash them on the ground.
STEELERS 33-21
STAY TUNED FOR MY SUNDAY NFC PREDICTION!
LET'S HOPE FOR GREAT PLAYOFF FOOTBALL
AND AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!
GO GET BETTER SO YOU TOO CAN PARTAKE IN PLAYOFF FOOTBALL...
Saturday, January 7, 2017
NFL WILDCARD PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS: SATURDAY GAMES
RAIDERS AT TEXANS
Seldom do we see a 9-7 team secure homefield advantage over a team that finished the season 12-4. The Houston Texans won their division and, therefore, finished with a higher playoff seed than a Raiders team that was ultimately edged by the Chiefs for the AFC West division crown. A strong case could be made that final regular season record, not a divisional crown, should be the sole decider in playoff seeding, but that's simply how the system works right now.
To add insult to literally injury for the Raiders, Oakland's starting quarterback, Derek Carr, broke his leg and will not suit up for the playoffs. Carr should have been in top contention for the league MVP award given his fantastic performance this season coupled with the incredible drop-off in performance his team experienced in his absence last week against a Broncos team that the Raiders previously soundly defeated 30-20 with Carr at the helm. Carr's replacement, Connor Cook, had never started a single NFL game prior to last week. The Raiders, as a matter of fact, lost to the Broncos 24-6 in a game that WOULD have given Oakland the division crown had they won.
One has but to look at Cook's performance last week to see the profound drop-off the Raider's offense experiences in Carr's absence. Connor Cook finished with 150 passing yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Derek Carr, by contrast, averaged 262 passing yards per game over the course of the season, and he led his offense to a top 10 ranking in both yardage and points scored. Let's be clear though about one point though: the Raiders didn't simply lose because Connor Cook isn't great. The Raiders were blown out because the Raiders have little defense to speak of beyond Khalil Mack, and because they can't lean on any sort of running game without Carr to spread defenses out with his receivers. Carr, in fact, may have been able to make a much better case for MVP in the minds of those voting for the award if his defense had been slightly better in order to give him more possessions and offensive opportunities per game. Sadly for Oakland, the Raiders run defense ranked 23rd in the league and their pass defense ranked 24th. Oakland's defense, ironically, benefitted heavily from their offense's success in that it helped to keep them off the field. The Raiders defense could have easily been ranked much lower if it weren't for Derek Carr's talent and execution.
The Houston Texans aren't exactly in love with their starting quarterback. Brock Osweiler has been nothing short of a disappointment in the 2016 season and has nowhere NEAR justified his $72 million payday. The Texans, however, finished the season with the highest rated defense in the league in terms of average yards allowed per game and 11th in the league in points allowed per game. That defensive ranking is made all the more impressive by the fact that the Texans offense finished the season 29th in the NFL in yards per game and 28th in points scored. The Texans did excel in one particular offensive area; they ran the football quite well. Houston finished ranked 8th in rushing yards per game this season, and their ability to both run the football and play hard-nosed defense should help them just as much as their homefield advantage in this game.
Oakland finished the season with an even higher ranked rushing offense than Houston. The Raiders averaged roughly 9 more yards per game than the Texans, but much of that had to do with the Raiders' aforementioned ability to spread out opposing defenses with their aerial attack and open things up for the run. Without Carr last week, the Raiders were only able to rush for 57 yards against Denver. When the Raiders faced the Broncos earlier this season with Derek Carr leading the charge, Oakland rushed for a whopping 218 yards. Even when Carr doesn't throw for incredible yardage, his mobility and his effectiveness as a passer creates far more opportunities for his team's rushing attack.
This is a rather disappointing matchup for the playoffs. The Raiders' reliance on a currently injured quarterback means almost certain victory for the Texans, but the Texans have little chance to advance beyond a win this week. The AFC playoff field features at least 2-3 teams that have little to no shot of unseating the Patriots in Foxborough, and won't exactly help the NFL in a season where ratings have been uncharacteristically low for one reason or another. Let's hope the NFC offers a decent deal more excitement.
PREDICTION:
The Raiders will struggle to move the ball consistently against one of the top defenses in the league. Oakland only barely edged Houston in the last meeting between these teams, and that was with a healthy Derek Carr. Expect the Texans to lean on their rushing attack, and expect a decent performance from DeAndre Hopkins.
TEXANS 23-13
LIONS AT SEAHAWKS
Now THIS is a far more difficult matchup to predict. The Lions made the playoffs at 9-7, but they both started and ended the season on three-game losing streaks. Meanwhile the Seahawks defense simply hasn't been the same since all-pro safety Earl Thomas went on injured reserve several weeks ago as was evidenced by the fact that Seattle only barely beat the bottom-feeding 49ers 25-23 in the final week of the regular season.
In order to correctly predict this game we must discard all irrelevant statistical information. For the Seahwaks, that means determining exactly what kind of a drop-off the Seahawks defense experienced with the loss of Earl Thomas, and then it may possibly mean totally ignoring defensive statistics from all the games in which he played this season. Earl Thomas played in 11 of the first 12 games of the season, and during that time the Seahawks went 8-2-1. Thomas himself collected 48 tackles, 2 interceptions, and 10 passes defensed. Thomas missed games late in the season against the Buccaneers, Packers, Rams, Cardinals, and 49ers, and the Seahawks went 2-3 in those games. More troubling was how poorly the Seahawks defense performed without Earl Thomas in games against foes they had already handled easily in earlier games.
The Seahawks beat the 49ers resoundingly 37-18 early in the season, but barely squeaked by San Francisco 25-23 last week. In last week's game, the 49ers actually edged the Seahawks in time of possession by roughly one minute, and they converted on 4th down in two of their 3 attempts. The 49ers were successful in scoring in all three of their trips into the redzone, and kept the game incredibly close despite turning the ball over twice. In Earl Thomas' absence, a nearly useless Colin Kaepernick threw for 215 passing yards. With Earl Thomas present earlier in the season, the 49ers were held to 119 passing yards and the Seahawks dominated the time of possession by roughly 11 minutes--and that was even after Russell Wilson exited the game with an injury.
The more profound and telling contrast between Earl Thomas' presence and absence can be seen in the Seahawks' two games against the Cardinals this season. Thomas was present for the Seahawks' 6-6 overtime tie in Arizona in the middle of the season. With Thomas patrolling the defensive backfield, Carson Palmer was held entirely out of the endzone. Without Thomas, however, things were quite different. The Seahawks lost to the Cardinals a startling 34-31 after the Seahawks lost their starting free safety. Not only did the Seahawks lose their first home game of the season, but Earl Thomas' absence allowed the Cardinals to put up 17 passing first downs and 20 forth quarter points. The Cardinals also dominated time of possession by roughly 7 minutes, and outscored the Seahawks 14-3 in the first half of the game.
Earl Thomas' presence both helps take away opposing receiving threats and gives Seahawks pass rushers more opportunity to get to opposing quarterbacks. With Thomas the Seahawks sacked Carson Palmer 4 times and pressured him heavily all game. Without Thomas, the Seahawks only sacked Carson Palmer once. Without their star safety, the Seahawks had to commit more manpower from their linebacker corps to try to stop the Cardinals passing attack, but in doing so the Seahawks gave up much of their ability to stop the Cardinals on the ground and they allowed three rushing touchdowns. Mind you--all of this happened at home--in Seattle.
Now the Lions haven't exactly been road warriors. Their only road victories came against the Colts, Vikings, and Saints, and all three of those teams have struggled this season. One might say a 3-5 road record would spell doom for a team heading into Seattle in the playoffs, but let's not forget for one second assume that this game will be a rout without arguably the most important member of the legion of boom missing. The Seahawks are 7-1 at home on the year, but their only home loss came since Earl Thomas' season-ending injury. The Lions also performed better against a common opponent recently. Detroit lost 31-24 in a tight game against the Packers to finish the regular season. The Seahawks, on the other hand, were blown out by the Packers 38-10 only one month ago.
The Lions haven't exactly had an easy schedule to finish their season. They faced the Packers, Giants, and Cowboys, and those are literally the hottest teams in the NFC and arguably the league. Neither the Seahawks nor the Lions are strong enough to go on the road and beat the Giants, Cowboys, or Packers, but this should actually prove a fairly evenly matched game. Seattle and Detroit have averaged almost exactly the same number of points per game this season, and neither team has played particularly impressive defense as of late.
PREDICTIONS:
Seattle's defense isn't nearly the same as it was for most of the regular season without Earl Thomas, but Russell Wilson should be able to put together some critical drives to put this game away. The biggest weakness the of the Lions will be their dome team identity. Two of the Lions three road wins this season were inside dome stadiums. There are few harsher outdoor road venues than Seattle in the playoffs.
SEATTLE 27-23
Most Ravens fans feel justifiably deflated after a 4th quarter collapse on Christmas Day to the Steelers, but no one should feel particularly upset about losing to the Bengals last week. It's understandable that many felt the Ravens should give Steve Smith Sr. one last triumphant win for his career, but it's more important for the team that the highest draft position is attained. The only way the Ravens will make it back to the playoffs is an incredibly strong draft position as they organization only has so much maneuvering they can achieve through free agency because of a relatively tight salary cap situation. Corner, offensive line, wide receiver, and pass rusher need to be the major points of emphasis in the draft. With the 16th spot, the Ravens will hopefully be able address most of those needs and fill any other gaps with reasonably priced veteran free agents. This team is, despite what many think, trending in the right direction, but they need a strong draft, and losing to the Bengals was the best way to ensure that.
LET'S HOPE THE PLAYOFFS ARE EXCITING!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!! (GO GET SOME CORNERS!!)
Seldom do we see a 9-7 team secure homefield advantage over a team that finished the season 12-4. The Houston Texans won their division and, therefore, finished with a higher playoff seed than a Raiders team that was ultimately edged by the Chiefs for the AFC West division crown. A strong case could be made that final regular season record, not a divisional crown, should be the sole decider in playoff seeding, but that's simply how the system works right now.
To add insult to literally injury for the Raiders, Oakland's starting quarterback, Derek Carr, broke his leg and will not suit up for the playoffs. Carr should have been in top contention for the league MVP award given his fantastic performance this season coupled with the incredible drop-off in performance his team experienced in his absence last week against a Broncos team that the Raiders previously soundly defeated 30-20 with Carr at the helm. Carr's replacement, Connor Cook, had never started a single NFL game prior to last week. The Raiders, as a matter of fact, lost to the Broncos 24-6 in a game that WOULD have given Oakland the division crown had they won.
One has but to look at Cook's performance last week to see the profound drop-off the Raider's offense experiences in Carr's absence. Connor Cook finished with 150 passing yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Derek Carr, by contrast, averaged 262 passing yards per game over the course of the season, and he led his offense to a top 10 ranking in both yardage and points scored. Let's be clear though about one point though: the Raiders didn't simply lose because Connor Cook isn't great. The Raiders were blown out because the Raiders have little defense to speak of beyond Khalil Mack, and because they can't lean on any sort of running game without Carr to spread defenses out with his receivers. Carr, in fact, may have been able to make a much better case for MVP in the minds of those voting for the award if his defense had been slightly better in order to give him more possessions and offensive opportunities per game. Sadly for Oakland, the Raiders run defense ranked 23rd in the league and their pass defense ranked 24th. Oakland's defense, ironically, benefitted heavily from their offense's success in that it helped to keep them off the field. The Raiders defense could have easily been ranked much lower if it weren't for Derek Carr's talent and execution.
The Houston Texans aren't exactly in love with their starting quarterback. Brock Osweiler has been nothing short of a disappointment in the 2016 season and has nowhere NEAR justified his $72 million payday. The Texans, however, finished the season with the highest rated defense in the league in terms of average yards allowed per game and 11th in the league in points allowed per game. That defensive ranking is made all the more impressive by the fact that the Texans offense finished the season 29th in the NFL in yards per game and 28th in points scored. The Texans did excel in one particular offensive area; they ran the football quite well. Houston finished ranked 8th in rushing yards per game this season, and their ability to both run the football and play hard-nosed defense should help them just as much as their homefield advantage in this game.
Oakland finished the season with an even higher ranked rushing offense than Houston. The Raiders averaged roughly 9 more yards per game than the Texans, but much of that had to do with the Raiders' aforementioned ability to spread out opposing defenses with their aerial attack and open things up for the run. Without Carr last week, the Raiders were only able to rush for 57 yards against Denver. When the Raiders faced the Broncos earlier this season with Derek Carr leading the charge, Oakland rushed for a whopping 218 yards. Even when Carr doesn't throw for incredible yardage, his mobility and his effectiveness as a passer creates far more opportunities for his team's rushing attack.
This is a rather disappointing matchup for the playoffs. The Raiders' reliance on a currently injured quarterback means almost certain victory for the Texans, but the Texans have little chance to advance beyond a win this week. The AFC playoff field features at least 2-3 teams that have little to no shot of unseating the Patriots in Foxborough, and won't exactly help the NFL in a season where ratings have been uncharacteristically low for one reason or another. Let's hope the NFC offers a decent deal more excitement.
PREDICTION:
The Raiders will struggle to move the ball consistently against one of the top defenses in the league. Oakland only barely edged Houston in the last meeting between these teams, and that was with a healthy Derek Carr. Expect the Texans to lean on their rushing attack, and expect a decent performance from DeAndre Hopkins.
TEXANS 23-13
LIONS AT SEAHAWKS
Now THIS is a far more difficult matchup to predict. The Lions made the playoffs at 9-7, but they both started and ended the season on three-game losing streaks. Meanwhile the Seahawks defense simply hasn't been the same since all-pro safety Earl Thomas went on injured reserve several weeks ago as was evidenced by the fact that Seattle only barely beat the bottom-feeding 49ers 25-23 in the final week of the regular season.
In order to correctly predict this game we must discard all irrelevant statistical information. For the Seahwaks, that means determining exactly what kind of a drop-off the Seahawks defense experienced with the loss of Earl Thomas, and then it may possibly mean totally ignoring defensive statistics from all the games in which he played this season. Earl Thomas played in 11 of the first 12 games of the season, and during that time the Seahawks went 8-2-1. Thomas himself collected 48 tackles, 2 interceptions, and 10 passes defensed. Thomas missed games late in the season against the Buccaneers, Packers, Rams, Cardinals, and 49ers, and the Seahawks went 2-3 in those games. More troubling was how poorly the Seahawks defense performed without Earl Thomas in games against foes they had already handled easily in earlier games.
The Seahawks beat the 49ers resoundingly 37-18 early in the season, but barely squeaked by San Francisco 25-23 last week. In last week's game, the 49ers actually edged the Seahawks in time of possession by roughly one minute, and they converted on 4th down in two of their 3 attempts. The 49ers were successful in scoring in all three of their trips into the redzone, and kept the game incredibly close despite turning the ball over twice. In Earl Thomas' absence, a nearly useless Colin Kaepernick threw for 215 passing yards. With Earl Thomas present earlier in the season, the 49ers were held to 119 passing yards and the Seahawks dominated the time of possession by roughly 11 minutes--and that was even after Russell Wilson exited the game with an injury.
The more profound and telling contrast between Earl Thomas' presence and absence can be seen in the Seahawks' two games against the Cardinals this season. Thomas was present for the Seahawks' 6-6 overtime tie in Arizona in the middle of the season. With Thomas patrolling the defensive backfield, Carson Palmer was held entirely out of the endzone. Without Thomas, however, things were quite different. The Seahawks lost to the Cardinals a startling 34-31 after the Seahawks lost their starting free safety. Not only did the Seahawks lose their first home game of the season, but Earl Thomas' absence allowed the Cardinals to put up 17 passing first downs and 20 forth quarter points. The Cardinals also dominated time of possession by roughly 7 minutes, and outscored the Seahawks 14-3 in the first half of the game.
Earl Thomas' presence both helps take away opposing receiving threats and gives Seahawks pass rushers more opportunity to get to opposing quarterbacks. With Thomas the Seahawks sacked Carson Palmer 4 times and pressured him heavily all game. Without Thomas, the Seahawks only sacked Carson Palmer once. Without their star safety, the Seahawks had to commit more manpower from their linebacker corps to try to stop the Cardinals passing attack, but in doing so the Seahawks gave up much of their ability to stop the Cardinals on the ground and they allowed three rushing touchdowns. Mind you--all of this happened at home--in Seattle.
Now the Lions haven't exactly been road warriors. Their only road victories came against the Colts, Vikings, and Saints, and all three of those teams have struggled this season. One might say a 3-5 road record would spell doom for a team heading into Seattle in the playoffs, but let's not forget for one second assume that this game will be a rout without arguably the most important member of the legion of boom missing. The Seahawks are 7-1 at home on the year, but their only home loss came since Earl Thomas' season-ending injury. The Lions also performed better against a common opponent recently. Detroit lost 31-24 in a tight game against the Packers to finish the regular season. The Seahawks, on the other hand, were blown out by the Packers 38-10 only one month ago.
The Lions haven't exactly had an easy schedule to finish their season. They faced the Packers, Giants, and Cowboys, and those are literally the hottest teams in the NFC and arguably the league. Neither the Seahawks nor the Lions are strong enough to go on the road and beat the Giants, Cowboys, or Packers, but this should actually prove a fairly evenly matched game. Seattle and Detroit have averaged almost exactly the same number of points per game this season, and neither team has played particularly impressive defense as of late.
PREDICTIONS:
Seattle's defense isn't nearly the same as it was for most of the regular season without Earl Thomas, but Russell Wilson should be able to put together some critical drives to put this game away. The biggest weakness the of the Lions will be their dome team identity. Two of the Lions three road wins this season were inside dome stadiums. There are few harsher outdoor road venues than Seattle in the playoffs.
SEATTLE 27-23
Most Ravens fans feel justifiably deflated after a 4th quarter collapse on Christmas Day to the Steelers, but no one should feel particularly upset about losing to the Bengals last week. It's understandable that many felt the Ravens should give Steve Smith Sr. one last triumphant win for his career, but it's more important for the team that the highest draft position is attained. The only way the Ravens will make it back to the playoffs is an incredibly strong draft position as they organization only has so much maneuvering they can achieve through free agency because of a relatively tight salary cap situation. Corner, offensive line, wide receiver, and pass rusher need to be the major points of emphasis in the draft. With the 16th spot, the Ravens will hopefully be able address most of those needs and fill any other gaps with reasonably priced veteran free agents. This team is, despite what many think, trending in the right direction, but they need a strong draft, and losing to the Bengals was the best way to ensure that.
LET'S HOPE THE PLAYOFFS ARE EXCITING!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!! (GO GET SOME CORNERS!!)
Saturday, December 24, 2016
RAVENS-STEELERS REMATCH ANALYSIS
I understand why it is that the Pittsburgh Steelers have historically been given high praise from members of sports media and football fans across the nation. The team has won a league-leading 6 Super Bowl titles including 2 in the last decade. They currently possess some of the flashiest fantasy football weapons in the league including Ben Roethlisberger, Le'veon Bell, and Antonio Brown. Pittsburgh has looked so offensively dominant for stretches of every season over the last half decade that it's easy for analysts and fans to go overboard in their assessment of the state of the franchise overall. The Steelers, after all, have won only a single playoff game in the past 5 seasons, and they're 3-9 versus the Ravens during that very same stretch. Maybe it was Flacco's difficulties for the first three years of his career against black and yellow that gave a lasting impression of the Steelers' dominance over Baltimore in the AFC North, or maybe people pay far too much attention to fantasy football numbers. For one reason or another, the struggles of the Steelers over the last half decade simply haven't registered in the minds of many across the nation.
No one is saying the Steelers haven't had talent. They absolutely have elite talent at certain positions. Their issue has been keeping that talent healthy and out of trouble long enough to make any sort of post-season run. There has also been a profound shift in exactly how the team has been built. Pittsburgh used to have one of the league's fiercest defenses in the previous decade and even into the first year or two of this decade. As the old defensive guard disappeared one by one, the Steelers found themselves leaning more heavily on a pass-happy offense compared to the hard-nosed ground attack that guided them through the post-season for so many years. They hoped to overcome defensive weaknesses with offensive fireworks, and for much of each regular season, that seemed to work. The problem is that flawed defense and over-reliance on an aerial attack still isn't, even in this so-called "quarterback driven league", a recipe for post-season success. Seldom does a team make a deep playoff run without the ability to play hard-nosed defense and run the football.
I know what many of you are likely thinking at this point. The Steelers have an elite running back who just rushed for over 200 yards in the snow against the Bills, so they obviously have the ability to run the football. They also have a handful of rising young defensive players who have helped the Steelers defense ascend to an 8th place ranking late in the season. That ranking, however, is deceiving as it pertains to Sunday's game against the Ravens because it fails to take into account some major injuries to defensive staff as well as the effect the offense has had on keeping the defense off the field.
When the Ravens faced Pittsburgh in Week 7 the Steelers were actually fairly healthy on the defensive side of the ball. Both Cameron Heyward and Ryan Shazier were back from injuries, and they spent most of the day stuffing the Ravens rushing attack. Heyward has since been put on injured reserve, and the other starting defensive end opposite Heyward, Stephon Tuitt, did not practice all week as he has dealt with a knee injury. Tuitt's backup was also injured last week, and the team may find themselves relying on 3rd and 4th string talent up front against the likes of Marshal Yanda and Ronnie Stanley. The Steelers are on a 5-game winning streak, but that streak also coincides with the return of deep-threat tight end Ladarius Green. Ladarius Green has been listed as doubtful to play against the Ravens, and so has the burner wide receiver Sammie Coates. That leaves the Steelers with identical receiving personnel to what they possessed during their mid-season 0-4 stretch.
Sammie Coates was a productive deep threat through the Steelers 4-1 beginning to the season. He averaged 84.2 receiving yards per game during that stretch, but has been slowed and mostly sidelined since Week 6. For the next four games, the Steelers played without a healthy Ladarius Green or Sammie Coates to stretch the field and take pressure off of Antonio Brown, and Pittsburgh did nothing but lose. The Steelers got their first win of their current winning streak against a hopeless Browns team, but even that wasn't particularly convincing from an offensive standpoint as Pittsburgh only led the Browns 17-9 in the 4th quarter before a late pick-6 helped put the game out of reach for the Tomlin and his guys. Ladarius Green was not surprisingly not quite yet healthy and, thus, didn't see a single target in the win over the Browns despite being listed on the active roster that day.
It wasn't until the following week against the Colts that Green finally got healthy and made two critical deep catches to help the Steelers pull away from Indianapolis on Thanksgiving night. The speedy tight end followed that performance up with a breakout game against the Giants with 110 receiving yards and a touchdown against the then red-hot Giants. Green only caught two passes against the Bills the following week, but that game was played in driving snow and Big Ben was horrendously off the mark that day with 3 interceptions. Last week against the Bengals, Ladarius Green caught 5 passes for 72 yards, and was incredibly critical in a game in which the Steelers kicked 6 field goals and won by 4 points.
By now you should have realized a trend. When the Steelers have a legitimate deep threat to compliment Antonio Brown, they win football games. Early in the season, that deep threat was Sammie Coates, and then he became injured and they couldn't stop losing. Later in the season Ladarius Green finally became healthy enough to play and the Steelers began to win again. Now neither man is healthy just in time for one of the most important divisional matchups of the season. The Steelers ultimately did find a way to beat the Bengals late last week even after Green went down with a concussion, but Sammie Coates' hamstring injury in practice only a couple of days ago means that the Steelers will once against be without both players.
You might be thinking at this point that the Steelers will still beat the Ravens because Le'veon Bell is such a fantastic running back, right? He is quite good, but he hasn't exactly found wild success against the Ravens, and he certainly didn't do well against them earlier this season. Le'veon Bell is a strong, shifty, speedy running back, but much of his success comes from the fact that teams typically have to account for so many other weapons in the Steelers' offensive arsenal. The Steelers offense, for example, isn't typically able to pound the run when teams stack the box. Bell's numbers this season with both Ladarius Green and Sammie Coates sidelined are mediocre at best. With a healthy Sammie Coates to stretch opposing offenses during the red-hot start to the Steelers' season, Bell averaged 110 rushing yards per game. As soon as Coates became injured, Bell rushed for an average of 55. 75 yards per game during the Steelers losing streak. With Ladarius Green finally healthy, Bell immediately resumed his statistical dominance with a whopping 142.6 rushing yards per game on the ground. It's also important to note that Bell averaged 155 rushing yards in games with a totally healthy Ladarius Green, but last week that number dipped to 93 rushing yards against the Bengals as Green came out at some point during the game with a concussion.
So who do the Steelers have besides Antonio Brown and Le'veon Bell with Ladarius Green and Sammie Coates out? Well they have Darrius Heyward-Bey who has been next to useless for his entire career and is currently dealing with an injury issue of his own. They also have Eli Rogers who has certainly been far more productive than Heyward-Bey (Heyward-Bey has 68 receiving yards on the season) but certainly doesn't strike fear into the hearts of opposing defenses. Rogers actually had his only 100+ receiving yard game against the Ravens earlier this season, but his presence wasn't enough to keep drives going at critical moments.
One may conclude after reading to this point that I believe the Steelers have not a prayer of winning this football game. That is actually not the case. Jimmy Smith's absence factors heavily into the equation as the Ravens have, at numerous times, struggled defensively with him sidelined. The potential damage to the Ravens defense due to Jimmy Smith's absence is, however, mitigated in this case by the absence of speedy deep threats from the Steelers receiving corps. This situation essentially boils down to numbers--the number of capable receiving weapons versus the number of available quality opposing defensive backs. Antonio Brown should still catch for 100+ yards, but if he's the only one making plays, this could be a disappointing night for Steelers fans. The Ravens will likely look to limit Brown the same way they did earlier this season with double and triple coverage. They'll then force Ben to beat them with the likes of a hobbled Heyward-Bey and Eli Rogers. Having Jimmy Smith certainly would be huge, but the Ravens were able to hold the Bengals to a total of 12 offensive points without Jimmy Smith because of a ferocious pass rush and an emphasis on passes batted down at the line of scrimmage.
One of the most misleading statistics I've seen regarding the Ravens recently is how their defense has performed in Jimmy Smith's absence. It's true that he's a huge piece to the Ravens secondary, but other major defensive pieces such as C.J. Mosley and Elvis Dumervil were also absent for much of the time he was sidelined this season. If the Ravens actually have time to adjust and prepare for life without Jimmy Smith, they actually fare quite well against the Steelers. In 2014, the Ravens faced the Steelers in Pittsburgh right after Jimmy Smith went down with a foot injury, and the Ravens got absolutely demolished. In the playoffs of that very same season, however, the Ravens had game-planned and adjusted to playing without Smith, and they throttled the Steelers in Pittsburgh 31-17.
The Ravens offense, on the other hand, has found a rhythm as of late. Baltimore faced three straight teams that each trounced the Steelers this season, and the Ravens offense averaged 29.3 points per game against those three teams. With major injuries to the Steelers defensive line, and a totally healthy Ravens offensive line, Baltimore should be able to control the line of scrimmage and sustain more scoring drives than the Steelers. A fully healthy Steelers team would likely easily be enough to beat a Jimmy Smith-less Ravens team in Pittsburgh, but this is nowhere near a fully healthy Steelers team. Their lack of depth in receiving weapons and quality defensive ends makes them a far more beatable team for a Ravens team that simply has had their number since 2011. It's always possible that Joe Flacco could have one of the worst games of his season, but that doesn't tend to happen when his offensive line is healthy. I'll be interested to see if Alex Lewis makes an appearance at right tackle after two weeks of practice. It's also possible that he'll come in for Marshal Yanda if the all-pro guard needs a breather from the left side.
RAVENS AT STEELERS PREDICTION:
This game will by no means be easy. The Ravens haven't won many games on the road this season, and barely beating the Eagles at home last week certainly didn't instill confidence in the hearts of Baltimoreans, but the Steelers only barely escaped a loss to a middling team last week as well. The Steelers' offensive production, both passing and rushing, simply falls off a cliff without deep threats, and the Steelers defensive line won't be strong enough to suffocate a Ravens rushing attack that has come alive as of late. We should still expect plenty of field goals, and the team with the better kicker absolutely has an advantage. This will be a physical, all-out battle, but the Ravens are healthier and quite familiar with their opponent. RAVENS 26-19
I MUST APOLOGIZE TO READERS FOR NOT POSTING LEAGUE-WIDE PREDICTIONS THIS WEEKEND. THE SCHEDULING OF MOST OF THIS WEEK'S GAMES ON A SATURDAY ALONG WITH FAMILY OBLIGATIONS FOR CHRISTMAS TIME HAS LEFT ME WITHOUT ENOUGH TIME TO GIVE PREDICTIONS THE CAREFUL CONSIDERATION THEY DESERVE. HAPPY HOLIDAYS, EVERYONE!!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!!
No one is saying the Steelers haven't had talent. They absolutely have elite talent at certain positions. Their issue has been keeping that talent healthy and out of trouble long enough to make any sort of post-season run. There has also been a profound shift in exactly how the team has been built. Pittsburgh used to have one of the league's fiercest defenses in the previous decade and even into the first year or two of this decade. As the old defensive guard disappeared one by one, the Steelers found themselves leaning more heavily on a pass-happy offense compared to the hard-nosed ground attack that guided them through the post-season for so many years. They hoped to overcome defensive weaknesses with offensive fireworks, and for much of each regular season, that seemed to work. The problem is that flawed defense and over-reliance on an aerial attack still isn't, even in this so-called "quarterback driven league", a recipe for post-season success. Seldom does a team make a deep playoff run without the ability to play hard-nosed defense and run the football.
I know what many of you are likely thinking at this point. The Steelers have an elite running back who just rushed for over 200 yards in the snow against the Bills, so they obviously have the ability to run the football. They also have a handful of rising young defensive players who have helped the Steelers defense ascend to an 8th place ranking late in the season. That ranking, however, is deceiving as it pertains to Sunday's game against the Ravens because it fails to take into account some major injuries to defensive staff as well as the effect the offense has had on keeping the defense off the field.
When the Ravens faced Pittsburgh in Week 7 the Steelers were actually fairly healthy on the defensive side of the ball. Both Cameron Heyward and Ryan Shazier were back from injuries, and they spent most of the day stuffing the Ravens rushing attack. Heyward has since been put on injured reserve, and the other starting defensive end opposite Heyward, Stephon Tuitt, did not practice all week as he has dealt with a knee injury. Tuitt's backup was also injured last week, and the team may find themselves relying on 3rd and 4th string talent up front against the likes of Marshal Yanda and Ronnie Stanley. The Steelers are on a 5-game winning streak, but that streak also coincides with the return of deep-threat tight end Ladarius Green. Ladarius Green has been listed as doubtful to play against the Ravens, and so has the burner wide receiver Sammie Coates. That leaves the Steelers with identical receiving personnel to what they possessed during their mid-season 0-4 stretch.
Sammie Coates was a productive deep threat through the Steelers 4-1 beginning to the season. He averaged 84.2 receiving yards per game during that stretch, but has been slowed and mostly sidelined since Week 6. For the next four games, the Steelers played without a healthy Ladarius Green or Sammie Coates to stretch the field and take pressure off of Antonio Brown, and Pittsburgh did nothing but lose. The Steelers got their first win of their current winning streak against a hopeless Browns team, but even that wasn't particularly convincing from an offensive standpoint as Pittsburgh only led the Browns 17-9 in the 4th quarter before a late pick-6 helped put the game out of reach for the Tomlin and his guys. Ladarius Green was not surprisingly not quite yet healthy and, thus, didn't see a single target in the win over the Browns despite being listed on the active roster that day.
It wasn't until the following week against the Colts that Green finally got healthy and made two critical deep catches to help the Steelers pull away from Indianapolis on Thanksgiving night. The speedy tight end followed that performance up with a breakout game against the Giants with 110 receiving yards and a touchdown against the then red-hot Giants. Green only caught two passes against the Bills the following week, but that game was played in driving snow and Big Ben was horrendously off the mark that day with 3 interceptions. Last week against the Bengals, Ladarius Green caught 5 passes for 72 yards, and was incredibly critical in a game in which the Steelers kicked 6 field goals and won by 4 points.
By now you should have realized a trend. When the Steelers have a legitimate deep threat to compliment Antonio Brown, they win football games. Early in the season, that deep threat was Sammie Coates, and then he became injured and they couldn't stop losing. Later in the season Ladarius Green finally became healthy enough to play and the Steelers began to win again. Now neither man is healthy just in time for one of the most important divisional matchups of the season. The Steelers ultimately did find a way to beat the Bengals late last week even after Green went down with a concussion, but Sammie Coates' hamstring injury in practice only a couple of days ago means that the Steelers will once against be without both players.
You might be thinking at this point that the Steelers will still beat the Ravens because Le'veon Bell is such a fantastic running back, right? He is quite good, but he hasn't exactly found wild success against the Ravens, and he certainly didn't do well against them earlier this season. Le'veon Bell is a strong, shifty, speedy running back, but much of his success comes from the fact that teams typically have to account for so many other weapons in the Steelers' offensive arsenal. The Steelers offense, for example, isn't typically able to pound the run when teams stack the box. Bell's numbers this season with both Ladarius Green and Sammie Coates sidelined are mediocre at best. With a healthy Sammie Coates to stretch opposing offenses during the red-hot start to the Steelers' season, Bell averaged 110 rushing yards per game. As soon as Coates became injured, Bell rushed for an average of 55. 75 yards per game during the Steelers losing streak. With Ladarius Green finally healthy, Bell immediately resumed his statistical dominance with a whopping 142.6 rushing yards per game on the ground. It's also important to note that Bell averaged 155 rushing yards in games with a totally healthy Ladarius Green, but last week that number dipped to 93 rushing yards against the Bengals as Green came out at some point during the game with a concussion.
So who do the Steelers have besides Antonio Brown and Le'veon Bell with Ladarius Green and Sammie Coates out? Well they have Darrius Heyward-Bey who has been next to useless for his entire career and is currently dealing with an injury issue of his own. They also have Eli Rogers who has certainly been far more productive than Heyward-Bey (Heyward-Bey has 68 receiving yards on the season) but certainly doesn't strike fear into the hearts of opposing defenses. Rogers actually had his only 100+ receiving yard game against the Ravens earlier this season, but his presence wasn't enough to keep drives going at critical moments.
One may conclude after reading to this point that I believe the Steelers have not a prayer of winning this football game. That is actually not the case. Jimmy Smith's absence factors heavily into the equation as the Ravens have, at numerous times, struggled defensively with him sidelined. The potential damage to the Ravens defense due to Jimmy Smith's absence is, however, mitigated in this case by the absence of speedy deep threats from the Steelers receiving corps. This situation essentially boils down to numbers--the number of capable receiving weapons versus the number of available quality opposing defensive backs. Antonio Brown should still catch for 100+ yards, but if he's the only one making plays, this could be a disappointing night for Steelers fans. The Ravens will likely look to limit Brown the same way they did earlier this season with double and triple coverage. They'll then force Ben to beat them with the likes of a hobbled Heyward-Bey and Eli Rogers. Having Jimmy Smith certainly would be huge, but the Ravens were able to hold the Bengals to a total of 12 offensive points without Jimmy Smith because of a ferocious pass rush and an emphasis on passes batted down at the line of scrimmage.
One of the most misleading statistics I've seen regarding the Ravens recently is how their defense has performed in Jimmy Smith's absence. It's true that he's a huge piece to the Ravens secondary, but other major defensive pieces such as C.J. Mosley and Elvis Dumervil were also absent for much of the time he was sidelined this season. If the Ravens actually have time to adjust and prepare for life without Jimmy Smith, they actually fare quite well against the Steelers. In 2014, the Ravens faced the Steelers in Pittsburgh right after Jimmy Smith went down with a foot injury, and the Ravens got absolutely demolished. In the playoffs of that very same season, however, the Ravens had game-planned and adjusted to playing without Smith, and they throttled the Steelers in Pittsburgh 31-17.
The Ravens offense, on the other hand, has found a rhythm as of late. Baltimore faced three straight teams that each trounced the Steelers this season, and the Ravens offense averaged 29.3 points per game against those three teams. With major injuries to the Steelers defensive line, and a totally healthy Ravens offensive line, Baltimore should be able to control the line of scrimmage and sustain more scoring drives than the Steelers. A fully healthy Steelers team would likely easily be enough to beat a Jimmy Smith-less Ravens team in Pittsburgh, but this is nowhere near a fully healthy Steelers team. Their lack of depth in receiving weapons and quality defensive ends makes them a far more beatable team for a Ravens team that simply has had their number since 2011. It's always possible that Joe Flacco could have one of the worst games of his season, but that doesn't tend to happen when his offensive line is healthy. I'll be interested to see if Alex Lewis makes an appearance at right tackle after two weeks of practice. It's also possible that he'll come in for Marshal Yanda if the all-pro guard needs a breather from the left side.
RAVENS AT STEELERS PREDICTION:
This game will by no means be easy. The Ravens haven't won many games on the road this season, and barely beating the Eagles at home last week certainly didn't instill confidence in the hearts of Baltimoreans, but the Steelers only barely escaped a loss to a middling team last week as well. The Steelers' offensive production, both passing and rushing, simply falls off a cliff without deep threats, and the Steelers defensive line won't be strong enough to suffocate a Ravens rushing attack that has come alive as of late. We should still expect plenty of field goals, and the team with the better kicker absolutely has an advantage. This will be a physical, all-out battle, but the Ravens are healthier and quite familiar with their opponent. RAVENS 26-19
I MUST APOLOGIZE TO READERS FOR NOT POSTING LEAGUE-WIDE PREDICTIONS THIS WEEKEND. THE SCHEDULING OF MOST OF THIS WEEK'S GAMES ON A SATURDAY ALONG WITH FAMILY OBLIGATIONS FOR CHRISTMAS TIME HAS LEFT ME WITHOUT ENOUGH TIME TO GIVE PREDICTIONS THE CAREFUL CONSIDERATION THEY DESERVE. HAPPY HOLIDAYS, EVERYONE!!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!!
Saturday, December 17, 2016
RAVENS REBOUND AND WEEK 15 NFL PICKS
Just when the Ravens virtually as healthy as possible, Jimmy Smith sprains his ankle in the first quarter of a road game against the Patriots. My entire prediction was predicated on the idea that the Patriots simply wouldn't have enough weapons to match up with a totally healthy Ravens defense, and that may have ultimately ended up being the case were it not for Smith's early exit. The Patriots' game-sealing touchdown, in fact, may very well not have happened if Smith was on the field at that point in the game as Lardarius Webb would have still been at free safety, Weddle at strong safety, Jimmy and Tavon on the outside, with Wright or Powers at nickel corner. With Smith out, the Ravens had Shareece Wright and Tavon Young at corner, Webb at nickel, Weddle at free safety, and Matt Elam at strong. Elam is nearly useless at this point in his disappointing career, why the Ravens kept him and not Terrence Brooks is a mystery I may never fully solve. Elam simply isn't athletically equipped to drop back in pass coverage consistently. Chris Hogan isn't a speed demon, but he proved too much for Elam who stumbled trying to keep up with a Patriots receiver who caught a 79 yard touchdown pass that essentially sealed the Ravens' fate.
Injuries are unquestionably part of the game, and the Patriots were playing with more key injured players than the Ravens by far. The Patriots, somehow, found themselves dominating the Ravens through much of the game. It didn't matter that Gronk was out, and it didn't matter that the Patriots didn't have a single wide receiver with over 600 receiver yards. Brady and Belichick simply zeroed in on weaknesses in an extremely strong Ravens defense, such as the ability to stop a hurry up offense as seen against the Giants earlier this season, and they used the players available to them. The fact that so much of the Ravens' success appears to depend on the health of a single player would suggest two things. Thing #1: The Ravens have depressingly poor depth at corner. Thing #2: The Ravens coaching doesn't enter games against top teams with superb game plans.
The Ravens coaching staff DID eventually adjust to Jimmy Smith's absence. After going down 23-3 early in the third quarter, the Ravens began forcing the Patriots to punt repeatedly, and with some magic from a fairly consistently explosive special teams unit, Baltimore was able to close the gap to 23-17 in rapid fashion. The Ravens were even able to move the football on a couple of drives that took advantage of the talents of Kenneth Dixon and Terrence West, but those drives ultimately took far too much time off the clock and each only resulted in a field goal. That brings us to an irritating pattern the Ravens have displayed against top teams: they find success with a balanced offensive attack either too early or too late, but never consistently. They have put on offensive fireworks displays only a couple of times this season, and the most recent came against a red-hot Miami team that has won one more game than the Ravens at this point.
The Patriots, however, are not the Dolphins. The Patriots actually now possess a higher ranked scoring defense than Baltimore, and both defenses were tied in that statistical category leading up to last Monday night's game. The thing that threw me off was the fact that the Patriots had played close games against some extremely bad teams in the three weeks leading up to the Ravens game. That only goes to show that each game is its own entity, and that no team is more clever than the Patriots when it comes to finding creative ways to win that they haven't yet shown on film.
The Patriots hadn't looked as dominant in the last month, but they may suddenly be terrifying to opposing teams after picking up deep threat receiver Michael Floyd off the waiver wire following his arrest for DUI while signed with the Arizona Cardinals. Floyd hadn't had a career year this season, but that had much to do with the decline of Carson Palmer. Brady and Belichick tend to elevate receiving talent, and a legitimate deep threat could go a long way to make up for the loss of Rob Gronkowski. I'd bet good money that the Patriots will make it to the AFC Championship at the least this season after making that bold but shrewd acquisition.
New England is, at least for the rest of the regular season, no longer any concern to the Ravens. Baltimore has to win its remaining games to guarantee a playoff spot, and they need to hope the Bengals find a way to win at home this weekend. If, for instance, the Ravens beat the Eagles and the Bengals beat the Steelers, the Ravens would need only to beat the Steelers the following week to clinch the AFC North division. That would afford them the ability to sit their starters in Week 16 against the Bengals and go into a home playoff game with rested, healthy starters. Beating the Steelers on the road without Jimmy Smith, however, is a tall task. The Ravens held off the Steelers in Baltimore earlier this season when Ben Roethlisberger was coming off of an injury and had a limited number of targets, but now Ladarius Green has been added to his arsenal, and that's bad news with Jimmy Smith out. The Ravens could still beat the Eagles and Bengals and get into the playoffs, but they'd need help from other teams. They'd need the Dolphins to go 1-2 through the end of the season, and they'd need the Broncos to essentially lose out (which they actually should be predicted to do). The problem remains that if the Ravens aren't good enough to beat a horrible Eagles team and two other teams they already beat this season just because Jimmy Smith is out, they simply don't belong in the playoffs anyway.
Speaking of Jimmy Smith, what's the deal with his injury status? It appeared pretty clear that Jimmy sprained his ankle on Monday, but it seems uncharacteristic for the Ravens not to go into more detail about a potential timetable for his return. John Harbaugh wasn't just tightlipped about the injury; he became downright defensive when questions inevitably arose following the game. I have hope that the sprain isn't so severe that Jimmy is out for the rest of the entire football year. If this means that he'll be back for the first game of the playoffs (assuming that they make it there) then maybe his return will provide a timely major post-season boost. It's possible, however, that such an ankle sprain could take him out for 4-6 weeks, and that would likely render the Ravens' top corner finished for the 2016 season. We likely won't know until reports from practice next week, but I must say that I'm not terrifically optimistic. If Harbaugh had reasonably good news, it seems as though he'd speak to the media about it.
Baltimore will almost certainly NOT require Jimmy Smith's services to beat an Eagles team that is 2-8 in their last 10 games. Not only are the Eagles decimated by injuries, but they're starting a rookie quarterback not experienced enough to carry a team during such trying times. Darren Sproles' absence takes away an experienced back with 766 all-purpose yards and three touchdowns. More importantly, however, the Eagles are on their 5th (yes, you read that correctly) right offensive tackle this week. Pressure on Carson Wentz could be absolutely devastating, especially in a harsh, loud road environment where visiting quarterbacks struggle to communicate with their teammates at the line of scrimmage. Of course anything can happen, but we should fully expect the Ravens to take out their frustrations from last Monday on a battered, struggling Eagles team.
The Eagles defense isn't nearly as dominant as it appeared earlier this season, but it's still not a terrible unit from a statistical standpoint. Philly boasts the 14th ranked run defense and the 12th ranked pass defense in the league. They also currently rank 11th overall in total defense in the category of yards allowed per game. The Eagles even come in a respectable 12th place in the league in points allowed per game. When we specifically look at the Eagles' record on the road, however, things become far more grim for Philadelphia. Much of the Eagles' defensive statistical success comes from their defensive dominance at home. Philly has, in fact, allowed a mere 15.33 points per game at home. On the road, that number increases to 25.7 points allowed per game. To add insult to literal injury, as the Eagles lose more and more starting offensive players, their ability to keep their defense off the field diminishes and leaves a solid group exhausted.
The Eagles don't have enough healthy impact players to outscore the Ravens, and they've only won a single road game this season...against the Bears. Without the ability to protect a rookie quarterback, expect Dumervil and Suggs to have a monster game. Alex Lewis' return to health means the Ravens will finally have all of their starting offensive linemen healthy, and that means better protection for Joe and more open running lanes for Dixon and West. There's currently an 80% chance of rain at kickoff, but temperatures will rise to an unseasonable 58 degrees. This could get extremely sloppy now that the Ravens have switched to real grass, but the conditions will favor the team better suited to run the football and stop the run--that team is Baltimore. The Ravens players are pissed, they're pumped, and they're ready to rebound.
THE PICKS
DOLPHINS AT JETS- This game will be interesting because of Ryan Tannehill's absence. The Dophins aren't a great road team, but the Jets will likely be missing 8 starters. Injuries to the Jets' offensive line will likely mean the Dolphins defensive line will have a big day putting pressure on Bryce Petty or whoever takes most of the snaps for the Jets. The Jets beat the 49ers last week, but they're simply to banged up to beat the Dolphins on Sunday. DOLPHINS 27-14
PACKERS AT BEARS- The Packers proved against the Seahawks that they truly have improved. This should be a sound beating against a Bears team that gave up hope months ago. PACKERS 33-17
JAGUARS AT TEXANS- The Jaguars haven't won a game in actual months. TEXANS 24-17
EAGLES AT RAVENS- The Eagles can't win road games, especially not in their current injured state. The Ravens have exactly one starter missing at this point and they've had good offensive production at home as of late. RAVENS 30-16
TITANS AT CHIEFS- The Titans are improving and they're a decent team, but they're simply not nearly good enough to beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs are actually my pick at this point to meet the Patriots in Foxboro for the AFC Championship. They do the things necessary to win in December and January and those things are run the football and play serious defense. The Titans are only 3-3 on the road, and they haven't strung together wins at any point this season. CHIEFS 26-17
LIONS AT GIANTS- Theo Riddick won't suit up for the Lions, and that means they're down to almost zero talent at the running back position. Both of these teams have won a lot of games as of late, but the Giants have beaten higher quality teams. The Lions barely edging the Bears last week shouldn't inspire much confidence in their road trip to face a team that just finished sweeping the Cowboys. GIANTS 24-21
COLTS AT VIKINGS- Texans fans should be happy with the outcome of this game. The Colts will be like fish out of water in a harsh winter environment, and the return of Adrian Peterson should help take pressure off of Sam Bradford and give at least a bit of a spark to the Vikings offense. The Vikings defense won't let Andrew Luck move the ball consistently. VIKINGS 23-17
STEELERS AT BENGALS- The Bengals are 4-2 at home this year, but that likely won't be enough to stop the Steelers. Pittsburgh's defense has looked significantly improved recently, and the rise of Ladarius Green gives the Steelers a much needed second deep threat to take pressure off of Antonio Brown. A.J. Green didn't ever seem likely to return, but now there's no hope of that happening. Without him healthy, the Bengals won't have enough to outscore the Steelers this week. STEELERS 28-20
SAINTS AT CARDINALS- This game is totally inconsequential. The Saints are pretty bad on the road and the Cardinals are 4-2-1 at home. CARDINALS 31-28
49ERS AT FALCONS- The Falcons' season has come off the rails, but they'll be able to take out their frustrations against the 49ers. Both teams are missing deep threat receivers in Torrey Smith and Julio Jones, but only one of those players is a significant loss. Atlanta should still be able to pull this one out though. FALCONS 35-17
PATRIOTS AT BRONCOS- The Broncos defense simply isn't enough to beat a superior Patriots team. The Patriots defense is probably just as good at this point, and their offense is vastly superior to that of Denver. PATRIOTS 27-20
RAIDERS AT CHARGERS- The Chargers have that the misfortune of having easily the toughest schedule in the NFL this season. This won't be much of a road game for the Raiders as their fans won't have to travel that far to drown out hopeless Chargers fans in San Diego. RAIDERS 31-24
BUCCANEERS AT COWBOYS- The Bucs have been entertaining to watch this season, but they won't be able to beat the Cowboys in Arlington. Don't let last week's loss to the Giants fool you--this is still a dominant Cowboys team. The Bucs' road record is just as good as the Cowboys home record, so expect this to be one of the best games of the week. COWBOYS 28-23
PANTHERS AT REDSKINS- The Panthers' road record is simply too bad to suggest they can beat the Redskins in D.C. This is about as far as a team has fallen the year after it went to the Super Bowl in recent years. The Redskins should be able to pick on atrocious Panthers corners. REDSKINS 33-21
THE RAVENS ARE STILL IN CONTROL OF THEIR OWN DESTINY AND, DESPITE JIMMY SMITH'S ABSENCE, THEY'RE STILL A RATHER HEALTHY TEAM. PRIORITY #1 IS BEATING THE EAGLES, AND THEN WE'LL SEE WHERE THE REST OF THE LEAGUE STANDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. DON'T GIVE UP HOPE NOW, BALTIMORE, IT'S JUST GETTING INTERESTING!!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Injuries are unquestionably part of the game, and the Patriots were playing with more key injured players than the Ravens by far. The Patriots, somehow, found themselves dominating the Ravens through much of the game. It didn't matter that Gronk was out, and it didn't matter that the Patriots didn't have a single wide receiver with over 600 receiver yards. Brady and Belichick simply zeroed in on weaknesses in an extremely strong Ravens defense, such as the ability to stop a hurry up offense as seen against the Giants earlier this season, and they used the players available to them. The fact that so much of the Ravens' success appears to depend on the health of a single player would suggest two things. Thing #1: The Ravens have depressingly poor depth at corner. Thing #2: The Ravens coaching doesn't enter games against top teams with superb game plans.
The Ravens coaching staff DID eventually adjust to Jimmy Smith's absence. After going down 23-3 early in the third quarter, the Ravens began forcing the Patriots to punt repeatedly, and with some magic from a fairly consistently explosive special teams unit, Baltimore was able to close the gap to 23-17 in rapid fashion. The Ravens were even able to move the football on a couple of drives that took advantage of the talents of Kenneth Dixon and Terrence West, but those drives ultimately took far too much time off the clock and each only resulted in a field goal. That brings us to an irritating pattern the Ravens have displayed against top teams: they find success with a balanced offensive attack either too early or too late, but never consistently. They have put on offensive fireworks displays only a couple of times this season, and the most recent came against a red-hot Miami team that has won one more game than the Ravens at this point.
The Patriots, however, are not the Dolphins. The Patriots actually now possess a higher ranked scoring defense than Baltimore, and both defenses were tied in that statistical category leading up to last Monday night's game. The thing that threw me off was the fact that the Patriots had played close games against some extremely bad teams in the three weeks leading up to the Ravens game. That only goes to show that each game is its own entity, and that no team is more clever than the Patriots when it comes to finding creative ways to win that they haven't yet shown on film.
The Patriots hadn't looked as dominant in the last month, but they may suddenly be terrifying to opposing teams after picking up deep threat receiver Michael Floyd off the waiver wire following his arrest for DUI while signed with the Arizona Cardinals. Floyd hadn't had a career year this season, but that had much to do with the decline of Carson Palmer. Brady and Belichick tend to elevate receiving talent, and a legitimate deep threat could go a long way to make up for the loss of Rob Gronkowski. I'd bet good money that the Patriots will make it to the AFC Championship at the least this season after making that bold but shrewd acquisition.
New England is, at least for the rest of the regular season, no longer any concern to the Ravens. Baltimore has to win its remaining games to guarantee a playoff spot, and they need to hope the Bengals find a way to win at home this weekend. If, for instance, the Ravens beat the Eagles and the Bengals beat the Steelers, the Ravens would need only to beat the Steelers the following week to clinch the AFC North division. That would afford them the ability to sit their starters in Week 16 against the Bengals and go into a home playoff game with rested, healthy starters. Beating the Steelers on the road without Jimmy Smith, however, is a tall task. The Ravens held off the Steelers in Baltimore earlier this season when Ben Roethlisberger was coming off of an injury and had a limited number of targets, but now Ladarius Green has been added to his arsenal, and that's bad news with Jimmy Smith out. The Ravens could still beat the Eagles and Bengals and get into the playoffs, but they'd need help from other teams. They'd need the Dolphins to go 1-2 through the end of the season, and they'd need the Broncos to essentially lose out (which they actually should be predicted to do). The problem remains that if the Ravens aren't good enough to beat a horrible Eagles team and two other teams they already beat this season just because Jimmy Smith is out, they simply don't belong in the playoffs anyway.
Speaking of Jimmy Smith, what's the deal with his injury status? It appeared pretty clear that Jimmy sprained his ankle on Monday, but it seems uncharacteristic for the Ravens not to go into more detail about a potential timetable for his return. John Harbaugh wasn't just tightlipped about the injury; he became downright defensive when questions inevitably arose following the game. I have hope that the sprain isn't so severe that Jimmy is out for the rest of the entire football year. If this means that he'll be back for the first game of the playoffs (assuming that they make it there) then maybe his return will provide a timely major post-season boost. It's possible, however, that such an ankle sprain could take him out for 4-6 weeks, and that would likely render the Ravens' top corner finished for the 2016 season. We likely won't know until reports from practice next week, but I must say that I'm not terrifically optimistic. If Harbaugh had reasonably good news, it seems as though he'd speak to the media about it.
Baltimore will almost certainly NOT require Jimmy Smith's services to beat an Eagles team that is 2-8 in their last 10 games. Not only are the Eagles decimated by injuries, but they're starting a rookie quarterback not experienced enough to carry a team during such trying times. Darren Sproles' absence takes away an experienced back with 766 all-purpose yards and three touchdowns. More importantly, however, the Eagles are on their 5th (yes, you read that correctly) right offensive tackle this week. Pressure on Carson Wentz could be absolutely devastating, especially in a harsh, loud road environment where visiting quarterbacks struggle to communicate with their teammates at the line of scrimmage. Of course anything can happen, but we should fully expect the Ravens to take out their frustrations from last Monday on a battered, struggling Eagles team.
The Eagles defense isn't nearly as dominant as it appeared earlier this season, but it's still not a terrible unit from a statistical standpoint. Philly boasts the 14th ranked run defense and the 12th ranked pass defense in the league. They also currently rank 11th overall in total defense in the category of yards allowed per game. The Eagles even come in a respectable 12th place in the league in points allowed per game. When we specifically look at the Eagles' record on the road, however, things become far more grim for Philadelphia. Much of the Eagles' defensive statistical success comes from their defensive dominance at home. Philly has, in fact, allowed a mere 15.33 points per game at home. On the road, that number increases to 25.7 points allowed per game. To add insult to literal injury, as the Eagles lose more and more starting offensive players, their ability to keep their defense off the field diminishes and leaves a solid group exhausted.
The Eagles don't have enough healthy impact players to outscore the Ravens, and they've only won a single road game this season...against the Bears. Without the ability to protect a rookie quarterback, expect Dumervil and Suggs to have a monster game. Alex Lewis' return to health means the Ravens will finally have all of their starting offensive linemen healthy, and that means better protection for Joe and more open running lanes for Dixon and West. There's currently an 80% chance of rain at kickoff, but temperatures will rise to an unseasonable 58 degrees. This could get extremely sloppy now that the Ravens have switched to real grass, but the conditions will favor the team better suited to run the football and stop the run--that team is Baltimore. The Ravens players are pissed, they're pumped, and they're ready to rebound.
THE PICKS
DOLPHINS AT JETS- This game will be interesting because of Ryan Tannehill's absence. The Dophins aren't a great road team, but the Jets will likely be missing 8 starters. Injuries to the Jets' offensive line will likely mean the Dolphins defensive line will have a big day putting pressure on Bryce Petty or whoever takes most of the snaps for the Jets. The Jets beat the 49ers last week, but they're simply to banged up to beat the Dolphins on Sunday. DOLPHINS 27-14
PACKERS AT BEARS- The Packers proved against the Seahawks that they truly have improved. This should be a sound beating against a Bears team that gave up hope months ago. PACKERS 33-17
JAGUARS AT TEXANS- The Jaguars haven't won a game in actual months. TEXANS 24-17
EAGLES AT RAVENS- The Eagles can't win road games, especially not in their current injured state. The Ravens have exactly one starter missing at this point and they've had good offensive production at home as of late. RAVENS 30-16
TITANS AT CHIEFS- The Titans are improving and they're a decent team, but they're simply not nearly good enough to beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs are actually my pick at this point to meet the Patriots in Foxboro for the AFC Championship. They do the things necessary to win in December and January and those things are run the football and play serious defense. The Titans are only 3-3 on the road, and they haven't strung together wins at any point this season. CHIEFS 26-17
LIONS AT GIANTS- Theo Riddick won't suit up for the Lions, and that means they're down to almost zero talent at the running back position. Both of these teams have won a lot of games as of late, but the Giants have beaten higher quality teams. The Lions barely edging the Bears last week shouldn't inspire much confidence in their road trip to face a team that just finished sweeping the Cowboys. GIANTS 24-21
COLTS AT VIKINGS- Texans fans should be happy with the outcome of this game. The Colts will be like fish out of water in a harsh winter environment, and the return of Adrian Peterson should help take pressure off of Sam Bradford and give at least a bit of a spark to the Vikings offense. The Vikings defense won't let Andrew Luck move the ball consistently. VIKINGS 23-17
STEELERS AT BENGALS- The Bengals are 4-2 at home this year, but that likely won't be enough to stop the Steelers. Pittsburgh's defense has looked significantly improved recently, and the rise of Ladarius Green gives the Steelers a much needed second deep threat to take pressure off of Antonio Brown. A.J. Green didn't ever seem likely to return, but now there's no hope of that happening. Without him healthy, the Bengals won't have enough to outscore the Steelers this week. STEELERS 28-20
SAINTS AT CARDINALS- This game is totally inconsequential. The Saints are pretty bad on the road and the Cardinals are 4-2-1 at home. CARDINALS 31-28
49ERS AT FALCONS- The Falcons' season has come off the rails, but they'll be able to take out their frustrations against the 49ers. Both teams are missing deep threat receivers in Torrey Smith and Julio Jones, but only one of those players is a significant loss. Atlanta should still be able to pull this one out though. FALCONS 35-17
PATRIOTS AT BRONCOS- The Broncos defense simply isn't enough to beat a superior Patriots team. The Patriots defense is probably just as good at this point, and their offense is vastly superior to that of Denver. PATRIOTS 27-20
RAIDERS AT CHARGERS- The Chargers have that the misfortune of having easily the toughest schedule in the NFL this season. This won't be much of a road game for the Raiders as their fans won't have to travel that far to drown out hopeless Chargers fans in San Diego. RAIDERS 31-24
BUCCANEERS AT COWBOYS- The Bucs have been entertaining to watch this season, but they won't be able to beat the Cowboys in Arlington. Don't let last week's loss to the Giants fool you--this is still a dominant Cowboys team. The Bucs' road record is just as good as the Cowboys home record, so expect this to be one of the best games of the week. COWBOYS 28-23
PANTHERS AT REDSKINS- The Panthers' road record is simply too bad to suggest they can beat the Redskins in D.C. This is about as far as a team has fallen the year after it went to the Super Bowl in recent years. The Redskins should be able to pick on atrocious Panthers corners. REDSKINS 33-21
THE RAVENS ARE STILL IN CONTROL OF THEIR OWN DESTINY AND, DESPITE JIMMY SMITH'S ABSENCE, THEY'RE STILL A RATHER HEALTHY TEAM. PRIORITY #1 IS BEATING THE EAGLES, AND THEN WE'LL SEE WHERE THE REST OF THE LEAGUE STANDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. DON'T GIVE UP HOPE NOW, BALTIMORE, IT'S JUST GETTING INTERESTING!!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, December 11, 2016
RAVENS-PATRIOTS BREAKDOWN AND WEEK 14 NFL PICKS
The biggest, most common error in predicting NFL games is to base a prediction on the comparison of two opposing teams' records. The second biggest, most common error is to base a prediction on a team's reputation. I was recently asked by a man from another country why NFL teams don't have dynasties the way professional soccer and basketball teams often tend to do. I cited the comparatively prohibitive salary cap as a reason NFL teams can't hold on to a particular roster for more than a couple of years, but the greatest reason is the violent nature of the sport.
A team is only as good as the players it puts on the field on any given week, and injuries are dramatically more common and severe in the NFL than they are in professional soccer and basketball. Sure, it's possible to tear one's ACL or collide with another player in low-impact activities, but the injury report of an NFL roster is a constantly evolving entity. The team that comes out on top in pro football isn't necessarily the one that looked most dominant over the course of the season, but instead it's often the team that entered the post-season with the healthiest, strongest roster.
Sometimes a team can go much of the regular season without major integral pieces to their lineup, and then an impact player returns healthy and raring to go just in time for week 1 of the playoffs. That certainly happened for the Giants in 2011/2012 season as Osi Umeniyora returned to give the Giants a major pass rushing boost just in time to help them upset the reigning champion Packers and ultimately overcome the Patriots in one of the most gripping Super Bowls ever played.
The Ravens experienced a similar boost the following season as Bryant McKinney returned as left tackle which shifted Michael Oher back over to his natural right tackle position. The Ravens, however, also had a host of other major changes that led to their upswing in performance during the post-season. Many forget that Anquan Boldin actually had a torn meniscus and had to sit out the final two games of the season. Boldin fought mightily through the pain of his torn meniscus all throughout the regular season, but getting the knee scoped and having two weeks to heal led to an incredible rejuvenation of his ability to dominate as soon as the first game of the playoffs arrived. Boldin embarrassed the Colts with a 155 receiving yard performance, and he ultimately led all receivers through the playoffs in yardage and touchdowns.
The post-season has not yet arrived, and the Ravens have not yet solidified their status as AFC North champions. They are, however, getting healthy in time for what many assumed would be the toughest stretch on their schedule. There's no question that playing the Patriots in Foxboro typically represents one of the biggest challenges in professional sports. The Pats have maintained an incredibly high standard of performance for an unfathomable amount of time given the amount of roster turnover from year to year in the NFL. The Patriots also bolster one of the best, if not THE best, home-field advantages in the league. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have also often found a way to win football games in the absence of key personnel. They won without Tom Brady for three out of their first four games, and won last week despite the absence of Rob Gronkowski. It's important, however, that we consider exactly who the Patriots beat without Gronk, and how they've fared since the All-Pro tight tend first injured himself against the Seahawks.
The Patriots haven't lost a game since facing Seattle four weeks ago, but their schedule since then hasn't exactly been daunting. After the Seahawks, the Patriots faced the 49ers, the Jets, and the Rams. Those teams have COMBINED for a total of 8 wins, while the Ravens destroyed a red-hot Dolphins team last week that has 7 wins. Beating up on the Dolphins doesn't mean the Ravens are invincible from here on out, but it illustrates perfectly the point that a team's record means far less than the current status and health of their players as well as their most recent performances. The Dolphins, for example, had just managed to barely beat two of the same bottom-feeding opponents that the Patriots faced in recent weeks in the 49ers and Rams. When we took the injury issues of Miami into consideration and factored in the return of Jimmy Smith and Elvis Dumervil as well as blocking tight end Nick Boyle, it wasn't difficult to predict a solid win for Baltimore.
The Patriots certainly handled the 49ers and Rams far better than the Dolphins did, but they struggled to pull away from a reeling Jets team. Part of that can be attributed to divisional familiarity, but another part was undoubtedly Gronk's limitation and ultimately his exit due to his back injury that turned out to require surgery for a bulging disk. Many assumed that former Pro Bowl tight end Martellus Bennett would help mitigate the damage of Gronk's exit, but Bennett was ultimately forced to leave the game as well. Tom Brady, instead, utilized a solid 91 yard rushing performance from the combo of LaGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis along with decent receiving production from Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, and rookie Malcolm Mitchell. All 5 of those players will take the field Monday night, but not one of them represents an elite receiving or rushing threat. Sure, Blount has over 900 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns, but much of that has been due to teams committing so much of their personnel to stopping the likes of Gronk.
The Ravens have faced Ezekiel Elliott, Le'Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy, Jay Ajayi, Sammy Watkins, Amari Cooper, Dez Bryant, DeSean Jackson, O'Dell Beckham Jr., Antonio Brown, Allen Hurns, and Jarvis Landry. Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell, LaGarrette Blount, Dion Lewis, and a hobbled Martellus Bennett don't exactly leave the Ravens shaking in their cleats. The Dolphins, for example, ended up having all three of their potent wide receiver trio last week along with an incredibly talented Jay Ajayi. Ajayi showed burst and the ability to break tackles, but he was still held to 61 yards. The Dolphins secondary that ranked 9th in the league had absolutely no answer for the Ravens receiving corps. Joe Flacco spread the ball out to a total of 10 receivers, and four of those receivers had in excess of 50 yards with Dennis Pitta leading the way at 90. It didn't matter that the likes of Cameron Wake and Ndamakong Suh attempted to get to Flacco's blind side all day; the Ravens kept Joe clean and Marty Mornhinweg prepared an ingenious play script designed to attack the middle of the field with tight ends while stretching the secondary with speedy wide receivers. The Dolphins couldn't key in on any particular player because Joe spread the ball out so incredibly evenly. It was a pick-your-poison situation.
The Patriots in Foxboro are unquestionably a more difficult opponent than the Dolphins playing in Baltimore. Bill Belichick is the craftiest coach of a generation, possibly of all time. The Patriots are 10-2 and leading their division. They rank in the top ten in both offense and defense, and they're tied in points allowed on the season with none other than the Baltimore Ravens. That hasn't stopped, however, the likes of the 49ers and Jets from keeping scores close with the Patriots all the way up until 4th quarters of their respective games. The Patriots, for example, only led the 49ers 13-10 entering the 4th quarter, and they entered the 4th quarter 13-10 against the Jets too. Credit must be given to the Patriots for winning, but the loss of Gronkowski has certainly taken away the edge and killer instinct the Patriots had earlier this season when they beat up on the Steelers, Texans, and Bills.
From a statistical standpoint, the Patriots averaged 34 points per game with Brady and Gronkowski both playing and healthy. Once Gronk took the hellacious shot that ultimately led to the premature end to his season, the Patriots' scoring average dropped to 25.5 points per game. The Ravens defense, meanwhile, has absolutely suffocated opponents recently. Without Jimmy Smith and Elvis Dumervil, the Ravens struggled to stop Dez Bryant and get pressure on Dak Prescott. Dumervil's return the following week led to a ferocious upswing in pressure on Andy Dalton, and Jimmy Smith's return the week after that led to a nearly flawless defensive shutdown of a Dolphins offense with an impressive array of weapons. Now the Ravens face a Patriots team with fewer impact offensive players that has struggled to pull away from some absolutely horrible teams as of late.
Conventional wisdom would suggest that it's unwise to bet against the Patriots at home, but the Ravens must've missed the memo on that one. Joe Flacco is 2-2 against the Patriots in the playoffs, and even in losses, Flacco has played as well or better than Brady. Let's for a second, examine the last loss to the Patriots, shall we? The Ravens last lost to the Pats in the playoffs of the 2014 season, and mismatch issues were glaring. The Ravens twice held 14 point leads, but their stable of cornerbacks simply couldn't stop the likes of Edelman, Amendola, and Brandon LaFell. Gronkowkski was healthy and dominant with 108 receiving yards, and the combination of Brandon Browner and Darrelle Revis helped to halt key Ravens drives. Baltimore ultimately fell short as Flacco threw a game-sealing pick intended for Torrey Smith who disappointingly and lazily didn't make a serious attempt to either catch the ball of bat down the pass. Jimmy Smith wasn't active as his season had ended months earlier with a foot injury, and the Ravens were left starting an ailing Lardarius Webb and undrafted rookie Rashaan Melvin at corner.
Now compare THAT matchup to THIS matchup. No Gronkowski, no LaFell, and no Darrelle Revis. Jamie Collins is gone, and unlike that last matchup two seasons ago, the Ravens defense is absolutely stacked and healthy. The Ravens added the top rated safety in the league, Eric Weddle, they got Jimmy Smith back healthy, and drafted starting corner Tavon Young who has played energetic, inspired football for months now. Even Lardarius Webb has elevated his game as of late in his conversion to safety as he snagged what could easily be considered the interception of the year last week at the edge of the endzone. Jimmy Smith has sometimes struggled against Edelman, but Tavon Young should stay with him quite well as he has been a fantastic match for smaller, shifty receivers. Smith will easily lock down the likes of Malcolm Mitchell or Chris Hogan, and whichever corner is stuck opposite of whomever Tavon and Jimmy aren't covering will likely receive safety help.
I don't wish to belabor the point, but Rob Gronkowski's absence coupled with Martellus Bennett's injuries mean there isn't a tight end on the Patriots' roster that will require a double team. That is incredibly huge for the Ravens as it should free them up to get more creative with blitzing safeties and linebackers. Tom Brady has worked to increase his mobility in recent years, but he's still not fast enough to evade the likes of Suggs, Dumervil, and Matt Judon (hell, even Timmy Jernigan). The Ravens tend to struggle more against mobile quarterbacks such as Derek Carr and Dak Prescott. Traditional pocket passers are sitting ducks against this Ravens defense when it's healthy...which it is.
With all of that said, this is sure to be the game of the week and possible one of the best games of the year. The Patriots have all but stamped their ticket to the post season as they sit three games ahead of the second place team in their division with only 4 weeks left in the regular season. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady will, nevertheless, be hungry to win in order to secure the #1 seed and home-field advantage through the playoffs. Both the Chiefs and Raiders currently have 10 wins, and a Patriots win on Monday night would put New England at 11-2 with tough matchups against the Broncos, Jets, and Dolphins remaining. The Patriots, in other words, don't NEED this win, but they certainly want it.
The Ravens don't necessarily need a win this weekend to get into the playoffs or even to win their division. The Broncos once appeared a lock to make the playoffs, but key injuries have left them 4-4 in their last 8 games after a red-hot 4-0 start to the season. More importantly, the Broncos win last week was an uninspired 20-10 victory over one of the worst teams in the league. The Broncos are currently 8-4 and one game ahead of the Ravens, but the Broncos face the Titans, Patriots, Chiefs, and Raiders to finish their season and they could easily go 1-3 or even 0-4 during that stretch to finish 8-8 or 9-7. The Ravens' remaining schedule isn't a cakewalk, but two of the four teams left on their schedule are teams they've already beaten soundly, and the Eagles are now one of the worst teams in the league after having dropped 7 of their last 9 games including last week's embarrassing 32-14 loss to the equally disappointing Bengals. The Ravens would need only to handle the Eagles and then one of their other remaining opponents to finish 9-7, and that could very well secure the a wildcard spot ahead of the Broncos.
If the Ravens can manage to beat the Patriots, Eagles, and Steelers, they will have clinched their division and a home playoff game. They could, in that scenario, sit their starters against the Bengals to get as healthy as possible leading into a post-season run exactly the way they did in 2012. The Ravens could also beat the Eagles, Steelers, and Bengals but lose to the Patriots and still win the division, but that wouldn't afford them the ability to sit their starters in the final week of the regular season. One thing is clear now though: the Ravens no longer necessarily need to win their division to secure a spot in the post-season.
Almost just as important as securing a playoff berth will be showing themselves and the league that the Ravens can beat a top team on the road in a hostile, playoff style, road environment. The low for Monday night will be 27 degrees with no precipitation. Baltimore City is no stranger to cold weather, so the Ravens tend not to find themselves overwhelmed by playing in the cold, but this will certainly be a test for many of the rookie starters. Tom Brady is still one of the absolute best in the game, and he passes with surgical precision and a lightning fast release. The Ravens will, themselves have to execute at a high level to score on a quality Patriots defense. This game isn't about fearing defeat at the hands of an elite team. The Ravens have faced the most elite teams in the league all season. This is about proving this team is worthy of a post-season run, and I know that every single player in purple is excited to show the country just how this team can be. And now let's take a look at this week's picks!
WEEK 14 NFL PICKS
STEELERS AT BILLS- There was a time in the not-too-distant past where I thought this would be a great chance for the Steelers to lose. After the Bills' epic collapse in Oakland last week, however, I no longer regard them as a major threat to take down the Steelers. The Steelers didn't exactly blow anyone away with their performance against the Giants, but they played well enough to beat an 8-3 team, and that's still a serious accomplishment. The Steelers defense is starting to step up a bit, and their offense is beginning to regain its footing after the midseason skid. I'll be rooting for Tyrod to bounce back, but my brain tells me the Steelers will get their 8th win this weekend. I reeeeally hope I'm wrong about this one. STEELERS 27-20
BRONCOS AT TITANS- The Broncos have been the better team this season, but the Titans have scored the 8th most points in the NFL this season, and they'll face a Broncos missing its starting inside linebacker and a starting quarterback dealing with some injury issues of his own. With Brandon Marshal out, expect the Titans to run DeMarco Murray right at the vaunted Broncos defense. The Broncos are so desperate at the running back position that they signed poor Justin Forsett who has already been cut by two other teams this season, thus proving that he truly has passed his brief, but inspiring prime with the Ravens in 2014. The Broncos defense will fight valiantly, but their offense likely won't be able to put up enough points to beat a strong Titans offense in Nashville. TITANS 24-21
REDSKINS AT EAGLES- The Redskins have struggled a bit as of late, but they've played far more difficult opponents than they nearly useless Eagles. Ryan Matthews extended absence with a badly sprained MCL leaves the Eagles with too few weapons to beat a quality opponent. Hell, they weren't winning games BEFORE Matthews went down. The Redskins offense will put up a monster first half that the Eagles simply won't be able to overcome. REDSKINS 34-20
CARDINALS AT DOLPHINS- Despite their win last week over the Redskins, the Cardinals have still dropped 3 of their last 5 games and 2 of their last 3. More importantly, the only team they've beaten on the road this season was the 49ers. The Dolphins will be looking to rebound after a crushing road loss last week, and with Tyrann Mathieu contemplating surgery on this shoulder, Tannehill should have an easier time moving the football. Kiko Alonso and Mario Williams will both be out for this game so it's on the Dolphins offense to simply outgun that of the Cardinals. Miami is a terrific home team, and the Cardinals have basically no shot at the playoffs. DOLPHINS 26-19.
CHARGERS AT PANTHERS- It's been another one of those years for the Chargers. They're good enough to hang with winning teams, but they have lost a ton of one score games. In fact, now that I look at it, the Chargers have had arguably the toughest schedule in the NFL. The Panthers will again be without Luke Kuechly again, and I have a feeling Philip Rivers will simply outpace their scoring. The Panthers don't have good enough defensive backs to slow down Rivers and company. CHARGERS 28-21
BENGALS AT BROWNS- I'm interested to see what RG3 does, but I can't see the Browns breaking their losing streak against a Bengals team that is unquestionably better. Familiarity, especially with Hue Jackson, keeps this one close. BENGALS 23-17
BEAR AT LIONS- The Lions have actually shaped up to be a pretty serious team. The Bear's should consider tanking the rest of the season in order to hopefully draft their next franchise QB. LIONS 30-14
TEXANS AT COLTS- The Colts with Andrew Luck healthy appear to be back in business. The Texans, on the other hand, appear to be trending sharply downward. The Texans beat the Colts in Houston earlier this season 26-23, but this matchup in Indy should tilt in the Colts' favor. COLTS 31-24
VIKINGS AT JAGUARS- The Vikings may not be what they had hoped they'd be at this point in the season, but they're unquestionably stronger than the Jags. VIKINGS 24-13
JETS AT 49ERS- Oh for the love of god. Why wasn't this game cancelled? Do I HAVE to pick a winner? Both teams looked useless in their games last week. I guess Ryan Fitzpatrick liable to have a decent game every now and then and his receivers might be able to put something together against a terrible 49ers secondary. JETS 21-17
SAINTS AT BUCCANEERS- Drew Brees and company area fading fast. Jameis Winston, by contrast, has put together a 4-game winning streak that featured two major wins over two top NFC playoff contenders in the Chiefs and Seahawks. The Saints have lost three of their last 4 games and are nearly mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. New Orleans is also 2-3 on the road this season. BUCCANEERS 33-28
FALCONS AT RAMS- The Falcons are still in the hunt for the playoffs at 7-5. They should have more than enough firepower to outscore a Rams team that ranks dead last in the NFL in offensive production. FALCONS 38-17
SEAHAWKS AT PACKERS- I'm not buying the Packers' recent success as an indication that Aaron Rodgers has finally gotten back on track. The Eagles proved last week in their blowout loss to the Bengals that they're easily one of the worst teams in the league, so Green Bay's win in Philly shouldn't mean much about the strength of the Pack. The Packers' win last week over the Texans doesn't impress me much either considering it was in the snow in Green Bay against a team that usually practices in Texas weather. Rodgers may be able to take advantage of Earl Thomas' absence, but I can't see the Packers' defense stopping Russell Wilson and his superior group of offensive weapons. SEAHAWKS 35-26
COWBOYS AT GIANTS- The Giants likely need only to win two of their four remain games in order to earn a playoff berth. The problem is that they have 3 divisional games and the Lions remaining. The Cowboys are better than when they faces Eli and company in Week 1. Dak Prescott has quickly evolved into an efficient, dynamic playmaker. The Giants defense doesn't have what it takes, especially without Jason Pierre Paul, to content with the likes of the Cowboys O line. The Cowboys will simply outlast the Giants the way they have with everyone else. COWBOYS 28-24
RAVENS AT PATRIOTS- The Patriots have been an excellent team this season, but they're simply not a good matchup for the Ravens with their current level of health. Gronkowski's absence and Martellus Bennett's ineffectiveness due to injuries means that the Patriots have nursed tiny leads against horrible teams over the last 3 weeks. The Ravens are as healthy as they've been all season, and when they're healthy, they don't lose. LaGarrette Blount won't find success running against the Ravens defensive front on first or second down. Blount's 13 rushing TDs came almost exclusively while Rob Gronkowski was on the field to draw away linebacker coverage. While Gronk played through the first 9 games, Blount scored 12 touchdowns. In the last three weeks, however, Blount has been held to a total of one rushing touchdown. If Blount couldn't pound the ball in against the 49ers and Jets, how in the world could fans expect him to do so against the Ravens? Eleven of the Patriots' twenty-three passing touchdowns this season were completed to players who are either currently injured or done for the season. The remaining 4 receivers combine for 12 touchdowns this season, and Malcolm Mitchell is the only one with more than a single touchdown catch over the past three weeks. The Ravens pass rushers will feast on Brady as he no longer has a single elite target to which he can consistently throw on third down. Edelman, Hogan, and Mitchell make up one of the least daunting receiving trios the Ravens have faced this season. Steve Smith Sr., Mike Wallace, and Breshad Perriman, on the other hand, will make life hell for the Patriots if they can't find a way to get to Joe Flacco quickly and often. Oh, and if the Dolphins vaunted pass rushers couldn't get to Flacco with the way his offensive line has been protecting him recently, don't expect the Patriots to be able to do it--especially after they let go of Jamie Collins weeks ago. These teams might meet against in the playoffs, and the Patriots might be healthier at that point, but at this moment, the Ravens are the stronger team...they've just gotta prove it. Oh, and I fully expect 4 critical field goals from Justin Tucker. Call me a homer, but I simply don't see the weapons necessary to move the ball consistently on this Ravens defense.
RAVENS 26-20
THIS IS WHAT IT'S ALL ABOUT, RAVENS FANS. JOE, TERRELL AND THE BOYS ENTERING HOSTILE ENEMY TERRITORY AND BATTLING FOR AFC DOMINANCE. THERE'S NO BETTER LATE-SEASON RIVALRY IN FOOTBALL THE RAVENS AND PATRIOTS.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
A team is only as good as the players it puts on the field on any given week, and injuries are dramatically more common and severe in the NFL than they are in professional soccer and basketball. Sure, it's possible to tear one's ACL or collide with another player in low-impact activities, but the injury report of an NFL roster is a constantly evolving entity. The team that comes out on top in pro football isn't necessarily the one that looked most dominant over the course of the season, but instead it's often the team that entered the post-season with the healthiest, strongest roster.
Sometimes a team can go much of the regular season without major integral pieces to their lineup, and then an impact player returns healthy and raring to go just in time for week 1 of the playoffs. That certainly happened for the Giants in 2011/2012 season as Osi Umeniyora returned to give the Giants a major pass rushing boost just in time to help them upset the reigning champion Packers and ultimately overcome the Patriots in one of the most gripping Super Bowls ever played.
The Ravens experienced a similar boost the following season as Bryant McKinney returned as left tackle which shifted Michael Oher back over to his natural right tackle position. The Ravens, however, also had a host of other major changes that led to their upswing in performance during the post-season. Many forget that Anquan Boldin actually had a torn meniscus and had to sit out the final two games of the season. Boldin fought mightily through the pain of his torn meniscus all throughout the regular season, but getting the knee scoped and having two weeks to heal led to an incredible rejuvenation of his ability to dominate as soon as the first game of the playoffs arrived. Boldin embarrassed the Colts with a 155 receiving yard performance, and he ultimately led all receivers through the playoffs in yardage and touchdowns.
The post-season has not yet arrived, and the Ravens have not yet solidified their status as AFC North champions. They are, however, getting healthy in time for what many assumed would be the toughest stretch on their schedule. There's no question that playing the Patriots in Foxboro typically represents one of the biggest challenges in professional sports. The Pats have maintained an incredibly high standard of performance for an unfathomable amount of time given the amount of roster turnover from year to year in the NFL. The Patriots also bolster one of the best, if not THE best, home-field advantages in the league. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have also often found a way to win football games in the absence of key personnel. They won without Tom Brady for three out of their first four games, and won last week despite the absence of Rob Gronkowski. It's important, however, that we consider exactly who the Patriots beat without Gronk, and how they've fared since the All-Pro tight tend first injured himself against the Seahawks.
The Patriots haven't lost a game since facing Seattle four weeks ago, but their schedule since then hasn't exactly been daunting. After the Seahawks, the Patriots faced the 49ers, the Jets, and the Rams. Those teams have COMBINED for a total of 8 wins, while the Ravens destroyed a red-hot Dolphins team last week that has 7 wins. Beating up on the Dolphins doesn't mean the Ravens are invincible from here on out, but it illustrates perfectly the point that a team's record means far less than the current status and health of their players as well as their most recent performances. The Dolphins, for example, had just managed to barely beat two of the same bottom-feeding opponents that the Patriots faced in recent weeks in the 49ers and Rams. When we took the injury issues of Miami into consideration and factored in the return of Jimmy Smith and Elvis Dumervil as well as blocking tight end Nick Boyle, it wasn't difficult to predict a solid win for Baltimore.
The Patriots certainly handled the 49ers and Rams far better than the Dolphins did, but they struggled to pull away from a reeling Jets team. Part of that can be attributed to divisional familiarity, but another part was undoubtedly Gronk's limitation and ultimately his exit due to his back injury that turned out to require surgery for a bulging disk. Many assumed that former Pro Bowl tight end Martellus Bennett would help mitigate the damage of Gronk's exit, but Bennett was ultimately forced to leave the game as well. Tom Brady, instead, utilized a solid 91 yard rushing performance from the combo of LaGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis along with decent receiving production from Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, and rookie Malcolm Mitchell. All 5 of those players will take the field Monday night, but not one of them represents an elite receiving or rushing threat. Sure, Blount has over 900 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns, but much of that has been due to teams committing so much of their personnel to stopping the likes of Gronk.
The Ravens have faced Ezekiel Elliott, Le'Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy, Jay Ajayi, Sammy Watkins, Amari Cooper, Dez Bryant, DeSean Jackson, O'Dell Beckham Jr., Antonio Brown, Allen Hurns, and Jarvis Landry. Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell, LaGarrette Blount, Dion Lewis, and a hobbled Martellus Bennett don't exactly leave the Ravens shaking in their cleats. The Dolphins, for example, ended up having all three of their potent wide receiver trio last week along with an incredibly talented Jay Ajayi. Ajayi showed burst and the ability to break tackles, but he was still held to 61 yards. The Dolphins secondary that ranked 9th in the league had absolutely no answer for the Ravens receiving corps. Joe Flacco spread the ball out to a total of 10 receivers, and four of those receivers had in excess of 50 yards with Dennis Pitta leading the way at 90. It didn't matter that the likes of Cameron Wake and Ndamakong Suh attempted to get to Flacco's blind side all day; the Ravens kept Joe clean and Marty Mornhinweg prepared an ingenious play script designed to attack the middle of the field with tight ends while stretching the secondary with speedy wide receivers. The Dolphins couldn't key in on any particular player because Joe spread the ball out so incredibly evenly. It was a pick-your-poison situation.
The Patriots in Foxboro are unquestionably a more difficult opponent than the Dolphins playing in Baltimore. Bill Belichick is the craftiest coach of a generation, possibly of all time. The Patriots are 10-2 and leading their division. They rank in the top ten in both offense and defense, and they're tied in points allowed on the season with none other than the Baltimore Ravens. That hasn't stopped, however, the likes of the 49ers and Jets from keeping scores close with the Patriots all the way up until 4th quarters of their respective games. The Patriots, for example, only led the 49ers 13-10 entering the 4th quarter, and they entered the 4th quarter 13-10 against the Jets too. Credit must be given to the Patriots for winning, but the loss of Gronkowski has certainly taken away the edge and killer instinct the Patriots had earlier this season when they beat up on the Steelers, Texans, and Bills.
From a statistical standpoint, the Patriots averaged 34 points per game with Brady and Gronkowski both playing and healthy. Once Gronk took the hellacious shot that ultimately led to the premature end to his season, the Patriots' scoring average dropped to 25.5 points per game. The Ravens defense, meanwhile, has absolutely suffocated opponents recently. Without Jimmy Smith and Elvis Dumervil, the Ravens struggled to stop Dez Bryant and get pressure on Dak Prescott. Dumervil's return the following week led to a ferocious upswing in pressure on Andy Dalton, and Jimmy Smith's return the week after that led to a nearly flawless defensive shutdown of a Dolphins offense with an impressive array of weapons. Now the Ravens face a Patriots team with fewer impact offensive players that has struggled to pull away from some absolutely horrible teams as of late.
Conventional wisdom would suggest that it's unwise to bet against the Patriots at home, but the Ravens must've missed the memo on that one. Joe Flacco is 2-2 against the Patriots in the playoffs, and even in losses, Flacco has played as well or better than Brady. Let's for a second, examine the last loss to the Patriots, shall we? The Ravens last lost to the Pats in the playoffs of the 2014 season, and mismatch issues were glaring. The Ravens twice held 14 point leads, but their stable of cornerbacks simply couldn't stop the likes of Edelman, Amendola, and Brandon LaFell. Gronkowkski was healthy and dominant with 108 receiving yards, and the combination of Brandon Browner and Darrelle Revis helped to halt key Ravens drives. Baltimore ultimately fell short as Flacco threw a game-sealing pick intended for Torrey Smith who disappointingly and lazily didn't make a serious attempt to either catch the ball of bat down the pass. Jimmy Smith wasn't active as his season had ended months earlier with a foot injury, and the Ravens were left starting an ailing Lardarius Webb and undrafted rookie Rashaan Melvin at corner.
Now compare THAT matchup to THIS matchup. No Gronkowski, no LaFell, and no Darrelle Revis. Jamie Collins is gone, and unlike that last matchup two seasons ago, the Ravens defense is absolutely stacked and healthy. The Ravens added the top rated safety in the league, Eric Weddle, they got Jimmy Smith back healthy, and drafted starting corner Tavon Young who has played energetic, inspired football for months now. Even Lardarius Webb has elevated his game as of late in his conversion to safety as he snagged what could easily be considered the interception of the year last week at the edge of the endzone. Jimmy Smith has sometimes struggled against Edelman, but Tavon Young should stay with him quite well as he has been a fantastic match for smaller, shifty receivers. Smith will easily lock down the likes of Malcolm Mitchell or Chris Hogan, and whichever corner is stuck opposite of whomever Tavon and Jimmy aren't covering will likely receive safety help.
I don't wish to belabor the point, but Rob Gronkowski's absence coupled with Martellus Bennett's injuries mean there isn't a tight end on the Patriots' roster that will require a double team. That is incredibly huge for the Ravens as it should free them up to get more creative with blitzing safeties and linebackers. Tom Brady has worked to increase his mobility in recent years, but he's still not fast enough to evade the likes of Suggs, Dumervil, and Matt Judon (hell, even Timmy Jernigan). The Ravens tend to struggle more against mobile quarterbacks such as Derek Carr and Dak Prescott. Traditional pocket passers are sitting ducks against this Ravens defense when it's healthy...which it is.
With all of that said, this is sure to be the game of the week and possible one of the best games of the year. The Patriots have all but stamped their ticket to the post season as they sit three games ahead of the second place team in their division with only 4 weeks left in the regular season. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady will, nevertheless, be hungry to win in order to secure the #1 seed and home-field advantage through the playoffs. Both the Chiefs and Raiders currently have 10 wins, and a Patriots win on Monday night would put New England at 11-2 with tough matchups against the Broncos, Jets, and Dolphins remaining. The Patriots, in other words, don't NEED this win, but they certainly want it.
The Ravens don't necessarily need a win this weekend to get into the playoffs or even to win their division. The Broncos once appeared a lock to make the playoffs, but key injuries have left them 4-4 in their last 8 games after a red-hot 4-0 start to the season. More importantly, the Broncos win last week was an uninspired 20-10 victory over one of the worst teams in the league. The Broncos are currently 8-4 and one game ahead of the Ravens, but the Broncos face the Titans, Patriots, Chiefs, and Raiders to finish their season and they could easily go 1-3 or even 0-4 during that stretch to finish 8-8 or 9-7. The Ravens' remaining schedule isn't a cakewalk, but two of the four teams left on their schedule are teams they've already beaten soundly, and the Eagles are now one of the worst teams in the league after having dropped 7 of their last 9 games including last week's embarrassing 32-14 loss to the equally disappointing Bengals. The Ravens would need only to handle the Eagles and then one of their other remaining opponents to finish 9-7, and that could very well secure the a wildcard spot ahead of the Broncos.
If the Ravens can manage to beat the Patriots, Eagles, and Steelers, they will have clinched their division and a home playoff game. They could, in that scenario, sit their starters against the Bengals to get as healthy as possible leading into a post-season run exactly the way they did in 2012. The Ravens could also beat the Eagles, Steelers, and Bengals but lose to the Patriots and still win the division, but that wouldn't afford them the ability to sit their starters in the final week of the regular season. One thing is clear now though: the Ravens no longer necessarily need to win their division to secure a spot in the post-season.
Almost just as important as securing a playoff berth will be showing themselves and the league that the Ravens can beat a top team on the road in a hostile, playoff style, road environment. The low for Monday night will be 27 degrees with no precipitation. Baltimore City is no stranger to cold weather, so the Ravens tend not to find themselves overwhelmed by playing in the cold, but this will certainly be a test for many of the rookie starters. Tom Brady is still one of the absolute best in the game, and he passes with surgical precision and a lightning fast release. The Ravens will, themselves have to execute at a high level to score on a quality Patriots defense. This game isn't about fearing defeat at the hands of an elite team. The Ravens have faced the most elite teams in the league all season. This is about proving this team is worthy of a post-season run, and I know that every single player in purple is excited to show the country just how this team can be. And now let's take a look at this week's picks!
WEEK 14 NFL PICKS
STEELERS AT BILLS- There was a time in the not-too-distant past where I thought this would be a great chance for the Steelers to lose. After the Bills' epic collapse in Oakland last week, however, I no longer regard them as a major threat to take down the Steelers. The Steelers didn't exactly blow anyone away with their performance against the Giants, but they played well enough to beat an 8-3 team, and that's still a serious accomplishment. The Steelers defense is starting to step up a bit, and their offense is beginning to regain its footing after the midseason skid. I'll be rooting for Tyrod to bounce back, but my brain tells me the Steelers will get their 8th win this weekend. I reeeeally hope I'm wrong about this one. STEELERS 27-20
BRONCOS AT TITANS- The Broncos have been the better team this season, but the Titans have scored the 8th most points in the NFL this season, and they'll face a Broncos missing its starting inside linebacker and a starting quarterback dealing with some injury issues of his own. With Brandon Marshal out, expect the Titans to run DeMarco Murray right at the vaunted Broncos defense. The Broncos are so desperate at the running back position that they signed poor Justin Forsett who has already been cut by two other teams this season, thus proving that he truly has passed his brief, but inspiring prime with the Ravens in 2014. The Broncos defense will fight valiantly, but their offense likely won't be able to put up enough points to beat a strong Titans offense in Nashville. TITANS 24-21
REDSKINS AT EAGLES- The Redskins have struggled a bit as of late, but they've played far more difficult opponents than they nearly useless Eagles. Ryan Matthews extended absence with a badly sprained MCL leaves the Eagles with too few weapons to beat a quality opponent. Hell, they weren't winning games BEFORE Matthews went down. The Redskins offense will put up a monster first half that the Eagles simply won't be able to overcome. REDSKINS 34-20
CARDINALS AT DOLPHINS- Despite their win last week over the Redskins, the Cardinals have still dropped 3 of their last 5 games and 2 of their last 3. More importantly, the only team they've beaten on the road this season was the 49ers. The Dolphins will be looking to rebound after a crushing road loss last week, and with Tyrann Mathieu contemplating surgery on this shoulder, Tannehill should have an easier time moving the football. Kiko Alonso and Mario Williams will both be out for this game so it's on the Dolphins offense to simply outgun that of the Cardinals. Miami is a terrific home team, and the Cardinals have basically no shot at the playoffs. DOLPHINS 26-19.
CHARGERS AT PANTHERS- It's been another one of those years for the Chargers. They're good enough to hang with winning teams, but they have lost a ton of one score games. In fact, now that I look at it, the Chargers have had arguably the toughest schedule in the NFL. The Panthers will again be without Luke Kuechly again, and I have a feeling Philip Rivers will simply outpace their scoring. The Panthers don't have good enough defensive backs to slow down Rivers and company. CHARGERS 28-21
BENGALS AT BROWNS- I'm interested to see what RG3 does, but I can't see the Browns breaking their losing streak against a Bengals team that is unquestionably better. Familiarity, especially with Hue Jackson, keeps this one close. BENGALS 23-17
BEAR AT LIONS- The Lions have actually shaped up to be a pretty serious team. The Bear's should consider tanking the rest of the season in order to hopefully draft their next franchise QB. LIONS 30-14
TEXANS AT COLTS- The Colts with Andrew Luck healthy appear to be back in business. The Texans, on the other hand, appear to be trending sharply downward. The Texans beat the Colts in Houston earlier this season 26-23, but this matchup in Indy should tilt in the Colts' favor. COLTS 31-24
VIKINGS AT JAGUARS- The Vikings may not be what they had hoped they'd be at this point in the season, but they're unquestionably stronger than the Jags. VIKINGS 24-13
JETS AT 49ERS- Oh for the love of god. Why wasn't this game cancelled? Do I HAVE to pick a winner? Both teams looked useless in their games last week. I guess Ryan Fitzpatrick liable to have a decent game every now and then and his receivers might be able to put something together against a terrible 49ers secondary. JETS 21-17
SAINTS AT BUCCANEERS- Drew Brees and company area fading fast. Jameis Winston, by contrast, has put together a 4-game winning streak that featured two major wins over two top NFC playoff contenders in the Chiefs and Seahawks. The Saints have lost three of their last 4 games and are nearly mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. New Orleans is also 2-3 on the road this season. BUCCANEERS 33-28
FALCONS AT RAMS- The Falcons are still in the hunt for the playoffs at 7-5. They should have more than enough firepower to outscore a Rams team that ranks dead last in the NFL in offensive production. FALCONS 38-17
SEAHAWKS AT PACKERS- I'm not buying the Packers' recent success as an indication that Aaron Rodgers has finally gotten back on track. The Eagles proved last week in their blowout loss to the Bengals that they're easily one of the worst teams in the league, so Green Bay's win in Philly shouldn't mean much about the strength of the Pack. The Packers' win last week over the Texans doesn't impress me much either considering it was in the snow in Green Bay against a team that usually practices in Texas weather. Rodgers may be able to take advantage of Earl Thomas' absence, but I can't see the Packers' defense stopping Russell Wilson and his superior group of offensive weapons. SEAHAWKS 35-26
COWBOYS AT GIANTS- The Giants likely need only to win two of their four remain games in order to earn a playoff berth. The problem is that they have 3 divisional games and the Lions remaining. The Cowboys are better than when they faces Eli and company in Week 1. Dak Prescott has quickly evolved into an efficient, dynamic playmaker. The Giants defense doesn't have what it takes, especially without Jason Pierre Paul, to content with the likes of the Cowboys O line. The Cowboys will simply outlast the Giants the way they have with everyone else. COWBOYS 28-24
RAVENS AT PATRIOTS- The Patriots have been an excellent team this season, but they're simply not a good matchup for the Ravens with their current level of health. Gronkowski's absence and Martellus Bennett's ineffectiveness due to injuries means that the Patriots have nursed tiny leads against horrible teams over the last 3 weeks. The Ravens are as healthy as they've been all season, and when they're healthy, they don't lose. LaGarrette Blount won't find success running against the Ravens defensive front on first or second down. Blount's 13 rushing TDs came almost exclusively while Rob Gronkowski was on the field to draw away linebacker coverage. While Gronk played through the first 9 games, Blount scored 12 touchdowns. In the last three weeks, however, Blount has been held to a total of one rushing touchdown. If Blount couldn't pound the ball in against the 49ers and Jets, how in the world could fans expect him to do so against the Ravens? Eleven of the Patriots' twenty-three passing touchdowns this season were completed to players who are either currently injured or done for the season. The remaining 4 receivers combine for 12 touchdowns this season, and Malcolm Mitchell is the only one with more than a single touchdown catch over the past three weeks. The Ravens pass rushers will feast on Brady as he no longer has a single elite target to which he can consistently throw on third down. Edelman, Hogan, and Mitchell make up one of the least daunting receiving trios the Ravens have faced this season. Steve Smith Sr., Mike Wallace, and Breshad Perriman, on the other hand, will make life hell for the Patriots if they can't find a way to get to Joe Flacco quickly and often. Oh, and if the Dolphins vaunted pass rushers couldn't get to Flacco with the way his offensive line has been protecting him recently, don't expect the Patriots to be able to do it--especially after they let go of Jamie Collins weeks ago. These teams might meet against in the playoffs, and the Patriots might be healthier at that point, but at this moment, the Ravens are the stronger team...they've just gotta prove it. Oh, and I fully expect 4 critical field goals from Justin Tucker. Call me a homer, but I simply don't see the weapons necessary to move the ball consistently on this Ravens defense.
RAVENS 26-20
THIS IS WHAT IT'S ALL ABOUT, RAVENS FANS. JOE, TERRELL AND THE BOYS ENTERING HOSTILE ENEMY TERRITORY AND BATTLING FOR AFC DOMINANCE. THERE'S NO BETTER LATE-SEASON RIVALRY IN FOOTBALL THE RAVENS AND PATRIOTS.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
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