I'm beginning to write this blog post without any idea of which team to pick to win the NFC Championship. Unlike most people I've talked to, I don't believe the 49ers' dominant home win over the Packers is evidence that they have a clear-cut advantage going into this Sunday's game in Atlanta. Yes, Colin Kaepernick's rushing yardage was the most by any quarterback in a single game in NFL history, but it was against Packers team with horrible road defense this season. Besides, the 49ers already beat the Packers in Green bay earlier in the season, so it's no surprise that the 49ers would win quite handedly against the same team in San Francisco. The Falcons did not look particularly dominant against the Seahawks as they blew a 20-0 lead at the half to go down by a point with roughly half a minute left in the 4th quarter. Matt Ryan was able to drive his team down the field with 30 seconds and two timeouts left to set up a game-winning field goal, but I doubt the a 2 point win in their own dome was enough to thoroughly impress anyone.
The Falcons, nevertheless, have demonstrated an ability to win many games this season by slim margins. It may be that they're not a great team, or it may be that they're simply a cautious team that does just enough to win one way or another. Over the course of this season the Falcons beat the Broncos 27-21, the Panthers 30-28, the Redskins 24-17, the Raiders 23-20, the Cowboys 19-13, the Cardinals 23-19, the Buccaneers 24-23, and most recently beat the Seahawks 30-28. Not all of those teams were particularly impressive this season, but two of them made the playoffs. In the NFL, it's wins and losses that count the most and not margins of victory. For the sake of making predictions, however, margins of victory absolutely need to be taken into a account. Let's take a look at what the statistics for both teams say about their respective chances at victory this weekend.
49ERS AT FALCONS
KEY STATISTICS
One thing that does bode well for the Falcons is that they just finished beating a Seahawks team that is incredibly similar to the 49ers. The Seahawks had one of the best defenses in the league this year with a hard pounding running game and a mobile young quarterback. The Seahawks and 49ers are also similar in that they both struggled on the road at times this season. Three out of four of the 49er's losses came on the road, and most of their road wins were against teams with horrible records. It is for this reason that I believe the Falcons should not be counted out of this game, though I certainly am not particularly impressed with them.
Homefield advantage certainly isn't the only factor in determining this game, but it's a good point to begin our analysis. The Falcons' homefield advantage in the Georgia Dome during the regular season has been impressive for years now as they've only lost 6 home games in the last 3 seasons. Their only real losses this season were on the road against the Saints and Panthers. They lost their final game of the season at home, but the Falcons had already clinched a #1 seed in the playoffs and had no serious motivation to win. As I mentioned in last week's Falcons-Seahawks prediction, the Falcons offense doesn't perform significantly better at home than on the road, but the Falcons defense gets an incredible boost from home crowd noise in the Georgia Dome. The 49ers offense also doesn't perform better at home on average than it does on the road, but the 49ers defense is much better in Candlestick Park for presumably the same reason of home crowd noise advantage.
The 49ers won't have their home crowd in the Georgia Dome, and that could be a huge problem when facing a team that has impressive offensive weapons such as Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, Julio Jones, Jacquizz Rogers, and Michael Turner. Just as a reminder, the Falcons allowed only 17 points per game in the regular season at home (that number increases to 18.22 if you include last weekend's game). The 49ers defense allowed an average of 20.25 points per game on the road this season and that means they allowed roughly a touchdown more per game on the road than at home.
When looking at the 49ers offense, however, analyzing a full season of statistics is meaningless as their current starting quarterback only actually played for the second half of the regular season. It is for this reason that we'll use only games in which Colin Kaepernick started to take offensive production averages. The Kaepernick-led 49ers averaged 24.5 points on the road this season. This statistic is a tad misleading because at no time did the 49ers score anywhere near 24.5 points on the road with Kaepernick under center. During these four road games, the 49ers scored 31 points against the Saints, 13 points in a loss to the Rams, 41 points in surprising a road win against the Patriots, and 13 points in a blowout loss to the Seahawks. This shows that the 49ers are either red hot or ice cold on the road with Colin Kaepernick starting. This is good, though, as it shows us which types of teams create problems for Kaepernick and which he seems to be able to dominate on the road.
Kaepernick started in his first road game in New Orleans earlier this season. The Saints endured so much offseason turmoil that it's no surprise they finished with a losing record. Nevertheless, the Saints were still a dangerous team at times in their own stadium this season. A 31-21 score would indicate a strong offensive performance against a poor Saints defense, but that simply wasn't the case as 14 of the 49ers' 31 points came off of interceptions returned for touchdowns. Kaepernick threw for one touchdown and ran for another, and David Akers kicked a field goal for the game's final score. The 49ers, thus, relied on defensive touchdowns to win the game.
Kaepernick's next road game was a 16-13 loss to the Rams. Kaepernick threw for no touchdowns, and the 49ers' lone touchdown came from a 1 yard goaline rush by Frank Gore. The Rams sacked Kaepernick 3 times and held him to 208 passing yards. The 49ers' next road game turned out quite differently. The 49ers faced the Patriots in Foxboro, and outlasted the Patriots in a 41-34 thriller. Tom Brady threw for 443 yards and the Patriots went on a 28 point comeback, but that comeback fell short as the Patriots simply ran out of time to attempt to score one more touchdown that would have tied the game. Despite impressive passing yardage, Brady threw for only 1 touchdown, ran in another, and threw 2 interceptions. The 49ers forced a total of 4 turnovers including the two aforementioned interceptions and 2 fumbles. The 49ers also sacked Brady 3 times, while the Patriots only sacked Kaepernick once.
The 49ers' final road game was one that they'd probably like to forget. On a cold and wet night in Seattle, the Seahawks destroyed the 49ers in almost every way imaginable. The Seahawks returned a blocked field goal for a touchdown, Russell Wilson threw for 4 touchdowns, and Marshawn Lynch rushed for a touchdown. Colin Kaepernick passed for 231 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception.
The major common theme in the 49ers' road wins is that the 49ers defense forces a lot of turnovers and gives Colin Kaepernick and his offense good field position and lots of opportunities to score. The major common theme in the 49ers' road wins is that the defense fails to force a large number of turnovers and Colin Kaepernick simply isn't dynamic enough to complete enough long drives to win games. There is an interesting similarity between the two teams the 49ers beat on the road: both teams were pass-first offenses with poor pass defenses. The two teams that the 49ers lost to on the road had at least decent pass defenses. The Rams were a middle of the pack team in terms of pass yards allowed per game, but they produced a good pass rush and sacked the 49ers' quarterback 3 times. The Seahawks only sacked Kaepernick once, but they possesed a great secondary that allowed few passing yards.
I know this is a long drawn out analysis, but all of this information is key to an accurate prediction in this game, so please bear with me just a little bit longer. Now must decide what these road wins and losses mean when facing the Falcons. The Falcons certainly resemble the Saints and Patriots a lot more than they resemble the Seahawks and Rams as Atlanta possesses the 6th ranked pass and only the 23rd ranked pass defense. The Falcons don't typically fare much better stopping the run as they ranked 21st in run defense during the regular season. These rankings, however, fail to take into account the fact that the Falcons ranked 5th in total points allowed during the regular season. The Falcons displayed a fantasic ability to keep the Seahawks out of the endzone in the first half of last weekend's divisional matchup.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The vast majority of NFL fans seem to be sold on Colin Kaepernick after his electric performance against the Packers in San Francisco last week. There's no denying his talent as he ran for 180 rushing yards and outplayed one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. The problem is that the Packers still managed to score 31 points on the 49ers' defense, and that signals to me that the 49ers' defense is simply not the same with an injured Justin Smith. Smith is playing through a partially torn triceps, and that's not something a defensive lineman can play through and still be a major factor. If the 49ers defense allowed 31 points at home after a bye week, then I can't imagine they'll be any less pourous against an equally high-octane Falcons' passing attack in Atlanta. Matt Ryan won his first playoff game last week against arguably the best secondary in the NFL and he did so without ever being sacked. Like the 49ers will be doing this weekend, the Seahawks were not playing with a fully healthy defensive line as their best pass rusher, Chris Clemons, was out with a torn ACL. Matt Ryan showed he was able to overcome his two interceptions to lead a final scoring drive last week. Matt Ryan may have only won a single playoff game in his career, but he's about to win another, and this won will send him to the Superbowl. I know everyone is picking the 49ers in this one, but the Falcons' defense is simply too good in the Georgia Dome, and Matt Ryan can pass on even elite secondaries. Kaepernick is talented and athletic, but he hasn't shown the ability to lead a comeback win on the road against a playoff-caliber team.
MY PREDICTION: FALCONS 33-27
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