The AFC currently features no playoff teams that have not displayed some kind of weakness as of late. Peyton Manning put up a horrendous performance against the Bengals, the Bengals lost two of their past four games, the Colts haven't looked the same since Ahmad Bradshaw was put on injured reserve earlier this season, the Ravens offense has stalled out at times in the last month, the Patriots put up uncharacteristically weak offensive numbers in recent road games, and the Steelers just lost a player that accounted for 39.6% of their total offensive yards since Week 11. Only two of those AFC playoff teams possess defenses that rank in the top ten in yards allowed per game (Ravens and Broncos), and only two rank in the top ten in points allowed per game (Ravens and Patriots). The perception of many is that 2-3 of these teams are MUCH better than the rest, but only 2 wins separates the #1 seed from the #6 seed.
This weekend's wildcard games feature match-ups that resulted in blowouts when each of these pairs of teams last met. The task at hand now is to determine whether enough has changed about these teams to expect different overall outcomes than the last time they each faced their upcoming opponent. It has, after all, been 9 weeks since the Ravens last faced the Steelers and 11 weeks since the Bengals last faced the Colts. It appears as though most sports analysts figure that these are the same teams playing in the same stadiums...soooo same outcome? Sure, why not? Well, that's certainly possible, but it wouldn't be prudent to make such an assumption before a thorough examination of all relevant facts and stats. Let's take a look!
BENGALS AT COLTS
Neither of these teams has given off Super Bowl champion vibes for most of the 2014 season. The Bengals have already lost to 3 of the other 5 AFC playoff teams--and so have the Colts. If the Colts win this week, they will inevitably face a team to whom they've already lost as they were defeated by both the Patriots and Broncos earlier this season. If the Bengals win on Sunday, they have a 50% chance of facing a team in the next round to whom they've already lost in the regular season as they beat the Broncos but lost to the Patriots. Even if the Bengals end up moving on to face the Broncos, however, they will do so in Denver after the Broncos have had a bye week.
Next week we can debate the odds of either the Bengals or Colts beating the Patriots or Broncos. This week, however, we must simply determine which of these two teams is most likely to move on. It's difficult to ignore Marvin Lewis' lack of playoff success as a head coach in the NFL, but I'll try to rely solely on statistics accumulated this season for analysis of this particular upcoming game. My best strategy for analysis of this particular game is to first assess any major differences in personnel since the last two times these teams met, and then attempt to determine what effects, if any, those personnel differences will have on this upcoming match-up.
STATISTICAL ANALYIS
I mentioned earlier that Ahmad Bradshaw was placed on injured reserve during the regular season, and his absence is undoubtedly the biggest offensive personnel difference for the Colts between Sunday's game and their last meeting with the Bengals 11 weeks ago. Bradshaw scored two of the Colts touchdowns and amassed nearly 90 all-purpose yards. Bradshaw led the league in receiving touchdowns by a running back before he became injured, and he had almost at least 1 touchdown per per game. Unfortunately for us, there isn't a great statistical way to demonstrate the impact of the loss of Bradshaw on the Colts ability to win games because the Colts won all but one game they played WITHOUT the dynamic weapon. That, however, has more to do with the comparative lack of quality opponents in the final 6 weeks of the 2014 regular season.
Before Ahmad Bradshaw went on injured reserve, the Colts lost to the Broncos, Eagles, Steelers and Patriots. The very worst of those teams won 10 games, and the rest won at least 11. After Bradshaw went down, the Colts played the Jaguars, Redskins, Browns, Texans, Cowboys, and Titans. The only one of THOSE opponents that the Colts lost to was the Cowboys, and they ended up winning 12 games and the NFC East division.
The Bengals appeared offensively inept in their last trip to Indianapolis, and it's a near certainty that A.J. Green's absence had much to do with that surprising level of ineptitude. Green has had injury issues all season, but when he's healthy, he's one of the best receivers in the game. With A.J. Green out, Andy Dalton was forced to rely on Jermaine Gresham and Mohamed Sanu. Sanu has flashed brilliantly at times this season, but Colts cornerback, Vontae Davis, has been brilliant in pass coverage this season and he held Sanu to 3 catches and 54 yards on the day. Gresham accounted for nearly 50 receiving yards himself, but he has only practiced one day this week and is listed as questionable with a back injury. A.J. Green has been listed as doubtful after suffering a concussion against the Steelers last Sunday night. In Green's absence, Vontae Davis will likely limit Mohamed Sanu once more.
Another defensive tool for the Colts will be Arthur Jones. Jones did not play in the regular season against the Bengals, but he's healthy and active for Sunday. Arthur Jones, a many Ravens fans remember, is a talented, athletic defensive end. Jones' familiarity with playing against the Bengals twice a year as a Baltimore Raven will undoubtedly help the Colts stop Andy Dalton and company. I've heard some analysts on ESPN remark that the emergence of Jeremy Hill should be a big difference-maker against the Colts, but the Colts limited Hill and Giovanni Bernard to a combined total of 32 rushing yards in their last meeting, and that was with a weakened defensive line. It's entirely possible that the Bengals have found better ways to utilize Hill, but it's not as though the Colts didn't see him earlier this season.
Indianapolis may no longer have Ahmad Bradshaw, but the Bengals struggled to stop Trent Richardson 11 weeks ago as well. Richardson rushed for 77 yards, and will likely have plenty of room to run if Andrew Luck gets into a passing rhythm early. There's little reason to think that Luck WON'T find his rhythm early as he'll be playing at home in a dome against the 20th ranked pass defense in the league. The Bengals can pat themselves on the back for beating the Broncos at home, but they faced a struggling Peyton Manning in driving rain, and it's no surprise that the old veteran threw several game-changing interceptions in such sloppy conditions. There will be no weather issues inside Lucas Oil Stadium, and there won't even be wind.
The absence of A.J. Green should be ultimately more decisive in this contest than the absence of Ahmad Bradshaw. In 3 games without Green this season, Andy Dalton has thrown two touchdown passes and 3 interceptions. Dalton threw 2 touchdown passes and no interceptions with Green in the whole game against the Steelers in Week 14, but he threw 2 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions last week in the game in which A.J. Green went down with a concussion. Green gives Dalton a big target to which he can simply throw the ball at and trust that his receiver will make a play. Losing a receiver of that caliber exposes serious accuracy issues Dalton possesses on deep passes. This could be a long day for Red Rocket.
PREDICTION:
The Colts certainly aren't unbeatable, but they're strong enough at home to outscore a Bengals team missing it's most critical receiving weapon. The Colts don't have the best defense in the league, but they do possess a shutdown corner in Vontae Davis. Davis should easily limit Mohamed Sanu, and the Bengals secondary will once again have trouble with the combination of T.Y. Hilton, Reggie Wayne, and Cody Fleener. If this game was in Cincinnati, this might be tougher to predict, but not enough has changed for the better about the Bengals to make me believe they'll be able to go on the road and shut down the league's most productive quarterback. I doubt the Colts will shut the Bengals out again, but Andrew Luck and his team will live to fight another day...and Marvin Lewis might actually lose his job to Hue Jackson. COLTS 24-17
RAVENS AT STEELERS
This is it, the moment we've waited for all week. This is the greatest rivalry in professional sports. The Seahawks-49ers rivalry has cooled off this season, the Yankees-Redsox rivalry meant little in 2014 as both teams went nowhere. The Packers-Bears rivalry was boring and one-sided this season, and the Jets-Patriots rivalry will likely take a step backwards as Rex departs. The Ravens-Steelers rivalry features two teams that both won two Super Bowl victories in the last decade and a half, and each team has won a Super Bowl within the last 6 years. Their games are seldom without controversy, devastating hits, and highlight reel clutch plays to leave one fan base mired in utter depression and another fan base beating its collective chest with pride. From 2008-2010, the Steelers typically had the edge over the Ravens, but from 2011-2013, the Ravens appeared to have the upper hand. Pittsburgh had the last laugh during the 2014 regular season, but these teams still split their games. Between their two regular season contests, the Ravens and Steelers scored and allowed exactly the same number of points. Each team won by a 20 point margin of victory at home, but the Steelers secured a home playoff game by winning the division.
Part of the Steelers' success this year has been their offense which ranked #2 in the NFL in the category of yards from scrimmage. That offense faltered in a handful of confusing moments against bottom-of-the-barrel teams, but it ultimately led them to 11 wins and a division title. The biggest reasons for a resurgence in Steelers offensive production were increased protection of Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown's league-leading receiving yardage total, and the rise of Le'Veon Bell as arguably the best all-purpose weapon in the NFL.
The Steelers are not the only AFC North team with a resurgence in offensive production. The Ravens set a franchise record for points scored in a single season in 2014, and finished the year 8th in the league in points scored per game (the Steelers finished 7th). The Ravens' resurgence in offensive production was due to Gary Kubiak's offensive system, a dramatic improvement in offensive line play, the 1000+ yard receiving production of Steve Smith Sr., and Justin Forsett's career best rushing performance of over 1200 yards with a league-leading 5.4 yards per carry.
Neither the Ravens nor the Steelers will have the full benefit of all of the aforementioned offensive factors for a pair of major reasons. The Steelers will not have Le'Veon Bell this week because of a brutal helmet-to-knee injury from last Sunday's Bengals game. The Ravens, on the other hand, will not have EITHER of the starting offensive tackles, and their right tackle, Rick Wagner, was ranked by Pro Football Focus as the #2 right tackle in the NFL this season. It's nearly impossible to say with certainty which of these factors will prove more critical for these teams, but a thorough look at the numbers should at least give us some semblance of clarity.
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
One factor that can't be evaluated from a statistical standpoint could ultimately play just as large a role in the outcome of tomorrow night's game as missing key personnel. There is a 100% chance of rain in Pittsburgh tomorrow night during the game, and that could make for a sloppy match-up. It could also mean victory for whichever team can run the ball, stop the run, rush the passer and win the turnover battle.
Le'Veon Bell accounted for just under 40% of the Steelers offensive yards in the last 7 weeks of the Steelers' season. Not only was he an elite rusher in the NFL with over 1300 rushing yards, but he was the Steelers' second leading receiver behind Antonio Brown with 854 receiving yards. Losing Bell means losing not only a fantastic receiving target and an elusive runner, but it also means losing an effective pass blocker, and an incredible weapon to set up play-action fakes. As good as Antonio Brown is, he can only catch what is thrown his way. The absence of Bell means the ferocious pack of Ravens pass rushers will be able to come after Roethlisberger with a vicious furor the likes of which has left Ben injured in past games. In other words, when the Steelers lose Le'Veon Bell, they lose the ability to throw the deep ball as effectively. When a team is relegated to short and intermediate passes against this Ravens defense, it finds far less success.
This won't be the first time the Ravens have faced a one-dimensional, pass-heavy offense this season. The Ravens faced the Falcons, Saints, and Chargers in the regular season, and they beat two out of those three. The one of those three teams that beat the Ravens was the Chargers, and they did so in large part by completing some timely deep passes. What made the Chargers different from the Falcons and Saints? The Chargers finished with the 4th ranked pass defense in the league this season, and that helped them limit Joe Flacco to 225 passing yards, as well as achieve a critical stop deep within their own red zone and force the Ravens to kick a field goal rather than punch in the go-ahead touchdown. The Steelers don't have the 4th ranked pass defense in the league. Pittsburgh, in fact, possess the 27th ranked pass defense in the NFL. Joe Flacco actually only threw for 37 less yards (303) than Ben Roethlisberger (340) in the Ravens' 43-23 loss to the Steelers in Week 9. Rain may make both passing attacks wildly unpredictable, but there is little reason to believe that the Steelers have a major advantage over the Ravens in the passing game without Le'Veon Bell's triple-threat presence.
One thing I keep hearing about on national television is the Ravens "vulnerable" pass defense. The Ravens pass defense certainly wasn't worth bragging about in 2014 overall, but few outside of Baltimore seem to have realized that the Ravens secondary has finally turned a corner. In the final month of the 2014 season, the Ravens pass defense held opponents to an average of 173 yards. This number sounds better than it actually is given the list of quarterbacks the Ravens faced during that month, but that group of quarterbacks wasn't totally devoid of talent. Ryan Tannehill was no slouch this season. The young quarterback threw for over 4000 yards and 27 touchdowns. The Ravens got off to a rough start in Miami in Week 14, but they ultimately held Tannehill to 165 passing yards, and totally totally halted a Dolphins offense that put up 36 points on the road against a top ten ranked Broncos defense only two weeks earlier. One major reason for improved secondary performance against Miami was that the Ravens finally found a combination of starting safeties that performed at a reasonable level in Will Hill and Jeromy Miles. The Ravens lost cornerback Asa Jackson towards the end of the Dolphins game, and that led to even more changes to the secondary.
The Ravens pulled a young cornerback named Rashaan Melvin up from the practice squad and signed former Panthers' starter Antoine Cason after Asa Jackson and Danny Gorrer were put on injured reserve. Those additions in combination with the return to form of Lardarius Webb have meant that the Ravens secondary was able to make the likes of Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins into relative non-factors. This is certainly no sort of dream team defensive backfield, but it is greatly improved over that which gave up 6 touchdowns and 340 yards to the Steelers in Week 9. Chykie Brown and Dominique Franks are long gone, and Rashaan Melvin actually looks quite talented. At 6'2" and 195 pounds with 4.42 forty yard dash speed, Rashaan Melvin has the physical tools to defend big-bodied NFL wideouts. With that said, Melvin and the rest of this group will have their hands full with the likes of Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, and Markus Wheaton. The Steelers have absolutely no shortage of wide receivers, and each one can make fantastic plays with his legs once the ball is in his hands.
The Steelers not only had a great deal of success in the passing game last time the Ravens came to town, but they also harassed Joe Flacco and sacked him 4 times. Baltimore's offensive line was fully healthy at the time, and they still struggled to protect Flacco from relatively uncomplicated blitzes off of simple stunts. The Steelers also held the Ravens rushing attack to 63 yards on the day, and a sizable point deficit limited Ravens running backs to 18 rushing attempts. Unfortunately for the Ravens, their offensive line will be without its two starting offensive tackles this week, but fortunately for the Ravens, the Steelers offense will not nearly possess the same firepower to put up points and ultimately run down the clock with a balanced attack late in the game. The Ravens starting left tackle this week, James Hurst, didn't allow a single sack or even a quarterback hurry to his side last week against a Browns team with one of the best pass defenses in the league. Marshal Yanda has some experience playing right tackle, and John Urshel is a capable back-up at right guard. This group is not exactly ideal, but it opened up enough holes for Justin Forsett to rumble for 129 yards last week, and that's the 10th time Forsett has rushed for 120+ yards this season.
PREDICTION:
Calculating the Steelers' record at home and the Ravens record on the road won't mean much for this game. There are too many factors that make stats accumulated by both of the teams over the course of the season totally irrelevant to this particular game. The Steelers offense isn't the same as it was for the entire regular season, the Ravens offensive line isn't the same as it was for nearly the entire regular season, and the Ravens secondary has changed dramatically since these teams last met. The team that wins this game will be the team that can run the ball, stop the run, and rush the passer, and win the turnover battle. The rain could very well keep both offenses grounded, and Todd Haley may resort back to his "dink and dunk" offense that he originally brought with him to Pittsburgh. Steelers fans may not know it yet, but the Ravens have the better of the two secondaries at this point in the season and a MUCH better pass rush, especially without the presence of Le'Veon Bell. If the Steelers can't keep the Ravens off of Big Ben without at least SOME threat of a rushing attack and decent pass protection from running backs, this could get really ugly really quickly. I doubt either team will have the offensive production on a rainy, muddy field that some people might be expecting from two of the league's top scoring offenses. The bottom line is that the Ravens still have the NFL's leading rusher as far as yards per carry are concerned...the Steelers likely won't be able to run the ball effectively. A team that can't run the ball will have a hard time in sloppy weather. In the absence of Bell, the Ravens are the more complete team here. Call me incredibly biased, but I can't see a team without its MVP for the first time this season winning in a playoff slobber-knocker. RAVENS 20-16
THERE'S NOTHING ELSE TO SAY
IT'S DO OR DIE
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!!
No comments:
Post a Comment