There has been quite a great deal of hype surrounding young, athletic, mobile quarterbacks this season. I've heard plenty of talk in the media that the read-option offense is going to be the wave of the future and that traditional pocket passers will be a thing of the past sometime in the near future. I certainly haven't bought into such talk, though, and there are good reasons as to why.
The first reason is the most obvious: a high reliance on mobile quarterbacks running the football puts the athlete at an incredible risk for season-ending or season-altering injury. Michael Vick has long been a prime example of this, but Robert Griffin III is the most recent example to show that Vick is no sort of anomally. Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick haven't suffered any major injuries this season, but it's likely only a matter of time until they do. It's not that these types of athletes aren't talented and explosive, it's just that the rules of the NFL don't protect runners. There are rules that protect quarterbacks behind the line of scrimmage, and there are rules that protect receivers, but you won't see flags thrown for helmet to helmet hits on someone who crosses the line of scrimmage with the football tucked against their body.
Safety isn't the only downside to having a quarterback that runs the ball so often. One of the things that makes many quarterbacks elite is their ability to step up into the pocket and make throws even with pressure bearing down upon them. Extremely speedy, athletic quarterbacks often get overconfident in their ability to outrun pass rushers, and will give up on throwing the ball too quickly and attempt to run for a first down. This can sometimes be successful, but it seems to hold such quarterbacks back from truly developing a pocket presence and possibly even chemistry with their receivers.
Mobility in a quarterback certainly isn't a bad thing on its own. An agile quarterback with good footwork such as Aaron Rodgers commands enough speed to run for a first down when necessary, but he also has the restraint and sound judgement to know when it's safe to run and when to simply use his athleticism to extend the play and complete a pass instead of crossing the line of scrimmage as a runner. Rodgers isn't alone in this skill set. As much as I loathe him, Ben Roethlisberger has demonstrated time and again the ability to use his mobility and judgement to get out of the pocket in order to give himself more time to complete passes downfield. Lord knows I'm no fan of Tony Romo, but he also often displays this talent.
The major difference between the Romos, Roethlisbergers, and Rodgers of the world and the Kaepernicks, Wilsons, and Griffins is that the first three men listed know they're not necessarily fast enough to outrun everyone chasing them. They know they can buy more time with a few moves, but ultimately, they're looking to get the ball into the hands of faster players downfield. Robert Griffin III and Colin Kaepernick, on the other hand, know they ARE some of the fastest men on any given field, and don't hesitate to prove it. The problem is, however, that being a faster athlete doesn't always mean one can avoid the crushing blow of a defender with a good angle and a good 150 pounds on you...just ask RG3 what it feels like to get hit by 350 pound Haloti Ngata.
The underlying reason for this rant against running quarterbacks is my own personal issue with the idea that the 49ers should be favored going into the Super Bowl. I know that the Ravens couldn't care less about whether they're favored by pundits or oddsmakers (it sounds as though they actually relish the underdog role), but my own examination of statistics and key factors leading up to this game leads me to question why people are so incredibly high on the 49ers and still doubtful of the Ravens.
I have not yet finished compiling and analyzing statistics for the upcoming Super Bowl, so please don't expect a final prediction in this post. I have, however, come across some interesting and obvious facts in the early stages of my examination of both teams, and almost all of them lead me to wonder why the Ravens aren't at least 3 point favorites in this game.
The first obvious observation is that the 49ers defense has performed quite poorly thus far in the playoffs. The 49ers defense was able to hold the Falcons offense scoreless in the second half of the NFC Championship, but that was after easily surrendering 24 first half points to Matty Ice and company. It was mostly Colin Kaepernick and the offense that allowed the 49ers to win both of the playoff games they've played thus far, but that offense was going against two defenses that were clearly ill-equipped to stop them. Regardless, the 49ers allowed an average of 27.5 points per game in this post-season, and that doesn't bode well for them against a Ravens team that has averaged 30 points per game and 33 points per game on the road. Hell, the Ravens' highest scoring game was against a Broncos team with the #3 ranked pass defense and #3 ranked run defense in the league.
One of the top defenses in the league couldn't stop the Ravens offense far away from Baltimore, and its no secret that major changes have occured within the last two months to allow for such production regardless of the venue in which the Ravens play. It's difficult to point to one major factor and say that it's the strongest reason for the Ravens recent offensive success. There are, rather, three major factors of equal importance that combined to produce such an explosive unit. The first, of course, was the firing of Cam Cameron and promotion of Jim Caldwell to offensive coordinator. Jim gets plays called more quickly and intelligently than Cam Cameron. Also, unlike with Cam, the Ravens players have faith and a good rapport with Caldwell, and gives Flacco and his targets a great deal of confidence. The second reason is the current state of the offensive line. Marshal Yanda is once again healthy, and the movement of Bryant McKinney to left tackle, Michael Oher to right tackle, and Kelechi Osemele to left guard has meant plenty of time and protection in the pocket for Joe Flacco.
That brings us to reason #3: Joe Flacco has been absolutely dominant with the football in his hands. Reasons #1 and #2 give Joe Flacco the type of circumstances that allow him to fully take advantage of his talents. With plenty of time in the pocket and better play calling, Joe Flacco is able to use his arm strength and precision to tear opposing secondaries to shreds. Play calling also helps to remind defenses that they must defend against the Ravens rushing attack as Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce combine to form a dangerous complimentary running back tandem. With weapons everywhere you look and fantastic offensive line performance and play calling, the Ravens now possess the most balanced, explosive offense in team history. They can score quickly when needed, they can go on long grinding drives to keep the clock moving, and they can get into the endzone regardless of the strength of the defense staring back at them.
The 49ers will ultimately have trouble stopping the Ravens' offense. They might be able to halt the running game early, but when the game is on the line, the Ravens protect Joe Flacco long enough for some of the NFL's speediest receivers to get open. Oh, and let's not forget that if a team tries to blanket Torrey Smith with double coverage, they leave the middle of the field wide open for Dennis Pitta and Anquan Boldin.
With all of that said in favor of the Ravens, the 49ers still do possess their own set weapons. Vernon Davis commands the greatest combination of size, speed, and strength among all NFL tight ends, and Michael Crabtree has developed into a good wideout over the last couple of years. Randy Moss still has the height and hands to make the occassional play, and let's not forget how well Frank Gore has been running as of late. The problem is that the Ravens just finished beating two other teams with better quarterbacks and far more impressive offensive weapons. The Ravens' corners shouldn't have incredible trouble with Michael Crabtree, and they were able to render Vernon Davis useless fairly easily last season. As for Randy Moss, he simply no longer possesses the speed to get behind a secondary of the Ravens' caliber, and Kaepernick may find himself on the receiving end of some big hits from Ravens pass rushers if he takes the time to attempt long throws downfield.
My ultimate Super Bowl prediction will likely boil down to matchups. I'll won't draw much from the 49ers' domination of the Packers in San Francisco because the Super Bowl isn't being held there. I'll draw more conclusions from last week's game against the Falcons because it will feature a similar dome and road environment. I have a sneaking suspicion, however, that many of my conclusions will stem from somewhat earlier games where the 49ers struggled to score. Falcons' defense, after all, struggled repeatedly to maintain sizeable leads in the second half of games.
The Ravens, on the other hand, displayed the ability to actually become better on defense after halftime. This is likely because of a combination of wisdom and experience amongst veteran Ravens defenders along with a coaching staff that knows exactly how to make the necessary adjustments to slow down virtually any offense.
Also, if you're thinking to yourself something to the effect of "well the Ravens just faced two pocket passing quarterbacks that tend to throw the ball a lot, and they haven't played a team that can pound the ball like the 49ers" you would be wrong. The Ravens just beat the 7th ranked Patriots rush offense last weekend, and had the physicality to knock one of the most league's most explosive running backs out of the game. The Ravens also faced an offense similar to the 49ers when they played the Redskins a couple of months ago. The Redskins had a better running back than Frank Gore and a better quarterback than Colin Kaepernick, and that was when the Ravens were incredibly short-staffed on defense.
The 49ers have not yet faced a team with a combination of offensive firepower and defensive physicality that the Ravens currently possess. It appears as though much of the news media still bases their opinion of the Ravens on their entire body of work during the 2012 regular season. That body of work, however, is far from reflective of their current condition, and it boggles my mind that pundits continue to doubt the Ravens despite the fact that they already beat the two teams most people thought would most likely win the Super Bowl...on the road.
Complain as I may, I'm not bitter. I simply find all of the doubt surrounding the Ravens wildly amusing. It will be even funnier to hear those same doubters either come up with excuses or admit they were wrong if the Ravens defeat the 49ers. I've preached that Ravens fans should keep faith in their team all season, but now it seems just so easy to believe in them. The Ravens have already gone FAR beyond the expectations of fans and commentators, and now it's time to win one last game to put any lingering skepticism to rest. Make sure you honor the second to last Purple Friday tomorrow.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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