This wasn't the championship lineup for I had hoped for after the first round of the playoffs. I obviously wished the Ravens were playing on Sunday, but that's not even the issue. The biggest problem is that the teams that had the greatest chance of upsetting the two #1 seeds have both been knocked out of the playoffs. It's not that the Packers and Colts have no shot at winning these two games, but the Ravens and Cowboys had demonstrated more recently the ability to match up better with the Patriots and Seahawks respectively. The fact is that both the Colts and Packers have already lost convincingly to their upcoming opponents, and both will face those opponents on the road this weekend.
I'd like to believe that there are new factors that could change the dynamic of either of these two games. Maybe the Seahawks have demonstrated some sort of weakness not seen in Week 1, or maybe the Colts have found some sort of new offensive groove or defensive spark to suggest they'll have more success in Foxborough this time around. Sadly, the Packers may actually be significantly weaker than they were in their Week 1 blowout loss in Seattle, and the Seahawks appear dramatically stronger than in the first half of the season. The Colts may have looked great against Bengals and Broncos, but those wins were as much about major personnel issues for Cincinnati and Denver as they were about high level play from Indy.
I typically enter the writing process before having made a definite decision on a prediction. I began writing this post after having spent the entire week trying desperately to figure out scenarios where either favored home team could potentially be upset. It's certainly possible that either or both home teams could lose this weekend, but there are rather convincing reasons to believe that we'll see two #1 seeds in the Super Bowl for the second straight year. Let's briefly go over those reasons...it won't take long.
COLTS AT PATRIOTS- The Colts lost to the Patriots in Week 11 by a score of 42-20. The Colts aren't a good road team, but the Colts lost to the Patriots by 22 points IN Indianapolis. The Patriots have something now that they didn't have for most of there regular season, and that is a healthy offensive line. The health of that offensive line is a major reason the Ravens were unable to get pressure up the middle on Tom Brady. The Ravens had arguably the league's most ferocious pass rush...the Colts? Yeah, not so much. The beauty of the Patriots this season is their offense's ability to adapt to its opponent. Against the Ravens, for example, the Patriots knew quite well they wouldn't be able to run the football--so they didn't. They, instead, passed nearly 60 times and let a host of receiving weapons embarrass the Ravens pass defense. The Colts finished the season with a more highly ranked pass defense than the Ravens, but the most important part of that pass defense, Vontae Davis, is questionable and won't be playing at 100%. Even if Davis WAS at 100%, I doubt that it would matter. Davis can take away one of the Patriots receivers, but taking away a single receiver means next to nothing against a team with an arsenal of weapons. A healthy Vontae Davis meant very little when the Colts faced the Patriots in Indy, it'll mean even less in frigid Foxborough. The Patriots, by contrast, will put Darrelle Revis on the biggest weapon the Colts have, T.Y. Hilton. The Colts don't have a rushing attack to help open things up for their passing game. They won't even have their leading rusher, Trent Richardson.
If the Colts are going to win this game, they'll have to do so on some sort of career-defining performance from Andrew Luck. The Patriots are too strong offensively, too strong at home, and just strong enough defensively to make this just as lopsided a victory as that in Week 11. If the Patriots were going to lose prior to the Super Bowl, it would've been at the hands of the Ravens. The Ravens ultimately fell short in a valiant attempt to once again walk out of Foxborough victorious in the playoffs, and that win almost certainly guaranteed the Patriots another trip to the Super Bowl. No surprises here, but the Super Bowl should be a much more interesting matchup anyway.
PATRIOTS 35-17
PACKERS AT SEAHAWKS- There was nothing about the Seahawks through the first 6 weeks of the 2014 regular season that made me think they'd repeat as champions. I figured that there was no way the 3-3 Seahawks would finish the season as a #1 playoff seed, and if they didn't have home field advantage, how could they possibly hope to make it back to the Super Bowl? Well, the Seahawks certainly reminded me that it matters not how a regular season begins--it only matters how it finishes. The Seahawks haven't lost a game in 7 weeks. The Seahawks have also looked far more defensively dominant during their current winning streak than they did during last year's defensively dominant regular season and post-season. The Packers certainly picked up steam during the regular season after their own rough start, but an untimely torn calf muscle on one of Aaron Rodgers' legs has meant a far less potent offense during this post-season. The only way the Packers could've possibly beaten the Seahawks in the playoffs is if they had secured home field advantage through the playoffs with a fully healthy Aaron Rodgers.
The Packers will have neither home field advantage nor a healthy Aaron Rodgers, and they don't have a defense that matches up well with the strongest rushing offense in the NFL. The Packers defense ranked 23rd against the run this season, and their offense barely put up enough points to beat the Cowboys in Green Bay last week. The Seahawks rank 1st in the NFL is pass defense yet again, and they should have little trouble covering the Packers receivers given Rodgers' limited ability to use his legs to extend plays. As for Eddie Lacy, I love the way he plays, but he won't be enough to make up for Rodgers' limited mobility considering the Seahawks ALSO possess the league's 3rd ranked run defense. There is little reason to suggest the ultimate outcome of this game will be any different than that of Week 1. It's entirely possible that the Seahawks could make this a historical disappointment. It's also entirely possible that the Pro Bowl will be more entertaining than watching a gimpy Aaron Rodgers get totally shut down by the Legion of Boom. I can only hope the Patriots put up a better fight in two weeks.
SEAHAWKS 28-13
These aren't the match-ups I wanted to see this weekend. I'll be thrilled if either underdog pulls an upset, but I don't think either team has more than a 25% chance at making that happen. The best thing I can realistically hope for is a much more competitive pair of games than I've predicted.
I would be remiss if I didn't speak about our beloved Ravens. Gary Kubiak's possible departure isn't exactly a surprise. We all considered the possibility of Kubiak being one-and-done if he turned around the Ravens offense in 2014. Kubiak did, however, give Ravens fans and the Ravens staff false hope with his proclamation that he wasn't going to leave the Ravens for an head coaching offer...because that simply wasn't true. I'm not angry at Kubiak as he has the right to pursue any option put in front of him, but I do question his desire to go to Denver. I understand Kubiak's tight relationship with John Elway and his history with the Broncos organization are both likely the biggest reasons he's going back on his word. John Elway, however, doesn't play football for the Broncos anymore.
Peyton Manning took the Broncos to a Super Bowl last season and lost in embarrassing fashion. Peyton Manning couldn't even win a single playoff game this season after his absolutely loaded team helped him win 12 regular season games. Manning's body is falling apart at this point. He could rehabilitate in the off-season and possibly come back in good form next fall, but that form will likely last for a short period time than it did THIS season. Brett Favre in his second to last season, but his body hit a wall the following year. It was heartbreaking to watch a once-mighty Favre look like a punch-drunk 65 year-old former boxer. Manning hasn't taken nearly the same number of hits as Favre did in his career, but he could finish in nearly the same embarrassing fashion. Careers in the NFL don't typically follow the gradual decline one sees in major league baseball or professional basketball. It's not uncommon in football for an athlete to perform reasonably well less than a year before their physical abilities fall off a metaphorical cliff.
What does Mannings declining health mean for Gary Kubiak? Well Gary Kubiak's system requires a quarterback athletic enough to roll out of the pocket and laugh passes deep down-field. Joe Flacco isn't Michael Vick, but he's healthy and athletic enough to do both of those things. Manning's nerve impingement means he'll never possess the arm he once used to light up this league. Beyond that, Manning has seldom ever been a successful post-season performer. After last week's loss, Peyton Manning's career post-season record falls to 11-13. In 16 full seasons in the NFL, Manning has won a single post-season game more than Flacco, but he's lost 8 more than Joe. If Kubiak truly believes he'll be able to obtain his first Super Bowl ring as a head coach by going to Denver, he is only kidding himself. Manning doesn't want or need Kubiak's system. Manning runs his own offense, and he has made a lot of offensive coordinators and quarterbacks coaches look like geniuses to those who haven't known better. No, Manning doesn't need or want Kubiak's system--Manning needs his youth and health back.
If Gary Kubiak ignores the fact that Joe Flacco thrived in his system (especially in the playoffs), and if he ignores the fact that Joe Flacco is one of the two best playoff quarterbacks currently in the league, then he's a bigger fool than I thought. I don't think Kubiak is a fool. I, instead, believe Kubiak's decision to go to Denver has more to do with helping out a friend and a city he loves...even if he knows full well that help will likely be in vain. The Broncos have a dire salary cap situation for next season as they mortgaged their future in a desperate attempt to acquire the big name free agents they thought were necessary to win a Super Bowl in the twilight of Peyton Manning's career. The funny thing about Gary Kubiak is that he never displayed the chops as a head coach to steer even a highly talented Texans team through the playoffs. He's arguably one of the best offensive coordinators in football history with three Super Bowl victories as an OC on two different teams. The Ravens knew quite well what Gary Kubiak could offer their team from an offensive standpoint, they didn't have delusions that he'd be any sort of upgrade at head coach.
Kubiak's potential departure could mean a setback for the Ravens offense, but it may not mean that at all. Kubiak's system is absolutely in place in Baltimore, and the Ravens could install a Kubiak disciple such as Kyle Shannahan to simply continue running it. The Ravens have dealt with plenty of turnover at the offensive coordinator position in the past, but this time they'll be left with a system in place that will almost certainly promote success for the foreseeable future.
LET'S HOPE THIS SUNDAY IS MORE INTERESTING THAN I'M PREDICTING AND AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!! (GET ED REED TO BE THE NEW DEFENSIVE BACKS COACH!!!)
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