The NFL playoff seeding is now complete, and only 12 teams remain of the 32 that took part in the 2012 regular season. This is where it all gets interesting; THIS is the post-season! My favorite part about the NFL playoffs as this blog is concerned is the statistical analysis that goes into the Purple Nightmare Playoff Predictions. As some of you may remember, I got only one playoff prediction incorrect last year to cap off what turned out to be a resoundingly successful first season of picks. I don't pretend as though those results will necessarily be duplicated this time around, but I'll certainly use the same logic and methods and we'll see how things unfold.
Today we'll be going over the first two games of the wildcard round that will be played this Saturday, and tomorrow I'll publish analysis and predictions of the Sunday games. The seeding in this first round of the playoffs is no surefire indication of the probable winner of each game. Each team in each one of the wildcard games is fully capable of beating the team they're slated to face, and seeding is only relevant as it determines who has home-field advantage. Home-field advantage, however, should prove a MAJOR factor this weekend.
BENGALS AT TEXANS
The Bengals have become a hot team during the timespan that the Texans have fallen sharply off from their mid-season form. The Bengals began the season losing 5 out of their first 8 games. After losing to the Dolphins, Browns, Steelers, and Broncos in a row, it appeared as though this simply wouldn't be the year for the Bengals. The Bengals, however, dominated the Giants in week 10, and just kept winning. Except for a one point loss to the Cowboys in week 14, the Bengals won every game from week 10 onward.
As for the Texans, they started to show signs of weakness in week 11 with an incredibly narrow win over the Jacksonvill Jaguars at home in Houston. This Jaguars team only won 2 games all season, so most people probably considered this game to just be a bad performance by the Texans defense at the time. I remember one commentator saying something to the effect of "even though it was close, good teams find ways to win" or some ridiculous cliche like that. The next game, however, the Texans demonstrated that the previous week's defensive struggle was no anomally.
The Texans barely beat a horrendous Detriot Lions team in overtime on Thanksgiving, but that win was only possible due to a bizarre non-call by referees that turned into a penalty and an unreviewable bogus touchdown for the Texans. Texans fans were happy thinking "hey, sometimes you get bad calls, but a win's a win." The problem with that mentality is that eventually the Texans were going to have to face a string of actual winning teams. The Texans were totally thumped by the Patriots on national T.V. in week 14, and then they proceeded to be nearly blanked by the Vikings 23-6 and beat down by the Colts 28-16 to finish the season and get knocked from the #1 seed down to the #3 spot.
Key Statistics
One of the most important strategies I stressed last season was determining which statistics are applicable, but also ignoring those that aren't. This particular match-up, however, makes it difficult to determine which statistics are truly significant. The Bengals have an impressive 6-2 road record and the Texans are 7-1 both at home AND on the road. We will, thus, have to dig a little deeper to determine if the Texans will truly have a homefield advantage at this point in the season against their wildcard opponent.
First, the Texans have recently proven a starkly different team than the one that beat the Broncos, Ravens, and Bears earlier this season. Starting at week 11, the Texans appeared vulnerable as they narrowly beat two of the worst teams in football in consecutive overtime squeakers. The key to understanding the Texans late season collapse is examining how some teams learned to stop the Texans' defense.
J.J. Watt is a serious candidate for defensive player of the year. He finished the season with 20.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, and 16 passed batted down with those enormous paws of his. Watt, however, is the only real pass-rusher on the Texans right now, and teams that stopped Watt recently tended to beat the Texans. Case in point: the Texans are 3-3 in their last 6 games., and during the 3 wins J.J. Watt amassed 8 sacks while only tallying 1 sack in the three losses. To understand this, we must go back to weeks 6 and 7.
In week 6, the Texans played their first game without their star linebacker, Brian Cushing. Cushing tore his ACL and came out for the season. Without Cushing, the Packers double teamed Watt all night to minimize the Texans pass rush. The Packers also utilized quick short and intermediate passes to spread the Texans defense and neutralize what pass rush remained and take advantage of a weak middle of the field because of Cushing's absence. Watt still had two sacks on the night, but it simply wasn't enough to stop Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
A week later, the Texans played the Ravens in week 7 at Houston. The Ravens apparently failed to learn from the Packers' success the week before and did not do NEARLY enough to minimize Watt's presence. Watt batted down and tipped numerous passes by Joe Flacco, and the Ravens, as a result, couldn't sustain drives to keep their defense off the field. The incredible contrast of these two weeks shows just how easy it is to score on the Texans defense when a team takes away J.J. Watt, but it also shows how dangerous the Texans can be if a team fails to do so.
The Texans, however, aren't the only vulnerable team. Something that went largely overlooked last week as a result of the Ravens and Bengals pulling their starters in what amounted to a preseason-style game was absence of BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Green-Ellis is suffering from a hamstring injury and is still questionable to play this weekend. I'm quite sure Green-Ellis will at least try to play, but hamstring injuries are quite delicate as they can easily become re-aggrivated. Even if the Law Firm, as he is called, does play, he may be apprehensive to play with his normal explosion for fear of reinjury. The Bengals were only able to rush for 47 yards on a Ravens defense without many starters that only ranked 20th in rush defense on the season with starters on the field. On top of that, the Bengals only managed 14 rushing yards on 16 attempts the week before against the Steelers...and Green-Ellis had 15 of those carries.
Much of the Bengals' rushing difficulties can be attributed to poor offensive line play. Andy Dalton was sacked 6 times against the Steelers, and the Steelers pash rush isn't even what it was in recent past seasons. The Bengals have stayed in games recently because of defense, and defense alone may not be able to beat a flawed Texans squad. If the Bengals hope to beat the Texans, they'll have to do so through the air.
A.J. Green is widely regarded as one of the best receivers in the NFL. He hasn't had much success against the Ravens, but he has still racked up over 1300 yards in his sophomore season in the NFL, and he's a matchup problem for most corners. Jonathan Joseph, however, is not most corners. Joseph, when he's healthy, is probably the best corner in the AFC since Darrelle Revis and Lardarius Webb went down with ACL tears. Joseph has demonstrated he has the speed and agility to cover one of the NFL's fastest deep threats in Torrey Smith; I'm quite certain he'll be up to the task of covering A.J. Green.
A.J. Green's talent and production can't be denied, but the man delivering the ball to him has actually had quite a slump in recent weeks. Andy Dalton is a talented young quarterback, but his performance dipped after a great win in San Diego. The Bengals game against the Ravens last week can't be considered a serious game, so we'll look at the three games that preceeded it. The Bengals went 2-1 in games against the Cowboys, Eagles, and Steelers in the last month of the regular season. Those 2 wins were not due to spectacular performances Dalton, though, and he threw 3 interceptions and only two touchdowns during all 3 games mentioned. Dalton will have to elevate his level of play as he likely won't have much of a running game to lean on this weekend.
BENGALS-TEXANS: FINAL THOUGHTS
The Bengals are a far hotter team than the Texans coming into this game. They've won 7 of their last 8 including impressive road wins at Pittsburgh and San Diego. Many people will be looking for a Bengals upset in this game because of a greatly improved Bengals defense and talented young players such as Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. I, however, don't believe the Bengals currently possess the offensive power to beat the Texans in Houston. The Bengals have a good defense, but that defense will ultimately wear down from being on the field too long without a running game that can sustain drives. For this reason, the Texans will put up enough points late in the game to edge the Bengals as the Cowboys did weeks ago. Without the ability run the ball, the Bengals won't be able to stop the Texans from just pinning their ears back and getting after Andy Dalton. It's possible that the Bengals actually got too much credit for blowing out a horrible Eagles team that couldn't stop turning the ball over. It's also possible the Bengals got too much credit for edging a sloppy Steelers team that had similar offensive problems to what the Bengals themselves are currently going through. Either way, recent wins over struggling teams have masked major offensive problems that have crept up on the Bengals in the last month. This game will be controlled by the Bengals until the middle of the 3rd quarter. MY PREDICTION: TEXANS 23-21.
VIKINGS AT PACKERS
There's simply no denying that Adrian Peterson deserves the NFL MVP award for 2012. His incredible come back from a knee injury that featured not one but TWO major ligament tears only makes this season all the more impressive. Even without the injuries, however, Peterson would be well deserving of this honor. He put his team on his back and fearlessly ran them into the playoffs while coming 9 yards short of the NFL single season rushing yardage record. Peyton Manning is the other name on the minds of many fans and analysts, but the Broncos went to the playoffs last year with a horrendous quarterback, so it's no surprise that they've done so well this season with arguably the best quarterback of the last 20 years. The Broncos have an incredible defense, a good running game, and an impossible talented and experienced quarterback. The Vikings, on the other hand, have Adrian Peterson...yeah that's pretty much it. Christian Ponder has looked better at times this year, but the one constant has been the unwaveringly dominant perfomance of the team's star running back.
The debate over who will win the MVP, however, has little bearing on the outcome of the upcoming Vikings-Packers game. This is a game that I believe requires less statistical analysis than many of the others. I say this because these teams have already matched up enough to get a solid gauge of how these teams play one another at their respective stadiums. It's quite simply, really; the Packers beat the Vikings soundly at Green Bay in week 13, and the Vikings just barely managed to squeak by the Packers with a last minute field goal at Minneapolis in week 17. There's no question that the Packers have an overwhelming home-field advantage. Let's take a look at exactly how overwhelming it has been this season.
Key Statistics
It's not Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense that performs better at home than on the road. The Packers defense simply steps their game up in Lambeau. The Packers' defense has been questionable for the last two seasons at times, but it finished the season allowing the 11th fewest points per game in the NFL. Sure, that's not necessarily elite, but it's not too shabby for a unit that has come under so much scrutiny as of late. The Packers were forced to endure the absence of star linebacker, Clay Matthews, and losing the centerpiece of your defense for an extended period of time is a tough loss for just about any team (just ask the Ravens). Regardless, the Packers defense gets a huge boost from having a home crowd behind them to disrupt the play of opposing offenses.
Just how big of a difference does the home crowd in Green Bay make for this defense? Well The Packers defense allowed an average of 17.5 points per game at home, but allowed 24.5 points per game on the road. The offense, by contrast, averaged 26.375 points at home and 25 points on the road--not a huge difference. So the Packers allow one touchdown and extra point per game more on the road than at home, while scoring about the same amount. That may account for the fact that the Packers are 7-1 home, and 4-4 on the road. The Packers' only loss was to a fairly dominant 49ers team in week 1 by a score of 30-22, which isn't something of which Green Bay should be ashamed.
Now the question remains: how have the Vikings fare in road games this season? The Vikings, like the Packers (and most other teams), experience a significant drop-off in performance on the road as opposed to at home. The Vikings are 3-5 on the road this season including an aforementioned 23-14 loss in Green Bay to the Packers. In the Vikings defense, every single team they lost to this season on the road won at least 10 games, but unfortunately they're playing the best one of those teams this weekend...on the road. With that said, the Vikings have come alive on the road as of late and beat the Texans in Houston 23-6, and the Rams in St. Louis 36-22. I would like to say that this indicated that the Vikings have turned the corner in road games.
The fact remains, however, that the Vikings have scored only 21.125 points per game on the road while allowing 22.875 points per game. They have looked better as of late, but only against non-divisional opponents. The Packers, Bears, and Lions held the Vikings to an average 14.66 point scored per game this season in Vikings road games. The Vikings defeated each one of those teams in Minneapolis, but how the Vikings play at home simply isn't a relevant set of statistics for analyzing this particular game.
VIKINGS-PACKERS: FINAL THOUGHTS
We could spend more time analyzing more specific details about available personnel and Adrian Peterson's spectacular play as of late, but we've already seen how the Vikings perform in Lambeau relatively recently, and that doesn't bode well for a team that has captured the hearts of many while riding on the back of one of the greatest running backs of our generation. I'm sure Adrian Peterson will play out of his mind, but Adrian Peterson ran for 210 yards and 10 yards per carry when the Vikings lost to the Packers in Green Bay a month ago, and it's simply going to take more than his impossibly valiant efforts to beat the Packers in their house. I expect Aaron Rodgers to throw at least two to three touchdowns and Christian Ponder to throw at least one (if not more) interceptions and no more than one touchdown. I'll be rooting for the Vikings with all of my heart in this game, but my brain tells me their chances are slim. MY PREDICTION: PACKERS 27-20.
GRAYTEST OF ALL TIME
I would be remiss not to mention the news that seems to be on the minds and lips of fans, commentators, and players around the U.S. today. The greatest linebacker to ever play the game, Ray Lewis, announced his plan to retire at the end of this post-season yesterday. I will miss Ray, but his decision is wise and well-timed. Ray played incredibly well during the playoffs last season, and so it made sense that he would come back one more time in hopes that the Ravens could get one step further than last season and make it to the Superbowl in 2013.
Ray has, however, missed 10 games this season while rehabbing a torn triceps, and that makes 14 games he has missed in the last two seasons. Ray's eldest son is a talented running back who will be playing at Ray's alma mater, the University of Miami, in the fall of 2013, and Big Ray promised Ray Lewis III that he'd be there to watch his games. Ray Lewis also is reportedly close to signing a deal with ESPN to possibly be a commentator or analyst of some sort. I can only think of one job he'd be better suited for at this point in his life--defensive coordinator...of the Ravens...forever. Ok, ok, maybe I'm just engaging in a little wishful thinking, but Whatever Ray does, I'm sure he'll be great.
Ray Lewis has long been hated and feared by players and fans of other teams across the U.S. He has also, however, been respected by just about all of those same people. In the twilight of his career and with the news of his retirement, Ray has garnered widespread words of respect and admiration from fans, players, and coaches everywhere. His speeches put a fire in the minds and hearts of his teammates, his work ethic inspires men to pick themselves up and be great, and his heart and humanitarian efforts have made lifelong fans of those of us who have been fortunate enough to have been touched by his generosity.
It feels as though the world of football mourns the loss of a hero, but Ray Lewis isn't gone. Hell, he isn't even retired yet. His impending retirement only gives a further sense of purpose and inspiration to his teammates to make his "final ride" through the playoffs is one to be remembered forever by Ravens fans and football fans alike. So now it's time once again for Ray to ask "WHAT TIME IS IT?!?!" because his teammates know exactly what time it is....GAME TIME!!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!
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