Ok, I'm back on track with two successful playoff predictions to take my record to a still-embarrassing 3-3 this post-season. It's too bad everyone and their mother picked the Patriots and Seahawks to win their respective games on Saturday, so there's simply not much to brag about. I can tell you, however, that getting predictions correct sure beats the alternative.
The Patriots showed once again that they're a team with a complete offense that can run the ball just as well as it can pass. That might just come in handy at the AFC Championship next week. Andrew Luck showed us that he is strikingly similar to his Colts predecessor with a healthy dosage of passing yards and a pair of touchdowns--but also another handful of interceptions and an inability to win playoff games in harsh, cold environments. Luck is unquestionably talented, but his team simply wasn't build to go on the road and win playoff games this season. It's actually quite unfortunate for the Colts that they traded away a first round pick for Trent Richardson as he has proven himself a total bust after showing early explosion and promise as a rookie in Cleveland.
The Seahawks did exactly what everyone thought they would do when they suffocated the Saints offense for the vast majority of their game in Seattle. Drew Brees' elite regular season stats simply don't seem to mean much when they don't translate into serious post-season success. The man is the only quarterback in the history of the NFL to throw for over 5,000 yards in 4 seasons, and 3 of those seasons were this year, last year, and the year before that! As you can probably guess, I'm not sold on the idea of dome teams finding consistent success in the post season. It's possible for them to go to a Super Bowl if they manage to secure homefield advantage through the playoffs, but that scenario isn't particularly common, and it's far more common for tough, outdoor teams to fare better in the post-season. The Seahawks did lose Percy Harvin for next week because of a concussion, and that will likely prove a major factor as both of the Seahawks possible future opponents play defense far better than a Saints. The Saints defense, in fact, actually held its own against Seattle's offense...well at least much better than I think many people anticipated. Seattle will have to put up a far more impressive offensive performance if it hopes to beat either of the other two top defenses in the league next weekend. Speaking of the other top defenses, let's get to tomorrow's predictions!
SUNDAY NFL PREDICTIONS
49ERS AT PANTHERS
If I can predict this game correctly, I'll feel that I've finally gotten back on the right track with my prediction analysis process. The Panthers played the 49ers in San Francisco in Week 10 of the regular season and won an incredibly tight game 10-9. It's always difficult to win on the road in the NFL, but to travel to the opposite coast and do so in Candlestick Park is an unquestionably impressive feat. Logic would dictate that if the Panthers beat the 49ers in San Francisco earlier this season, than Carolina should definitely once again handle the 49ers at home. The problem is that, as I mentioned yesterday, the 49ers offense is a totally different animal with its #1 wide receiver back.
Yes, Anquan Boldin fans, Michael Crabtree is unquestionably the most talented receiver playing for the 49ers. Crabtree is acrobatic with great hands and can actually separate from defensive backs. Boldin took over a couple of games this season with sensational receiving performances, but he basically disappeared last week against a lackluster Green Bay secondary. More importantly, Anquan Boldin only managed 23 receiving yards at home against the Panthers defense, and that was after the 49ers had a bye week to rest up and prepare for Carolina.
With the return of Michael Crabtree, the 49ers simply no longer require a great performance from Boldin to win games though he still has produced in the receiving department. Boldin is still an excellent blocker to aid in San Fran's running game, and he can still go up and make catches in heavy coverage, especially if Crabtree and Vernon Davis draw heavy coverage and stretch the field. The 49ers might just be the most complete team left in the NFC or even the NFL at this point, but they're so similar to the Seahawks and Panthers that picking the 49ers based on their perceived completeness could be unwise...especially since they once again must go on the road.
The 49ers are arguably the NFL's hottest team as they've won their last 7 games. The Panthers, however, have a legitimate claim to that very same title as they've won 11 out of their last 12 games. Their only loss in the last 12 games came against the Saints in New Orleans. The Panthers then proceeded to beat the Saints in Carolina and put to rest any doubts that the Panthers are the better of those two teams. Suffocating defense is the reason for much of the Panthers' success this season. The Panthers defense allowed exactly 12 points per game at home this season. That 12 point average is less than half of the 25.875 points that the Panthers offense scored at home this season, and that could make things frustratingly difficult for the 49ers.
The 49ers have been on quite a tear as of late with their 7 game winning streak. Michael Crabtree has only played in 6 of the last 7 games, so we'll only use stats games during that period. The 49ers have scored an average of 22.5 points per game since Crabtree's return, and some of those games have been against teams with defenses of similar strength to that of the Panthers. In the last 6 games, the 49ers played the Seahawks in San Francisco and the Cardinals in Phoenix. San Francisco only managed to score an average of 21 points per game, but their strong defense allowed them to win anyway. But will the 49ers be able to put up enough points on the road against a team that held them to 9 points at home earlier this season?
One thing I noticed after looking over Michael Crabtee's game log for the 6 games he's played in this season was the sharp drop off in his receiving production when he's facing top 10 ranked pass defenses. I know this flies in the face of what I previously wrote about Crabtree being the 49ers' most talented receiver (I still believe that to be true) but his only truly dominant games came against the 21st and 24th ranked pass defenses in the NFL. Sure he looked great against the Packers, but what made that feat impressive was the environment in which he played that game, not the players he faced. Maybe it's Crabtree's presence that opens up things for Boldin and not the other way around, but I don't expect Michael Crabtree to put up big receiving numbers against the Panthers on Sunday.
The 49ers will likely be without Carlos Rodgers for a second straight week, but they should still have a strong secondary. I'm willing to bet Steve Smith will play for the Panthers after hurting his knee two weeks ago against the Saints. The 49ers simply had more players listed on their injury report and less time to recover before this game. I don't see any concrete evidence to suggest that the 49ers can't pull off a win in Carolina, but the fact that the Panthers handled the 49ers offense so well earlier this season and the fact that Michael Crabtree mostly disappears against top defenses makes me think that the well rested home team with a great defense and running game will win this game. The 49ers are quite similar to the Panthers in a variety of ways, but the Panthers are simply better at home than the 49ers are on the road. The 49ers looked great last week, but they were playing against a poor Green Bay defense and still only managed to put up 23 points. The 49ers could once again make me look like a fool for better against them, but everything I've evaluated here tells me that Cam Newton and company will once again top the 49ers. This one, like the last meeting between these two teams, should be painfully close.
FINAL PREDICTION: PANTHERS 24-21.
CHARGERS AT BRONCOS
This could be one of the most difficult games to predict this season because it features a matchup between divisional rivals that split their games this season. The problem is that the Broncos beat the Chargers in San Diego and the Chargers beat the Broncos in Denver. Sure, Peyton Manning didn't have Wes Welker last time the Chargers traveled to Mile High Stadium, but even though Welker has returned, Von Miller's season is over because of a knee injury. I could rattle off statistics about how many points the Broncos have put up at home this season versus how the Chargers have fared on the road, but most of the Broncos' home games aren't relevant because they featured comparatively high game temperatures to those of the last month.
It's true that Peyton Manning has never won a playoff game in temperatures below 40 degrees, but tomorrow's game will be far from the coldest in which he's played. Denver's forecast is for a high of 42 degrees and a low of 30 degrees. It should be roughly 37 degrees at the beginning of the game, and that's much warmer than the temperatures in Denver over the last couple of weeks. It may be that Manning is finally over-prepared for the weather of a cold playoff game.
The Chargers certainly don't shy away from road games in inclement weather. Philip Rivers performed well against the Broncos defense one month ago despite bitter cold temperatures. The Chargers then went on to hand the Bengals their only home loss of the season last week despite miserable cold rain. Part of the Chargers' ability to beat the Bengals was their insistence on sticking with the running game to set up the pass. The Broncos have also run the ball well this season, and that has helped them to take pressure off of Peyton Manning when his offensive line has failed to give him enough time to consistently drop back to pass.
The Chargers were successful in putting a lot of pressure on Peyton Manning and forcing him to make poor throws in their last meeting in Denver. I believe their success came in large part from the absence of Wes Welker. With Wes Welker in the game, Manning has of one the best short route running receivers in the game to whom he can find and target quickly. That ability to release the ball quickly and connect with Welker is what helps to take pressure off of Manning. Without that short and intermediate threat, the Chargers were able to take away a strong dimension of the Broncos offense.
The Broncos are rested, they're loaded on offense, and they're at home. It's not a warm weather game, but it's also not going to be rainy or particularly cold for Denver in January. Oh! I almost forgot to mention that Ryan Matthews is questionable and won't be 100% if he does end up playing as he's suffering from a sprained ankle from last week's game. Matthews' absence or lack of good health will likely take away a big dimension to the Chargers' rushing attack and, thus, their offense. Danny Woodhead is good, but he's a complimentary back and not capable of carrying this team's running game himself. Peyton will have his first cold playoff win of his career.
FINAL PREDICTION: BRONCOS 28-23
WHETHER OR NOT MY SUNDAY PREDICTIONS ARE CORRECT, LET'S HOPE FOR SOME HEART-STOPPING GRIDIRON ACTION THIS SUNDAY!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!....PLEASE GET BACK TO THE PLAYOFFS SO THIS CLOSING MAKES MORE SENSE!
Sunday, January 12, 2014
Saturday, January 11, 2014
NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND PREDICTIONS: SATURDAY GAMES
ROUGH START TO THE PLAYOFFS
There's no question I was humbled with a 1-3 start to my playoff predictions. I must admit that I simply didn't put in the sheer amount of time that I had in years past as my current job and work schedule leave me with far less opportunity to spend 16 hours a week researching and writing. With that said, I'm also reminded that no one can be perfect or even nearly perfect in their football predictions all the time, but there definitely some points that, had I put more thought and time into my research and analysis, I possibly would have realized and taken into account.
The first major point I should have taken into consideration (and this is something of which I was well aware) was that the Bengals, as an organization, have not won a playoff game in 23 seasons. It doesn't matter how good they've been at home, and it doesn't matter that they beat the Ravens the week before because the Bengals have simply failed to win playoff games for about as long as I've been watching football on television. I know that a team's historical record shouldn't have much bearing on current predictions since the vast majority of Bengals players from the last 23 seasons are no longer on the team. With that said, a more relevant statistic is the fact that the Bengals have the second longer tenured head coach in the NFL behind Bill Belichick in Marvin Lewis. One way or another, Lewis has never been able to prepare a team adequately to win a playoff game during his time as an NFL head coach. The Bengals, most recently have been to the playoffs for the past 3 seasons in a row and have won the AFC North division twice in the last 5 seasons and STILL somehow haven't managed to win a single post-season game.
The second point I should have taken into account was the fact that Andy Dalton threw 4 interceptions the week before at home against the Ravens. Dalton played poorly in that game and the only thing that kept his team from losing was the fact that the Ravens offense was playing far more poorly. It should have, thus, come as no surprise to me that Dalton would produce another handful of turnovers against the Chargers. I assumed that the Chargers simply weren't particularly good as they only squeaked into the playoffs because some late game blunders by the referees in their game against the Chiefs' second string players. I figured that if the Chargers weren't good enough to convincingly beat a team of backups at home, then there would be no way they'd upset a team that went unbeaten at home during the regular season. It's possible the Chargers simply looked past the Chiefs knowing that Kansas City would be sitting most of its starters. One thing is for sure: the Chargers most certainly did NOT look past the Bengals. The Chargers exposed the Bengals defense for what it truly was at this point in the football season...depleted.
The third thing I should have taken into account doesn't pertain to the Bengals game, but it does pertain to yet another game I misjudged. The Eagles were favorites at home to beat the Saints as the Saints have never won playoff game on the road in the history of their franchise. Had I simply taken a more thorough glance at various offensive and defensive units of both the Eagles and Saints, I would have picked the Saints without question. I'm embarrassed that I missed this, but the Eagles had the worst ranked pass defense in the league and the Saints had the second ranked pass defense in the league. As great as the Eagles' rushing was this season, it wasn't strong enough to operate without the serious threat of the pass. Nick Foles is a more talented young quarterback than most people give him credit, but Foles has to put up a lot of yardage and a lot of points in order to beat good teams, and there was no way Nick Foles was going to light up the second ranked pass defense in the league. It was certainly a close game, but in the end, the Eagles defense wasn't good enough to stop an elite quarterback. Oh! And had I looked but a little bit closer I would have learned that the Eagles' home record this season (4-4) was only barely better than the Saints' road record (3-5). The Saints aren't a great road playoff team, but they can definitely beat a team with the worst pass defense in the league regardless of the setting.
The fourth thing I should have taken into consideration became abundantly clear in the 49ers and Packers game. The 49ers have Michael Crabtree back healthy and that made all the difference in the world against a lackluster Packers secondary. It didn't matter that Boldin didn't have a big day because Crabtree was in rare form. I should have totally disregarded the 49ers' 30th ranked passing yards per game average because Crabtree wasn't on the field for most of the season. That statistic should have been thrown out by my old standards. I also should have taken into consideration that the 49ers are simply a more complete team than the Packers with stout defense and solid running game. The game came right down to the wire, but the 49ers were able to keep the Packers out of the endzone on Green Bay's final drive, and Green Bay wasn't able to halt the 49ers' final drive to set up the game winning score. The new pass-friendly rules have clearly not changed the time-tested adage that to win in harsh playoff environments a team needs to be able to run the ball and play stout defense.
Hats off to the Chargers, 49ers, and Saints for reminding me that the real reason I had so much success predicting playoff games in the past two seasons was the extra time I spent evaluating every little detail. I took in-depth looks at injury reports, thoroughly examined matchups, and spent hours looking at statistics. I can't promise I'll get every prediction right, but I'll do my best to stick to the methods that made my last two post-seasons of predictions so successful. Now, enough of last week, it's time to get to Saturday's games!
SATURDAY NFL PREDICTIONS
SAINTS AT SEAHAWKS
I feel a tad more confident predicting this game as the Seahawks absolutely pummeled the Saints the last time these teams met in Seattle...but somehow that makes me uneasy. To make sure that my confidence in Seattle is justified, let's take a look at some statistics, shall we?
The Seahawks haven't exactly been red-hot recently. Since their bye week, the Seattle has alternated wins and losses. To understand the Seahawks current state, we must examine their two losses over the last 5 games. The first of these losses came on the road against their biggest rival, the 49ers. This loss may have surprised some, but it didn't surprise many as the 49ers have beaten the Seahawks in close games in San Francisco in recent years even though the Seahawks absolutely obliterated the 49ers in Seattle. In this particular game, both the 49ers and Seahawks had similar passing numbers. Kaepernick and Wilson both threw for under 200 passing yards with one touchdown, one interception, and two sacks. The 49ers, however, rushed for nearly double the yards (163) that the Seahawks produced on the ground (86) and that was the difference maker in what proved to be yet another tightly contested game in San Francisco.
The next game the Seahawks lost was at home against the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals shocked the world with their 17-10 victory in Seattle as the Seahawks had gone otherwise unbeaten at home this season with what was thought to be the biggest homefield advantage in the NFL. Seattle still probably DOES have the biggest homefield advantage in the NFL, but they happened to run into the team with the first ranked run defense in the league. It didn't matter that Carson Palmer threw 4 interceptions because the Cardinals held the Seahawks to only two scoring drives in the entire game. The Cardinals also dramatically won the time of possession battle as they controlled the ball for over 37 minutes as compared to 22 minutes for the Seahawks.
Maybe the Seahawks simply had a poor undisciplined day against the Cardinals with 9 penalties for a total of 102 yards, but one thing is for certain: the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS ARE NOTHING LIKE THE 49ERS AND CARDINALS. The Saints don't typically excel at stopping the run, and that's one thing a team must do if it hopes to beat the Hawks in Seattle. The Saints have the 2 ranked pass offense in the league with an average of 307.4 passing yards per game, but the Seahawks have the #1 pass defense in the league and only allow 172 passing yards per game. It's not as though Brees hasn't thrown for big chunks of yardage on the road either as he has put up some big numbers away from New Orleans. The issue is that Brees threw 9 of the total interceptions from this season in road games, and struggled against teams with impressive defensive lines including the Rams, Panthers, Jets, and most importantly, the Seahawks!
Drew Brees didn't throw any interceptions when his team last played the Seahawks, but he didn't need to in order to lose that game. The Seahawks defensive backs absolutely blanketed the Saints receivers with coverage, and Brees threw for an uncharacteristic 144 passing yards. The Saints already don't do particularly well on the road, but the do ESPECIALLY poorly against elite pass defenses on the road, and there's no better pass defense than that of the Seahawks.
The bottom line is that the Seahawks are great at stopping the only thing that makes the Saints offense special: the pass. The Saints have the 25th ranked running game in the league, and as we learned before, a team has to be able to run the ball if it hopes to beat the Seahawks. Some might say the Saints will have more success against the Seahawks after having played them and gotten a chance to re-evaluate their game plan going into Seattle, but I simply don't believe the Saints have the defense to stop the Seahawks' running game nor strong enough rushing attack to keep the Seahawks' defense on its toes. No NFL game is a lock, but the outcome of this game appears quite clear.
FINAL PREDICTION: SEAHAWKS 27-17
COLTS AT PATRIOTS
The Patriots are not unbeatable. They have endured major blows to their roster this season including the recent losses of Brandon Spikes and Rob Gronkowski as well as the earlier losses of Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo. The Patriots, however, remain an elite team because of their incredible coaching staff. The question that remains is whether or not the Colts are a strong enough road team to take down Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in Foxboro after the Patriots have had a bye week to rest and prepare for a dome team with a second year quarterback. For the time being, forget your preconceived notions about which of these teams is better, and let's examine statistics to get a truly accurate idea of the probable outcome of this game.
The first thing that I notice as I look at the Colts' record over the course of this season is the fact that they rose to the occasion against some of the best teams in the NFL including the Broncos, 49ers, Seahawks, and Chiefs. I also notice, however, that the Colts also lost to the Dolphins, Bengals, Chargers, Cardinals, and Rams. Losing to the Bengals in Cincinnati wasn't a huge surprise given the Bengals record at home this season, but it may shed light on the type of team that tends to beat the Colts on the road OR at home.
With the exception of the Miami Dolphins, every team beat the Colts this season had a great run defense. Colts lost to teams with the 1st, 5th, 9th, and 12th ranked rush defenses. It's not as though the Colts have a great rushing attack. The Colts, in fact, ranked 21st in rushing yards during the regular season, but the recent emergence of Donald Brown has brought life to their ground game over the past month. Brown hasn't had a ton of carries, but he has averaged an impressive 5.3 yards per carry on the season and 5 yards per carry last week against the Chiefs. It's not surprising, therefore, that in the aforementioned 4 losses to teams with elite run defenses, Donald Brown was held to an average of 1.95 yards per carry. It's clear to me that the loss of Reggie Wayne earlier this season has meant that the Colts have relied on at least the threat of the run to help open things up for their passing game without their most reliable receiving weapon. The Colts defense, after all, isn't elite. They a respectable 13th in pass defense, but near the bottom of the league in rush defense at #26.
More important than their overall defensive ranking is the Colts' level of defensive play on the road. This game is, after all, going to played far away from the controlled temperature and Colt-friendly crowd of Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts played well in their last road game against the slumping Chiefs, but I'd rather not look at their performance against a slumping team in order to help predict how they'll do against the Patriots. The Colts last road game against a winning team was against the Bengals in Cincinnati. Andrew Luck actually had a great game, but his defense most certainly did not. Despite Luck's 4 touchdown passes and 326 passing yards, the Bengals won because the Colts couldn't stop the Bengals ground attack that put up 155 yards and allowed the Bengals to dominate the time of possession battle.
Unfortunately for the Colts, the Patriots also have an elite (9th ranked) running game to compliment their 10th ranked passing attack. What the Patriots DON'T have is a great run defense. The Patriots rank near last in the league at stopping the run, and they struggled two weeks ago to stop the Bills from running the football as the Bills put up 169 yards and and 393 total offensive yards. The more amazing aspect to those stats is that Bills game was played in Foxboro. The Patriots still managed to beat the Bills by two touchdowns, but the the vulnerability against the run remains apparent.
The Colts and Patriots aren't ultimately that different. They both have great quarterbacks, but the Patriots' quarterback better. They both have the ability to run the ball, but the Patriots run the ball better. Both teams struggle to stop the run, but fare better against the pass. The Patriots are unquestionably better at moving the ball on offense while the Colts are marginally better on defense. Two things, however, give the Patriots a serious upper hand in this game. The first is the fact that the Patriots have major homefield advantage against a dome team with a young quarterback with only a single home playoff win under his belt. The second major advantage is that he Patriots are well rested despite their list of major offensive and defensive weapons that have gone down with injuries this season. With the exception of one road loss to the Miami Dolphins, the Patriots have only lost to teams with strong defenses this season. The Colts defense allowed 44 points AT HOME last week, I have a hard time believing that Andrew Luck will have nearly the same fortune of facing a team that could collapse offensively the same way the Chiefs did in the wild card round.
The Patriots are undefeated at home this weekend, they're well rested, and the only non-divisional opponents they've lost to this season have had elite defenses...and even those losses came right down to the wire (especially the controversial loss in North Carolina). The Colts found some luck last week against a team that did everything it could to give the game away in the second half. This is the point at which their luck runs out. Aqip Talib will take away T.Y. Hilton and that will be enough to slow down the Colts' offense. The Patriots will have little trouble putting together a balanced offensive attack against a porous Colts defense in Foxboro.
FINAL PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 38-21.
If all goes as I predicted, I shouldn't pat myself on the back to much as Sunday's games bring much bigger tests of my analytical and predictive abilities. Regardless, I'll take any win I can get after going 1-3 last weekend. This weekend is about redemption, and hopefully I'll gain that redemption using more thorough examination of each upcoming game.
On a Ravens related note, I'd like to address some things that were stated in the State of the Ravens press conference earlier this week. Yes, Ozzie isn't afraid to cut great players, and, yes, Terrell Suggs could ultimately end up not being a Raven next season if his contract situation isn't taken care of in the off-season. I believe, however, that Suggs wants to follow in his mentor's footsteps and retire a Raven. Age isn't catching up to Suggs at all. This season actually isn't entirely uncharacteristic for him. Suggs actually has had up and down years for the Ravens since he's been in the league, and a season in which you record 10 sacks is not a down season...even if his stats dropped off in the second half of the year. I'm confident that Suggs will be amicable regarding a contract extension because an extension ultimately benefits both parties. There's still the danger that Suggs could be insulted by the prospect of a pay cut for next season, but he also shouldn't be too surprised given the fact that he did unquestionably take a major dip in performance in the second half of the season after appearing to be a candidate for defensive player of the year in the first half.
The Ravens most likely won't keep James Ihedigbo, Arthur Jones, Jacoby Jones, Ed Dickson, Dallas Clark, or Michael Oher. The only one out of that group that I truly hope the Ravens retain is Jacoby Jones. Jones is approaching 30 and has never put up elite receiving statistics, but he came in clutch for the Ravens once he recovered from his early season injury. There's truly no better return man in the came than Jacoby Jones. As my family members can tell you, there were numerous occasions this season where the Ravens were in tight games and I happened mutter "jeez, we could really use a huge return from Jacoby right now", and that's exactly what he gave us. No, I don't have a crystal ball, but Jones is simply that much of a threat to go yard pretty much any time he returns a kick or punt. That kind of explosive potential is something that the Ravens simply can't afford to lose right now. If I were in charge of the Ravens off-season moves, I'd find a way to extend Jones' contract by a year in an effort to lower his cap number and create more space to help sign players such as Eugene Monroe, Daryl Smith, and Dennis Pitta.
Ozzie Newsome's decision making isn't perfect, but it's still nearly the best in the league if not the best overall. The Ravens already have 2 Super Bowls in 18 seasons and it says something about their standards that 8 wins and barely missing the playoffs is an incredible disappointment despite incredible roster changes and losses. Juan Castillo did a poor job this season, but there's no way the Ravens are going to stand for him utilizing that same system again this season. If somehow they do, Steve Bisciotti will fire him and hold John Harbaugh totally responsible. With that said, let's see what happens with the offensive coordinator position and how the Ravens fare in the draft and the free agent market. It's entirely possible that with better personnel and pressure to fix things, Juan Castillo may actually do a total 180 and turns things around for Flacco's protection and the Ravens running game.
LET'S HOPE FOR SOME PLAYOFF MAGIC TOMORROW
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS (GET SOME NEW LINEMAN AND A NEW WR!!!)
There's no question I was humbled with a 1-3 start to my playoff predictions. I must admit that I simply didn't put in the sheer amount of time that I had in years past as my current job and work schedule leave me with far less opportunity to spend 16 hours a week researching and writing. With that said, I'm also reminded that no one can be perfect or even nearly perfect in their football predictions all the time, but there definitely some points that, had I put more thought and time into my research and analysis, I possibly would have realized and taken into account.
The first major point I should have taken into consideration (and this is something of which I was well aware) was that the Bengals, as an organization, have not won a playoff game in 23 seasons. It doesn't matter how good they've been at home, and it doesn't matter that they beat the Ravens the week before because the Bengals have simply failed to win playoff games for about as long as I've been watching football on television. I know that a team's historical record shouldn't have much bearing on current predictions since the vast majority of Bengals players from the last 23 seasons are no longer on the team. With that said, a more relevant statistic is the fact that the Bengals have the second longer tenured head coach in the NFL behind Bill Belichick in Marvin Lewis. One way or another, Lewis has never been able to prepare a team adequately to win a playoff game during his time as an NFL head coach. The Bengals, most recently have been to the playoffs for the past 3 seasons in a row and have won the AFC North division twice in the last 5 seasons and STILL somehow haven't managed to win a single post-season game.
The second point I should have taken into account was the fact that Andy Dalton threw 4 interceptions the week before at home against the Ravens. Dalton played poorly in that game and the only thing that kept his team from losing was the fact that the Ravens offense was playing far more poorly. It should have, thus, come as no surprise to me that Dalton would produce another handful of turnovers against the Chargers. I assumed that the Chargers simply weren't particularly good as they only squeaked into the playoffs because some late game blunders by the referees in their game against the Chiefs' second string players. I figured that if the Chargers weren't good enough to convincingly beat a team of backups at home, then there would be no way they'd upset a team that went unbeaten at home during the regular season. It's possible the Chargers simply looked past the Chiefs knowing that Kansas City would be sitting most of its starters. One thing is for sure: the Chargers most certainly did NOT look past the Bengals. The Chargers exposed the Bengals defense for what it truly was at this point in the football season...depleted.
The third thing I should have taken into account doesn't pertain to the Bengals game, but it does pertain to yet another game I misjudged. The Eagles were favorites at home to beat the Saints as the Saints have never won playoff game on the road in the history of their franchise. Had I simply taken a more thorough glance at various offensive and defensive units of both the Eagles and Saints, I would have picked the Saints without question. I'm embarrassed that I missed this, but the Eagles had the worst ranked pass defense in the league and the Saints had the second ranked pass defense in the league. As great as the Eagles' rushing was this season, it wasn't strong enough to operate without the serious threat of the pass. Nick Foles is a more talented young quarterback than most people give him credit, but Foles has to put up a lot of yardage and a lot of points in order to beat good teams, and there was no way Nick Foles was going to light up the second ranked pass defense in the league. It was certainly a close game, but in the end, the Eagles defense wasn't good enough to stop an elite quarterback. Oh! And had I looked but a little bit closer I would have learned that the Eagles' home record this season (4-4) was only barely better than the Saints' road record (3-5). The Saints aren't a great road playoff team, but they can definitely beat a team with the worst pass defense in the league regardless of the setting.
The fourth thing I should have taken into consideration became abundantly clear in the 49ers and Packers game. The 49ers have Michael Crabtree back healthy and that made all the difference in the world against a lackluster Packers secondary. It didn't matter that Boldin didn't have a big day because Crabtree was in rare form. I should have totally disregarded the 49ers' 30th ranked passing yards per game average because Crabtree wasn't on the field for most of the season. That statistic should have been thrown out by my old standards. I also should have taken into consideration that the 49ers are simply a more complete team than the Packers with stout defense and solid running game. The game came right down to the wire, but the 49ers were able to keep the Packers out of the endzone on Green Bay's final drive, and Green Bay wasn't able to halt the 49ers' final drive to set up the game winning score. The new pass-friendly rules have clearly not changed the time-tested adage that to win in harsh playoff environments a team needs to be able to run the ball and play stout defense.
Hats off to the Chargers, 49ers, and Saints for reminding me that the real reason I had so much success predicting playoff games in the past two seasons was the extra time I spent evaluating every little detail. I took in-depth looks at injury reports, thoroughly examined matchups, and spent hours looking at statistics. I can't promise I'll get every prediction right, but I'll do my best to stick to the methods that made my last two post-seasons of predictions so successful. Now, enough of last week, it's time to get to Saturday's games!
SATURDAY NFL PREDICTIONS
SAINTS AT SEAHAWKS
I feel a tad more confident predicting this game as the Seahawks absolutely pummeled the Saints the last time these teams met in Seattle...but somehow that makes me uneasy. To make sure that my confidence in Seattle is justified, let's take a look at some statistics, shall we?
The Seahawks haven't exactly been red-hot recently. Since their bye week, the Seattle has alternated wins and losses. To understand the Seahawks current state, we must examine their two losses over the last 5 games. The first of these losses came on the road against their biggest rival, the 49ers. This loss may have surprised some, but it didn't surprise many as the 49ers have beaten the Seahawks in close games in San Francisco in recent years even though the Seahawks absolutely obliterated the 49ers in Seattle. In this particular game, both the 49ers and Seahawks had similar passing numbers. Kaepernick and Wilson both threw for under 200 passing yards with one touchdown, one interception, and two sacks. The 49ers, however, rushed for nearly double the yards (163) that the Seahawks produced on the ground (86) and that was the difference maker in what proved to be yet another tightly contested game in San Francisco.
The next game the Seahawks lost was at home against the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals shocked the world with their 17-10 victory in Seattle as the Seahawks had gone otherwise unbeaten at home this season with what was thought to be the biggest homefield advantage in the NFL. Seattle still probably DOES have the biggest homefield advantage in the NFL, but they happened to run into the team with the first ranked run defense in the league. It didn't matter that Carson Palmer threw 4 interceptions because the Cardinals held the Seahawks to only two scoring drives in the entire game. The Cardinals also dramatically won the time of possession battle as they controlled the ball for over 37 minutes as compared to 22 minutes for the Seahawks.
Maybe the Seahawks simply had a poor undisciplined day against the Cardinals with 9 penalties for a total of 102 yards, but one thing is for certain: the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS ARE NOTHING LIKE THE 49ERS AND CARDINALS. The Saints don't typically excel at stopping the run, and that's one thing a team must do if it hopes to beat the Hawks in Seattle. The Saints have the 2 ranked pass offense in the league with an average of 307.4 passing yards per game, but the Seahawks have the #1 pass defense in the league and only allow 172 passing yards per game. It's not as though Brees hasn't thrown for big chunks of yardage on the road either as he has put up some big numbers away from New Orleans. The issue is that Brees threw 9 of the total interceptions from this season in road games, and struggled against teams with impressive defensive lines including the Rams, Panthers, Jets, and most importantly, the Seahawks!
Drew Brees didn't throw any interceptions when his team last played the Seahawks, but he didn't need to in order to lose that game. The Seahawks defensive backs absolutely blanketed the Saints receivers with coverage, and Brees threw for an uncharacteristic 144 passing yards. The Saints already don't do particularly well on the road, but the do ESPECIALLY poorly against elite pass defenses on the road, and there's no better pass defense than that of the Seahawks.
The bottom line is that the Seahawks are great at stopping the only thing that makes the Saints offense special: the pass. The Saints have the 25th ranked running game in the league, and as we learned before, a team has to be able to run the ball if it hopes to beat the Seahawks. Some might say the Saints will have more success against the Seahawks after having played them and gotten a chance to re-evaluate their game plan going into Seattle, but I simply don't believe the Saints have the defense to stop the Seahawks' running game nor strong enough rushing attack to keep the Seahawks' defense on its toes. No NFL game is a lock, but the outcome of this game appears quite clear.
FINAL PREDICTION: SEAHAWKS 27-17
COLTS AT PATRIOTS
The Patriots are not unbeatable. They have endured major blows to their roster this season including the recent losses of Brandon Spikes and Rob Gronkowski as well as the earlier losses of Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo. The Patriots, however, remain an elite team because of their incredible coaching staff. The question that remains is whether or not the Colts are a strong enough road team to take down Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in Foxboro after the Patriots have had a bye week to rest and prepare for a dome team with a second year quarterback. For the time being, forget your preconceived notions about which of these teams is better, and let's examine statistics to get a truly accurate idea of the probable outcome of this game.
The first thing that I notice as I look at the Colts' record over the course of this season is the fact that they rose to the occasion against some of the best teams in the NFL including the Broncos, 49ers, Seahawks, and Chiefs. I also notice, however, that the Colts also lost to the Dolphins, Bengals, Chargers, Cardinals, and Rams. Losing to the Bengals in Cincinnati wasn't a huge surprise given the Bengals record at home this season, but it may shed light on the type of team that tends to beat the Colts on the road OR at home.
With the exception of the Miami Dolphins, every team beat the Colts this season had a great run defense. Colts lost to teams with the 1st, 5th, 9th, and 12th ranked rush defenses. It's not as though the Colts have a great rushing attack. The Colts, in fact, ranked 21st in rushing yards during the regular season, but the recent emergence of Donald Brown has brought life to their ground game over the past month. Brown hasn't had a ton of carries, but he has averaged an impressive 5.3 yards per carry on the season and 5 yards per carry last week against the Chiefs. It's not surprising, therefore, that in the aforementioned 4 losses to teams with elite run defenses, Donald Brown was held to an average of 1.95 yards per carry. It's clear to me that the loss of Reggie Wayne earlier this season has meant that the Colts have relied on at least the threat of the run to help open things up for their passing game without their most reliable receiving weapon. The Colts defense, after all, isn't elite. They a respectable 13th in pass defense, but near the bottom of the league in rush defense at #26.
More important than their overall defensive ranking is the Colts' level of defensive play on the road. This game is, after all, going to played far away from the controlled temperature and Colt-friendly crowd of Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts played well in their last road game against the slumping Chiefs, but I'd rather not look at their performance against a slumping team in order to help predict how they'll do against the Patriots. The Colts last road game against a winning team was against the Bengals in Cincinnati. Andrew Luck actually had a great game, but his defense most certainly did not. Despite Luck's 4 touchdown passes and 326 passing yards, the Bengals won because the Colts couldn't stop the Bengals ground attack that put up 155 yards and allowed the Bengals to dominate the time of possession battle.
Unfortunately for the Colts, the Patriots also have an elite (9th ranked) running game to compliment their 10th ranked passing attack. What the Patriots DON'T have is a great run defense. The Patriots rank near last in the league at stopping the run, and they struggled two weeks ago to stop the Bills from running the football as the Bills put up 169 yards and and 393 total offensive yards. The more amazing aspect to those stats is that Bills game was played in Foxboro. The Patriots still managed to beat the Bills by two touchdowns, but the the vulnerability against the run remains apparent.
The Colts and Patriots aren't ultimately that different. They both have great quarterbacks, but the Patriots' quarterback better. They both have the ability to run the ball, but the Patriots run the ball better. Both teams struggle to stop the run, but fare better against the pass. The Patriots are unquestionably better at moving the ball on offense while the Colts are marginally better on defense. Two things, however, give the Patriots a serious upper hand in this game. The first is the fact that the Patriots have major homefield advantage against a dome team with a young quarterback with only a single home playoff win under his belt. The second major advantage is that he Patriots are well rested despite their list of major offensive and defensive weapons that have gone down with injuries this season. With the exception of one road loss to the Miami Dolphins, the Patriots have only lost to teams with strong defenses this season. The Colts defense allowed 44 points AT HOME last week, I have a hard time believing that Andrew Luck will have nearly the same fortune of facing a team that could collapse offensively the same way the Chiefs did in the wild card round.
The Patriots are undefeated at home this weekend, they're well rested, and the only non-divisional opponents they've lost to this season have had elite defenses...and even those losses came right down to the wire (especially the controversial loss in North Carolina). The Colts found some luck last week against a team that did everything it could to give the game away in the second half. This is the point at which their luck runs out. Aqip Talib will take away T.Y. Hilton and that will be enough to slow down the Colts' offense. The Patriots will have little trouble putting together a balanced offensive attack against a porous Colts defense in Foxboro.
FINAL PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 38-21.
If all goes as I predicted, I shouldn't pat myself on the back to much as Sunday's games bring much bigger tests of my analytical and predictive abilities. Regardless, I'll take any win I can get after going 1-3 last weekend. This weekend is about redemption, and hopefully I'll gain that redemption using more thorough examination of each upcoming game.
On a Ravens related note, I'd like to address some things that were stated in the State of the Ravens press conference earlier this week. Yes, Ozzie isn't afraid to cut great players, and, yes, Terrell Suggs could ultimately end up not being a Raven next season if his contract situation isn't taken care of in the off-season. I believe, however, that Suggs wants to follow in his mentor's footsteps and retire a Raven. Age isn't catching up to Suggs at all. This season actually isn't entirely uncharacteristic for him. Suggs actually has had up and down years for the Ravens since he's been in the league, and a season in which you record 10 sacks is not a down season...even if his stats dropped off in the second half of the year. I'm confident that Suggs will be amicable regarding a contract extension because an extension ultimately benefits both parties. There's still the danger that Suggs could be insulted by the prospect of a pay cut for next season, but he also shouldn't be too surprised given the fact that he did unquestionably take a major dip in performance in the second half of the season after appearing to be a candidate for defensive player of the year in the first half.
The Ravens most likely won't keep James Ihedigbo, Arthur Jones, Jacoby Jones, Ed Dickson, Dallas Clark, or Michael Oher. The only one out of that group that I truly hope the Ravens retain is Jacoby Jones. Jones is approaching 30 and has never put up elite receiving statistics, but he came in clutch for the Ravens once he recovered from his early season injury. There's truly no better return man in the came than Jacoby Jones. As my family members can tell you, there were numerous occasions this season where the Ravens were in tight games and I happened mutter "jeez, we could really use a huge return from Jacoby right now", and that's exactly what he gave us. No, I don't have a crystal ball, but Jones is simply that much of a threat to go yard pretty much any time he returns a kick or punt. That kind of explosive potential is something that the Ravens simply can't afford to lose right now. If I were in charge of the Ravens off-season moves, I'd find a way to extend Jones' contract by a year in an effort to lower his cap number and create more space to help sign players such as Eugene Monroe, Daryl Smith, and Dennis Pitta.
Ozzie Newsome's decision making isn't perfect, but it's still nearly the best in the league if not the best overall. The Ravens already have 2 Super Bowls in 18 seasons and it says something about their standards that 8 wins and barely missing the playoffs is an incredible disappointment despite incredible roster changes and losses. Juan Castillo did a poor job this season, but there's no way the Ravens are going to stand for him utilizing that same system again this season. If somehow they do, Steve Bisciotti will fire him and hold John Harbaugh totally responsible. With that said, let's see what happens with the offensive coordinator position and how the Ravens fare in the draft and the free agent market. It's entirely possible that with better personnel and pressure to fix things, Juan Castillo may actually do a total 180 and turns things around for Flacco's protection and the Ravens running game.
LET'S HOPE FOR SOME PLAYOFF MAGIC TOMORROW
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS (GET SOME NEW LINEMAN AND A NEW WR!!!)
Sunday, January 5, 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PREDICTION: 49ERS-PACKERS
I must apologize for not posting my Bengals-Chargers prediction. I attempted to put far more time and thought into that prediction after spending less time on my Saints-Eagles analysis and winding up being incorrect. I did, however, post my Bengals-Chargers score prediction on Facebook shortly before the game just for the record.
I'm writing to you now while watching the Bengals-Chargers game, but I believe the game I'll be writing about will be far more interesting. The Packers are in a rather interesting situation at this point in the year as they played such a sizable chunk of their season without Aaron Rodgers and somehow made their way into the playoffs anyway. Ultimately, I believe Rodgers absence strengthened the Packers as it forced them to find ways to win without their most important player. That, however, in no way makes this game a slam dunk in favor of Green Bay.
The most unusual factor that makes this game difficult to predict is the possibility that the 49ers switch back to read-option offense. The 49ers experienced a tremendous amount of success last season after Colin Kaepernick replaced Alex Smith and the 49ers utilized the read-option to score their way to a Super Bowl appearance against the Ravens. The 49ers, however, went away from the read-option in the regular season as it puts the quarterback in a vulnerable position when choosing to run the football. The knee injuries endured by Robert Griffin the 3rd served as warning to the 49ers about what can happen to even the most athletic of quarterbacks if teams take their chances running the read-option.
The second major unusual factor to this game is the impending arctic conditions that look to be some of the coldest in NFL history. The temperature appears as though it will be quite low at 5 degrees at the start of the game. The wind chill, however, figures to make this game feel vastly colder, and thus, high winds could heavily affect the direction and length of passes. I heard Scott Garceau from 105.7 The Fan explain that the 49ers with a stout defense and hard-nosed running game are built for tough road playoff games. That may be true, but to truly develop a good idea of who has an edge going into this game, we'll have to take a closer look at a few other major factors.
Possibly the most important factor going into this game is the health of each team's personnel for each team. If you'll recall, last year I predicted that the 49ers defense would struggle to get to Joe Flacco because Justin Smith was essentially operating with one arm as his other arm had a partially torn triceps tendon. That proved correct as the Ravens put up over 30 points on a previously dominant 49ers defense. Over the course of the last week, Justin Smith once again missed a large amount of practice, but he's listed as probable for the game and that's absolutely huge. Aldon Smith's ability to rush the passer suffers without Justin Smith eating up blocks in the middle.
San Francisco's defense is elite once more this season as they rank 5th in the NFL in total yards allowed per game. That defense will come in handy when facing a Green Bay team that has somehow managed to rank 6th in passing yards and 7th in average rushing yards per game this season despite the extended absence of Aaron Rodgers.
This, like the Colts game is one where statistical analysis is tough to rely upon for the Packers because so very much of the team's statistics were recorded with their most valuable player gone. It is for this reason that I'll have to go make my prediction based on less mathematical factors...and that makes me totally uneasy. I already got the Eagles game incorrect possibly because of a lack of in-depth statistical analysis. I would like to utilize more statistical analysis for this game, but it simply doesn't make sense to do so for either team's offense. After all, 49ers could run the read-option and their offensive numbers collected over the course of the season wouldn't mean much for a prediction of this game.
The Packers struggled against the 49ers in the playoffs last year as their offense lacked the balance needed to attack a strong San Francisco defense. The Packers now have far more offensive balance with an elite running back, Eddie Lacy, and great firepower with the return of Rodgers. The 49ers are an elite running team, but they lack the power through the air that they possessed last season. This season the 49ers have the 30th ranked pass offense, and they'll be particularly bad playing in frigid weather with high winds. Anquan Boldin had a great game against the Packers in the season opener, but Kaepernick may have tough time simply delivering him the ball on a night like this.
In the end, I must go with the home team in this matchup. The Packers are used to this weather like almost no other team in the league. Rodgers showed us last week why he's an elite quarterback, and I have faith that that he'll take care of business tonight.
PACKERS 24-21
I ONCE AGAIN APOLOGIZE FOR THE TIMING OF THIS POST. THE BENGALS AND EAGLES MADE A FOOL OUT OF ME AND I'M NOW 1-2 AND OFF TO MY WORST PREDICTION START OF THE HISTORY OF PURPLE NIGHTMARE. LET'S HOPE TONIGHT BRINGS BETTER LUCK.
I'm writing to you now while watching the Bengals-Chargers game, but I believe the game I'll be writing about will be far more interesting. The Packers are in a rather interesting situation at this point in the year as they played such a sizable chunk of their season without Aaron Rodgers and somehow made their way into the playoffs anyway. Ultimately, I believe Rodgers absence strengthened the Packers as it forced them to find ways to win without their most important player. That, however, in no way makes this game a slam dunk in favor of Green Bay.
The most unusual factor that makes this game difficult to predict is the possibility that the 49ers switch back to read-option offense. The 49ers experienced a tremendous amount of success last season after Colin Kaepernick replaced Alex Smith and the 49ers utilized the read-option to score their way to a Super Bowl appearance against the Ravens. The 49ers, however, went away from the read-option in the regular season as it puts the quarterback in a vulnerable position when choosing to run the football. The knee injuries endured by Robert Griffin the 3rd served as warning to the 49ers about what can happen to even the most athletic of quarterbacks if teams take their chances running the read-option.
The second major unusual factor to this game is the impending arctic conditions that look to be some of the coldest in NFL history. The temperature appears as though it will be quite low at 5 degrees at the start of the game. The wind chill, however, figures to make this game feel vastly colder, and thus, high winds could heavily affect the direction and length of passes. I heard Scott Garceau from 105.7 The Fan explain that the 49ers with a stout defense and hard-nosed running game are built for tough road playoff games. That may be true, but to truly develop a good idea of who has an edge going into this game, we'll have to take a closer look at a few other major factors.
Possibly the most important factor going into this game is the health of each team's personnel for each team. If you'll recall, last year I predicted that the 49ers defense would struggle to get to Joe Flacco because Justin Smith was essentially operating with one arm as his other arm had a partially torn triceps tendon. That proved correct as the Ravens put up over 30 points on a previously dominant 49ers defense. Over the course of the last week, Justin Smith once again missed a large amount of practice, but he's listed as probable for the game and that's absolutely huge. Aldon Smith's ability to rush the passer suffers without Justin Smith eating up blocks in the middle.
San Francisco's defense is elite once more this season as they rank 5th in the NFL in total yards allowed per game. That defense will come in handy when facing a Green Bay team that has somehow managed to rank 6th in passing yards and 7th in average rushing yards per game this season despite the extended absence of Aaron Rodgers.
This, like the Colts game is one where statistical analysis is tough to rely upon for the Packers because so very much of the team's statistics were recorded with their most valuable player gone. It is for this reason that I'll have to go make my prediction based on less mathematical factors...and that makes me totally uneasy. I already got the Eagles game incorrect possibly because of a lack of in-depth statistical analysis. I would like to utilize more statistical analysis for this game, but it simply doesn't make sense to do so for either team's offense. After all, 49ers could run the read-option and their offensive numbers collected over the course of the season wouldn't mean much for a prediction of this game.
The Packers struggled against the 49ers in the playoffs last year as their offense lacked the balance needed to attack a strong San Francisco defense. The Packers now have far more offensive balance with an elite running back, Eddie Lacy, and great firepower with the return of Rodgers. The 49ers are an elite running team, but they lack the power through the air that they possessed last season. This season the 49ers have the 30th ranked pass offense, and they'll be particularly bad playing in frigid weather with high winds. Anquan Boldin had a great game against the Packers in the season opener, but Kaepernick may have tough time simply delivering him the ball on a night like this.
In the end, I must go with the home team in this matchup. The Packers are used to this weather like almost no other team in the league. Rodgers showed us last week why he's an elite quarterback, and I have faith that that he'll take care of business tonight.
PACKERS 24-21
I ONCE AGAIN APOLOGIZE FOR THE TIMING OF THIS POST. THE BENGALS AND EAGLES MADE A FOOL OUT OF ME AND I'M NOW 1-2 AND OFF TO MY WORST PREDICTION START OF THE HISTORY OF PURPLE NIGHTMARE. LET'S HOPE TONIGHT BRINGS BETTER LUCK.
Saturday, January 4, 2014
NFL WILDCARD PREDICTIONS: SATURDAY GAMES
The NFL post-season is upon us once more. The Ravens won't be a part of the playoffs this time around, but I hope that Ravens Nation has accepted that fact and is looking forward to the upcoming draft and free agent acquisitions that the Ravens can use to strengthen their roster for next season. Let us put aside for the next month our hopes and worries about the Ravens, and let us, as football fans, simply kick back and enjoy the bone-crushing hits, toe-tapping touchdown passes, heart-stopping last second field goals that made us fall in love with this sport in first place!
The playoffs hold special significance for me as a blogger because they give me a chance to take more a in-depth look at a smaller number of games. My success rate prediction playoff games is dramatically higher (my all-time record is 20-2) than that of my regular season predictions (I get about 67-70% of those correct on any given year) because I have the benefit of an entire season's worth of statistics with which to work. A bigger sample size of any particular statistical category tends to be more useful when making predictions, but that's no secret. The real tricks are determining which statistics are relevant and learning to totally ignore those which are not. Those abilities are what have set Purple Nightmare apart from the rest of the world of NFL predictions for the last 2 years. Thus far, I've frequently picked against Las Vegas oddsmakers and only got one game wrong in each of the last two post-seasons. Let's see if this season will yield the same success.
NFL WILDCARD PREDICTIONS: SATURDAY
CHIEFS AT COLTS
The Colts are a great example of why one needs to be particularly discerning when selecting which statistics to utilizes for predictive analysis. The Colts had essentially two phases to their 2013 regular season: Phase #1 with Reggie Wayne, and Phase #2 without Reggie Wayne. Wayne was unquestionably the best receiving weapon on the Colts' roster, and his season-ending injury during the Colts' win over the Broncos means that we must only utilize statistics recorded after Indianapolis' bye week.
Unfortunately for our statistical analysis, predicting this game will require far less research than most other playoffs games because the Colts and Chiefs just played one another in Kansas City a few weeks ago...and the Colts won big time. This game is less about how the Colts have done recently, and more about how the Chiefs have performed when facing actual playoff teams.
The Kansas City Chiefs have, during the last 7 weeks, only beaten two of the worst teams in the league, the Redskins and Raiders. Other than the Raiders and Redskins, the Chiefs have only faced playoff teams since their bye week and lost to each one of them. That isn't to say that the Chiefs have looked awful during that time period. Kansas City even should have, in the opinion of many, beaten or at least had the chance to beat the Chargers last week but did not do so because of glaring officiating errors. What made the Chief's overtime loss to the Chargers so impressive was the fact that the Chiefs sat most of their key players while San Diego played its starters.
It could be that the Chiefs will come out with a strong effort against the Colts after having sat their starters for the final week of the regular season, and it could be that the Chiefs are much better than many of us expected given how well their second string played against the Chargers in San Diego. I, however, believe the close game against the Chargers had more to do with the Chargers' preparatory apathy towards a game in which they assumed they'd be facing weak players, than the actual strength of the Chiefs.
The Colts appeared to have had the Chiefs figured out in their recent meeting in Kansas City. The Chiefs defense appeared to be extremely strong earlier in the season, but has surrendered an startling amount of points since they began facing serious teams. The Chiefs have, in fact, allowed an average of 27 points per game in their last seven games. Yes, it's true that the Chiefs have suffered through injuries to some of their defensive stars, but some of those injured players such as Tamba Hali remain questionable leading up to tomorrow's game. I'm sure Tamba Hai and Justin Houston will play, but their play won't be enough to give the Chiefs their first win over a team with a winning record this season...on the road...against a team that beat them 23-7 only a few weeks ago. I'd like to be able to work in more statistics to this one, but the most important stats are the most obvious ones: the Chiefs are 0-5 against playoff teams since their bye week, and the Chiefs already lost to the Colts recently.
The absence of Reggie Wayne may have actually been a blessing in disguise for Indianapolis. The future hall-of-famer's knee injury has forced the Colts to figure out how to utilize younger receiving weapons and their rushing attack to score. It's not that Andrew Luck and company are unbeatable. They've lost 2 games at home this season, and have looked uneven at times. The Colts have, nevertheless, taken down almost all of the league's most elite teams including the Broncos, Chiefs, Seahawks, and 49ers. They beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium, and they'll beat them in Lucas Oil too. The Chiefs will be more well rested, however, so this one should be more competitive.
PREDICTION: COLTS 27-21.
SAINTS AT EAGLES
I'm sorry to say that this game also doesn't warrant a ton of different types of statistical analysis. The Saints have, at times, appears to be a dominant team this season. They have, however, not looked dominant on the road. The Saints have only won 3 road games this season, and not a single one came against a playoff team. The Saints have, in fact, only won one road game since their Week 7 bye and that road game was against the lowly Atlanta Falcons--and the Saints only BARELY won. Since then, the Saints have faced the Seahawks, Rams, and Panthers on the road, and they've given up an average of 26 points per game in each of those three contests while only scoring an average of 12 points per game. Hell, even if we include the Saints' road win against the Falcons in our statistics of their road wins after the bye week, the Saints still only scored an average 13.25 points per game while still allowing 22.75 points per game.
The Saints as an organization have never won a road playoff game and this weekend won't break that trend. Weather conditions in Philadelphia should be fairly poor for a dome team such as the Saints. Such weather could only favor an Eagles offense that appears to play incredibly well when conditions are sloppy. Lesean McCoy is having a career year, and Nick Foles has played efficiently and with few errors. The Eagles don't have an amazing defense, but the Saints offense is simply to poor on the road to keep up with Chip Kelly's scoring machine. The Eagles have scored an average of 33.25 points per game in the second half of the regular season while allowing an average of 21.375 points per game. The moral of this story? Forget how the Saints perform at home because it means nothing regarding how they'll do on the road and especially the road in the playoffs.
PREDICTION: EAGLES 31-23.
I'm excited to watch the first round of NFL playoff games, but I must admit that I'm much more excited about what Sunday has in store for viewers. No, I don't believe the Chargers are going to win in Cincinnati, but I'm thoroughly excited about seeing the 49ers take on the Packers what is shaping up to be one of the coldest playoff games on record.
GET READY FOR THE PLAYOFFS, FOOTBALL FANS!!!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS (NEXT YEAR)!!!
The playoffs hold special significance for me as a blogger because they give me a chance to take more a in-depth look at a smaller number of games. My success rate prediction playoff games is dramatically higher (my all-time record is 20-2) than that of my regular season predictions (I get about 67-70% of those correct on any given year) because I have the benefit of an entire season's worth of statistics with which to work. A bigger sample size of any particular statistical category tends to be more useful when making predictions, but that's no secret. The real tricks are determining which statistics are relevant and learning to totally ignore those which are not. Those abilities are what have set Purple Nightmare apart from the rest of the world of NFL predictions for the last 2 years. Thus far, I've frequently picked against Las Vegas oddsmakers and only got one game wrong in each of the last two post-seasons. Let's see if this season will yield the same success.
NFL WILDCARD PREDICTIONS: SATURDAY
CHIEFS AT COLTS
The Colts are a great example of why one needs to be particularly discerning when selecting which statistics to utilizes for predictive analysis. The Colts had essentially two phases to their 2013 regular season: Phase #1 with Reggie Wayne, and Phase #2 without Reggie Wayne. Wayne was unquestionably the best receiving weapon on the Colts' roster, and his season-ending injury during the Colts' win over the Broncos means that we must only utilize statistics recorded after Indianapolis' bye week.
Unfortunately for our statistical analysis, predicting this game will require far less research than most other playoffs games because the Colts and Chiefs just played one another in Kansas City a few weeks ago...and the Colts won big time. This game is less about how the Colts have done recently, and more about how the Chiefs have performed when facing actual playoff teams.
The Kansas City Chiefs have, during the last 7 weeks, only beaten two of the worst teams in the league, the Redskins and Raiders. Other than the Raiders and Redskins, the Chiefs have only faced playoff teams since their bye week and lost to each one of them. That isn't to say that the Chiefs have looked awful during that time period. Kansas City even should have, in the opinion of many, beaten or at least had the chance to beat the Chargers last week but did not do so because of glaring officiating errors. What made the Chief's overtime loss to the Chargers so impressive was the fact that the Chiefs sat most of their key players while San Diego played its starters.
It could be that the Chiefs will come out with a strong effort against the Colts after having sat their starters for the final week of the regular season, and it could be that the Chiefs are much better than many of us expected given how well their second string played against the Chargers in San Diego. I, however, believe the close game against the Chargers had more to do with the Chargers' preparatory apathy towards a game in which they assumed they'd be facing weak players, than the actual strength of the Chiefs.
The Colts appeared to have had the Chiefs figured out in their recent meeting in Kansas City. The Chiefs defense appeared to be extremely strong earlier in the season, but has surrendered an startling amount of points since they began facing serious teams. The Chiefs have, in fact, allowed an average of 27 points per game in their last seven games. Yes, it's true that the Chiefs have suffered through injuries to some of their defensive stars, but some of those injured players such as Tamba Hali remain questionable leading up to tomorrow's game. I'm sure Tamba Hai and Justin Houston will play, but their play won't be enough to give the Chiefs their first win over a team with a winning record this season...on the road...against a team that beat them 23-7 only a few weeks ago. I'd like to be able to work in more statistics to this one, but the most important stats are the most obvious ones: the Chiefs are 0-5 against playoff teams since their bye week, and the Chiefs already lost to the Colts recently.
The absence of Reggie Wayne may have actually been a blessing in disguise for Indianapolis. The future hall-of-famer's knee injury has forced the Colts to figure out how to utilize younger receiving weapons and their rushing attack to score. It's not that Andrew Luck and company are unbeatable. They've lost 2 games at home this season, and have looked uneven at times. The Colts have, nevertheless, taken down almost all of the league's most elite teams including the Broncos, Chiefs, Seahawks, and 49ers. They beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium, and they'll beat them in Lucas Oil too. The Chiefs will be more well rested, however, so this one should be more competitive.
PREDICTION: COLTS 27-21.
SAINTS AT EAGLES
I'm sorry to say that this game also doesn't warrant a ton of different types of statistical analysis. The Saints have, at times, appears to be a dominant team this season. They have, however, not looked dominant on the road. The Saints have only won 3 road games this season, and not a single one came against a playoff team. The Saints have, in fact, only won one road game since their Week 7 bye and that road game was against the lowly Atlanta Falcons--and the Saints only BARELY won. Since then, the Saints have faced the Seahawks, Rams, and Panthers on the road, and they've given up an average of 26 points per game in each of those three contests while only scoring an average of 12 points per game. Hell, even if we include the Saints' road win against the Falcons in our statistics of their road wins after the bye week, the Saints still only scored an average 13.25 points per game while still allowing 22.75 points per game.
The Saints as an organization have never won a road playoff game and this weekend won't break that trend. Weather conditions in Philadelphia should be fairly poor for a dome team such as the Saints. Such weather could only favor an Eagles offense that appears to play incredibly well when conditions are sloppy. Lesean McCoy is having a career year, and Nick Foles has played efficiently and with few errors. The Eagles don't have an amazing defense, but the Saints offense is simply to poor on the road to keep up with Chip Kelly's scoring machine. The Eagles have scored an average of 33.25 points per game in the second half of the regular season while allowing an average of 21.375 points per game. The moral of this story? Forget how the Saints perform at home because it means nothing regarding how they'll do on the road and especially the road in the playoffs.
PREDICTION: EAGLES 31-23.
I'm excited to watch the first round of NFL playoff games, but I must admit that I'm much more excited about what Sunday has in store for viewers. No, I don't believe the Chargers are going to win in Cincinnati, but I'm thoroughly excited about seeing the 49ers take on the Packers what is shaping up to be one of the coldest playoff games on record.
GET READY FOR THE PLAYOFFS, FOOTBALL FANS!!!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS (NEXT YEAR)!!!
Sunday, December 29, 2013
RAVENS 2013 SEASON ROUND-UP: IS THERE LIGHTS AT THE END OF THIS TUNNEL?
I truly wish I hadn't gone 14-2 in my final regular season predictions on Sunday. I tried to suspend my Purple and Black bias a lot more this season, and as a result, I had to go with my brain and not my heart when predicting that the Ravens would lose 28-17. Well they didn't lose 28-17...they lost 34-17 after being tied at 17 in the 3rd quarter. Keeping the game close through 3 quarters didn't matter in the end, however, as the same problems that plagued the Ravens for almost the entire season were once again evident in Cincinnati. The Ravens never established a legitimate running attack, Joe Flacco sustained a handful of brutal hits as the result of poor pass protection, and the Ravens once again stalled in almost all of their trips to the redzone and were forced to settle for field goals. It didn't matter that the defense picked off Andy Dalton 4 times, and it didn't matter that A.J. Green was once again held well under 100 yards receiving. The Ravens simply didn't possess an offensive recipe for success this season.
In all likelihood, the Ravens would not have gone far in the playoffs even if they somehow found a way to take the lead late in the game and hold on to beat a dangerous Bengals team. The problems the Ravens frequently encountered would still be present the following week, and they may very well have actually been compounded. Consider, for a moment, a scenario where the Ravens defensive backs picked off Andy Dalton one or two more times and taken at least one of those interceptions back for a touchdown late in the game. The Ravens could have gone on to win the contest, but Flacco would have emerged even more battered and injured than he was at kickoff. Then consider that the Bengals would have likely hosted the Ravens the next week, and the Ravens would have had to face the Bengals with a more complete roster. If you recall, the Bengals played the Ravens without their two starting tight ends and one of their starting cornerbacks. Even if the Ravens would have somehow won the game, they would have had to face a Bengals receiving corps stacked with even more weapons.
The Ravens did NOT beat the Bengals, and now Baltimore has some tough personnel decisions in front of them if they wish to return to the post-season in 2014. The first decision is a no-brainer: fire and replace Juan Castillo. I would hope that this move wouldn't require much explanation at this point as the Ravens rushing attack reached historic lows in 2013 and Ray Rice turned from the NFL's best all-purpose weapon of the previous 4 seasons into one of the most disappointing players of the year. One could point to Rice's nagging hip injury as a reason for his struggles, but Bernard Pierce had no such injury and found little success himself. The Ravens could consider giving the job BACK to the man who held it before Castillo as that man was never actually fired. Andy Moeller was demoted from offensive line coach to assistant offensive line coach after the Ravens hired Castillo to be the "run game coordinator" and then ultimately offensive line coach for the 2013 season. Despite Moeller's brush with the law, he was simply better at his job than Castillo, and if the Ravens don't want to give him a second chance, they need to find someone equally or more qualified to restore the Ravens offensive line and running game to their respective old, dominant forms.
The next major decision the Ravens must make is how to allocate their salary cap money. This is far more complicated than simply one decision, but the Ravens front office should begin their evaluation of their roster from top of the earner's list. Despite his highly publicized contract, Joe Flacco actually doesn't have the highest salary cap number on the team for next season; that number actually belongs to Haloti Ngata. If his contract is left as it currently stands, the Haloti Ngata's cap number for 2014 will be 16 million dollars. That is an astronomical number for a player who has struggled to stay healthy for the last 3 seasons and isn't even the best defensive player on the team. I heard a caller on 105.7 The Fan actually pose an interesting idea 4 nights ago. The caller suggested that the Ravens should find a team with a good amount of salary cap space and a high draft pick such as the Raiders. If the Ravens could deal Ngata to a team such as the Raiders for a 1st or high 2nd round draft pick, they would have more than enough room to give Arthur Jones a well-deserved long term contract and still have at least 10 million dollars in extra cap space left over to help accommodate for the moderate rise in the cap number of Joe Flacco as well as players such as Lardarius Webb. The Ravens also need such extra room to offer Dennis Pitta, Eugene Monroe, and Torrey Smith new contracts. The 16 million dollars from a Haloti Ngata trade/salary dump wouldn't take care of the contracts for ALL of these players, but it would certainly take care of a massive chunk of the Ravens' financial issues.
So thus far we've covered coaching changes and player contract issues, but there's another major issue that only became more apparent in the Bengals game on Sunday. The Ravens no longer have a legitimate free safety. Matt Elam and James Ihedigbo performed reasonably well this season, but both players are ideally suited to play strong safety. For over a decade, the Ravens had history's greatest free safety patrolling the secondary, and that meant seldom seeing the birds of Baltimore get torched by deep passes over the middle of the field. A.J. Green did exactly that against Matt Elam on a play that made the rookie look like he decided to take a nap while one of the NFL's best receivers glided effortlessly past him for a wide-open touchdown grab. James Ihedigbo actually impressed me quite a bit this season, but he's also due for another contract, and there's a good chance he finds one elsewhere based on his experience level and strong performance as a starter in 2013. This means the Ravens may have to turn to the draft to find the ACTUAL replacement for Ed Reed. That's a lot easier said than done, because again, Ed Reed was history's greatest free safety. The Ravens, nevertheless, will have to find serious talent at the position or simply get Lardarius Webb to bulk up 15-20 pounds and switch positions.
The Ravens will also have to turn to the draft to find a replacement for Michael Oher. Oher is unquestionably gone next season as he was the NFL's most penalized player as of the Thanksgiving night game this season. The Ravens could either replace Oher with a talented and hopefully more disciplined right tackle in the draft, or they could elect to slide Kelechi Osemele to right tackle and draft another left guard. However they elect to repair and bolster the offensive line, the Ravens will need to utilize the draft to do so since they can't afford to give long term contracts to both Michael Oher AND Eugene Monroe. The Ravens also need to decide what to do at the center position. Gino Gradkowski simply isn't strong or talented enough to be the leader of the offensive line. It's possible that he could work extremely hard and come back bigger, strong, and wiser next season, but I wouldn't count on it. It should come as no surprise to Ravens fans if Ozzie Newsome and Eric Decosta decide to use their first or second round pick on a center.
There are probably dozens of contract decisions we could continue to go over and dozens more that we probably aren't even aware of which the Ravens front office will find themselves faced with over the course of the next few months. Hopefully this season serves as a wake-up call to Harbaugh and Ozzie. They attempted to avoid a Super Bowl hangover by taking a polar opposite strategy of that used after the Ravens won their first Super Bowl. In 2001, the Ravens organization tried whatever they could to restructure salaries to keep their Super Bowl team from the year before together. That strategy failed as the centerpiece of that team's offense, Jamaal Lewis, suffered a season-ending injury before the beginning of the regular season and the Ravens ended up being bounced from the playoffs by the Steelers.
In 2013, the Ravens front office decided to turn over the Ravens roster to an extreme degree as they got rid of players that most fans and analysts believed had earned their spots on the team. Sure, Paul Kruger and Dannell Ellerbe became too expensive for the Ravens to keep, but Anquan Boldin performed too well once he was finally put in the slot last season and the Ravens learned how to correctly use him. The decision to let Ed Reed go proved a good one off the bat as the Texans paid him entirely too much money when he clearly hadn't yet recovered from his off-season hip surgery. After he was cut, however, Ed Reed could have been a valuable asset to the Ravens considering their issues at the free safety position. Case in point: Ed Reed had 3 interceptions in his 6 games with the Jets this season. We can only wonder what he could have done for the Ravens if brought back into the defensive back the rotation down the stretch--but now we'll never know.
This isn't a time to second guess the Ravens decisions, but to simply evaluate them, learn from them, and move on. I'm actually quite excited about a number of things for the Ravens in 2014. Marlon Brown is going to be a touchdown machine, and the Ravens can finally see what Aaron Mellette and Matt Furstenburg can do for receiving depth. The Ravens also will finally have a good draft spot as this will be the first season in over half a decade where they won't pick near the end of the draft order. Jimmy Smith will likely continue to develop into a Pro Bowl cornerback if he stays healthy next season, and Lardarius Webb will hopefully continue his return to his shut-down form from prior to his most recent knee injury. Hopefully the Ravens will be able to re-sign Dennis Pitta, and he'll have a breakout season with a healthy Flacco and a revamped offensive line. Last, but certainly not least, Ray Rice will hopefully take his rehab and training seriously and return to his old form for at least another season or two. Missing the playoffs is painful, but that seems to be the price that every Super Bowl Champion pays nowadays. Maybe we were all spoiled with a spectacular storybook ending to Ray Lewis' career, and maybe their luck from early 2013 simply ran out in the last couple of weeks. They won't repeat as Super Bowl Champions, but that doesn't mean they won't be back soon...
THE RAVENS 2013 SEASON IS OVER, BUT RAVENS NATION STANDS AS PROUD AS EVER OF THEIR CITY AND THEIR TEAM. THE RAVENS WILL BE BACK IN A BIG WAY IN 2014. UNTIL THEN, WE AS FOOTBALL FANS CAN SIT BACK AND ENJOY THE PLAYOFFS.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS...DRAFT SOME LINEMEN!
In all likelihood, the Ravens would not have gone far in the playoffs even if they somehow found a way to take the lead late in the game and hold on to beat a dangerous Bengals team. The problems the Ravens frequently encountered would still be present the following week, and they may very well have actually been compounded. Consider, for a moment, a scenario where the Ravens defensive backs picked off Andy Dalton one or two more times and taken at least one of those interceptions back for a touchdown late in the game. The Ravens could have gone on to win the contest, but Flacco would have emerged even more battered and injured than he was at kickoff. Then consider that the Bengals would have likely hosted the Ravens the next week, and the Ravens would have had to face the Bengals with a more complete roster. If you recall, the Bengals played the Ravens without their two starting tight ends and one of their starting cornerbacks. Even if the Ravens would have somehow won the game, they would have had to face a Bengals receiving corps stacked with even more weapons.
The Ravens did NOT beat the Bengals, and now Baltimore has some tough personnel decisions in front of them if they wish to return to the post-season in 2014. The first decision is a no-brainer: fire and replace Juan Castillo. I would hope that this move wouldn't require much explanation at this point as the Ravens rushing attack reached historic lows in 2013 and Ray Rice turned from the NFL's best all-purpose weapon of the previous 4 seasons into one of the most disappointing players of the year. One could point to Rice's nagging hip injury as a reason for his struggles, but Bernard Pierce had no such injury and found little success himself. The Ravens could consider giving the job BACK to the man who held it before Castillo as that man was never actually fired. Andy Moeller was demoted from offensive line coach to assistant offensive line coach after the Ravens hired Castillo to be the "run game coordinator" and then ultimately offensive line coach for the 2013 season. Despite Moeller's brush with the law, he was simply better at his job than Castillo, and if the Ravens don't want to give him a second chance, they need to find someone equally or more qualified to restore the Ravens offensive line and running game to their respective old, dominant forms.
The next major decision the Ravens must make is how to allocate their salary cap money. This is far more complicated than simply one decision, but the Ravens front office should begin their evaluation of their roster from top of the earner's list. Despite his highly publicized contract, Joe Flacco actually doesn't have the highest salary cap number on the team for next season; that number actually belongs to Haloti Ngata. If his contract is left as it currently stands, the Haloti Ngata's cap number for 2014 will be 16 million dollars. That is an astronomical number for a player who has struggled to stay healthy for the last 3 seasons and isn't even the best defensive player on the team. I heard a caller on 105.7 The Fan actually pose an interesting idea 4 nights ago. The caller suggested that the Ravens should find a team with a good amount of salary cap space and a high draft pick such as the Raiders. If the Ravens could deal Ngata to a team such as the Raiders for a 1st or high 2nd round draft pick, they would have more than enough room to give Arthur Jones a well-deserved long term contract and still have at least 10 million dollars in extra cap space left over to help accommodate for the moderate rise in the cap number of Joe Flacco as well as players such as Lardarius Webb. The Ravens also need such extra room to offer Dennis Pitta, Eugene Monroe, and Torrey Smith new contracts. The 16 million dollars from a Haloti Ngata trade/salary dump wouldn't take care of the contracts for ALL of these players, but it would certainly take care of a massive chunk of the Ravens' financial issues.
So thus far we've covered coaching changes and player contract issues, but there's another major issue that only became more apparent in the Bengals game on Sunday. The Ravens no longer have a legitimate free safety. Matt Elam and James Ihedigbo performed reasonably well this season, but both players are ideally suited to play strong safety. For over a decade, the Ravens had history's greatest free safety patrolling the secondary, and that meant seldom seeing the birds of Baltimore get torched by deep passes over the middle of the field. A.J. Green did exactly that against Matt Elam on a play that made the rookie look like he decided to take a nap while one of the NFL's best receivers glided effortlessly past him for a wide-open touchdown grab. James Ihedigbo actually impressed me quite a bit this season, but he's also due for another contract, and there's a good chance he finds one elsewhere based on his experience level and strong performance as a starter in 2013. This means the Ravens may have to turn to the draft to find the ACTUAL replacement for Ed Reed. That's a lot easier said than done, because again, Ed Reed was history's greatest free safety. The Ravens, nevertheless, will have to find serious talent at the position or simply get Lardarius Webb to bulk up 15-20 pounds and switch positions.
The Ravens will also have to turn to the draft to find a replacement for Michael Oher. Oher is unquestionably gone next season as he was the NFL's most penalized player as of the Thanksgiving night game this season. The Ravens could either replace Oher with a talented and hopefully more disciplined right tackle in the draft, or they could elect to slide Kelechi Osemele to right tackle and draft another left guard. However they elect to repair and bolster the offensive line, the Ravens will need to utilize the draft to do so since they can't afford to give long term contracts to both Michael Oher AND Eugene Monroe. The Ravens also need to decide what to do at the center position. Gino Gradkowski simply isn't strong or talented enough to be the leader of the offensive line. It's possible that he could work extremely hard and come back bigger, strong, and wiser next season, but I wouldn't count on it. It should come as no surprise to Ravens fans if Ozzie Newsome and Eric Decosta decide to use their first or second round pick on a center.
There are probably dozens of contract decisions we could continue to go over and dozens more that we probably aren't even aware of which the Ravens front office will find themselves faced with over the course of the next few months. Hopefully this season serves as a wake-up call to Harbaugh and Ozzie. They attempted to avoid a Super Bowl hangover by taking a polar opposite strategy of that used after the Ravens won their first Super Bowl. In 2001, the Ravens organization tried whatever they could to restructure salaries to keep their Super Bowl team from the year before together. That strategy failed as the centerpiece of that team's offense, Jamaal Lewis, suffered a season-ending injury before the beginning of the regular season and the Ravens ended up being bounced from the playoffs by the Steelers.
In 2013, the Ravens front office decided to turn over the Ravens roster to an extreme degree as they got rid of players that most fans and analysts believed had earned their spots on the team. Sure, Paul Kruger and Dannell Ellerbe became too expensive for the Ravens to keep, but Anquan Boldin performed too well once he was finally put in the slot last season and the Ravens learned how to correctly use him. The decision to let Ed Reed go proved a good one off the bat as the Texans paid him entirely too much money when he clearly hadn't yet recovered from his off-season hip surgery. After he was cut, however, Ed Reed could have been a valuable asset to the Ravens considering their issues at the free safety position. Case in point: Ed Reed had 3 interceptions in his 6 games with the Jets this season. We can only wonder what he could have done for the Ravens if brought back into the defensive back the rotation down the stretch--but now we'll never know.
This isn't a time to second guess the Ravens decisions, but to simply evaluate them, learn from them, and move on. I'm actually quite excited about a number of things for the Ravens in 2014. Marlon Brown is going to be a touchdown machine, and the Ravens can finally see what Aaron Mellette and Matt Furstenburg can do for receiving depth. The Ravens also will finally have a good draft spot as this will be the first season in over half a decade where they won't pick near the end of the draft order. Jimmy Smith will likely continue to develop into a Pro Bowl cornerback if he stays healthy next season, and Lardarius Webb will hopefully continue his return to his shut-down form from prior to his most recent knee injury. Hopefully the Ravens will be able to re-sign Dennis Pitta, and he'll have a breakout season with a healthy Flacco and a revamped offensive line. Last, but certainly not least, Ray Rice will hopefully take his rehab and training seriously and return to his old form for at least another season or two. Missing the playoffs is painful, but that seems to be the price that every Super Bowl Champion pays nowadays. Maybe we were all spoiled with a spectacular storybook ending to Ray Lewis' career, and maybe their luck from early 2013 simply ran out in the last couple of weeks. They won't repeat as Super Bowl Champions, but that doesn't mean they won't be back soon...
THE RAVENS 2013 SEASON IS OVER, BUT RAVENS NATION STANDS AS PROUD AS EVER OF THEIR CITY AND THEIR TEAM. THE RAVENS WILL BE BACK IN A BIG WAY IN 2014. UNTIL THEN, WE AS FOOTBALL FANS CAN SIT BACK AND ENJOY THE PLAYOFFS.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS...DRAFT SOME LINEMEN!
Saturday, December 28, 2013
THE RAVENS' LAST STAND AND WEEK 17 NFL PREDICTIONS
Okay, so last week's game against the Patriots did not go as many expected. It turns out that Joe Flacco's knee was more of a limiting factor than I and most of the rest of the world assumed. The Patriots also proved a far more dominant foe even without Rob Gronkowski than anyone in the Ravens organization could have predicted. I usually give the Patriots adequate credit, but it appears as though I didn't give them nearly enough of it prior to Week 16's beatdown in Baltimore. It's certainly no secret at this point that the Ravens' most recent home loss took the Ravens out of the driver's seat for the final playoff spot. Now they have to hope and pray for a Dolphins or Chargers loss while finding a way to win on the road in a stadium in which no team other than the Bengals has won this season. The odds are against the Ravens, but there seem to be few years where that is NOT the case at one point or another.
The Ravens usually relish the chance to win against all odds. They seem to thrive on being thought of as an underdog because of their tendency to win football games in a fashion not popular amongst most NFL fans. Baltimore has had a history of being a hard-nosed defensive team with a power running game and a steadfast fieldgoal kicker. Most of those things are true for this year with the exception of one. The Ravens have never found a rhythm running the football this season. Their offensive line's inability to open up running lanes is mostly to blame, but Ray Rice's nagging injuries have unquestionably played a significant role. The lack of a power running game has meant an inability to punch the ball into the endzone or simply convert 3rd or 4th downs in short yardage situations. A lack of a running game has meant little balance in the Ravens offense and has allowed opposing teams to turn the Ravens into a one-dimensional opponent that has difficulty consistently sustaining drives and scoring touchdowns.
It's not as though the Ravens haven't done well recently. Before last weekend they had won 5 out of their last 6 games. If they manage to win on Sunday they will have won 6 out of their last 8 games of the season. That would be fantastic considering that Baltimore only won 3 of their first 8 games. Finishing with 9 wins may simply not be enough to get the Ravens into the playoffs because of strange tie-breaking rules when there is a three-way tie at the end of the regular season. The Ravens, for example, have a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Dolphins because of their Week 5 road win in Miami. The Ravens also hold a tiebreaker over the Chargers as the Ravens have more conference wins than Phillip Rivers and company. Because all three teams have the same record at 8-7, however, the Ravens' head-to-head win over the Dolphins no longer applies as the team with the most conference wins automatically gets the final wildcard spot in the event of a three-way tie. It sucks...I know, but rules are rules, and it doesn't mean the Ravens can't still get into the playoffs.
The Ravens' first priority is beating a Bengals team that hasn't lost at home this season, but will be without a significant number of starters this weekend. The Bengals haven't had star defensive lineman, Geno Atkins, or star cornerback, Leon Hall, for many weeks now. The Bengals have, nevertheless, continued to win games. Cincinnati, however, will also likely be without yet another starting cornerback since Terrance Newman won't suit up this weekend. Cincinnati took another hit to their defensive line depth as second string defensive tackle, Devon Still, has been ruled out with a back injury. On the offensive side of the ball, the Bengals will be without their young and talented tight end, Tyler Eifert. What has yet to be seen is if their other tight end, Jermaine Gresham, actually sees significant playing time on Sunday. Gresham is listed as questionable after practicing on a limited basis earlier in the week, but he didn't practice on Thursday or Friday and could be sidelined with a hamstring injury that may be more serious than originally assumed. If Gresham does, in fact, NOT play on Sunday then the Bengals will have only one healthy tight end left on their depth chart, 3rd stringer Alex Smith.
There's no question that the Bengals are banged up. The biggest question is whether or not the Bengals' lack of healthy defensive lineman, healthy cornerbacks, and healthy tight ends will be as significant as the injuries with which the Ravens are currently dealing. Joe Flacco's sprained MCL clearly affected his confidence, mobility, and accuracy last Sunday. Will Joe's knee be any better this weekend? It's tough to say until he takes the field. Flacco isn't the only injured starter on the Ravens offense. Ray Rice has dealt with a quadriceps injury all week, and Torrey Smith has had hamstring issues since the Patriots game. Possibly more significant than Rice's or Smith's injuries is Gino Gradkowski's knee injury. Gradkowski hasn't been anywhere as good as his predecessor, Matt Birk, but he is the best center the Ravens have at the moment, and he'd need to be replaced by the Ravens current starting left guard, A.Q. Shipley. The major problem with shifting A.Q. Shipley to center isn't that A.Q. Shipley would be at the center position. The REAL problem is that Jah "the human turnstyle" Reid would be brought in to take Shipley's place at left guard. Ravens fans must PRAY that this scenario is avoided as it would mean a long day for an already beaten and battered Joe Flacco.
I won't pretend to be confident about the Ravens chances of winning this weekend. They have just as many injury issues as the Bengals (if not more), and they can't run the ball well even with a totally healthy squad. The Bengals simply put up too many point at home this season, and that may be more than the Ravens can keep up with considering their own lack of offensive firepower. Even if the Ravens find a rhythm in the passing game because of thin Bengals cornerback depth and somehow pull out a win, the Ravens still need to count on a Jets team that hasn't won a road game since beating the lowly Falcons in Week 5. The Chargers will likely be playing a Chiefs team with a significant number of starters on the bench resting for the playoffs, so the Ravens can't count on a Chargers loss. The two things that give me the most hope that the Ravens will make the playoffs are the fact that the Ravens held the Bengals to 10 points for almost an entire 4 quarters earlier this season and the fact that the Dolphins looked horrendous last week. How the Dolphins fared on the road against the Bills may not matter, however, as the Dolphins beat the Jets down hard in New Jersey only 4 weeks ago. Maybe the Jets defensive line will find a way to limit the Dolphins ground attack and force Tannehill into bad throws. Maybe one or two of those throws will find their way into the hands of a Jets defensive back, and maybe--just maybe--those hands will belong to Ed Reed.
WEEK 17 NFL PREDICTIONS
JAGUARS AT COLTS- The Colts have beat most of the most dominant teams in the league this year, but have lost some surprising games against mediocre and bad teams. This trend may bode well for the playoffs, but it may mean trouble against a Jaguars team that has seen far more success in the second half of the season. I have faith, however, that the Colts will be motivated and effective enough at home to beat the Jaguars in an effort to secure the 3 seed in the playoffs. If the Ravens get into the postseason, they'll likely travel to Indy to face the Colts in the first round for the second time in a row. COLTS 31-20.
PANTHERS AT FALCONS- The Falcons looked as though they were about to beat the 49ers last week until Matt Ryan forced a throw that ended up being picked off by Navarro Bowman and taken back for a game-sealing touchdown. That was still an impressive effort for a Falcons team with almost no wins this season, but they're simply not good enough to beat the Panthers even at home. PANTHERS 23-21.
RAVENS AT BENGALS- I simply can't predict a Ravens victory in Cincy this weekend with an injured Joe Flacco. If Joe can't muster more than 7 points against the Patriots defense at home in Baltimore, I have no idea how he'll be able to score enough against a Bengals defense in Cincinnati to outscore a Bengals offense that has put up 41 or more points per game at home in their last 4 home contests...it's simply a losing equation. I haven't lost hope, but a win simply doesn't appear likely if we're looking at this from an objective standpoint. BENGALS 28-17.
JETS AT DOLPHINS- I also haven't lost hope that the Jets could pull an upset in Miami and at least edge the Dolphins in a season-ending divisional showdown, but Jet simply don't play well enough on the road to give me much confidence going into Sunday. DOLPHINS 33-24.
TEXANS AT TITANS- I won't pretend to care about this game, but the Titans are simply better than the Texans this season and will beat them at home. TITANS 20-17.
LIONS AT VIKINGS- I thought the Vikings were much improved after they almost beat the Ravens and smashed the Eagles, but the Bengals took them back down to earth. The Lions, however, could be without Calvin Johnson, and even if he plays, I can't imagine Megatron will be at full strength. VIKINGS 27-23.
REDSKINS AT GIANTS- GIANTS 30-28.
BROWNS AT STEELERS- STEELERS 27-16.
PACKERS AT BEARS- Aaron Rodgers is back...and he's VERY good at football. PACKERS 28-20.
BRONCOS AT RAIDERS- BRONCOS 35-21.
BILLS AT PATRIOTS- The Bills have the pass rush and running attack to keep this game close, but the Patriots are too good at home to lose this game when the 2nd playoff seed is on the line. PATRIOTS 30-23.
BUCCANEERS AT SAINTS- I don't like the Saints in the post-season, but they're too good to lose at home to the Bucs. SAINTS 26-17.
49ERS AT CARDINALS- The 49ers just clinched a playoff spot and the Cardinals need to win in order to keep hopes of the playoffs alive. If the Cardinals somehow miss the playoffs, they'll be by far the best team not to have made it. CARDINALS 20-17.
CHIEFS AT CHARGERS- The Chiefs will be sitting enough starters for me to feel hopeless that they can win in San Diego on Sunday. CHARGERS 27-17.
RAMS AT SEAHAWKS- These teams played a painfully close game last time they met, but this time will be in Seattle. SEAHAWKS 21-13.
EAGLES AT COWBOYS- No Romo? No playoffs for the Cowboys. Romo isn't elite, but the's the best that the Cowboys have, and his absence is going to render this team mostly useless. EAGLES 42-21.
KEEP THE FAITH FOR ONE MORE DAY, BALTIMORE MIRACLES DO HAPPEN
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
The Ravens usually relish the chance to win against all odds. They seem to thrive on being thought of as an underdog because of their tendency to win football games in a fashion not popular amongst most NFL fans. Baltimore has had a history of being a hard-nosed defensive team with a power running game and a steadfast fieldgoal kicker. Most of those things are true for this year with the exception of one. The Ravens have never found a rhythm running the football this season. Their offensive line's inability to open up running lanes is mostly to blame, but Ray Rice's nagging injuries have unquestionably played a significant role. The lack of a power running game has meant an inability to punch the ball into the endzone or simply convert 3rd or 4th downs in short yardage situations. A lack of a running game has meant little balance in the Ravens offense and has allowed opposing teams to turn the Ravens into a one-dimensional opponent that has difficulty consistently sustaining drives and scoring touchdowns.
It's not as though the Ravens haven't done well recently. Before last weekend they had won 5 out of their last 6 games. If they manage to win on Sunday they will have won 6 out of their last 8 games of the season. That would be fantastic considering that Baltimore only won 3 of their first 8 games. Finishing with 9 wins may simply not be enough to get the Ravens into the playoffs because of strange tie-breaking rules when there is a three-way tie at the end of the regular season. The Ravens, for example, have a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Dolphins because of their Week 5 road win in Miami. The Ravens also hold a tiebreaker over the Chargers as the Ravens have more conference wins than Phillip Rivers and company. Because all three teams have the same record at 8-7, however, the Ravens' head-to-head win over the Dolphins no longer applies as the team with the most conference wins automatically gets the final wildcard spot in the event of a three-way tie. It sucks...I know, but rules are rules, and it doesn't mean the Ravens can't still get into the playoffs.
The Ravens' first priority is beating a Bengals team that hasn't lost at home this season, but will be without a significant number of starters this weekend. The Bengals haven't had star defensive lineman, Geno Atkins, or star cornerback, Leon Hall, for many weeks now. The Bengals have, nevertheless, continued to win games. Cincinnati, however, will also likely be without yet another starting cornerback since Terrance Newman won't suit up this weekend. Cincinnati took another hit to their defensive line depth as second string defensive tackle, Devon Still, has been ruled out with a back injury. On the offensive side of the ball, the Bengals will be without their young and talented tight end, Tyler Eifert. What has yet to be seen is if their other tight end, Jermaine Gresham, actually sees significant playing time on Sunday. Gresham is listed as questionable after practicing on a limited basis earlier in the week, but he didn't practice on Thursday or Friday and could be sidelined with a hamstring injury that may be more serious than originally assumed. If Gresham does, in fact, NOT play on Sunday then the Bengals will have only one healthy tight end left on their depth chart, 3rd stringer Alex Smith.
There's no question that the Bengals are banged up. The biggest question is whether or not the Bengals' lack of healthy defensive lineman, healthy cornerbacks, and healthy tight ends will be as significant as the injuries with which the Ravens are currently dealing. Joe Flacco's sprained MCL clearly affected his confidence, mobility, and accuracy last Sunday. Will Joe's knee be any better this weekend? It's tough to say until he takes the field. Flacco isn't the only injured starter on the Ravens offense. Ray Rice has dealt with a quadriceps injury all week, and Torrey Smith has had hamstring issues since the Patriots game. Possibly more significant than Rice's or Smith's injuries is Gino Gradkowski's knee injury. Gradkowski hasn't been anywhere as good as his predecessor, Matt Birk, but he is the best center the Ravens have at the moment, and he'd need to be replaced by the Ravens current starting left guard, A.Q. Shipley. The major problem with shifting A.Q. Shipley to center isn't that A.Q. Shipley would be at the center position. The REAL problem is that Jah "the human turnstyle" Reid would be brought in to take Shipley's place at left guard. Ravens fans must PRAY that this scenario is avoided as it would mean a long day for an already beaten and battered Joe Flacco.
I won't pretend to be confident about the Ravens chances of winning this weekend. They have just as many injury issues as the Bengals (if not more), and they can't run the ball well even with a totally healthy squad. The Bengals simply put up too many point at home this season, and that may be more than the Ravens can keep up with considering their own lack of offensive firepower. Even if the Ravens find a rhythm in the passing game because of thin Bengals cornerback depth and somehow pull out a win, the Ravens still need to count on a Jets team that hasn't won a road game since beating the lowly Falcons in Week 5. The Chargers will likely be playing a Chiefs team with a significant number of starters on the bench resting for the playoffs, so the Ravens can't count on a Chargers loss. The two things that give me the most hope that the Ravens will make the playoffs are the fact that the Ravens held the Bengals to 10 points for almost an entire 4 quarters earlier this season and the fact that the Dolphins looked horrendous last week. How the Dolphins fared on the road against the Bills may not matter, however, as the Dolphins beat the Jets down hard in New Jersey only 4 weeks ago. Maybe the Jets defensive line will find a way to limit the Dolphins ground attack and force Tannehill into bad throws. Maybe one or two of those throws will find their way into the hands of a Jets defensive back, and maybe--just maybe--those hands will belong to Ed Reed.
WEEK 17 NFL PREDICTIONS
JAGUARS AT COLTS- The Colts have beat most of the most dominant teams in the league this year, but have lost some surprising games against mediocre and bad teams. This trend may bode well for the playoffs, but it may mean trouble against a Jaguars team that has seen far more success in the second half of the season. I have faith, however, that the Colts will be motivated and effective enough at home to beat the Jaguars in an effort to secure the 3 seed in the playoffs. If the Ravens get into the postseason, they'll likely travel to Indy to face the Colts in the first round for the second time in a row. COLTS 31-20.
PANTHERS AT FALCONS- The Falcons looked as though they were about to beat the 49ers last week until Matt Ryan forced a throw that ended up being picked off by Navarro Bowman and taken back for a game-sealing touchdown. That was still an impressive effort for a Falcons team with almost no wins this season, but they're simply not good enough to beat the Panthers even at home. PANTHERS 23-21.
RAVENS AT BENGALS- I simply can't predict a Ravens victory in Cincy this weekend with an injured Joe Flacco. If Joe can't muster more than 7 points against the Patriots defense at home in Baltimore, I have no idea how he'll be able to score enough against a Bengals defense in Cincinnati to outscore a Bengals offense that has put up 41 or more points per game at home in their last 4 home contests...it's simply a losing equation. I haven't lost hope, but a win simply doesn't appear likely if we're looking at this from an objective standpoint. BENGALS 28-17.
JETS AT DOLPHINS- I also haven't lost hope that the Jets could pull an upset in Miami and at least edge the Dolphins in a season-ending divisional showdown, but Jet simply don't play well enough on the road to give me much confidence going into Sunday. DOLPHINS 33-24.
TEXANS AT TITANS- I won't pretend to care about this game, but the Titans are simply better than the Texans this season and will beat them at home. TITANS 20-17.
LIONS AT VIKINGS- I thought the Vikings were much improved after they almost beat the Ravens and smashed the Eagles, but the Bengals took them back down to earth. The Lions, however, could be without Calvin Johnson, and even if he plays, I can't imagine Megatron will be at full strength. VIKINGS 27-23.
REDSKINS AT GIANTS- GIANTS 30-28.
BROWNS AT STEELERS- STEELERS 27-16.
PACKERS AT BEARS- Aaron Rodgers is back...and he's VERY good at football. PACKERS 28-20.
BRONCOS AT RAIDERS- BRONCOS 35-21.
BILLS AT PATRIOTS- The Bills have the pass rush and running attack to keep this game close, but the Patriots are too good at home to lose this game when the 2nd playoff seed is on the line. PATRIOTS 30-23.
BUCCANEERS AT SAINTS- I don't like the Saints in the post-season, but they're too good to lose at home to the Bucs. SAINTS 26-17.
49ERS AT CARDINALS- The 49ers just clinched a playoff spot and the Cardinals need to win in order to keep hopes of the playoffs alive. If the Cardinals somehow miss the playoffs, they'll be by far the best team not to have made it. CARDINALS 20-17.
CHIEFS AT CHARGERS- The Chiefs will be sitting enough starters for me to feel hopeless that they can win in San Diego on Sunday. CHARGERS 27-17.
RAMS AT SEAHAWKS- These teams played a painfully close game last time they met, but this time will be in Seattle. SEAHAWKS 21-13.
EAGLES AT COWBOYS- No Romo? No playoffs for the Cowboys. Romo isn't elite, but the's the best that the Cowboys have, and his absence is going to render this team mostly useless. EAGLES 42-21.
KEEP THE FAITH FOR ONE MORE DAY, BALTIMORE MIRACLES DO HAPPEN
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Friday, December 20, 2013
WEEK 16 NFL PREDICTIONS
The Ravens have a chance to give a wonderful Christmas present to their fanbase on Sunday. The Patriots are riddled with injuries to key starters including their most integral offensive weapon aside of Brady himself, Rob Gronkowski. The Ravens, meanwhile, are much healthier overall and received a boost in their own receiving personnel with the recent return of Dennis Pitta. Baltimore has also seen a return to health for Haloti Ngata and Marshal Yanda, both of whom put on big physical displays of strength on Monday night against the Lions. Even Ray Rice finally got back into his groove with a 4.7 yards per carry performance against the 3rd ranked run defense in the league. It's as though everything is falling into place for the Ravens just at the right time. Well, almost everything.
Joe Flacco will likely wear a knee brace on his left leg this Sunday after having taken a rather brutal helmet to the side of his knee against the Lions. I would like to say this won't affect #5 much, but his mobility has actually been one of his strong points this season. Joe has been able to extend plays with his legs, and that has been vitally important in a season that has seen uneven pass protection for the Super Bowl MVP. Fortunately for Joe, the Ravens offensive line has come together as of late in the pass protection department. Run blocking still isn't consistently effective, but it's good enough to have allowed Ray Rice to have back to back games with 50+ rushing yards. I know that doesn't seem particularly impressive, but for this season it's the first time that has happened.
The Patriots rank 31st in the league in run defense with Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo out for the rest of the season. That isn't just great news for Ray Rice; it's also great news for Joe Flacco. A successful day of running the football against the Patriots will help to take pressure off of Joe Flacco and allow him to sit in the pocket more easily to make throws. The Ravens offensive line stood up well to some impressive defensive lines during their recent 4 game winning streak, and thankfully the Patriots defensive linemen are nowhere near the same caliber without Wilfork in the middle. This should allow the Ravens to control the clock when they need to, and maybe we'll even see them run the ball successfully in the redzone with Vonta Leach as a lead blocker in goal line situations (haven't seen much of Leach lately).
The Ravens offense should have success against a lackluster Patriots defense at home on Sunday. The Patriots offense, however, is going to have its hands full. The Ravens defense has gone up against a host of the best wide receivers in the game this season and hasn't allowed a single one to have a dominant game. The Ravens secondary limited Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, A.J. Green, Antonio Brown, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey, and DeAndre Hopkins to under 100 yards receiving for each. It's not that Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola aren't talented receivers, it's just that neither one is a mismatch in size or speed for the Ravens defensive backs. In other words, if Calvin Johnson, Antonio Brown, and A.J. Green don't have phenomenal success against the Ravens, don't expect the Edelman and Amendola to have a big day.
If the Patriots think they'll be able to run the ball to make up for the absence of Gronkowski, they should think again. I'm sure they'll have at least SOME success running the ball at times, but the Ravens have the 7th ranked run defense in the league, and it should be a good match for the Patriots 12th ranked rushing attack. Part of what made the Patriots running game click earlier this season was the blocking of Rob Gronkowski. In Gronk's absence, expect the Patriots to lean more on their short passing game as both Edelman and Amendola have elite stats when it comes to yards after the catch this season. Brady will definitely utilize his lightning-quick release to get the ball into the hands of those two play-makers. The big question is whether or not Edelman and Amendola will be able to get much yardage while being covered by Lardarius Webb and Jimmy Smith.
One of the biggest factors that should make Tom Brady's day long and frustrating is the pressure he'll see from the Ravens pass rushers. Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil will undoubtedly harass Brady from the edges, but as I mentioned before, Haloti Ngata has appeared particularly dominant recently. The Ravens defensive line rotation has enough disruptive force to collapse the pocket on a regular enough basis to keep Brady from making solid down-field throws. The Patriots left tackle, Nate Solder, returned to practice yesterday, but don't expect him to have an easy time against the 2011 defensive player of the year.
Nothing I've said here should be shocking or surprising to most reading it. The Patriots are hurt badly, and the Ravens are a team hitting its stride and playing at home this week. Most people are predicting a close game. I am not one of those people. The Ravens stomped a more impressive Patriots team last postseason in Foxborough without Gronkowski, and that was WITH Wilfork, Aaron Hernandez, and Jerod Mayo. The Patriots offense is simply not good enough to put more than 20-21 points on the Ravens in Baltimore, and the Patriots defense is too depleted to hold the Ravens under 20 points in Baltimore. It's the NFL, so anything can happen and nothing is guaranteed, but this should be a solid win for the Ravens and a merry Christmas for the people of Baltimore.
WEEK 16 NFL PREDICTIONS
COLTS AT CHIEFS- The Colts have already clinched their division, but they also want desperately to get a higher seed in the playoffs to get a bye week and homefield advantage. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are quite strong at home, and will be playing their hearts out in hopes that the Broncos suffer one final unlikely defeat in Houston with Wes Welker out for the next two weeks. A motivated Chiefs team at home is far better than an unconvincing Colts team on the road that has already clinched its division. Oh yeah, and Jamaal Charles is a beast. CHIEFS 33-21.
DOLPHINS AT BILLS- The Bills won the first matchup between these two teams, but Tannehill's protection has increased dramatically since that first meeting. The Bills should still be able to have a good day running the ball and will be able to get pressure on the Dolphins QB at times, but the Dolphins are playing too well (even in the cold) recently to lose this game. DOLPHINS 27-20.
VIKINGS AT BENGALS- The Bengals are leading their division and appeared to have the AFC North locked up until recently. The Vikings, on the other hand, are not playing for a playoff berth, but Matt Cassel has been remarkably impressive since taking over the starting QB spot. The Vikings blasted the Eagles last week, and they did so without Adrian Peterson or Toby Gerhart. Could it be that this team has finally found its rhythm? I think so. The Bengals are beat up in their secondary and won't match up well against impressive Vikings receivers. This should be a high scoring game. VIKINGS 38-36.
BUCCANEERS AT RAMS- This game doesn't really mean much, but both of these teams have looked impressive towards the end of this season. Going with the home team on this one. RAMS 21-17.
BROWNS AT JETS- The Browns haven't had a great season because of a revolving door of quarterbacks. They did, however, almost beat the patriots two weeks ago, and they have talent all over the field. The Jets have been incredibly inconsistent, also because of quarterback issues, and struggle against teams with elite defenses and the Browns possess one. BROWNS 28-16.
COWBOYS AT REDSKINS- The Redskins have little motivation other than pride to win this game while the Cowboys are fighting for their playoff lives. COWBOYS 35-21.
SAINTS AT PANTHERS- The Panthers are much better at home than the Saints are on the road. Not much to this one. PANTHERS 30-19.
TITANS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars have played well recently. I think they'll win this one at home. JAGUARS 20-17.
BRONCOS AT TEXANS- I would be thrilled if the Texans somehow pulled an upset here, but this is one of the worst teams in the league against one of the best. Peyton Manning will play well in a warm environment, no questions asked. BRONCOS 42-23.
GIANTS AT LIONS- LIONS 31-14.
CARDINALS AT SEAHAWKS- The Cardinals have had a nice season, but they're not nearly good enough to be the first team to win in Seattle...I don't know if any team is good enough for that. SEAHAWKS 30-20.
STEELERS AT PACKERS- The Steelers are clinging an incredibly small amount of hope that the Ravens and Dolphins and Chargers will all lose out so that Roethlisberger and company get to the playoffs. The only problem is that the Dolphins will already have won or lost to the Bills by the time the Steelers take the field. If the Dolphins have won by that point, the Steelers have no shot at the playoffs, and it would behoove them to sit their starters...unless they just want to play for pride or something silly like that. This is tough because I believe the Dolphins WILL win, but the Packers won't be playing with Aaron Rodgers. The Steelers are better than the Packers without Rodgers and maybe they'll relish the chance to play spoiler to the team that beat them in the Super Bowl 3 seasons ago. STEELERS 28-21.
RAIDERS AT CHARGERS- CHARGERS 33-17.
PATRIOTS AT RAVENS- The Patriots can't win this game with the defense and receiving weapons they have currently at their disposal. The Ravens are nearly unbeatable at home, and they are a healthier, more complete team now than in the first half of this season. Aqip Talib is a great corner, but the Ravens have too many receiving weapons for that to matter all that much. I expect a big day from Bernard Pierce. RAVENS 27-17.
BEARS AT EAGLES- This is an interesting matchup because it features two impressive offenses with little defense to speak of on either team. I don't know if there's necessarily a statistical reason to back this up, but I've been more impressed with the Bears this season. With that said, the Bears haven't been great on the road. I'm going with the home team in a shootout. EAGLES 33-28.
FALCONS AT 49ERS- I bet when the NFL originally scheduled this game for a Monday night they assumed it would be a showdown between to NFC powerhouses. HA. 49ERS 35-20.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Joe Flacco will likely wear a knee brace on his left leg this Sunday after having taken a rather brutal helmet to the side of his knee against the Lions. I would like to say this won't affect #5 much, but his mobility has actually been one of his strong points this season. Joe has been able to extend plays with his legs, and that has been vitally important in a season that has seen uneven pass protection for the Super Bowl MVP. Fortunately for Joe, the Ravens offensive line has come together as of late in the pass protection department. Run blocking still isn't consistently effective, but it's good enough to have allowed Ray Rice to have back to back games with 50+ rushing yards. I know that doesn't seem particularly impressive, but for this season it's the first time that has happened.
The Patriots rank 31st in the league in run defense with Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo out for the rest of the season. That isn't just great news for Ray Rice; it's also great news for Joe Flacco. A successful day of running the football against the Patriots will help to take pressure off of Joe Flacco and allow him to sit in the pocket more easily to make throws. The Ravens offensive line stood up well to some impressive defensive lines during their recent 4 game winning streak, and thankfully the Patriots defensive linemen are nowhere near the same caliber without Wilfork in the middle. This should allow the Ravens to control the clock when they need to, and maybe we'll even see them run the ball successfully in the redzone with Vonta Leach as a lead blocker in goal line situations (haven't seen much of Leach lately).
The Ravens offense should have success against a lackluster Patriots defense at home on Sunday. The Patriots offense, however, is going to have its hands full. The Ravens defense has gone up against a host of the best wide receivers in the game this season and hasn't allowed a single one to have a dominant game. The Ravens secondary limited Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, A.J. Green, Antonio Brown, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey, and DeAndre Hopkins to under 100 yards receiving for each. It's not that Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola aren't talented receivers, it's just that neither one is a mismatch in size or speed for the Ravens defensive backs. In other words, if Calvin Johnson, Antonio Brown, and A.J. Green don't have phenomenal success against the Ravens, don't expect the Edelman and Amendola to have a big day.
If the Patriots think they'll be able to run the ball to make up for the absence of Gronkowski, they should think again. I'm sure they'll have at least SOME success running the ball at times, but the Ravens have the 7th ranked run defense in the league, and it should be a good match for the Patriots 12th ranked rushing attack. Part of what made the Patriots running game click earlier this season was the blocking of Rob Gronkowski. In Gronk's absence, expect the Patriots to lean more on their short passing game as both Edelman and Amendola have elite stats when it comes to yards after the catch this season. Brady will definitely utilize his lightning-quick release to get the ball into the hands of those two play-makers. The big question is whether or not Edelman and Amendola will be able to get much yardage while being covered by Lardarius Webb and Jimmy Smith.
One of the biggest factors that should make Tom Brady's day long and frustrating is the pressure he'll see from the Ravens pass rushers. Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil will undoubtedly harass Brady from the edges, but as I mentioned before, Haloti Ngata has appeared particularly dominant recently. The Ravens defensive line rotation has enough disruptive force to collapse the pocket on a regular enough basis to keep Brady from making solid down-field throws. The Patriots left tackle, Nate Solder, returned to practice yesterday, but don't expect him to have an easy time against the 2011 defensive player of the year.
Nothing I've said here should be shocking or surprising to most reading it. The Patriots are hurt badly, and the Ravens are a team hitting its stride and playing at home this week. Most people are predicting a close game. I am not one of those people. The Ravens stomped a more impressive Patriots team last postseason in Foxborough without Gronkowski, and that was WITH Wilfork, Aaron Hernandez, and Jerod Mayo. The Patriots offense is simply not good enough to put more than 20-21 points on the Ravens in Baltimore, and the Patriots defense is too depleted to hold the Ravens under 20 points in Baltimore. It's the NFL, so anything can happen and nothing is guaranteed, but this should be a solid win for the Ravens and a merry Christmas for the people of Baltimore.
WEEK 16 NFL PREDICTIONS
COLTS AT CHIEFS- The Colts have already clinched their division, but they also want desperately to get a higher seed in the playoffs to get a bye week and homefield advantage. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are quite strong at home, and will be playing their hearts out in hopes that the Broncos suffer one final unlikely defeat in Houston with Wes Welker out for the next two weeks. A motivated Chiefs team at home is far better than an unconvincing Colts team on the road that has already clinched its division. Oh yeah, and Jamaal Charles is a beast. CHIEFS 33-21.
DOLPHINS AT BILLS- The Bills won the first matchup between these two teams, but Tannehill's protection has increased dramatically since that first meeting. The Bills should still be able to have a good day running the ball and will be able to get pressure on the Dolphins QB at times, but the Dolphins are playing too well (even in the cold) recently to lose this game. DOLPHINS 27-20.
VIKINGS AT BENGALS- The Bengals are leading their division and appeared to have the AFC North locked up until recently. The Vikings, on the other hand, are not playing for a playoff berth, but Matt Cassel has been remarkably impressive since taking over the starting QB spot. The Vikings blasted the Eagles last week, and they did so without Adrian Peterson or Toby Gerhart. Could it be that this team has finally found its rhythm? I think so. The Bengals are beat up in their secondary and won't match up well against impressive Vikings receivers. This should be a high scoring game. VIKINGS 38-36.
BUCCANEERS AT RAMS- This game doesn't really mean much, but both of these teams have looked impressive towards the end of this season. Going with the home team on this one. RAMS 21-17.
BROWNS AT JETS- The Browns haven't had a great season because of a revolving door of quarterbacks. They did, however, almost beat the patriots two weeks ago, and they have talent all over the field. The Jets have been incredibly inconsistent, also because of quarterback issues, and struggle against teams with elite defenses and the Browns possess one. BROWNS 28-16.
COWBOYS AT REDSKINS- The Redskins have little motivation other than pride to win this game while the Cowboys are fighting for their playoff lives. COWBOYS 35-21.
SAINTS AT PANTHERS- The Panthers are much better at home than the Saints are on the road. Not much to this one. PANTHERS 30-19.
TITANS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars have played well recently. I think they'll win this one at home. JAGUARS 20-17.
BRONCOS AT TEXANS- I would be thrilled if the Texans somehow pulled an upset here, but this is one of the worst teams in the league against one of the best. Peyton Manning will play well in a warm environment, no questions asked. BRONCOS 42-23.
GIANTS AT LIONS- LIONS 31-14.
CARDINALS AT SEAHAWKS- The Cardinals have had a nice season, but they're not nearly good enough to be the first team to win in Seattle...I don't know if any team is good enough for that. SEAHAWKS 30-20.
STEELERS AT PACKERS- The Steelers are clinging an incredibly small amount of hope that the Ravens and Dolphins and Chargers will all lose out so that Roethlisberger and company get to the playoffs. The only problem is that the Dolphins will already have won or lost to the Bills by the time the Steelers take the field. If the Dolphins have won by that point, the Steelers have no shot at the playoffs, and it would behoove them to sit their starters...unless they just want to play for pride or something silly like that. This is tough because I believe the Dolphins WILL win, but the Packers won't be playing with Aaron Rodgers. The Steelers are better than the Packers without Rodgers and maybe they'll relish the chance to play spoiler to the team that beat them in the Super Bowl 3 seasons ago. STEELERS 28-21.
RAIDERS AT CHARGERS- CHARGERS 33-17.
PATRIOTS AT RAVENS- The Patriots can't win this game with the defense and receiving weapons they have currently at their disposal. The Ravens are nearly unbeatable at home, and they are a healthier, more complete team now than in the first half of this season. Aqip Talib is a great corner, but the Ravens have too many receiving weapons for that to matter all that much. I expect a big day from Bernard Pierce. RAVENS 27-17.
BEARS AT EAGLES- This is an interesting matchup because it features two impressive offenses with little defense to speak of on either team. I don't know if there's necessarily a statistical reason to back this up, but I've been more impressed with the Bears this season. With that said, the Bears haven't been great on the road. I'm going with the home team in a shootout. EAGLES 33-28.
FALCONS AT 49ERS- I bet when the NFL originally scheduled this game for a Monday night they assumed it would be a showdown between to NFC powerhouses. HA. 49ERS 35-20.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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