There will be little time for anticipation this weekend for Ravens and Broncos fans as their playoff game of choice is the first of four divisional contests. At 4:30 EST on Saturday, the Ravens will take the field at Mile High Stadium to face a team that manhandled them in Baltimore roughly one month earlier. The Houston Texans will be facing a similar situation when they travel to Foxboro to play the Patriots on Sunday. There are, however, two major difference between the situations of each of these two teams. The first of these differences is that the Ravens had a host of key injuries during the first game they played against the Broncos this season, while the Texans were relatively healthy when they last played and lost to the Patriots. The other difference is that the Texans are playing the Patriots in Foxboro again, and the Ravens are facing the Broncos in Denver instead of Baltimore this time.
The Texas-Patriots game will, as I stated before, be played on Sunday, so we'll discuss that more in my next post, but it simply seemed interesting to me to bring up the fact that both AFC divisional round games are rematches of total beatdowns from the last month of the regular season. The second game that will be played on Saturday night is the Packers-49ers matchup in San Francisco. That game will ALSO be a rematch of a regular season game wherein the 49ers beat the Packers 30-22 in week 1. I would like to say that we should be able to gather a lot from that regular season matchup, but it happened during the first week of the replacement referees, and the 49ers have since switched quarterbacks. This will present challenges in collecting truly relevant statistics, but that'll only make this weeks predictions all the more interesting.
RAVENS AT BRONCOS
Most of us have heard that the Broncos are 9 point favorites to win this game. I certainly can't argue with the factors that led to this betting line by vegas as the points are quite convincing. The first of such factors is that the Ravens typically have a far worse record on the road than at home. Baltimore's homefield advantage is now legendary, but the Ravens have won only 4 road games per season in the last two years. The Ravens will also be traveling on a short week to play a Broncos team that is coming off of a bye week with little injuries to speak of except Willis McGahee's knee. Then there's Peyton Manning's 9 game winning streak against the Ravens dating back roughly a decade; that has to be a huge factor on the minds of Las Vegas oddsmakers. Probably the biggest factor that went into Vegas' prediction of a Broncos win is the fact that the Broncos beat the Ravens in Baltimore only a month earlier, and should logically have an easier time beating the Ravens on at home in Denver this time around. These are all quite logical points, and I agree that the Ravens certainly have a daunting task ahead of them. There are, however, far more factors and statistics to consider for this matchup, and many of them actually favor the Ravens. Let's take a look.
KEY STATISTICS
I spent days writing and re-writing this post because I could not come to a conclusion with which I could be satisfied. There are so many reasons to pick one team or the other and it's difficult to decide which of those reasons will likely prove more valid when game time rolls around. I typically spend a lot of my time crunching numbers in a calcluator to come up with my playoff predictions, but this one was so very much more complicated because factors regarding injuries and personnel making collecting statistics so incredibly difficult. Oh well, here goes nothing.
First, it's unwise to bring up Peyton Manning's playoff performance of the last decade as evidence that he may choke this weekend. Peyton Manning is no longer on the Colts, and the Broncos offer things that should make their team more suited for the playoffs. The Broncos have a far better defense in all regards than the Colts did at almost any time during the last decade. The Broncos also run the ball better than the Colts did for most of Peyton's time in Indianapolis. Yes, Peyton Manning failed to win a playoff game in 7 of his 11 trips to the playoffs, but he lacked the support that his current team grants him.
Another set of factors I decided to throw out was the Ravens performances in the first 7 weeks. The Ravens DID win 5 out of those 7 games, and they DID beat the Patriots in dramatic fashion, but differences in defensive personnel make it impossible to use that team as a statistical predictor for this weekends' matchup in Denver. The Ravens no longer start Lardardius Webb as he went down in week 6 with a torn ACL, and the Ravens no longer start Jameel McClain as an inside linebacker as his season ended with a spinal injury against the Redskins. The Ravens now have Terrell Suggs back, and his presence does make a difference despite lingering issues with his biceps and achilles tendon. The biggest factor has been the emergence of Dannell Ellerbe as a starting linebacker for the Ravens. The Ravens have not allowed a single touchdown from the redzone in games where Dannell Ellerbe has started. Ellerbe was one of many Ravens standouts that did NOT play last time the Broncos faced the Ravens one month ago.
The idea that Peyton Manning is 0-3 in the playoffs in games below 50 degrees is interesting but not a statistic upon which we should draw definite conclusions. Two of those cold playoff games were in Foxboro against Tom Brady and the Patriots, and the Patriots homefield advantage likely has far more to do with the Peyton's losses than the cold. Peyton has also been playing in Denver all season and practicing in rather cold weather recently. The Colts played in a dome and dome teams often experience trouble in harsh outdoor environments because their players have far less experience in low temperatures once the post-season rolls around. Peyton should be quite used to the cold, and thus, it shouldn't be nearly as much of a factor.
The biggest set of statistics to throw out in predicting this game is that of the Broncos-Ravens game from 4 weeks ago. I know that may seem quite silly to many of you, but it has so little to do with this weekend. The Ravens were short-staffed on both sides of the ball, they were playing their first game with an offensive coordinator that had never called plays in an NFL game before, and it took place in Baltimore--not Denver.
Now let's take a look at what I believe will prove TRULY relevant for this weekend. Defensively, I can only look to games where the Ravens have fielded a similar set of healthy personnel. Those games, however, are few and far between. It may also seem slanted that all of the games where the Ravens start nearly this same defense happened to be Ravens wins, but that's a vitally important fact and set of statistics that I'll soon address. The presence of both Dannell Ellerbe and Terrell Suggs on the field has meant the difference between the Ravens having an incredibly stout, stingy defense and the Ravens having a porous defense riddled with weaknesses. Ellerbe and Suggs both dramatically elevate the Ravens' pass rush and run-stopping ability, and Ellerbe provides a great boost to the Ravens' pass covereage as well. In games where both men started and played without major injury, the Ravens defense held opponents to an average of 13.5 games and went 6-0. This series of 6 games included 3 road games at Cleveland, San Diego, and Pittsburgh, and that demonstrates that a Ravens defense with Ellerbe and Suggs starting travels quite well and performs at an elite level in both far away and hostile environments. The Ravens defense the 6 aforementioned games provided Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense with enough opportunities to score enough points to win each time. The Ravens offense, however, has performed at a much lower level on the road this season, and that could prove a great benefit to the Broncos.
The Ravens offense has suffered injuries at times, but for the most part it has fielded a relatively consistent set of playmakers. It is for this reason that you would THINK we'd have a larger number of games from which to draw offensive statistics. Fortunately for the Ravens, Cam Cameron is no longer the offensive coordinator, and Jim Caldwell has done an impressive job at calling plays in the last couple of serious games that the Ravens have played (we won't count the Bengals game as the Ravens pulled their starters early). Both different play-calling and a newly shuffled and healthy offensive line are the major reasons why this Ravens offense can't be statistically compared to that of many of the regular season games. Bryant McKinney appears back in rare pass blocking form at left tackle and Marshal Yanda is once again healthy and provides a huge boost to the running game as well as pass protection.
Ok, enough about how the Ravens are a better team than the team that lost three straight games starting 6 weeks ago. The Broncos are not to be taken lightly, they have an incredible offense that can run and pass the ball on just about anyone. They also boast the 3rd ranked pass defense and the 3rd ranked rush defense in the NFL. They have two incredible pass rushers and a fantastic secondary with veteran leaders such as Champ Bailey. The Broncos had a playoff team last season with a horrible quarterback--they've upgraded since then. The Broncos are 5th in the NFL in passing yards per game, and average a whopping 32.5 points per game at home while only allowing 16.375 points per game in Denver. That's over a 16 point average margin of victory.
The Broncos absolutely steamrolled the final two teams they played at home, but those teams had a combined 7 wins. The Broncos are on an 11 game winning streak, but only two of those 11 teams finished the season with a winning record, and one of them was a broken, depleted Ravens team. Another vitally important point is that the Broncos had numerous games in which they only edged solid or mediocre teams in Denver. The Broncos two home games before the Browns and Chiefs games were against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and San Diego Chargers. The Broncos only beat the Chargers 30-23, and the Buccaneers 31-23. Those are, of course, solid wins, but they demonstrate that the Broncos defense does not always shut down opponents in Mile High Stadium. If the Broncos can allow the sorry Chargers and the solid but flawed Buccaneers to each score 23 points, then maybe there's hope for a Ravens team that is much better than either of those non-playoff teams.
RAVENS-BRONCOS: FINAL THOUGHTS
My prediction for this game ultimately came down to personnel matchups and an examination of how the Ravens performed when healthy this season. Few believed in the Giants going into the last post season--few except this blogger. The Giants looked up and down all last season. They were swept by the Redskins and went on a 4 game losing streak in November and early December, but they showed flashes of being able to contend with and edge teams they'd ultimately need to beat to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in February. The key for the Giants was getting healthy and hot right before the playoffs. I see a similar path for the Ravens. The Ravens were broken and depleted when they went on their own losing streak, but they clinched their division and that gave them the opportunity to rest their starters and revamp their offensive line.
On the flip side, the Broncos are well rested and dangerous, but their homefield advantage hasn't exactly been what many people may think it has been this season. In the last two games against teams with at least 7 wins, the Broncos allowed 23 points per game and only won by an average 7.5 points. At the same time, the Ravens defense has only allowed an average of 13.5 points per game when Dannell Ellerbe and Terrell Suggs start. With a healthy defense, the Ravens showed they can go across country and hold the Chargers to 13 points (the same Chargers team that scored 23.5 points per game on the Broncos this season), and showed they could go into Pittsburgh and hold the Steelers to 10 points. I expect the Broncos to score more than the Chargers or Steelers, but when the Ravens are healthy, I simply can't bring myself to bet against them. With a healthy defense, a better offensive coordinator, and far better pass protection, the Ravens will upset the Broncos en route to a rematch with the Patriots. I probably sound like a total homer, and I'm sure I am, but I actually strongly believe that the Broncos won't see this Ravens team coming. Peyton Manning has only won games in 4 of his 11 trips to the playoffs. And after all, Peyton Manning has thrown 1 touchdown and 7 interceptions in post-season games below 40 degrees at kickoff, and this one just may be the coldest.
MY PREDICTION: RAVENS 27-24.
PACKERS AT 49ERS
Like the Ravens-Broncos game, the Packers-49ers game will be a rematch of two teams that faced each other during the regular season. Also like the Ravens-Broncos game, this Packers-49ers game can't be easily predicted using the regular season matchup as evidence. This seasons' first meeting of these teams was played in a different location as Saturday night's game, and it featured a questionable replacement officiating crew and a different quarterback for the 49ers. The first matchup between these two teams was also in September, so we'll have to look how each team has changed since then in order to get an accurate prediction for Saturday night.
KEY STATISTICS
This Packers team is not nearly as dominant as the Packers team that won 15 regular season games last regular season. By anyone's account, the Packers should've been 12-4 during the regular season if one were to reverse one of the worst calls in NFL history against the Seahawks. The outcome of the Seahawks game took away homefield advantage for the Packers and allowed the Seahawks to make it to the playoffs, but that's not something anyone can change after the fact. The fact is that the way the Packers ended their season simply wasn't good enough to deserve a first round bye, and the way the Seahawks have played in the last 6 weeks demonstrates that they absolutely belong in the post-season.
The Packers beat a Vikings team without its starting quarterback last weekend in one of the lamest excuses for a playoff game I've ever had the misfortune of watching. That game doesn't provide the Packers with much momentum as it was a home game and this weeks matchup is on the road in a harsh playoff environment against one of the league's most dominant defenses. The Packers' regular season home games, however, don't provide relevant statistics for this upcoming game expect to illustrate the difference between how Aaron Rodgers and company play on the road as opposed to in Green Bay.
The Packers allowed their opponents to score an average of 24.5 points in road games this season. By contrast, the Packers only allowed opponents to score 17.5 points per game at Lambeau Field. Four of the five Packers losses happened on the road this season, and the only loss at home was against the team that they're about to face this weekend. The Packers offense is also more productive at home with 29.125 points per game than it is on the road with an average of 25. This means that the Packers only score an average of 0.5 points more than they allow on the road. This is not a recipe for a road playoff win.
The 49ers, like the Packers and almost all other teams, are better at home than on the road. Unlike the Packers, the 49ers will be playing at home this weekend. Three of the 49ers' four losses came on the road this season, and their only home loss came against a Giants team that has perplexingly had a recipe to beat both the Packers and 49ers on their respective home fields for the past two seasons. The 49ers haven't been better from an offensive standpoint at home as compared to on the road. The 49ers have, in fact, scored 24.875 points per game on the road and only 24.75 points per game at home. The 49ers big advantage going into Saturday night's game is their home defense. The 49ers allowed an average of only 13.875 points per game at home this season, but an average of 20.25 points on the road. This will undoubtedly work in the 49ers' favor.
There are, of course, other factors beyond homefield advantage that will come into play this weekend. The 49ers defense has been particularly strong against all of the teams they've played with pass-heavy offenses. The 49ers beat the Saints, Patriots, and Packers this season, but occasionally struggled against teams with strong running games and stout defenses such as the Seahawks and Vikings. The Packers don't run the ball well, and while their overall defensive numbers ended up being solid this season, their road defense remained fairly ineffective against competative opponents such as the Colts, Giants, and Vikings.
The final set of factors to consider is the healthy of both teams. The Packers did have long stretches without Clay Matthews this season, and that hurt their defensive ability, but they're quite healthy going into Saturday night's game. The 49ers, on the other hand, have lost Mario Manningham and Justin Smith is dealing with a partial triceps tear that will undoubtedly limit his effectiveness as a defensive tackle. The 49ers no longer start Alex Smith, but Colin Kaepernick has proven he can play well enough to beat some strong teams such as the Patriots and Bears.
PACKERS-49ERS: FINAL THOUGHTS
The 49ers defense is simply too strong at home and the Packers defense is too weak on the road for me to predict anything other than a 49ers win here. This could and likely will be a fairly close game, but there's also a chance the 49ers win by more than a touchdown. The Packers are too one-dimensional on offense which makes them an easy team to defend against for a team with a such a dominant defense as the 49ers. This will be the second year in a row that the Packers get bounced out of the divisional round of the playoffs. There's really nothing else to it.
MY PREDICTION: 49ERS 33-23.
I know many of you reading this might think less of me for giving the Ravens such a good shot at beating the Broncos this weekend. I don't care. The Broncos haven't shown me enough against quality opponents this season and have won too many close games at home over losing teams for me to think of them as truly dominant. As for the Green Bay Packers, they're simply not balanced enough on offense or strong enough on defense in road games for me to take them seriously as a strong playoff team. Aaron Rodgers had a good season, but it's a sad thing when a playoff team's leading rusher only has 464 yards on 135 carries. The Broncos are thought of to be one of the most complete teams in the league, and it's hard to argue against that, but so much of their stats stems from 3 months of extremely weak opponents. I'll probably look downright stupid if the Broncos once again blow out the Ravens, but that's football and sports in general. You can come up with a dozen reasons in your mind as to why your team will win a game and another team will lose, but you can never truly predict mistakes and unlikely spectacular plays that so often find their way into the playoffs. Keep the faith, Baltimore.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!!
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