The way the Seahawks have been playing in the last seven weeks, it's difficult to imagine any other team going into Seattle and pulling off an upset. The reigning Super Bowl champions have returned to their form of last season, and it's possible their defense may actually be even more impressive at this point. The Seahawks have, after all, allowed opposing teams to score more than 6 points in only two games during that stretch, and they've allowed opposing teams to score more than 7 points only once. What makes those statistics even MORE impressive is the fact that 4 of those 7 games were played on the road, and 4 of the 7 games were also played against tough divisional opponents. There exists only one NFC team that has the potential to beat the Seahawks in Seattle, and that's the one team in the league with a flawless road record this season: the Dallas Cowboys.
The Cowboys faced one of the NFL's top defenses and won in a venue in which they'll never have to play again during this post-season...Dallas. Nearly any other team in the league would prefer to play at home, but the Cowboys have fared dramatically worse at home than on the road this season with a flawless road record but a perplexing .500 home winning percentage. It's rare that a team is stronger on the road, but there is one relatively recent example of another team with a similar pattern. The 2011 New York Giants just barely squeaked into the playoffs with a 9-7 record and proceeded to play and win 4 consecutive road post-season games. This pattern, however, is extremely rare, and it appears to be far more pronounced in this season's Cowboys team. The Giants, after all, won 5 road games in the regular season of 2011, but the Cowboys have won all 8 in 2014. It is for this reason that the Cowboys should consider themselves lucky that they're not the #1 seed.
The Seahawks ARE the NFC's number #1 seed in this post-season, and they're not playing the Cowboys this weekend. The Seahawks play their first game at home against a Panthers team that has built up some confidence in the last 5 weeks with 5 straight wins. The Panthers have experienced a resurgence from both an offensive and defensive standpoint, but they haven't faced any particularly challenging teams during their recent streak. The Seahawks are on a little bit of a streak of their own with 6 straight wins and 9 wins in their last 10 games. During their six game winning streak, however, the Seahawks faced at least somewhat limited competition as well. The last time the Panthers met the Seahawks, as a matter of fact, the Seahawks only narrowly won 13-9. This game may not be the blowout that many are predicting.
Possibly even more difficult to predict than the Panthers-Seahawks game is the Packers-Cowboys match-up on Sunday. I wouldn't ordinarily give any team much chance of beating the Packers in frighteningly cold January Wisconsin weather, but Aaron Rodgers has a torn calf muscle, and his limited mobility could prove pivotal against a team with a flawless road record. Forget your preconceived notions of which teams are the best this season. Careful examination of statistics and personnel brought Purple Nightmare a 4-0 predictions record last weekend, and Purple Nightmare's all-time playoff record now stands at 28-9. We shall continue to enter into the analysis and predictions process without as little prejudice as possible. The most relevant numbers and facts reveal the correct winner in the vast majority of cases--this is not the time to let assumptions and opinions get in the way of what should be an objective, analytical process. With that said, let's take a look at each of these NFC Divisional Round match-ups!
PANTHERS AT SEAHAWKS
These teams are far more similar than they are different despite a sizable disparity in regular season records. The Seahawks finished the regular season with 12 wins, and the Panthers finished with 7, but both teams saw a resurgence in defense in the second half of the season and finished on a winning streak. Neither team has faced incredible competition during their respective winning streaks, but the Seahawks were far more dominant and for a longer period of time.
I can't recall seeing any predictions for a Panthers win this weekend, but I've never been to fond of taking the word of the so-called "experts" considering it appears as though their predictions are little more than mildly educated guesses. I must admit that there are several glaring factors that tip the scales in favor of the Seahawks in my mind even before examining statistics. The numbers, however, could prove my ideas wrong, so let's take a look at the stats in this match-up.
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
As I look over the last 4 opponents the Panthers faced and beat at the end of the regular season, I notice that each of these opponents had an atrocious run defense. The Saints (29th), Buccaneers (19th), Browns (32nd), and the Falcons (21st) allowed the Panthers to rush for an average of 199.25 yards per game. Last week the even Cardinals with their relatively strong run defense (13th) allowed the Panthers to rush for 188 yards, but that rushing total isn't surprising considering just how little time the Cardinals possessed the football. The Panthers won't be facing a team that struggles in run defense on Sunday. The Seahawks ranked 3rd in the league against the run this season, and they'll be fresh off of a bye week's rest.
The second statistical trend I noticed about the Panthers' last 4 opponents of the regular season was that each one either had a lopsidedly one-dimensional offense or simply an incredibly unproductive offense all around. Both the Saints and Falcons had elite passing numbers on the season, but neither managed to establish a running game for any significant stretch of time. The Browns and Buccaneers both had rushing and passing numbers in the bottom third of the league. The Cardinals were the second to last rushing team in the league this season, but their ability to pass the football with success dropped catastrophically with 3rd string quarterback, Ryan Lindley, under center. What does this all mean? The Panthers played offensively flawed and defensively pathetic teams during their current 5 game winning streak.
The Seahawks' only playoff opponent during their current winning streak also happened to be the Arizona Cardinals. Like the Panthers, the Seahawks played the Cardinals once with Ryan Lindley as the starting quarterback, but unlike the Panthers, the Seahawks also played and dominated the Cardinals with Drew Stanton as QB. Also unlike the Panthers, the Seahawks held the Cardinals to an average of 4.5 points per game within their two regular season match-ups. The Panthers may have soundly defeated the Cardinals last weekend, but they still allowed Bruce Arians' crew to put up 16 points in the process.
The Seattle defense looks possibly better in many respects at this point in the season than it did in last year's historically dominant run. The Seahawks traveled to Philly in Week 14 and held the league's 9th ranked rushing offense and the 6th ranked passing offense to only 14 points. The Seahawks also held the 4th ranked rushing offense of the 49ers to an average of 5 points per game in both of their divisional match-ups. Most importantly, the Seahawks went to Arizona and put up a monstrous 596 offensive yards and beat the Cardinals 35-6. That's the same Cardinals team that the Panthers beat 27-16 at home last weekend.
The Panthers have been defensively stout as of late, but they have not faced a single team with an elite rush offense. The Seahawks are the best running football team in the league, and even their quarterback has nearly 900 yards on the ground. None of the teams that the Panthers have beaten down the stretch have been able to run the football or stop the run, and the Seahawks can do both as well or better than anyone else in the league. If the Eagles couldn't score more than a couple of touchdowns against the Seahawks in Philly, and the 49ers couldn't run the ball effectively against the Seahawks in San Francisco, I haven't the faintest idea of how the Panthers will be able to score enough points to win in Seattle.
The Panthers will once again face some serious defensive issues of their own on Saturday. The Panthers starting defensive tackle, Star Lotulelei, will not play against the Seahawks. Lotulelei's absence could mean big gains on the ground for Marshawn Lynch and less pressure for Russell Wilson. Cam Newton will almost certainly have trouble finding open receivers against this Seahawks secondary, and if the Panthers can't find success running the ball early, they may find themselves passing far more than they'd like to in the second half of the game with ball hawks lurking in the defensive backfield.
PREDICTION:
The Seahawks are a lot like the Panthers...the Seahawks are just a much better version. The Panthers have only beaten teams with major shortcomings on offense and defense, and many of their games during their winning streak were disappointingly close for Cam Newton and company. The Seahawks have recently flattened nearly everyone in their path regardless of whether or not they were at home or on the road. I found nothing statistical to support the idea of the Panthers winning this game, and this is easily the most conclusive prediction of the playoffs thus far. SEAHAWKS 31-9 (and 9 may actually be quite generous)
COWBOYS AT PACKERS
There are a great many people who believe Aaron Rodgers is the best player in football. It's difficult to claim ANYONE is the greatest player in football because of the dramatic differences between positions, but Aaron Rodgers has to be in the top 5 anyway. Aaron Rodgers does nearly everything that one would want a quarterback to do, and he does them all incredibly well. Part of what makes Rodgers amazing is his mobility. Rodgers, however, has a torn calf muscle (thanks a lot, Suh), and one has to wonder exactly how mobile he'll be in hellishly cold temperatures in Green bay on Sunday.
Rodgers isn't the only quarterback in this game who has had to deal with injury issues. Tony Romo has had to play a sizable chunk of the second half of the season with broken bones in his back. These injuries clearly haven't affected Romo to the degree that one would assume when they hear someone has a broken back, but I've wondered if it's possible that Tony is simply one hit away from paralysis.
The Cowboys are undefeated on the road, and the Packers are undefeated at home. It's up to us to figure out what the stats say about whether the Cowboys are better on the road than the Packers are at home, and whether or not Rodgers' limited mobility changes the equation. It could be that the Packers' offensive production after Rodgers injury is different enough of that prior to the injury that most of the regular season Packers passing statistics aren't totally relevant to this prediction. Let's take a look.
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
The Cowboys have easily the greatest road offense in the NFL. Their 34.375 points per game on the road is astounding considering some of their opponents including the Seahawks and Eagles. The Cowboys don't have what anyone would consider an elite defense, but they allow far fewer points per game on the road (22.625) than they score.
The Packers score significantly more points per game at home (39.75) than the Cowboys do on the road. The Packers also allow less points per game at home (20.375) than the Cowboys allow on the road. The Packers may not stand a chance of going into Seattle and beating the Seahawks, but they've limited some excellent offenses at Lambeau. Green Bay's defense held the Eagles' high-flying offense to 20 points, and it held the Patriots balanced offense to 21 points at home as well. On the other hand, the Packers did also allow the loser Falcons to put 37 points in Green Bay, and most of those points were scored furiously in the second half. Even the Jets came within a touchdown of the Packers in Green Bay.
The Cowboys have two impressive road performances over top teams this season, and the Packers have two impressive defensive performances at home against two potent offenses. It's truly unclear which holds more weight. I originally assumed the Cowboys had played some cold games on the road outdoors toward the end of the regular season, but the December 14th game against the Eagles in Philly only got down to around 40 degrees, and the December 28th game in Washington D.C. only got as low as 44 degrees. The temperature in Green Bay at the time of kickoff on Sunday will be around 21 degrees, but it will dip into the teens by the beginning of the second half. As good as the Cowboys have been on the road, it's difficult to imagine that they're even close to being acclimated to playing in that kind of climate. As the game wears on, the conditions will get worse and worse for the dome team.
Ok, so we've established that the Packers are stronger on both offense on average at home than the Cowboys are on the road, and we've discovered that the Cowboys haven't been tested by truly cold weather conditions yet. We know that Aaron Rodgers isn't 100% with a partial tear in his calf. Upon reviewing the Packers last game of the regular season wherein Rodgers' injury was worsened by Suh's not-so-graceful attempt at a moonwalk, I discovered that Aaron Rodgers was able to return to the field and be nearly as productive as he had been prior to the injury. What is most impressive is that Rodgers did so against one of the top secondaries in the league. Hell, the Lions BEAT the Packers earlier in the season when Rodgers was healthy, but they did so in Detroit. Aaron Rodgers has had a bye week to treat his injury, but it isn't fully healed yet. The biggest question that remains is which will have a greater impact on the game, Aaron Rodgers' lingering calf injury or the Cowboys' comparative lack of experience playing in extreme cold?
On the one hand, the Cowboys posses an incredible running game, and that bodes well for them on a day where catching a football could be difficult. The Cowboys also possess the 8th ranked run defense in the league, and that could force the Packers to keep the ball in hands of an injured Aaron Rodgers. The Cowboys do not possess a strong pass defense, and Aaron Rodgers could take advantage of that fact. UGH! So many factors and it's nearly impossible to determine which will most likely be the most decisive!
PREDICTION:
I wouldn't be even slightly surprised to be wrong with this prediction, but even starting a quarterback with bum leg, the Packers still engineered a more decisive victory over the Lions than the Cowboys did last week. I can't even begin to understand why the Cowboys would be better on the road than they are at home, but it appears as though the Packers are more offensively productive on average at home and more defensively stingy than the Cowboys are on the road. Factor in temperatures in the teens and the fact that the Packers have limited more potent offenses than the Cowboys at Lambeau, and I think we have arrived at a disappointing end to what had become an exciting storyline for the Cowboys franchise. I really hope I'm wrong about this, because the Cowboys are the only team left that could potentially beat the Seahawks in Seattle. PACKERS 33-28
The NFC may seem like the Seahawks' conference to lose, but I'd like to think that there are at least one or two remaining teams that could take them down. The Seahawks throttled the Packers in Week 1 of the regular season, but these two teams have changed so profoundly since that point that it may be difficult to use it as a predictor for a possible NFC championship match-up next week. This would all be SO very much more interesting if the Packers could have managed to snag the #1 seed. *sigh*
STAY TUNED FOR THE AFC DIVISIONAL ROUND PREDICTIONS!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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