There are few things that make less sense than a 7-win Panthers team going to the playoffs while the 10-win Eagles sit at home kicking themselves after what began as a fantastic season. If the Panthers ultimately WIN a playoff game, however, it will be difficult to argue that they didn't deserve to be in the post-season. The Seahawks, for example, won their division with only 7 wins in 2010, and many complained that winning 7 games wasn't enough to justify a playoff berth. The Seahawks proceeded to quiet their critics by beating the Saints 41-36. The Arizona Cardinals, by contrast, have an impressive 11-5 record, but have lost 4 of their last 6 games and look significantly weaker than just about every single other NFC playoff team as we head into wildcard weekend. Rather than debate who should and shouldn't be in the playoffs, let's simply accept that any team that wins its division deserves a playoff spot regardless of the overall strength of their divisional rivals. Let's instead concern ourselves with who will win this weekend's games.
The NFL post-season is undoubtedly my favorite time of the year with regards to analysis and prediction. This is the point at which we can look back on an entire season's worth of statistics and perform thorough, in-depth analysis to get a clear idea of which teams will likely move on to the next round. This is also the point at of each season when I explain that the key to accurate predictions does not lie in analyzing and taking into account every single statistical category. Accuracy, instead, is achieved by deciding which statistics are truly relevant...and you must make sure to ignore EVERYTHING else. This means ignoring offensive statistics accumulated by the Arizona Cardinals during the period where Carson Palmer was their starting quarterback, and it also means ignoring offensive statistics during the lengthy portion of the Panthers' season when Cam Newton was playing with broken ribs.
Possibly more interesting than the Panthers-Cardinals match-up is the upcoming showdown in Dallas between the Lions and Cowboys. This game pits the NFC's best defensive line up against arguably the best offensive line in the entire NFL. This game is also perplexing because of one peculiar fact: the Cowboys are undefeated on the road, but they're surprisingly beatable at home--where they happen to be playing this weekend. So let's take a look at what the numbers say about each of these upcoming NFC wildcard playoff games!
CARDINALS AT PANTHERS
Bill Parcells once said "you are what your record says you are." The violent nature of football ensures that Parcells' statement could never be universally accurate. Injuries occur with such frequency on the gridiron that a team's roster can be dramatically different from one segment of a season to the next. I've heard sports radio commentators state nearly every year that it's not always the best team that wins the Super Bowl but the team that gets hot a the right time. The Carolina Panthers have won their last 4 games after a 6 game losing streak that consumed the bulk of the middle of the season. It wasn't that the Panthers were incapable of winning football games earlier in 2014. Carolina won their first two games against the Buccaneers and Lions, and it appeared as though the playoff team from 2013 was right back where it left off at the end of last season.
Nagging injuries to Cam Newton and DeAngelo Williams soon left the Panthers inept and ineffective on offense as they dropped back to back losses to the Ravens and Steelers. Any defensive weaknesses were suddenly painfully magnified as Newton couldn't keep his offense on the field long enough to give his defense time to catch its collective breath. The Panthers went on to beat a disappointing Bears team, but that win was followed by six consecutive losses that left many feeling the season was lost.
The Panthers' season WOULD have been lost if it weren't for the equally embarrassing records of every other team in the NFC South division. It took months, but Cam Newton's ribs finally healed, and with that relative state of health came the ability to win football games. The Panthers began their season-ending winning streak by shocking the Saints in New Orleans 41-10. The Panthers then barely beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Browns in Carolina before going to Atlanta for the season finale that would ultimately decide the division champion. I assumed the Falcons would be too strong at home to lose to a Panthers team that only just finished squeaking by two losing teams, but Newton and company absolutely suffocated the Falcons and won 34-3 on the road. Never mind that the Falcons had beaten the Panthers IN Carolina 6 weeks earlier; this was clearly a different team with a healthy Cam Newton.
The Arizona Cardinals, meanwhile, ended their season on a 2-game losing streak. The Cardinals were first beaten like a drum by the reigning Super Bowl champion Seahawks, and then embarrassingly defeated by a 49ers team with nothing left to play for except pride. Arizona has lacked stability from the quarterback position for almost the entire second half of the season, but their defense and grit allowed them to win juuust enough games to ultimately earn a playoff berth. Unlike the Panthers, however, the Cardinals have become undeniably worse heading into the playoffs. Backup quarterback, Drew Stanton, gave the Cardinals competent enough effort and production after Carson Palmer's season ending injury to beat the Lions, Chiefs, and Rams. Against the Rams, however, Stanton went down with a knee injury of his own, and HIS backup, Ryan Lindley, fared far less favorably in his only two starts of the 2014 regular season.
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
The Cardinals finished the season with the 5th ranked defense in the category of points allowed per game. Much like the Ravens, the Cardinals rank near the bottom of the league is pass defense (29th) while their run defense is ranked substantially higher (13th). Unlike the Ravens, however, the Cardinals defense has not rounded into better shape in the final month of the season. The Cardinals allowed a staggering 596 yards and 35 points at home against the Seahawks, and then allowed the 49ers to rush for over 200 yards in a 20-17 loss in Week 17. There doesn't appear to be major differences between defensive personnel from the middle of the season to the end, but the offense's inability to produce has left the defense on the field more frequently and for longer stretches of time.
In their last two games without Drew Stanton, the Cardinals have only produced an average of 17.5 first downs per game and lost the time of possession battle in each contest. Ryan Lindley has, during those two games, thrown 4 interceptions and only two touchdown passes. It's important to note that the two touchdowns Lindley threw were against a team already eliminated from playoff contention weeks earlier. It's also important to note that the Cardinals offense far more productive from a yardage standpoint against the 49ers defense in Week 17 than it was against arguably the best defense in the league (Seattle) the week prior. Despite his 3 interceptions, Lindley threw for nearly 300 yards and the Cardinals finished with 98 yards on the ground.
Unlike the Cardinals, the Panthers have not faced top 10 ranked defenses during their final month of the season. As hot as the Panthers have become as of late, they only faced the Saint, Browns, Buccaneers, and Falcons. With that said, the Panthers held their own against the Seahawks in late October in what ultimately finished off as a 13-9 loss to the reigning champs. The Panthers' season, in fact, has been punctuated by impressive moments against teams about to enter the playoffs. The Panthers, for example, put up 24 points on a fantastic Lions defense in Week 2 and held Matthew Stafford and company a total of 7 points. The Panthers shocked the NFL by tying the Bengals at 37 in Week 6 when Cincinnati was thought to be one of the best teams in the league. Such efforts soon disappeared for a lengthy stretch, but they, nevertheless, showed what this squad can do against top teams when Cam Newton is dialed in.
Interestingly enough, the Panthers actually fared far less favorably at home than on the road during their current 4-game winning streak. That has little to do with some sort of lack of a home-field advantage and more to do with a freak accident. Shortly before the Panthers faced the Buccaneers, Cam Newton was involved in a car accident not far from the Panthers' training facility. Newton was diagnosed with minor fractures in his lower back, but he only sat out one game. To describe Newton as "healthy" right now might be more of a relative term than an absolute status. The two-time Pro Bowl quarterback had off-season ankle surgery and then broken ribs earlier this season that clearly bothered him enough to affect his ability to play. Newton, nevertheless, played through the pain for nearly half the season, but couldn't win football games after a point. Now Cam appears to be recovered enough from his ankle surgery, broken ribs, and broken back to play winning football. Newton doesn't even appear on the injury report anymore, and the only Panther ON the report is listed as likely to play this weekend.
At this point, it has become clear that the Cardinals' offensive statistics before Ryan Lindley became starting quarterback are totally irrelevant as Lindley has just been named the starter for Saturday's game. This is one of the most frustrating games to look at from a statistical standpoint because the fact Lindley has only started 2 games this season, and that means theirs is a profoundly small statistical pool from which to draw conclusions. It has also become abundantly clear that statistics from games during Cam Newton's period recovery from broken ribs should also not be taken into consideration when predicting this game. We must, instead, look solely at the last two games of the Cardinals and the last 4 games of the Panthers.
The Panthers defense has come alive in the last month. Carolina has allowed 10.75 points per game in their last 4 games, and they did so even in games where offensive production wasn't particularly high such as the game Cam Newton missed after his car accident. The Cardinals, by contrast, have scored 11.5 points per game since Ryan Lindley became the starting quarterback. The Cardinals had been an impressively stout defense for most of the season, but without serious offensive production, their average points allowed has risen dramatically as of late. The Cardinals defense allowed 19.7 points per game through 14 weeks, but the average in the last two weeks of the season was a staggering 27.5 points per game. The Panthers offense has averaged 27.75 points per game in the last month of the season (almost exactly the same number of points that the Cardinals defense has allowed on average recently). The Panthers offense has averaged 30.66 points per game during that stretch in games that Cam Newton has actually started.
The numbers simply don't lie here. The Panthers defense has been stout as of late, and the their offense has been wildly productive against teams with poorly ranked pass defenses (Saints, Buccaneers, and Falcons). Carolina is about to face yet another team with a similarly ranked pass defense in the Arizona Cardinals (29th in the NFL). Arizona's lack of a running game (ranked 31st in the NFL) means that they don't have much ability to be productive on the ground or through the air.
PREDICTION:
It doesn't appear as though the Cardinals have the ability to outplay the Panthers in any particular phase of this game. Their quarterback isn't effective, their running game is nearly the worst in the league, their pass defense is ranked near the bottom of the league, and they lack a single wide receiver with 900+ yards on the season despite the presence of Larry Fitzgerald. The Panthers have looked very good beating up on losing teams, but the fact that they were able to go into New Orleans and into Atlanta and shut down the Saints and Falcons means their defense has once again rounded into the form we saw last season. I can't see the Panthers winning more than 1-2 games this post-season, and 2 is likely a bit of a stretch, but they should easily be able to handle a Cardinals team absolutely decimated by key injuries. PANTHERS 45-17
LIONS AT COWBOYS
I love this match-up. The Cowboys feature the most productive running back in the league this season, and the Lions boast the league's top run defense. The Cowboys are undefeated on the road, but they've lost half of their games at home...where they will be playing on Sunday. The Lions have had decent offensive production at home in Detroit...but they'll be playing on the road on Sunday. Neither the Cowboys or the Lions has had the major injury-related personnel issues that the Cardinals and Panthers have dealt with, so there's a much larger pool of statistics from which to draw for analysis. Let's get to it!
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
There is a temptation when predicting Cowboys home games to base predictions on how well the Cowboys have performed overall this season. That strategy has proven surprisingly unreliable as the Cowboys lost 4 of their 8 home games this season despite going undefeated on the road. The most curious aspect of all is the fact that there are two pairs of divisional games the Cowboys played that display the pronounced discrepancy between the Cowboys' vulnerability at home and their fierce strength on the road. Dallas lost to the Redskins 17-20 in Week 8, but they utterly obliterated the Redskins 44-17 in the final week of the season. The Cowboys were embarrassed by the Eagles at home on Thanksgiving 33-10, but they redeemed themselves and helped to keep the Eagles out of the playoffs by beating Chip Kelly's squad in Philly 38-27 in Week 15. That means the Cowboys scored an average 13.5 points at home against the Redskins and Eagles, but they scored an average of 41 points on the road versus those same two teams. The Cowboys allowed an average of 26.5 points in both home games, but only allowed 22 points per game on the road.
The Dallas Cowboys have scored an average of 24 points per game at home this season, but I consider their final home game statistically irrelevant as it was against a Colts team that sat its starters for a large chunk of the game. If one removes the Cowboys-Colts game, the Cowboys' home scoring average falls to 21.42 points per game. In those same seven games, Dallas allowed an average of 23.42 points per game. These already aren't encouraging averages , but the more alarming issue is the list of teams the Cowboys were actually able to beat at home. The Cowboys managed to beat the Giants, Saints, Texans, and Colts at home, but I must again remind readers that the Colts stood to gain nothing by beating the Cowboys and pulled their starters during the game. If the Colts game is subtracted, the Cowboys only managed to beat a single winning team at home all season.
All four of the teams that beat the Cowboys in Dallas had one thing in common; they all finished with run defenses ranked in the top half of the league. Oddly enough, however, the Cowboys were able to take down a Seahawks team that finished the year ranked 3rd in run defense and 1st in the league in pass defense. I cannot offer any educated reason as to why the Cowboys could perform so well on the road and falter in half of their games at home, but that's not a question that needs to be answered at this point as the task at hand is predicting how the Cowboys will perform in their upcoming home game.
The Detroit Lions are a far more typical dome team than the Cowboys. They put up solid and sometimes impressive offensive numbers...at home. The Lions scored an average 24.875 points per game at home this season, but they only managed to score an average 15.625 points per game on the road. The Lions defense has been one of the best in the league this season, but it allowed 19.625 points per road game, which is exactly 4 more points more than their offense scored on average in those very same games. Just as the Cowboys won half of their home games, so too did the Lions win half of their road games. The Lions were only able to beat teams with losing records on the road much as the Cowboys were mostly only able to beat teams with losing records at home.
So what did we learn here? The Cowboys are quite bad at home while the Lions are roughly equally bad outside of Detroit. The Dallas has a slightly more favorable negative point differential (-2) at home than the Lions have on the road (-4). One thing that bodes quite well for the Lions is their top ranked run defense that should have a decent level of success slowing down DeMarco Murray. Matthew Stafford has been widely described by many as "playing with blinders on" recently, especially on the road. He appears to try to force passes to Calvin Johnson and doesn't appear to go through his progressions often enough to find other open receivers. Megatron hasn't had his typical production this season, and Golden Tate has actually led the Lions in receiving yards with over 1300.
One could try to analyze positional match-ups ad nauseum, but ultimately my conclusion of statistical analysis comes from pure scoring statistics. At 15.625 points per game, the Lions simply don't score enough on the road to beat the Cowboys even on a particularly bad day at home for Dallas. The Lions don't have the familiarity or bitter hatred of Tony Romo and company that the Eagles and Redskins will always maintain, and their running game is so poor (28th in the league) that their offense becomes one dimensional. The Lions scored 10+ points on the road against a winning team only once this season, and they STILL lost that game. The Lions only managed to score 6 points on the road against a Cardinals team that ranked nearly last in the league in pass defense. I don't know what Matthew Stafford has to to do wake up and start putting up points again, but he better figure it out for himself quickly or else his team will continue to appear doomed of their rare playoff appearances.
PREDICTION:
I truly didn't have any idea who I was going to pick when I began writing this segment. I must admit that I pay FAR more attention to the AFC on any given season as an appropriately biased Ravens fan, but looking at the numbers made this decision quite easy in the end. The Cowboys are likely the only team in this playoff field that can ultimately take down the Seahawks in Seattle. How do we know this? They already did it. Because of this, the Cowboys must first win the only home game on their playoffs schedule. That's OK because they're playing against a team that hasn't beaten a winning team on the road all season. COWBOYS 23-16
STAY TUNED FOR AFC WILDCARD PREDICTIONS!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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