In order to offer a different viewpoint to balance out my unquestioned bias towards the Ravens, my good friend, Jason Farias has written an excellent post from the perspective of both a highly analytical coaching mind, and also a Patriots fan. Enjoy!
This Saturday, the New England Patriots welcome the Baltimore Ravens to the confines of Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts for what surely will be a physical chess match in the divisional round of the AFC playoffs. Fresh off a bye week which was sorely needed for a variety of reasons which I hope to expand upon, Bill Belichick's squad will try to defend its home turf against a Ravens team that has complete confidence in its ability to win this contest. While some analysts will look at Baltimore's playoff history against New England with trepidation, I will attempt to provide insightful analysis as to the key matchups which will ultimately decide which team advances in the playoffs.
After the New England Patriots started the season with a record of 2-2, many media members and Patriots fans alike were seriously doubting New England's mental toughness, level of talent, and even the long-term commitment to Tom Brady. The team was able to turn things around beginning with the Week 5 demolition of the fraudulent Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals. That game was the first in a seven game win streak which included comfortable wins over Denver, Indianapolis, and Detroit. During this seven-game stretch, New England averaged 39.6 points per game. Unfortunately, beginning with the Green Bay game, New England's offense sputtered down the stretch with ugly wins against the Jets and Chargers and a Week 17 loss against the Bills. Congratulations, Buffalo, for finally winning at Gillette Stadium against our back-ups!
Interesting to note regarding the final stretch of the season for New England was the injuries to the team, in particular the offense, which forced lesser players to see the field. Julian Edelman was gimpy for much of the season, and he missed the final two games of the regular season, and Rob Gronkowski was held out of the final game of the season. Dan Connolly, left guard, and Sebastian Vollmer, at right tackle, missed the final two games of the season on the offensive line. Dont'a Hightower at linebacker and Brandon Browner at cornerback, also missed the final game of the season. On offense, Tom Brady was forced to hold onto the football longer due to the inability of receivers to separate, and with an inferior offensive line, he was often pressured and under constant duress. The nadir of offensive futility came in Week 16 versus Rex Ryan's New York Jets. Brady finished that game 23 of 35 passing for 182 yards, one touchdown and one interception.
Aside from improving overall team health, the bye week has also allowed Bill Belichick and the coaching staff to self-scout their own tendencies. More so than any other team in the league, New England does an excellent job of calling plays on both offense and defense which fit the down, distance, and overall situation at hand. With self-scouting, the Patriots can find their tendencies (such as running the ball when Legarrette Blount is in the game) and use this knowledge against opponents by going against the grain. Football teams often break down a team by personnel grouping, down and distance, field location, hash, formation, and many other variables. If a certain situation says Patriots run towards the TE 68% of the time, maybe they use this knowledge and call a play-action pass. Suffice it to say, at this point in the season, there's no point to hold anything back in terms of play-calling.
A key theme to the aforementioned Jets game, as well as many of New England's losses over the past fifteen years of excellence, has been pressure up the middle of the offensive line. Interesting to note with the return of all starters to New England's offensive line is this statistical split: with an offensive line of Solder-Connolly-Stork-Wendell-Vollmer, Brady has been sacked 4 times and he's had a QB rating of 103.6 over an 8 game sample size; with any other offensive line combination, Brady's been sacked 17 times, and his QB rating dips to 89.8 over that same 8 game sample size. The New England offensive line has a daunting task ahead of itself against the Baltimore Ravens' ferocious front seven, which tied for 2nd in the NFL with 49 sacks during the regular season. Baltimore, in addition to the ability to harass opponents on passing downs, is ranked 5th in the league against the run according to Football Outsider's DVOA (Please check their site out as they provide statistical analysis of football on a level similar to that of WAR and OPS for baseball).
The matchup between Baltimore's front seven and New England's offensive line will be pivotal to the outcome of the game. While I'll concede that Baltimore has the edge in this matchup, there are ways for New England to mask this weakness against Baltimore. To understand what New England may do against the Ravens, one needs to look no further than their Week 12 matchup against the Detroit Lions and Ndamukong Suh et al.
In the game against Detroit, New England conceded the run game for the most part, instead relying on their matchups in the passing game. Tom Brady finished that game 38 of 53 for 349 yards and 2 touchdowns with 1 interception. A majority of the damage was done against Detroit's secondary with horizontal stretches which got the ball out of TB12's hands quickly before the pass rush was able to affect him. Brady distributed the ball evenly, with no receiver gaining over 100 yards. Interestingly, since Detroit doubled Rob Gronkowski for a majority of the game, Tim Wright (an H-back type) scored two red zone touchdowns. Also, when Detroit had focused much of its attention on stopping New England's quick game and screen game, Legarrette Blount scored two touchdowns.
Baltimore possesses a formidable defensive line rotation, with Terrell (I'm an Orc from LOTR) Suggs and Elvis Dumervil providing pressure off the edges. These two players will place tremendous stress on Nate Solder and Sebastian Vollmer, respectively. I expect New England to deploy Shane Vereen in the passing game as an outlet in the face of pressure. Additionally, New England could use 6- and 7-man protections when they need to take shots down the field. Personally, I would use running backs, tight ends, and fullback James Devlin, to chip Baltimore's two edge rushers like knats attacking ripened fruit. Not only does Baltimore possess two great edge rushers, but their interior defensive line is equally adept at pressuring quarterbacks. Haloti Ngata is surprisingly effective collapsing the pocket, as is Pernell McPhee, a 6'2” 280 pound hybrid linebacker who sometimes slides inside to defensive tackle. The Ravens add depth with former Florida State Seminole Timmy (Timmay!!) Jernigan.
When passing the football, New England should try to take advantage of Baltimore's ineffectiveness against the TE. Baltimore is ranked 20th in the League according to DVOA against TE's, and although Will Hill has played on his head recently, including shutting down Jimmy Graham of New Orleans, Gronkowski is another animal. Not only is he great in the passing game, particularly the red zone, but he's also, in my biased opinion, the best run blocking TE in the NFL.
Baltimore sports a diminished Ladarius Webb and Some Guy at cornerback, so the back end of the defense is clearly an area the Patriots will try to exploit. Webb was consistently targeted in pass coverage by the Steelers last week, so that clearly shows what other teams across the league think about the secondary's ability to cover for any length of time. While I expect Webb to follow around Julian Edelman, given he's matched up well against Julian and Wes Welker in the past, the other matchups on the outside are enticing. Whomoever Some Guy is covering should see a steady diet of quick passes, screens, and double moves. Baltimore has given up the third worst QBR to opposing quarterbacks on passes that travel 15 or more yards downfield. While the deep ball is clearly not Tom Brady's gravy train, the Patriots should attempt at least one or two play-action max protect shots this game.
Whenever New England does decide to run the football, they will want to be prudent about where and how they go to the ground. Haloti Ngata, back from a 4-game PED suspension, was an absolute beast against the Pittsburgh Steelers. At inside linebacker are Daryl Smith and C.J. Mosley, the latter of which is in consideration for Defensive Rookie of the Year. While Baltimore often uses Courtney Upshaw as an edge-setting Sam linebacker in running situations, New England could take advantage of Elvis Dumervil's small 6'0” 250 pound frame in the running game. I would expect New England to use 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends) with Michael Hoomanawanui at the traditional Y spot to block at the point of attack, and Rob Gronkowski as the H-back/Flex position. Hoo-Man also could stay in for pass-protection purposes.
I expect New England to deploy the no-huddle offense more often than they usually have this 2014 season, as it's proven to be an effective tool against the Ravens in the past. The no-huddle can slow down the pass rush, tire out defensive linemen, and take advantage of personnel matchups whenever New England feels the Ravens don't have the proper defenders on the field. The Patriots must be judicial about how much they go no-huddle, however, as I feel Baltimore's best strategy for winning this game is controlling the clock and winning the field position game, thus decreasing New England's offensive opportunities.
I will be completely honest about this: New England's defense this 2014-2015 season is the best defense they've had since the 2003 and 2004 seasons when the likes of Ty Law and Rodney Harrison were patrolling the secondary while Tedy Bruschi and Richard Seymour anchored the front seven.
On the defensive line, Vince Wilfork and Alan Branch form 700 pounds of immovable object at defensive tackle, and their job is often to use two-gap techniques, thus keeping linemen from getting to the linebackers. Their success could prove pivotal to this game, as I expect Baltimore to try to establish the run with Offensive Coordinator Gary Kubiak's zone blocking scheme. Damian Easley could have an increased role this week, as his ability to explode off the ball and penetrate gaps is the type of destruction which plagues the zone running game. At defensive end for the Patriots are Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich. These players have to face the challenge of setting the edge against Kubiak's zone blocking scheme or else Justin Forsett and the other Ravens backs will be able to bust runs to the outside for long games.
Chandler Jones, who has recorded 1.5 sacks in two games since returning from a hip injury which cost him 6 games, will look to get pressure on Joe Flacco. Whether Eugene Monroe is able to return to the lineup at left tackle after missing a few weeks with injury is unknown at this point; however, New England should try to take advantage of the rusty and possibly hobbled Monroe or their current replacement, James Hurst. Hurst allowed six quarterback hurries against Pittsburgh. On the other side of the offensive line, the Ravens have moved All-Pro guard Marshal Yanda to right tackle to alleviate pressure issues on that side of the ball. Look for New England to deploy multiple A-gap pressures, especially from the versatile Collins, to confuse and overwhelm Baltimore's interior line. The rookie defensive tackle Damian Easley should see more playing time on passing downs give Baltimore's reliance on 5- and 7-step drops which are simple too deep for Air Vince Wilfork to be effective.
Football is a game of match-ups, and New England's secondary against Baltimore's receivers is an interesting one. Darrell Revis, back to his All-Pro form, will most likely be matched up against Steve Smith Sr. In three prior games against the 35-year old wideout, Revis has given up two completions for 21 yards. Brandon Browner, at 6'4”, may not be the best match-up against Torrey Smith on the other side, as the former Maryland Terrapin's small frame and explosive nature could prove troublesome. Torrey Smith leads the league in pass interference calls, and Browner isn't exactly a saint out there. I do expect the Patriots to match Browner on Jacoby Jones whenever he's in the game, though. As for Torrey Smith, expect a nickle cornerback such as Logan Ryan to be on the Terp, with over-the-top help from free safety Devin McCourty.
New England's achilles heal on defense is defending the tight end. Opponents have been tearing the Patriots up, as New England is ranked 30th according to Football Outsider's DVOA against the tight end. The natural choice would be to match Patrick Chung against Baltimore's Owen Daniels in man coverage and use linebackers Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower in zone coverage. If this doesn't work, I could see New England assign Brandon Browner or even Devin McCourty to stop the Baltimore's TE's.
If New England can stop the running game without committing too many defenders to the box, they should have a variety of options in terms of scheme. While the Patriots have been playing the Cover 1 Lock scheme which everyone credits to Seattle for the past five years, I wouldn't be surprised to see them play a lot more of Cover 2 Match. While Cover 1 Lock would allow for strong safety Patrick Chung to rotate down as a robber player and give the inside linebackers the ability to drop into zones to take away seam passes and crossers, the safer bet to avoid the big play is Cover 2 Match. Cover 2 Match relies on pattern recognition and great communication by the defensive backs, so I'm sure defensive coordinator Matt Patricia has spent many hours in the film room with the defensive backs this week. Whenever New England decides to stay in a 2-deep safety shell, I wouldn't be surprised if Duron Harmon sees action at safety as opposed to the less fluid Chung. Regardless of scheme, expect New England's defensive backs to be physical at the line of scrimmage to throw off the timing of Baltimore's passing game.
Both the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens have strong special teams units, with New England ranked 5th according to DVOA, and Baltimore slightly superior at 2nd in the league. Baltimore is excellent at punt coverage, Justin Tucker is near-automatic at field goals, and Jacoby Jones is always a threat to house call a kickoff if given the chance. If either team could make a big play in special teams, that could be a huge swing in the final outcome of the game. There's a reason my high school football coach always wrote “KDO” on the top of our scouting reports each week, as that's how the game is won. Kicking game provides big plays, defense stops big plays, and the offense has to score enough points to win.
I have been worried all week about this matchup from a Patriots perspective, as I'd rather face any other team left in the playoffs, including Seattle. As the week has gone along, however, I've become more and more confident in New England's ability to be victorious this Saturday. While John Harbaugh is a GREAT coach and his teams are always disciplined and they play smart, Bill Belichick is my idol for a reason. The Patriots' coach always has his teams ready to play, and I expect he spent this week telling his team exactly what they need to do to win and exactly what they can't do in order to prevent defeat. With two strong defenses, I expect a low scoring game, but in the end, I feel the New England Patriots will prevail over the Baltimore Ravens, 27-17.
**Jason Farias is the Head Coach of the Cottbus Crayfish, a men's American football team in Germany. He has previously served as offensive coordinator at Cambridge Rindge & Latin High School as well as with the Reus Imperials in Spain. Before this, he coached defensive line and special teams for the Boston Militia, a women's pro football team, and he was a position coach for Marshfield High School. When not coaching, Jason enjoyed reading about football, talking about football, and dreaming about football.
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