ROUGH START TO THE PLAYOFFS
There's no question I was humbled with a 1-3 start to my playoff predictions. I must admit that I simply didn't put in the sheer amount of time that I had in years past as my current job and work schedule leave me with far less opportunity to spend 16 hours a week researching and writing. With that said, I'm also reminded that no one can be perfect or even nearly perfect in their football predictions all the time, but there definitely some points that, had I put more thought and time into my research and analysis, I possibly would have realized and taken into account.
The first major point I should have taken into consideration (and this is something of which I was well aware) was that the Bengals, as an organization, have not won a playoff game in 23 seasons. It doesn't matter how good they've been at home, and it doesn't matter that they beat the Ravens the week before because the Bengals have simply failed to win playoff games for about as long as I've been watching football on television. I know that a team's historical record shouldn't have much bearing on current predictions since the vast majority of Bengals players from the last 23 seasons are no longer on the team. With that said, a more relevant statistic is the fact that the Bengals have the second longer tenured head coach in the NFL behind Bill Belichick in Marvin Lewis. One way or another, Lewis has never been able to prepare a team adequately to win a playoff game during his time as an NFL head coach. The Bengals, most recently have been to the playoffs for the past 3 seasons in a row and have won the AFC North division twice in the last 5 seasons and STILL somehow haven't managed to win a single post-season game.
The second point I should have taken into account was the fact that Andy Dalton threw 4 interceptions the week before at home against the Ravens. Dalton played poorly in that game and the only thing that kept his team from losing was the fact that the Ravens offense was playing far more poorly. It should have, thus, come as no surprise to me that Dalton would produce another handful of turnovers against the Chargers. I assumed that the Chargers simply weren't particularly good as they only squeaked into the playoffs because some late game blunders by the referees in their game against the Chiefs' second string players. I figured that if the Chargers weren't good enough to convincingly beat a team of backups at home, then there would be no way they'd upset a team that went unbeaten at home during the regular season. It's possible the Chargers simply looked past the Chiefs knowing that Kansas City would be sitting most of its starters. One thing is for sure: the Chargers most certainly did NOT look past the Bengals. The Chargers exposed the Bengals defense for what it truly was at this point in the football season...depleted.
The third thing I should have taken into account doesn't pertain to the Bengals game, but it does pertain to yet another game I misjudged. The Eagles were favorites at home to beat the Saints as the Saints have never won playoff game on the road in the history of their franchise. Had I simply taken a more thorough glance at various offensive and defensive units of both the Eagles and Saints, I would have picked the Saints without question. I'm embarrassed that I missed this, but the Eagles had the worst ranked pass defense in the league and the Saints had the second ranked pass defense in the league. As great as the Eagles' rushing was this season, it wasn't strong enough to operate without the serious threat of the pass. Nick Foles is a more talented young quarterback than most people give him credit, but Foles has to put up a lot of yardage and a lot of points in order to beat good teams, and there was no way Nick Foles was going to light up the second ranked pass defense in the league. It was certainly a close game, but in the end, the Eagles defense wasn't good enough to stop an elite quarterback. Oh! And had I looked but a little bit closer I would have learned that the Eagles' home record this season (4-4) was only barely better than the Saints' road record (3-5). The Saints aren't a great road playoff team, but they can definitely beat a team with the worst pass defense in the league regardless of the setting.
The fourth thing I should have taken into consideration became abundantly clear in the 49ers and Packers game. The 49ers have Michael Crabtree back healthy and that made all the difference in the world against a lackluster Packers secondary. It didn't matter that Boldin didn't have a big day because Crabtree was in rare form. I should have totally disregarded the 49ers' 30th ranked passing yards per game average because Crabtree wasn't on the field for most of the season. That statistic should have been thrown out by my old standards. I also should have taken into consideration that the 49ers are simply a more complete team than the Packers with stout defense and solid running game. The game came right down to the wire, but the 49ers were able to keep the Packers out of the endzone on Green Bay's final drive, and Green Bay wasn't able to halt the 49ers' final drive to set up the game winning score. The new pass-friendly rules have clearly not changed the time-tested adage that to win in harsh playoff environments a team needs to be able to run the ball and play stout defense.
Hats off to the Chargers, 49ers, and Saints for reminding me that the real reason I had so much success predicting playoff games in the past two seasons was the extra time I spent evaluating every little detail. I took in-depth looks at injury reports, thoroughly examined matchups, and spent hours looking at statistics. I can't promise I'll get every prediction right, but I'll do my best to stick to the methods that made my last two post-seasons of predictions so successful. Now, enough of last week, it's time to get to Saturday's games!
SATURDAY NFL PREDICTIONS
SAINTS AT SEAHAWKS
I feel a tad more confident predicting this game as the Seahawks absolutely pummeled the Saints the last time these teams met in Seattle...but somehow that makes me uneasy. To make sure that my confidence in Seattle is justified, let's take a look at some statistics, shall we?
The Seahawks haven't exactly been red-hot recently. Since their bye week, the Seattle has alternated wins and losses. To understand the Seahawks current state, we must examine their two losses over the last 5 games. The first of these losses came on the road against their biggest rival, the 49ers. This loss may have surprised some, but it didn't surprise many as the 49ers have beaten the Seahawks in close games in San Francisco in recent years even though the Seahawks absolutely obliterated the 49ers in Seattle. In this particular game, both the 49ers and Seahawks had similar passing numbers. Kaepernick and Wilson both threw for under 200 passing yards with one touchdown, one interception, and two sacks. The 49ers, however, rushed for nearly double the yards (163) that the Seahawks produced on the ground (86) and that was the difference maker in what proved to be yet another tightly contested game in San Francisco.
The next game the Seahawks lost was at home against the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals shocked the world with their 17-10 victory in Seattle as the Seahawks had gone otherwise unbeaten at home this season with what was thought to be the biggest homefield advantage in the NFL. Seattle still probably DOES have the biggest homefield advantage in the NFL, but they happened to run into the team with the first ranked run defense in the league. It didn't matter that Carson Palmer threw 4 interceptions because the Cardinals held the Seahawks to only two scoring drives in the entire game. The Cardinals also dramatically won the time of possession battle as they controlled the ball for over 37 minutes as compared to 22 minutes for the Seahawks.
Maybe the Seahawks simply had a poor undisciplined day against the Cardinals with 9 penalties for a total of 102 yards, but one thing is for certain: the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS ARE NOTHING LIKE THE 49ERS AND CARDINALS. The Saints don't typically excel at stopping the run, and that's one thing a team must do if it hopes to beat the Hawks in Seattle. The Saints have the 2 ranked pass offense in the league with an average of 307.4 passing yards per game, but the Seahawks have the #1 pass defense in the league and only allow 172 passing yards per game. It's not as though Brees hasn't thrown for big chunks of yardage on the road either as he has put up some big numbers away from New Orleans. The issue is that Brees threw 9 of the total interceptions from this season in road games, and struggled against teams with impressive defensive lines including the Rams, Panthers, Jets, and most importantly, the Seahawks!
Drew Brees didn't throw any interceptions when his team last played the Seahawks, but he didn't need to in order to lose that game. The Seahawks defensive backs absolutely blanketed the Saints receivers with coverage, and Brees threw for an uncharacteristic 144 passing yards. The Saints already don't do particularly well on the road, but the do ESPECIALLY poorly against elite pass defenses on the road, and there's no better pass defense than that of the Seahawks.
The bottom line is that the Seahawks are great at stopping the only thing that makes the Saints offense special: the pass. The Saints have the 25th ranked running game in the league, and as we learned before, a team has to be able to run the ball if it hopes to beat the Seahawks. Some might say the Saints will have more success against the Seahawks after having played them and gotten a chance to re-evaluate their game plan going into Seattle, but I simply don't believe the Saints have the defense to stop the Seahawks' running game nor strong enough rushing attack to keep the Seahawks' defense on its toes. No NFL game is a lock, but the outcome of this game appears quite clear.
FINAL PREDICTION: SEAHAWKS 27-17
COLTS AT PATRIOTS
The Patriots are not unbeatable. They have endured major blows to their roster this season including the recent losses of Brandon Spikes and Rob Gronkowski as well as the earlier losses of Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo. The Patriots, however, remain an elite team because of their incredible coaching staff. The question that remains is whether or not the Colts are a strong enough road team to take down Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in Foxboro after the Patriots have had a bye week to rest and prepare for a dome team with a second year quarterback. For the time being, forget your preconceived notions about which of these teams is better, and let's examine statistics to get a truly accurate idea of the probable outcome of this game.
The first thing that I notice as I look at the Colts' record over the course of this season is the fact that they rose to the occasion against some of the best teams in the NFL including the Broncos, 49ers, Seahawks, and Chiefs. I also notice, however, that the Colts also lost to the Dolphins, Bengals, Chargers, Cardinals, and Rams. Losing to the Bengals in Cincinnati wasn't a huge surprise given the Bengals record at home this season, but it may shed light on the type of team that tends to beat the Colts on the road OR at home.
With the exception of the Miami Dolphins, every team beat the Colts this season had a great run defense. Colts lost to teams with the 1st, 5th, 9th, and 12th ranked rush defenses. It's not as though the Colts have a great rushing attack. The Colts, in fact, ranked 21st in rushing yards during the regular season, but the recent emergence of Donald Brown has brought life to their ground game over the past month. Brown hasn't had a ton of carries, but he has averaged an impressive 5.3 yards per carry on the season and 5 yards per carry last week against the Chiefs. It's not surprising, therefore, that in the aforementioned 4 losses to teams with elite run defenses, Donald Brown was held to an average of 1.95 yards per carry. It's clear to me that the loss of Reggie Wayne earlier this season has meant that the Colts have relied on at least the threat of the run to help open things up for their passing game without their most reliable receiving weapon. The Colts defense, after all, isn't elite. They a respectable 13th in pass defense, but near the bottom of the league in rush defense at #26.
More important than their overall defensive ranking is the Colts' level of defensive play on the road. This game is, after all, going to played far away from the controlled temperature and Colt-friendly crowd of Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts played well in their last road game against the slumping Chiefs, but I'd rather not look at their performance against a slumping team in order to help predict how they'll do against the Patriots. The Colts last road game against a winning team was against the Bengals in Cincinnati. Andrew Luck actually had a great game, but his defense most certainly did not. Despite Luck's 4 touchdown passes and 326 passing yards, the Bengals won because the Colts couldn't stop the Bengals ground attack that put up 155 yards and allowed the Bengals to dominate the time of possession battle.
Unfortunately for the Colts, the Patriots also have an elite (9th ranked) running game to compliment their 10th ranked passing attack. What the Patriots DON'T have is a great run defense. The Patriots rank near last in the league at stopping the run, and they struggled two weeks ago to stop the Bills from running the football as the Bills put up 169 yards and and 393 total offensive yards. The more amazing aspect to those stats is that Bills game was played in Foxboro. The Patriots still managed to beat the Bills by two touchdowns, but the the vulnerability against the run remains apparent.
The Colts and Patriots aren't ultimately that different. They both have great quarterbacks, but the Patriots' quarterback better. They both have the ability to run the ball, but the Patriots run the ball better. Both teams struggle to stop the run, but fare better against the pass. The Patriots are unquestionably better at moving the ball on offense while the Colts are marginally better on defense. Two things, however, give the Patriots a serious upper hand in this game. The first is the fact that the Patriots have major homefield advantage against a dome team with a young quarterback with only a single home playoff win under his belt. The second major advantage is that he Patriots are well rested despite their list of major offensive and defensive weapons that have gone down with injuries this season. With the exception of one road loss to the Miami Dolphins, the Patriots have only lost to teams with strong defenses this season. The Colts defense allowed 44 points AT HOME last week, I have a hard time believing that Andrew Luck will have nearly the same fortune of facing a team that could collapse offensively the same way the Chiefs did in the wild card round.
The Patriots are undefeated at home this weekend, they're well rested, and the only non-divisional opponents they've lost to this season have had elite defenses...and even those losses came right down to the wire (especially the controversial loss in North Carolina). The Colts found some luck last week against a team that did everything it could to give the game away in the second half. This is the point at which their luck runs out. Aqip Talib will take away T.Y. Hilton and that will be enough to slow down the Colts' offense. The Patriots will have little trouble putting together a balanced offensive attack against a porous Colts defense in Foxboro.
FINAL PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 38-21.
If all goes as I predicted, I shouldn't pat myself on the back to much as Sunday's games bring much bigger tests of my analytical and predictive abilities. Regardless, I'll take any win I can get after going 1-3 last weekend. This weekend is about redemption, and hopefully I'll gain that redemption using more thorough examination of each upcoming game.
On a Ravens related note, I'd like to address some things that were stated in the State of the Ravens press conference earlier this week. Yes, Ozzie isn't afraid to cut great players, and, yes, Terrell Suggs could ultimately end up not being a Raven next season if his contract situation isn't taken care of in the off-season. I believe, however, that Suggs wants to follow in his mentor's footsteps and retire a Raven. Age isn't catching up to Suggs at all. This season actually isn't entirely uncharacteristic for him. Suggs actually has had up and down years for the Ravens since he's been in the league, and a season in which you record 10 sacks is not a down season...even if his stats dropped off in the second half of the year. I'm confident that Suggs will be amicable regarding a contract extension because an extension ultimately benefits both parties. There's still the danger that Suggs could be insulted by the prospect of a pay cut for next season, but he also shouldn't be too surprised given the fact that he did unquestionably take a major dip in performance in the second half of the season after appearing to be a candidate for defensive player of the year in the first half.
The Ravens most likely won't keep James Ihedigbo, Arthur Jones, Jacoby Jones, Ed Dickson, Dallas Clark, or Michael Oher. The only one out of that group that I truly hope the Ravens retain is Jacoby Jones. Jones is approaching 30 and has never put up elite receiving statistics, but he came in clutch for the Ravens once he recovered from his early season injury. There's truly no better return man in the came than Jacoby Jones. As my family members can tell you, there were numerous occasions this season where the Ravens were in tight games and I happened mutter "jeez, we could really use a huge return from Jacoby right now", and that's exactly what he gave us. No, I don't have a crystal ball, but Jones is simply that much of a threat to go yard pretty much any time he returns a kick or punt. That kind of explosive potential is something that the Ravens simply can't afford to lose right now. If I were in charge of the Ravens off-season moves, I'd find a way to extend Jones' contract by a year in an effort to lower his cap number and create more space to help sign players such as Eugene Monroe, Daryl Smith, and Dennis Pitta.
Ozzie Newsome's decision making isn't perfect, but it's still nearly the best in the league if not the best overall. The Ravens already have 2 Super Bowls in 18 seasons and it says something about their standards that 8 wins and barely missing the playoffs is an incredible disappointment despite incredible roster changes and losses. Juan Castillo did a poor job this season, but there's no way the Ravens are going to stand for him utilizing that same system again this season. If somehow they do, Steve Bisciotti will fire him and hold John Harbaugh totally responsible. With that said, let's see what happens with the offensive coordinator position and how the Ravens fare in the draft and the free agent market. It's entirely possible that with better personnel and pressure to fix things, Juan Castillo may actually do a total 180 and turns things around for Flacco's protection and the Ravens running game.
LET'S HOPE FOR SOME PLAYOFF MAGIC TOMORROW
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS (GET SOME NEW LINEMAN AND A NEW WR!!!)
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