I still haven't fully wrapped my mind around the idea that the Ravens will be going to the Super Bowl. I predicted they would, but each season in the Harbaugh-Flacco era has, thus far, ended in heartbreak from me, and it's almost as though some part of my mind simply expected my favorite team to be once again screwed by the referees or a blunderous missed field goal. This Ravens team, however, is different than those of previous years, and there's a big reason why: the 2012-2013 Ravens actually got better in the playoffs than they were during the regular season. The Ravens made a late coaching change and reshuffled their offensive line. At around the same time, just about all of the major defensive stars became healthy enough to play...and man, are they playing!
The 49ers haven't had to deal with the same number of injuries to their defensive starters as the Ravens, but their coaching staff did make a major decision that had an impact on the season. The 49er's quarterback, Alex Smith, became injured roughly half way through the season, and Colin Kaepernick became his replacement. Kaepernick impressed his teammates and coaching staff to such a degree that he became the permanent starter even after Smith once again became healthy enough to play. This was a risky decision as it could have cost the coaching staff the respect of the players for demoting a starter just because of in injury. The players, however, rallied behind the young quarterback and gave him their full support.
Fearless personnel and staffing decisions may just be what makes the Harbaugh brothers great coaches. Fans and even some players may not always agree with their decisions at first, but it's clear that both men have inherited a resolve to do what is right for their team regardless of any risk that they'll upset or annoy others. I'll be happy to see the Ravens defeat the 49ers, but I'm glad they'll be facing a tough, gritty team one more time before purple confetti falls.
RAVENS AT PATRIOTS
What a game this turned out to be. I had the Ravens winning by a touchdown, but I verbally told co-workers and friends all week that I expected the Ravens to thump a Gronkless Patriots team by 10 or more points. I saw that the Patriots struggled in the redzone against some bad teams with Gronk out in the regular season, and that ended up making the difference in a game where the Patriots had a handful of unsuccessful trips beyond the Ravens 20 yard line. Would this game have been different if Gronkowski had been in? Of course, but injuries are a part of football, and if the Ravens hadn't experienced a mountain of injuries during the regular season, it's likely they would have gone 13-3 or 14-2 and this game would have been played in Baltimore.
This was a game where I finally gained a huge amount of confidence in defensive coordinator Dean Pees. Pees made adjustments in the second half that led to a 3rd and 4th quarter shutout of a Patriots offense that scored 557 regular season points. Pees did what the Steelers did in their regular season win over the Patriots during the 2011 regular season; he kept the Ravens in mostly nickel packages and even dropped back players such as Paul Kruger into coverage. The Ravens defensive linemen were able to pressure and hit Brady at times even though they never truly sacked him. Pees' strategy was intelligent because the Patriots tend to get the ball into the hands of their receivers early near the line of scrimmage with many screen passes and short routes to keep the chains moving. This takes away the time and opportunity that opposing teams require to sack Brady. In light of the fact that most of the Patriots' passes were short, the Ravens' defensive line did a fantastic job of getting hands up to bat down and tip Brady's passes.
I must admit that I was a bit puzzled by Jim Caldwell's play calling early in the game, but it became abundantly clear soon thereafter that Caldwell had a method to what at first appeared to be madness. Caldwell at first appeared to be trying to force the issue as he ran the ball on first and second down repeatedly in the first quarter. The Patriots, after all, had a strong run defense this season. Pounding the ball up the middle early, however, opened things up for the Ravens later in the game once the ball was placed squarely in the control of Joe Flacco. In the second half of the game, Caldwell called plays that allowed Flacco to go over the middle to Torrey Smith and Dennis Pitta while finding Boldin for two spectacular touchdowns. We seldom saw those kinds of plays with Cam Cameron at the helm. As the Ravens found success in the passing game, Caldwell began to mix in running plays once more, but this time he intelligently ran numerous draw plays to take advantage of the fact that the Patriot's linebackers were often dropped back into coverage.
The most important thing I realized after the game was that the Ravens didn't NEED to worry about missing a game-winning field goal because they Ravens scored touchdowns on all 4 of their trips to the redzone. An improved offensive line has meant an incredibly precise, confident Joe Flacco who has thrown 8 touchdowns and no interceptions in the post-season. The 49ers should be worried about their upcoming matchup.
49ERS AT FALCONS
This was the first game I incorrectly predicted in the entire post season as my playoff record for 2013 is now 9-1. I reasoned that the Falcons were good enough to lead a quick game-winning drive against a team almost identical to the 49ers only a week earlier, and it appeared as though they might even do that in the last 2 minutes of the NFC Championship. A major missed pass interference call on Navarro Bowman meant the Falcons couldn't convert on 4th down and the game ended in a 49ers win.
The Falcons certainly looked dominant in the first half of the game, but their defense simply appeared poorly conditioned and equipped to handle another entire game of a mobile quarterback and strong running game. The Falcons offense, however, was mostly to blame as it failed to score in the entire second half and couldn't stay on the field long enough to give the defense time to catch its breath. Matt Ryan threw a costly interception and had an embarrassing fumble that wasn't forced by a 49ers player or even the result of a bad snap.
As for the 49ers, they stuck to exactly what they've done well for the last couple of seasons. The 49ers took advatnage of a poor Falcons run defense and unleashed Frank Gore. At times it appeared as though the Falcons defenders were standing still as Gore slipped right by them on his way into the endzone. Colin Kaepernick made some great throws after being forced out of the pocket to Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree. I was not, however, incredibly impressed with Kaepernick the way the rest of the world appeared to be. He's great for a young quarterback, but at this stage of the playoffs, I'm judging players on how they play, not how they play given the time they've been in the league. Kaepernick has only faced mediocre and poor defenses thus far in the playoffs, and his success in this game depended largely on the typically blunderous playoff performance of Matt Ryan.
With that said, Kaepernick has the arm strength and athleticism to evade pressure and make great throws to some big targets downfield. The Ravens got a taste of that kind of quarterback earlier this season with Robert Griffin III. Somehow the Falcons repeatedly allowed Vernon Davis to get wide open downfield, and that helped the 49ers go one step further than the Seahawks did a week earlier.
SUPER BOWL PREVIEW
We have the better part of two weeks until the Super Bowl, so I will have plenty more previews, analyses, and predictions in store for my readers. I simply figured it would be a good idea to get my own thought process going regarding positional matchups and each team's tendencies. This game, after all, features two teams with a lot of similarities, and it will likely require a great amount of analysis over the next couple of weeks to form a reasonable prediction of the outcome of Super Bowl 47.
As I stated earlier, the Ravens got a preview of a 49ers-style offense when they faced a Colin Kaepernick-like player in RG3. RG3 is even faster than Kaepernick with just as strong an arm. The Redskins also featured a fantastic running back who was much better than Frank Gore this season. The Ravens didn't win that game, but that had more to do with offensive mistakes and defensive injuries. If Joe Flacco had the protection of his current line and the Ravens had their current starting defense, the Ravens-Redskins game could have turned out much differently. With that said, the Ravens were able to halt the Redskins' offense in the second half, but the Ravens' offense couldn't capitalize off of their defensive success.
From a schematic standpoint, the Ravens were able to contain RG3 in the way that they'll need to contain Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick isn't great from the pocket, and the 49ers' offensive system isn't designed to get the ball into the hands of receivers quickly like that of the Patriots or Broncos. The Ravens will, therefore, have to set the edge with Kaepernick and prepare for a lot of up-the-middle running from Frank Gore.
The next two weeks will be huge for Haloti Ngata as the extended time to rest and prep for the next game will likely lead to increased performance from the giant Polynesian. Ngata has dealt with a nagging sprained knee all season and he's performed far better after periods of extended rest. The Ravens will need their defensive line to hold up against a strong 49ers offensive line if they hope to minimize Frank Gore's success.
The 49ers, on the other hand, will have to try to refrain from running Colin Kaepernick too much unless he has clear opportunities to get a first down and out of bounds safely. The Ravens have the explosive hitting power in enough of their athletes to leave a mobile quarterback battered, bruised, and limping. Fortunately for the 49ers, their backup used to be their starter, and he's more than capable of playing well enough to win games.
The 49ers know full well that they are not going up against a defense that gets exahusted and plays poorly in the second half of games. This Ravens defense has only allowed 4 offensive touchdowns in 3 playoff games against top offenses with tons of weapons. The Ravens defense has enough experience and leadership to slow down the best offenses in the league, and the Ravens offense has already gone against one of the top defenses in the league on the road in the divisional round. I realize that a lot of people are high on the 49ers because they get excited by mobile quarterbacks, but Colin Kaepernick hasn't faced a team as explosive, complete, and well coached as the Ravens yet in the playoffs. The '9ers are in for a rude awakening.
I've been telling Ravens fans to keep the faith all season, and it has paid off big time. The Ravens have no major injuries listed, and they're going to have extra time to rest and get prepared for the most important game in team history. This game isn't just about winning the big game, and it isn't just about getting Ray Lewis on final ring. It's about validation of the last dozen years of building and perfecting this team to get back to Super Bowl form. It's about once again being an underdog team with a wildly loyal fanbase that can be heard loudly even in harsh road venues (loved hearing "O!!" in during the national anthem in Foxboro). Most of all, it's about showing the world why we Ravens fans are nuts about our team year in and year out. We love big hits, interceptions, and a hard-nosed running game, but now we have a great quarterback and fantastic receiving corps to boot. I'm calling on Ravens fans everywhere to wear purple as often as possible until the Super Bowl. It's time to show our purple pride!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!!
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