Recent optimism about Baltimore's chances of snagging a wildcard berth has Ravens fans feeling quite a bit better about their team than they did only one month ago. Only four weeks ago, Harbaugh and company found themselves staring down yet another year without a trip to the post season. It seemed as though injuries to starters had derailed what could have been a strong season. The Ravens, however, were not the only team to be bitten hard by the injury bug. A string of Ravens opponents experienced monumental losses of key personnel including starting elite quarterbacks and former defensive pro bowlers. Suddenly daunting games against the Texans and Packers that many fans penciled in as certain losses ended up being strong wins. The Ravens then built enough momentum to put together a convincing win last week against the Detroit Lions, and now here they sit with a 7-5 record going into Steelers week. A fairly pessimistic friend of mine recently expressed concern that the Ravens still wouldn't get into the playoffs, so I felt compelled to map out the various scenarios that would lead to the Ravens making or not making the playoffs in the 2017 season.
With a 7-5 record, the Ravens are the clear-cut frontrunners for the final wildcard spot in the AFC. Equally important to their current record is the schedule that lies before them. The Steelers game tonight certainly won't be easy, but after this weekend, the Ravens come home to face a homeless 3-9 Colts team. They then pack up and head to face a winless Cleveland Browns team before coming back home to play a banged up Bengals team that the Ravens held scoreless on the road in the first week of the season. Even if the Ravens lose to the Steelers tonight, Baltimore still has a fantastic chance of finishing 10-6 or at 9-7. They could technically finish 11-5, but it wouldn't be advisable. This is because if the Ravens win their next three games and stand at 10-5 going into the final week of the season, it would behoove them to rest their starters against the Bengals before heading into the post season the same way they did in 2012. Eleven wins likely won't secure a the division lead as the Steelers currently stand at 10-2. It would take a serious injury to Ben Roethlisberger to stop the Steelers from winning at least two of their remaining 4 games.
The Steelers' next two opponents certainly will be tough. They, of course, face a Ravens team that appears to have found its rhythm as of late, and then they face a Patriots team that hasn't lost a game since the first month of the season. Pittsburgh will take on these opponents without their starting Mike linebacker, Ryan Shazier, or his backup, Tyler Matakevich. Shazier, when healthy, is one of the most dynamic linebackers in the game. His speed is unmatched at his position as he ran a 4.3 forty yard dash at the NFL combine. Since entering the league, however, Shazier has not been able to stay healthy for an entire season. 2017 was shaping up to be Shazier's first fully healthy season in his career before he was tragically carted off the field with a major spinal injury that could potentially mean the end of his football career. Regardless of team affiliation, no one wants to see a young man lose the use of his legs, and the Steelers-Ravens rivalry is made better with the presence of great players on both sides. Purple Nightmare wishes Shazier a speedy full recovery.
Shazier isn't the only elite defender who won't suit up for the Steelers tonight. Pro Bowl corner Joe Haden has not yet resumed practicing since breaking his fibula weeks ago, and his status next week against the Patriots is in doubt as well. Haden's presence made a tremendous difference in the Steelers' ability to limit opponents' scoring. The Steelers allowed an average 16.44 points per game with a healthy Joe Haden, and that number has risen to 21.66 points per game during his absence. More troublesome for Pittsburgh has been the nature of their recent wins. A last second field goal was required to beat an Aaron Rodgers-less Packers team in Pittsburgh two weeks ago, and that came only one week after the Ravens held the same team scoreless in Green Bay. Then last Monday night the Steelers needed a last second field goal to beat a Bengals team that the Ravens held scoreless earlier in the season. That game might not have been close were it not for a phantom holding call on a beautiful bomb touchdown pass to A.J. Green as well as the Le'veon Bell being allowed to scamper free up the sidelines by a brainless Bengal instead of simply being pushed out of bounds. One must, of course, give the Steelers credit for finding a way to continue to win, but extremely close games against crappy teams implies this Pittsburgh squad isn't as ferocious as their record would suggest at the moment.
The Ravens have suffered their own serious injury as of late with Jimmy Smith tearing his Achilles against the Lions. Smith's absence was immediately felt as the Lions suddenly began to mount a comeback and picked on Smith's replacement, Marlon Humphrey. Humphrey was out-hustled and out-muscled by Marvin Jones, and he'll face a far more daunting task tonight anytime he finds himself lined up across from Antonio Brown. The Ravens defensive coordinator will likely not feel as comfortable bringing as many defensive backs on blitzes without Smith in the game to lock down his side, so the Ravens will need to find ways to consistently generate pressure from their front 4 and front 7. One thing has helped prepare the Ravens to defend opponents without Jimmy Smith at their disposal, and that has been Jimmy Smith's consistent absence. Despite his high level of play this season, a nagging Achilles injury forced Jimmy Smith to play a portion of the defensive snaps on any given game over the past few months. Beyond this season, the Ravens have, of course, dealt with consistent injuries in all but one of Jimmy Smith's seasons in the league. In only 2013 did Jimmy Smith play all 16 games, and he played at a Pro Bowl level as a result. The team is, nevertheless, unquestionably better when he can suit up.
Because of Jimmy Smith's injury history, the Ravens staff made absolutely sure to load up on quality corners for this season. Marlon Humphrey, despite struggling at times last week, has played extremely well this season, and Brandon Carr delivered a consistent quality of coverage as well as 3 impressive interceptions. Maurice Canady finally became healthy this season, and his presence gives the Ravens a corner who can be plugged in both on the outside and against slot receivers. These three corners make up a better trio than those that took the field for the Ravens in the heartbreaking last minute loss to the Steelers last Christmas. This group certainly won't shut the Steelers defense down, but hopefully they'll be better able to limit a second-half surge by the Steelers offense that we have seen over the past couple of weeks.
The Steelers and Ravens will both be missing their aforementioned most frequently injured defensive stars tonight, but that won't necessarily mean a high scoring affair. Despite spectacular weapons such as Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, the Steelers have averaged just 23.4 points per game, which is barely more than the Ravens' 23.3 point average. The Ravens have also struggled offensively for most of the season, but have come on as of late. Baltimore has won four of their last 5 games, and during that stretch, they've scored an average of exactly 30 points per game and held opponents over that stretch to a staggering 11.8 points per game. The Steelers, over their last 5 contests, have scored 26.8 points per game and allowed an average of 19.7 points per game. That means the Steelers scoring differential has been roughly a touchdown while the Ravens scoring differential has been just over 18 points per game. Before anyone suggests that this has to do with who the Ravens have played over the last 5 games, let's remember that the Ravens have Steelers have faced numerous common opponents over their last 5 games including the Titans, Packers, and Lions.
Many will cite the close nature of the vast majority of Ravens-Steelers games as a reason why season records should be thrown out the window. This line of reasoning holds merit as the Ravens swept the Steelers in 2015 despite only winning 5 games total on the season. A level of familiarity exists between these teams that makes statistics gathered during games against other opponents decidedly less significant. Neither of these teams NEEDS a win tonight to make the playoffs, but a win for the Steelers would clinch the division, and a win for the Ravens could ultimately afford them the ability to have a virtual bye week in Week 17. The Steelers would LIKE to win tonight to help keep pace for the conference lead with the Patriots, but if the Steelers lose tonight and then find a way to beat the Patriots next week, they'll still have the inside track for the #1 seed in the playoffs if they can win the rest of their regular season games.
Ok, we have gotten a bit sidetracked, but I assure you that all this information is absolutely necessary for the full picture. The Ravens still do have some other teams chasing them for wildcard spots including all of the current 6-win teams in the AFC: the Bills, Chiefs, Chargers, and Raiders. The Chiefs currently hold their division lead and the 4th seed, but they've dropped 6 of their last 7 games and simply don't appear equipped to turn their once promising season around. If, however, the Chiefs do turn things around and maintain their division lead, it only means that they will have knocked off two of their divisional rivals who also happen to by wildcard contenders in the Chargers and Raiders. I firmly the believe the Raiders will, in fact, beat a very different Chiefs team today than the one that beat the Raiders earlier this season. The Chargers will also likely beat the hapless Chiefs next week, and that would likely eliminate the Chiefs both from divisional and wildcard contention.
The Chargers, meanwhile, have won 6 of their last 8 games, and can prove themselves as well as likely win their division by winning 3 of their remaining 4 games. With upcoming games against the already-eliminated-from-contention Redskins, the freefalling Chiefs, the Jets, and the Raiders, the Chargers absolutely have a clear path to the playoffs. This doesn't mean the Chargers are exactly sensational as they only beat the Browns last week 19-10, but they've displayed some serious offensive fireworks at times with Philip Rivers leading the...heh...charge. All bad jokes aside, this team could be a serious dark horse in the playoffs, and every other AFC team knows it. The Chargers aren't the only AFC West team to have an upswing in play after dip earlier in the season. The Raiders have won 3 of their last 4 games, but unlike the Chargers, they face a far tougher road ahead. The Raiders will be getting Amari Cooper back healthy this week, but the only relatively soft left on the their schedule is the Chiefs. The Oakland still has to face the Cowboys, Eagles, and then the Chargers to finish out the regular season, and they could easily lose all three of those games to finish the season with a disappointing 7-9 record. Even if the Raiders find a way to beat both the Chiefs and Cowboys, it seems unlikely they'll beat both the Eagles and Chargers as well. Oh, and even if the Raiders finish 9-7 and the Ravens also finish 9-7, the Raiders won't be able to occupy the final wildcard spot because of the Ravens' head to head victory in Oakland earlier this season.
Ok, so what does all of this mean? It means that for any one of the AFC West teams to get hot and take hold of their division, they have to knock out the other two division contenders. In that way, they're doing the Ravens a favor. Also, by knocking off the other wildcard contenders in the division, the Chargers, for example, would take themselves out of wildcard contention by winning their own division and occupying an entirely different playoff spot. The only non-AFC West 6-win wildcard contender remaining is the Buffalo Bills, and they will be without their starting quarterback today in a game they will likely lose as a result. That will leave them 6-7 heading into a three-game stretch against the Dolphins, Patriots, and Dolphins again. The Bills could sweep the Dolphins and still be virtually eliminated from playoff contention by one more loss to a highly motivated Patriots team. The moral of this story? The Ravens likely only need to win 3 of their remaining 4 games to secure a playoff spot, and hopefully the first of those three will come tonight against a formidable but banged up Steelers team.
WEEK 14 NFL PICKS
COLTS AT BILLS- Tyrod Taylor hasn't exactly had a flawless season, but with him out, the Bills have nothing to give--and he's out today. COLTS 24-14
BEARS AT BENGALS- The Bears would do everyone a favor by winning their first game in weeks and knocking off the Bengals entirely, but that simply doesn't seem likely here. The Bears can't make the playoffs, but the Bengals have a tiny sliver of hope to do so, and they'll be motivated at home to keep that sliver of hope alive. The Bengals are quite banged up, but they still have more firepower than the Bears. Hope I'm wrong about this one. BENGALS 28-17
PACKERS AT BROWNS- The Browns have steadily improved, but they haven't improved enough to win a game. The Packers aren't exactly setting the league on fire without Aaron Rodgers, but they still have good enough wide receivers and enough talent from their backup quarterback to outscore a team that has yet to outscore any opponent on the season. DeShone Kiser has a tendency to turn the ball over. This will be a little close for comfort, however. PACKERS 23-19
RAIDERS AT CHIEFS- The return of Amari Cooper and the absence of Marcus Peters will spell doom for a Chiefs team that has won 1 out of their last 7 games after beginning the season in spectacular 5-0 fashion. The Chiefs have proven that it's truly not how you begin the season but how you finish. RAIDERS 20-17
COWBOYS AT GIANTS- Only one of these teams has even the smallest of outside chances to go to the playoffs, and it's not the Giants. Sure, it's possible Eli Manning might have a chip on his shoulder after being recently benched, but it's not as though he was leading his team to numerous victories earlier this season. The Giants have won 2 games--that's it. The Cowboys proved earlier this season that they match up quite well with this depressing Giants team. COWBOYS 31-14
LIONS AT BUCCANEERS- Matthew Stafford may still have some pain in his throwing hand after it was stepped on last weekend, but I'm still going to pick him to have a rebound game against a relatively useless Bucs team. LIONS 27-21
VIKINGS AT PANTHERS- Regardless of the Eagles' record, the Vikings are the strongest team in the NFC as they've beaten more teams with winning records than any other franchise in the league this season. The Panthers aren't bad, but they haven't been impressive against playoff caliber teams this season. Two major injuries to the Vikings offensive line, however, will keep this game much closer than the Vikings would prefer. VIKINGS 17-14
49ERS AT TEXANS-the 49ers' first glimmer of hope on the season was last week's 1-point win over the Bears with their new starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo offering the promise of stability at a position that has haunted San Francisco since 2013. With that said, the Texans still have enough weapons on both sides of the ball to beat the 49ers at home, but this will actually be a good game against two teams that could become much better next season. TEXANS 24-20
JETS AT BRONCOS- The Jets will not make the playoffs with a 5-7 record and the Saints, Chargers, and Patriots still remaining on their schedule. They are, however, good enough to put up a strong performance against one of the very worst teams in the league. There isn't a rational explanation for why the Broncos are as bad as they are--but they are. JETS 34-21
TITANS AT CARDINALS- Losers of 3 of their last 4 games, the Cardinals simply don't have the clout to consistently take down quality teams. Tennessee is highly motivated and loaded with weapons. They must maintain their pace to keep the Jaguars from wrestling the division title away. The Titans are only 3-3 on the road, so I don't expect this to be a piece of cake. TITANS 30-24
REDSKINS AT CHARGERS- The Redskins can no longer make the playoffs, and despite their win in Seattle over the Seahawks several weeks ago, it's tough to imagine them traveling across country again and upsetting a contender--especially one as hot as the Chargers right now. CHARGERS 31-27
EAGLES AT RAMS- The Eagles have had a great season, but they've done so in large part to their strength of schedule. Philly has only beaten a single team this season that currently possesses a winning record. The Rams have absolutely dominated the bad teams, but they've also had some impressive wins over other top contenders including the Saints and Jaguars. RAMS 26-21
SEAHAWKS AT JAGUARS- The Seahawks have performed admirably with so many of their defensive stars out, but they will be out of their element when traveling across country to take on an incredibly opportunistic Jaguars defense. JAGUARS 21-17
PATRIOTS AT DOLPHINS- It's tough to see the Patriots losing another game unless they rest their starters after clinching the #1 seed. The Steelers' 10-2 record will likely mean the Patriots will have to wait until the first round of the playoffs to rest. PATRIOTS 34-21
RAVENS AT STEELERS- This will be a far more evenly matched game than the first meeting of these teams in the first quarter of the season. The Ravens and Steelers are both out their best corners, but the Steelers are playing on a slightly shorter week and will be without their best linebacker and his backup. The Ravens have started to produce well on offense, and their defense, though it will be without Jimmy Smith, will have a healthy Brandon Williams. Williams didn't suit up for the last matchup between these two teams, and he should help limit Le'veon Bell to a much lower rushing total than the 144 yards he put up in Week 4. Joe Flacco's back is finally healthy, and his accuracy, especially on deep passes, has reflected it. The Ravens offensive line has finally become solidified with Matt Skura healthy and fully adjusted to his position, and the fumbling issues Alex Collins experienced early this season have totally disappeared. I know the Steelers have emotional motivation to win this game for their fallen comrade, but the Ravens need the win more from a playoff hunt standpoint. Pittsburgh has looked sluggish in the first halves of games and barely beaten some mediocre teams over the last couple of weeks. The Ravens are not a mediocre team. The season isn't over the Ravens lose this game, but as banged up as the Steelers defense is right now this is their opportunity to prove themselves to the league. Justin Tucker has another big day. RAVENS 26-24.
THIS IS IT, RAVENS FANS. THIS IS WHAT WE LIVE FOR. IT'S STEELERS WEEK!!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, December 10, 2017
Sunday, December 3, 2017
WEEK 13 NFL PREDICTIONS
The Detroit Lions present a problem not seen by the Ravens in quite some time: an elite starting quarterback. Matthew Stafford does not yet and may not ever possess a Super Bowl ring, but he ranks 5th in the NFL this season in passing yards. The Ravens schedule has been so incredibly devoid of elite starting quarterbacks, with the exception of Ben Roethlisberger, that it's possible their pass defense's ranking is at least somewhat over-inflated. That isn't to say that the Ravens defense isn't good this season; it's just that it hasn't been tested to the same degree as other defenses around the league.
Last Monday's win over a thoroughly broken Texans squad displayed some glaring weaknesses in Baltimore's defensive unit. One of the top 3 most talented receivers in the league found ways to embarrass the Ravens' top corner, Jimmy Smith, despite the fact that Houston was missing both its starting quarterback and #2 receiver to help take pressure off of the #1. For the first time in my memory, Jimmy Smith was physically dominated and repeatedly humiliated by DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins didn't find the endzone, and he didn't put up Antonio Brown caliber numbers, but that's because what the Ravens sometimes lack in coverage skills they make up for with turnovers. This isn't a Ravens defense that just stonewalls an opponent. They've nearly all of their worst opponents to move the ball--sometimes with startling ease. Teams have run the ball right through the teeth of the Ravens front seven many times this season, and they even did so at times after Brandon Williams returned to health.
A huge part of what made the Ravens run defense more dominant early on in the season was the physical dominance of Brent Urban. Urban has since gone on injured reserve, and his run stuffing ability has been sorely missed for much of the 2017 season. Fortunately for the Ravens, the Lions run the football quite poorly. Detroit ranks 30th in the league in rushing, and that will help Baltimore turn them into a relatively one-dimensional opponent. Most of the Ravens losses have come against teams with top 10 rushing offenses. The Jaguars rank first in the league running the football, the Vikings rank 7th, the Bears rank 8th, and despite not ranking in the top 10, the Steelers have one of the best running backs in the game who had a particularly strong game against Baltimore earlier this season. Fittingly, nearly all of the Ravens' wins have come against opponents ranked in the bottom half of the league in rushing as the Bengals rank 31st, the Miami ranks 29th, Oakland ranks 27th, Green Bay ranks 22nd, and Cleveland ranks 18th.
Not only is Detroit's rush offense weak this year, but they also struggle to stop the run...and the pass. Detroit ranks 22nd against the pass and 22nd against the run. If there's one thing the Ravens have faced this season it's elite defenses, so a defense ranked in the bottom third of the league will be a merciful break for a Baltimore offense ranked near dead last in total yardage. The Ravens have had to face the top ranked defense of the Jaguars, the 4th ranked defense of the Steelers, the 5th ranked defense of the Vikings, the 9th ranked defense of the Browns, the 11th ranked defense of the Titans, the 12th ranked defense of the Bears, and the 13th ranked defense of the Bengals. It should, therefore, come as no surprise that the Ravens offense has struggled. Detroit's defense is ranked 24th overall, and if Baltimore can't move the football this week, they probably won't find a ton of success against the 3 remaining defenses in the top half of the league they're scheduled to face going forward.
If the Ravens offense is going to find success, it will need the defense to keep the Lions' offense off the field. Two factors bode well for the Ravens defense's odds of limiting time of possession for Matthew Stafford and company. The first factor is that the Lions haven't protected Stafford particularly well. They have, in fact, given up the third most sacks in the league this season with 36. The Ravens, by contrast, have only allowed Flacco to be sacked 23 times. That lead's us to the other factor. Stafford endured an ankle injury on Thanksgiving, and though he has been reported to be a full participant in practice, the gunslinger was limping on the field just over a week ago. It would be a reasonable assumption that Stafford will be at least somewhat limited in his mobility, and that could easily leave him a sitting duck against a Ravens defense that is tied for 10th in the league with 30 sacks thus far on the season. To add to that, a lack of an effective rushing attack will allow the Ravens to pin their ears back and go after him. Terrell Suggs could easily have another 2-sack game against a team that has given up an average of 3.27 sacks per game on the season.
The Lions road record is a surprisingly strong 4-1 at the moment. It's unusual for a dome team to win almost all its games on the road and only a third of its games at home. That may have less to do with the Lions' status as road warriors and more to do with which opponents they actually faced on the road as opposed to in Detroit. The 4 Lions road wins came against a useless Giants team, the Vikings right after they nearly simultaneously lost Sam Bradford, Dalvin Cook, and Stephon Diggs (temporarily) to injuries, a Packers team without Aaron Rodgers, and a Bears team with an inexperienced rookie at quarterback. Now compare that schedule to the Lions' home schedule which included losses to teams such as the Steelers, healthier Vikings, Panthers, and Falcons. That isn't to say that the Lions haven't had some quality road wins. They beat two teams that beat the Ravens in the Bears and Vikings, but those are also opponents with which the Lions have divisional familiarity.
The Ravens aren't in the Lions' division, but there will be a degree of familiarity as the Lions' head coach used to be the Ravens offensive coordinator, and the Lions defensive coordinator used to be a Ravens defensive assistant. Detroit could, thus, have some insight into the Ravens defensive schemes, and the Ravens could have insight into much of what Detroit does on both sides of the ball. The Lions will be coming off of a longer rest period than the Ravens, but the Baltimore doesn't have to travel and is reportedly is a healthier team than possibly at any other point in the season. The Lions have a quarterback coming off of an aforementioned ankle injury, and they'll be missing their starting strong safety. This should open things up for a Ravens rushing offense that has already found a good deal of success this season, and it should help open things up for a Ravens passing game that has been worse this year than nearly any other point in team history.
It's important for fans in Baltimore to remember that this game isn't a must-win contest. It would be huge if the Ravens could put down a team with a weak defense and a one-dimensional offense, but if Stafford has a big day and the Ravens can't manage to force any meaningful turnovers, this could be a shootout Baltimore simply isn't equipped to win. With that said, if the Browns can put up 24 points on this Lions defense, I have no doubt the Ravens can do better considering their homefield advantage and strong rushing offense. Even if Baltimore doesn't win tomorrow, the Ravens still have extremely winnable games coming up against the Colts, Browns, and Bengals, and winning just those three games would give the Ravens a 9-7 record and likely a wildcard berth in the playoffs. If the Ravens CAN manage to win on Sunday, they could potentially reach 9 wins by the second to last week of the season. If getting to 9 wins before the end of the season allows the Ravens to clinch a playoff spot a week early, as I have mentioned in previous posts, Harbaugh could afford to rest his starters in the final game of the regular season the way he did the last time the Ravens won a Super Bowl. I'm not saying this team is anywhere remotely as good as the one that emerged victorious in February of 2013, but an extra by week before the wildcard round of the playoffs would likely go a long way to ensure Joe Flacco doesn't make his very first early playoff exit.
THE PICKS
VIKINGS AT FALCONS- The Falcons have heated up as of late, but they're not strong enough to put up big points on this defense, and their not stout enough defensively to stop a surprisingly impressive Vikings offense. VIKINGS 31-24
PATRIOTS AT BILLS- The two remaining games against the Patriots are a big reason the Ravens will likely maintain their lead in the playoff push over the Bills. The Patriots have averaged over 36 points per game in the last 3 weeks, and they've won their last 7 straight...good luck Tyrod. PATRIOTS 42-23
49ERS AT BEARS- Jimmy Garoppolo will ultimately be an improvement over the crappy quarterbacks the 49ers have used this season, but he's still learning San Francisco's offense. The Bears aren't a particularly great team, but they're better than the 49ers, and they own homefield advantage this week. BEARS 26-17
BUCCANEERS AT PACKERS- The Packers found a nice rhythm last week against the Steelers even they did ultimately lose. I truly liked what a I saw on the road against a top defense. This is the week where Green Bay beats up on an opponent much lesser than Pittsburgh. Oh and Aaron Jones is reportedly going to return to add a dimension to the Green Bay offense. PACKERS 34-21
TEXANS AT TITANS- The Titans have won 5 of their last 6 games and will out pace the Texans offensively. TITANS 23-13
BRONCOS AT DOLPHINS- This is an evenly matched game because both of these teams are doing so incredibly poorly right now. I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Broncos, who have scored an average of 14 points per game and allowed an average of just over 29 points per game during their current 7 game losing streak, are not going to win this game. DOLPHINS 27-19
CHIEFS AT JETS- Both of these teams have only a single win over their last 6 games. It's difficult, however, to know why a Chiefs team that is struggling so hard to score each week would be favored to win this game. The Chiefs appear to be given too much credit for their dominant streak with which they began the season, but one particular factor appears to have derailed their season, and it's not one that many people would expect. Speedy young wide receiver Chris Conley didn't put up monster statistics this season, but his presence helped to stretch the field and take pressure off of the Chiefs' other weapons. Conley last played against the Texans, and that was the last game of the Chiefs' winning streak. With Conley on the field, the Chiefs scored an average of 32.8 points per game, and without Conley, the Chiefs have scored an average of only 18 points per game. The Jets haven't fared much better, but they haven't been quite as offensively anemic as of late. I'm going with the home team here. JETS 21-17
COLTS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars have lost a pair of upset games this season, but they dominated the Colts 27-0 in Indianapolis earlier, and it's unreasonable to assume the Colts will find significantly more success in Jacksonville. JAGUARS 30-7
BROWNS AT CHARGERS- The Chargers are red-hot at the moment and they know very well they can overtake the Chiefs for their division lead. The Browns will get Josh Gordon back, so this will be a more competitive game than many realize, but it's difficult to think that the Browns will be able to travel across the country and outscore Philip Rivers the way he he's playing right now. The Chargers have won 5 of their last 7 games with their two losses coming in narrow fashion against the Patriots and Jaguars. The Chargers have found a particular offensive rhythm over the past couple of weeks with a total of 82 points scored. This team is dangerous. CHARGERS 38-24
GIANTS AT RAIDERS- Geno Smith? Well that made this one quite easy. RAIDERS 21-13
PANTHERS AT SAINTS- The Panthers have an excellent road record of 5-1 this season, but the way they played against a losing Jets squad last week, it's difficult to thing the Saints offense won't rack up a ton of points in this one. Oh and the Saints already beat the Panthers in Charlotte earlier this season--badly (34-13). SAINTS 42-24
RAMS AT CARDINALS- The Rams already beat the Cardinals 33-0 a little over a month ago. RAMS 28-13
EAGLES AT SEAHAWKS- The Seahawks are a shell of their formers selves without an intact legion of boom. The Eagles are the most complete team in the league and shouldn't struggle to move the ball against a team that has lost at home to both the Falcons and Redskins over the last month. EAGLES 31-21
STEELERS AT BENGALS- The Bengals don't have nearly enough firepower to keep this competitive against a Steelers offense that's hitting its stride as of late. The Bengals will also be without a pair of starting linebackers going into a game where they'll need all the defensive playmakers they can muster. STEELERS 33-17
LIONS AT RAVENS- The Lions will be without their starting center and their starting strong safety today. Matthew Stafford is also just over a week removed from an ankle injury, and after he incurred that injury, he was 3-6 for 7 passing yards against the Vikings last week. I'm sure he's feeling someone better and he's been shot full of pain killers, but it's difficult to imagine that Stafford will be 100% in the mobility department. The Ravens are as healthy as they're going to be at this time of year, and they shouldn't struggle to move the ball against a team that struggles to stop the run the way Detroit does. With that said, this will be a long day if Baltimore can't get pressure on Stafford. Justin Tucker will come up big today with 4 critical field goals. RAVENS 26-24
BUCKLE UP, BALTIMORE. THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE THE RAVENS PLAY THEIR BEST, MOST PHYSICAL FOOTBALL! HEEEERE KITTY-KITTY-KITTY...
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Last Monday's win over a thoroughly broken Texans squad displayed some glaring weaknesses in Baltimore's defensive unit. One of the top 3 most talented receivers in the league found ways to embarrass the Ravens' top corner, Jimmy Smith, despite the fact that Houston was missing both its starting quarterback and #2 receiver to help take pressure off of the #1. For the first time in my memory, Jimmy Smith was physically dominated and repeatedly humiliated by DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins didn't find the endzone, and he didn't put up Antonio Brown caliber numbers, but that's because what the Ravens sometimes lack in coverage skills they make up for with turnovers. This isn't a Ravens defense that just stonewalls an opponent. They've nearly all of their worst opponents to move the ball--sometimes with startling ease. Teams have run the ball right through the teeth of the Ravens front seven many times this season, and they even did so at times after Brandon Williams returned to health.
A huge part of what made the Ravens run defense more dominant early on in the season was the physical dominance of Brent Urban. Urban has since gone on injured reserve, and his run stuffing ability has been sorely missed for much of the 2017 season. Fortunately for the Ravens, the Lions run the football quite poorly. Detroit ranks 30th in the league in rushing, and that will help Baltimore turn them into a relatively one-dimensional opponent. Most of the Ravens losses have come against teams with top 10 rushing offenses. The Jaguars rank first in the league running the football, the Vikings rank 7th, the Bears rank 8th, and despite not ranking in the top 10, the Steelers have one of the best running backs in the game who had a particularly strong game against Baltimore earlier this season. Fittingly, nearly all of the Ravens' wins have come against opponents ranked in the bottom half of the league in rushing as the Bengals rank 31st, the Miami ranks 29th, Oakland ranks 27th, Green Bay ranks 22nd, and Cleveland ranks 18th.
Not only is Detroit's rush offense weak this year, but they also struggle to stop the run...and the pass. Detroit ranks 22nd against the pass and 22nd against the run. If there's one thing the Ravens have faced this season it's elite defenses, so a defense ranked in the bottom third of the league will be a merciful break for a Baltimore offense ranked near dead last in total yardage. The Ravens have had to face the top ranked defense of the Jaguars, the 4th ranked defense of the Steelers, the 5th ranked defense of the Vikings, the 9th ranked defense of the Browns, the 11th ranked defense of the Titans, the 12th ranked defense of the Bears, and the 13th ranked defense of the Bengals. It should, therefore, come as no surprise that the Ravens offense has struggled. Detroit's defense is ranked 24th overall, and if Baltimore can't move the football this week, they probably won't find a ton of success against the 3 remaining defenses in the top half of the league they're scheduled to face going forward.
If the Ravens offense is going to find success, it will need the defense to keep the Lions' offense off the field. Two factors bode well for the Ravens defense's odds of limiting time of possession for Matthew Stafford and company. The first factor is that the Lions haven't protected Stafford particularly well. They have, in fact, given up the third most sacks in the league this season with 36. The Ravens, by contrast, have only allowed Flacco to be sacked 23 times. That lead's us to the other factor. Stafford endured an ankle injury on Thanksgiving, and though he has been reported to be a full participant in practice, the gunslinger was limping on the field just over a week ago. It would be a reasonable assumption that Stafford will be at least somewhat limited in his mobility, and that could easily leave him a sitting duck against a Ravens defense that is tied for 10th in the league with 30 sacks thus far on the season. To add to that, a lack of an effective rushing attack will allow the Ravens to pin their ears back and go after him. Terrell Suggs could easily have another 2-sack game against a team that has given up an average of 3.27 sacks per game on the season.
The Lions road record is a surprisingly strong 4-1 at the moment. It's unusual for a dome team to win almost all its games on the road and only a third of its games at home. That may have less to do with the Lions' status as road warriors and more to do with which opponents they actually faced on the road as opposed to in Detroit. The 4 Lions road wins came against a useless Giants team, the Vikings right after they nearly simultaneously lost Sam Bradford, Dalvin Cook, and Stephon Diggs (temporarily) to injuries, a Packers team without Aaron Rodgers, and a Bears team with an inexperienced rookie at quarterback. Now compare that schedule to the Lions' home schedule which included losses to teams such as the Steelers, healthier Vikings, Panthers, and Falcons. That isn't to say that the Lions haven't had some quality road wins. They beat two teams that beat the Ravens in the Bears and Vikings, but those are also opponents with which the Lions have divisional familiarity.
The Ravens aren't in the Lions' division, but there will be a degree of familiarity as the Lions' head coach used to be the Ravens offensive coordinator, and the Lions defensive coordinator used to be a Ravens defensive assistant. Detroit could, thus, have some insight into the Ravens defensive schemes, and the Ravens could have insight into much of what Detroit does on both sides of the ball. The Lions will be coming off of a longer rest period than the Ravens, but the Baltimore doesn't have to travel and is reportedly is a healthier team than possibly at any other point in the season. The Lions have a quarterback coming off of an aforementioned ankle injury, and they'll be missing their starting strong safety. This should open things up for a Ravens rushing offense that has already found a good deal of success this season, and it should help open things up for a Ravens passing game that has been worse this year than nearly any other point in team history.
It's important for fans in Baltimore to remember that this game isn't a must-win contest. It would be huge if the Ravens could put down a team with a weak defense and a one-dimensional offense, but if Stafford has a big day and the Ravens can't manage to force any meaningful turnovers, this could be a shootout Baltimore simply isn't equipped to win. With that said, if the Browns can put up 24 points on this Lions defense, I have no doubt the Ravens can do better considering their homefield advantage and strong rushing offense. Even if Baltimore doesn't win tomorrow, the Ravens still have extremely winnable games coming up against the Colts, Browns, and Bengals, and winning just those three games would give the Ravens a 9-7 record and likely a wildcard berth in the playoffs. If the Ravens CAN manage to win on Sunday, they could potentially reach 9 wins by the second to last week of the season. If getting to 9 wins before the end of the season allows the Ravens to clinch a playoff spot a week early, as I have mentioned in previous posts, Harbaugh could afford to rest his starters in the final game of the regular season the way he did the last time the Ravens won a Super Bowl. I'm not saying this team is anywhere remotely as good as the one that emerged victorious in February of 2013, but an extra by week before the wildcard round of the playoffs would likely go a long way to ensure Joe Flacco doesn't make his very first early playoff exit.
THE PICKS
VIKINGS AT FALCONS- The Falcons have heated up as of late, but they're not strong enough to put up big points on this defense, and their not stout enough defensively to stop a surprisingly impressive Vikings offense. VIKINGS 31-24
PATRIOTS AT BILLS- The two remaining games against the Patriots are a big reason the Ravens will likely maintain their lead in the playoff push over the Bills. The Patriots have averaged over 36 points per game in the last 3 weeks, and they've won their last 7 straight...good luck Tyrod. PATRIOTS 42-23
49ERS AT BEARS- Jimmy Garoppolo will ultimately be an improvement over the crappy quarterbacks the 49ers have used this season, but he's still learning San Francisco's offense. The Bears aren't a particularly great team, but they're better than the 49ers, and they own homefield advantage this week. BEARS 26-17
BUCCANEERS AT PACKERS- The Packers found a nice rhythm last week against the Steelers even they did ultimately lose. I truly liked what a I saw on the road against a top defense. This is the week where Green Bay beats up on an opponent much lesser than Pittsburgh. Oh and Aaron Jones is reportedly going to return to add a dimension to the Green Bay offense. PACKERS 34-21
TEXANS AT TITANS- The Titans have won 5 of their last 6 games and will out pace the Texans offensively. TITANS 23-13
BRONCOS AT DOLPHINS- This is an evenly matched game because both of these teams are doing so incredibly poorly right now. I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Broncos, who have scored an average of 14 points per game and allowed an average of just over 29 points per game during their current 7 game losing streak, are not going to win this game. DOLPHINS 27-19
CHIEFS AT JETS- Both of these teams have only a single win over their last 6 games. It's difficult, however, to know why a Chiefs team that is struggling so hard to score each week would be favored to win this game. The Chiefs appear to be given too much credit for their dominant streak with which they began the season, but one particular factor appears to have derailed their season, and it's not one that many people would expect. Speedy young wide receiver Chris Conley didn't put up monster statistics this season, but his presence helped to stretch the field and take pressure off of the Chiefs' other weapons. Conley last played against the Texans, and that was the last game of the Chiefs' winning streak. With Conley on the field, the Chiefs scored an average of 32.8 points per game, and without Conley, the Chiefs have scored an average of only 18 points per game. The Jets haven't fared much better, but they haven't been quite as offensively anemic as of late. I'm going with the home team here. JETS 21-17
COLTS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars have lost a pair of upset games this season, but they dominated the Colts 27-0 in Indianapolis earlier, and it's unreasonable to assume the Colts will find significantly more success in Jacksonville. JAGUARS 30-7
BROWNS AT CHARGERS- The Chargers are red-hot at the moment and they know very well they can overtake the Chiefs for their division lead. The Browns will get Josh Gordon back, so this will be a more competitive game than many realize, but it's difficult to think that the Browns will be able to travel across the country and outscore Philip Rivers the way he he's playing right now. The Chargers have won 5 of their last 7 games with their two losses coming in narrow fashion against the Patriots and Jaguars. The Chargers have found a particular offensive rhythm over the past couple of weeks with a total of 82 points scored. This team is dangerous. CHARGERS 38-24
GIANTS AT RAIDERS- Geno Smith? Well that made this one quite easy. RAIDERS 21-13
PANTHERS AT SAINTS- The Panthers have an excellent road record of 5-1 this season, but the way they played against a losing Jets squad last week, it's difficult to thing the Saints offense won't rack up a ton of points in this one. Oh and the Saints already beat the Panthers in Charlotte earlier this season--badly (34-13). SAINTS 42-24
RAMS AT CARDINALS- The Rams already beat the Cardinals 33-0 a little over a month ago. RAMS 28-13
EAGLES AT SEAHAWKS- The Seahawks are a shell of their formers selves without an intact legion of boom. The Eagles are the most complete team in the league and shouldn't struggle to move the ball against a team that has lost at home to both the Falcons and Redskins over the last month. EAGLES 31-21
STEELERS AT BENGALS- The Bengals don't have nearly enough firepower to keep this competitive against a Steelers offense that's hitting its stride as of late. The Bengals will also be without a pair of starting linebackers going into a game where they'll need all the defensive playmakers they can muster. STEELERS 33-17
LIONS AT RAVENS- The Lions will be without their starting center and their starting strong safety today. Matthew Stafford is also just over a week removed from an ankle injury, and after he incurred that injury, he was 3-6 for 7 passing yards against the Vikings last week. I'm sure he's feeling someone better and he's been shot full of pain killers, but it's difficult to imagine that Stafford will be 100% in the mobility department. The Ravens are as healthy as they're going to be at this time of year, and they shouldn't struggle to move the ball against a team that struggles to stop the run the way Detroit does. With that said, this will be a long day if Baltimore can't get pressure on Stafford. Justin Tucker will come up big today with 4 critical field goals. RAVENS 26-24
BUCKLE UP, BALTIMORE. THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE THE RAVENS PLAY THEIR BEST, MOST PHYSICAL FOOTBALL! HEEEERE KITTY-KITTY-KITTY...
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, November 26, 2017
WEEK 12 NFL PREDICTIONS
Thanksgiving didn't feature much in the way of exciting NFL football. The Redskins-Giants game was one of the most painful displays of professional football in the last several decades, the Cowboys scored only a single touchdown for the 3rd straight week without Ezekiel Elliott, and the Vikings tightened their stranglehold on the NFC North with their win in Detroit. These games might appear to have nothing to do with the Ravens, but there are at least a couple of points that may prove pertinent to the Ravens' upcoming schedule.
The Detroit Lions will play the Ravens in Week 13, and if Thanksgiving's first game was any indication, that won't be an easy task. It certainly seemed at times as though the Vikings dominated the Lions on Thursday, but Detroit finished only one touchdown behind. One shouldn't glean too much from a divisional game considering they're often competitive despite a disparity in the overall strength of the teams playing, but the Lions are no sort of pushovers. Not only will the Lions be coming off of nearly a week and a half of rest, but they also boast a 4-1 road record on the season, and the Ravens haven't been invincible at home in years.
Beating the Lions could very well be a tough task, but it also might not be necessary considering the rest of the Ravens remaining schedule. It will likely take only 9 wins to clinch a wildcard spot, and the other teams within striking distance have much tougher upcoming opponents. One team thought to be totally out of the running for a playoff spot is the Chargers. Philip Rivers and company lost 6 of their first 9 games, but they have now won 5 of their last 7 to improve to 5-6 on the season. What has been even more impressive is just how explosive the Chargers offense has been for the past two weeks. They scored a whopping 54 points against the Bills, and then Rivers threw for well over 400 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Cowboys in Dallas on Thanksgiving night.
The Chargers now find themselves one game back from a wilting but division-leading Chiefs team that appeared to be the most dominant force in the AFC through the first 6 weeks of the season. The Chiefs have lost 4 of their last 5 games, and the Chargers could easily overtake them as division leader in the AFC West as every team left on their schedule is quite beatable. If that happens, it's quite possible that the Ravens could find themselves faced with a road trip to California in the first round of the playoffs. This all only goes to show that one shouldn't get too high or low about a team's early struggles in an NFL season. The regular season is 4 months long and injuries and adjustments to opponents' schemes can change the landscape of competition profoundly over only a handful of weeks.
The Ravens, unlike the Chargers, don't have a great opportunity to overtake their most hated rivals, the Steelers, for the lead in their division, but, like the Chargers, they're starting to heat up at the right time. Suggs and company have pitched two shutouts in their last 3 games, and they have the highest margin of victory of any team in the NFL as they've outscored opponents 137-27 in their five wins. The Ravens have struggled against many of the better teams in the league, but they've shown unquestionably that they can dominate mediocre and bad teams. That's quite convenient as the Texans happen to be a bad team since the season-ending injury to Deshaun Watson's knee.
Just how bad ARE the Texans? Well they lost 4 of their last 6 games, but their only win over the last month came against a Cardinals team that has essentially lost all hope without Carson Palmer. The Texans also lost the most dominant defensive player in the league when J.J. Watt went down with a season ending injury. The Texans will be without two starting offensive linemen on Monday night, and wide receiver Will Fuller has been ruled out as well. DeAndre Hopskins is the only true offensive weapon the Texans have left, and he has even been dealing with a foot injury of his own though he is expected to play on Monday night.
There was a bit of a scare earlier this week that the Ravens would be missing two of their own starting offensive linemen with Ronnie Stanley still in concussion protocol and Austin Howard held out of practice with a reported knee injury. Both men, however, returned to practice by Friday on a full participant level, and that's relieving considering the fact that a ferocious pass rusher will soon take the field with his sights on Joe Flacco.
Jadeveon Clowney is the only remaining pass rusher left this season of the Watt-Mercilus-Clowney trio. He, nevertheless, has found a way to generate a consistent pass rush and be disruptive to opposing offenses by himself. With 8 sacks on the year, Clowney has more than any Ravens pass rusher as Terrell Suggs leads Baltimore with 7.5. Teams have trouble keying in on the young, dynamic playmaker because the Texans line him up all over the defensive front seven. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Texans have Clowney pick on the Ravens' comparatively weak guards considering the strength and track record of the Baltimore tackles and center this season. Clowney is not, however, the best pass rusher the Ravens have faced this season, and his location simply needs to be identified prior to the snap so he can be properly accounted for and double-teamed.
Another Texans player that will likely require a double team all night is DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins is easily one of the top 3 receivers in the league this season, and despite not having a legitimate starting quarterback to deliver him the ball, he has still managed to amass 879 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns. Hopkins' production hasn't waned since Deshaun Watson went down for the season, but that might change profoundly this week as the Texans #2 receiver and best deep threat with 19.2 yards per catch, Will Fuller, will not play. Fuller caught 7 touchdown passes in 2017 which is 30% of the Texans' total 23 receiving touchdowns. The speedy Notre Dame product ran a 4.32 official NFL combine 40 yard dash in 2016, and his absence will allow the Ravens to zero in on Hopkins all game.
There are two things the Texans have done unquestionably well this season: running the football and stopping the run. Houston ranks 6th in the league in rushing yards per game, and rank 7th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game. That doesn't mean that it's impossible to run the football on them, and it certainly doesn't mean that their running game can't be stopped, but I don't expect a monstrous day on the ground for Alex Collins and company. The Texans will likely put forth the bulk of their defensive efforts to stacking the box and stopping the Ravens rushing attack. This, they likely hope, will force Flacco to throw the football in a year where he has struggled mightily to do so. The issue with that strategy is that the Texans rank 23rd in the league in passing yards allowed, and they rank dead last in passing touchdowns allowed. If there was ever a day where Ravens wide receivers, tight ends, and pass-catching running backs would feast on an opposing pass defense, it would be Monday night.
The Ravens offense may still struggle early to find a rhythm and pull away from the Texans until the second half, but I fully expect the Ravens defense to hold the Texans nearly scoreless, if not entirely scoreless. With a full staff, this Texans team is dangerous, but this roster is a shell of its former self with over half of its top playmakers on injured reserve. If Baltimore can't put this wounded animal down in primetime on Monday night, they're going to struggle hard the following week against a much better Detroit Lions squad. Let's just consider this week to be phase one of Operation Beat-the-Teams-They're-Supposed-to-Beat. Ok, let's take a look at this week's picks!
WEEK 12 NFL PICKS
BUCCANEERS AT FALCONS- The Buccanners' road record has been an absolutely abysmal 1-4 this season, and the Falcons are heating up at the right time winning 3 of their last 4 games including a major upset of the Seahawks in Seattle last week. This is a divisional game, however, so it will be closer than many expect. FALCONS 31-28
BROWNS AT BENGALS- The Bengals will keep fairly dim playoff hopes alive with a win over the winless Browns this week. BENGALS 24-14
TITANS AT COLTS- The Colts have still fought hard despite being basically eliminated from playoff contention for quite some time. The Titans handled the Colts 36-22 in Nashville, and I expect a similar performance this week as Marcus Mariota isn't hobbled the way he was the first time these two teams faced one another. TITANS 33-17
BILLS AT CHIEFS- This is an interesting matchup because it features two teams that looked dominant earlier this season, but have fallen off as of late and desperately need a win. The Chiefs have lost 4 of their last 5 games, and the Bills have lost their last 3 straight. Tyrod Taylor will start, but he will be without the recently acquired target Kelvin Benjamin. The Bills defense has been so insanely poor as of late that I have to give the edge to the Chiefs at home. The Bills defense has, in fact, allowed an average of 45 points per game over the last 3 weeks. CHIEFS 34-23
DOLPHINS AT PATRIOTS- It was only a matter of time before Brandin Cooks became familiarize with the Patriots offensive system and began to flourish. He has more than made up for Julian Edelman's absence with 786 receiving yards thus far this season. The Dolphins have sadly lost their last 4 games, and with two upcoming games against the Patriots their playoff chances are slim to none. The question going forward will be whether they draft a QB or stick with a recovered Tannehill for the foreseeable future. PATRIOTS 38-20
PANTHERS AT JETS- The Jets have lost 4 of their last 5 games and the Panthers are 7-3. The Panthers have lost a letdown game or two this season, but it's difficult to imagine them dropping one to this team. PANTHERS 24-17
BEARS AT EAGLES- The Eagles are the most complete team in the NFL. EAGLES 35-21
SEAHAWKS AT 49ERS- These teams are usually competitive when playing one another, but it's difficult to believe the 49ers will be able to contain Russell Wilson. SEAHAWKS 28-24
BRONCOS AT RAIDERS- This is a matchup of two of the best teams from the previous couple of seasons...and they both now suck. The edge has to go to the Raiders who have at least won 2 of their last 4 games. RAIDERS 30-23
SAINTS AT RAMS- This is easily the best, most intriguing matchup of the week. Both the Rams and Saints have been strong for months now. The Rams' only losses have come against the Seahawks when the Seahawk's defense still had its biggest pieces and then last week against a defensively ferocious Vikings. The Saints haven't been pitted against an elite defense in quite some time, and the Rams rank 7th in points allowed this season. Considering how close the Redskins came last week to beating the Saints in New Orleans, I have to believe the Rams will be strong enough to knock them off in Los Angeles on Sunday. RAMS 31-28
JAGUARS AT CARDINALS- Jalen Ramsey WILL be playing, and the Cardinals will be losing. JAGUARS 37-13
PACKERS AT STEELERS- This is the weakest Packers team I've ever known. The Steelers defense is top 3 in the league and will easily stifle this decapitated group from Green Bay. STEELERS 42-10
TEXANS AT RAVENS- The Texans are down to essentially one offensive weapon, and they're about to go against the second rated secondary in the league. The Ravens shouldn't allow Tom Savage to breathe, and they'll likely pick him off as he tries to force the ball to DeAndre Hopkins in double and triple coverage. The Texans will do whatever they can to stop the Ravens rushing attack, and that means we'll see what Joe Flacco can do. I have a feeling Danny Woodhead will catch at least 5-6 passes and allow Joe to get rid of the ball quick enough to neutralize pressure. If the Ravens offense can't open up through the air against this team, they're going to have a hard time against any playoff team they might face assuming they make it that far. RAVENS 24-3
IT'S BLACKOUT TIME AT THE BANK ON MONDAY NIGHT! TIME FOR THE RAVENS DEFENSE TO FEAST! I HOPE EVERYONE HAD A WONDERFUL THANKSGIVING!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
The Detroit Lions will play the Ravens in Week 13, and if Thanksgiving's first game was any indication, that won't be an easy task. It certainly seemed at times as though the Vikings dominated the Lions on Thursday, but Detroit finished only one touchdown behind. One shouldn't glean too much from a divisional game considering they're often competitive despite a disparity in the overall strength of the teams playing, but the Lions are no sort of pushovers. Not only will the Lions be coming off of nearly a week and a half of rest, but they also boast a 4-1 road record on the season, and the Ravens haven't been invincible at home in years.
Beating the Lions could very well be a tough task, but it also might not be necessary considering the rest of the Ravens remaining schedule. It will likely take only 9 wins to clinch a wildcard spot, and the other teams within striking distance have much tougher upcoming opponents. One team thought to be totally out of the running for a playoff spot is the Chargers. Philip Rivers and company lost 6 of their first 9 games, but they have now won 5 of their last 7 to improve to 5-6 on the season. What has been even more impressive is just how explosive the Chargers offense has been for the past two weeks. They scored a whopping 54 points against the Bills, and then Rivers threw for well over 400 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Cowboys in Dallas on Thanksgiving night.
The Chargers now find themselves one game back from a wilting but division-leading Chiefs team that appeared to be the most dominant force in the AFC through the first 6 weeks of the season. The Chiefs have lost 4 of their last 5 games, and the Chargers could easily overtake them as division leader in the AFC West as every team left on their schedule is quite beatable. If that happens, it's quite possible that the Ravens could find themselves faced with a road trip to California in the first round of the playoffs. This all only goes to show that one shouldn't get too high or low about a team's early struggles in an NFL season. The regular season is 4 months long and injuries and adjustments to opponents' schemes can change the landscape of competition profoundly over only a handful of weeks.
The Ravens, unlike the Chargers, don't have a great opportunity to overtake their most hated rivals, the Steelers, for the lead in their division, but, like the Chargers, they're starting to heat up at the right time. Suggs and company have pitched two shutouts in their last 3 games, and they have the highest margin of victory of any team in the NFL as they've outscored opponents 137-27 in their five wins. The Ravens have struggled against many of the better teams in the league, but they've shown unquestionably that they can dominate mediocre and bad teams. That's quite convenient as the Texans happen to be a bad team since the season-ending injury to Deshaun Watson's knee.
Just how bad ARE the Texans? Well they lost 4 of their last 6 games, but their only win over the last month came against a Cardinals team that has essentially lost all hope without Carson Palmer. The Texans also lost the most dominant defensive player in the league when J.J. Watt went down with a season ending injury. The Texans will be without two starting offensive linemen on Monday night, and wide receiver Will Fuller has been ruled out as well. DeAndre Hopskins is the only true offensive weapon the Texans have left, and he has even been dealing with a foot injury of his own though he is expected to play on Monday night.
There was a bit of a scare earlier this week that the Ravens would be missing two of their own starting offensive linemen with Ronnie Stanley still in concussion protocol and Austin Howard held out of practice with a reported knee injury. Both men, however, returned to practice by Friday on a full participant level, and that's relieving considering the fact that a ferocious pass rusher will soon take the field with his sights on Joe Flacco.
Jadeveon Clowney is the only remaining pass rusher left this season of the Watt-Mercilus-Clowney trio. He, nevertheless, has found a way to generate a consistent pass rush and be disruptive to opposing offenses by himself. With 8 sacks on the year, Clowney has more than any Ravens pass rusher as Terrell Suggs leads Baltimore with 7.5. Teams have trouble keying in on the young, dynamic playmaker because the Texans line him up all over the defensive front seven. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Texans have Clowney pick on the Ravens' comparatively weak guards considering the strength and track record of the Baltimore tackles and center this season. Clowney is not, however, the best pass rusher the Ravens have faced this season, and his location simply needs to be identified prior to the snap so he can be properly accounted for and double-teamed.
Another Texans player that will likely require a double team all night is DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins is easily one of the top 3 receivers in the league this season, and despite not having a legitimate starting quarterback to deliver him the ball, he has still managed to amass 879 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns. Hopkins' production hasn't waned since Deshaun Watson went down for the season, but that might change profoundly this week as the Texans #2 receiver and best deep threat with 19.2 yards per catch, Will Fuller, will not play. Fuller caught 7 touchdown passes in 2017 which is 30% of the Texans' total 23 receiving touchdowns. The speedy Notre Dame product ran a 4.32 official NFL combine 40 yard dash in 2016, and his absence will allow the Ravens to zero in on Hopkins all game.
There are two things the Texans have done unquestionably well this season: running the football and stopping the run. Houston ranks 6th in the league in rushing yards per game, and rank 7th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game. That doesn't mean that it's impossible to run the football on them, and it certainly doesn't mean that their running game can't be stopped, but I don't expect a monstrous day on the ground for Alex Collins and company. The Texans will likely put forth the bulk of their defensive efforts to stacking the box and stopping the Ravens rushing attack. This, they likely hope, will force Flacco to throw the football in a year where he has struggled mightily to do so. The issue with that strategy is that the Texans rank 23rd in the league in passing yards allowed, and they rank dead last in passing touchdowns allowed. If there was ever a day where Ravens wide receivers, tight ends, and pass-catching running backs would feast on an opposing pass defense, it would be Monday night.
The Ravens offense may still struggle early to find a rhythm and pull away from the Texans until the second half, but I fully expect the Ravens defense to hold the Texans nearly scoreless, if not entirely scoreless. With a full staff, this Texans team is dangerous, but this roster is a shell of its former self with over half of its top playmakers on injured reserve. If Baltimore can't put this wounded animal down in primetime on Monday night, they're going to struggle hard the following week against a much better Detroit Lions squad. Let's just consider this week to be phase one of Operation Beat-the-Teams-They're-Supposed-to-Beat. Ok, let's take a look at this week's picks!
WEEK 12 NFL PICKS
BUCCANEERS AT FALCONS- The Buccanners' road record has been an absolutely abysmal 1-4 this season, and the Falcons are heating up at the right time winning 3 of their last 4 games including a major upset of the Seahawks in Seattle last week. This is a divisional game, however, so it will be closer than many expect. FALCONS 31-28
BROWNS AT BENGALS- The Bengals will keep fairly dim playoff hopes alive with a win over the winless Browns this week. BENGALS 24-14
TITANS AT COLTS- The Colts have still fought hard despite being basically eliminated from playoff contention for quite some time. The Titans handled the Colts 36-22 in Nashville, and I expect a similar performance this week as Marcus Mariota isn't hobbled the way he was the first time these two teams faced one another. TITANS 33-17
BILLS AT CHIEFS- This is an interesting matchup because it features two teams that looked dominant earlier this season, but have fallen off as of late and desperately need a win. The Chiefs have lost 4 of their last 5 games, and the Bills have lost their last 3 straight. Tyrod Taylor will start, but he will be without the recently acquired target Kelvin Benjamin. The Bills defense has been so insanely poor as of late that I have to give the edge to the Chiefs at home. The Bills defense has, in fact, allowed an average of 45 points per game over the last 3 weeks. CHIEFS 34-23
DOLPHINS AT PATRIOTS- It was only a matter of time before Brandin Cooks became familiarize with the Patriots offensive system and began to flourish. He has more than made up for Julian Edelman's absence with 786 receiving yards thus far this season. The Dolphins have sadly lost their last 4 games, and with two upcoming games against the Patriots their playoff chances are slim to none. The question going forward will be whether they draft a QB or stick with a recovered Tannehill for the foreseeable future. PATRIOTS 38-20
PANTHERS AT JETS- The Jets have lost 4 of their last 5 games and the Panthers are 7-3. The Panthers have lost a letdown game or two this season, but it's difficult to imagine them dropping one to this team. PANTHERS 24-17
BEARS AT EAGLES- The Eagles are the most complete team in the NFL. EAGLES 35-21
SEAHAWKS AT 49ERS- These teams are usually competitive when playing one another, but it's difficult to believe the 49ers will be able to contain Russell Wilson. SEAHAWKS 28-24
BRONCOS AT RAIDERS- This is a matchup of two of the best teams from the previous couple of seasons...and they both now suck. The edge has to go to the Raiders who have at least won 2 of their last 4 games. RAIDERS 30-23
SAINTS AT RAMS- This is easily the best, most intriguing matchup of the week. Both the Rams and Saints have been strong for months now. The Rams' only losses have come against the Seahawks when the Seahawk's defense still had its biggest pieces and then last week against a defensively ferocious Vikings. The Saints haven't been pitted against an elite defense in quite some time, and the Rams rank 7th in points allowed this season. Considering how close the Redskins came last week to beating the Saints in New Orleans, I have to believe the Rams will be strong enough to knock them off in Los Angeles on Sunday. RAMS 31-28
JAGUARS AT CARDINALS- Jalen Ramsey WILL be playing, and the Cardinals will be losing. JAGUARS 37-13
PACKERS AT STEELERS- This is the weakest Packers team I've ever known. The Steelers defense is top 3 in the league and will easily stifle this decapitated group from Green Bay. STEELERS 42-10
TEXANS AT RAVENS- The Texans are down to essentially one offensive weapon, and they're about to go against the second rated secondary in the league. The Ravens shouldn't allow Tom Savage to breathe, and they'll likely pick him off as he tries to force the ball to DeAndre Hopkins in double and triple coverage. The Texans will do whatever they can to stop the Ravens rushing attack, and that means we'll see what Joe Flacco can do. I have a feeling Danny Woodhead will catch at least 5-6 passes and allow Joe to get rid of the ball quick enough to neutralize pressure. If the Ravens offense can't open up through the air against this team, they're going to have a hard time against any playoff team they might face assuming they make it that far. RAVENS 24-3
IT'S BLACKOUT TIME AT THE BANK ON MONDAY NIGHT! TIME FOR THE RAVENS DEFENSE TO FEAST! I HOPE EVERYONE HAD A WONDERFUL THANKSGIVING!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Thursday, November 23, 2017
THANKSGIVING NFL PREDICTIONS
There is only one quality football team playing in today's games if we're going by regular season record. The Vikings have endured a string of injuries and somehow managed to emerge battle-tested with an 8-2 record and currently enjoying a 6 game winning streak. All of the other teams have had enough ups and downs to make their respective fan bases fairly doubtful about the prospects of a serious playoff run. Despite that fact, there is still enough football left for a number of these teams to make a run at a wildcard spot, and every game is, thus, absolutely relevant today. With that, let's get into today's predictions!
VIKINGS AT LIONS- These are easily the best two teams playing today, and they happen to be divisional rivals. The Lions did have a three game losing streak that ended a month ago, but they're currently on a 3 game winning streak with their most recent win over another division rival in the Chicago Bears. The Lions already beat the Vikings earlier this season, but they did so as the Lions were right in the thick of a rash of injuries. It's difficult to imagine this game will be any sort of blowout, but the way the Vikings have played as of late, it's difficult to imagine the Lions repeating their performance from earlier this season. The Lions' most recent wins have come against some softball teams such as the currently crippled packers and the perpetually inept Browns. The Vikings, on the other hand, just crushed the Rams... VIKINGS 31-17
CHARGERS AT COWBOYS- The Cowboys have scored a total of 14 points in their last two games. It turns out Ezekiel Elliot's availability is the difference between soundly beating the Chiefs and getting crushed by the Eagles and Falcons. The Chargers haven't won all that many games, but they're rounding into decent form, and Philip Rivers has some nice weapons at his disposal. Let's also not forget that the Chargers put up 54 points on the Bills last week...54. CHARGERS 28-21
GIANTS AT REDSKINS- The Giants are a 2-win team. Kudos to them for beating the Chiefs in a defensive battle, but they're still a worse team than the Redskins. I'm still at a loss as to how the Skins lost to the Saints last week when they had a 15 point lead with 3 minutes left in the 4th quarter, but they're not going up against the Saints this week. This is a time for Washington to take its frustrations out on a Giants team whose number they typically have anyway. REDSKINS 24-14
As for our beloved Ravens, Monday presents a nice opportunity to both beat up on a backup quarterback and possibly record yet another shutout to gain defensive momentum heading into more competitive games against the Lions and eventually the Steelers. Nine games will likely clinch a playoff berth, so the Ravens simply need to beat the teams they're SUPPOSED to beat remaining on the schedule to get to nine. That means the Ravens need to beat the Texans, Colts, Browns, and Bengals. If, however, Baltimore finds a way to beat either the Lions or Steelers and have clinched a wildcard berth going into the final week of the regular season, it would behoove them to sit their starters against the Bengals the way they did last time they won a Super Bowl. This is truly getting interesting!
HAPPY THANKSGIVING, EVERYONE!
AND AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
VIKINGS AT LIONS- These are easily the best two teams playing today, and they happen to be divisional rivals. The Lions did have a three game losing streak that ended a month ago, but they're currently on a 3 game winning streak with their most recent win over another division rival in the Chicago Bears. The Lions already beat the Vikings earlier this season, but they did so as the Lions were right in the thick of a rash of injuries. It's difficult to imagine this game will be any sort of blowout, but the way the Vikings have played as of late, it's difficult to imagine the Lions repeating their performance from earlier this season. The Lions' most recent wins have come against some softball teams such as the currently crippled packers and the perpetually inept Browns. The Vikings, on the other hand, just crushed the Rams... VIKINGS 31-17
CHARGERS AT COWBOYS- The Cowboys have scored a total of 14 points in their last two games. It turns out Ezekiel Elliot's availability is the difference between soundly beating the Chiefs and getting crushed by the Eagles and Falcons. The Chargers haven't won all that many games, but they're rounding into decent form, and Philip Rivers has some nice weapons at his disposal. Let's also not forget that the Chargers put up 54 points on the Bills last week...54. CHARGERS 28-21
GIANTS AT REDSKINS- The Giants are a 2-win team. Kudos to them for beating the Chiefs in a defensive battle, but they're still a worse team than the Redskins. I'm still at a loss as to how the Skins lost to the Saints last week when they had a 15 point lead with 3 minutes left in the 4th quarter, but they're not going up against the Saints this week. This is a time for Washington to take its frustrations out on a Giants team whose number they typically have anyway. REDSKINS 24-14
As for our beloved Ravens, Monday presents a nice opportunity to both beat up on a backup quarterback and possibly record yet another shutout to gain defensive momentum heading into more competitive games against the Lions and eventually the Steelers. Nine games will likely clinch a playoff berth, so the Ravens simply need to beat the teams they're SUPPOSED to beat remaining on the schedule to get to nine. That means the Ravens need to beat the Texans, Colts, Browns, and Bengals. If, however, Baltimore finds a way to beat either the Lions or Steelers and have clinched a wildcard berth going into the final week of the regular season, it would behoove them to sit their starters against the Bengals the way they did last time they won a Super Bowl. This is truly getting interesting!
HAPPY THANKSGIVING, EVERYONE!
AND AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, November 19, 2017
WEEK 11 NFL PREDICTIONS
The Green Bay Packers, despite their win over the Chicago Bears last weekend, are horribly short-staffed going into their home game against the Baltimore Ravens. Aaron Rodgers' absence alone totally changes the identity and power of the team, and it certainly doesn't help that the Pack will be missing starting offensive linemen and both of their top running backs as well. The Ravens are coming off of a much needed bye week and are reportedly healthier than they've been collectively all season--healthier, that is, except one of their most critical offensive pieces.
The Ravens went through a 4 game losing streak during the 2016 season that directly corresponded with the timing of Ronnie Stanley's foot injury. The elite left tackle has performed at a Pro Bowl level this season, and it's difficult to assume his absence won't have just as profound an impact this season, if not more. Stanley exited the Ravens-Titans game late in the 4th quarter with what turned out to be a concussion. Despite his presence at practice all week, the former 6th overall pick will almost certainly not play in Green Bay on Sunday as his status was listed as doubtful. That reportedly will mean the Ravens will slide James Hurst to left tackle and plug in a backup at left guard. Many of you might remember James Hurst from such magical moments as getting bull-rushed into Joe Flacco's knee causing a season-ending ACL tear. I understand that Hurst has bulked up and improved overall this season, but it's difficult to imagine he'll replace a top 5 left tackle in the league on short notice.
If the Ravens are to win on the road this week, they're going to have to utilize their weapons properly for the first time this season. That means connecting with Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace on intermediate and deep routes, feeding Alex Collins the football 17-20 times, involving Nick Boyle and Ben Watson in the passing attack, and unleashing Danny Woodhead as a pass-catching back/slot receiver. Woodhead, if he can stay healthy, might just be the key to the Ravens' offensive woes. He gets open fast, catches nearly everything thrown his way, and makes defenders miss for fantastic yards after the catch. Woodhead's ability to get open almost immediately will help Flacco to get the ball out of his hands quickly and mitigate potential damage caused by Ronnie Stanley's absence.
Green Bay's defense isn't exactly daunting with a 22nd ranking in average yards allowed per game. The Ravens, by contrast, boast the NFL's 5 ranked defense, and they've put up some absolutely suffocating performances this season. It's tough to imagine that a rested Ravens defense wouldn't absolutely feast on a backup quarterback who won't enjoy the company of either of his top two running backs or his starting left tackle, but the defense can only do so much. In games where the offense can't sustain and finish drives, the Ravens defense finds itself on the field for far too much time, and ultimately opposing teams find ways to put up enough points to edge Baltimore. The Bears and Titans, for example, beat the Ravens because Baltimore simply couldn't make anything happen offensively in the first half of either game.
Poor competition from most of the rest of the AFC has meant that the Ravens are only one spot out of the second wildcard slot despite having an unimpressive 4-5 record. The sad thing is that the Ravens could easily be 6-3 right now if they had simply kicked one more field goal in their games against the Bears and Titans, but they can't rewrite the past. Instead, this team can show that it's good enough to make second half adjustments and perform every week the way it did against the Bengals, Browns, Raiders, and Dolphins. Fortunately for the Ravens, they're not nearly the only team suffering from catastrophic losses this season. The Colts, Texans, and Packers have all lost their dynamic starting quarterbacks to season-ending injuries, and all three teams have done quite a bit of losing for weeks. Baltimore is also staring down games against such non-competitive teams as the Browns and Bengals. The Lions and Steelers present far greater challenges for Joe and the boys, but it may not be necessary to beat either team to secure a wildcard playoff berth. I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility for the Ravens to beat the Lions in Baltimore since dome teams often struggle in cold outdoor environments such as Baltimore in December, but they simply must take care of business against the comparatively weak remaining teams to reach 9 wins and a likely playoff spot.
You might be asking why it is that only 9 games could very well land the Ravens a place in the post-season. Both the Titans and Jaguars have 6 wins already. Jacksonville is 6-3, and Tennessee is 6-4. Both teams own head to head wins against the Ravens, and both teams have favorable enough remaining schedules to easily win 9-10 games. The Jaguars have games remaining against such weak opponents as the Browns, Colts, 49ers, Cardinals, and Texans. The thing is that the Jaguars would only need 9 wins to beat out the Ravens for a wildcard spot because they own a head-to-head victory from Week 3. The Titans also own a tie-breaker over the Ravens with a head-to-head victory, and they, like the Jaguars, have remaining games against the Colts, Texans, Cardinals, and 49ers. I would estimate that the odds are incredibly high that both 6-win teams will earn a playoff spot, but the question is which will win the AFC South division and which will likely be relegated to the 5th playoff spot. Either way the Ravens will likely be vying for the 6th and final playoff spot, and the team challenging them for it is the Buffalo Bills...who just benched their starting quarterback for a backup.
Tyrod Taylor hasn't looked particularly impressive as of late as the Bills have lost their last two games by rather embarrassing margins to the Jets and Saints. To make matters worse, Taylor has been benched in favor of his backup. The Bills obviously hope that switching to a different passer will spark some offense for the first time in weeks, but a large part of Buffalo's ability to move the ball is due to Tyrod Taylor's mobility and ability to run and extend plays. The Chargers aren't likely going to the playoffs, but they have some impressive pass rushers such as Joey Bosa, and it's always difficult to go all the way across the country--especially when this with their backup quarterback's limited level of experience. It doesn't get a whole lot easier for the Bills as they then travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs. The Bills then have two games remaining against the Patriots and two more games against their divisional rival Dolphins. The Bills do have one game remaining against an opponent whose starting quarterback will not be back this season, but beyond that, it's difficult to see them winning more than 2 of their remaining games. Let's assume that the Chargers and Chiefs beat Buffalo, and then the Patriots sweep them while the Dolphins split with them. Hell, even if the Bills sweep the Dolphins and beat up on the Colts, they'll only finish the season with 8 wins. If the Bills continue to stick with a backup quarterback, I believe they'll finish with only 7 wins.
There actually is a significant chance that, because the of the low level of competition in the AFC for the wildcard spot, an 8-8 team might just make it in. Let's hope the Ravens cover their bases with 9+ total wins, but anyway they can get into the playoffs is just fine with me. Now there's just the matter of beating the teams they should beat; that's often easier said than done in the NFL.
WEEK 11 PICKS
LIONS AT BEARS- It's difficult to know which Bears team will show up on Sunday, but the Lions have done quite well on the road with a 3-1 record in games outside of Detroit. The Bears are 3-6 will a few surprise wins, but they're also only 2-3 at home. LIONS 24-20
JAGUARS AT BROWNS- Guess who's probably in line for a first overall piiiiiiick. That's right, the worst team in the history of time! JAGUARS 34-13
BUCCANEERS AT DOLPHINS- The Dolphins should be able to manage a win over the Bucs with Jameis Winston sitting out because of a shoulder injury. Certainly doesn't help that Rey Maualuga was just cut because of a misdemeanor assault charge a few days ago, but Miami should be able to win this. DOLPHINS 21-17
RAMS AT VIKINGS- This is the best matchup of the week with two 7-2 teams. The Rams are on a 4 game winning streak, and they've won 6 of their last 7. The Vikings have won 6 of THEIR last 7 games despite the loss of their talented young RB, Dalvin Cook, earlier this season. The Rams are 4-0 on the road, and the Vikings are 4-1 at home. This is such a close matchup that the Vikings are only favored by 1.5 points. It's difficult, however, for me to see the Vikings, who will be without a starting defensive end and safety, stopping a rather ferocious Rams offense that has averaged 32.85 points per game over the last 7 contests and even managed to score 27 against the vaunted Jaguars D. The Rams are the healthier, more complete team going into this. RAMS 30-24
REDSKINS AT SAINTS- The Saints might actually be the most dangerous team in the league. They haven't lost a game since Week 2. Good luck, Redskins. SAINTS 38-21
CHIEFS AT GIANTS- The Chiefs are good at football...the Giants? Not so much. CHIEFS 28-14
CARDINALS AT TEXANS- The Cardinals will be starting Blaine Gabbert at QB today. It'll be nice for the Texans to get a rare win without Deshaun Watson. TEXANS 27-23
BILLS AT CHARGERS- The Chargers are a decent team that has been the victim of one of the toughest schedules in the NFL up to this point. The Bills will be starting a backup QB after a cross country flight. CHARGERS 31-17
BENGALS AT BRONCOS- Too many people thought of the Bengals as being incredibly talented going into the last two seasons just because their minds immediately think of A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert. What made the Bengals so talented several years ago was the combination of Green, Eifert, Sanu, and Marvin Jones. Green by himself simply isn't enough to take over a game. If the Bengals lose this game today, their chance at a playoff berth is nearly zero. They would be wise to pack it in and play for a top 5 draft pick. The Bengals have won only a single game on the road this season despite hanging tough against some decent opponents. The Broncos have done just as poorly, but they'll have homefield advantage today. The Broncos have lost 5 straight games, but they're 3-2 at home and the Bengals are, as mentioned earlier, 1-4 on the road. BRONCOS 24-21
PATRIOTS AT RAIDERS- The Raiders don't have nearly enough in the way of defense to stop Tom Brady...who happens to be the league's leader in passing yards right now. PATRIOTS 34-21
EAGLES AT COWBOYS- The Eagles appear to be the best, most complete team in the league. The Cowboys won't have Ezekiel Elliot for the next 6 games. EAGLES 33-23
FALCONS AT SEAHAWKS- The Falcons haven't been great this season, but they've won 2 of their last 3 games and will be playing a Seahawks secondary without most of its Legion of Boom. Russell Wilson, however, is having a career year from an offensive standpoint. One might say that the Seahawks won't have the defense to stop the Falcons, but I don't believe the Falcons have the defense to stop the Seahawks. SEAHAWKS 28-21
RAVENS AT PACKERS- The prospect of playing in Green Bay in mid November without Ronnie Stanley scares the bejesus out of me, but the Packers are simply too offensively banged up to challenge this Ravens secondary. The fact that the Packers won't have much to use in the running game will mean that Baltimore will be able to pin their ears back and get after a fairly talented, but inexperienced rookie quarterback. The Ravens haven't won many games, but when they've beaten teams this year, they've absolutely destroyed them. RAVENS 31-13
IF THE RAVENS ARE GOING TO MAKE A RUN AT THE PLAYOFFS, THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A WEAK SECOND HALF SCHEDULE AND BEAT THE WOUNDED TEAMS THAT THEY'RE SUPPOSED TO BEAT. IF THEY CAN'T DO THAT TODAY, THEY'RE NOT OFFICIALLY ELIMINATED FROM CONTENTION, BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE THEY CAN WIN MUCH GOING FORWARD. THIS IS NEARLY AS HEALTHY AND RESTED AS THEY'VE BEEN, AND THEY'RE FACING ARGUABLY THE MOST BROKEN TEAM IN THE LEAGUE.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
The Ravens went through a 4 game losing streak during the 2016 season that directly corresponded with the timing of Ronnie Stanley's foot injury. The elite left tackle has performed at a Pro Bowl level this season, and it's difficult to assume his absence won't have just as profound an impact this season, if not more. Stanley exited the Ravens-Titans game late in the 4th quarter with what turned out to be a concussion. Despite his presence at practice all week, the former 6th overall pick will almost certainly not play in Green Bay on Sunday as his status was listed as doubtful. That reportedly will mean the Ravens will slide James Hurst to left tackle and plug in a backup at left guard. Many of you might remember James Hurst from such magical moments as getting bull-rushed into Joe Flacco's knee causing a season-ending ACL tear. I understand that Hurst has bulked up and improved overall this season, but it's difficult to imagine he'll replace a top 5 left tackle in the league on short notice.
If the Ravens are to win on the road this week, they're going to have to utilize their weapons properly for the first time this season. That means connecting with Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace on intermediate and deep routes, feeding Alex Collins the football 17-20 times, involving Nick Boyle and Ben Watson in the passing attack, and unleashing Danny Woodhead as a pass-catching back/slot receiver. Woodhead, if he can stay healthy, might just be the key to the Ravens' offensive woes. He gets open fast, catches nearly everything thrown his way, and makes defenders miss for fantastic yards after the catch. Woodhead's ability to get open almost immediately will help Flacco to get the ball out of his hands quickly and mitigate potential damage caused by Ronnie Stanley's absence.
Green Bay's defense isn't exactly daunting with a 22nd ranking in average yards allowed per game. The Ravens, by contrast, boast the NFL's 5 ranked defense, and they've put up some absolutely suffocating performances this season. It's tough to imagine that a rested Ravens defense wouldn't absolutely feast on a backup quarterback who won't enjoy the company of either of his top two running backs or his starting left tackle, but the defense can only do so much. In games where the offense can't sustain and finish drives, the Ravens defense finds itself on the field for far too much time, and ultimately opposing teams find ways to put up enough points to edge Baltimore. The Bears and Titans, for example, beat the Ravens because Baltimore simply couldn't make anything happen offensively in the first half of either game.
Poor competition from most of the rest of the AFC has meant that the Ravens are only one spot out of the second wildcard slot despite having an unimpressive 4-5 record. The sad thing is that the Ravens could easily be 6-3 right now if they had simply kicked one more field goal in their games against the Bears and Titans, but they can't rewrite the past. Instead, this team can show that it's good enough to make second half adjustments and perform every week the way it did against the Bengals, Browns, Raiders, and Dolphins. Fortunately for the Ravens, they're not nearly the only team suffering from catastrophic losses this season. The Colts, Texans, and Packers have all lost their dynamic starting quarterbacks to season-ending injuries, and all three teams have done quite a bit of losing for weeks. Baltimore is also staring down games against such non-competitive teams as the Browns and Bengals. The Lions and Steelers present far greater challenges for Joe and the boys, but it may not be necessary to beat either team to secure a wildcard playoff berth. I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility for the Ravens to beat the Lions in Baltimore since dome teams often struggle in cold outdoor environments such as Baltimore in December, but they simply must take care of business against the comparatively weak remaining teams to reach 9 wins and a likely playoff spot.
You might be asking why it is that only 9 games could very well land the Ravens a place in the post-season. Both the Titans and Jaguars have 6 wins already. Jacksonville is 6-3, and Tennessee is 6-4. Both teams own head to head wins against the Ravens, and both teams have favorable enough remaining schedules to easily win 9-10 games. The Jaguars have games remaining against such weak opponents as the Browns, Colts, 49ers, Cardinals, and Texans. The thing is that the Jaguars would only need 9 wins to beat out the Ravens for a wildcard spot because they own a head-to-head victory from Week 3. The Titans also own a tie-breaker over the Ravens with a head-to-head victory, and they, like the Jaguars, have remaining games against the Colts, Texans, Cardinals, and 49ers. I would estimate that the odds are incredibly high that both 6-win teams will earn a playoff spot, but the question is which will win the AFC South division and which will likely be relegated to the 5th playoff spot. Either way the Ravens will likely be vying for the 6th and final playoff spot, and the team challenging them for it is the Buffalo Bills...who just benched their starting quarterback for a backup.
Tyrod Taylor hasn't looked particularly impressive as of late as the Bills have lost their last two games by rather embarrassing margins to the Jets and Saints. To make matters worse, Taylor has been benched in favor of his backup. The Bills obviously hope that switching to a different passer will spark some offense for the first time in weeks, but a large part of Buffalo's ability to move the ball is due to Tyrod Taylor's mobility and ability to run and extend plays. The Chargers aren't likely going to the playoffs, but they have some impressive pass rushers such as Joey Bosa, and it's always difficult to go all the way across the country--especially when this with their backup quarterback's limited level of experience. It doesn't get a whole lot easier for the Bills as they then travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs. The Bills then have two games remaining against the Patriots and two more games against their divisional rival Dolphins. The Bills do have one game remaining against an opponent whose starting quarterback will not be back this season, but beyond that, it's difficult to see them winning more than 2 of their remaining games. Let's assume that the Chargers and Chiefs beat Buffalo, and then the Patriots sweep them while the Dolphins split with them. Hell, even if the Bills sweep the Dolphins and beat up on the Colts, they'll only finish the season with 8 wins. If the Bills continue to stick with a backup quarterback, I believe they'll finish with only 7 wins.
There actually is a significant chance that, because the of the low level of competition in the AFC for the wildcard spot, an 8-8 team might just make it in. Let's hope the Ravens cover their bases with 9+ total wins, but anyway they can get into the playoffs is just fine with me. Now there's just the matter of beating the teams they should beat; that's often easier said than done in the NFL.
WEEK 11 PICKS
LIONS AT BEARS- It's difficult to know which Bears team will show up on Sunday, but the Lions have done quite well on the road with a 3-1 record in games outside of Detroit. The Bears are 3-6 will a few surprise wins, but they're also only 2-3 at home. LIONS 24-20
JAGUARS AT BROWNS- Guess who's probably in line for a first overall piiiiiiick. That's right, the worst team in the history of time! JAGUARS 34-13
BUCCANEERS AT DOLPHINS- The Dolphins should be able to manage a win over the Bucs with Jameis Winston sitting out because of a shoulder injury. Certainly doesn't help that Rey Maualuga was just cut because of a misdemeanor assault charge a few days ago, but Miami should be able to win this. DOLPHINS 21-17
RAMS AT VIKINGS- This is the best matchup of the week with two 7-2 teams. The Rams are on a 4 game winning streak, and they've won 6 of their last 7. The Vikings have won 6 of THEIR last 7 games despite the loss of their talented young RB, Dalvin Cook, earlier this season. The Rams are 4-0 on the road, and the Vikings are 4-1 at home. This is such a close matchup that the Vikings are only favored by 1.5 points. It's difficult, however, for me to see the Vikings, who will be without a starting defensive end and safety, stopping a rather ferocious Rams offense that has averaged 32.85 points per game over the last 7 contests and even managed to score 27 against the vaunted Jaguars D. The Rams are the healthier, more complete team going into this. RAMS 30-24
REDSKINS AT SAINTS- The Saints might actually be the most dangerous team in the league. They haven't lost a game since Week 2. Good luck, Redskins. SAINTS 38-21
CHIEFS AT GIANTS- The Chiefs are good at football...the Giants? Not so much. CHIEFS 28-14
CARDINALS AT TEXANS- The Cardinals will be starting Blaine Gabbert at QB today. It'll be nice for the Texans to get a rare win without Deshaun Watson. TEXANS 27-23
BILLS AT CHARGERS- The Chargers are a decent team that has been the victim of one of the toughest schedules in the NFL up to this point. The Bills will be starting a backup QB after a cross country flight. CHARGERS 31-17
BENGALS AT BRONCOS- Too many people thought of the Bengals as being incredibly talented going into the last two seasons just because their minds immediately think of A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert. What made the Bengals so talented several years ago was the combination of Green, Eifert, Sanu, and Marvin Jones. Green by himself simply isn't enough to take over a game. If the Bengals lose this game today, their chance at a playoff berth is nearly zero. They would be wise to pack it in and play for a top 5 draft pick. The Bengals have won only a single game on the road this season despite hanging tough against some decent opponents. The Broncos have done just as poorly, but they'll have homefield advantage today. The Broncos have lost 5 straight games, but they're 3-2 at home and the Bengals are, as mentioned earlier, 1-4 on the road. BRONCOS 24-21
PATRIOTS AT RAIDERS- The Raiders don't have nearly enough in the way of defense to stop Tom Brady...who happens to be the league's leader in passing yards right now. PATRIOTS 34-21
EAGLES AT COWBOYS- The Eagles appear to be the best, most complete team in the league. The Cowboys won't have Ezekiel Elliot for the next 6 games. EAGLES 33-23
FALCONS AT SEAHAWKS- The Falcons haven't been great this season, but they've won 2 of their last 3 games and will be playing a Seahawks secondary without most of its Legion of Boom. Russell Wilson, however, is having a career year from an offensive standpoint. One might say that the Seahawks won't have the defense to stop the Falcons, but I don't believe the Falcons have the defense to stop the Seahawks. SEAHAWKS 28-21
RAVENS AT PACKERS- The prospect of playing in Green Bay in mid November without Ronnie Stanley scares the bejesus out of me, but the Packers are simply too offensively banged up to challenge this Ravens secondary. The fact that the Packers won't have much to use in the running game will mean that Baltimore will be able to pin their ears back and get after a fairly talented, but inexperienced rookie quarterback. The Ravens haven't won many games, but when they've beaten teams this year, they've absolutely destroyed them. RAVENS 31-13
IF THE RAVENS ARE GOING TO MAKE A RUN AT THE PLAYOFFS, THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A WEAK SECOND HALF SCHEDULE AND BEAT THE WOUNDED TEAMS THAT THEY'RE SUPPOSED TO BEAT. IF THEY CAN'T DO THAT TODAY, THEY'RE NOT OFFICIALLY ELIMINATED FROM CONTENTION, BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE THEY CAN WIN MUCH GOING FORWARD. THIS IS NEARLY AS HEALTHY AND RESTED AS THEY'VE BEEN, AND THEY'RE FACING ARGUABLY THE MOST BROKEN TEAM IN THE LEAGUE.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, November 12, 2017
RAVENS BYE WEEK BREAKDOWN
The formula for success in the NFL is markedly different than many may perceive. Because of the rather restrictive salary cap there are essentially two ways to win a Super Bowl. The first way is to be the Patriots. Sure, the Patriots went through a 10 year Super Bowl drought, but they've won 5 Lombardi trophies in a decade and a half. The Steelers amassed 5 Super Bowl wins in 31 years, and the Dallas Cowboys won 5 over the course of a 24 year period. Only the 49ers have won 5 titles in less time, and they won most of those in an era where it was possible to keep the core of a team together for longer periods of time because free agency only took effect in the NFL a year before the 49ers won their last Super Bowl. For all teams NOT named the Patriots, a different formula for winning the Super Bowl has taken form over the past decade.
You've undoubtedly heard that the NFL is a "pass driven league" over the course of the last decade. Defensive rules have been altered with the aim of protecting "defenseless receivers", which has, thus, given pass-catchers a greater chance of securing the football. Old passing statistics from even Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks have become pedestrian in comparison to the numbers generated by many of the league's present day gunslingers. It is for this reason that teams decided that a "franchise quarterback" was essential to hoisting a trophy at the end of the season. There's no question that the league's top quarterbacks tend to win a lot of games, but many of the league's top statistical quarterbacks have only won a single title at most. Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers have, for example, put up absolutely spectacular passing statistics, but neither has managed to get back to the big game since the end of the last decade and the beginning of this one, respectively. What do both of these men have in common other than being unquestionably elite? They both signed massive contracts in the years following their Super Bowl wins.
Since securing respective league-leading contracts, Brees and Rodgers have each found themselves leading incomplete teams. Both the Saints and Packers have fallen off sharply from a defensive standpoint since their respective Super Bowl victories, and gaudy passing numbers alone tend not to carry a team to consistent post-season victories. A high level of passing yards can, in fact, be an indication that a team is playing from behind in games on a frequent basis. Last season, for example, Joe Flacco threw for a career high 4300+ passing yards, and the Ravens failed to make the playoffs. Joe Flacco's most successful seasons featured passing yard totals below 4000--they also featured Joe Flacco with a manageable salary cap number.
Joe Flacco was, at one point, an integral cog in a fairly efficient post-season machine. He lacked the elite field general ability to run his own offense with fire and intensity seen in such legends of the last 20 years as Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, but he possessed an incredibly strong arm and an elite level of emotional unflappability at critical times and in harsh environments. While Flacco was on his rookie contract, fans got comfortable with the idea that, while he wouldn't always play perfectly in the regular season, and while there were certain teams against which he routinely struggled, Joe Cool would rise to the occasion and never exit a post-season without at least one win. That success came to a crescendo as he proudly hoisted a Lombardi over his head and chuckled at all the doubters who said he'd never ascend to that point. Then he got paid. Joe Flacco didn't just get paid, he got the biggest contract in NFL history up to that point. It seemed to make sense at the time. Flacco had, after all, won Super Bowl MVP and made himself the winningest road quarterback in NFL history. He deserved a long term deal, but not nearly as much money as he received.
The concept that the market determines the next big contract is an unfortunate inevitability in a league that restricts so heavily the piece of the overall NFL cash pie that each team can pay its players. Paying Flacco 120 million dollars, for example, pushed the Ravens into a mindset where they felt the need to jettison players such as Boldin who deserved every penny of the salary he earned in his final season as a Raven. It quickly became clear following the post-Super Bowl departure of Reed, Boldin, and Pollard that the Ravens incorrectly assessed what it takes Joe Flacco to be successful. Joe requires a strong supporting cast of characters to be successful, and he needs an offensive system that both fits his strengths and features a strong rushing attack to help take pressure off of him. The Ravens have most certainly NOT provided Flacco with a consistent offensive coordinator or system, and they haven't had a truly elite complimentary offensive weapon on the roster since Ray Rice.
The Ravens have managed to give big contracts to such important players as Brandon Williams, Marshal Yanda, and Jimmy Smith in recently years, but because of the combination of those contracts and the league-leading cap number of Flacco, Baltimore has been forced to settle for signing bargain offensive free agent weapons. They look for formerly elite receivers north of 30 years old and running backs cut from other teams such as Justin Forsett and Alex Collins. Long gone are the days where the Ravens would pick a running back in the first or second round such as Jamal Lewis or Ray Rice. That isn't to say the Ravens haven't picked extremely well in the first round of the last two drafts with Ronnie Stanley and Marlon Humphrey, but you don't see any Ravens jerseys selling out of the stores right now.
If you haven't already sensed an overall theme, I'll make it abundantly clear: if your team isn't the Patriots, the best way to get to the Super Bowl is with a young talented quarterback still on his rookie contract. Russell Wilson went to two Super Bowls in recent years because he's talented, but also because he had not yet received a massive deal. Since receiving that deal, his team isn't nearly the same force it was only a few years ago. The same goes, of course, for Joe Flacco. Hell, some teams skipped over that point entirely because the supporting cast for their currently overpaid quarterback was never where it needed to be while he was still on his rookie deal. Both Matthew Stafford and Andrew Luck have, through their massive contracts, crippled their teams' ability to improve to a level necessary to achieve serious post-season success. That doesn't mean a team can't pay its franchise quarterback, but it does mean that teams must give a true evaluation of what exactly their quarterback is worth and not simply bend to the will of a market that dictates that essentially every next big quarterback contract will be the biggest in history. After all, the Ravens took a lanky rookie to the AFC championship in 2008 because the rest of their team was absolutely loaded with talent.
Baltimore is stuck with Joe Flacco contractually at least through next season. I don't believe they should stick with Marty Mornhinweg as offensive coordinator unless he's able to architect some incredible second half offensive turn-around. I do, however, believe they're one offensive coordinator and one or two offensive weapons away from being an extremely good team. Getting Marshal Yanda and Alex Lewis back next year will immediately turn the offensive line into an elite unit considering that their tackles and center are currently performing at high levels. They'll have Jeremy Maclin as a quality veteran receiver, and the defense is saturated with playmakers and will only get better as young pass rushers such as Tyus Bowser develop into dominant players. Getting Tavon Young back will help turn the Ravens secondary into what I believe will be the unquestioned best unit in the league next season, and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw the younger players rally around Terrell Suggs in what I believe will be the very last year of his brilliant career.
As for the rest of the 2017 season, I'll be curious to see just what kind of adjustments the Ravens can make coming out of the bye week. The long anticipated return of Danny Woodhead should make things interesting considering how impressive he looked in the brief glimpse fans were given on the first drive of the season. The comparative weakness of the remaining schedule along with major injuries to quarterbacks and key players on remaining opponents means the Ravens have a legitimate shot to win nearly every game that lies before them. Will they do so? It would appear the answer is no, but no one is doing well enough in the AFC that a post-season berth is totally out of reach for Baltimore at this point. The Steelers are 6-2, but as we speak they are losing to the lowly Colts with injuries piling up to such key players as Joe Haden and Vance McDonald. The Patriots are 6-2, but they've escaped a good number of games by the skin of their teeth. Realistically, as poorly as the Ravens have done, they're still only two wins behind the best teams in the conference.
I am encouraged by the rise of Alex Collins as a premier starting running back with excellent lateral movement, great burst, and the ability to break off long runs. If the Ravens are able to put together string of wins after the bye week, he'll likely be a big reason why. He's the type of running back who would have an incredible year in Gary Kubiak's offense. As far as I know, Kubiak still hasn't signed a contract with another team, so let's hope that Steve Bisciotti has established some kind of dialogue with him. The Ravens had the greatest offensive production in team history under Gary, and it would be silly not to make a serious push to bring him back for next season.
Instead of throwing things at the T.V. out of frustration if the Ravens can't make it back to the playoffs, let's just accept that this season's injuries have made a rough start nearly inevitable, and keep our expectations tempered going forward. The answer to fixing this team isn't to fire the entire coaching staff and the general manager, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some major changes within the next season or two if things aren't corrected. Let's just try to enjoy the remainder of the NFL season and be pleasantly surprised if the birds of Baltimore surprise us by turning the season around. For now, just kick back, relax, and enjoy watching the rest of the teams destroying one another.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
You've undoubtedly heard that the NFL is a "pass driven league" over the course of the last decade. Defensive rules have been altered with the aim of protecting "defenseless receivers", which has, thus, given pass-catchers a greater chance of securing the football. Old passing statistics from even Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks have become pedestrian in comparison to the numbers generated by many of the league's present day gunslingers. It is for this reason that teams decided that a "franchise quarterback" was essential to hoisting a trophy at the end of the season. There's no question that the league's top quarterbacks tend to win a lot of games, but many of the league's top statistical quarterbacks have only won a single title at most. Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers have, for example, put up absolutely spectacular passing statistics, but neither has managed to get back to the big game since the end of the last decade and the beginning of this one, respectively. What do both of these men have in common other than being unquestionably elite? They both signed massive contracts in the years following their Super Bowl wins.
Since securing respective league-leading contracts, Brees and Rodgers have each found themselves leading incomplete teams. Both the Saints and Packers have fallen off sharply from a defensive standpoint since their respective Super Bowl victories, and gaudy passing numbers alone tend not to carry a team to consistent post-season victories. A high level of passing yards can, in fact, be an indication that a team is playing from behind in games on a frequent basis. Last season, for example, Joe Flacco threw for a career high 4300+ passing yards, and the Ravens failed to make the playoffs. Joe Flacco's most successful seasons featured passing yard totals below 4000--they also featured Joe Flacco with a manageable salary cap number.
Joe Flacco was, at one point, an integral cog in a fairly efficient post-season machine. He lacked the elite field general ability to run his own offense with fire and intensity seen in such legends of the last 20 years as Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, but he possessed an incredibly strong arm and an elite level of emotional unflappability at critical times and in harsh environments. While Flacco was on his rookie contract, fans got comfortable with the idea that, while he wouldn't always play perfectly in the regular season, and while there were certain teams against which he routinely struggled, Joe Cool would rise to the occasion and never exit a post-season without at least one win. That success came to a crescendo as he proudly hoisted a Lombardi over his head and chuckled at all the doubters who said he'd never ascend to that point. Then he got paid. Joe Flacco didn't just get paid, he got the biggest contract in NFL history up to that point. It seemed to make sense at the time. Flacco had, after all, won Super Bowl MVP and made himself the winningest road quarterback in NFL history. He deserved a long term deal, but not nearly as much money as he received.
The concept that the market determines the next big contract is an unfortunate inevitability in a league that restricts so heavily the piece of the overall NFL cash pie that each team can pay its players. Paying Flacco 120 million dollars, for example, pushed the Ravens into a mindset where they felt the need to jettison players such as Boldin who deserved every penny of the salary he earned in his final season as a Raven. It quickly became clear following the post-Super Bowl departure of Reed, Boldin, and Pollard that the Ravens incorrectly assessed what it takes Joe Flacco to be successful. Joe requires a strong supporting cast of characters to be successful, and he needs an offensive system that both fits his strengths and features a strong rushing attack to help take pressure off of him. The Ravens have most certainly NOT provided Flacco with a consistent offensive coordinator or system, and they haven't had a truly elite complimentary offensive weapon on the roster since Ray Rice.
The Ravens have managed to give big contracts to such important players as Brandon Williams, Marshal Yanda, and Jimmy Smith in recently years, but because of the combination of those contracts and the league-leading cap number of Flacco, Baltimore has been forced to settle for signing bargain offensive free agent weapons. They look for formerly elite receivers north of 30 years old and running backs cut from other teams such as Justin Forsett and Alex Collins. Long gone are the days where the Ravens would pick a running back in the first or second round such as Jamal Lewis or Ray Rice. That isn't to say the Ravens haven't picked extremely well in the first round of the last two drafts with Ronnie Stanley and Marlon Humphrey, but you don't see any Ravens jerseys selling out of the stores right now.
If you haven't already sensed an overall theme, I'll make it abundantly clear: if your team isn't the Patriots, the best way to get to the Super Bowl is with a young talented quarterback still on his rookie contract. Russell Wilson went to two Super Bowls in recent years because he's talented, but also because he had not yet received a massive deal. Since receiving that deal, his team isn't nearly the same force it was only a few years ago. The same goes, of course, for Joe Flacco. Hell, some teams skipped over that point entirely because the supporting cast for their currently overpaid quarterback was never where it needed to be while he was still on his rookie deal. Both Matthew Stafford and Andrew Luck have, through their massive contracts, crippled their teams' ability to improve to a level necessary to achieve serious post-season success. That doesn't mean a team can't pay its franchise quarterback, but it does mean that teams must give a true evaluation of what exactly their quarterback is worth and not simply bend to the will of a market that dictates that essentially every next big quarterback contract will be the biggest in history. After all, the Ravens took a lanky rookie to the AFC championship in 2008 because the rest of their team was absolutely loaded with talent.
Baltimore is stuck with Joe Flacco contractually at least through next season. I don't believe they should stick with Marty Mornhinweg as offensive coordinator unless he's able to architect some incredible second half offensive turn-around. I do, however, believe they're one offensive coordinator and one or two offensive weapons away from being an extremely good team. Getting Marshal Yanda and Alex Lewis back next year will immediately turn the offensive line into an elite unit considering that their tackles and center are currently performing at high levels. They'll have Jeremy Maclin as a quality veteran receiver, and the defense is saturated with playmakers and will only get better as young pass rushers such as Tyus Bowser develop into dominant players. Getting Tavon Young back will help turn the Ravens secondary into what I believe will be the unquestioned best unit in the league next season, and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw the younger players rally around Terrell Suggs in what I believe will be the very last year of his brilliant career.
As for the rest of the 2017 season, I'll be curious to see just what kind of adjustments the Ravens can make coming out of the bye week. The long anticipated return of Danny Woodhead should make things interesting considering how impressive he looked in the brief glimpse fans were given on the first drive of the season. The comparative weakness of the remaining schedule along with major injuries to quarterbacks and key players on remaining opponents means the Ravens have a legitimate shot to win nearly every game that lies before them. Will they do so? It would appear the answer is no, but no one is doing well enough in the AFC that a post-season berth is totally out of reach for Baltimore at this point. The Steelers are 6-2, but as we speak they are losing to the lowly Colts with injuries piling up to such key players as Joe Haden and Vance McDonald. The Patriots are 6-2, but they've escaped a good number of games by the skin of their teeth. Realistically, as poorly as the Ravens have done, they're still only two wins behind the best teams in the conference.
I am encouraged by the rise of Alex Collins as a premier starting running back with excellent lateral movement, great burst, and the ability to break off long runs. If the Ravens are able to put together string of wins after the bye week, he'll likely be a big reason why. He's the type of running back who would have an incredible year in Gary Kubiak's offense. As far as I know, Kubiak still hasn't signed a contract with another team, so let's hope that Steve Bisciotti has established some kind of dialogue with him. The Ravens had the greatest offensive production in team history under Gary, and it would be silly not to make a serious push to bring him back for next season.
Instead of throwing things at the T.V. out of frustration if the Ravens can't make it back to the playoffs, let's just accept that this season's injuries have made a rough start nearly inevitable, and keep our expectations tempered going forward. The answer to fixing this team isn't to fire the entire coaching staff and the general manager, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some major changes within the next season or two if things aren't corrected. Let's just try to enjoy the remainder of the NFL season and be pleasantly surprised if the birds of Baltimore surprise us by turning the season around. For now, just kick back, relax, and enjoy watching the rest of the teams destroying one another.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, November 5, 2017
WEEK 9 NFL PREDICTIONS AND RAVENS MIDSEASON ANALYSIS
A 4-4 record wouldn't ordinarily give fans much confidence in their favorite team's odds of making the playoffs. A perplexing blowout loss to the Jaguars and an emotionally draining home loss to the Bears left many Ravens fans feeling as though the season was lost before it was even half way over. Many proclaimed Harbaugh and his staff to be the main reasons for Baltimore's struggles, and there is likely at least some truth to that theory. Available player personnel, however, has been a far greater factor on a week to week basis, and one has but to compare the injury reports from wins and losses to see just how profoundly missing starters impacted the outcomes.
The Ravens began the regular season on quite a tear with two impressive wins in which the Ravens demonstrated dominance in the running game and defense. The preseason saw injuries to impact starters such as Kenneth Dixon, Tavon Young, Crocket Gillmore, and most notably Joe Flacco. Sadly, the injury bug crept into the regular season almost immediately as Danny Woodhead injured his hamstring near the end of the first offensive drive of the season--a drive in which he was the most critical offensive weapon. During that single drive, though, Ravens fans and coaches alike got a glimpse of how easily the Ravens were able to methodically move the down the field with Woodhead lined up in the slot and as a running back catching passes out of the backfield. One has to wonder how many more drives the Ravens would have been able to complete with a healthy Woodhead over the course of this season. Well fans in Baltimore won't have to wait much longer to find out as Woodhead is on pace to return in just over two weeks against the Packers and following the bye week.
Arguably the greatest personnel losses of the season were not of skills positions. Starting left guard, Alex Lewis, was lost during the off-season and potential future Hall-of-Famer starting right guard, Marshal Yanda, went on injured reserve after the second game. Luckily for the Ravens, they had an improved James Hurst to plug in at left guard, but Yanda left a far greater void on the right side. Baltimore gave time to journeyman Tony Bergstrom, but the coaches were apparently not impressed as he was benched and then cut. Matt Skura then stepped in and gave shaky performances against the Jaguars and Steelers, but began to improve before becoming injured. British-born draft pick, Jermaine Eluemunor, stepped in for Skura and struggled--oh boy did he struggle. It wasn't until Skura returned from injury that the Ravens solidified the right side with a ferociously dominant win over the Dolphins just over a week ago, but one has to assume the Ravens offense would not have looked so incredibly hapless in losses if either Lewis or Yanda had stayed healthy...but that's football.
I expected SOMETHING to be done for the right guard position before the trade deadline last week, but a lack of salary cap space prevented the Ravens from acquiring the likes of the Texans Pro Bowl left tackle Duane Brown who was ultimately traded to the Seahawks instead. Brown could have been plugged in at right guard to form a monstrous duo on the right side along with giant starting right tackle Austin Howard. The Ravens are, thus, stuck with Matt Skura until next season. That may not, however, be reason for panic as Skura appears to have improved with experience after being thrown into the fire this season.
The rest of the Ravens offensive line has actually been a bright spot as of late. Ronnie Stanley should go to his first Pro Bowl based on the way he's playing, and Austin Howard is not far behind as both a ranked in the top 5 at their respective positions. Ryan Jensen has been a truly pleasant surprise with his solidification as the presumptive center of the future for Baltimore. Jensen won the respect and admiration of fans (including this writer) with his Yanda-esque ferocity and explosive instinct to protect and stand up for his teammates when opponents take cheap shots. This is the type of guy the Ravens pine after, and he's only going to continue to improve with increased experience as a starter. Because of some excellent run-blocking, the Ravens rising star running back, Alex Collins, has produced a level and frequency of explosive plays not seen in a Ravens uniform since Ray Rice in his prime. Collins ranks 9th in the NFL in rushing yards despite no single game with 20+ carries, and the Ravens rank 7th in the league in rushing yards per game. Suffice it to say that Baltimore has fixed it's ground attack.
Fixing rushing production was a priority in the off-season, and the Raven have accomplished exactly that without investing a high draft pick on a big name running back. They also did so without their break-out 4th round pick from last season, Kenneth Dixon. The passing attack, however, has suffered to a bizarre degree. Joe Flacco is on pace for a career low in passing yards, and the Ravens starting receivers' production has been next to non-existent. Mike Wallace is coming off of a 1000+ yard season, and Jeremy Maclin had 1,318 receiving yards in 2014 and 1,088 receiving yards in 2015 before missing time because of an injury last season. Wallace is currently on pace for roughly 500 yards on the season, and Maclin is on pace for just over 400 yards. The emphasis on the running game as well as a desire to protect Joe Flacco following his summer back injury could be largely to blame for a lack of production with the wide receivers, but something still seems off considering Flacco threw for a career high of 4300+ passing yards last season.
Breshad Perriman may be the biggest mystery of all. He was heralded coming out of the off-season as the potential true #1 receiver with his blazing speed and size. To say the former first round pick has taken a step back would be the understatement of the year. Breshad Perriman has 4 catches and 26 receiving yards on the season--you read that correctly. Lest we forget, Perriman actually made some absolutely spectacular plays last season, and there was no reason to believe he WOULDN'T break out in 2017. Perriman made some absolutely brilliant contested jump ball catches. Take a look at his highlights from last season if you don't believe me:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmSCFkEWZhk
Some may assume this means that Perriman is a bust for a first round pick, and statistically there's little room to deny that, but when one takes into account the puzzlingly low production from the two other explosive proven receivers on the team, #11's near absence isn't quite as mysterious. There IS one rather intriguing possibility for the receivers in the second half of the season. It's impossible that literally all three of these speedy receivers become bad at football simultaneously. If the offensive coaching staff can make some tweaks over the bye week and the second half of the season, it's entirely possible that we could see an upswing in production from the fastest trio of starting Ravens receivers in team history, and the success of the rushing attack could help tremendously to open things up for them.
The Ravens may have to lean on their receivers a bit more today as the Titans boast the league's 9th ranked run defense going into today's game, while their pass defense ranks a far more modest 15th. The Dolphins had a top 10 ranked run defense too and the Ravens had great success on the ground against them, but the Dolphins' offensive struggles allowed the Ravens more opportunities for offensive drives. The Titans haven't been electric as of late with only a narrow overtime win over the lowly, winless Browns, but they're healthier and more well-rested coming off of a bye week. Marcus Mariota and first round pick receiver Corey Davis are the biggest beneficiaries of their week off as Davis will see his first meaningful time on the field in months, and Mariota will likely be more mobile after missing time with a knee injury. The Ravens will have to contain him and force turnovers if they hope to come away with a pivotal road win.
If the Ravens can beat the Titans, they enter the bye week 5-4 with reinforcements on the way. In addition to Danny Woodhead, Baltimore will see the return of starting nickel corner, Maurice Canady. Canady had an eye-popping training camp with 3 impressive picks before going down with an injury. His presence could help the Ravens vaunted secondary to ascend to an even higher level as Lardarius Webb has been picked on by opposing quarterbacks in coverage at numerous critical moments this season. Webb is still useful as a backup safety and as a blitzer coming off the edge, but Canady represents an upgrade in youthful athleticism and coverage ability at this point. Nickel is the had been the only weak point in Baltimore's secondary, and it's safe to say we'll see an uptick in the pass rush when opposing quarterbacks struggle to find open receivers quickly.
The arrow is pointing up for this Ravens team, and they're only two wins behind the best record in the AFC. Parity in the conference and all over the league has meant few teams have looked consistently and truly dominant. A wildcard berth is reasonably in the Ravens sights as they stare down a less challenging second-half schedule than the first half that contained 6 of the league's top defenses. Wins over the Colts, Browns, Texans, Bengals, and hopefully the Packers will get Baltimore to 9 victories which may be enough to secure a post-season spot. A showdown in Pittsburgh with a strong Steelers team could be tough, but nothing the Ravens haven't been able to do before. Don't lose faith, Ravens fans, things are just getting heated up!
WEEK 9 NFL PICKS
BUCCANEERS AT SAINTS- The Saints are on a friggin tear. Difficult to imagine they'll lose at home to a 2-win Tampa Bay team that's 0-3 on the road this season. SAINTS 27-17
RAMS AT GIANTS- The Rams are decent and the Giants are incredibly bad. This pick requires next to no brain power. RAMS 28-14
BRONCOS AT EAGLES- The Eagles have further bolstered their roster with Jay Ajayi. As if they needed the help right now. Meanwhile the Broncos are starting Brock Osweiler who doesn't offer any major upgrade over Trevor Siemian. EAGLES 31-10
FALCONS AT PANTHERS- I can't imagine why the Panthers would want to trade Kelvin Benjamin away, but I still like them at home over Falcons team struggling to keep its head above water. PANTHERS 24-21
BENGALS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars offense could have real trouble moving the ball without Leonard Fournette today. This could very easily, however, be one of those days where the Jags' defense gets 5 picks and humiliates the opposing QB. The weird thing is that the Jags have literally lost every other game they've played...and they won last week. This will be the day Jacksonville gets its first consecutive win of the season. JAGUARS 30-21
COLTS AT TEXANS- Both of these teams' seasons are presumably finished without their respective starting quarterbacks. The Texans still have more weapons and defensive clout, however, than the Colts, and in shutting down Andrew Luck for the season, the Colts appear to in a race to the bottom with the Browns to get the first overall pick in the 2018 draft. TEXANS 21-17
CARDINALS AT 49ERS- Cardinals are another team that, like the Jaguars, has alternated between brilliance and utter incompetence. Coming off of a bye week, however, I'm confident they'll find a way to edge a 49ers team that ranks near the bottom of the league in...everything. CARDINALS 27-23
REDSKINS AT SEAHAWKS- The Seahawks seem to always begin their season poorly, but as usual, they've rounded into playoff-caliber form by midseason once more. The Redskins are 3-4 on the season and 1-2 on the road. There's very little chance they go into Seattle and pull off and upset over a team that hasn't lost in over a month. SEAHAWKS 35-24
CHIEFS AT COWBOYS- The Chiefs are 3-1 on the road this season, and they face a formidable test this week against a Cowboys offense that still has the use of Ezekiel Elliot. The Chiefs are a more complete team, however, and it's tough to imagine they'll struggle to move the football on this Cowboys defense. This will be a good one though. CHIEFS 31-28
RAIDERS AT DOLPHINS- It's difficult to know what the Dolphins offense will look like without its biggest weapon now that Jay Ajayi is an Eagle. I might have predicted a Dolphins win here before he was traded away, but now I simply don't know how they plan to move the football. RAIIDERS 20-14
LIONS AT PACKERS- The Lions have dropped their last 3 games to decent teams, but they're still a more complete team than the Packers without Aaron Rodgers. Divisional familiarity will keep this one close. LIONS 23-17
RAVENS AT TITANS- The Titans are favored in this game, but they did little to inspire confidence with their overtime 12-9 win over the Browns in their last game. Marcus Mariota should be well rested, but so are the Ravens. The Ravens secondary matches up very well against the Titans receiving corps, and I can't see the Titans bottling up Alex Collins. RAVENS 24-16
THIS IS IT, RAVENS FANS. THE SECOND HALF OF THE SEASON IS HERE. THE WEATHER IS GETTING COLDER AND THERE'S NO TEAM THAT HEATS UP WHEN IT'S COLD OUT QUITE LIKE THE BALTIMORE RAVENS!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
The Ravens began the regular season on quite a tear with two impressive wins in which the Ravens demonstrated dominance in the running game and defense. The preseason saw injuries to impact starters such as Kenneth Dixon, Tavon Young, Crocket Gillmore, and most notably Joe Flacco. Sadly, the injury bug crept into the regular season almost immediately as Danny Woodhead injured his hamstring near the end of the first offensive drive of the season--a drive in which he was the most critical offensive weapon. During that single drive, though, Ravens fans and coaches alike got a glimpse of how easily the Ravens were able to methodically move the down the field with Woodhead lined up in the slot and as a running back catching passes out of the backfield. One has to wonder how many more drives the Ravens would have been able to complete with a healthy Woodhead over the course of this season. Well fans in Baltimore won't have to wait much longer to find out as Woodhead is on pace to return in just over two weeks against the Packers and following the bye week.
Arguably the greatest personnel losses of the season were not of skills positions. Starting left guard, Alex Lewis, was lost during the off-season and potential future Hall-of-Famer starting right guard, Marshal Yanda, went on injured reserve after the second game. Luckily for the Ravens, they had an improved James Hurst to plug in at left guard, but Yanda left a far greater void on the right side. Baltimore gave time to journeyman Tony Bergstrom, but the coaches were apparently not impressed as he was benched and then cut. Matt Skura then stepped in and gave shaky performances against the Jaguars and Steelers, but began to improve before becoming injured. British-born draft pick, Jermaine Eluemunor, stepped in for Skura and struggled--oh boy did he struggle. It wasn't until Skura returned from injury that the Ravens solidified the right side with a ferociously dominant win over the Dolphins just over a week ago, but one has to assume the Ravens offense would not have looked so incredibly hapless in losses if either Lewis or Yanda had stayed healthy...but that's football.
I expected SOMETHING to be done for the right guard position before the trade deadline last week, but a lack of salary cap space prevented the Ravens from acquiring the likes of the Texans Pro Bowl left tackle Duane Brown who was ultimately traded to the Seahawks instead. Brown could have been plugged in at right guard to form a monstrous duo on the right side along with giant starting right tackle Austin Howard. The Ravens are, thus, stuck with Matt Skura until next season. That may not, however, be reason for panic as Skura appears to have improved with experience after being thrown into the fire this season.
The rest of the Ravens offensive line has actually been a bright spot as of late. Ronnie Stanley should go to his first Pro Bowl based on the way he's playing, and Austin Howard is not far behind as both a ranked in the top 5 at their respective positions. Ryan Jensen has been a truly pleasant surprise with his solidification as the presumptive center of the future for Baltimore. Jensen won the respect and admiration of fans (including this writer) with his Yanda-esque ferocity and explosive instinct to protect and stand up for his teammates when opponents take cheap shots. This is the type of guy the Ravens pine after, and he's only going to continue to improve with increased experience as a starter. Because of some excellent run-blocking, the Ravens rising star running back, Alex Collins, has produced a level and frequency of explosive plays not seen in a Ravens uniform since Ray Rice in his prime. Collins ranks 9th in the NFL in rushing yards despite no single game with 20+ carries, and the Ravens rank 7th in the league in rushing yards per game. Suffice it to say that Baltimore has fixed it's ground attack.
Fixing rushing production was a priority in the off-season, and the Raven have accomplished exactly that without investing a high draft pick on a big name running back. They also did so without their break-out 4th round pick from last season, Kenneth Dixon. The passing attack, however, has suffered to a bizarre degree. Joe Flacco is on pace for a career low in passing yards, and the Ravens starting receivers' production has been next to non-existent. Mike Wallace is coming off of a 1000+ yard season, and Jeremy Maclin had 1,318 receiving yards in 2014 and 1,088 receiving yards in 2015 before missing time because of an injury last season. Wallace is currently on pace for roughly 500 yards on the season, and Maclin is on pace for just over 400 yards. The emphasis on the running game as well as a desire to protect Joe Flacco following his summer back injury could be largely to blame for a lack of production with the wide receivers, but something still seems off considering Flacco threw for a career high of 4300+ passing yards last season.
Breshad Perriman may be the biggest mystery of all. He was heralded coming out of the off-season as the potential true #1 receiver with his blazing speed and size. To say the former first round pick has taken a step back would be the understatement of the year. Breshad Perriman has 4 catches and 26 receiving yards on the season--you read that correctly. Lest we forget, Perriman actually made some absolutely spectacular plays last season, and there was no reason to believe he WOULDN'T break out in 2017. Perriman made some absolutely brilliant contested jump ball catches. Take a look at his highlights from last season if you don't believe me:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmSCFkEWZhk
Some may assume this means that Perriman is a bust for a first round pick, and statistically there's little room to deny that, but when one takes into account the puzzlingly low production from the two other explosive proven receivers on the team, #11's near absence isn't quite as mysterious. There IS one rather intriguing possibility for the receivers in the second half of the season. It's impossible that literally all three of these speedy receivers become bad at football simultaneously. If the offensive coaching staff can make some tweaks over the bye week and the second half of the season, it's entirely possible that we could see an upswing in production from the fastest trio of starting Ravens receivers in team history, and the success of the rushing attack could help tremendously to open things up for them.
The Ravens may have to lean on their receivers a bit more today as the Titans boast the league's 9th ranked run defense going into today's game, while their pass defense ranks a far more modest 15th. The Dolphins had a top 10 ranked run defense too and the Ravens had great success on the ground against them, but the Dolphins' offensive struggles allowed the Ravens more opportunities for offensive drives. The Titans haven't been electric as of late with only a narrow overtime win over the lowly, winless Browns, but they're healthier and more well-rested coming off of a bye week. Marcus Mariota and first round pick receiver Corey Davis are the biggest beneficiaries of their week off as Davis will see his first meaningful time on the field in months, and Mariota will likely be more mobile after missing time with a knee injury. The Ravens will have to contain him and force turnovers if they hope to come away with a pivotal road win.
If the Ravens can beat the Titans, they enter the bye week 5-4 with reinforcements on the way. In addition to Danny Woodhead, Baltimore will see the return of starting nickel corner, Maurice Canady. Canady had an eye-popping training camp with 3 impressive picks before going down with an injury. His presence could help the Ravens vaunted secondary to ascend to an even higher level as Lardarius Webb has been picked on by opposing quarterbacks in coverage at numerous critical moments this season. Webb is still useful as a backup safety and as a blitzer coming off the edge, but Canady represents an upgrade in youthful athleticism and coverage ability at this point. Nickel is the had been the only weak point in Baltimore's secondary, and it's safe to say we'll see an uptick in the pass rush when opposing quarterbacks struggle to find open receivers quickly.
The arrow is pointing up for this Ravens team, and they're only two wins behind the best record in the AFC. Parity in the conference and all over the league has meant few teams have looked consistently and truly dominant. A wildcard berth is reasonably in the Ravens sights as they stare down a less challenging second-half schedule than the first half that contained 6 of the league's top defenses. Wins over the Colts, Browns, Texans, Bengals, and hopefully the Packers will get Baltimore to 9 victories which may be enough to secure a post-season spot. A showdown in Pittsburgh with a strong Steelers team could be tough, but nothing the Ravens haven't been able to do before. Don't lose faith, Ravens fans, things are just getting heated up!
WEEK 9 NFL PICKS
BUCCANEERS AT SAINTS- The Saints are on a friggin tear. Difficult to imagine they'll lose at home to a 2-win Tampa Bay team that's 0-3 on the road this season. SAINTS 27-17
RAMS AT GIANTS- The Rams are decent and the Giants are incredibly bad. This pick requires next to no brain power. RAMS 28-14
BRONCOS AT EAGLES- The Eagles have further bolstered their roster with Jay Ajayi. As if they needed the help right now. Meanwhile the Broncos are starting Brock Osweiler who doesn't offer any major upgrade over Trevor Siemian. EAGLES 31-10
FALCONS AT PANTHERS- I can't imagine why the Panthers would want to trade Kelvin Benjamin away, but I still like them at home over Falcons team struggling to keep its head above water. PANTHERS 24-21
BENGALS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars offense could have real trouble moving the ball without Leonard Fournette today. This could very easily, however, be one of those days where the Jags' defense gets 5 picks and humiliates the opposing QB. The weird thing is that the Jags have literally lost every other game they've played...and they won last week. This will be the day Jacksonville gets its first consecutive win of the season. JAGUARS 30-21
COLTS AT TEXANS- Both of these teams' seasons are presumably finished without their respective starting quarterbacks. The Texans still have more weapons and defensive clout, however, than the Colts, and in shutting down Andrew Luck for the season, the Colts appear to in a race to the bottom with the Browns to get the first overall pick in the 2018 draft. TEXANS 21-17
CARDINALS AT 49ERS- Cardinals are another team that, like the Jaguars, has alternated between brilliance and utter incompetence. Coming off of a bye week, however, I'm confident they'll find a way to edge a 49ers team that ranks near the bottom of the league in...everything. CARDINALS 27-23
REDSKINS AT SEAHAWKS- The Seahawks seem to always begin their season poorly, but as usual, they've rounded into playoff-caliber form by midseason once more. The Redskins are 3-4 on the season and 1-2 on the road. There's very little chance they go into Seattle and pull off and upset over a team that hasn't lost in over a month. SEAHAWKS 35-24
CHIEFS AT COWBOYS- The Chiefs are 3-1 on the road this season, and they face a formidable test this week against a Cowboys offense that still has the use of Ezekiel Elliot. The Chiefs are a more complete team, however, and it's tough to imagine they'll struggle to move the football on this Cowboys defense. This will be a good one though. CHIEFS 31-28
RAIDERS AT DOLPHINS- It's difficult to know what the Dolphins offense will look like without its biggest weapon now that Jay Ajayi is an Eagle. I might have predicted a Dolphins win here before he was traded away, but now I simply don't know how they plan to move the football. RAIIDERS 20-14
LIONS AT PACKERS- The Lions have dropped their last 3 games to decent teams, but they're still a more complete team than the Packers without Aaron Rodgers. Divisional familiarity will keep this one close. LIONS 23-17
RAVENS AT TITANS- The Titans are favored in this game, but they did little to inspire confidence with their overtime 12-9 win over the Browns in their last game. Marcus Mariota should be well rested, but so are the Ravens. The Ravens secondary matches up very well against the Titans receiving corps, and I can't see the Titans bottling up Alex Collins. RAVENS 24-16
THIS IS IT, RAVENS FANS. THE SECOND HALF OF THE SEASON IS HERE. THE WEATHER IS GETTING COLDER AND THERE'S NO TEAM THAT HEATS UP WHEN IT'S COLD OUT QUITE LIKE THE BALTIMORE RAVENS!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)