I find it hard not to root for the Washington Commanders this season. Not only are they off to a red-hot start through the first five weeks, but their rookie quarterback has lived up to his draft hype and more. No, Jayden Daniels is not Lamar Jackson, nor does he even play with the same general style, but like Lamar, he has already immediately proven himself to be his team's unquestioned MVP.
Comparisons of Jackson and Daniels by sports commentators are rather nonsensical. Daniels is certainly mobile, and he is an effective and even fearless runner when the situation calls for it, but he is simply nowhere near as explosive and shifty as Lamar. With that said, Daniels has a better, more consistent throwing motion, and this is especially evident on deep passes. That is not to say that Lamar is a bad passer, but he still struggles to connect on passes deep downfield, and statistically he is the least accurate deep ball passer of all starting quarterbacks since he entered the league in 2018. Lamar's specialty is, instead, darting short and intermediate passes. Number 8 has demonstrated the ability to squeeze passes into tight windows with a compact throwing motion and a lightning-quick release.
Lamar looked like an absolute superhero against the Bengals last week with highlight reel passes whilst evading and even tossing aside defenders before throwing touchdowns that suddenly prompted many to enter him into this year's MVP discussion. With that said, I must admit that I was still a bit jealous two weeks earlier when the the Commanders themselves faced the Bengals, and Jayden Daniels threw an utterly flawless deep touchdown pass where only Terry McLaurin could get it in the back corner of the end zone. Daniels looked like a polished vet as he fearlessly stood in the pocket and delivered a strike with an outside linebacker bearing down upon him. The deep passing game was the bread and butter of the Ravens offense for over a decade with Joe Flacco, and it helped to take advantage of burner wide receivers such as Torrey Smith, John "Smokey" Brown, and Mike Wallace. For the Commanders, Jayden Daniels' ability to make virtually any throw helps to finally take advantage of the speed of Terry McLaurin, who has waited 6 years to finally catch passes from a serious quarterback. The Ravens currently possess a solidly speedy wide receiving corps of their own with the likes of Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and Nelson Agholor, and if Lamar could finally develop good chemistry with them on go routes, a new dimension would be added to an already ferocious Ravens offense.
The Ravens offense is, in fact, so devastating at the moment, that it currently ranks #1 in the NFL by yardage with a staggering 447.6 yards per game, but it ranks 2nd in the NFL in points with 29.4 per game. The team with the highest average points per game in the league right now is none other than the Washington Commanders with 31. Perhaps the Ravens have played a somewhat tougher string of opponents thus far, but if we're comparing performances against a common opponent, in this case the Bengals, the Commanders actually won their game in slightly more convincing fashion. The Ravens beat the Bengals, but they needed a botched hold on what turned into a missed Bengals field goal in overtime to do it. There's truly no question that the Commanders have found a rhythm and an identity as an offensive power this season, and in that regard, they're quite similar to the Ravens.
Offensive might isn't the only thing these two teams have in common. They both rank in the bottom half of the league in points allowed; the Commanders have allowed 23 and the Ravens have given up 25.2 per game. As exciting as their respective offenses have been, because of their defensive shortcomings, both teams' respective total point differentials on the year aren't outrageously impressive. With that said, the Commanders’ last two wins were dominant with a 42-14 victory over the Cardinals and 34-13 win over the confusingly but amusingly awful Cleveland Browns. The Ravens have had one dominant win over a Bills team recently plagued by a rash of injuries, but every other game has been won or lost by a razor-thin margin. The Commanders defense seems to be improving as of late, but no such luck for Baltimore.
Baltimore's secondary on paper appeared to be arguably the deepest, most talented position group on the team coming into this season. They appeared to have excellent depth at corner and a strong pair of starting safeties, but something has simply been off. Blown assignments and poor communication have led to calamitous breakdowns in coverage that have made the Ravens susceptible to giving up big plays. The Ravens no longer rely on Marlon Humphrey to be their stud shutdown corner, but he's still out there and has been picked on badly at times. I have maintained that the loss of Jadeveon Clowney in free agency was the biggest reason that 2024 Ravens defense has looked virtually nothing like the historic 2023 Ravens defense that was the first in NFL history to lead the league in sacks, fewest points per game, and turnovers. Clowney not only consistently put fierce pressure on quarterbacks even when he didn't get a sack, he was also an elite run defender with fantastic grades by Pro Football Focus. Clowney's departure has had far-reaching ripple effects to every level of the defense, and it doesn't help that the Ravens have a new defensive coordinator who hasn't had the start we all hoped he would.
Baltimore almost certainly won't go on a deep playoff run this season, or any season for that matter, without a strong defense, and if they're going to right the ship on that side of the ball, this would be the week to prove it against the top scoring offense in the league coming off of two blowout wins. Baltimore has a history of terrorizing rookie quarterbacks, but this quarterback isn't playing like a rookie. The Commanders, however, will be without a critical piece to their offense when they take the field on Sunday. Starting running back Brian Robinson Jr. will be out with a knee injury. This is a significant loss as Robinson has already had 5 rushing touchdowns and 325 rushing yards this season. Austin Ekeler will be the starting back, and he's no slouch, but it would have been far better for the Commanders to head into Charm City with a full array of weapons.
The Ravens will be without two defensive starters in Malik Harrison and Broderick Washington, but they're mostly healthy otherwise. Both teams are quite healthy compared to the rest of the league right now, so whichever team emerges victorious will do so knowing it beat a top 10 opponent in the league that entered a he game at nearly full strength.
PREDICTION
This isn't much of a road game for the Commanders from a travel distance standpoint even though it will be in a loud road environment. M&T Bank stadium will undoubtedly have a sizeable number of Commanders fans to neutralize out the crowd noise advantage a bit. The Ravens defense might look stout in the first half as it has against numerous other opponents this season, but the Commanders will likely make this a close, high-scoring contest with a good chunk of their production coming in the second half . The deciding factor, however, will be the Ravens ability to control the ball with a healthy dose of Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson spreading the ball out to more receiving weapons than any team could reasonably attempt to cover. The Commanders could do everything they can to contain Lamar and load up the box to stop Derrick Henry, but Lamar will simply shred them with Zay Flowers, Isaiah Likely, Rashod Bateman, Justice Hill, and perhaps a timely catch or two for Mark Andrews. This one will be close, but the Ravens offense appears to simply have more options and a better ability to control the clock.
RAVENS 38-31
A loss for either team this week won't be devastating, but this game will tell us much about the true strength level of both franchises . The only tragedy is that this isn't going to be a primetime game. Who knows? Perhaps this will usher in a renewed local rivalry…
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