The divisional round of the NFL playoffs, unlike the wildcard round, features exciting games on BOTH days of the weekend. Last weekend, the Vikings-Packers game barely qualified as a playoff game, and the Bengals looked too offensively inept to warrant even being a wildcard team. As lesser teams are eliminated, however, the games become far more interesting. The Seahawks have looked nearly unstoppable recently, while the Falcons get little credit for being tied for the NFL's best record. The likely outcome of the Texans-Patriots game certainly appears far less uncertain, but the Texans still have the potential to get hot and make this a more interesting game if they can avoid mistakes they made in their last trip to Foxboro.
SEAHAWKS AT FALCONS
This is one of the most interesting matchups of the entire 2012-2013 season and certainly one of the most interesting matchups of the 2013 post-season. The Falcons have been a mystery all season as they won 13 regular season games, but often played impossibly close games against losing teams. Few fans, commentators, and analysts seemed to take the Falcons seriously as a truly dominant team because of the way they won games rather than the number of games they won. The Seahawks are one of the hottest teams in football at the moment, and they've shown that they can go on the road and beat another hot team in the Washinton Redskins. The Seahawks, however, lost their top pass rusher last weekend to a torn ACL, and their leading rusher, Marshawn Lynch, was listed on the injury report this week with a foot injury even though he is expected to play. The Atlanta Falcons, on the other hand, have not won a playoff game since January 15, 2005, and they have only one current player, center Todd McClure, who has ever won a playoff game in a Falcons uniform. Could this be the season that Matt Ryan finally wins a game in the post-season? Let's take a look at some of the numbers to get a better idea.
KEY STATISTICS
Matt Ryan has had the best statistical year of his career with 4719 yards and 32 passing touchdowns. More importantly, the Falcons are 7-1 in Atlanta with their only home loss coming in a game that meant nothing as the Falcons had already clinched the 1st seed in the playoffs. The last meaningful home game the Falcons played was a 34-0 drubbing of the Giants. There's an argument to be made that the Falcons are actually hitting their stride heading into the post-season.
The Falcons don't have a great defense from a standpoint of yardage allowed. They possess the 23rd ranked pass defense and the 21st ranked run defense. The Falcons, however, had the 5th best scoring defense in the league with only 299 points allowed in the entire regular season. Only the Seahawks, 49ers, Bears, and Broncos allowed fewer points. The Falcons, in that way, are a lot like the Ravens in that they may allow teams to move between the 20 yard lines, but buckle down as opposing teams approach the endzone. The Falcons have allowed exactly 17 points per game at home as opposed to 20.375 on the road. The Falcons defense, thus, gains an advantage from its own home crowd.
The Falcons scoring offense is ranked 7th with a total of 419 points in the regular season, which averages out to 26.1875 points per game. Most of the Falcons yardage stems from their 6th ranked passing offense that averaged 281.8 yards per game through the air. The Falcons were far less impressive running the football as they ranked 29th in the NFL with only 87.3 rushing yards per games. The Falcons, however, do possess the ability to use their leading rusher, Michael Turner, quite well in the redzone as he has 10 rushing touchdowns on the season (1 more than Ray Rice). The Falcons possess some impressive receivers with Julio Jones and Roddy White. These two receivers have a combined 2549 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns this season, and are a matchup nightmare for any pair of cornerbacks. Tony Gonzalez is still playing at a high level towards what we have to assume is the tail end of his career as a tight end. Gonzalez had 930 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns this season, and I'd like to say his experience will be a big bonus to this Falcons receiving corps, but Gonzalez has zero experience winning a playoff game.
The Seahawks defense has been arguably the best defense in the league, and it certainly looked dominant against a high powered Redskins offense last weekend. The Seahawks, as I mentioned earlier, lost their best pass rusher, and that could hurt them against a pass-heavy team with a handful of top notch receivers such as the Falcons. The Seahawks certainly disproved doubters that insisted Seattle is a team that only truly excels at home. The Seahawks appeared to disprove that by holding the Redskins scoreless after the first quarter of the wildcard round game. The Redskins, however, have a rather one dimensional offense that relies so heavily on the run and was hurt by the poor throwing ability and accuracy of an injured, hobbled RG3. The Falcons may seem equally one dimensional at times, but the one dimension they possess will likely prove more successful against a Seattle team without Chris Clemons. Clemons had 11.5 sacks this season, and taking away a team's leading pass rusher can totally change the dynamic of the defensive line.
The Seahawks' defense allowed 18.75 points per game on the road this season (18.22 if you count last week's road playoff game). The Seahawks only scored an average 21.125 points per game on the road, however, and that may not be quite enough to win in the Georgia Dome. The Falcons, however, aren't a terrifying home team from an offensive production standpoint. On the contrary, they averaged less points per game at home (24.75) than on the road (27.625). This discrepancy doesn't have to do with the strength of their home schedule as opposed to their road schedule as both were around the same in difficulty. Instead, the Falcons are a team that scores by necessity rather than scoring just to score. It would appear that the Falcons try not to be overly aggressive when it's not necessary to avoid mistakes and turnovers.
SEAHAWKS AT FALCONS: FINAL THOUGHTS
I believed in the Seahawks last week because I understood that their ability to stop the run would travel well. I knew that RG3 was slowed by a knee injury, and that the Redskins wouldn't be a huge threat in the passing game. Before RG3 took some shots, however, the Redskins quickly drove down the field and scored two touchdowns on the Seahawks defense. It took re-aggrivation of RG3's knee injury to really blow the game wide open for the Seahawks. The Falcons, on the other hand, will be quite well rested and ready for this Sunday. Their quarterback is simply better than RG3 even when RG3 is healthy. That's not a jab at the Skins or their fans, but Matt Ryan is simply a great quarterback. Now it's Ryan's chance to prove that his talent and skills can carry over into the post-season. The loss of Chris Clemons will badly hurt Seattle's ability to pressure a quarterback with impressive pocket awareness and footwork. Matt Ryan will likely connect with Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez before pressure gets to him, and that will open things up for Michael Turner on occassion. The Falcons play excellent defense at home. They will focus on keeping Marshawn Lynch off of the field and out of the endzone. Russell Wilson will make plays and prove that he's just about the best rookie quarterback in the league right now, but he won't have enough opportunities to drive downfield as the Seahawks defense will struggle to stop the Falcons at too many points. I'll be rooting for the Hawks, but it looks like a different bird is going to move on to the next round.
MY PREDICTION: FALCONS 27-21.
TEXANS AT PATRIOTS
I don't want to disrespect my friends who are Texans fans. I know the Texans won last week over a team with an great defense, but it would be just downright silly to think that a narrow home win over an offensively anemic Bengals team would mean much heading into a road rematch with a Patriots team that beat the Texans down only a little over a month ago. The Patriots drove effortlessly on the Texans over and over and over...and over. The score ended up being 42-14 with half of Texas' points coming in garbage time. The Texans lost a lot when they lost Brian Cushing early in the season. They lost a defensive playmaker who added leadership, intensity, run-stuffing, and pass-rushing dimensions to this Texans team. After Cushing's injury, many teams discovered a winning formula for stopping the Texans: double team J.J. Watt, and everytime he throws his arms up in the air, deliver a blocking blow right to his stomach to make him pay. Watt still had plenty off success this season, but he became one of the few players in the Texans front 7 to demonstrate the ability to make big plays.
The Texans have not lost or gained any major personnel since their last matchup with the Patriots, so this game will be far easier to predict from a statistical standpoint. The Patriots, on the other hand, have only become healthier and stronger with the return of Rob Gronkowski. Rather than worrying about the entire regular season let's briefly look at the Texans' performance last week and then take a more in-depth look back to the last time the Texans and Patriots played one another to get an idea of what is about to happen on Sunday.
KEY STATISTICS
Last week the Texans beat the Bengals 19-13 in what can only be described as a defensive struggle. Not a defensive showdown or war, but a struggle. I say a struggle because it had more to do with each team's total ineptitude when it came to getting into the endzone on offense. The Bengals' only touchdown came off of an embarrassing Matt Schaub pick 6, and the the Texans only touchdown came on the ground from Arian Foster who had himself quite a good day. The Matt Schaub drove his team into the redzone on a few occassions but the Texans had to settle for 4 field goals.
The Texans' offensive struggles in the redzone were equally apparent but far more costly against the Patriots in week 14. The Texans had the same number of offensive drives as the Patriots (13), only one less yard per play, and 5 less total plays than Tom Brady and company. Houston's ability to get into the redzone, however, was atrocious to say the least. The Texans would look impressive at times and put together a drive, but almost all of their drives stalled long before they got within the redzone or even field goal range.
Matt Schaub and the Texans offense got credit for putting up big points against a handful of teams earlier this season. Schaub himself, however, has not had many particularly impressive games from a standpoint of passing yards. Schaub had one standout performance with over 500 passing yards against the worst team in the league an overtime barn-burner. Other than that embarrassingly close matchup, Schaub has only had one game all season with 300+ passing yards. It could be that Andre Johnson is slowing down, or it could be that Schaub himself has simply made too many mistakes along the way, but he has certainly not looked like the pro bowler that he once was years ago.
Tom Brady, on the other hand, has been exactly what we expect him to be year in and year out. Brady passed for 4,827 yards, 34 touchdowns, and only 8 interceptions this season. If Peyton Manning hadn't led his team to the best record in the AFC coming off of a nagging neck injury, Brady would likely be the #1 quarterback candidate for league MVP. Brady's ability to spread the ball around his receiving corps and read defenses makes him dangerous in any game. Brady's lightning quick release and sure-handed targets allow him to complete a high number of passes without being pressured much.
Most importantly, Tom Brady and the Patriots did not seem the least bit frightened by J.J. Watt. The Patriots have the ability to run the ball well, and that helped to keep the Texans from bringing heavy blitzes to pressure Brady into making poor throws. Bill Belichick obviously did his homework before facing the Texans last time, because he seemed to have totally figured out each and every one of the weaknesses in a Texans defense that looked brutal and terrifying only a month earlier.
TEXANS-PATRIOTS: FINAL THOUGHTS
I won't waste too much more time with statistical analysis. A rested Patriots team with their biggest, most dangerous receiver back and healthy will be far too much for the Texans to handle. The Texans offense, try as they may, won't be efficient enough at scoring in Foxboro to keep up with the high-powered Patriots. I hope the Texans make this a more interesting game than I expect it to be.
MY PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 38-23
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