The Ravens aren't in the AFC Championship for the first time in 3 years, but that doesn't mean Baltimore area football fans won't enjoy what's about to transpire on Sunday afternoon. This could be one of the final (if not THE final) playoff showdowns between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. What makes this game interesting is not only the fact that each quarterback is an unquestionable future hall-of-famer, but that each of their respective teams has developed a complete offense from top to bottom including a power running game and a high octane passing attack. Peyton Manning won his first ever playoff game in weather below 40 degrees last weekend against the Chargers, but that was a Chargers team with an injured workhorse running back as Ryan Matthews played through a sprained ankle and finished with only 26 rushing yards on the day.
The Patriots pose a far greater challenge to the Broncos as they're a great cold-weather playoff team with a coaching staff that knows quite well how to beat Peyton Manning's offenses. Both teams have lost a sizable list of defensive pieces since the beginning of the season, and that should produce a high-scoring offensive battle royale. Which one of these top two offenses will come out on top? You may have already made up your mind about which team will win this game, but indulge me for a bit and let's take a look at major matchups and key factors that should give us a better understanding of what to expect from the AFC's top two teams.
PATRIOTS AT BRONCOS
There has been a definite theme to the Denver Broncos' 2013 season: high powered offense with lackluster defense. It may seem perplexing how the elite 2012 Broncos defense could fall so hard in 2013, but it certainly wasn't perplexing to me. Since last season, the Broncos lost Elvis Dumervil and spent much of the season playing without Von Miller who is out for the rest of the season with an injury. Taking away any teams two best pass rushers in a pass-happy league is a recipe for a defensive collapse. Great pass rushers can cover up deficiencies in a secondary, and their absence can reveal those deficiencies in a hurry. Despite having the 8th ranked run defense in the league, the Broncos pass defense ranked near the bottom of the league at 27th in passing yards allowed per game. The Broncos defense also allowed the 11th most points per game this season, and that might have been a major problem if the Denver offense hadn't scored 606 points in 2013.
The Patriots offense didn't score anywhere near 606 points. That, however, doesn't mean that they weren't one of the highest scoring teams in the league this season. Only the Bears and Broncos scored more than the Patriots this season; it just happens that the Broncos scored a LOT more. What's more impressive about the Patriots' offensive production is that their offensive personnel and changed so drastically over the course of the season, and somehow Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and company found a way to remind dominant and consistently win games. When Gronk went down again, the Patriots placed a new emphasis on power running that absolutely flattened the Colts last week. It wasn't as though the Patriots had great defensive personnel to back up their offense either as season ending injuries took down players such as Vince Wilfork and Jerrod Mayo. Thus, the theme of the Patriots' 2013 season should be something like the following: finding ways to win with whatever tools are available.
The last meeting between the Patriots and Broncos was far away from Denver and decided by a razor-thin overtime margin. As close as that game was, it demonstrated the interesting offensive characteristics and capabilities of both teams. First, it demonstrated that the Broncos don't require a great performance from Peyton Manning to put up a lot of points in a hurry as Knowshon Moreno was nearly unstoppable running the football. Second, it demonstrated that the Patriots can put up points just as fast or faster even when faced with 24 point deficit at halftime due to the surgical precision of Tom Brady and a well-coached opportunistic Patriots defense.
The Patriots defense is not elite by any stretch of the imagination. The unit has certainly lost plenty of star players, but one way or another, they're more effective than the Broncos defense. That brings me to the key factor that will likely decide this game: the Broncos' loss of Chris Harris. Last week the Broncos held the Chargers scoreless in the first 3 quarters of the game, and it looked as though the game could end in an utter blowout. By the 4th quarter, however, the Broncos lost one of their starting cornerbacks to a torn ACL, and the Chargers came roaring back in a hurry to shrink the Broncos' lead to just one touchdown. The Chargers defense failed to get Phillip Rivers the ball back one more time, and the Broncos obviously won the game, but it became apparent that the Broncos defense was suddenly an entirely different animal with a backup corner playing. That same backup won't be starting this week, but that only means an extremely OLD cornerback will be starting instead. Champ Bailey is still serviceable at his position, but I highly doubt his 35 year old legs will be able to contend with the quickness of Danny Amendola or Julian Edelman.
When it comes to the playoffs, I tend to believe that the most complete teams are the most successful teams. That idea only becomes more apparent the deeper we go into the playoffs as the competition has been whittled down to only the strongest teams, and any glaring weaknesses are usually exploited by elite opponents. The Patriots are simply the more complete team going into this game. Their defense is stronger than that of the Broncos, and their offense is easily just as potent with the recent surge in their power running game. Don't get me wrong, I will be rooting for Peyton Manning to get his chance to get his second and final ring and ride off into the sunset just the way that Ray did in that perfect storybook fashion, but my brain says the Patriots are going to win this game. This will not be a particularly cold game, so that won't be in the Patriots' favor, but I simply don't see how the Broncos will be able to slow down Tom Brady and LeGarrette Blount enough to win this game. No matter who wins, I have a feeling this will be an epic showdown the world of sports will long remember and possibly a defining moment in the careers of either or both of these future hall-of-famers.
FINAL PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 38-33.
The great thing about this Championship Sunday is that the two best teams from each conference are playing. I know it's always fun to see an underdog make it all the way through the way the Ravens did in both of their Super Bowl runs, but this is a chance to see one of the best rivalries of the last decade and a half as well as the best NEW rivalry of the last few seasons. The 49ers and Seahawks have become what the Ravens and Steelers used to be a few years ago. They're both saturated with big, physical, talented players, and they're built for smash-mouth running and suffocating defense. Both teams also possess talented young quarterbacks still on their rookie contracts, and that allows each team the salary cap space to maintain an extreme level of talent and depth surrounding Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson.
The 49ers haven't won in Seattle for years now, and the homefield advantage the Seahawks possess is in large part to blame. It's difficult to communicate inside that historically loud stadium, and the Seahawks organization goes to great lengths to make sure of that. The most recent example of this is the fact that the Seahawks organization wouldn't even SELL tickets to the NFC Championship to residents of the state of California...sounds like they're a little scared that opposing fans might take over their stadium in the way Ravens fans invaded every stadium of the playoffs last post-season.
The last time the 49ers played in Seattle Seahawks Stadium, they were basically shut down and embarrassed in every phase of play. Anquan Boldin was shut down, Vernon Davis failed to pose much of a matchup threat, and Michael Crabtree--well he wasn't even playing. A lot has changed since the last time these teams faced one another in Seattle, so let's take a look at exactly what is different now.
49ERS AT SEAHAWKS
The 49ers made a fool out of me the last two weeks. I thought they weren't built to outscore the Packers in one of the coldest football games in NFL history. I also that that if their offense only scored 23 points on a poor Green Bay defense, then there was no way they'd put up enough point on the road against a Panthers team that held them to 9 points in San Francisco a month earlier. I now know better. In both of these cases, the 49ers were simply the more complete team. The 49ers have a better combination of offense and defense than both the Packers and Panthers. The Seahawks are also a more complete team than both the Packers and Panthers, but their offense impresses me far less than that of the 49ers now that Michael Crabtree is back.
There's no doubt in my mind that Marshawn Lynch will put up a good chunk of yards on the ground against San Francisco. It's likely that Lynch could put up at least 100 yards and 1-2 rushing touchdowns. The problem for Seattle is that they don't have a great number of offensive weapons BESIDES Lynch and his backup, Turbin. The Seahawks are 26th in passing yards per game, and they'll be without Percy Harvin who suffered an early concussion last week against the Saints. What SHOULD scare Seattle fans is just how little offensive production their team achieved at home against a Saints defense that isn't nearly as strong on the road.
Last week Russell Wilson threw for a pathetic 103 passing yards with no touchdowns, and he was sacked 3 times. It should be noted that the Saints possessed the 2nd ranked pass defense in the league this season, but that didn't stop Wilson from throwing for 310 yards and 3 touchdowns against that very same Saints defense in Week 13 of the regular season. Russell Wilson didn't need to throw for over 300 yards last week to beat the Saints, but the fact that the Seahawks only won by a margin of 8 points should be at least somewhat troubling for anyone in Seattle. The Seahawks allowed 15 4th quarter points by Drew Brees, and showed definite defensive weaknesses when they needed to keep the ball away from a dangerous elite quarterback.
The 49ers had an even lower ranked pass offense than the Seahawks during the regular season. That hasn't seemed to matter in the playoffs, however, as Colin Kaepernick got right back to his previous post-season form with 98 rushing yards and 227 passing yards against the Packers while Anquan Boldin put up an impressive 136 receiving yards and Kaepernick scored two touchdowns against a tough Panthers defense. Two major keys have led to an upswing in the 49ers offensive production on the road in this post-season. The first is the return of Michael Crabtree. Crabtree doesn't always put up fantastic statistics, but his presence helps to stretch opposing defenses, take pressure off of Boldin and Vernon Davis, and further open things up for the 49ers power running game. The second factor has been the change in the style of play of Colin Kaepernick. Earlier in the season, Kaepernick was encouraged to play from the pocket more as it was less risky than frequently running the football. As a result, Kaepernick's statistics took a hit, and many were wondering is he had regressed. In the post-season, however, each game could be the last any team plays if they don't win, and that means it has behooved the 49ers to allow Colin Kaepernick to play the athletic style of football that got his team to the Super Bowl last season.
I can see exactly how many fans, players, and commentators would give this game to the Seahawks. The Hawks have been nearly unbeatable at home this season, and the 49ers were one of their many victims in that ferocious Seattle stadium. This, however, is not the same 49ers team as the one the Seahawks faced in Week 2. The 49ers have won their last 8 games, and they won their last 3 games on the road against the Cardinals, Packers, and Panthers. The Seahawks don't appear to be nearly as dominant as they were prior to Week 14...when they last faced the 49ers and lost. I get it, Seattle has an incredible homefield advantage, but the 49ers are on a road roll right now. Like the Ravens of last season, there's no homefield advantage strong enough to beat the hottest and currently most complete team in the NFL. I'm going with the underdog here.
FINAL PREDICTION: 49ERS 24-20.
I know I'm going against the popular opinion with both of these picks, but the Seahawks and Broncos simply don't appear as strong as their opponents this week. Once again, I could be proven totally wrong, and this season I'm ok with that. If I'm wrong about these picks, it doesn't mean that my reasoning wasn't sound, it just means that anything can happen in the NFL, and no one can predict the future. Besides, I'm currently ranked 149th in the entire country in NFL.com's fantasy playoff challenge. As it stands, if both the Broncos and Seahawks prove my predictions wrong, it means all of my fantasy players advance to the Super Bowl, and I have a legitimate shot at winning the grand prize. I guess you could say I've hedged my bets this week. I stand by my picks though, and I'm looking forward to some good food, good beer, and great NFL playoff action.
A WORD ABOUT THE RAVENS COACHING STAFF
I can't say I wasn't upset the Ravens didn't at least appear to make an attempt to request an interview with Norv Turner for the vacant offensive coordinator position in Baltimore. Maybe the Ravens already knew the Browns wouldn't grant a divisional opponent permission to interview one of their coordinators, but it still hurts to see one of the best OC's in the game slip through our collective metaphorical fingers (wings?). I was at first a bit troubled by the idea of the Ravens hiring Kyle Shanahan after I heard many Redskins fans complain about him this season. I later realized, however, that Shanahan coordinated 4 top 10 offenses in the last 6 seasons. That fact may have to do with the amount of talent surrounding him on most of those offenses, but I'm willing to entertain the idea that the guy at least knows what he's doing more than Jim Caldwell considering the fact that Caldwell had only been an offensive coordinator for 7 games before this season.
The idea of hiring Kyle Shanahan doesn't scare me. What ACTUALLY scares me is the idea that the Ravens brought in Shanahan to interview simply because his offensive style would mesh well with Juan Castillo's horrendous blocking schemes. This is troubling because it appears as though John Harbaugh has gone totally off the deep end if he thinks that one should choose an offensive coordinator to fit an offensive line coach rather than the other way around. Castillo did the worst job coaching the Ravens offensive line of any offensive line coach in team history. Why Harbaugh appears to want to design the Ravens offense around his failed collection of ideas is totally beyond me. I wanted to give Harbaugh at least some credit for the Ravens success during Flacco's first 5 seasons, but it appears as though the Ravens mostly won in spite of Harbaugh and not because of him. After all, the Ravens were a team completely STACKED with talent before Flacco and Harbaugh arrived. The only problem was that the Ravens lacked a serious quarterback. Steve McNair became a Ravens in 2006 and suddenly the Ravens fought to a 13-3 record and a first round by in the playoffs.
It's not as though Steve McNair was some incredibly productive quarterback. The veteran passed for just over 3000 yards in 2006, but that was enough to win games given the sheer amount of talent surrounding him. Baltimore was a team that simply needed a competent quarterback as the missing piece to their puzzle, and when Flacco arrived, the Ravens got exactly that. Since then, the Ravens have often been held back by the decisions and friends Harbaugh brought to the organization including Greg Mattison, Cam Cameron, and most recently Juan Castillo.
Now the Ravens have no Ray Lewis and no Ed Reed. Their senior leadership in the locker room is gone with seemingly no one left to pick up the baton and run with it. If Harbaugh's team can turn things around in 2014, then I will redact my criticism of him and chalk 2013 up to a post-Super Bowl hangover. If Harbaugh can hire the correct offensive coordinator and successfully compell better results from Juan Castillo, then he's truly a great coach, but for now I am left scratching my head at his cronyism and hunger for absolute power on this team at the expense of strong leadership from the players.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!! (GO GET A REAL OC!)
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