Nothing has created more chaos and anxiety in my mind this week than simply writing this post. Believe it or not, I was downright confident and serene while writing my prediction that the Ravens would beat the Steelers. I didn't care that the Steelers bombed the Ravens in Week 9 because the Ravens secondary had changed so dramatically since that point. I also knew just how different the Steelers offense would be without Le'Veon Bell, especially because of the fact that the Ravens defense has improved by leaps and bounds since the beginning of the second half of the season.
This week, I scoured the internet for footage of the Patriots from games they lost or simply narrowly won. I tried to find patterns and trends among the performances of the few teams that challenged or beat the Patriots. I desperately tried to find anything to give myself reassurance and hope that the Ravens had a good chance of once again winning in Foxborough....and I found it.
It's not that I'm still not incredibly nervous as I type these words, but I absolutely found statistics and facts to demonstrate that one of the most complete Patriots teams in nearly a decade still has weaknesses that the Ravens are fully capable of exploiting. I ordinarily worry that the Ravens are going to struggle to stop the Patriots from scoring. It's possible that may happen at times, but that's not actually the thing that worries me the most. The Ravens went up against a Steelers team last week that had the 27th ranked pass defense in the league. The Patriots, despite the presence of Darrelle Revis, aren't exactly elite with the 17th ranked pass defense, but they have a the 8th ranked run defense and the 8th ranked redzone defense.
It doesn't make a tremendous difference who wins the Colts-Broncos game, because the Ravens will be forced to go on the road against either team if they can manage to escape Foxborough with a win. Peyton Manning has shown weakness in the post-season for years, but it's a little bit sad to see him finally start to show significant wear during second half of the regular season as well. I've hated watching my favorite team get picked apart with surgical precision by one of the greatest field generals in the history of the game, but I still marvel at just how the man operates. The day that Peyton Manning hangs up his cleats for good may be near, but I'm hoping the old man has at least one great performance left in him to show the young guys at least once last time just who the NFL's greatest tactician truly is.
It may not matter in the end who wins the AFC. The Seahawks appear frighteningly dominant, and it's difficult to imagine any offense in the AFC having a tremendous success against that suffocating defense. But maybe, just maybe the Seahawks will demonstrate some type of weakness that can be studied and exploited by remaining AFC teams in the next couple of weeks. If there's one thing of which I'm confident it's that the winner of Saturday's Ravens-Patriots match-up will ultimately represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. The Colts have little defense to speak of outside of Lucas Oil Stadium, and the Broncos are limited by Peyton Manning's declining physical ability. With that said, let's begin with the game everyone is dying to see. Let's take a look at the Colts-Bronc....heh heh, just kidding. Let's first take a look at the upcoming Ravens-Patriots match-up!
RAVENS AT PATRIOTS
A tremendous weight was lifted off of my shoulders as the clock hit 0:00 last Saturday night. The Ravens had trounced the Steelers in Pittsburgh--in the playoffs. I was confident the Ravens would win as soon as the final word came 24 hours earlier that Le'Veon Bell was ruled out. Despite that confidence leading up to the game, I actually initially expected the Ravens would be one-and-done in the playoffs this season right after they beat the Browns and the Chiefs beat the Chargers a week earlier. I was pleased that our guys simply made it back to the big dance because they didn't appear to be one of the best teams in the league for much of the regular season. Suddenly, the pleasant surprise of the Ravens domination over the Steelers has been replaced by utter anxiety from both lofty expectations and the fear of those expectations being dashed by one of the teams that I simultaneously despise and respect the most.
The New England Patriots have been the model of consistency in the AFC for well over a decade. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have formed a lasting coach-quarterback combination the likes of which we may never see in a long time. Seldom do head coaches last as long as Belichick, and if they do, seldom to they have at their disposal the same starting quarterback for a decade and a half. Winning 12 games a season has become routine for the Patriots, and they've been to startling number of AFC Championships and Super Bowls during the Brady-Belichick era. The cast of players surrounding Brady has changed drastically from year to year, but Bill and Tom always seem to find a way to make magic with the pieces they have. Those are the reasons I respect the Patriots.
I forgot to mention, however, the way the league protects the Patriots' quarterback and adjusts rules for Tom Brady when he whines. There is actually something commonly referred to as the "Brady Rule", and let's not forget that pesky "Tuck Rule" without which the Patriots would not have won one of their glorious Super Bowls. Brady has even had the nerve to follow referees off the field after losing a game and scream obscenities at them because he didn't like their call...for all to hear...on national television. If you've forgotten that scene, here's the link:
TOM BRADY YELLING AT REFEREE
Then there's Spygate and the evidence that showed the Patriots were not only illegally videotaping their opponents signals but using a secret frequency to communicate with Brady long after he point at which communication would ordinarily be cut off (according to the rules) to a quarterback within the final 15 seconds on the play clock. This is why I despise the Patriots--special treatment, cheating, whining.
Lo and behold, the Patriots can presumably no longer cheat through those methods, the Tuck Rule is no longer in effect, and the Patriots STILL find a way to beat nearly every one of their opponents year in and year out. One has to give them credit for maintaining consistency long after the lingering flames of the cheating scandal died down. The Patriots fans will turn right around and criticize Ray Lewis for having been tried for murder, and they'll bring up Ray Rice and insist that the Ravens knew everything about the incident and attempted in vain to cover it up. They'll bring up that they hate Terrell Suggs, and how they hope to shut his mouth with a victory.
Neither team's fans can claim moral high-ground because BOTH teams have been mired in numerous scandals for years now. The best thing one can do is stop dwelling on off the field issues and stick to discussion of the upcoming showdown. The most satisfying thing as a Ravens fan, however, has been the Ravens' recent post-season success against this impressive franchise. Nearly everyone reading this should be aware that the Ravens hold a 2-1 playoff record against the Patriots, and the one loss the Ravens suffered was painfully close.
The Ravens team that last beat the Patriots in the AFC Championship two years ago is no more. The Ravens defense looks almost entirely different except for Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata, and Courtney Upshaw. Lardarius Webb was on the team that season, but he was out with an injury. Jimmy Smith was on the active roster against the Patriots that season, but he's CURRENTLY out with a season-ending injury. The Patriots look dramatically different as well. Tom Brady is still around, but Rob Gronkowski will be present for the first time against the Ravens since 2011. There are probably more new Patriots defensive cogs than I know about, but there are some seriously impressive pieces. Darrelle Revis is certainly one athlete I never expected to see in a Patriots uniform, but his presence has helped to bring the Patriots defense back to life after many years of mediocrity. I have heard much about Jamie Collins and what a tremendous job he's done in the absence of Jerod Mayo.
These teams are different from those that took the field in 2012 in more ways than they are similar, but the quarterbacks and head coaches haven't changed--nor has the total and utter hatred. Maybe these teams don't play the same brand of football, but they're similar in more ways than their respective fans would prefer to admit. Only fierce competition and a certain level of mutual respect breeds this level of resentment, and I expect nothing less this weekend.
STRATEGIC AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
I heard a journalist from Bleacher Report proclaim on the radio only minutes ago that the Ravens have absolutely NO one that can cover Rob Gronkowski. All week I've listened radio hosts and television analysts speak of the Patriots star tight end as though there is literally no one in the NFL capable of defending him in any capacity. There's no doubt that Gronk is the best tight end in the league when healthy, but I wanted to investigate exactly what kind of season the young guy was having so far. Gronkowski certainly has amassed an impressive number of receiving yards (1,124) and touchdowns (12) in 2014. To say the man is uncoverable, however, is simply false. Gronk is nearly impossible to shut down, but uncoverable? No way.
Rob Gronkowski has been held out of the endzone entirely in one third of the 15 games he's played this season. He has only once scored more than one touchdown, and that 3-touchdown performance came against an embarrassingly bad Chicago Bears defense right before Halloween. There was even an impressive 5-game stretch wherein Gronk had 3 games with over 100 receiving yards and a collective 5 touchdowns. In the last 6 games of Gronk's regular season, however, the smiley behemoth has failed to once total 100 or more receiving yards and was even held to a mere 31 receiving yards against the Jets in Week 16. That isn't to say that Gronk's production was poor over the final 6 weeks. He still managed to score a total of 4 touchdowns and had two games with 98 and 96 receiving yards.
Because of his superb ability to block, his incredible hands, and his ability to shed tacklers, Rob Gronkowski is the most physically dominant and skillfully complete tight end in the league. From a receiving standpoint, however, there is one other major target that has exceeded Rob Gronkowski in over the past 4 seasons...and the Ravens already faced him in 2014.
Jimmy Graham was not a part nearly the same caliber offense to which he had likely grown accustomed during his career as a Saint. The Saints defense was porous and weak, and the Saints offense was markedly less effective without Darren Sproles. The Saints mortgaged their future and let a handful of integral cogs go to other teams specifically in order to clear salary cap space to sign Jairus Byrd a lucrative deal. Byrd suffered a season-ending injury, and the Saints watched the Eagles win 10 games with the aid of a still-explosive Sproles. The Saints, nevertheless, continued to put up elite passing yardage numbers, and that meant plenty of targets to one of the only weapons available: Jimmy Graham.
Graham is 6'7" and 265 pounds. He, a former college basketball player, possesses a fantastic vertical leaping ability and great hands. Graham in his worst season in 4 years still managed to catch for nearly 900 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Because of his incredible height and athleticism, Jimmy Graham is incredibly difficult to cover--but the Ravens were able to do it. Starting Ravens safety, Will Hill, had great success covering Graham for most of the Week 12 match-up in New Orleans. Hill successfully limited Graham to just 47 receiving yards, though he did have two touchdowns. It must be noted that one of those touchdowns was from the 2 yard line in garbage time, and otherwise Hill did an excellent job in coverage including a pick-6 of a throw to Graham.
The difference between Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski is physicality. Gronkowski almost reminds me of the tight end version of J.J. Watt. Watt is, of course, a far more physically dominant athlete than Gronk, but for his position, Gronk is the king. Gronkowski will be used in two major ways against the Ravens. First, he'll be utilized to help slow the Ravens edge rush. Gronk and Suggs got fairly chippy in the 2011 AFC Championship game, and I expect to see more of that. The second way Gronk will be used is as a receiver over the middle and up the seam. I fully expect the Ravens to use the likes of Terrell Suggs and Courtney Upshaw to get physical with Gronk at the line of scrimmage in order ruin Brady's timing with the giant receiver and allow Ravens pass rushers to descend upon Brady. Once Gronk ultimately gets into his route, the Ravens can utilize both safety, Will Hill, and linebacker, C.J. Mosley to cover the star tight end.
One of the biggest misconceptions about this game is that the Patriots have been offensively dominant this season. There's no question that New England has had games where they scored 40 and even 50+ points, but the Patriots have only scored over 23 points once in the last 5 games, and that 41 point performance came against a Dolphins team that just lost its talented starting free safety. The Patriots lost in Green Bay and only scored 21 points in the same venue that the Falcons scored 37 shortly thereafter. The Patriots twice only narrowly the defeated a hopeless Jets team this season, and each time coulda-shoulda-woulda been won by a field goal that never ended up materializing. In order to thoroughly examine the Patriots' weaknesses, we must take a look a both Jets games and each of the 3 legitimate losses the Patriots suffered during the regular season. It's important to note that the season-ending loss to the Buffalo Bills isn't relevant as the Patriots sat critical starters in order to have similar results as an extra bye week.
The 4 teams to demonstrate significant success against the Patriots this season were the Dolphins, Chiefs, Jets, and Packers. The Jets, of course, played the Patriots twice this season, so these teams accounted for a total of 5 games. In all but 1 of these 5 games, Tom Brady was sacked at least 3 times, and in two of these games Brady was sacked 4 times each. Both the Dolphins and Chiefs had great success getting pressure on Brady, but that's not entirely surprising considering that those two teams possessed top 5 pass defenses for most of this season. The Jets, on the other hand, had a pass defense that ranked in the middle of the pack, and that's exactly why their games provide the greatest blueprint for the Ravens' success in Foxborough this weekend.
The Jets not only sacked Brady a total of 7 times this season, they also ran for an average of 166 yards per game against the Patriots this season, and that was without a serious passing game or an even moderately effective quarterback. In their first game against the Patriots in Foxborough, the Jets absolutely dominated the time of possession with 40 minutes and 54 seconds as opposed to the Patriots' 19 minutes and 6 seconds. The Jets and their 5th ranked run defense also limited the Patriots to only 63 yards on the ground. Tom Brady did have 3 passing touchdowns and the Patriots ultimately won the game, but one has to wonder how a team like the Jets COULD have done with a reasonably successful pass offense.
The Ravens finished with an even more highly ranked run defense than the Jets, and their pass rush is unquestionably better as well. The Jets typically play highly competitive games against the Patriots for the same reasons the Ravens do: physicality and familiarity. The Jets, like the Ravens, have tough defensive linemen and an intimate knowledge of Bill Belichick's offensive tendencies. Bill Belichick is incredibly creative and his offensive systems are typically highly sophisticated, but the Jets and Ravens know full well that the key to stopping the Patriots offense is ruin Tom Brady's rhythm and ability to step up in the pocket to deliver accurate passes.
No longer do the Ravens simply rely on Terrell Suggs (12 sacks) and Haloti Ngata (2 sacks) to generate a pass rush by themselves. The ascendance of Pernell McPhee (6.5 sacks), Timmy Jernigan (4 sacks), C.J. Mosley (3 sacks), and of course Elvis Dumervil (17 sacks) has meant pressure comes from all directions with this defensive front. Note: those sack totals don't count those accumulated in last week's playoff game. Tom Brady is a great quarterback with a quick release, but his mobility is limited compared to many of the quarterback the Ravens faced this season including Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill, and even Andy Dalton. The Ravens only just finished placing a fantastic amount of pressure on a far more mobile Steelers quarterback last week, and the Steelers receivers are dramatically more explosive than any on the Patriots' roster. Sorry Patriots fans, Antonio Brown, Markus Wheaton, and Martavis Bryant make up a far more potent receiving group than Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell.
That isn't to say that Edelman and LaFell aren't quite good in their own right. Both receivers had nearly 1000 yards receiving, and LaFell scored 7 touchdowns. Edelman, in fact, gave last year's Ravens secondary absolute fits en route to an embarrassing rout in Baltimore. The combination of LaFell, Edelman, and Gronkowski can be quite potent if combined with a dose of successful running of the football and a fast paced offense to slow the pass rush and keep the defense on its heels. The Patriots will look to establish a passing rhythm and then run the football once things have opened up over the middle. There is no question that this can be an impressive offense, but it has struggled to pull away from teams built in similar fashion to the Ravens.
One of the biggest misconceptions about the Ravens is the idea that the Ravens have a horrible secondary at this point in the season...they do not. That secondary is far from the best we've seen in Baltimore, but it finished the season limiting the last 4 teams to an average of 173 yards per game, and then it helped to hold the Steelers to a single touchdown in Pittsburgh last weekend. The emergence of Rashaan Melvis and the solidification the safety depth chart has helped to limit opposing offenses even when the Ravens themselves struggle to move the ball.
The Ravens did NOT struggle to move the football against the Steelers. Joe Flacco led a fast-paced passing attack that mixed in a healthy dose of running in the first half. The run sputtered in the second half, but Flacco was able to put the team on his shoulders and lead the Ravens to a 30-17 victory over a team that had beaten them 43-23 in that very same venue around mid-season. The Ravens do not have the good fortune going up against the Steelers cornerbacks again. The Patriots corners are FAR more talented, and receivers such a Steve Smith may struggle to separate against defenders such as Darrelle Revis. The Patriots managed to put up 40 sacks on the season, but are not generally regarded as a team that gets heavy pressure on quarterbacks. That, in fact, is a large reason that their pass defense (17th) is only ranked 6 places ahead of the Ravens (23rd). As good as their corners have proven to be, the Patriots have still allowed some sizable passing yardage totals in recent weeks such as 348 yards to the Aaron Rodgers, 346 yards to Ryan Tannehill, and 303 yards to Andrew Luck. It's not that the Ravens haven't given up some massive passing yardage totals this season, but they've given up very little since this particular secondary group came together.
I have more thoughts regarding this showdown than most people would probably want to read, but I'll boil this game down to the most important match-ups. The Ravens front 7 will both be able to get to Tom Brady and stop the Patriots from running the football. The Patriots rank 18th in the league in rushing, and the Ravens rank 4th in the league in run defense. The Ravens have a fierce edge rush, but with healthy Haloti Ngata , Timmy Jernigan, and Pernell McPhee, Tom Brady will not often feel comfortable stepping up in the pocket. Rashaan Melvin, Lardarius Webb, and company have recently gone up against the likes of Andre Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, Antonio Brown, and Mike Wallace. The Patriots wide receivers are no sort unusual challenge. Rob Gronkowski will clearly be a threat all game long, but it's highly unlikely that he'll account for more than a single score as he has only had one multi-score game all season and the Ravens have the 2nd ranked redzone defense in the league.
The Ravens offensive line might have trouble at times opening up holes for Ravens running backs, but that will likely be because the Patriots will have to commit heavily to stopping the run. This, like in the Steelers game, should open things up for the passing attack. The Patriots are cognizant of the fact that the Ravens have far and away the most yards off of pass interference in the league, and second place is quite distant. They have stated, thus, that they're going to have to adjust the way they cover receivers such as Torrey Smith. The strategy of putting Revis on Steve Smith and double-teaming Torrey might have worked in years past, but the Ravens have too many receiving weapons at this point. Owen Daniels and Crocket Gillmore have come up with fantastic clutch catches recently, and Kyle Juszczyk is always available to catch passes out of the backfield. Kamar Aiken and Marlon Brown both provide big, athletic targets that can separate from defenders and use their size to create mismatches, especially Brown. Double-teaming Torrey Smith may have been the key to stopping the Ravens offense last season, but this season features better protection from the offensive line, a far better rushing attack, and an impressive array of receivers the likes of which the Ravens have never seen.
If Geno Smith can twice go up against the Patriots and come only a field goal short of beating Brady and Belichick, the Ravens can ABSOLUTELY do the same. This is a vastly improved Ravens secondary whether or not people want to accept it. I said it last week and few believed me, but the Ravens held one of the league's greatest quarterbacks with one of the league's greatest receiving corps to a single touchdown and a handful of field goals. This healthy and ferocious pass rush greatly aids the secondary's performance, and the vast improvement of the secondary buys time for the pass rush to bear down on its prey.
PREDICTION:
There's no question in my mind that this should be an epic battle. My biggest regret is that these two teams couldn't see one another in the AFC Championship game, because I firmly believe the winner of this game will go on to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. The Ravens pass rush and improved secondary should be enough to limit the Patriots offense in similar fashion to what the Jets were able to accomplish in Week 16. The Ravens have the second ranked redzone defense in the league, and their run defense absolutely elite. The Patriots receiving corps is nothing the Ravens haven't already faced this season, and the Ravens have actually faced numerous pass defenses ranked much higher than New England's including Miami (6th), San Diego (4th), and Cleveland (8th). The Ravens ultimately put up big passing yards against every single one of those elite pass defenses, and New England will be no different. This Ravens team is dialed in and ready for a return to the AFC Championship game. Call me a homer, call me biased, but I feel good going into this game, and I know Joe and the boys do too. RAVENS 27-20
BECAUSE OF TIME CONSTRAINTS, I WILL BE FORCED TO PUBLISH THE ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION FOR THE COLTS-BRONCOS GAME IN A SECOND PART ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE RAVENS-PATRIOTS GAME
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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