Members of the media and fans nationwide have spoken about Colin Kapernick and Joe Flacco when discussing the keys to the upcoming Super Bowl. Both quarterbacks have been impressive thus far in the playoffs, but there are lesser examined factors that may prove equally pivotal to the ultimate outcome of the big game. Casual football fans often base their opinion of a team on the presence of speedy, flashy, play-making skills players on a given roster, but football players, coaches, and experts know that football games are won in the trenches. A team with a superior offensive line can give a mediocre quarterback enough time to allow a relatively untalented receiver to get enough separation to make a catch against even a talented secondary. A great offensive line can open up holes so that a running back can gain yardage even if he lacks break away speed. On the other side of the ball, a dominant defensive line can collapse an opposing teams pocket, force a quarterback into making poor throws, and cover up serious deficiencies in their team's defensive secondary. Today we'll go over a pair of line personnel changes that have drastically affected the play of each Super Bowl-bound teams, and why those changes will likely play a deciding role in the upcoming game.
KEY PLAYER SPOLIGHT: JUSTIN SMITH
In week 15 of the regular season, the 49ers played the New England Patriots in Foxboro and won 42-34. It was a spectacular high scoring game, and likely gave many fans confidence in Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers as a whole. What the score doesn't tell us at first glance is what this particular game ultimately cost San Francisco in the long run. The 49ers were up 31-3 in the 3rd quarter after a blunderous first half gave Tom Brady and the Patriots a massive deficit. The second half, however, was a totally different story. The Patriots began a furious comeback that fell just short as the 49ers offense was able to score just enough to keep the Patriots down by 7 points in the end. The Patriots still manages to score 31 second half points, and 24 of those points came in the 4th quarter alone.
The question many fans should have been asking themselves at that point was how on earth the vaunted 49ers defense allowed a team to score 24 points in a single quarter. I think most fans attributed such offensive success to the fact that the 49ers were playing the highest powered offense of the regular season in its home stadium. That offense, however, was without its biggest redzone threat at the time, and was not nearly as strong as the 49ers made it appear on that night.
The real key to the 49ers' defensive meltdown was an injury to their best defensive lineman. Justin Smith tore his triceps tendon during the game, and that single injury had far-reaching effects on the rest of the defense. Justin Smith is a lot like Haloti Ngata in that he often occupies the blocks of two opposing offensive linemen, and that opens things up for the 49ers pass rushers such as Aldon Smith to get to quarterbacks with less obstacles. As a result of Justin Smith's dominant and physical presence at defensive tackle, Aldon Smith logged 19.5 sacks in just the first 13 games of the season!
As soon as Justin Smith became injured in the Patriots game, however, Aldon Smith's ability to hit quarterbacks dropped substantially. He has, in fact, not recorded a sack in a single game since week 14. The effects of Justin Smith go beyond Aldon Smith's sack total. The 49ers have not been able to put nearly as much pressure on quarterbacks, and that has exposed a the 49ers secondary as much weaker than their 4th place regular season passing yardage allowed average would suggest.
Many fans and analysts are aware of the fact that the 49ers defense has allowed a far greater amount of passing yards in recent weeks. The fact that the 49ers are favored by many of these same people would suggest that they attribute those passing defensive numbers to the high powered passing offenses that the 49ers have faced. A fact that may have been lost on these same people is that Justin Smith's injury also allows opposing teams to run the ball far more easily against the 49ers. Only one week after Justin Smith tore his triceps tendon, the 49ers faced their rivals the Seattle Seahawks. The 49ers beat the Seahawks in a defensive showdown 13-6 earlier in the regular season, but this game was far different. The 49ers defense couldn't stop the Seahawks' rushing attack, and San Francisco found itself down 24-6 at halftime. Since the 49ers couldn't stop the Seahawks from running the ball, Colin Kaepernick and the offense had far less opportunities to score, and what little opportunities that DID have were shut down by a fresh, superior Seahawks defense.
The defensive deficiencies of the 49ers defense have been at least somewhat covered up by the fact that the 49ers won both of their playoff games thus far, and any offensive flaws have been covered up by the fact that the 49ers played two teams with absolutely horrendous defenses during that time. On Sunday, however, the 49ers will be facing a well-rested team with a defense that has played better than any defense this post season and an offense that already absolutely shredded one of the top 3 defenses in the league this season. The 49ers picked the wrong time to have issues with their defensive line because the reason for the Ravens' recent offensive dominance has to do in large part with the fantastic play of the Ravens offensive line-- and that brings us to our second key lineman analysis.
KEY PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: BRYANT MCKINNEY
Almost at the same time that the 49ers defensive line became noticeably weaker with Justin Smith's injury, the Ravens offensive line improved by leaps and bounds in the area of pass protection. The Ravens offensive line struggled for much of the year to protect Joe Flacco. Michael Oher played at left tackle, but he often struggled as he simply isn't built to protect the blind side despite what Hollywood may have led the general public to believe. The Ravens offense looked downright anemic in road games for most of the regular season, and many believed that their only chance at going to the Super Bowl would be a first-round bye and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.
Just as the regular season ended, however, the Ravens' young left guard, Jah Reid, went down with an injury. The Ravens had no choice but to reshuffle the offensive line to deal with the loss. Instead of bringing in another lineman at left guard, the Ravens decided to take their starting right tackle, Kelechi Osemele, and slide him to left guard. They then moved Michael Oher back to right tackle and put Bryant McKinney in at left tackle. McKinney got his feet wet in the final reguar season game at Cincinatti, and many remarked at how poorly he played. His poor play must have been the result of a season of almost never seeing the field. After shaking off the metaphorical rust in the Cincinatti game, Bryant McKinney looked absolutely dominant in the opening round of the playoffs. McKinney wasn't simply going up against any average defensive end on each snap; he was going up against one of the best pass rushers in the NFL in Dwight Freeney. Not only did Bryant not allow a single sack, he didn't allow Freeney to even TOUCH Joe Flacco for the entire game.
Some may have attributed McKinney's performance to the Ravens playing in their home stadium, but he continued to protect Flacco just as well in the following game in Denver. With McKinney on the left side, the entire Ravens offensive line gave Flacco more than enough time to complete some of the most impressive passes of his career against a defense riddled with pro-bowlers. Elvis Dumervil and Vonn Miller combined for a single sack the entire game, and that sack was the result of Flacco holding on to the ball for what appeared to be at least 6 seconds since his receivers couldnt' get separation.
If Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis couldn't beat the Ravens offensive line, and if Vonn Miller and Elvis Dumervil had just as much trouble, we can expect the 49ers' defensive line to have little success at pressuring the red hot Ravens quarterback. Joe Flacco has appeared quite noticeably more confident in the pocket with the recent performance of his offensive line, and that has led to one of the greatest post season performances by a quarterback in NFL history. Joe Flacco is currently 3rd all time on the list of most touchdowns thrown (8) in a single post season without an interception. Flacco needs only 3 more touchdowns without a pick to tie Joe Montana, and 4 more touchdowns without an interception would put him at 1st on the list.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The 49ers demonstrated numerous times since Justin Smith tore his triceps tendon just how much they struggle defensively when the dominant defensive tackle isn't healthy. Smith has valiantly played through this injury thus far in the playoffs, but he's well aware that he could tear completely through the tendon at any moment and would be totally unable to play. Justin Smith will be operating with only on functional arm in the Super Bowl this Sunday, and that simply won't be enough to warrant a Ravens double team.
The Ravens, on the other hand, will likely run the ball early against the 49ers and force the talented 49ers linebackers to stop Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce. Forcing the 49ers to stop the Ravens running game should ultimately open up the passing game and expose a comparatively weak 49ers secondary. Expect Joe Flacco to have a good amount of success off of play-action fakes, and expect a big day from Dennis Pitta and Anquan Boldin if the 49ers use double team coverage on Torrey Smith all day.
The 49ers certainly have a good offensive line and an effective running game, so I don't expect them to be shut out in this game. Their offense's dependence on running could make a second half comeback difficult against a Ravens defense that has only allowed 4 touchdowns in this entire post season thus far. I'm not ready to make a score prediction without full statistical analysis of both teams, but the rise of the Ravens offensive line and the decline of the 49ers defensive line certainly both point to a Ravens edge this Sunday. Oh, and for anyone who has said something to the effect of "how are the Ravens going to manage to stop Colin Kaepernick??", I would like to remind them that the Ravens stopped Peyton Manning in Denver and Tom Brady in Foxboro. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are so far beyond Colin Kaepernick that it's laughable that someone would imply they'd have more trouble with the young guy than the two greatest quarterbacks of the last 15 years and arguably of all time. Only one more game to go, Ravens fans!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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