Thanksgiving didn't feature much in the way of exciting NFL football. The Redskins-Giants game was one of the most painful displays of professional football in the last several decades, the Cowboys scored only a single touchdown for the 3rd straight week without Ezekiel Elliott, and the Vikings tightened their stranglehold on the NFC North with their win in Detroit. These games might appear to have nothing to do with the Ravens, but there are at least a couple of points that may prove pertinent to the Ravens' upcoming schedule.
The Detroit Lions will play the Ravens in Week 13, and if Thanksgiving's first game was any indication, that won't be an easy task. It certainly seemed at times as though the Vikings dominated the Lions on Thursday, but Detroit finished only one touchdown behind. One shouldn't glean too much from a divisional game considering they're often competitive despite a disparity in the overall strength of the teams playing, but the Lions are no sort of pushovers. Not only will the Lions be coming off of nearly a week and a half of rest, but they also boast a 4-1 road record on the season, and the Ravens haven't been invincible at home in years.
Beating the Lions could very well be a tough task, but it also might not be necessary considering the rest of the Ravens remaining schedule. It will likely take only 9 wins to clinch a wildcard spot, and the other teams within striking distance have much tougher upcoming opponents. One team thought to be totally out of the running for a playoff spot is the Chargers. Philip Rivers and company lost 6 of their first 9 games, but they have now won 5 of their last 7 to improve to 5-6 on the season. What has been even more impressive is just how explosive the Chargers offense has been for the past two weeks. They scored a whopping 54 points against the Bills, and then Rivers threw for well over 400 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Cowboys in Dallas on Thanksgiving night.
The Chargers now find themselves one game back from a wilting but division-leading Chiefs team that appeared to be the most dominant force in the AFC through the first 6 weeks of the season. The Chiefs have lost 4 of their last 5 games, and the Chargers could easily overtake them as division leader in the AFC West as every team left on their schedule is quite beatable. If that happens, it's quite possible that the Ravens could find themselves faced with a road trip to California in the first round of the playoffs. This all only goes to show that one shouldn't get too high or low about a team's early struggles in an NFL season. The regular season is 4 months long and injuries and adjustments to opponents' schemes can change the landscape of competition profoundly over only a handful of weeks.
The Ravens, unlike the Chargers, don't have a great opportunity to overtake their most hated rivals, the Steelers, for the lead in their division, but, like the Chargers, they're starting to heat up at the right time. Suggs and company have pitched two shutouts in their last 3 games, and they have the highest margin of victory of any team in the NFL as they've outscored opponents 137-27 in their five wins. The Ravens have struggled against many of the better teams in the league, but they've shown unquestionably that they can dominate mediocre and bad teams. That's quite convenient as the Texans happen to be a bad team since the season-ending injury to Deshaun Watson's knee.
Just how bad ARE the Texans? Well they lost 4 of their last 6 games, but their only win over the last month came against a Cardinals team that has essentially lost all hope without Carson Palmer. The Texans also lost the most dominant defensive player in the league when J.J. Watt went down with a season ending injury. The Texans will be without two starting offensive linemen on Monday night, and wide receiver Will Fuller has been ruled out as well. DeAndre Hopskins is the only true offensive weapon the Texans have left, and he has even been dealing with a foot injury of his own though he is expected to play on Monday night.
There was a bit of a scare earlier this week that the Ravens would be missing two of their own starting offensive linemen with Ronnie Stanley still in concussion protocol and Austin Howard held out of practice with a reported knee injury. Both men, however, returned to practice by Friday on a full participant level, and that's relieving considering the fact that a ferocious pass rusher will soon take the field with his sights on Joe Flacco.
Jadeveon Clowney is the only remaining pass rusher left this season of the Watt-Mercilus-Clowney trio. He, nevertheless, has found a way to generate a consistent pass rush and be disruptive to opposing offenses by himself. With 8 sacks on the year, Clowney has more than any Ravens pass rusher as Terrell Suggs leads Baltimore with 7.5. Teams have trouble keying in on the young, dynamic playmaker because the Texans line him up all over the defensive front seven. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Texans have Clowney pick on the Ravens' comparatively weak guards considering the strength and track record of the Baltimore tackles and center this season. Clowney is not, however, the best pass rusher the Ravens have faced this season, and his location simply needs to be identified prior to the snap so he can be properly accounted for and double-teamed.
Another Texans player that will likely require a double team all night is DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins is easily one of the top 3 receivers in the league this season, and despite not having a legitimate starting quarterback to deliver him the ball, he has still managed to amass 879 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns. Hopkins' production hasn't waned since Deshaun Watson went down for the season, but that might change profoundly this week as the Texans #2 receiver and best deep threat with 19.2 yards per catch, Will Fuller, will not play. Fuller caught 7 touchdown passes in 2017 which is 30% of the Texans' total 23 receiving touchdowns. The speedy Notre Dame product ran a 4.32 official NFL combine 40 yard dash in 2016, and his absence will allow the Ravens to zero in on Hopkins all game.
There are two things the Texans have done unquestionably well this season: running the football and stopping the run. Houston ranks 6th in the league in rushing yards per game, and rank 7th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game. That doesn't mean that it's impossible to run the football on them, and it certainly doesn't mean that their running game can't be stopped, but I don't expect a monstrous day on the ground for Alex Collins and company. The Texans will likely put forth the bulk of their defensive efforts to stacking the box and stopping the Ravens rushing attack. This, they likely hope, will force Flacco to throw the football in a year where he has struggled mightily to do so. The issue with that strategy is that the Texans rank 23rd in the league in passing yards allowed, and they rank dead last in passing touchdowns allowed. If there was ever a day where Ravens wide receivers, tight ends, and pass-catching running backs would feast on an opposing pass defense, it would be Monday night.
The Ravens offense may still struggle early to find a rhythm and pull away from the Texans until the second half, but I fully expect the Ravens defense to hold the Texans nearly scoreless, if not entirely scoreless. With a full staff, this Texans team is dangerous, but this roster is a shell of its former self with over half of its top playmakers on injured reserve. If Baltimore can't put this wounded animal down in primetime on Monday night, they're going to struggle hard the following week against a much better Detroit Lions squad. Let's just consider this week to be phase one of Operation Beat-the-Teams-They're-Supposed-to-Beat. Ok, let's take a look at this week's picks!
WEEK 12 NFL PICKS
BUCCANEERS AT FALCONS- The Buccanners' road record has been an absolutely abysmal 1-4 this season, and the Falcons are heating up at the right time winning 3 of their last 4 games including a major upset of the Seahawks in Seattle last week. This is a divisional game, however, so it will be closer than many expect. FALCONS 31-28
BROWNS AT BENGALS- The Bengals will keep fairly dim playoff hopes alive with a win over the winless Browns this week. BENGALS 24-14
TITANS AT COLTS- The Colts have still fought hard despite being basically eliminated from playoff contention for quite some time. The Titans handled the Colts 36-22 in Nashville, and I expect a similar performance this week as Marcus Mariota isn't hobbled the way he was the first time these two teams faced one another. TITANS 33-17
BILLS AT CHIEFS- This is an interesting matchup because it features two teams that looked dominant earlier this season, but have fallen off as of late and desperately need a win. The Chiefs have lost 4 of their last 5 games, and the Bills have lost their last 3 straight. Tyrod Taylor will start, but he will be without the recently acquired target Kelvin Benjamin. The Bills defense has been so insanely poor as of late that I have to give the edge to the Chiefs at home. The Bills defense has, in fact, allowed an average of 45 points per game over the last 3 weeks. CHIEFS 34-23
DOLPHINS AT PATRIOTS- It was only a matter of time before Brandin Cooks became familiarize with the Patriots offensive system and began to flourish. He has more than made up for Julian Edelman's absence with 786 receiving yards thus far this season. The Dolphins have sadly lost their last 4 games, and with two upcoming games against the Patriots their playoff chances are slim to none. The question going forward will be whether they draft a QB or stick with a recovered Tannehill for the foreseeable future. PATRIOTS 38-20
PANTHERS AT JETS- The Jets have lost 4 of their last 5 games and the Panthers are 7-3. The Panthers have lost a letdown game or two this season, but it's difficult to imagine them dropping one to this team. PANTHERS 24-17
BEARS AT EAGLES- The Eagles are the most complete team in the NFL. EAGLES 35-21
SEAHAWKS AT 49ERS- These teams are usually competitive when playing one another, but it's difficult to believe the 49ers will be able to contain Russell Wilson. SEAHAWKS 28-24
BRONCOS AT RAIDERS- This is a matchup of two of the best teams from the previous couple of seasons...and they both now suck. The edge has to go to the Raiders who have at least won 2 of their last 4 games. RAIDERS 30-23
SAINTS AT RAMS- This is easily the best, most intriguing matchup of the week. Both the Rams and Saints have been strong for months now. The Rams' only losses have come against the Seahawks when the Seahawk's defense still had its biggest pieces and then last week against a defensively ferocious Vikings. The Saints haven't been pitted against an elite defense in quite some time, and the Rams rank 7th in points allowed this season. Considering how close the Redskins came last week to beating the Saints in New Orleans, I have to believe the Rams will be strong enough to knock them off in Los Angeles on Sunday. RAMS 31-28
JAGUARS AT CARDINALS- Jalen Ramsey WILL be playing, and the Cardinals will be losing. JAGUARS 37-13
PACKERS AT STEELERS- This is the weakest Packers team I've ever known. The Steelers defense is top 3 in the league and will easily stifle this decapitated group from Green Bay. STEELERS 42-10
TEXANS AT RAVENS- The Texans are down to essentially one offensive weapon, and they're about to go against the second rated secondary in the league. The Ravens shouldn't allow Tom Savage to breathe, and they'll likely pick him off as he tries to force the ball to DeAndre Hopkins in double and triple coverage. The Texans will do whatever they can to stop the Ravens rushing attack, and that means we'll see what Joe Flacco can do. I have a feeling Danny Woodhead will catch at least 5-6 passes and allow Joe to get rid of the ball quick enough to neutralize pressure. If the Ravens offense can't open up through the air against this team, they're going to have a hard time against any playoff team they might face assuming they make it that far. RAVENS 24-3
IT'S BLACKOUT TIME AT THE BANK ON MONDAY NIGHT! TIME FOR THE RAVENS DEFENSE TO FEAST! I HOPE EVERYONE HAD A WONDERFUL THANKSGIVING!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, November 26, 2017
Thursday, November 23, 2017
THANKSGIVING NFL PREDICTIONS
There is only one quality football team playing in today's games if we're going by regular season record. The Vikings have endured a string of injuries and somehow managed to emerge battle-tested with an 8-2 record and currently enjoying a 6 game winning streak. All of the other teams have had enough ups and downs to make their respective fan bases fairly doubtful about the prospects of a serious playoff run. Despite that fact, there is still enough football left for a number of these teams to make a run at a wildcard spot, and every game is, thus, absolutely relevant today. With that, let's get into today's predictions!
VIKINGS AT LIONS- These are easily the best two teams playing today, and they happen to be divisional rivals. The Lions did have a three game losing streak that ended a month ago, but they're currently on a 3 game winning streak with their most recent win over another division rival in the Chicago Bears. The Lions already beat the Vikings earlier this season, but they did so as the Lions were right in the thick of a rash of injuries. It's difficult to imagine this game will be any sort of blowout, but the way the Vikings have played as of late, it's difficult to imagine the Lions repeating their performance from earlier this season. The Lions' most recent wins have come against some softball teams such as the currently crippled packers and the perpetually inept Browns. The Vikings, on the other hand, just crushed the Rams... VIKINGS 31-17
CHARGERS AT COWBOYS- The Cowboys have scored a total of 14 points in their last two games. It turns out Ezekiel Elliot's availability is the difference between soundly beating the Chiefs and getting crushed by the Eagles and Falcons. The Chargers haven't won all that many games, but they're rounding into decent form, and Philip Rivers has some nice weapons at his disposal. Let's also not forget that the Chargers put up 54 points on the Bills last week...54. CHARGERS 28-21
GIANTS AT REDSKINS- The Giants are a 2-win team. Kudos to them for beating the Chiefs in a defensive battle, but they're still a worse team than the Redskins. I'm still at a loss as to how the Skins lost to the Saints last week when they had a 15 point lead with 3 minutes left in the 4th quarter, but they're not going up against the Saints this week. This is a time for Washington to take its frustrations out on a Giants team whose number they typically have anyway. REDSKINS 24-14
As for our beloved Ravens, Monday presents a nice opportunity to both beat up on a backup quarterback and possibly record yet another shutout to gain defensive momentum heading into more competitive games against the Lions and eventually the Steelers. Nine games will likely clinch a playoff berth, so the Ravens simply need to beat the teams they're SUPPOSED to beat remaining on the schedule to get to nine. That means the Ravens need to beat the Texans, Colts, Browns, and Bengals. If, however, Baltimore finds a way to beat either the Lions or Steelers and have clinched a wildcard berth going into the final week of the regular season, it would behoove them to sit their starters against the Bengals the way they did last time they won a Super Bowl. This is truly getting interesting!
HAPPY THANKSGIVING, EVERYONE!
AND AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
VIKINGS AT LIONS- These are easily the best two teams playing today, and they happen to be divisional rivals. The Lions did have a three game losing streak that ended a month ago, but they're currently on a 3 game winning streak with their most recent win over another division rival in the Chicago Bears. The Lions already beat the Vikings earlier this season, but they did so as the Lions were right in the thick of a rash of injuries. It's difficult to imagine this game will be any sort of blowout, but the way the Vikings have played as of late, it's difficult to imagine the Lions repeating their performance from earlier this season. The Lions' most recent wins have come against some softball teams such as the currently crippled packers and the perpetually inept Browns. The Vikings, on the other hand, just crushed the Rams... VIKINGS 31-17
CHARGERS AT COWBOYS- The Cowboys have scored a total of 14 points in their last two games. It turns out Ezekiel Elliot's availability is the difference between soundly beating the Chiefs and getting crushed by the Eagles and Falcons. The Chargers haven't won all that many games, but they're rounding into decent form, and Philip Rivers has some nice weapons at his disposal. Let's also not forget that the Chargers put up 54 points on the Bills last week...54. CHARGERS 28-21
GIANTS AT REDSKINS- The Giants are a 2-win team. Kudos to them for beating the Chiefs in a defensive battle, but they're still a worse team than the Redskins. I'm still at a loss as to how the Skins lost to the Saints last week when they had a 15 point lead with 3 minutes left in the 4th quarter, but they're not going up against the Saints this week. This is a time for Washington to take its frustrations out on a Giants team whose number they typically have anyway. REDSKINS 24-14
As for our beloved Ravens, Monday presents a nice opportunity to both beat up on a backup quarterback and possibly record yet another shutout to gain defensive momentum heading into more competitive games against the Lions and eventually the Steelers. Nine games will likely clinch a playoff berth, so the Ravens simply need to beat the teams they're SUPPOSED to beat remaining on the schedule to get to nine. That means the Ravens need to beat the Texans, Colts, Browns, and Bengals. If, however, Baltimore finds a way to beat either the Lions or Steelers and have clinched a wildcard berth going into the final week of the regular season, it would behoove them to sit their starters against the Bengals the way they did last time they won a Super Bowl. This is truly getting interesting!
HAPPY THANKSGIVING, EVERYONE!
AND AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, November 19, 2017
WEEK 11 NFL PREDICTIONS
The Green Bay Packers, despite their win over the Chicago Bears last weekend, are horribly short-staffed going into their home game against the Baltimore Ravens. Aaron Rodgers' absence alone totally changes the identity and power of the team, and it certainly doesn't help that the Pack will be missing starting offensive linemen and both of their top running backs as well. The Ravens are coming off of a much needed bye week and are reportedly healthier than they've been collectively all season--healthier, that is, except one of their most critical offensive pieces.
The Ravens went through a 4 game losing streak during the 2016 season that directly corresponded with the timing of Ronnie Stanley's foot injury. The elite left tackle has performed at a Pro Bowl level this season, and it's difficult to assume his absence won't have just as profound an impact this season, if not more. Stanley exited the Ravens-Titans game late in the 4th quarter with what turned out to be a concussion. Despite his presence at practice all week, the former 6th overall pick will almost certainly not play in Green Bay on Sunday as his status was listed as doubtful. That reportedly will mean the Ravens will slide James Hurst to left tackle and plug in a backup at left guard. Many of you might remember James Hurst from such magical moments as getting bull-rushed into Joe Flacco's knee causing a season-ending ACL tear. I understand that Hurst has bulked up and improved overall this season, but it's difficult to imagine he'll replace a top 5 left tackle in the league on short notice.
If the Ravens are to win on the road this week, they're going to have to utilize their weapons properly for the first time this season. That means connecting with Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace on intermediate and deep routes, feeding Alex Collins the football 17-20 times, involving Nick Boyle and Ben Watson in the passing attack, and unleashing Danny Woodhead as a pass-catching back/slot receiver. Woodhead, if he can stay healthy, might just be the key to the Ravens' offensive woes. He gets open fast, catches nearly everything thrown his way, and makes defenders miss for fantastic yards after the catch. Woodhead's ability to get open almost immediately will help Flacco to get the ball out of his hands quickly and mitigate potential damage caused by Ronnie Stanley's absence.
Green Bay's defense isn't exactly daunting with a 22nd ranking in average yards allowed per game. The Ravens, by contrast, boast the NFL's 5 ranked defense, and they've put up some absolutely suffocating performances this season. It's tough to imagine that a rested Ravens defense wouldn't absolutely feast on a backup quarterback who won't enjoy the company of either of his top two running backs or his starting left tackle, but the defense can only do so much. In games where the offense can't sustain and finish drives, the Ravens defense finds itself on the field for far too much time, and ultimately opposing teams find ways to put up enough points to edge Baltimore. The Bears and Titans, for example, beat the Ravens because Baltimore simply couldn't make anything happen offensively in the first half of either game.
Poor competition from most of the rest of the AFC has meant that the Ravens are only one spot out of the second wildcard slot despite having an unimpressive 4-5 record. The sad thing is that the Ravens could easily be 6-3 right now if they had simply kicked one more field goal in their games against the Bears and Titans, but they can't rewrite the past. Instead, this team can show that it's good enough to make second half adjustments and perform every week the way it did against the Bengals, Browns, Raiders, and Dolphins. Fortunately for the Ravens, they're not nearly the only team suffering from catastrophic losses this season. The Colts, Texans, and Packers have all lost their dynamic starting quarterbacks to season-ending injuries, and all three teams have done quite a bit of losing for weeks. Baltimore is also staring down games against such non-competitive teams as the Browns and Bengals. The Lions and Steelers present far greater challenges for Joe and the boys, but it may not be necessary to beat either team to secure a wildcard playoff berth. I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility for the Ravens to beat the Lions in Baltimore since dome teams often struggle in cold outdoor environments such as Baltimore in December, but they simply must take care of business against the comparatively weak remaining teams to reach 9 wins and a likely playoff spot.
You might be asking why it is that only 9 games could very well land the Ravens a place in the post-season. Both the Titans and Jaguars have 6 wins already. Jacksonville is 6-3, and Tennessee is 6-4. Both teams own head to head wins against the Ravens, and both teams have favorable enough remaining schedules to easily win 9-10 games. The Jaguars have games remaining against such weak opponents as the Browns, Colts, 49ers, Cardinals, and Texans. The thing is that the Jaguars would only need 9 wins to beat out the Ravens for a wildcard spot because they own a head-to-head victory from Week 3. The Titans also own a tie-breaker over the Ravens with a head-to-head victory, and they, like the Jaguars, have remaining games against the Colts, Texans, Cardinals, and 49ers. I would estimate that the odds are incredibly high that both 6-win teams will earn a playoff spot, but the question is which will win the AFC South division and which will likely be relegated to the 5th playoff spot. Either way the Ravens will likely be vying for the 6th and final playoff spot, and the team challenging them for it is the Buffalo Bills...who just benched their starting quarterback for a backup.
Tyrod Taylor hasn't looked particularly impressive as of late as the Bills have lost their last two games by rather embarrassing margins to the Jets and Saints. To make matters worse, Taylor has been benched in favor of his backup. The Bills obviously hope that switching to a different passer will spark some offense for the first time in weeks, but a large part of Buffalo's ability to move the ball is due to Tyrod Taylor's mobility and ability to run and extend plays. The Chargers aren't likely going to the playoffs, but they have some impressive pass rushers such as Joey Bosa, and it's always difficult to go all the way across the country--especially when this with their backup quarterback's limited level of experience. It doesn't get a whole lot easier for the Bills as they then travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs. The Bills then have two games remaining against the Patriots and two more games against their divisional rival Dolphins. The Bills do have one game remaining against an opponent whose starting quarterback will not be back this season, but beyond that, it's difficult to see them winning more than 2 of their remaining games. Let's assume that the Chargers and Chiefs beat Buffalo, and then the Patriots sweep them while the Dolphins split with them. Hell, even if the Bills sweep the Dolphins and beat up on the Colts, they'll only finish the season with 8 wins. If the Bills continue to stick with a backup quarterback, I believe they'll finish with only 7 wins.
There actually is a significant chance that, because the of the low level of competition in the AFC for the wildcard spot, an 8-8 team might just make it in. Let's hope the Ravens cover their bases with 9+ total wins, but anyway they can get into the playoffs is just fine with me. Now there's just the matter of beating the teams they should beat; that's often easier said than done in the NFL.
WEEK 11 PICKS
LIONS AT BEARS- It's difficult to know which Bears team will show up on Sunday, but the Lions have done quite well on the road with a 3-1 record in games outside of Detroit. The Bears are 3-6 will a few surprise wins, but they're also only 2-3 at home. LIONS 24-20
JAGUARS AT BROWNS- Guess who's probably in line for a first overall piiiiiiick. That's right, the worst team in the history of time! JAGUARS 34-13
BUCCANEERS AT DOLPHINS- The Dolphins should be able to manage a win over the Bucs with Jameis Winston sitting out because of a shoulder injury. Certainly doesn't help that Rey Maualuga was just cut because of a misdemeanor assault charge a few days ago, but Miami should be able to win this. DOLPHINS 21-17
RAMS AT VIKINGS- This is the best matchup of the week with two 7-2 teams. The Rams are on a 4 game winning streak, and they've won 6 of their last 7. The Vikings have won 6 of THEIR last 7 games despite the loss of their talented young RB, Dalvin Cook, earlier this season. The Rams are 4-0 on the road, and the Vikings are 4-1 at home. This is such a close matchup that the Vikings are only favored by 1.5 points. It's difficult, however, for me to see the Vikings, who will be without a starting defensive end and safety, stopping a rather ferocious Rams offense that has averaged 32.85 points per game over the last 7 contests and even managed to score 27 against the vaunted Jaguars D. The Rams are the healthier, more complete team going into this. RAMS 30-24
REDSKINS AT SAINTS- The Saints might actually be the most dangerous team in the league. They haven't lost a game since Week 2. Good luck, Redskins. SAINTS 38-21
CHIEFS AT GIANTS- The Chiefs are good at football...the Giants? Not so much. CHIEFS 28-14
CARDINALS AT TEXANS- The Cardinals will be starting Blaine Gabbert at QB today. It'll be nice for the Texans to get a rare win without Deshaun Watson. TEXANS 27-23
BILLS AT CHARGERS- The Chargers are a decent team that has been the victim of one of the toughest schedules in the NFL up to this point. The Bills will be starting a backup QB after a cross country flight. CHARGERS 31-17
BENGALS AT BRONCOS- Too many people thought of the Bengals as being incredibly talented going into the last two seasons just because their minds immediately think of A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert. What made the Bengals so talented several years ago was the combination of Green, Eifert, Sanu, and Marvin Jones. Green by himself simply isn't enough to take over a game. If the Bengals lose this game today, their chance at a playoff berth is nearly zero. They would be wise to pack it in and play for a top 5 draft pick. The Bengals have won only a single game on the road this season despite hanging tough against some decent opponents. The Broncos have done just as poorly, but they'll have homefield advantage today. The Broncos have lost 5 straight games, but they're 3-2 at home and the Bengals are, as mentioned earlier, 1-4 on the road. BRONCOS 24-21
PATRIOTS AT RAIDERS- The Raiders don't have nearly enough in the way of defense to stop Tom Brady...who happens to be the league's leader in passing yards right now. PATRIOTS 34-21
EAGLES AT COWBOYS- The Eagles appear to be the best, most complete team in the league. The Cowboys won't have Ezekiel Elliot for the next 6 games. EAGLES 33-23
FALCONS AT SEAHAWKS- The Falcons haven't been great this season, but they've won 2 of their last 3 games and will be playing a Seahawks secondary without most of its Legion of Boom. Russell Wilson, however, is having a career year from an offensive standpoint. One might say that the Seahawks won't have the defense to stop the Falcons, but I don't believe the Falcons have the defense to stop the Seahawks. SEAHAWKS 28-21
RAVENS AT PACKERS- The prospect of playing in Green Bay in mid November without Ronnie Stanley scares the bejesus out of me, but the Packers are simply too offensively banged up to challenge this Ravens secondary. The fact that the Packers won't have much to use in the running game will mean that Baltimore will be able to pin their ears back and get after a fairly talented, but inexperienced rookie quarterback. The Ravens haven't won many games, but when they've beaten teams this year, they've absolutely destroyed them. RAVENS 31-13
IF THE RAVENS ARE GOING TO MAKE A RUN AT THE PLAYOFFS, THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A WEAK SECOND HALF SCHEDULE AND BEAT THE WOUNDED TEAMS THAT THEY'RE SUPPOSED TO BEAT. IF THEY CAN'T DO THAT TODAY, THEY'RE NOT OFFICIALLY ELIMINATED FROM CONTENTION, BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE THEY CAN WIN MUCH GOING FORWARD. THIS IS NEARLY AS HEALTHY AND RESTED AS THEY'VE BEEN, AND THEY'RE FACING ARGUABLY THE MOST BROKEN TEAM IN THE LEAGUE.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
The Ravens went through a 4 game losing streak during the 2016 season that directly corresponded with the timing of Ronnie Stanley's foot injury. The elite left tackle has performed at a Pro Bowl level this season, and it's difficult to assume his absence won't have just as profound an impact this season, if not more. Stanley exited the Ravens-Titans game late in the 4th quarter with what turned out to be a concussion. Despite his presence at practice all week, the former 6th overall pick will almost certainly not play in Green Bay on Sunday as his status was listed as doubtful. That reportedly will mean the Ravens will slide James Hurst to left tackle and plug in a backup at left guard. Many of you might remember James Hurst from such magical moments as getting bull-rushed into Joe Flacco's knee causing a season-ending ACL tear. I understand that Hurst has bulked up and improved overall this season, but it's difficult to imagine he'll replace a top 5 left tackle in the league on short notice.
If the Ravens are to win on the road this week, they're going to have to utilize their weapons properly for the first time this season. That means connecting with Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace on intermediate and deep routes, feeding Alex Collins the football 17-20 times, involving Nick Boyle and Ben Watson in the passing attack, and unleashing Danny Woodhead as a pass-catching back/slot receiver. Woodhead, if he can stay healthy, might just be the key to the Ravens' offensive woes. He gets open fast, catches nearly everything thrown his way, and makes defenders miss for fantastic yards after the catch. Woodhead's ability to get open almost immediately will help Flacco to get the ball out of his hands quickly and mitigate potential damage caused by Ronnie Stanley's absence.
Green Bay's defense isn't exactly daunting with a 22nd ranking in average yards allowed per game. The Ravens, by contrast, boast the NFL's 5 ranked defense, and they've put up some absolutely suffocating performances this season. It's tough to imagine that a rested Ravens defense wouldn't absolutely feast on a backup quarterback who won't enjoy the company of either of his top two running backs or his starting left tackle, but the defense can only do so much. In games where the offense can't sustain and finish drives, the Ravens defense finds itself on the field for far too much time, and ultimately opposing teams find ways to put up enough points to edge Baltimore. The Bears and Titans, for example, beat the Ravens because Baltimore simply couldn't make anything happen offensively in the first half of either game.
Poor competition from most of the rest of the AFC has meant that the Ravens are only one spot out of the second wildcard slot despite having an unimpressive 4-5 record. The sad thing is that the Ravens could easily be 6-3 right now if they had simply kicked one more field goal in their games against the Bears and Titans, but they can't rewrite the past. Instead, this team can show that it's good enough to make second half adjustments and perform every week the way it did against the Bengals, Browns, Raiders, and Dolphins. Fortunately for the Ravens, they're not nearly the only team suffering from catastrophic losses this season. The Colts, Texans, and Packers have all lost their dynamic starting quarterbacks to season-ending injuries, and all three teams have done quite a bit of losing for weeks. Baltimore is also staring down games against such non-competitive teams as the Browns and Bengals. The Lions and Steelers present far greater challenges for Joe and the boys, but it may not be necessary to beat either team to secure a wildcard playoff berth. I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility for the Ravens to beat the Lions in Baltimore since dome teams often struggle in cold outdoor environments such as Baltimore in December, but they simply must take care of business against the comparatively weak remaining teams to reach 9 wins and a likely playoff spot.
You might be asking why it is that only 9 games could very well land the Ravens a place in the post-season. Both the Titans and Jaguars have 6 wins already. Jacksonville is 6-3, and Tennessee is 6-4. Both teams own head to head wins against the Ravens, and both teams have favorable enough remaining schedules to easily win 9-10 games. The Jaguars have games remaining against such weak opponents as the Browns, Colts, 49ers, Cardinals, and Texans. The thing is that the Jaguars would only need 9 wins to beat out the Ravens for a wildcard spot because they own a head-to-head victory from Week 3. The Titans also own a tie-breaker over the Ravens with a head-to-head victory, and they, like the Jaguars, have remaining games against the Colts, Texans, Cardinals, and 49ers. I would estimate that the odds are incredibly high that both 6-win teams will earn a playoff spot, but the question is which will win the AFC South division and which will likely be relegated to the 5th playoff spot. Either way the Ravens will likely be vying for the 6th and final playoff spot, and the team challenging them for it is the Buffalo Bills...who just benched their starting quarterback for a backup.
Tyrod Taylor hasn't looked particularly impressive as of late as the Bills have lost their last two games by rather embarrassing margins to the Jets and Saints. To make matters worse, Taylor has been benched in favor of his backup. The Bills obviously hope that switching to a different passer will spark some offense for the first time in weeks, but a large part of Buffalo's ability to move the ball is due to Tyrod Taylor's mobility and ability to run and extend plays. The Chargers aren't likely going to the playoffs, but they have some impressive pass rushers such as Joey Bosa, and it's always difficult to go all the way across the country--especially when this with their backup quarterback's limited level of experience. It doesn't get a whole lot easier for the Bills as they then travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs. The Bills then have two games remaining against the Patriots and two more games against their divisional rival Dolphins. The Bills do have one game remaining against an opponent whose starting quarterback will not be back this season, but beyond that, it's difficult to see them winning more than 2 of their remaining games. Let's assume that the Chargers and Chiefs beat Buffalo, and then the Patriots sweep them while the Dolphins split with them. Hell, even if the Bills sweep the Dolphins and beat up on the Colts, they'll only finish the season with 8 wins. If the Bills continue to stick with a backup quarterback, I believe they'll finish with only 7 wins.
There actually is a significant chance that, because the of the low level of competition in the AFC for the wildcard spot, an 8-8 team might just make it in. Let's hope the Ravens cover their bases with 9+ total wins, but anyway they can get into the playoffs is just fine with me. Now there's just the matter of beating the teams they should beat; that's often easier said than done in the NFL.
WEEK 11 PICKS
LIONS AT BEARS- It's difficult to know which Bears team will show up on Sunday, but the Lions have done quite well on the road with a 3-1 record in games outside of Detroit. The Bears are 3-6 will a few surprise wins, but they're also only 2-3 at home. LIONS 24-20
JAGUARS AT BROWNS- Guess who's probably in line for a first overall piiiiiiick. That's right, the worst team in the history of time! JAGUARS 34-13
BUCCANEERS AT DOLPHINS- The Dolphins should be able to manage a win over the Bucs with Jameis Winston sitting out because of a shoulder injury. Certainly doesn't help that Rey Maualuga was just cut because of a misdemeanor assault charge a few days ago, but Miami should be able to win this. DOLPHINS 21-17
RAMS AT VIKINGS- This is the best matchup of the week with two 7-2 teams. The Rams are on a 4 game winning streak, and they've won 6 of their last 7. The Vikings have won 6 of THEIR last 7 games despite the loss of their talented young RB, Dalvin Cook, earlier this season. The Rams are 4-0 on the road, and the Vikings are 4-1 at home. This is such a close matchup that the Vikings are only favored by 1.5 points. It's difficult, however, for me to see the Vikings, who will be without a starting defensive end and safety, stopping a rather ferocious Rams offense that has averaged 32.85 points per game over the last 7 contests and even managed to score 27 against the vaunted Jaguars D. The Rams are the healthier, more complete team going into this. RAMS 30-24
REDSKINS AT SAINTS- The Saints might actually be the most dangerous team in the league. They haven't lost a game since Week 2. Good luck, Redskins. SAINTS 38-21
CHIEFS AT GIANTS- The Chiefs are good at football...the Giants? Not so much. CHIEFS 28-14
CARDINALS AT TEXANS- The Cardinals will be starting Blaine Gabbert at QB today. It'll be nice for the Texans to get a rare win without Deshaun Watson. TEXANS 27-23
BILLS AT CHARGERS- The Chargers are a decent team that has been the victim of one of the toughest schedules in the NFL up to this point. The Bills will be starting a backup QB after a cross country flight. CHARGERS 31-17
BENGALS AT BRONCOS- Too many people thought of the Bengals as being incredibly talented going into the last two seasons just because their minds immediately think of A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert. What made the Bengals so talented several years ago was the combination of Green, Eifert, Sanu, and Marvin Jones. Green by himself simply isn't enough to take over a game. If the Bengals lose this game today, their chance at a playoff berth is nearly zero. They would be wise to pack it in and play for a top 5 draft pick. The Bengals have won only a single game on the road this season despite hanging tough against some decent opponents. The Broncos have done just as poorly, but they'll have homefield advantage today. The Broncos have lost 5 straight games, but they're 3-2 at home and the Bengals are, as mentioned earlier, 1-4 on the road. BRONCOS 24-21
PATRIOTS AT RAIDERS- The Raiders don't have nearly enough in the way of defense to stop Tom Brady...who happens to be the league's leader in passing yards right now. PATRIOTS 34-21
EAGLES AT COWBOYS- The Eagles appear to be the best, most complete team in the league. The Cowboys won't have Ezekiel Elliot for the next 6 games. EAGLES 33-23
FALCONS AT SEAHAWKS- The Falcons haven't been great this season, but they've won 2 of their last 3 games and will be playing a Seahawks secondary without most of its Legion of Boom. Russell Wilson, however, is having a career year from an offensive standpoint. One might say that the Seahawks won't have the defense to stop the Falcons, but I don't believe the Falcons have the defense to stop the Seahawks. SEAHAWKS 28-21
RAVENS AT PACKERS- The prospect of playing in Green Bay in mid November without Ronnie Stanley scares the bejesus out of me, but the Packers are simply too offensively banged up to challenge this Ravens secondary. The fact that the Packers won't have much to use in the running game will mean that Baltimore will be able to pin their ears back and get after a fairly talented, but inexperienced rookie quarterback. The Ravens haven't won many games, but when they've beaten teams this year, they've absolutely destroyed them. RAVENS 31-13
IF THE RAVENS ARE GOING TO MAKE A RUN AT THE PLAYOFFS, THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A WEAK SECOND HALF SCHEDULE AND BEAT THE WOUNDED TEAMS THAT THEY'RE SUPPOSED TO BEAT. IF THEY CAN'T DO THAT TODAY, THEY'RE NOT OFFICIALLY ELIMINATED FROM CONTENTION, BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE THEY CAN WIN MUCH GOING FORWARD. THIS IS NEARLY AS HEALTHY AND RESTED AS THEY'VE BEEN, AND THEY'RE FACING ARGUABLY THE MOST BROKEN TEAM IN THE LEAGUE.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, November 12, 2017
RAVENS BYE WEEK BREAKDOWN
The formula for success in the NFL is markedly different than many may perceive. Because of the rather restrictive salary cap there are essentially two ways to win a Super Bowl. The first way is to be the Patriots. Sure, the Patriots went through a 10 year Super Bowl drought, but they've won 5 Lombardi trophies in a decade and a half. The Steelers amassed 5 Super Bowl wins in 31 years, and the Dallas Cowboys won 5 over the course of a 24 year period. Only the 49ers have won 5 titles in less time, and they won most of those in an era where it was possible to keep the core of a team together for longer periods of time because free agency only took effect in the NFL a year before the 49ers won their last Super Bowl. For all teams NOT named the Patriots, a different formula for winning the Super Bowl has taken form over the past decade.
You've undoubtedly heard that the NFL is a "pass driven league" over the course of the last decade. Defensive rules have been altered with the aim of protecting "defenseless receivers", which has, thus, given pass-catchers a greater chance of securing the football. Old passing statistics from even Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks have become pedestrian in comparison to the numbers generated by many of the league's present day gunslingers. It is for this reason that teams decided that a "franchise quarterback" was essential to hoisting a trophy at the end of the season. There's no question that the league's top quarterbacks tend to win a lot of games, but many of the league's top statistical quarterbacks have only won a single title at most. Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers have, for example, put up absolutely spectacular passing statistics, but neither has managed to get back to the big game since the end of the last decade and the beginning of this one, respectively. What do both of these men have in common other than being unquestionably elite? They both signed massive contracts in the years following their Super Bowl wins.
Since securing respective league-leading contracts, Brees and Rodgers have each found themselves leading incomplete teams. Both the Saints and Packers have fallen off sharply from a defensive standpoint since their respective Super Bowl victories, and gaudy passing numbers alone tend not to carry a team to consistent post-season victories. A high level of passing yards can, in fact, be an indication that a team is playing from behind in games on a frequent basis. Last season, for example, Joe Flacco threw for a career high 4300+ passing yards, and the Ravens failed to make the playoffs. Joe Flacco's most successful seasons featured passing yard totals below 4000--they also featured Joe Flacco with a manageable salary cap number.
Joe Flacco was, at one point, an integral cog in a fairly efficient post-season machine. He lacked the elite field general ability to run his own offense with fire and intensity seen in such legends of the last 20 years as Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, but he possessed an incredibly strong arm and an elite level of emotional unflappability at critical times and in harsh environments. While Flacco was on his rookie contract, fans got comfortable with the idea that, while he wouldn't always play perfectly in the regular season, and while there were certain teams against which he routinely struggled, Joe Cool would rise to the occasion and never exit a post-season without at least one win. That success came to a crescendo as he proudly hoisted a Lombardi over his head and chuckled at all the doubters who said he'd never ascend to that point. Then he got paid. Joe Flacco didn't just get paid, he got the biggest contract in NFL history up to that point. It seemed to make sense at the time. Flacco had, after all, won Super Bowl MVP and made himself the winningest road quarterback in NFL history. He deserved a long term deal, but not nearly as much money as he received.
The concept that the market determines the next big contract is an unfortunate inevitability in a league that restricts so heavily the piece of the overall NFL cash pie that each team can pay its players. Paying Flacco 120 million dollars, for example, pushed the Ravens into a mindset where they felt the need to jettison players such as Boldin who deserved every penny of the salary he earned in his final season as a Raven. It quickly became clear following the post-Super Bowl departure of Reed, Boldin, and Pollard that the Ravens incorrectly assessed what it takes Joe Flacco to be successful. Joe requires a strong supporting cast of characters to be successful, and he needs an offensive system that both fits his strengths and features a strong rushing attack to help take pressure off of him. The Ravens have most certainly NOT provided Flacco with a consistent offensive coordinator or system, and they haven't had a truly elite complimentary offensive weapon on the roster since Ray Rice.
The Ravens have managed to give big contracts to such important players as Brandon Williams, Marshal Yanda, and Jimmy Smith in recently years, but because of the combination of those contracts and the league-leading cap number of Flacco, Baltimore has been forced to settle for signing bargain offensive free agent weapons. They look for formerly elite receivers north of 30 years old and running backs cut from other teams such as Justin Forsett and Alex Collins. Long gone are the days where the Ravens would pick a running back in the first or second round such as Jamal Lewis or Ray Rice. That isn't to say the Ravens haven't picked extremely well in the first round of the last two drafts with Ronnie Stanley and Marlon Humphrey, but you don't see any Ravens jerseys selling out of the stores right now.
If you haven't already sensed an overall theme, I'll make it abundantly clear: if your team isn't the Patriots, the best way to get to the Super Bowl is with a young talented quarterback still on his rookie contract. Russell Wilson went to two Super Bowls in recent years because he's talented, but also because he had not yet received a massive deal. Since receiving that deal, his team isn't nearly the same force it was only a few years ago. The same goes, of course, for Joe Flacco. Hell, some teams skipped over that point entirely because the supporting cast for their currently overpaid quarterback was never where it needed to be while he was still on his rookie deal. Both Matthew Stafford and Andrew Luck have, through their massive contracts, crippled their teams' ability to improve to a level necessary to achieve serious post-season success. That doesn't mean a team can't pay its franchise quarterback, but it does mean that teams must give a true evaluation of what exactly their quarterback is worth and not simply bend to the will of a market that dictates that essentially every next big quarterback contract will be the biggest in history. After all, the Ravens took a lanky rookie to the AFC championship in 2008 because the rest of their team was absolutely loaded with talent.
Baltimore is stuck with Joe Flacco contractually at least through next season. I don't believe they should stick with Marty Mornhinweg as offensive coordinator unless he's able to architect some incredible second half offensive turn-around. I do, however, believe they're one offensive coordinator and one or two offensive weapons away from being an extremely good team. Getting Marshal Yanda and Alex Lewis back next year will immediately turn the offensive line into an elite unit considering that their tackles and center are currently performing at high levels. They'll have Jeremy Maclin as a quality veteran receiver, and the defense is saturated with playmakers and will only get better as young pass rushers such as Tyus Bowser develop into dominant players. Getting Tavon Young back will help turn the Ravens secondary into what I believe will be the unquestioned best unit in the league next season, and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw the younger players rally around Terrell Suggs in what I believe will be the very last year of his brilliant career.
As for the rest of the 2017 season, I'll be curious to see just what kind of adjustments the Ravens can make coming out of the bye week. The long anticipated return of Danny Woodhead should make things interesting considering how impressive he looked in the brief glimpse fans were given on the first drive of the season. The comparative weakness of the remaining schedule along with major injuries to quarterbacks and key players on remaining opponents means the Ravens have a legitimate shot to win nearly every game that lies before them. Will they do so? It would appear the answer is no, but no one is doing well enough in the AFC that a post-season berth is totally out of reach for Baltimore at this point. The Steelers are 6-2, but as we speak they are losing to the lowly Colts with injuries piling up to such key players as Joe Haden and Vance McDonald. The Patriots are 6-2, but they've escaped a good number of games by the skin of their teeth. Realistically, as poorly as the Ravens have done, they're still only two wins behind the best teams in the conference.
I am encouraged by the rise of Alex Collins as a premier starting running back with excellent lateral movement, great burst, and the ability to break off long runs. If the Ravens are able to put together string of wins after the bye week, he'll likely be a big reason why. He's the type of running back who would have an incredible year in Gary Kubiak's offense. As far as I know, Kubiak still hasn't signed a contract with another team, so let's hope that Steve Bisciotti has established some kind of dialogue with him. The Ravens had the greatest offensive production in team history under Gary, and it would be silly not to make a serious push to bring him back for next season.
Instead of throwing things at the T.V. out of frustration if the Ravens can't make it back to the playoffs, let's just accept that this season's injuries have made a rough start nearly inevitable, and keep our expectations tempered going forward. The answer to fixing this team isn't to fire the entire coaching staff and the general manager, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some major changes within the next season or two if things aren't corrected. Let's just try to enjoy the remainder of the NFL season and be pleasantly surprised if the birds of Baltimore surprise us by turning the season around. For now, just kick back, relax, and enjoy watching the rest of the teams destroying one another.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
You've undoubtedly heard that the NFL is a "pass driven league" over the course of the last decade. Defensive rules have been altered with the aim of protecting "defenseless receivers", which has, thus, given pass-catchers a greater chance of securing the football. Old passing statistics from even Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks have become pedestrian in comparison to the numbers generated by many of the league's present day gunslingers. It is for this reason that teams decided that a "franchise quarterback" was essential to hoisting a trophy at the end of the season. There's no question that the league's top quarterbacks tend to win a lot of games, but many of the league's top statistical quarterbacks have only won a single title at most. Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers have, for example, put up absolutely spectacular passing statistics, but neither has managed to get back to the big game since the end of the last decade and the beginning of this one, respectively. What do both of these men have in common other than being unquestionably elite? They both signed massive contracts in the years following their Super Bowl wins.
Since securing respective league-leading contracts, Brees and Rodgers have each found themselves leading incomplete teams. Both the Saints and Packers have fallen off sharply from a defensive standpoint since their respective Super Bowl victories, and gaudy passing numbers alone tend not to carry a team to consistent post-season victories. A high level of passing yards can, in fact, be an indication that a team is playing from behind in games on a frequent basis. Last season, for example, Joe Flacco threw for a career high 4300+ passing yards, and the Ravens failed to make the playoffs. Joe Flacco's most successful seasons featured passing yard totals below 4000--they also featured Joe Flacco with a manageable salary cap number.
Joe Flacco was, at one point, an integral cog in a fairly efficient post-season machine. He lacked the elite field general ability to run his own offense with fire and intensity seen in such legends of the last 20 years as Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, but he possessed an incredibly strong arm and an elite level of emotional unflappability at critical times and in harsh environments. While Flacco was on his rookie contract, fans got comfortable with the idea that, while he wouldn't always play perfectly in the regular season, and while there were certain teams against which he routinely struggled, Joe Cool would rise to the occasion and never exit a post-season without at least one win. That success came to a crescendo as he proudly hoisted a Lombardi over his head and chuckled at all the doubters who said he'd never ascend to that point. Then he got paid. Joe Flacco didn't just get paid, he got the biggest contract in NFL history up to that point. It seemed to make sense at the time. Flacco had, after all, won Super Bowl MVP and made himself the winningest road quarterback in NFL history. He deserved a long term deal, but not nearly as much money as he received.
The concept that the market determines the next big contract is an unfortunate inevitability in a league that restricts so heavily the piece of the overall NFL cash pie that each team can pay its players. Paying Flacco 120 million dollars, for example, pushed the Ravens into a mindset where they felt the need to jettison players such as Boldin who deserved every penny of the salary he earned in his final season as a Raven. It quickly became clear following the post-Super Bowl departure of Reed, Boldin, and Pollard that the Ravens incorrectly assessed what it takes Joe Flacco to be successful. Joe requires a strong supporting cast of characters to be successful, and he needs an offensive system that both fits his strengths and features a strong rushing attack to help take pressure off of him. The Ravens have most certainly NOT provided Flacco with a consistent offensive coordinator or system, and they haven't had a truly elite complimentary offensive weapon on the roster since Ray Rice.
The Ravens have managed to give big contracts to such important players as Brandon Williams, Marshal Yanda, and Jimmy Smith in recently years, but because of the combination of those contracts and the league-leading cap number of Flacco, Baltimore has been forced to settle for signing bargain offensive free agent weapons. They look for formerly elite receivers north of 30 years old and running backs cut from other teams such as Justin Forsett and Alex Collins. Long gone are the days where the Ravens would pick a running back in the first or second round such as Jamal Lewis or Ray Rice. That isn't to say the Ravens haven't picked extremely well in the first round of the last two drafts with Ronnie Stanley and Marlon Humphrey, but you don't see any Ravens jerseys selling out of the stores right now.
If you haven't already sensed an overall theme, I'll make it abundantly clear: if your team isn't the Patriots, the best way to get to the Super Bowl is with a young talented quarterback still on his rookie contract. Russell Wilson went to two Super Bowls in recent years because he's talented, but also because he had not yet received a massive deal. Since receiving that deal, his team isn't nearly the same force it was only a few years ago. The same goes, of course, for Joe Flacco. Hell, some teams skipped over that point entirely because the supporting cast for their currently overpaid quarterback was never where it needed to be while he was still on his rookie deal. Both Matthew Stafford and Andrew Luck have, through their massive contracts, crippled their teams' ability to improve to a level necessary to achieve serious post-season success. That doesn't mean a team can't pay its franchise quarterback, but it does mean that teams must give a true evaluation of what exactly their quarterback is worth and not simply bend to the will of a market that dictates that essentially every next big quarterback contract will be the biggest in history. After all, the Ravens took a lanky rookie to the AFC championship in 2008 because the rest of their team was absolutely loaded with talent.
Baltimore is stuck with Joe Flacco contractually at least through next season. I don't believe they should stick with Marty Mornhinweg as offensive coordinator unless he's able to architect some incredible second half offensive turn-around. I do, however, believe they're one offensive coordinator and one or two offensive weapons away from being an extremely good team. Getting Marshal Yanda and Alex Lewis back next year will immediately turn the offensive line into an elite unit considering that their tackles and center are currently performing at high levels. They'll have Jeremy Maclin as a quality veteran receiver, and the defense is saturated with playmakers and will only get better as young pass rushers such as Tyus Bowser develop into dominant players. Getting Tavon Young back will help turn the Ravens secondary into what I believe will be the unquestioned best unit in the league next season, and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw the younger players rally around Terrell Suggs in what I believe will be the very last year of his brilliant career.
As for the rest of the 2017 season, I'll be curious to see just what kind of adjustments the Ravens can make coming out of the bye week. The long anticipated return of Danny Woodhead should make things interesting considering how impressive he looked in the brief glimpse fans were given on the first drive of the season. The comparative weakness of the remaining schedule along with major injuries to quarterbacks and key players on remaining opponents means the Ravens have a legitimate shot to win nearly every game that lies before them. Will they do so? It would appear the answer is no, but no one is doing well enough in the AFC that a post-season berth is totally out of reach for Baltimore at this point. The Steelers are 6-2, but as we speak they are losing to the lowly Colts with injuries piling up to such key players as Joe Haden and Vance McDonald. The Patriots are 6-2, but they've escaped a good number of games by the skin of their teeth. Realistically, as poorly as the Ravens have done, they're still only two wins behind the best teams in the conference.
I am encouraged by the rise of Alex Collins as a premier starting running back with excellent lateral movement, great burst, and the ability to break off long runs. If the Ravens are able to put together string of wins after the bye week, he'll likely be a big reason why. He's the type of running back who would have an incredible year in Gary Kubiak's offense. As far as I know, Kubiak still hasn't signed a contract with another team, so let's hope that Steve Bisciotti has established some kind of dialogue with him. The Ravens had the greatest offensive production in team history under Gary, and it would be silly not to make a serious push to bring him back for next season.
Instead of throwing things at the T.V. out of frustration if the Ravens can't make it back to the playoffs, let's just accept that this season's injuries have made a rough start nearly inevitable, and keep our expectations tempered going forward. The answer to fixing this team isn't to fire the entire coaching staff and the general manager, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some major changes within the next season or two if things aren't corrected. Let's just try to enjoy the remainder of the NFL season and be pleasantly surprised if the birds of Baltimore surprise us by turning the season around. For now, just kick back, relax, and enjoy watching the rest of the teams destroying one another.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, November 5, 2017
WEEK 9 NFL PREDICTIONS AND RAVENS MIDSEASON ANALYSIS
A 4-4 record wouldn't ordinarily give fans much confidence in their favorite team's odds of making the playoffs. A perplexing blowout loss to the Jaguars and an emotionally draining home loss to the Bears left many Ravens fans feeling as though the season was lost before it was even half way over. Many proclaimed Harbaugh and his staff to be the main reasons for Baltimore's struggles, and there is likely at least some truth to that theory. Available player personnel, however, has been a far greater factor on a week to week basis, and one has but to compare the injury reports from wins and losses to see just how profoundly missing starters impacted the outcomes.
The Ravens began the regular season on quite a tear with two impressive wins in which the Ravens demonstrated dominance in the running game and defense. The preseason saw injuries to impact starters such as Kenneth Dixon, Tavon Young, Crocket Gillmore, and most notably Joe Flacco. Sadly, the injury bug crept into the regular season almost immediately as Danny Woodhead injured his hamstring near the end of the first offensive drive of the season--a drive in which he was the most critical offensive weapon. During that single drive, though, Ravens fans and coaches alike got a glimpse of how easily the Ravens were able to methodically move the down the field with Woodhead lined up in the slot and as a running back catching passes out of the backfield. One has to wonder how many more drives the Ravens would have been able to complete with a healthy Woodhead over the course of this season. Well fans in Baltimore won't have to wait much longer to find out as Woodhead is on pace to return in just over two weeks against the Packers and following the bye week.
Arguably the greatest personnel losses of the season were not of skills positions. Starting left guard, Alex Lewis, was lost during the off-season and potential future Hall-of-Famer starting right guard, Marshal Yanda, went on injured reserve after the second game. Luckily for the Ravens, they had an improved James Hurst to plug in at left guard, but Yanda left a far greater void on the right side. Baltimore gave time to journeyman Tony Bergstrom, but the coaches were apparently not impressed as he was benched and then cut. Matt Skura then stepped in and gave shaky performances against the Jaguars and Steelers, but began to improve before becoming injured. British-born draft pick, Jermaine Eluemunor, stepped in for Skura and struggled--oh boy did he struggle. It wasn't until Skura returned from injury that the Ravens solidified the right side with a ferociously dominant win over the Dolphins just over a week ago, but one has to assume the Ravens offense would not have looked so incredibly hapless in losses if either Lewis or Yanda had stayed healthy...but that's football.
I expected SOMETHING to be done for the right guard position before the trade deadline last week, but a lack of salary cap space prevented the Ravens from acquiring the likes of the Texans Pro Bowl left tackle Duane Brown who was ultimately traded to the Seahawks instead. Brown could have been plugged in at right guard to form a monstrous duo on the right side along with giant starting right tackle Austin Howard. The Ravens are, thus, stuck with Matt Skura until next season. That may not, however, be reason for panic as Skura appears to have improved with experience after being thrown into the fire this season.
The rest of the Ravens offensive line has actually been a bright spot as of late. Ronnie Stanley should go to his first Pro Bowl based on the way he's playing, and Austin Howard is not far behind as both a ranked in the top 5 at their respective positions. Ryan Jensen has been a truly pleasant surprise with his solidification as the presumptive center of the future for Baltimore. Jensen won the respect and admiration of fans (including this writer) with his Yanda-esque ferocity and explosive instinct to protect and stand up for his teammates when opponents take cheap shots. This is the type of guy the Ravens pine after, and he's only going to continue to improve with increased experience as a starter. Because of some excellent run-blocking, the Ravens rising star running back, Alex Collins, has produced a level and frequency of explosive plays not seen in a Ravens uniform since Ray Rice in his prime. Collins ranks 9th in the NFL in rushing yards despite no single game with 20+ carries, and the Ravens rank 7th in the league in rushing yards per game. Suffice it to say that Baltimore has fixed it's ground attack.
Fixing rushing production was a priority in the off-season, and the Raven have accomplished exactly that without investing a high draft pick on a big name running back. They also did so without their break-out 4th round pick from last season, Kenneth Dixon. The passing attack, however, has suffered to a bizarre degree. Joe Flacco is on pace for a career low in passing yards, and the Ravens starting receivers' production has been next to non-existent. Mike Wallace is coming off of a 1000+ yard season, and Jeremy Maclin had 1,318 receiving yards in 2014 and 1,088 receiving yards in 2015 before missing time because of an injury last season. Wallace is currently on pace for roughly 500 yards on the season, and Maclin is on pace for just over 400 yards. The emphasis on the running game as well as a desire to protect Joe Flacco following his summer back injury could be largely to blame for a lack of production with the wide receivers, but something still seems off considering Flacco threw for a career high of 4300+ passing yards last season.
Breshad Perriman may be the biggest mystery of all. He was heralded coming out of the off-season as the potential true #1 receiver with his blazing speed and size. To say the former first round pick has taken a step back would be the understatement of the year. Breshad Perriman has 4 catches and 26 receiving yards on the season--you read that correctly. Lest we forget, Perriman actually made some absolutely spectacular plays last season, and there was no reason to believe he WOULDN'T break out in 2017. Perriman made some absolutely brilliant contested jump ball catches. Take a look at his highlights from last season if you don't believe me:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmSCFkEWZhk
Some may assume this means that Perriman is a bust for a first round pick, and statistically there's little room to deny that, but when one takes into account the puzzlingly low production from the two other explosive proven receivers on the team, #11's near absence isn't quite as mysterious. There IS one rather intriguing possibility for the receivers in the second half of the season. It's impossible that literally all three of these speedy receivers become bad at football simultaneously. If the offensive coaching staff can make some tweaks over the bye week and the second half of the season, it's entirely possible that we could see an upswing in production from the fastest trio of starting Ravens receivers in team history, and the success of the rushing attack could help tremendously to open things up for them.
The Ravens may have to lean on their receivers a bit more today as the Titans boast the league's 9th ranked run defense going into today's game, while their pass defense ranks a far more modest 15th. The Dolphins had a top 10 ranked run defense too and the Ravens had great success on the ground against them, but the Dolphins' offensive struggles allowed the Ravens more opportunities for offensive drives. The Titans haven't been electric as of late with only a narrow overtime win over the lowly, winless Browns, but they're healthier and more well-rested coming off of a bye week. Marcus Mariota and first round pick receiver Corey Davis are the biggest beneficiaries of their week off as Davis will see his first meaningful time on the field in months, and Mariota will likely be more mobile after missing time with a knee injury. The Ravens will have to contain him and force turnovers if they hope to come away with a pivotal road win.
If the Ravens can beat the Titans, they enter the bye week 5-4 with reinforcements on the way. In addition to Danny Woodhead, Baltimore will see the return of starting nickel corner, Maurice Canady. Canady had an eye-popping training camp with 3 impressive picks before going down with an injury. His presence could help the Ravens vaunted secondary to ascend to an even higher level as Lardarius Webb has been picked on by opposing quarterbacks in coverage at numerous critical moments this season. Webb is still useful as a backup safety and as a blitzer coming off the edge, but Canady represents an upgrade in youthful athleticism and coverage ability at this point. Nickel is the had been the only weak point in Baltimore's secondary, and it's safe to say we'll see an uptick in the pass rush when opposing quarterbacks struggle to find open receivers quickly.
The arrow is pointing up for this Ravens team, and they're only two wins behind the best record in the AFC. Parity in the conference and all over the league has meant few teams have looked consistently and truly dominant. A wildcard berth is reasonably in the Ravens sights as they stare down a less challenging second-half schedule than the first half that contained 6 of the league's top defenses. Wins over the Colts, Browns, Texans, Bengals, and hopefully the Packers will get Baltimore to 9 victories which may be enough to secure a post-season spot. A showdown in Pittsburgh with a strong Steelers team could be tough, but nothing the Ravens haven't been able to do before. Don't lose faith, Ravens fans, things are just getting heated up!
WEEK 9 NFL PICKS
BUCCANEERS AT SAINTS- The Saints are on a friggin tear. Difficult to imagine they'll lose at home to a 2-win Tampa Bay team that's 0-3 on the road this season. SAINTS 27-17
RAMS AT GIANTS- The Rams are decent and the Giants are incredibly bad. This pick requires next to no brain power. RAMS 28-14
BRONCOS AT EAGLES- The Eagles have further bolstered their roster with Jay Ajayi. As if they needed the help right now. Meanwhile the Broncos are starting Brock Osweiler who doesn't offer any major upgrade over Trevor Siemian. EAGLES 31-10
FALCONS AT PANTHERS- I can't imagine why the Panthers would want to trade Kelvin Benjamin away, but I still like them at home over Falcons team struggling to keep its head above water. PANTHERS 24-21
BENGALS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars offense could have real trouble moving the ball without Leonard Fournette today. This could very easily, however, be one of those days where the Jags' defense gets 5 picks and humiliates the opposing QB. The weird thing is that the Jags have literally lost every other game they've played...and they won last week. This will be the day Jacksonville gets its first consecutive win of the season. JAGUARS 30-21
COLTS AT TEXANS- Both of these teams' seasons are presumably finished without their respective starting quarterbacks. The Texans still have more weapons and defensive clout, however, than the Colts, and in shutting down Andrew Luck for the season, the Colts appear to in a race to the bottom with the Browns to get the first overall pick in the 2018 draft. TEXANS 21-17
CARDINALS AT 49ERS- Cardinals are another team that, like the Jaguars, has alternated between brilliance and utter incompetence. Coming off of a bye week, however, I'm confident they'll find a way to edge a 49ers team that ranks near the bottom of the league in...everything. CARDINALS 27-23
REDSKINS AT SEAHAWKS- The Seahawks seem to always begin their season poorly, but as usual, they've rounded into playoff-caliber form by midseason once more. The Redskins are 3-4 on the season and 1-2 on the road. There's very little chance they go into Seattle and pull off and upset over a team that hasn't lost in over a month. SEAHAWKS 35-24
CHIEFS AT COWBOYS- The Chiefs are 3-1 on the road this season, and they face a formidable test this week against a Cowboys offense that still has the use of Ezekiel Elliot. The Chiefs are a more complete team, however, and it's tough to imagine they'll struggle to move the football on this Cowboys defense. This will be a good one though. CHIEFS 31-28
RAIDERS AT DOLPHINS- It's difficult to know what the Dolphins offense will look like without its biggest weapon now that Jay Ajayi is an Eagle. I might have predicted a Dolphins win here before he was traded away, but now I simply don't know how they plan to move the football. RAIIDERS 20-14
LIONS AT PACKERS- The Lions have dropped their last 3 games to decent teams, but they're still a more complete team than the Packers without Aaron Rodgers. Divisional familiarity will keep this one close. LIONS 23-17
RAVENS AT TITANS- The Titans are favored in this game, but they did little to inspire confidence with their overtime 12-9 win over the Browns in their last game. Marcus Mariota should be well rested, but so are the Ravens. The Ravens secondary matches up very well against the Titans receiving corps, and I can't see the Titans bottling up Alex Collins. RAVENS 24-16
THIS IS IT, RAVENS FANS. THE SECOND HALF OF THE SEASON IS HERE. THE WEATHER IS GETTING COLDER AND THERE'S NO TEAM THAT HEATS UP WHEN IT'S COLD OUT QUITE LIKE THE BALTIMORE RAVENS!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
The Ravens began the regular season on quite a tear with two impressive wins in which the Ravens demonstrated dominance in the running game and defense. The preseason saw injuries to impact starters such as Kenneth Dixon, Tavon Young, Crocket Gillmore, and most notably Joe Flacco. Sadly, the injury bug crept into the regular season almost immediately as Danny Woodhead injured his hamstring near the end of the first offensive drive of the season--a drive in which he was the most critical offensive weapon. During that single drive, though, Ravens fans and coaches alike got a glimpse of how easily the Ravens were able to methodically move the down the field with Woodhead lined up in the slot and as a running back catching passes out of the backfield. One has to wonder how many more drives the Ravens would have been able to complete with a healthy Woodhead over the course of this season. Well fans in Baltimore won't have to wait much longer to find out as Woodhead is on pace to return in just over two weeks against the Packers and following the bye week.
Arguably the greatest personnel losses of the season were not of skills positions. Starting left guard, Alex Lewis, was lost during the off-season and potential future Hall-of-Famer starting right guard, Marshal Yanda, went on injured reserve after the second game. Luckily for the Ravens, they had an improved James Hurst to plug in at left guard, but Yanda left a far greater void on the right side. Baltimore gave time to journeyman Tony Bergstrom, but the coaches were apparently not impressed as he was benched and then cut. Matt Skura then stepped in and gave shaky performances against the Jaguars and Steelers, but began to improve before becoming injured. British-born draft pick, Jermaine Eluemunor, stepped in for Skura and struggled--oh boy did he struggle. It wasn't until Skura returned from injury that the Ravens solidified the right side with a ferociously dominant win over the Dolphins just over a week ago, but one has to assume the Ravens offense would not have looked so incredibly hapless in losses if either Lewis or Yanda had stayed healthy...but that's football.
I expected SOMETHING to be done for the right guard position before the trade deadline last week, but a lack of salary cap space prevented the Ravens from acquiring the likes of the Texans Pro Bowl left tackle Duane Brown who was ultimately traded to the Seahawks instead. Brown could have been plugged in at right guard to form a monstrous duo on the right side along with giant starting right tackle Austin Howard. The Ravens are, thus, stuck with Matt Skura until next season. That may not, however, be reason for panic as Skura appears to have improved with experience after being thrown into the fire this season.
The rest of the Ravens offensive line has actually been a bright spot as of late. Ronnie Stanley should go to his first Pro Bowl based on the way he's playing, and Austin Howard is not far behind as both a ranked in the top 5 at their respective positions. Ryan Jensen has been a truly pleasant surprise with his solidification as the presumptive center of the future for Baltimore. Jensen won the respect and admiration of fans (including this writer) with his Yanda-esque ferocity and explosive instinct to protect and stand up for his teammates when opponents take cheap shots. This is the type of guy the Ravens pine after, and he's only going to continue to improve with increased experience as a starter. Because of some excellent run-blocking, the Ravens rising star running back, Alex Collins, has produced a level and frequency of explosive plays not seen in a Ravens uniform since Ray Rice in his prime. Collins ranks 9th in the NFL in rushing yards despite no single game with 20+ carries, and the Ravens rank 7th in the league in rushing yards per game. Suffice it to say that Baltimore has fixed it's ground attack.
Fixing rushing production was a priority in the off-season, and the Raven have accomplished exactly that without investing a high draft pick on a big name running back. They also did so without their break-out 4th round pick from last season, Kenneth Dixon. The passing attack, however, has suffered to a bizarre degree. Joe Flacco is on pace for a career low in passing yards, and the Ravens starting receivers' production has been next to non-existent. Mike Wallace is coming off of a 1000+ yard season, and Jeremy Maclin had 1,318 receiving yards in 2014 and 1,088 receiving yards in 2015 before missing time because of an injury last season. Wallace is currently on pace for roughly 500 yards on the season, and Maclin is on pace for just over 400 yards. The emphasis on the running game as well as a desire to protect Joe Flacco following his summer back injury could be largely to blame for a lack of production with the wide receivers, but something still seems off considering Flacco threw for a career high of 4300+ passing yards last season.
Breshad Perriman may be the biggest mystery of all. He was heralded coming out of the off-season as the potential true #1 receiver with his blazing speed and size. To say the former first round pick has taken a step back would be the understatement of the year. Breshad Perriman has 4 catches and 26 receiving yards on the season--you read that correctly. Lest we forget, Perriman actually made some absolutely spectacular plays last season, and there was no reason to believe he WOULDN'T break out in 2017. Perriman made some absolutely brilliant contested jump ball catches. Take a look at his highlights from last season if you don't believe me:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmSCFkEWZhk
Some may assume this means that Perriman is a bust for a first round pick, and statistically there's little room to deny that, but when one takes into account the puzzlingly low production from the two other explosive proven receivers on the team, #11's near absence isn't quite as mysterious. There IS one rather intriguing possibility for the receivers in the second half of the season. It's impossible that literally all three of these speedy receivers become bad at football simultaneously. If the offensive coaching staff can make some tweaks over the bye week and the second half of the season, it's entirely possible that we could see an upswing in production from the fastest trio of starting Ravens receivers in team history, and the success of the rushing attack could help tremendously to open things up for them.
The Ravens may have to lean on their receivers a bit more today as the Titans boast the league's 9th ranked run defense going into today's game, while their pass defense ranks a far more modest 15th. The Dolphins had a top 10 ranked run defense too and the Ravens had great success on the ground against them, but the Dolphins' offensive struggles allowed the Ravens more opportunities for offensive drives. The Titans haven't been electric as of late with only a narrow overtime win over the lowly, winless Browns, but they're healthier and more well-rested coming off of a bye week. Marcus Mariota and first round pick receiver Corey Davis are the biggest beneficiaries of their week off as Davis will see his first meaningful time on the field in months, and Mariota will likely be more mobile after missing time with a knee injury. The Ravens will have to contain him and force turnovers if they hope to come away with a pivotal road win.
If the Ravens can beat the Titans, they enter the bye week 5-4 with reinforcements on the way. In addition to Danny Woodhead, Baltimore will see the return of starting nickel corner, Maurice Canady. Canady had an eye-popping training camp with 3 impressive picks before going down with an injury. His presence could help the Ravens vaunted secondary to ascend to an even higher level as Lardarius Webb has been picked on by opposing quarterbacks in coverage at numerous critical moments this season. Webb is still useful as a backup safety and as a blitzer coming off the edge, but Canady represents an upgrade in youthful athleticism and coverage ability at this point. Nickel is the had been the only weak point in Baltimore's secondary, and it's safe to say we'll see an uptick in the pass rush when opposing quarterbacks struggle to find open receivers quickly.
The arrow is pointing up for this Ravens team, and they're only two wins behind the best record in the AFC. Parity in the conference and all over the league has meant few teams have looked consistently and truly dominant. A wildcard berth is reasonably in the Ravens sights as they stare down a less challenging second-half schedule than the first half that contained 6 of the league's top defenses. Wins over the Colts, Browns, Texans, Bengals, and hopefully the Packers will get Baltimore to 9 victories which may be enough to secure a post-season spot. A showdown in Pittsburgh with a strong Steelers team could be tough, but nothing the Ravens haven't been able to do before. Don't lose faith, Ravens fans, things are just getting heated up!
WEEK 9 NFL PICKS
BUCCANEERS AT SAINTS- The Saints are on a friggin tear. Difficult to imagine they'll lose at home to a 2-win Tampa Bay team that's 0-3 on the road this season. SAINTS 27-17
RAMS AT GIANTS- The Rams are decent and the Giants are incredibly bad. This pick requires next to no brain power. RAMS 28-14
BRONCOS AT EAGLES- The Eagles have further bolstered their roster with Jay Ajayi. As if they needed the help right now. Meanwhile the Broncos are starting Brock Osweiler who doesn't offer any major upgrade over Trevor Siemian. EAGLES 31-10
FALCONS AT PANTHERS- I can't imagine why the Panthers would want to trade Kelvin Benjamin away, but I still like them at home over Falcons team struggling to keep its head above water. PANTHERS 24-21
BENGALS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars offense could have real trouble moving the ball without Leonard Fournette today. This could very easily, however, be one of those days where the Jags' defense gets 5 picks and humiliates the opposing QB. The weird thing is that the Jags have literally lost every other game they've played...and they won last week. This will be the day Jacksonville gets its first consecutive win of the season. JAGUARS 30-21
COLTS AT TEXANS- Both of these teams' seasons are presumably finished without their respective starting quarterbacks. The Texans still have more weapons and defensive clout, however, than the Colts, and in shutting down Andrew Luck for the season, the Colts appear to in a race to the bottom with the Browns to get the first overall pick in the 2018 draft. TEXANS 21-17
CARDINALS AT 49ERS- Cardinals are another team that, like the Jaguars, has alternated between brilliance and utter incompetence. Coming off of a bye week, however, I'm confident they'll find a way to edge a 49ers team that ranks near the bottom of the league in...everything. CARDINALS 27-23
REDSKINS AT SEAHAWKS- The Seahawks seem to always begin their season poorly, but as usual, they've rounded into playoff-caliber form by midseason once more. The Redskins are 3-4 on the season and 1-2 on the road. There's very little chance they go into Seattle and pull off and upset over a team that hasn't lost in over a month. SEAHAWKS 35-24
CHIEFS AT COWBOYS- The Chiefs are 3-1 on the road this season, and they face a formidable test this week against a Cowboys offense that still has the use of Ezekiel Elliot. The Chiefs are a more complete team, however, and it's tough to imagine they'll struggle to move the football on this Cowboys defense. This will be a good one though. CHIEFS 31-28
RAIDERS AT DOLPHINS- It's difficult to know what the Dolphins offense will look like without its biggest weapon now that Jay Ajayi is an Eagle. I might have predicted a Dolphins win here before he was traded away, but now I simply don't know how they plan to move the football. RAIIDERS 20-14
LIONS AT PACKERS- The Lions have dropped their last 3 games to decent teams, but they're still a more complete team than the Packers without Aaron Rodgers. Divisional familiarity will keep this one close. LIONS 23-17
RAVENS AT TITANS- The Titans are favored in this game, but they did little to inspire confidence with their overtime 12-9 win over the Browns in their last game. Marcus Mariota should be well rested, but so are the Ravens. The Ravens secondary matches up very well against the Titans receiving corps, and I can't see the Titans bottling up Alex Collins. RAVENS 24-16
THIS IS IT, RAVENS FANS. THE SECOND HALF OF THE SEASON IS HERE. THE WEATHER IS GETTING COLDER AND THERE'S NO TEAM THAT HEATS UP WHEN IT'S COLD OUT QUITE LIKE THE BALTIMORE RAVENS!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, October 29, 2017
WEEK 8 NFL PREDICTIONS AND RAVENS REACTION
I would be lying if I claimed that Thusday night's 40-0 win over the Dolphins didn't rekindle my hope that the Ravens could find a way to right the figurative ship and earn a playoff berth this season. The Ravens defense suffocated a Dolphins offense that, while statistically dead last in the league, performed well enough to earn three consecutive wins over the Titans, Falcons, and Jets before Thursday's matchup. No one should be particularly shocked that the Ravens defense returned to form against a bottom-feeding offense, but everyone should recognize that the Ravens OFFENSE returned to form against the Dolphins' 6th ranked defense.
Alex Collins ran roughshod over a Dolphins run defense that currently ranks 9th in the league in average rushing yards allowed per game. Even when Terrance West returns to health, Collins must get the lion's share of carries among the Ravens running backs while Buck Allen, West, and ultimately Danny Woodhead should comprise a supporting cast. Woodhead and Collins could actually find themselves on the field at the same time with Woodhead lined up in the slot. Whatever the breakdown in touches may be, Collins has demonstrated a level of elusiveness burst, and top speed that none of his backups can match. He is a true starting-caliber back, and has demonstrated easily the most talent at the position since the decline and departure of Ray Rice--oh, and the Ravens didn't even have to spend a draft pick to acquire him.
Alex Collins leads the NFL in average yards per carry (6), but he has done so by breaking off some pretty impressive long runs. It's not uncommon to see the young back zig-zag his way up field for 20, 30, 40, or even 50 yards, and that's something else that the Ravens haven't consistently enjoyed since Ray Rice's prime. One major difference between Thursday's win over the Dolphins and the two losses immediately prior to it is the health of Matt Skura. The Ravens coaching staff appeared to prefer Skura to step in for Marshal Yanda after the all pro guard was placed on injured reserve in Week 2. Jermaine Eluemunor stepped in for Matt Skura when Skura became injured, but Eluemunor struggled to protect Flacco and open up running lanes during that time. None of the Ravens backup offensive linemen are even remotely one Marshal Yanda's level, but it's no shock that the return of Matt Skura against the Dolphins was accompanied by the most dominant offensive performance the Ravens have produced since hanging 31 points on an abysmal Raiders defense 3 weeks ago.
Some may question how Ravens players and fans could possibly feel excited after a game wherein Joe Flacco took a violent blow to the head that left the 10 year veteran concussed. The fact that the Ravens last game took place on a Thursday means that Flacco will have a full 10 days to pass concussion protocol and get ready to face an uneven Titans team in Tennessee. Concussions are all different, and there's no one set recovery time as they all vary in severity and what parts of the brain were affected. Ten days, however, gives Joe a strong chance to return for the next game, and Mike Wallace will hopefully be ready by that point too.
It must be noted that thumping the Dolphins in no way indicates the Ravens have officially and permanently turned their season around. The Ravens dominated the Dolphins last season in similar fashion, and Joe Flacco has never lost to Miami in his career. Sometimes a team simply matches up and game-plans well for a particular opponent. Baltimore outscored the Dolphins 78-6 in the last two meetings between these two teams. That doesn't mean that the Ravens are amazing or that the Dolphins are bad. The Ravens are 12-12 in their last 24 games without a playoff berth in since 2014. The Dolphins actually made the playoffs last season despite the loss of their starting quarterback. With that said, it sure is good to know the Ravens took care of business a team that has been red-hot as of late.
For all of John Harbaugh's publicly perceived faults, the Ravens have typically managed to hit their stride in the second half of seasons. For all the criticism Dean Pees has received over the years, the Ravens rank 6th in points allowed per game this season. Oh, and despite the claims that the Ravens offense ranks in the bottom two teams in the league in yardage per game, Baltimore actually ranks in the middle of the pack at 17th in points scored per game. If the Ravens do ultimately miss the playoffs, any combination of Harbaugh, Mornhinweg, or Pees could be gone, but each of these three men has found high level success in the past, and it's not outlandish to suggest they couldn't turn even this incredibly injured team into a consistent winner. Losing 4 out of their last 6 games certainly gave fans a feeling of hopelessness, but the Ravens lost 4 out of 5 games to finish the 2012 regular season...and we all know how that turned out.
Baltimore may find some way to squeak into the playoffs because of a fairly soft remaining schedule, but they'll need to find a way to get their explosive receiving corps consistently involved in the offense if they hope to beat other playoff teams. Mike Wallace hasn't even played the vast majority of the last two games, and he leads receivers with a meager 248 receiving yards on the season. Maclin has occasionally made a nice grab, but he's too good not to get more targets, and Breshad Perriman made some absolutely spectacular catches last season, so it mystifies me that he's been almost non-existent this year. If only one of these receiver took a statistical nosedive, it would make sense to suggest he was having a down year, but the fact that all three have produced at such depressed levels suggests that scheme and play-calling must be to blame. The Ravens offense faced 6 top 15 defenses in points allowed during their first 8 games, but they'll have plenty of opportunities to put on offensive fireworks displays in the second half of the season as 6 of their remaining 8 opponents rank in the bottom half of the league in points allowed per game, and many are dealing with significant season-ending injuries. The Packers, for example, lost Aaron Rodgers, and the Texans lost J.J. Watt.
The road ahead for the Ravens is by no means easy, but it's also not insurmountable. This organization hasn't found much success over the last few years, but here they sit at mid-season with only one less win than the top teams in the conference (that could, of course, change today). No team has looked consistently dominant in the AFC, and the Ravens two biggest foes, the Patriots and Steelers, have both showed major flaws at times. This could easily be a year where an 8-8 or 9-7 team secures a wildcard spot in the AFC, so don't lose hope yet Baltimore; we've got plenty of football left.
WEEK 8 NFL PICKS
VIKINGS AT BROWNS- The Browns will be lucky to get 100 yards of offense. VIKINGS 24-9
RAIDERS AT BILLS- Winners of 3 of their last 4 games, the Bills have started to pick up steam with wins against competitive teams. The Raiders, despite the return of Derek Carr, don't have the defense to stop the Bills. BILLS 31-28
COLTS AT BENGALS- The Bengals are down, but they're nowhere near as hopeless as the Colts this season. BENGALS 33-17
CHARGERS AT PATRIOTS- This will be an interesting game because of what the Chargers just did to the Broncos and Raiders. Philip Rivers and company won't struggle to move the ball on the Patriots defense, but I have a feeling Brady will find a way to engineer a late-game comeback. PATRIOTS 27-24
BEARS AT SAINTS- After beginning the season with two straight losses, the Saints have won 4 straight and demonstrated some offensive firepower along the way. The Bears have picked up steam as of late, but their success is predicated on their defense creating turnovers, and that's not something that can be counted on to happen on a weekly basis. SAINTS 30-21
FALCONS AT JETS- The Falcons aren't nearly as good as I thought they were, and the Jets aren't nearly as bad as I assumed they'd be. Atlanta has, as a matter of fact, lost their last 3 straight. It seems as though Las Vegas oddsmakers believe the Falcons will get back on track with a win in New Jersey today as they have Atlanta favored by 7, but it could be much tougher than they anticipate. FALCONS 23-20
49ERS AT EAGLES- Yeah...EAGLES 38-17
PANTHERS AT BUCCANEERS- The Buccaneers have lost close games to a good number of quality teams, but they've still only won two games on the season because "almost won" means you lost. PANTHERS 33-28
TEXANS AT SEAHAWKS- The Texans have almost exclusively beaten bottom-of-the-league teams, and the loss of J.J. Watt likely means the difference between being able to beat winning teams and only being relegated to beating up on the little guys. Meanwhile the Seahawks have the league's best defense that has only allowed 15.7 point per game. SEAHAWKS 28-17
COWBOYS AT REDSKINS- This is about as evenly matches as these two teams have been in a long time. The Cowboys are 2-1 on the road, and the Redskins are 2-1 at home. Both teams are 3-3 and will be fiercely vying for second place in the NFC East today. The Cowboys offense has picked up steam as of late, but their defense has allowed some teams to keep games close. In a divisional game where the teams appear incredibly evening matches, I tend to give the home team the nod, but I can't see a Redskins team that struggled to put the 49ers away stopping the Cowboys offense in what could be the last game Zeke plays for a while. COWBOYS 35-28
STEELERS AT LIONS- The Steelers have struggled offensively in nearly all of their road games (the Ravens game was sadly the one exception). Pittsburgh has, however, one of the best defenses in the league to this point, and that has helped them squeak out wins in games where their offense has sputtered. The Lions defense has looked pretty horrible at times this season though, and I expect the Steelers offense to have a road redemption game in Detroit today. STEELERS 38-20
BRONCOS AT CHIEFS- The after a strong start, the Broncos have lost 3 of their last 4 games. They're not going to snap that skid in Arrowhead Stadium. CHIEFS 27-21
THERE'S SOMETHING SO RELAXING ABOUT BEING ABLE TO KICK BACK ON A SUNDAY AND WATCH THE REST OF THE LEAGUE TEAR EACH OTHER APART. HAPPY HALLOWEEN, RAVEN NATION!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Alex Collins ran roughshod over a Dolphins run defense that currently ranks 9th in the league in average rushing yards allowed per game. Even when Terrance West returns to health, Collins must get the lion's share of carries among the Ravens running backs while Buck Allen, West, and ultimately Danny Woodhead should comprise a supporting cast. Woodhead and Collins could actually find themselves on the field at the same time with Woodhead lined up in the slot. Whatever the breakdown in touches may be, Collins has demonstrated a level of elusiveness burst, and top speed that none of his backups can match. He is a true starting-caliber back, and has demonstrated easily the most talent at the position since the decline and departure of Ray Rice--oh, and the Ravens didn't even have to spend a draft pick to acquire him.
Alex Collins leads the NFL in average yards per carry (6), but he has done so by breaking off some pretty impressive long runs. It's not uncommon to see the young back zig-zag his way up field for 20, 30, 40, or even 50 yards, and that's something else that the Ravens haven't consistently enjoyed since Ray Rice's prime. One major difference between Thursday's win over the Dolphins and the two losses immediately prior to it is the health of Matt Skura. The Ravens coaching staff appeared to prefer Skura to step in for Marshal Yanda after the all pro guard was placed on injured reserve in Week 2. Jermaine Eluemunor stepped in for Matt Skura when Skura became injured, but Eluemunor struggled to protect Flacco and open up running lanes during that time. None of the Ravens backup offensive linemen are even remotely one Marshal Yanda's level, but it's no shock that the return of Matt Skura against the Dolphins was accompanied by the most dominant offensive performance the Ravens have produced since hanging 31 points on an abysmal Raiders defense 3 weeks ago.
Some may question how Ravens players and fans could possibly feel excited after a game wherein Joe Flacco took a violent blow to the head that left the 10 year veteran concussed. The fact that the Ravens last game took place on a Thursday means that Flacco will have a full 10 days to pass concussion protocol and get ready to face an uneven Titans team in Tennessee. Concussions are all different, and there's no one set recovery time as they all vary in severity and what parts of the brain were affected. Ten days, however, gives Joe a strong chance to return for the next game, and Mike Wallace will hopefully be ready by that point too.
It must be noted that thumping the Dolphins in no way indicates the Ravens have officially and permanently turned their season around. The Ravens dominated the Dolphins last season in similar fashion, and Joe Flacco has never lost to Miami in his career. Sometimes a team simply matches up and game-plans well for a particular opponent. Baltimore outscored the Dolphins 78-6 in the last two meetings between these two teams. That doesn't mean that the Ravens are amazing or that the Dolphins are bad. The Ravens are 12-12 in their last 24 games without a playoff berth in since 2014. The Dolphins actually made the playoffs last season despite the loss of their starting quarterback. With that said, it sure is good to know the Ravens took care of business a team that has been red-hot as of late.
For all of John Harbaugh's publicly perceived faults, the Ravens have typically managed to hit their stride in the second half of seasons. For all the criticism Dean Pees has received over the years, the Ravens rank 6th in points allowed per game this season. Oh, and despite the claims that the Ravens offense ranks in the bottom two teams in the league in yardage per game, Baltimore actually ranks in the middle of the pack at 17th in points scored per game. If the Ravens do ultimately miss the playoffs, any combination of Harbaugh, Mornhinweg, or Pees could be gone, but each of these three men has found high level success in the past, and it's not outlandish to suggest they couldn't turn even this incredibly injured team into a consistent winner. Losing 4 out of their last 6 games certainly gave fans a feeling of hopelessness, but the Ravens lost 4 out of 5 games to finish the 2012 regular season...and we all know how that turned out.
Baltimore may find some way to squeak into the playoffs because of a fairly soft remaining schedule, but they'll need to find a way to get their explosive receiving corps consistently involved in the offense if they hope to beat other playoff teams. Mike Wallace hasn't even played the vast majority of the last two games, and he leads receivers with a meager 248 receiving yards on the season. Maclin has occasionally made a nice grab, but he's too good not to get more targets, and Breshad Perriman made some absolutely spectacular catches last season, so it mystifies me that he's been almost non-existent this year. If only one of these receiver took a statistical nosedive, it would make sense to suggest he was having a down year, but the fact that all three have produced at such depressed levels suggests that scheme and play-calling must be to blame. The Ravens offense faced 6 top 15 defenses in points allowed during their first 8 games, but they'll have plenty of opportunities to put on offensive fireworks displays in the second half of the season as 6 of their remaining 8 opponents rank in the bottom half of the league in points allowed per game, and many are dealing with significant season-ending injuries. The Packers, for example, lost Aaron Rodgers, and the Texans lost J.J. Watt.
The road ahead for the Ravens is by no means easy, but it's also not insurmountable. This organization hasn't found much success over the last few years, but here they sit at mid-season with only one less win than the top teams in the conference (that could, of course, change today). No team has looked consistently dominant in the AFC, and the Ravens two biggest foes, the Patriots and Steelers, have both showed major flaws at times. This could easily be a year where an 8-8 or 9-7 team secures a wildcard spot in the AFC, so don't lose hope yet Baltimore; we've got plenty of football left.
WEEK 8 NFL PICKS
VIKINGS AT BROWNS- The Browns will be lucky to get 100 yards of offense. VIKINGS 24-9
RAIDERS AT BILLS- Winners of 3 of their last 4 games, the Bills have started to pick up steam with wins against competitive teams. The Raiders, despite the return of Derek Carr, don't have the defense to stop the Bills. BILLS 31-28
COLTS AT BENGALS- The Bengals are down, but they're nowhere near as hopeless as the Colts this season. BENGALS 33-17
CHARGERS AT PATRIOTS- This will be an interesting game because of what the Chargers just did to the Broncos and Raiders. Philip Rivers and company won't struggle to move the ball on the Patriots defense, but I have a feeling Brady will find a way to engineer a late-game comeback. PATRIOTS 27-24
BEARS AT SAINTS- After beginning the season with two straight losses, the Saints have won 4 straight and demonstrated some offensive firepower along the way. The Bears have picked up steam as of late, but their success is predicated on their defense creating turnovers, and that's not something that can be counted on to happen on a weekly basis. SAINTS 30-21
FALCONS AT JETS- The Falcons aren't nearly as good as I thought they were, and the Jets aren't nearly as bad as I assumed they'd be. Atlanta has, as a matter of fact, lost their last 3 straight. It seems as though Las Vegas oddsmakers believe the Falcons will get back on track with a win in New Jersey today as they have Atlanta favored by 7, but it could be much tougher than they anticipate. FALCONS 23-20
49ERS AT EAGLES- Yeah...EAGLES 38-17
PANTHERS AT BUCCANEERS- The Buccaneers have lost close games to a good number of quality teams, but they've still only won two games on the season because "almost won" means you lost. PANTHERS 33-28
TEXANS AT SEAHAWKS- The Texans have almost exclusively beaten bottom-of-the-league teams, and the loss of J.J. Watt likely means the difference between being able to beat winning teams and only being relegated to beating up on the little guys. Meanwhile the Seahawks have the league's best defense that has only allowed 15.7 point per game. SEAHAWKS 28-17
COWBOYS AT REDSKINS- This is about as evenly matches as these two teams have been in a long time. The Cowboys are 2-1 on the road, and the Redskins are 2-1 at home. Both teams are 3-3 and will be fiercely vying for second place in the NFC East today. The Cowboys offense has picked up steam as of late, but their defense has allowed some teams to keep games close. In a divisional game where the teams appear incredibly evening matches, I tend to give the home team the nod, but I can't see a Redskins team that struggled to put the 49ers away stopping the Cowboys offense in what could be the last game Zeke plays for a while. COWBOYS 35-28
STEELERS AT LIONS- The Steelers have struggled offensively in nearly all of their road games (the Ravens game was sadly the one exception). Pittsburgh has, however, one of the best defenses in the league to this point, and that has helped them squeak out wins in games where their offense has sputtered. The Lions defense has looked pretty horrible at times this season though, and I expect the Steelers offense to have a road redemption game in Detroit today. STEELERS 38-20
BRONCOS AT CHIEFS- The after a strong start, the Broncos have lost 3 of their last 4 games. They're not going to snap that skid in Arrowhead Stadium. CHIEFS 27-21
THERE'S SOMETHING SO RELAXING ABOUT BEING ABLE TO KICK BACK ON A SUNDAY AND WATCH THE REST OF THE LEAGUE TEAR EACH OTHER APART. HAPPY HALLOWEEN, RAVEN NATION!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Saturday, October 21, 2017
WEEK 7 NFL PREDICTIONS
The past month of Ravens football has been absolutely miserable. Watching the Ravens get trounced in every phase of the game in London would have been the worst part if it hadn't then been followed by a loss to the Steelers at home and the Bear in overtime--also at home. The misery of the last month was only momentarily punctuated by a road win over a Raiders team missing its most vital player. It was nice to watch the Ravens get their offense going, but I had to constantly remain myself that the Raiders defense was next to useless despite the presence of Khalil Mack, and the win wasn't any indication that Baltimore had fixed major problems on offense.
Friends of mine have debated with me about the reason for the Ravens' struggles this year, and it seems as though they all wish that simply firing a coordinator or two would suddenly bring the team back to the glory of the early part of this decade. I even have one particular friend who insisted that the Ravens should have known they'd struggle because they invested "nothing" into their offense in the off-season as he cited the defense-heavy draft. I reminded him, however, that the Ravens had invested their previous two first round draft picks on a left tackle and a wide receiver, and they got another starting offensive linemen and starting running back in the 2016 draft--they just happen to both be on injured reserve. When you list them all out, the injuries to starting offensive players are so many and impactful that it's no surprise that the team struggles to move the football. Alex Lewis, Marshal Yanda, Danny Woodhead, Kenneth Dixon, Darren Waller, Dennis Pitta, Crocket Gillmore, Terrence West, and now Breshad Perriman have all had major injuries, and most of them have been season-ending. Joe Flacco hasn't missed any playing time, but its safe to say that much of the Ravens offensive plans were designed conservatively in an effort to keep Joe from aggravating whatever back injury kept him sidelined during the pre-season.
The Ravens aren't the New England Patriots; they can't simply turn to former lacrosse players or some guy who just got off the evening shift at Denny's to win a Super Bowl. They don't have an offensive system set in place, and they don't have an offensive guru as a head coach. Instead what they have is a revolving door of offensive coordinators, and a quarterback with the highest salary cap hit in the entire league. Joe Flacco showed the world in 2012 that he could outduel the best quarterbacks of a generation en route to winning Super Bowl MVP honors. Fast-forward five years and Flacco has demonstrated zero growth or progress despite being in the league for an entire decade. He has a strong arm, but lacks the vision, footwork, and ability to read a defense that the rest of the league's highest paid quarterbacks all possess.
So what was the difference between the Baltimore Ravens of 2008-2012 and the Ravens from 2013 to now? Injuries have certainly been quite a theme in recent years, but two things stand out to me: Ray Rice and an offensive line full of Pro Bowlers. The Ravens briefly experienced impressive production from Justin Forsett in 2014 within the system and guidance of Gary Kubiak, but Forsett's career was essentially ended when he broke his arm against the San Diego Chargers in 2015, and he was no sort of long term replacement for Rice. For a 4 year period from 2009-2012, Ray Rice was the most productive running back in the league. He is one of only two running backs in league history with multiple seasons with over 1200 yards rushing and 700 yards receiving. Rice served not only as a workhorse, but also as a spectacular pass-catching back. It might seem like ancient history now, but there was a period in the not-too-distant past where the Ravens were statistically guaranteed to win games where Rice touched the ball 25 times or more, and they lost most of the games where Rice touched the ball fewer than 20 times. The now-disgraced running back could break off runs of 50 or 75 yards and break a game wide open.
Ray Rice's career has been over now for years, but the points stands that the Ravens have looked to get production out of players essentially cast off from other teams, and they haven't truly invested at the position since spending a second round pick on little Ray in 2008. With that said, the Ravens appear to have an unlikely playmaker in the explosive Alex Collins who currently leads the NFL in yards per carry with 6.4. The Ravens actually rank 7th in the league running the football thus far, but they're not so good running the ball that their ranking has translated into touchdowns. This has much to do with the fact that the Ravens simply don't possess an offensive line capable of pass-blocking at a consistently high level. From 2011-2012, the Ravens had a host of Pro Bowl offensive linemen including Ben Grubbs, Matt Birk, Marshal Yanda, Bryant McKinney. Even Michael Oher was a quality right tackle at that point in his career, and that line protected Flacco well enough to give him the time to execute a copious number of scoring drives complete with a league high number of deep passes. Oh, and when Joe didn't have receivers open, he had Ray Rice as a reliable check-down target to keep the chains moving.
It's possible that having Alex Lewis, Marshal Yanda, and Danny Woodhead or Kenneth Dixon back would mean Flacco would have a similar set of tools at his disposal right now, but three of those four players are on injured reserve, so speculation is meaningless at this point. What isn't speculation is that the Ravens aren't equipped with the tools to move the football at the level of 2011 or 2012. I am still curious to see what the return of Danny Woodhead will bring considering just how easily the Ravens moved down the field when he was in on the first offensive drive of the season, but it seems naïve to think that a single aging running back will turn the season around considering his recently issue with injuries.
It's not that the Ravens haven't tried to add playmakers to this team--they absolutely have. Ozzie Newsome and company made a bid to try to trade for Adrian Peterson within the last two weeks, and they brought former Pro Bowl center Nick Mangold in for a visit during the off-season. The Ravens even cut backup offensive guard Tony Bergstrom in what was likely an attempt to find a more effective free agent guard or to make a trade for another guard that could step in immediately and be more reliable and productive than Matt Skura, Jermaine Elumaenor, or Tony Bergstrom. The market must've been quite dry as the Ravens promptly re-signed Bergstrom in the last 24 hours for depth.
The factors that have led the Ravens to struggle over the past 5 seasons have been too numerous to simply point to one or two things as the reason they've only made the playoffs once during that stretch. A lack of quality corners and safeties had been a major theme, but the Ravens did all they could to make that problem go away. The Ravens drafted a host of offensive linemen and found some impressive talent, but too much of that talent has become injured as of late. Whether the issues are defensive or offensive, one thing is for certain: signing major free agents would be dramatically easier if Joe Flacco's cap hit reflected his current quarterback ranking.
The Ravens have twice gone on the road this season and beaten teams to whom many assumed they'd lose. The Vikings, like the Ravens, have been snake-bitten by injuries as of late. The injuries to major starters on the Vikings may actually be more profound than those of the Ravens, but the Vikings have found ways to win their last two games anyway. Minnesota, in fact, beat the same Bears team that just edged the Ravens last week. The return of Brandon Williams may mean the Ravens defense will once again be the elite unit it appeared to be in the first two weeks of the season, but until that happens, it's clear the Vikings have a better defense. The Ravens D, for example, gave up a franchise record 231 rushing yards last week, and that was to a team that could barely pass the football. Without Sam Bradford, Dalvin Cook, and Stefon Diggs, it's tough to imagine the Vikings being particularly explosive, but Ravens fans assumed the same thing about the Bears last week.
To add to Baltimore's offensive woes, the Ravens receiving corps is more banged up now than at any point this season. It appears as though both Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace will play, but Breshad Perriman is dealing with a serious concussion and could miss significant time. Michael Campanaro and Chris Moore will have to step up in Perriman's place, but Wallace and Maclin must finally reach the level of production they were signed to produce.
Suffice it to say that I don't believe for one moment that this will be the week the Ravens offense finds some sort of miraculous rhythm. The Vikings may have the best defense the Ravens have faced to this point, and Baltimore's offense is most short-staffed than ever. The only two things that could tilt things in favor of the Ravens are major offensive schematic adjustments, but nothing we've seen thus far would lead us to believe that Marty Mornhinweg is likely to do anything of the sort. This is probably the most pessimistic I've ever been before a game wherein a Ravens opponent is missing its starting quarterback, running back, and top wide receiver, but they lost to a worse opponent at home last week. This situation is likely to get worse before it gets better.
With all of that said, my expectations couldn't get much lower, so if Baltimore finds a way to get out of Minnesota with a win, they'll improve to 4-3 and actually have a decent chance to win two of their next three games. The Dolphins did beat the Falcons last week, but they're still beatable, especially in Baltimore. The Titans will be a tougher opponent now that Marcus Mariota is healthy, but the Packers are incalculably worse without Aaron Rodgers. That leaves home games against the Texans and Lions that could both be quite tough, followed by road games against the Steelers and hopeless Browns. The Ravens then end their season in a two-game home stand against the Colts and Bengals.
If I had to take an optimistic guess, I'd say going forward that the Ravens should beat the Dolphins, Packers, Lions, Browns, and Colts. Baltimore then simply has to find a way to beat one or two of the other remaining teams: the Vikings, Titans, Texans, Steelers, and Bengals. It that sounds overoptimistic to you, that's because it probably is, but for all of their faults, this coaching staff often finds a way to fix early season problems enough to make a second half run. The problem is that recent late-season pushes have fallen short such as those in 2013 and 2016. Hopefully a comparatively weak schedule and the lack of truly strong teams in the AFC will allow the Ravens to grind out wins down the stretch, but this team MUST find an offensive identity and put the ball into the endzone on a regular basis. Ok, let's take a look at this week's picks!
WEEK 7 NFL PICKS
BUCCANEERS AT BILLS- The Bills lost a close game in Cincinnati last week, but they've beaten quality teams thus far with wins over the Falcons, Broncos, and Jets. BILLS 33-21
TITANS AT BROWNS- The Titans are starting to heat up and it's just another losing year for the Browns. If the Browns are going to win a game this season, this would likely have to be it, but I don't see any reason to assume they will. TITANS 24-16
PANTHERS AT BEARS- Somehow the Panthers actually play better on the road than at home this season. The Bears have the overtime number of every AFC North team they've played so far, but they haven't been able to beat anyone else. This will be closer than Carolina would like though. PANTHERS 27-23
SAINTS AT PACKERS- No Rodgers? No winning. SAINTS 38-14
JAGUARS AT COLTS- The Colts' only wins were incredibly close and against the worst two teams in the league. JAGUARS 35-10
CARDINALS AT RAMS- It's difficult to know how each of these teams will respond to the trip to London this week. Adrian Peterson had a breakout week last week, but it will be tough for him to find the same success against a much tougher Rams run defense. This is a Rams offense that put up 27 points against a rather scary Jaguars defense last week. RAMS 34-21
JETS AT DOLPHINS- It would appear as though the Dolphins have improved as of late. Beating the Titans without Marcus Mariota didn't appear much of a feat, but their subsequent win against the Falcons in Atlanta showed this Dolphins team is starting to find its groove. The Jets had the Dolphins number roughly a month ago, but this should be a much closer game. DOLPHINS 23-20
COWBOYS AT 49ERS- The last 5 of the 49ers' losses have each been by a field goal or less. It's amazing how an 0-6 team can be so insanely close to being 5-1. The Cowboys might seem like a much better team, but they're only 2-3 themselves. I'd like to say this is the week the 49ers finally edge an opponent, but they seem to play up or down to their opponents, and always fall just barely short. COWBOYS 31-28
SEAHAWKS AT GIANTS- The Giants mysteriously got their first win against a tough Broncos defense in Denver last week, but the most confusing part is that all three of the Giants' top wide receivers are done for the season. It's difficult to imagine that same trend will continue this week against the Seahawks. The Giants are 0-2 at home, and the Seahawks are coming off of a bye week. In their last game, Seattle held a rather potent Rams offense to a mere 10 points. SEAHAWKS 23-17
BENGALS AT STEELERS- The Bengals, believe it or not, have actually gotten significantly better since their embarrassing start to the season. They only barely lost to the Packers 3 a month ago, and they trounced the Browns 31-7 before beating out a strong Bills team last week. The Steelers, meanwhile, are still battling through real offensive issues, but they were able to beat the Chiefs in Kansas City. It's a bad idea to bet against the Steelers going up against the Bengals at home. This could easily go so very wrong for Big Ben, but the Bengals will likely be outgunned in this one. STEELERS 27-21
BRONCOS AT CHARGERS- After a white hot start to the season, the Broncos have lost two of their last 3 games and only narrowly beat a Raiders team without Derek Carr. The Chargers, meanwhile, have found a way to win their last two games and only barely lost to the Broncos in Denver. Home field advantage should tip this in the Bolts' favor. CHARGERS 21-17
FALCONS AT PATRIOTS- Neither of these teams is anywhere near as good as the last year's Super Bowl version of itself. I would give a homefield advantage to the Patriots, but they're 1-2 at home this season and the Falcons are 2-0 on the road. With that said, the Falcons have lost their last two games while the Patriots have won 4 of their last 5. Neither of these teams plays particularly good defense and both have a penchant for finding themselves in close games. PATRIOTS 31-28
REDSKINS AT EAGLES- Without Josh Norman, I can't see the Redskins beating the Eagles. The Redskins defense allowed a winless 49ers team to take them right down to the wire last night, but they'll need a far greater effort against the Eagles--and I don't think they'll get it. EAGLES 33-20
RAVENS AT VIKINGS- The Vikings may have gotten a gift facing the Packers without Aaron Rodgers for most of last week's game, but the Ravens got a gift facing the Bears with a rookie quarterback and no serious wide receivers. That didn't stop the Ravens from losing that game at home. No matter who is out, the Vikings still probably have a more talented roster than the Ravens at this point. Until the Ravens give me reason to think they've fixed their offensive problems, I simply can't predict a win against a decent team such as the 4-2 Vikings. Baltimore will struggle against any team with a top 10 defense this season. VIKINGS 24-20
I WISH I COULD BE MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE RAVENS CHANCES THIS WEEKEND, BUT IT'S THE RAVENS JOB TO SHOW US WE HAVE REASON TO BE OPTIMISTIC. WITH THAT SAID, THIS IS A BADLY WOUNDED VIKINGS TEAM, AND IF THE RAVENS DO THEIR JOB, THEY COULD EDGE MINNESOTA AND COME HOME VICTORIOUS.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Friends of mine have debated with me about the reason for the Ravens' struggles this year, and it seems as though they all wish that simply firing a coordinator or two would suddenly bring the team back to the glory of the early part of this decade. I even have one particular friend who insisted that the Ravens should have known they'd struggle because they invested "nothing" into their offense in the off-season as he cited the defense-heavy draft. I reminded him, however, that the Ravens had invested their previous two first round draft picks on a left tackle and a wide receiver, and they got another starting offensive linemen and starting running back in the 2016 draft--they just happen to both be on injured reserve. When you list them all out, the injuries to starting offensive players are so many and impactful that it's no surprise that the team struggles to move the football. Alex Lewis, Marshal Yanda, Danny Woodhead, Kenneth Dixon, Darren Waller, Dennis Pitta, Crocket Gillmore, Terrence West, and now Breshad Perriman have all had major injuries, and most of them have been season-ending. Joe Flacco hasn't missed any playing time, but its safe to say that much of the Ravens offensive plans were designed conservatively in an effort to keep Joe from aggravating whatever back injury kept him sidelined during the pre-season.
The Ravens aren't the New England Patriots; they can't simply turn to former lacrosse players or some guy who just got off the evening shift at Denny's to win a Super Bowl. They don't have an offensive system set in place, and they don't have an offensive guru as a head coach. Instead what they have is a revolving door of offensive coordinators, and a quarterback with the highest salary cap hit in the entire league. Joe Flacco showed the world in 2012 that he could outduel the best quarterbacks of a generation en route to winning Super Bowl MVP honors. Fast-forward five years and Flacco has demonstrated zero growth or progress despite being in the league for an entire decade. He has a strong arm, but lacks the vision, footwork, and ability to read a defense that the rest of the league's highest paid quarterbacks all possess.
So what was the difference between the Baltimore Ravens of 2008-2012 and the Ravens from 2013 to now? Injuries have certainly been quite a theme in recent years, but two things stand out to me: Ray Rice and an offensive line full of Pro Bowlers. The Ravens briefly experienced impressive production from Justin Forsett in 2014 within the system and guidance of Gary Kubiak, but Forsett's career was essentially ended when he broke his arm against the San Diego Chargers in 2015, and he was no sort of long term replacement for Rice. For a 4 year period from 2009-2012, Ray Rice was the most productive running back in the league. He is one of only two running backs in league history with multiple seasons with over 1200 yards rushing and 700 yards receiving. Rice served not only as a workhorse, but also as a spectacular pass-catching back. It might seem like ancient history now, but there was a period in the not-too-distant past where the Ravens were statistically guaranteed to win games where Rice touched the ball 25 times or more, and they lost most of the games where Rice touched the ball fewer than 20 times. The now-disgraced running back could break off runs of 50 or 75 yards and break a game wide open.
Ray Rice's career has been over now for years, but the points stands that the Ravens have looked to get production out of players essentially cast off from other teams, and they haven't truly invested at the position since spending a second round pick on little Ray in 2008. With that said, the Ravens appear to have an unlikely playmaker in the explosive Alex Collins who currently leads the NFL in yards per carry with 6.4. The Ravens actually rank 7th in the league running the football thus far, but they're not so good running the ball that their ranking has translated into touchdowns. This has much to do with the fact that the Ravens simply don't possess an offensive line capable of pass-blocking at a consistently high level. From 2011-2012, the Ravens had a host of Pro Bowl offensive linemen including Ben Grubbs, Matt Birk, Marshal Yanda, Bryant McKinney. Even Michael Oher was a quality right tackle at that point in his career, and that line protected Flacco well enough to give him the time to execute a copious number of scoring drives complete with a league high number of deep passes. Oh, and when Joe didn't have receivers open, he had Ray Rice as a reliable check-down target to keep the chains moving.
It's possible that having Alex Lewis, Marshal Yanda, and Danny Woodhead or Kenneth Dixon back would mean Flacco would have a similar set of tools at his disposal right now, but three of those four players are on injured reserve, so speculation is meaningless at this point. What isn't speculation is that the Ravens aren't equipped with the tools to move the football at the level of 2011 or 2012. I am still curious to see what the return of Danny Woodhead will bring considering just how easily the Ravens moved down the field when he was in on the first offensive drive of the season, but it seems naïve to think that a single aging running back will turn the season around considering his recently issue with injuries.
It's not that the Ravens haven't tried to add playmakers to this team--they absolutely have. Ozzie Newsome and company made a bid to try to trade for Adrian Peterson within the last two weeks, and they brought former Pro Bowl center Nick Mangold in for a visit during the off-season. The Ravens even cut backup offensive guard Tony Bergstrom in what was likely an attempt to find a more effective free agent guard or to make a trade for another guard that could step in immediately and be more reliable and productive than Matt Skura, Jermaine Elumaenor, or Tony Bergstrom. The market must've been quite dry as the Ravens promptly re-signed Bergstrom in the last 24 hours for depth.
The factors that have led the Ravens to struggle over the past 5 seasons have been too numerous to simply point to one or two things as the reason they've only made the playoffs once during that stretch. A lack of quality corners and safeties had been a major theme, but the Ravens did all they could to make that problem go away. The Ravens drafted a host of offensive linemen and found some impressive talent, but too much of that talent has become injured as of late. Whether the issues are defensive or offensive, one thing is for certain: signing major free agents would be dramatically easier if Joe Flacco's cap hit reflected his current quarterback ranking.
The Ravens have twice gone on the road this season and beaten teams to whom many assumed they'd lose. The Vikings, like the Ravens, have been snake-bitten by injuries as of late. The injuries to major starters on the Vikings may actually be more profound than those of the Ravens, but the Vikings have found ways to win their last two games anyway. Minnesota, in fact, beat the same Bears team that just edged the Ravens last week. The return of Brandon Williams may mean the Ravens defense will once again be the elite unit it appeared to be in the first two weeks of the season, but until that happens, it's clear the Vikings have a better defense. The Ravens D, for example, gave up a franchise record 231 rushing yards last week, and that was to a team that could barely pass the football. Without Sam Bradford, Dalvin Cook, and Stefon Diggs, it's tough to imagine the Vikings being particularly explosive, but Ravens fans assumed the same thing about the Bears last week.
To add to Baltimore's offensive woes, the Ravens receiving corps is more banged up now than at any point this season. It appears as though both Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace will play, but Breshad Perriman is dealing with a serious concussion and could miss significant time. Michael Campanaro and Chris Moore will have to step up in Perriman's place, but Wallace and Maclin must finally reach the level of production they were signed to produce.
Suffice it to say that I don't believe for one moment that this will be the week the Ravens offense finds some sort of miraculous rhythm. The Vikings may have the best defense the Ravens have faced to this point, and Baltimore's offense is most short-staffed than ever. The only two things that could tilt things in favor of the Ravens are major offensive schematic adjustments, but nothing we've seen thus far would lead us to believe that Marty Mornhinweg is likely to do anything of the sort. This is probably the most pessimistic I've ever been before a game wherein a Ravens opponent is missing its starting quarterback, running back, and top wide receiver, but they lost to a worse opponent at home last week. This situation is likely to get worse before it gets better.
With all of that said, my expectations couldn't get much lower, so if Baltimore finds a way to get out of Minnesota with a win, they'll improve to 4-3 and actually have a decent chance to win two of their next three games. The Dolphins did beat the Falcons last week, but they're still beatable, especially in Baltimore. The Titans will be a tougher opponent now that Marcus Mariota is healthy, but the Packers are incalculably worse without Aaron Rodgers. That leaves home games against the Texans and Lions that could both be quite tough, followed by road games against the Steelers and hopeless Browns. The Ravens then end their season in a two-game home stand against the Colts and Bengals.
If I had to take an optimistic guess, I'd say going forward that the Ravens should beat the Dolphins, Packers, Lions, Browns, and Colts. Baltimore then simply has to find a way to beat one or two of the other remaining teams: the Vikings, Titans, Texans, Steelers, and Bengals. It that sounds overoptimistic to you, that's because it probably is, but for all of their faults, this coaching staff often finds a way to fix early season problems enough to make a second half run. The problem is that recent late-season pushes have fallen short such as those in 2013 and 2016. Hopefully a comparatively weak schedule and the lack of truly strong teams in the AFC will allow the Ravens to grind out wins down the stretch, but this team MUST find an offensive identity and put the ball into the endzone on a regular basis. Ok, let's take a look at this week's picks!
WEEK 7 NFL PICKS
BUCCANEERS AT BILLS- The Bills lost a close game in Cincinnati last week, but they've beaten quality teams thus far with wins over the Falcons, Broncos, and Jets. BILLS 33-21
TITANS AT BROWNS- The Titans are starting to heat up and it's just another losing year for the Browns. If the Browns are going to win a game this season, this would likely have to be it, but I don't see any reason to assume they will. TITANS 24-16
PANTHERS AT BEARS- Somehow the Panthers actually play better on the road than at home this season. The Bears have the overtime number of every AFC North team they've played so far, but they haven't been able to beat anyone else. This will be closer than Carolina would like though. PANTHERS 27-23
SAINTS AT PACKERS- No Rodgers? No winning. SAINTS 38-14
JAGUARS AT COLTS- The Colts' only wins were incredibly close and against the worst two teams in the league. JAGUARS 35-10
CARDINALS AT RAMS- It's difficult to know how each of these teams will respond to the trip to London this week. Adrian Peterson had a breakout week last week, but it will be tough for him to find the same success against a much tougher Rams run defense. This is a Rams offense that put up 27 points against a rather scary Jaguars defense last week. RAMS 34-21
JETS AT DOLPHINS- It would appear as though the Dolphins have improved as of late. Beating the Titans without Marcus Mariota didn't appear much of a feat, but their subsequent win against the Falcons in Atlanta showed this Dolphins team is starting to find its groove. The Jets had the Dolphins number roughly a month ago, but this should be a much closer game. DOLPHINS 23-20
COWBOYS AT 49ERS- The last 5 of the 49ers' losses have each been by a field goal or less. It's amazing how an 0-6 team can be so insanely close to being 5-1. The Cowboys might seem like a much better team, but they're only 2-3 themselves. I'd like to say this is the week the 49ers finally edge an opponent, but they seem to play up or down to their opponents, and always fall just barely short. COWBOYS 31-28
SEAHAWKS AT GIANTS- The Giants mysteriously got their first win against a tough Broncos defense in Denver last week, but the most confusing part is that all three of the Giants' top wide receivers are done for the season. It's difficult to imagine that same trend will continue this week against the Seahawks. The Giants are 0-2 at home, and the Seahawks are coming off of a bye week. In their last game, Seattle held a rather potent Rams offense to a mere 10 points. SEAHAWKS 23-17
BENGALS AT STEELERS- The Bengals, believe it or not, have actually gotten significantly better since their embarrassing start to the season. They only barely lost to the Packers 3 a month ago, and they trounced the Browns 31-7 before beating out a strong Bills team last week. The Steelers, meanwhile, are still battling through real offensive issues, but they were able to beat the Chiefs in Kansas City. It's a bad idea to bet against the Steelers going up against the Bengals at home. This could easily go so very wrong for Big Ben, but the Bengals will likely be outgunned in this one. STEELERS 27-21
BRONCOS AT CHARGERS- After a white hot start to the season, the Broncos have lost two of their last 3 games and only narrowly beat a Raiders team without Derek Carr. The Chargers, meanwhile, have found a way to win their last two games and only barely lost to the Broncos in Denver. Home field advantage should tip this in the Bolts' favor. CHARGERS 21-17
FALCONS AT PATRIOTS- Neither of these teams is anywhere near as good as the last year's Super Bowl version of itself. I would give a homefield advantage to the Patriots, but they're 1-2 at home this season and the Falcons are 2-0 on the road. With that said, the Falcons have lost their last two games while the Patriots have won 4 of their last 5. Neither of these teams plays particularly good defense and both have a penchant for finding themselves in close games. PATRIOTS 31-28
REDSKINS AT EAGLES- Without Josh Norman, I can't see the Redskins beating the Eagles. The Redskins defense allowed a winless 49ers team to take them right down to the wire last night, but they'll need a far greater effort against the Eagles--and I don't think they'll get it. EAGLES 33-20
RAVENS AT VIKINGS- The Vikings may have gotten a gift facing the Packers without Aaron Rodgers for most of last week's game, but the Ravens got a gift facing the Bears with a rookie quarterback and no serious wide receivers. That didn't stop the Ravens from losing that game at home. No matter who is out, the Vikings still probably have a more talented roster than the Ravens at this point. Until the Ravens give me reason to think they've fixed their offensive problems, I simply can't predict a win against a decent team such as the 4-2 Vikings. Baltimore will struggle against any team with a top 10 defense this season. VIKINGS 24-20
I WISH I COULD BE MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE RAVENS CHANCES THIS WEEKEND, BUT IT'S THE RAVENS JOB TO SHOW US WE HAVE REASON TO BE OPTIMISTIC. WITH THAT SAID, THIS IS A BADLY WOUNDED VIKINGS TEAM, AND IF THE RAVENS DO THEIR JOB, THEY COULD EDGE MINNESOTA AND COME HOME VICTORIOUS.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)