For the vast majority of fans and viewers in the Maryland area Sunday, not Saturday, will be the big day to watch NFL playoff football. The Ravens play the Colts in Baltimore at 1:00 and the Redskins play the Seattle Seahawks at 4:30 in D.C. (Landover, MD). The Megalopolis that is the Baltimore/DC area is going to be absolutely overflowing with football pride and excitement as two local teams fight to move one step closer to the Superbowl. The excitement of watching ones team in the playoffs is nothing new to Redskins fans; it is, in fact, a very old feeling for them. It's been far too long since fans in the D.C. area felt this pumped about their team this late in the season. With the rise of Robert Griffin III, however, I have a sneaking suspicion that this season will be the first of many for a Redskins team on the up and up at the top of a division whose other teams are practically falling apart.
The feeling of seeing ones team in the playoffs is nothing new for Ravens fans. The Ravens are the only team in the league to have earned 5 straight playoff berths in the last 5 years. For the Ravens, the post-season doesn't feel like recently uncharted territory, but rather, the playoffs are urgent unfinished business. Ray Lewis just informed his teammates that this is his last playoff run, and it is at least partially for that reason that the Ravens players and coaches know that they must not hold anything back or give any less than their best this month if they're to give Ray Lewis one more shot at Superbowl glory.
Both the Redskins and Ravens have interesting matchups this weekend as the Redskins face a team that is extremely similar to their own, and the Ravens face the organization that left the city of Baltimore in the middle of the night in 1984. The Colts also have former Ravens defensive coordinator, Chuck Pagano, as their current head coach, and a number of former Ravens on their roster. The Ravens also recently made the former Colts head coach, Jim Caldwell, into their offensive coordinator. In effect, the Ravens gave away a coordinator to become head coach and the Colts gave away a head coach to become a coordinator. As for the Skins, they face a team with an incredible defense, a great running game, and a talented, mobile rookie quarterback. Both the Colts and Seahawks have poor road records, however, and that could mean good news for football fans in Baltimore and D.C.
COLTS AT RAVENS
All week I've heard on the radio and read online that the Colts will be a popular pick to upset the Ravens as they're a team that will enter this weekend having won 5 of their last 6 games. The Ravens, these same analysts and commentators contend, have lost 4 of their last 5 games and come "limping" into the playoffs. While those statistics about each teams recent records are concerned are true, the conclusion that the Colts could be likely to pull an upset in Baltimore as a result of those statistics is a hasty one that fails to take a deeper look at the currect state of each team. Could the Colts do so? Possibly, but we won't really know that until we look beyond who has won more games in the last month and a half.
First, the Ravens HAVE lost 4 of their last 5 games, but the last game they played meant nothing and did not feature most of the Ravens starters for most of the game. The Ravens-Bengals game in Cincinatti was as inconsequential as a pre-season game. The Ravens 3 prior losses were certainly demoralizing to the Ravens fanbase and organization. Those losses, however, were largely the result of a rash of injuries to key players. Upon the return of those players, the Ravens soundly thumped the Superbowl Champion Giants into the turf of M&T Bank Stadium to establish confidence and momentum going into the post season and clinch the division for a second year in a row.
The Colts, on the other hand, have put on quite a show under the leadership of Andrew Luck. The rookie phenom has a knack for squeaking out spectacular late wins against opponents. Luck has helped to demonstrate that Reggie Wayne is still one of the best receivers in the NFL and has helped to highlight the speed and skill of T.Y. Hilton as a deep threat. The Colts even have a better record than the Ravens at 11-5, though the Ravens may have won their final game if they had been motivated to play their starters. Regardless, the Colts have come back from a 2-14 season last year to an 11-5 season this year with a 6 seed in the playoffs. The question still remains as to whether or not the Colts can or will beat the Ravens in Baltimore this Sunday.
KEY STATISTICS
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: the key to consistent accurate predictions is ignoring irrelevant statistics. In this case, the Colts recent record is quite misleading as it tells us little about how the Colts play on the road against playoff-caliber teams.
The Colts have only played two road games against current playoff teams this entire season. The rest of their road games have been played against teams with losing records with the exception of a loss to the Bears who ended up going 10-6 and just missing a playoff berth. The last two road games against playoff teams have resulted in blowout losses for the Colts. The Patriots embarrassed the Colts in Foxboro 59-24, and the Texans took down the Colts 29-17 in Houston. At home, the Colts can beat just about any time as was shown in their 30-27 win over the Packers at Indianapolis in week 5 and their 28-16 win over the Texans in Indy only two weeks after losing to the Texans in Houston by the same margin.
To fully understand what makes the Colts such a different team at home than on the road, we must first examine their average points allowed and points scored in Indy and away. The Colts have averaged 23.125 points at home and allowed an average of 19.25 points per game at home. On the road, the Colts scored an average 21.5 points which is only about a point and a half per game less than they scored on the at home. The Colts, however, allowed an average of 29.125 points per game on the road, and that demonstrates a total inability to be defensively competitive outside of Indianapolis. The Colts have the 21st ranked pass defense and the 29th ranked rush defense.
The Ravens also are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. The Ravens, on the other hand, are not playing on the road this weekend, and they have fared quite well at home. The Ravens averaged 31.75 points at M&T Bank Stadium this season, and allowed 22.375. The Ravens only allowed 20.625 points per game on the road, but that was largely because of the caliber of opponents they faced on the road as opposed to at home. The Ravens also only scored 18.75 points per game on the road, and that is a matter that will have to be brought up next week if they are able to beat the Colts this weekend.
How many points the Ravens averaged on the road is as insignificant in this weekend's game as how many the Colts averaged at home because the game is being played in Baltimore. Something that IS quite relevant, however, is how injuries have affected the Ravens this season. The Ravens were without their best defensive player for the first six games of the season, and that meant Baltimore had trouble stopping the run and rushing the passer. The Ravens were forced to rely on their offense to put up enough points to win games, and fortunately the offense was up to the task and went 5-1 through the first 6 games. At the end of the 6th game, though, Lardarius Webb and Ray Lewis came out with serious injuries that would sideline Webb for the rest of the season and keep Lewis out until the playoffs. The Ravens then proceeded to go into Houston without their star middle linebacker and shutdown corner and get blown out 43-13.
Ray Lewis' absence, however, gave rise to the emergence of Dannell Ellerbe as the best linebacker on the Ravens this season. Terrell Suggs came back and became and helped to stabalize the run defense and open up things for the pass rush. The Ravens were the best defensive team in the league for 4 straight games when Suggs and Ellerbe led the Ravens to four straight wins with impressive defensive performances against the Steelers in Pittsburgh and the Chargers in San Diego. When both Ellerbe and Suggs played at the same time this season, the Ravens have allowed only 14 points. This is the most important defensive statistic that I can stress. Suggs will be coming off of an extra week of rest, and Ellerbe is now three weeks removed from the last time he missed a game due to his ankle injury.
One of the best things about Ellerbe is that he's extremely fast. Ellerbe can cover sideline to sideline which helps solidify the run defense, and he can drop back into coverage or can get after a quarterback as well or better than just about any other middle linebacker in the NFL right now. Having a healthy Dannell Ellerbe is, more than anything, the key to the Ravens making a great post-season run.
COLTS-RAVENS: FINAL THOUGHTS
Teams that have given the Ravens the most trouble this season are those that bring a healthy mix of running and passing with at least solid defense. The Colts are 7th in the league in passing yardage, but don't run the ball well and certainly can't play defense well on the road. If all your team can do is pass the ball, then they probably won't even have a tremendous amount of success doing that in Baltimore in January. The Ravens are rested with key starters such as Bernard Pollard, Terrell Suggs, and Haloti Ngata coming back after taking time off last week to get healthy. Ray Lewis will also return to the field, and despite his injury, Ray may actually provide some much needed depth alongside Dannell Ellerbe now that Jameel McClain is out for the year with a spinal injury. If your team can't stop the run, then expect Ray Rice to have a big day, and if your team spends all of its energy trying to stop Ray Rice, then expect Flacco to spread the ball out to a receiving corps filled with young, speedy weapons. I am obviously a huge Ravens fan, but I simply can't see the Colts making this a competitive game. MY PREDICTION: RAVENS 38-20.
SEAHAWKS AT REDSKINS
I obviously won't be as enthusiastic for this game as I will be for the Ravens-Colts game. With that said, this could actually prove to be a far more thrilling game to watch from an objective standpoint. This game features two quite similar teams, and it will be billed as a showdown between two standout rookie NFC quarterbacks. Russel Willson has had a great rookie season thus far, and Robert Griffin III--well let's just say that RG3 totally justified the move to spend so much just to trade up to draft him. Without further ado, let's get right down to the stats and facts that make this game so incredibly difficult to predict.
KEY STATISTICS
It's difficult to say which team should be described as the hotter team going into this matchup. On the one hand, the Redskins have won 7 straight games, and on the other hand the Seahawks have won 7 of their last 8 and blown out some pretty impressive teams such as the 49ers. The Seahawks have also scored an average 38.6 points per game and only allowed an average of 12 points per game in their last 5 straight wins. That means they've won by an average margin of victory of 26.6 points!
A big caveat to those statistics, however, is the fact that the Seahawks have only had one big blowout win on the road this season and that was against the Buffalo Bills 50-17. All five of the Seahawks' losses have been on the road and they only managed to beat teams 3 non-playoff teams away from Seattle. Only one of the Seahawks' road wins was against a quality opponent, and that was their 23-17 overtime win in Chicago.
The Seahawks averaged 21.125 points on the road this season while allowing 18.75. At home, the Seahawks averaged 30.375, and allowed only a flat 14 points per game. That's all well and good, but the Seahawks aren't playing at home this weekend, and won't likely play a home game at all going into the playoffs as the 5th seed.
Despite their poor road record, the Seahawks still have a chance to win and win big this weekend against the Redskins. The Redskins have the 5th ranked run defense in the NFL, but the 30th ranked pass defense. The Redskins had been able to dial up a good pass rush with a lot of blitzing lately, but the blitzing frequently could be costly against a Seahawks team that boasts possibly the best offensive line in the NFL with the 3rd ranked rush offense.
Not to take away from the obviously impressive accomplishments of the redskins in their winning streak, but barely beating a broken eagles team, beating a broken Cowboys team, edging a slumping Giants team, and beating a Ravens team without any of its starting linebackers in the game are all not individually incredible feats. Yes, the Redskins trounced the Browns, and yes Alfred Morris looks like just about the toughest running back in the league besides Adrian Peterson, and yes 7 straight wins in the NFL is still 7 straight wins. The Redskins will simply be facing what could prove a much tougher opponent this weekend because they do one thing that the Giants, Eagles, Cowboys, and Ravens all did poorly: play defense.
The Redskins averaged 25.75 points per game at home this season and allowed an average of 22.125. The Redskins average margin of victory at home is only slightly higher than the Seahawks average margin of victory on the road, and that doesn't indicate a strong homefield advantage this season.
In order to beat the Seahawks, the Redskins are going to have to stick to what they do best in running the football and stopping the run. The blitzing Russell Wilson may prove quite dangerous as it could open things up for Marshawn Lynch on the ground. Blitzing too often could also prove in vain as Russell Wilson is quite mobile and can make plays with his legs much like RG3. The Redskins will have to depend on their recently improved secondary to stop Sidney Rice and and Golden Tate.
On the flip side, the Seahawks will have to stop Alfred Morris in order to stop the Redskins. RG3's knee injury should be at least somewhat improved, but he still lacked his usual explosion in last week's game against the Cowboys. The Seahawks have arguably the best secondary in the NFL, so don't expect matchup issues with the Redskins receivers. The Seahawks also have the 10th ranked run defense in the league, so it's possible that they're able to slow Aflred Morris down, but the Seahawks also have had trouble stopping the run on the road at times.
One of the best examples of the Seahawks struggling to stop the run on the road was their last loss. The Seahawks lost to the Dolphin in Miami 6 weeks ago, and they allowed 189 yards on the ground that day. This not only demonstrates issue on the road, but also demonstrates issues with traveling to the east coast to play teams that have sizeable homefield advantages. Sure, the Dolphins aren't great, but they've been quite competitive against even teams such as the Patriots in games played in Miami. The Redskins should have quite a homefield advantage going into this matchup. Their crowd should be quite energized and there likely won't be many Seahawks fans traveling to D.C. this weekend.
COLTS-RAVENS: FINAL THOUGHTS
This, as I said before, could shape up to be an incredibly exciting game. The Seahawks have looked like the most dominant team in the league in the last 5 weeks, but the Redskins haven't lost in two months. The Seahawks have shown they can put up tons of points on even a defense as dominant as the 49ers. I'm sure there will be quite a few Redskins fans that will disagree wholeheartedly with the idea that the Seahawks very well may win this game, but the matchup just seems to suggest a Seattle win. It's not that the Redskins are a bad team; they're not. It's not the Seahawks are typically a good road team; they're not. It's that the Redskins simply haven't beaten any teams with impressive defenses, and their offense is too one dimensional with a hobbled RG3 to put up a lot of points on a team that allowed only 18.75 points on the road and scored 50 points in their most recent road game. I believe the Seahawks have simply gotten into an impressive groove recently and will be a tough out in the playoffs. The Redskins simply haven't faced a defense like this yet. MY PREDICTION; SEATTLE 31-27.
There's not a whole lot else to say at this point. Let's all just sit back, relax, and see if anything I say comes true! Haha, alright, but seriously, to my friends in the D.C. area, let's hope I'm wrong about the Redskins game, and...
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!!
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