Ok, I'm back on track with two successful playoff predictions to take my record to a still-embarrassing 3-3 this post-season. It's too bad everyone and their mother picked the Patriots and Seahawks to win their respective games on Saturday, so there's simply not much to brag about. I can tell you, however, that getting predictions correct sure beats the alternative.
The Patriots showed once again that they're a team with a complete offense that can run the ball just as well as it can pass. That might just come in handy at the AFC Championship next week. Andrew Luck showed us that he is strikingly similar to his Colts predecessor with a healthy dosage of passing yards and a pair of touchdowns--but also another handful of interceptions and an inability to win playoff games in harsh, cold environments. Luck is unquestionably talented, but his team simply wasn't build to go on the road and win playoff games this season. It's actually quite unfortunate for the Colts that they traded away a first round pick for Trent Richardson as he has proven himself a total bust after showing early explosion and promise as a rookie in Cleveland.
The Seahawks did exactly what everyone thought they would do when they suffocated the Saints offense for the vast majority of their game in Seattle. Drew Brees' elite regular season stats simply don't seem to mean much when they don't translate into serious post-season success. The man is the only quarterback in the history of the NFL to throw for over 5,000 yards in 4 seasons, and 3 of those seasons were this year, last year, and the year before that! As you can probably guess, I'm not sold on the idea of dome teams finding consistent success in the post season. It's possible for them to go to a Super Bowl if they manage to secure homefield advantage through the playoffs, but that scenario isn't particularly common, and it's far more common for tough, outdoor teams to fare better in the post-season. The Seahawks did lose Percy Harvin for next week because of a concussion, and that will likely prove a major factor as both of the Seahawks possible future opponents play defense far better than a Saints. The Saints defense, in fact, actually held its own against Seattle's offense...well at least much better than I think many people anticipated. Seattle will have to put up a far more impressive offensive performance if it hopes to beat either of the other two top defenses in the league next weekend. Speaking of the other top defenses, let's get to tomorrow's predictions!
SUNDAY NFL PREDICTIONS
49ERS AT PANTHERS
If I can predict this game correctly, I'll feel that I've finally gotten back on the right track with my prediction analysis process. The Panthers played the 49ers in San Francisco in Week 10 of the regular season and won an incredibly tight game 10-9. It's always difficult to win on the road in the NFL, but to travel to the opposite coast and do so in Candlestick Park is an unquestionably impressive feat. Logic would dictate that if the Panthers beat the 49ers in San Francisco earlier this season, than Carolina should definitely once again handle the 49ers at home. The problem is that, as I mentioned yesterday, the 49ers offense is a totally different animal with its #1 wide receiver back.
Yes, Anquan Boldin fans, Michael Crabtree is unquestionably the most talented receiver playing for the 49ers. Crabtree is acrobatic with great hands and can actually separate from defensive backs. Boldin took over a couple of games this season with sensational receiving performances, but he basically disappeared last week against a lackluster Green Bay secondary. More importantly, Anquan Boldin only managed 23 receiving yards at home against the Panthers defense, and that was after the 49ers had a bye week to rest up and prepare for Carolina.
With the return of Michael Crabtree, the 49ers simply no longer require a great performance from Boldin to win games though he still has produced in the receiving department. Boldin is still an excellent blocker to aid in San Fran's running game, and he can still go up and make catches in heavy coverage, especially if Crabtree and Vernon Davis draw heavy coverage and stretch the field. The 49ers might just be the most complete team left in the NFC or even the NFL at this point, but they're so similar to the Seahawks and Panthers that picking the 49ers based on their perceived completeness could be unwise...especially since they once again must go on the road.
The 49ers are arguably the NFL's hottest team as they've won their last 7 games. The Panthers, however, have a legitimate claim to that very same title as they've won 11 out of their last 12 games. Their only loss in the last 12 games came against the Saints in New Orleans. The Panthers then proceeded to beat the Saints in Carolina and put to rest any doubts that the Panthers are the better of those two teams. Suffocating defense is the reason for much of the Panthers' success this season. The Panthers defense allowed exactly 12 points per game at home this season. That 12 point average is less than half of the 25.875 points that the Panthers offense scored at home this season, and that could make things frustratingly difficult for the 49ers.
The 49ers have been on quite a tear as of late with their 7 game winning streak. Michael Crabtree has only played in 6 of the last 7 games, so we'll only use stats games during that period. The 49ers have scored an average of 22.5 points per game since Crabtree's return, and some of those games have been against teams with defenses of similar strength to that of the Panthers. In the last 6 games, the 49ers played the Seahawks in San Francisco and the Cardinals in Phoenix. San Francisco only managed to score an average of 21 points per game, but their strong defense allowed them to win anyway. But will the 49ers be able to put up enough points on the road against a team that held them to 9 points at home earlier this season?
One thing I noticed after looking over Michael Crabtee's game log for the 6 games he's played in this season was the sharp drop off in his receiving production when he's facing top 10 ranked pass defenses. I know this flies in the face of what I previously wrote about Crabtree being the 49ers' most talented receiver (I still believe that to be true) but his only truly dominant games came against the 21st and 24th ranked pass defenses in the NFL. Sure he looked great against the Packers, but what made that feat impressive was the environment in which he played that game, not the players he faced. Maybe it's Crabtree's presence that opens up things for Boldin and not the other way around, but I don't expect Michael Crabtree to put up big receiving numbers against the Panthers on Sunday.
The 49ers will likely be without Carlos Rodgers for a second straight week, but they should still have a strong secondary. I'm willing to bet Steve Smith will play for the Panthers after hurting his knee two weeks ago against the Saints. The 49ers simply had more players listed on their injury report and less time to recover before this game. I don't see any concrete evidence to suggest that the 49ers can't pull off a win in Carolina, but the fact that the Panthers handled the 49ers offense so well earlier this season and the fact that Michael Crabtree mostly disappears against top defenses makes me think that the well rested home team with a great defense and running game will win this game. The 49ers are quite similar to the Panthers in a variety of ways, but the Panthers are simply better at home than the 49ers are on the road. The 49ers looked great last week, but they were playing against a poor Green Bay defense and still only managed to put up 23 points. The 49ers could once again make me look like a fool for better against them, but everything I've evaluated here tells me that Cam Newton and company will once again top the 49ers. This one, like the last meeting between these two teams, should be painfully close.
FINAL PREDICTION: PANTHERS 24-21.
CHARGERS AT BRONCOS
This could be one of the most difficult games to predict this season because it features a matchup between divisional rivals that split their games this season. The problem is that the Broncos beat the Chargers in San Diego and the Chargers beat the Broncos in Denver. Sure, Peyton Manning didn't have Wes Welker last time the Chargers traveled to Mile High Stadium, but even though Welker has returned, Von Miller's season is over because of a knee injury. I could rattle off statistics about how many points the Broncos have put up at home this season versus how the Chargers have fared on the road, but most of the Broncos' home games aren't relevant because they featured comparatively high game temperatures to those of the last month.
It's true that Peyton Manning has never won a playoff game in temperatures below 40 degrees, but tomorrow's game will be far from the coldest in which he's played. Denver's forecast is for a high of 42 degrees and a low of 30 degrees. It should be roughly 37 degrees at the beginning of the game, and that's much warmer than the temperatures in Denver over the last couple of weeks. It may be that Manning is finally over-prepared for the weather of a cold playoff game.
The Chargers certainly don't shy away from road games in inclement weather. Philip Rivers performed well against the Broncos defense one month ago despite bitter cold temperatures. The Chargers then went on to hand the Bengals their only home loss of the season last week despite miserable cold rain. Part of the Chargers' ability to beat the Bengals was their insistence on sticking with the running game to set up the pass. The Broncos have also run the ball well this season, and that has helped them to take pressure off of Peyton Manning when his offensive line has failed to give him enough time to consistently drop back to pass.
The Chargers were successful in putting a lot of pressure on Peyton Manning and forcing him to make poor throws in their last meeting in Denver. I believe their success came in large part from the absence of Wes Welker. With Wes Welker in the game, Manning has of one the best short route running receivers in the game to whom he can find and target quickly. That ability to release the ball quickly and connect with Welker is what helps to take pressure off of Manning. Without that short and intermediate threat, the Chargers were able to take away a strong dimension of the Broncos offense.
The Broncos are rested, they're loaded on offense, and they're at home. It's not a warm weather game, but it's also not going to be rainy or particularly cold for Denver in January. Oh! I almost forgot to mention that Ryan Matthews is questionable and won't be 100% if he does end up playing as he's suffering from a sprained ankle from last week's game. Matthews' absence or lack of good health will likely take away a big dimension to the Chargers' rushing attack and, thus, their offense. Danny Woodhead is good, but he's a complimentary back and not capable of carrying this team's running game himself. Peyton will have his first cold playoff win of his career.
FINAL PREDICTION: BRONCOS 28-23
WHETHER OR NOT MY SUNDAY PREDICTIONS ARE CORRECT, LET'S HOPE FOR SOME HEART-STOPPING GRIDIRON ACTION THIS SUNDAY!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!....PLEASE GET BACK TO THE PLAYOFFS SO THIS CLOSING MAKES MORE SENSE!
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