I must apologize for not posting my Bengals-Chargers prediction. I attempted to put far more time and thought into that prediction after spending less time on my Saints-Eagles analysis and winding up being incorrect. I did, however, post my Bengals-Chargers score prediction on Facebook shortly before the game just for the record.
I'm writing to you now while watching the Bengals-Chargers game, but I believe the game I'll be writing about will be far more interesting. The Packers are in a rather interesting situation at this point in the year as they played such a sizable chunk of their season without Aaron Rodgers and somehow made their way into the playoffs anyway. Ultimately, I believe Rodgers absence strengthened the Packers as it forced them to find ways to win without their most important player. That, however, in no way makes this game a slam dunk in favor of Green Bay.
The most unusual factor that makes this game difficult to predict is the possibility that the 49ers switch back to read-option offense. The 49ers experienced a tremendous amount of success last season after Colin Kaepernick replaced Alex Smith and the 49ers utilized the read-option to score their way to a Super Bowl appearance against the Ravens. The 49ers, however, went away from the read-option in the regular season as it puts the quarterback in a vulnerable position when choosing to run the football. The knee injuries endured by Robert Griffin the 3rd served as warning to the 49ers about what can happen to even the most athletic of quarterbacks if teams take their chances running the read-option.
The second major unusual factor to this game is the impending arctic conditions that look to be some of the coldest in NFL history. The temperature appears as though it will be quite low at 5 degrees at the start of the game. The wind chill, however, figures to make this game feel vastly colder, and thus, high winds could heavily affect the direction and length of passes. I heard Scott Garceau from 105.7 The Fan explain that the 49ers with a stout defense and hard-nosed running game are built for tough road playoff games. That may be true, but to truly develop a good idea of who has an edge going into this game, we'll have to take a closer look at a few other major factors.
Possibly the most important factor going into this game is the health of each team's personnel for each team. If you'll recall, last year I predicted that the 49ers defense would struggle to get to Joe Flacco because Justin Smith was essentially operating with one arm as his other arm had a partially torn triceps tendon. That proved correct as the Ravens put up over 30 points on a previously dominant 49ers defense. Over the course of the last week, Justin Smith once again missed a large amount of practice, but he's listed as probable for the game and that's absolutely huge. Aldon Smith's ability to rush the passer suffers without Justin Smith eating up blocks in the middle.
San Francisco's defense is elite once more this season as they rank 5th in the NFL in total yards allowed per game. That defense will come in handy when facing a Green Bay team that has somehow managed to rank 6th in passing yards and 7th in average rushing yards per game this season despite the extended absence of Aaron Rodgers.
This, like the Colts game is one where statistical analysis is tough to rely upon for the Packers because so very much of the team's statistics were recorded with their most valuable player gone. It is for this reason that I'll have to go make my prediction based on less mathematical factors...and that makes me totally uneasy. I already got the Eagles game incorrect possibly because of a lack of in-depth statistical analysis. I would like to utilize more statistical analysis for this game, but it simply doesn't make sense to do so for either team's offense. After all, 49ers could run the read-option and their offensive numbers collected over the course of the season wouldn't mean much for a prediction of this game.
The Packers struggled against the 49ers in the playoffs last year as their offense lacked the balance needed to attack a strong San Francisco defense. The Packers now have far more offensive balance with an elite running back, Eddie Lacy, and great firepower with the return of Rodgers. The 49ers are an elite running team, but they lack the power through the air that they possessed last season. This season the 49ers have the 30th ranked pass offense, and they'll be particularly bad playing in frigid weather with high winds. Anquan Boldin had a great game against the Packers in the season opener, but Kaepernick may have tough time simply delivering him the ball on a night like this.
In the end, I must go with the home team in this matchup. The Packers are used to this weather like almost no other team in the league. Rodgers showed us last week why he's an elite quarterback, and I have faith that that he'll take care of business tonight.
PACKERS 24-21
I ONCE AGAIN APOLOGIZE FOR THE TIMING OF THIS POST. THE BENGALS AND EAGLES MADE A FOOL OUT OF ME AND I'M NOW 1-2 AND OFF TO MY WORST PREDICTION START OF THE HISTORY OF PURPLE NIGHTMARE. LET'S HOPE TONIGHT BRINGS BETTER LUCK.
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