It seems downright unfair just how long the Patriots have been able to remain dominant. Whether they win or lose Super Bowl 52, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will have made more Super Bowl appearances and won more Lombardi trophies than all but a handful of franchises. What might seem even more frustrating to fans of other teams is the fact that the Brady-Belichick duo appears to have at least one more season left in the tank following Sunday's rematch of the 2004 Super Bowl.
The Eagles are an entirely different team than the one that last took the field on a Super Bowl Sunday. Donovan McNabb has long since retired, and Andy Reid has found his way to Kansas City to turn the Chiefs into a playoff team. Nearly all the players currently in the league were teenagers or children when the Patriots and Eagles last squared off for a title, and yet here's Tom Brady dominating against an entirely new generation of athletes.
As historically dominant as the Patriots have been, they're not invincible--it just often seems that way. Like any other team in the league, the Patriots have won games this season by razor thin margins and have even been beaten on occasion. The Patriots even tend to struggle at the beginning of the regular season as they rotate through players (except Tom Brady) with a fairly high degree of frequency, and it takes them time to get new pieces to fit into a tried and true system.
Not only do the Eagles have a different quarterback than they had in 2004, but they have a different quarterback than they had through the first 14 weeks of this season. It's highly likely that the Eagles wouldn't have had nearly the same record with Nick Foles as their starting quarterback for the entirety of the 2017 regular season, but Foles has, nevertheless, proven himself worth of the playoffs by doing just enough to beat the Falcons, and putting on a clinic against a Vikings defense that spent nearly all of this season suffocating opposing offenses. Foles may not be Carson Wentz, but maybe he doesn't have to be Wentz to get the job done. After all, Tom Brady was a backup once too...
I haven't run into many people who have expressed the belief that either one of these teams will win in a blowout. Both the Patriots and Eagles produced defenses that allowed some of the fewest points in the league this season, and the last two Super Bowls the Patriots won were impossibly close. Who could forget last season when the Patriots won despite literally never leading during regulation, and equally unforgettable was New England's goal line stand against the Seahawks two years earlier to shock everyone who assumed Marshawn Lynch would simply rumble for one triumphant yard to secure Seattle's second Super Bowl win in a row. As dominant as the Patriots have been, they don't tend to dominate their opponents in the big game, and that's what will hopefully make 52 nearly, if not equally, exciting!
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
Both the Eagles and Patriots faced elite defenses in their respective conference championship games two weeks ago. The Patriots found a way to score on the vaunted Jaguars defense after going down 14-0 early on, Tom Brady hit Danny Amendola for the go-ahead score with only a few minutes left in the forth quarter. The Eagles, meanwhile, absolutely embarrassed a Vikings defense that wasn't used to being embarrassed. One might conclude that the Eagles have a greater degree of momentum coming into this game given the way they trounced their last opponent. After all, the Steelers put up a whopping 42 points on that same Jaguars defense only one week earlier. One thing to remember, however, is that the Patriots found a way to move the football on that Jaguars defense without significant use of Rob Gronkowski as he was taken out of the game with a brutal helmet to helmet hit early on.
Rob Gronkowski accounted for 23.6 percent of Tom Brady's passing yards this season and 25% of Brady's passing touchdowns. Gronk is also an excellent blocker, and even when he's not receiving the football, he's consistently commands double teams, thus, helping to open things up for New England's other offensive weapons. The last time the Patriots played without Gronk before the playoffs, they lost to the Miami Dolphins 27-20. Suffice it to say that the fact that the Patriots were able to find a way to move the football through the air against the team with the league's most dominant corner tandem means they'll be that much better when Brady's biggest target returns.
The Philadelphia Eagles were able to stifle and stonewall some pretty elite weapons when they beat the Falcons three weeks ago. With only the 17th ranked pass defense over the course of the regular season, I didn't believe the Eagles would be able to cover the likes of Mohammed Sanu and the great Julio Jones. Lo and behold, the Eagles defensive line was able to consistently pressure Matt Ryan enough to throw him off his game, and Philly even stopped the Falcons from scoring from inside the 2 yard line to seal the win. What shouldn't have been ignored was the Eagles' 13.375 points allowed per game at home during the regular season. The Eagles, however, won't be playing at home this weekend.
Philadelphia's defense performed quite differently on the road in 2017. They allowed an average of 23.5 points per away game, and allowed some extremely weak teams to play them closely as a result. The Patriots allowed a surprisingly high 21.875 points per game in Foxborough during the 2017 regular season, but they allowed a far more impressive 16.125 points per game on the road. Seldom do we see defenses perform better on the road than at home, but somehow that's exactly what happened for New England this season. That isn't to say New England's defense performs badly at home as it just held the Titans to 14 points in a divisional round rout and held the Jaguars to 20 points only a week after the Jags rumbled through Pittsburgh for 45 points largely on the legs of Leonard Fournette. What's equally astonishing is the fact that the Patriots road offense was nearly as good as their offense was at home. On the road, the Patriots scored and average 27.875 points per game, and at home they averaged 29.375 points per game. That means that the Patriots' average margin of victory on the road was 11.75 points, and that's over 4 points higher than their 7.5 point average margin of victory at home.
New England's only road defeat this season was the aforementioned loss to the Dolphins without Gronk who was, at the time, serving a suspension for a dirty hit on a Bills player the week before. A team that can go 7-1 on the road, more specifically 7-0 with their current available personnel, should be incredibly dangerous in a game held on a neutral field. As highly touted as the Vikings defense was this season, it allowed a significantly greater number of points per game on the road than that of the Patriots, and it was for that reason that I predicted an Eagles win in the NFC Championship. A defense that travels well is a defense built for the post-season.
To correctly assess the Eagles' chances of slowing down Brady and company, we'll have to examine how the Eagles fared outside of Philly against pass-heavy teams. The Patriots did finish 10th in rushing yards this season, but it's safe to say that they'll respect the run-stuffing ability of the Eagles' league-leading run defense, and choose to instead attack Philly's secondary. Philadelphia ranked a modest 17th in the league in pass defense this season, and because of this, they allowed teams such top 10 passing teams as the Chargers and Rams to put up significant offensive yards in road games. The Chargers were 0-4 when Philip Rivers threw for 347 yards and two touchdowns in a narrow 26-24 loss in San Diego to a Carson Wentz-led Eagles team. Eli Manning had easily the worst season of his career in 2017, but he threw for 434 yards and 3 touchdowns when the Eagles visited the Meadowlands in Week 15. The Eagles generally held their own defensively at home, but even awful teams were capable of racking up monster passing yards against them away from South Philly.
That isn't to say that the Patriots won't run the football, but they will likely look to establish a passing rhythm to help open up running lanes for the likes of Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead. The Patriots, meanwhile, typically eviscerated teams with pass defenses in the bottom half of the league--even in road games. The Pats beat the Bills 23-3 in Buffalo, and the Bills pass defense is was ranked 20th in the league. Brady threw for 447 passing yards and 3 touchdowns as the Patriots soundly defeated the Saints in New Orleans 36-20. The scary thing is that the Patriots even put up serious passing yards on teams with highly ranked pass defenses to such as the Broncos and Steelers.
PREDICTION
So what does this all mean? Well the Eagles ranked 3rd in points scored and 4th in points allowed this season, while the Patriots ranked 2nd in points score and 5th in points allowed this season. The difference is that only the Patriots defense traveled well. The fact that the Eagles allowed an average of nearly 11 more points on the road than at home is just too great a statistic to ignore, and their pass defense on the road was exposed by bottom-feeding teams even if the Eagles ended up finding a way to win. The fact that the Patriots defense allowed less points per game on the road than at home this year and the team experienced a greater margin of victory away from Foxborough means their success doesn't depend on a home crowd, a lack of travel, or environmental familiarity. Rob Gronkowski's presence will do wonders to take pressure off of the Patriots' other weapons, give Brady more time to throw, and help to open up holes for running backs. Gronk is a nearly uncoverable red-zone target, and only an injury tends to reduce his effectiveness. It would certainly be nice to see a franchise win its first ring, but nothing about the Eagles' road record this season suggests that Nick Foles can out-duel history's most successful playoff quarterback.
PATRIOTS 31-23
I CAN'T SAY I HAVE A DOG IN THIS FIGHT, BUT LET'S HOPE FOR AN EXCITING GAME! STAY TUNED FOR A POST-COMBINE FIRST INSTALLMENT OF THE RAVENS DRAFT WISHLIST, AND HATS OFF TO RAY LEWIS FOR REACHING FOOTBALL IMMORTALITY IN CANTON!!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS! (GO TRADE UP IN THE SECOND ROUND TO DRAFT D.J. MOORE!!)
Sunday, February 4, 2018
Sunday, January 21, 2018
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Eagles and Vikings have proven startlingly similar this season. Both teams finished with conference-leading 13-3 records, and more impressively, both teams have made it all the way to the NFC Championship with with backup quarterbacks. If someone had told me before the season that three of the last four quarterbacks left in the NFL playoffs would be Case Keenum, Nick Foles, and Blake Bortles, I would have fought through uncontrollable laughter to tell them they would be disappointed with reality--aaaand yet here we are.
No matter how the rules have changed, and no matter how many times people insist that this is a "quarterback driven league", teams with ferocious defenses and strong rushing attacks continue to find success in the post season. Teams such as the Seahawks, the Broncos, and now Vikings and Eagles demonstrate that while elite quarterbacks have won a good number of Super Bowls, an elite quarterback is nowhere near required to get there and win. The issue is that contracts for top free agent quarterbacks have gotten so out of control that teams struggle to surround those quarterbacks with enough talent to get to or through a post-season. Instead, teams with talented young quarterbacks still on a rookie contract or a solid journeyman quarterback find themselves able to accrue enough talent at other positions to enjoy a 3-4 year window within which to make a serious run at a Lombardi trophy.
Here in Baltimore we are quite familiar with the competitive opportunity of that rookie contract window, and unfortunately, just as familiar with the crippling lasting effects of a major quarterback contract. While I have no intention of turning this into a Joe Flacco bashing session, I marvel at just how frequently the "you need to have a franchise quarterback" idea proves untrue. That isn't to say a team shouldn't have a talented, effective gunslinger, but NFL franchises need to start considering the idea that they shouldn't overpay just because the market dictates it at that particular moment. Teams must, instead, offer quarterback contracts based on fair and accurate evaluations of talent and track record--and if a quarterback chooses to go to another team that can afford to overpay them, they shouldn't fear moving forward with someone else. One might point to Tom Brady to offer proof to the contrary, but he is actually the perfect example of exactly the trend I'm describing. Brady won three Super Bowls in his youth window, and then after being paid as an elite quarterback, his team went a full decade before winning again. When they DID win again, it was because Brady signed a cap-friendly deal that allowed his team to sign key, defensive free agents such as Darrelle Revis. Brady, for example, has a salary cap hit that is nearly 11 million dollars lower than Joe Flacco's this season, but I digress. Suffice it to say that people simply shouldn't be surprised that three out of the four teams playing today will be starting quarterbacks that come nowhere near entering the "elite" debate.
The Eagles and Vikings are two seemingly evenly matched teams. Both feature elite defenses; the Eagles finish the season ranked 4th in both yards and points allowed, and the Vikings finished the season proudly ranked 1st in both categories. Philadelphia's offense finished the season ranked 7th while the Vikings finished the season ranked 11th, but it should be noted that Philly's ranking would likely be at least a few notches lower on the list had Carson Wentz not been the starter for most of the regular season. The Vikings ranked 7th in the league this season in rushing, and the Eagles ranked 3rd. Minnesota, on the other hand, ranked 11th in the league in passing yards per game, while the Eagles ranked 13th. The Eagles are nearly undefeated at home this season, and the Vikings went 6-2 on the road. The Vikings' only road losses came against the Steelers right after losing their starting quarterback, and then against the Panthers in a close-fought late season battle. As evenly matched as these teams appear to be, before we formulate an opinion on which will win today, we must examine exactly how good the Eagles have been on the road and how good the Vikings have been on the road.
The Vikings defense is unquestionably dominant, but it was significantly less dominant on the road. Minnesota allowed opponents to score a mere 12.5 points per game at home this season, but that number rose to 19 points per game on the road. Even more telling were the road games wherein the Vikings gave up a startling number of points such as their 26 points given up to the Steelers, 30 points given up to the Redskins, and 31 points given up to the Panthers. The Vikings defense also allowed the Saints to mount a furious late comeback that almost spoiled Minnesota's playoff run. Were it not for an epic defensive collapse by the Saints in the waning seconds of the game, we might be discussing the possibility of an epic showdown between Drew Brees and Tom Brady. The Vikings offense prevailed in miraculous fashion, but it has become clear that this Vikings defense, despite its top ranking, is not impervious and certainly not on par with the historically great defenses of the Super Bowl era.
The Eagles defense allowed 18.4 points per game on the season, but that number dropped to an extremely stingy 13.375 in home games. More telling than the regular season statistics, however, was just how well the Eagles limited a star-studded Falcons offense last weekend. Not only did the Eagles hold the Falcons to 10 points, they stopped Matt Ryan and company from getting into the endzone from the 2 yard line at the end of the game. The Eagles, in fact, haven't allowed a touchdown in the final two minutes of any game this season. The Eagles defense held Matt Ryan to 210 ten yards and a single touchdown. If they can match up well with the likes of Julio Jones and Mohammed Sanu, they should have little trouble with Adam Thielen and Stephon Diggs.
Speaking of Adam Thielen, it was reported this week that Thielen will suit up today, but he has multiple fractures in his back and was limited in practice all week. This may very well prove a deciding factor in this game. The Eagles will also have the services of Sidney Jones, the highly touted but previously injured draft pick who has suddenly returned to health and practice. I don't wish to diminish the surprisingly impressive year that Case Keenum has enjoyed, but it's difficult to imagine he has the talent and offensive weapons to put up points on a defense that just held the Falcons to 10 points--but how has the Vikings offense performed on the road this season anyway?
The Vikings offense averaged 23 points per game on the road this season, which is only 4 points more than they allowed on average. A 23 point performance, though, may just be enough to win this game. The Eagles offense has performed well enough to win games following the loss of Carson Wentz, but the production has fallen off a cliff--especially against quality teams. The season-ending loss to the Cowboys shouldn't be counted statistically as the Eagles sat their starters, but against the Raiders the week earlier and then last week against Falcons, the Eagles offense looked startlingly weak compared to before Wentz went down.
Facts and statistics usually tend to point me towards one team or another by this point in my analysis, but this is simply one of the toughest matchups to predict I've encountered over the life of Purple Nightmare. The Eagles offense isn't great, but it appears as though the Vikings are banged up enough at this point that they'll struggle to consistently move the ball against an Eagles defense that has been sensational at home. Adam Thielen's back injury won't keep him out of the game, but it's difficult to think he'll be anywhere near 100% with broken bones in his back. The Eagles defensive line looked utterly ferocious both stopping the run and rushing the passer last week, and Case Keenum isn't nearly as athletic as Matt Ryan. The Eagles showed that they could score in clutch moments against a formidable Falcons defense that traveled extremely well all year, and they should find key moments where they'll be able to mount drives against a Vikings defense that struggled at home last week to stop the Saints once Xavier Rhodes got hurt and was forced to leave the game. This should be an absolute defensive sluggfest, but the Vikings defense simply hasn't traveled well enough this season to give me confidence they'll come out on top today.
PREDICTION: EAGLES 19-16
LET'S HOPE FOR SOME GREAT FOOTBALL TODAY AND STAY TUNED NEXT WEEK FOR A PRE-COMBINE DRAFT WISHLIST INSTALLMENT!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!
Saturday, January 20, 2018
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense, as predicted, did not shut down the Steelers offense. It allowed a whopping 42 points, and looked tired for much of the second half. That defense did, nevertheless, do enough in the first half of the game to slow the Steelers down juuust enough to give their offense an edge in the waning minutes of the game. The Jaguars offense, however, was the true difference maker, as it completed drive after drive at pivotal moments.
Scoring 45 points against a quality team on the road and in the playoffs is no easy feat. The question is whether that points total had more to do with the Steelers' run-stopping deficiencies following the loss of Ryan Shazier, or whether it was the result of the Jaguars elevating their level of play. Given the fact that the Bills held the Jags to 10 points a week earlier, I have to conclude that Jacksonville's offensive production was due largely to the Steelers' lack of talent and depth at the middle linebacker position.
So who then are the Jaguars? Are they the team that put up 45 points in Pittsburgh, or are they the team that put up 10 points in Buffalo a week earlier? The Jaguars' record in the three weeks leading up to the Steelers game would suggest the latter. When going up quality teams, the Jags stumbled. They allowed a 5-win 49ers team to put a whopping 44 points and what had previously been regarded as the NFL's top defensive unit. They lost to a Titans team that was just absolutely blasted by the Patriots last week, and then, as previously mentioned, they barely squeaked by the Buffalo Bills. The Jaguars are not predictably dominant. They're capable of putting up a dominant performance when they force a ton of turnovers, but they don't typically stonewall a decent offense. They, like the Ravens, put up dominant defensive performances against bad teams, and occasionally force a good team into turning over the ball enough times to tip the scales in their favor.
The Patriots experienced a pair of hiccups early in the season with their Week 1 42-27 loss to the Chiefs and their 33-30 loss to the Panthers in Week 4. Since then, however, they have almost never faltered--even against playoff contenders. After starting the season 2-2, the Brady and company won 11 of their next 12 games to finish 13-3 with the top seed in the AFC going into the playoffs. The Pats also put up 5 strong wins over playoff teams, which is more than all the other teams that reached the post season with the exception of the Vikings.
As one looks at the Patriots' defensive statistics, one thing stands out as odd: the Patriots ranked 30th in passing yards allowed, 20th in rushing yards allowed, but they ranked 4th in the league in points allowed per game. I expected to see that the Patriots had consistently forced many turnovers this season, but they had just over half as many as the Ravens. It turns out that a large part of what made the Patriots defense effective despite allowing a sizable total of yards on the season was their redzone defense. The Patriots redzone defense ranked 5th in the league--just behind Jacksonville. The Patriots allowed touchdowns scored in just 44% of opponents' trips to the redzone at home this season. Pittsburgh, by contrast, allowed touchdowns scored during trips in the redzone a whopping 91% of the time in home games this season. It should, therefore, come as no surprise that the Steelers struggled so hard to keep the Jaguars from scoring in critical situations. Over the last 3 games, however, the Jaguars ranked a dismal 23rd in the league in redzone defense, and it shouldn't come as any surprise that they also allowed the Steelers to score basically at will in the second half of the game.
The Patriots defense has clearly received a major boost from the acquisition of a rested James Harrison. Harrison is not elite at his position anymore, but he is a clear upgrade over what the Patriots had, and the fact that he's played an incredibly limited number snaps in 2017 means his body isn't as beaten down as starters who have played 14-16 games this season. There's no question that New England's offensive consistency helps to give its defense a major break. The Patriots lead the league in first downs per game, and that helps them win the time of possession battle and keep their own defense off the field. One typically doesn't think of the Patriots as a strong rushing team, but they ranked 10th in the league this year with nearly 1900 rushing yards, and they did so without a premier running back. Instead, the Patriots spread the ball out to Dion Lewis, Mike Gilislee, Rex Burkhead, and a smattering of other players. Dion Lewis had the strongest performance with 896 rushing yards on the season, but he's not feared the way Le'veon Bell or Ezekiel Elliott are feared.
The Patriots running backs benefit tremendously from the success of their passing attack. Teams are forced to place tremendous defensive emphasis on stopping Brady through the air, and it often leaves the run wide open. Tom Brady ranked first in the league in passing yards during the regular season, and despite his age, ranked 5th in completion percentage. What is even more astounding is that Tom Brady found a way to lead the league in passing yards with only a single wide receiver ranked in the 40 in the league, Brandin Cooks. Cooks finished 2017 with 1082 receiver yards, and Rob Gronkowski finished the season with 1084 receiving yards to easily remain the league's most dominant tight end, but those two weapons account for less than half of Brady's yardage. The secret has been Brady's ability to spread the ball out to a host of his weapons including Danny Amendola, Chris Hogan, James White, Rex Burkhead, Dion Lewis, and Philip Dorsett. All of these weapons play their roles effectively, and while keying in on Gronk will always have to be a priority, this team showed last year that it can win a Super Bowl without him.
One could continue to go on and on about how masterful the Patriots offense has been this season, but one major factor could bring all of that to a grinding halt. A few days ago Tom Brady reportedly injured his throwing hand. It sounded as though he jammed some of his fingers during practice, and he wore protective gloves when he returned to work. Brady doesn't have tremendous hands, so grip could be a major issue if he isn't able to squeeze his jammed fingers with much strength. This is totally unknown factor as we haven't seen Brady play with such an injury, and the Patriots were mum about the nature and severity of it during press conferences. If Tom's hand hasn't fully recovered by game time, this could end up becoming a game wherein the Jaguars turn in another incredibly opportunistic performance and capitalize off of throwing errors made by an injured #12. Because this injury is an unknown commodity, however, and jammed fingers can often only take a matter of days to return to normal, I have to assume that Brady will be good to go today.
As great as the Patriots offense has been, the Jaguars offense has been nothing to scoff at this season. They finished 6th in the league in points scored per game, and they even scored a whopping 28.1 points in road games this season. Puzzlingly enough, a high scoring average in road games only produced a 4-4 road record on the season. Much of that had to do with just how dominant the Jaguars were on the road early in the season with huge wins over the Texans (29-7) and the Steelers (30-9) coupled with how poorly they performed on the road down the stretch of the regular season with road losses to the Cardinals (27-24), the 49ers (44-33) and Titans (15-10).
I don't pretend to be unbiased. I love the Ravens, I hate the Steelers, and I've loathed Tom Brady for most of his career. I have taken the Patriots to task on social media in the past regarding their various cheating scandals, and I've been mystified by perceived gifts given to them by referees over the years such as the tuck rule or roughing the passer calls for brushing up against Tommy's leg. More recently, however, I've come to respect the level of preparedness and attention to detail exhibited by Bill Belichick. When I read that Belichick had his players squatting 85% of their one rep maxes the week of last year's Super Bowl, I realized that he has a similar philosophy to mine on not changing training routine going into a game. In other words, if it worked all season, why suddenly change it just because its the Super Bowl?
Bill doesn't have nearly the most talented roster in the league--far from it. He has an elite quarterback and an elite tight end, but no one else's stats jump off the page. Instead, he uses scheme and discipline to elevate the level of play of solid players. His control over his own program has been the reason that he wins without Gronk and without Brady. No one is going to deny Brady's greatness, but Bill took the Patriots to an 11-5 season with Matt Cassel in 2008...and Cassel is a bum. When Brady missed the first 4 games of last season, Bill went 3-0 with Jimmy Garoppolo and only lost once he had to start his 3rd string arm. The Patriots are dramatically better coached than a vastly more talented Steelers team, and only one team in the league has ever beaten them in an AFC Championship game set in New England (CAW! heh heh). The Jaguars run has been impressive this season, and they'll certainly be major contenders for at least another couple of years with the core of their current roster, but their defense is about to go up against an offense run with surgical precision in one of the harshest playoff road environments imaginable. The Belichick-Brady duo might not last many more years, but they've proven they can still dominate their conference.
PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 31-23
The Jaguars offense depends largely on Blake Bortles' ability to scramble for first downs, and the Patriots will be far more disciplined than the Steelers were last week. Belichick will place a spy on Bortles, and he'll be contained rather than over-pursued as the Steelers outside backers did so often last week. The Patriots defense will stop the run more effectively than the Steelers defense did, and force Bortles to try to beat them through the air. The Jaguars' top 2 corners are great, but two elite defenders are not nearly enough to stop the Patriots offense the way the Patriots spread the ball around. The Steelers did one major favor for the Patriots: they showed showed just about every weakness the Jaguars defense has, and they demonstrated just how quickly the Jags can give up points. This should be an entertaining game, but we'll likely see an incredibly familiar team in the Super Bowl representing the AFC once again.
ENJOY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Scoring 45 points against a quality team on the road and in the playoffs is no easy feat. The question is whether that points total had more to do with the Steelers' run-stopping deficiencies following the loss of Ryan Shazier, or whether it was the result of the Jaguars elevating their level of play. Given the fact that the Bills held the Jags to 10 points a week earlier, I have to conclude that Jacksonville's offensive production was due largely to the Steelers' lack of talent and depth at the middle linebacker position.
So who then are the Jaguars? Are they the team that put up 45 points in Pittsburgh, or are they the team that put up 10 points in Buffalo a week earlier? The Jaguars' record in the three weeks leading up to the Steelers game would suggest the latter. When going up quality teams, the Jags stumbled. They allowed a 5-win 49ers team to put a whopping 44 points and what had previously been regarded as the NFL's top defensive unit. They lost to a Titans team that was just absolutely blasted by the Patriots last week, and then, as previously mentioned, they barely squeaked by the Buffalo Bills. The Jaguars are not predictably dominant. They're capable of putting up a dominant performance when they force a ton of turnovers, but they don't typically stonewall a decent offense. They, like the Ravens, put up dominant defensive performances against bad teams, and occasionally force a good team into turning over the ball enough times to tip the scales in their favor.
The Patriots experienced a pair of hiccups early in the season with their Week 1 42-27 loss to the Chiefs and their 33-30 loss to the Panthers in Week 4. Since then, however, they have almost never faltered--even against playoff contenders. After starting the season 2-2, the Brady and company won 11 of their next 12 games to finish 13-3 with the top seed in the AFC going into the playoffs. The Pats also put up 5 strong wins over playoff teams, which is more than all the other teams that reached the post season with the exception of the Vikings.
As one looks at the Patriots' defensive statistics, one thing stands out as odd: the Patriots ranked 30th in passing yards allowed, 20th in rushing yards allowed, but they ranked 4th in the league in points allowed per game. I expected to see that the Patriots had consistently forced many turnovers this season, but they had just over half as many as the Ravens. It turns out that a large part of what made the Patriots defense effective despite allowing a sizable total of yards on the season was their redzone defense. The Patriots redzone defense ranked 5th in the league--just behind Jacksonville. The Patriots allowed touchdowns scored in just 44% of opponents' trips to the redzone at home this season. Pittsburgh, by contrast, allowed touchdowns scored during trips in the redzone a whopping 91% of the time in home games this season. It should, therefore, come as no surprise that the Steelers struggled so hard to keep the Jaguars from scoring in critical situations. Over the last 3 games, however, the Jaguars ranked a dismal 23rd in the league in redzone defense, and it shouldn't come as any surprise that they also allowed the Steelers to score basically at will in the second half of the game.
The Patriots defense has clearly received a major boost from the acquisition of a rested James Harrison. Harrison is not elite at his position anymore, but he is a clear upgrade over what the Patriots had, and the fact that he's played an incredibly limited number snaps in 2017 means his body isn't as beaten down as starters who have played 14-16 games this season. There's no question that New England's offensive consistency helps to give its defense a major break. The Patriots lead the league in first downs per game, and that helps them win the time of possession battle and keep their own defense off the field. One typically doesn't think of the Patriots as a strong rushing team, but they ranked 10th in the league this year with nearly 1900 rushing yards, and they did so without a premier running back. Instead, the Patriots spread the ball out to Dion Lewis, Mike Gilislee, Rex Burkhead, and a smattering of other players. Dion Lewis had the strongest performance with 896 rushing yards on the season, but he's not feared the way Le'veon Bell or Ezekiel Elliott are feared.
The Patriots running backs benefit tremendously from the success of their passing attack. Teams are forced to place tremendous defensive emphasis on stopping Brady through the air, and it often leaves the run wide open. Tom Brady ranked first in the league in passing yards during the regular season, and despite his age, ranked 5th in completion percentage. What is even more astounding is that Tom Brady found a way to lead the league in passing yards with only a single wide receiver ranked in the 40 in the league, Brandin Cooks. Cooks finished 2017 with 1082 receiver yards, and Rob Gronkowski finished the season with 1084 receiving yards to easily remain the league's most dominant tight end, but those two weapons account for less than half of Brady's yardage. The secret has been Brady's ability to spread the ball out to a host of his weapons including Danny Amendola, Chris Hogan, James White, Rex Burkhead, Dion Lewis, and Philip Dorsett. All of these weapons play their roles effectively, and while keying in on Gronk will always have to be a priority, this team showed last year that it can win a Super Bowl without him.
One could continue to go on and on about how masterful the Patriots offense has been this season, but one major factor could bring all of that to a grinding halt. A few days ago Tom Brady reportedly injured his throwing hand. It sounded as though he jammed some of his fingers during practice, and he wore protective gloves when he returned to work. Brady doesn't have tremendous hands, so grip could be a major issue if he isn't able to squeeze his jammed fingers with much strength. This is totally unknown factor as we haven't seen Brady play with such an injury, and the Patriots were mum about the nature and severity of it during press conferences. If Tom's hand hasn't fully recovered by game time, this could end up becoming a game wherein the Jaguars turn in another incredibly opportunistic performance and capitalize off of throwing errors made by an injured #12. Because this injury is an unknown commodity, however, and jammed fingers can often only take a matter of days to return to normal, I have to assume that Brady will be good to go today.
As great as the Patriots offense has been, the Jaguars offense has been nothing to scoff at this season. They finished 6th in the league in points scored per game, and they even scored a whopping 28.1 points in road games this season. Puzzlingly enough, a high scoring average in road games only produced a 4-4 road record on the season. Much of that had to do with just how dominant the Jaguars were on the road early in the season with huge wins over the Texans (29-7) and the Steelers (30-9) coupled with how poorly they performed on the road down the stretch of the regular season with road losses to the Cardinals (27-24), the 49ers (44-33) and Titans (15-10).
I don't pretend to be unbiased. I love the Ravens, I hate the Steelers, and I've loathed Tom Brady for most of his career. I have taken the Patriots to task on social media in the past regarding their various cheating scandals, and I've been mystified by perceived gifts given to them by referees over the years such as the tuck rule or roughing the passer calls for brushing up against Tommy's leg. More recently, however, I've come to respect the level of preparedness and attention to detail exhibited by Bill Belichick. When I read that Belichick had his players squatting 85% of their one rep maxes the week of last year's Super Bowl, I realized that he has a similar philosophy to mine on not changing training routine going into a game. In other words, if it worked all season, why suddenly change it just because its the Super Bowl?
Bill doesn't have nearly the most talented roster in the league--far from it. He has an elite quarterback and an elite tight end, but no one else's stats jump off the page. Instead, he uses scheme and discipline to elevate the level of play of solid players. His control over his own program has been the reason that he wins without Gronk and without Brady. No one is going to deny Brady's greatness, but Bill took the Patriots to an 11-5 season with Matt Cassel in 2008...and Cassel is a bum. When Brady missed the first 4 games of last season, Bill went 3-0 with Jimmy Garoppolo and only lost once he had to start his 3rd string arm. The Patriots are dramatically better coached than a vastly more talented Steelers team, and only one team in the league has ever beaten them in an AFC Championship game set in New England (CAW! heh heh). The Jaguars run has been impressive this season, and they'll certainly be major contenders for at least another couple of years with the core of their current roster, but their defense is about to go up against an offense run with surgical precision in one of the harshest playoff road environments imaginable. The Belichick-Brady duo might not last many more years, but they've proven they can still dominate their conference.
PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 31-23
The Jaguars offense depends largely on Blake Bortles' ability to scramble for first downs, and the Patriots will be far more disciplined than the Steelers were last week. Belichick will place a spy on Bortles, and he'll be contained rather than over-pursued as the Steelers outside backers did so often last week. The Patriots defense will stop the run more effectively than the Steelers defense did, and force Bortles to try to beat them through the air. The Jaguars' top 2 corners are great, but two elite defenders are not nearly enough to stop the Patriots offense the way the Patriots spread the ball around. The Steelers did one major favor for the Patriots: they showed showed just about every weakness the Jaguars defense has, and they demonstrated just how quickly the Jags can give up points. This should be an entertaining game, but we'll likely see an incredibly familiar team in the Super Bowl representing the AFC once again.
ENJOY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, January 14, 2018
NFL PLAYOFFS DIVISIONAL ROUND PREDICTIONS: SAINTS AT VIKINGS
The New Orleans Saints had a rough start to their season as their first two opponents were the Vikings and Patriots. The Saints lost 29-19 in Minnesota and 36-20 against the Patriots in New Orleans, but they followed their 0-2 start with an 8-0 run and they finished the regular season 11-5. The Saints offense has shown the ability to produce yardage and points not only on the arm of breeze but also the legs of Mark Ingram and the rookie sensation Alvin Kamara. The Vikings, meanwhile, have weathered a flurry of injuries to key players without faltering, and put together a dominant 13-3 season. As a bonus, the Vikings have the good fortune of the Super Bowl taking place in their home stadium. If the Vikings were to reach the Super Bowl, they would likely have an overwhelming home field advantage. First, they're going to have to win their next two games.
The Vikings are nearly perfect at home this season with a 7-1 record in Minneapolis. The Saints, by contrast, are 4-4 on the road, and lost all of their last three road contests. I would hate to oversimplify this game, but I have little faith in New Orleans to go into Minnesota and beat a rested Vikings team. The Saints ranked 10th in the league in points allowed this season, but the Vikings D ranked first, and the Vikings offense ranked a surprising 10th despite being led by Case Keenum. Keenum, in fact, finished the regular season with the 2rd ranked quarterback rating in the league, much to the amazement of anyone who realized it. New Orleans offense ranked 4th on the season in scoring with 28 points per game, but that average fell in road games to 23.375 and only 20.33 during their current road losing streak.
This all isn't to say the Saints won't put up a fight, but going on the road to face a rested team with the greatest defense in the NFL is a tall task for any team--especially one that has struggled on the road for the last two months. After watching the Vikings suffocate nearly every team they played this year, I have little doubt that they'll at least limit the Saints offense to under 30 points, and that might just be enough to win this game.
PREDICTION: VIKINGS 30-23
AS I WRITE THIS, THE JAGUARS JUST PUT WHAT SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE PROVERBIAL NAIL IN THE STEELERS' COFFIN!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!
The Vikings are nearly perfect at home this season with a 7-1 record in Minneapolis. The Saints, by contrast, are 4-4 on the road, and lost all of their last three road contests. I would hate to oversimplify this game, but I have little faith in New Orleans to go into Minnesota and beat a rested Vikings team. The Saints ranked 10th in the league in points allowed this season, but the Vikings D ranked first, and the Vikings offense ranked a surprising 10th despite being led by Case Keenum. Keenum, in fact, finished the regular season with the 2rd ranked quarterback rating in the league, much to the amazement of anyone who realized it. New Orleans offense ranked 4th on the season in scoring with 28 points per game, but that average fell in road games to 23.375 and only 20.33 during their current road losing streak.
This all isn't to say the Saints won't put up a fight, but going on the road to face a rested team with the greatest defense in the NFL is a tall task for any team--especially one that has struggled on the road for the last two months. After watching the Vikings suffocate nearly every team they played this year, I have little doubt that they'll at least limit the Saints offense to under 30 points, and that might just be enough to win this game.
PREDICTION: VIKINGS 30-23
AS I WRITE THIS, THE JAGUARS JUST PUT WHAT SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE PROVERBIAL NAIL IN THE STEELERS' COFFIN!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!
NFL PLAYOFFS DIVISIONAL ROUND: JAGUARS-STEELERS
Much has changed since the Steelers last faced the Jaguars in Pittsburgh. The Steelers offense spent much of the first half of the season struggling to find its rhythm despite the presence of undeniably elite weapons. Big Ben appeared to struggle to put as much zip on his passes, and his accuracy suffered as a result. Roethlisberger's struggled came to a boiling point during a 30-9 rout at the hands of the Jaguars in Pittsburgh in large part due to five interceptions. Following that loss, however, the Steelers went on an 9-1 run to close out the season with their only loss coming in impossibly narrow fashion to the New England Patriots. Sure, many of the games won during that stretch were uncomfortably close as well and not against particularly competitive teams, but in the NFL a win is a win, and a 9-1 run is a monumental feat. So what exactly has changed about these Steelers since these two teams last met--and what has changed about the Jaguars?
The Steelers began the season by squeaking by a Browns team that failed to win a game on the season 21-18. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 263 yards, one touchdown and an interception. Le' Veon Bell, by contrast, only managed 32 rushing yards. The Steelers found far more success facing a Vikings team that had just lost its starting quarterback the following week, but then lost the following game in overtime to a Bears team that confusingly swept the AFC North this year despite winning almost no other games. The Steelers handled the Ravens in Baltimore, but then got absolutely dominated by the Jaguars. So what changed to allow this team to go on a 9-1 run after an up and down start to the season? I first looked for patterns in the production levels of the usual suspects such as Ben, Le'veon, and Antonio. It was difficult to find a correlation between the production of the team's most notorious weapons and the team's success from a wins/losses standpoint, but when I took at look at the production of the Steelers' newest superstar, it all made sense.
Juju Smith-Schuster didn't have the greatest breakout rookie season of the last several years, but he DID have one of the most impressive rookie receiving campaigns of a pass-catcher not picked in the first round. Smith-Schuster, after all, did not register record-breaking elite 40 yard dash time the way John Ross did, nor was he coveted the way Mike Williams, and Corey Davis were following last college football season. Juju Smith Schuster ran a 4.54 forty at the combine, and he was compared to Anquan Boldin. Now Boldin was a great receiver in his day, and he went to the Pro Bowl as a rookie, but he never possessed the game-breaking speed Schuster-Smith displayed many times this season. Whatever the stopwatch said at the combine, it didn't accurately account for his ability to make contested catches, get tough yards after contact, and outrun defensive backs in the open field for big plays. In pads, cleats, and a helmet, Juju has great game speed.
During the early season, Smith-Schuster's production was solid for a rookie, but never spectacular. It should come as no surprise that this was also the period the Steelers struggled offensively. The Steelers had to rely too much on only two players to produce on offense, but by the second half of the season, that changed profoundly. Juju had his breakout game against the Lions where he caught for 193 yards including a 97 yard touchdown that let the football world he had arrived. From that point on, the 62nd pick in the 2017 draft routinely put up spectacular rookie numbers with 97 receiving yards against the Colts, 114 yards against the Patriots, 75 yards against the Texans, and a whopping 143 yards against the Browns even with backup QB throwing to him. During the Steelers' 3-2 start, Juju 32 receiving yards per game, but during the Steelers 9-1 run, he averaged 84.1 receiving yards per game. The presence of another game-breaking weapon meant teams couldn't simply just key in on Bell and Brown. In games where teams allocated their defensive resources to stop Antonio Brown, Juju picked up the slack and put on a show. The Colts, for example, limited Antonio to 47 receiving yards, so Juju caught for 97. The Lions limited Antonio Brown to 70 yards, so Juju caught for 193. When Antonio Brown went down against the Patriots, Juju caught for 114 in a game that the Steelers probably could have won were it not for a bewildering call by their offensive coordinator, Todd Haley, not to spike the ball down near the goal line with time winding down.
Now Smith-Schuster finds himself once against in a position to have to lead the team in receiving yards as Antonio Brown is reportedly "not close to 100%" in his recovery the calf tear he incurred against New England over one month ago. Brown will, nevertheless, attempt to play, but it's difficult to imagine he'll be able to do much against either member of the best corner tandem in the league. Those two corners can't cover every Steelers receiver simultaneously, and that's one reason the combination of Juju, Martavis Bryant, Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell (as a pass-catcher), and Vance McDonald, will present a greater challenge than the unit that was suffocated by the Jaguars earlier this season.
The Jaguars offense, on the other hand, has not exactly gained steam towards the end of the season. The fact that they struggled to put up points on the 26th ranked Buffalo defense bodes poorly going into a game against a rested Steelers team on a cold day...in Pittsburgh. The Steelers D took a big hit when it lost Ryan Shazier, but the return of their best corner, Joe Haden, has helped to mitigate the overall effect of Shazier's loss on the defensive unit as a whole. The key to the Jaguars offense is not the number of passing yards thrown by Blake Bortles. On the contrary, he has put up reasonable yardage totals in losses, and thrown for poor numbers during some wins. Bortles, for example, threw for a mere 95 yards against the Steelers in their 30-9 win in Pittsburgh. Leonard Fournette, however, rushed for 181 yards in that very game. Fournette, in fact, was held to 66.33 rushing yards per game in the Jaguars losses, and he rushed for an average of 91.7 yards per game in the Jaguars' wins.
If the Steelers are able to limit Leonard Fournette early and take a lead over the Jags in the first half, they'll force the ball into the hands of Blake Bortles, who made a ton of mistakes late in the season in games where he was forced to throw the ball 30+ times. Against the 49ers, for example, Bortles attempted 50 passes and threw 3 picks, and in their regular season finale loss to the Titans, Bortles attempted 34 passes and threw two interceptions.
Now the Steelers struggled to stop Fournette earlier in the season when Ryan Shazier was healthy, but as the season has worn on, the Jaguars have appeared to get less and less out of their stud running back. It's possible that a full season has simply taken its toll on his body, or teams may have figured out how to better stop the Jaguars' rushing schemes. One way or another, Stopping Fournette will be a major focus for Pittsburgh.
The Steelers offense has simply kicked into a different gear as that which started so sluggishly over the first five games of the regular season. Big Ben has been better about minimizing mistakes, and the rise of Juju Smith-Schuster has added an element to help take pressure off of Antonio Brown. Martavis Bryant has also been a more consistent contributor after an up-and-down first half of the regular season. Add to all that the fact that this is a Florida team playing in cold weather, and the scales should be tilted in favor of the Steelers.
PREDICTION: STEELERS 27-21
STAY TUNED LATER FOR THE PREDICTION FOR TONIGHT'S SAINTS-VIKINGS MATCHUP!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
The Steelers began the season by squeaking by a Browns team that failed to win a game on the season 21-18. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 263 yards, one touchdown and an interception. Le' Veon Bell, by contrast, only managed 32 rushing yards. The Steelers found far more success facing a Vikings team that had just lost its starting quarterback the following week, but then lost the following game in overtime to a Bears team that confusingly swept the AFC North this year despite winning almost no other games. The Steelers handled the Ravens in Baltimore, but then got absolutely dominated by the Jaguars. So what changed to allow this team to go on a 9-1 run after an up and down start to the season? I first looked for patterns in the production levels of the usual suspects such as Ben, Le'veon, and Antonio. It was difficult to find a correlation between the production of the team's most notorious weapons and the team's success from a wins/losses standpoint, but when I took at look at the production of the Steelers' newest superstar, it all made sense.
Juju Smith-Schuster didn't have the greatest breakout rookie season of the last several years, but he DID have one of the most impressive rookie receiving campaigns of a pass-catcher not picked in the first round. Smith-Schuster, after all, did not register record-breaking elite 40 yard dash time the way John Ross did, nor was he coveted the way Mike Williams, and Corey Davis were following last college football season. Juju Smith Schuster ran a 4.54 forty at the combine, and he was compared to Anquan Boldin. Now Boldin was a great receiver in his day, and he went to the Pro Bowl as a rookie, but he never possessed the game-breaking speed Schuster-Smith displayed many times this season. Whatever the stopwatch said at the combine, it didn't accurately account for his ability to make contested catches, get tough yards after contact, and outrun defensive backs in the open field for big plays. In pads, cleats, and a helmet, Juju has great game speed.
During the early season, Smith-Schuster's production was solid for a rookie, but never spectacular. It should come as no surprise that this was also the period the Steelers struggled offensively. The Steelers had to rely too much on only two players to produce on offense, but by the second half of the season, that changed profoundly. Juju had his breakout game against the Lions where he caught for 193 yards including a 97 yard touchdown that let the football world he had arrived. From that point on, the 62nd pick in the 2017 draft routinely put up spectacular rookie numbers with 97 receiving yards against the Colts, 114 yards against the Patriots, 75 yards against the Texans, and a whopping 143 yards against the Browns even with backup QB throwing to him. During the Steelers' 3-2 start, Juju 32 receiving yards per game, but during the Steelers 9-1 run, he averaged 84.1 receiving yards per game. The presence of another game-breaking weapon meant teams couldn't simply just key in on Bell and Brown. In games where teams allocated their defensive resources to stop Antonio Brown, Juju picked up the slack and put on a show. The Colts, for example, limited Antonio to 47 receiving yards, so Juju caught for 97. The Lions limited Antonio Brown to 70 yards, so Juju caught for 193. When Antonio Brown went down against the Patriots, Juju caught for 114 in a game that the Steelers probably could have won were it not for a bewildering call by their offensive coordinator, Todd Haley, not to spike the ball down near the goal line with time winding down.
Now Smith-Schuster finds himself once against in a position to have to lead the team in receiving yards as Antonio Brown is reportedly "not close to 100%" in his recovery the calf tear he incurred against New England over one month ago. Brown will, nevertheless, attempt to play, but it's difficult to imagine he'll be able to do much against either member of the best corner tandem in the league. Those two corners can't cover every Steelers receiver simultaneously, and that's one reason the combination of Juju, Martavis Bryant, Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell (as a pass-catcher), and Vance McDonald, will present a greater challenge than the unit that was suffocated by the Jaguars earlier this season.
The Jaguars offense, on the other hand, has not exactly gained steam towards the end of the season. The fact that they struggled to put up points on the 26th ranked Buffalo defense bodes poorly going into a game against a rested Steelers team on a cold day...in Pittsburgh. The Steelers D took a big hit when it lost Ryan Shazier, but the return of their best corner, Joe Haden, has helped to mitigate the overall effect of Shazier's loss on the defensive unit as a whole. The key to the Jaguars offense is not the number of passing yards thrown by Blake Bortles. On the contrary, he has put up reasonable yardage totals in losses, and thrown for poor numbers during some wins. Bortles, for example, threw for a mere 95 yards against the Steelers in their 30-9 win in Pittsburgh. Leonard Fournette, however, rushed for 181 yards in that very game. Fournette, in fact, was held to 66.33 rushing yards per game in the Jaguars losses, and he rushed for an average of 91.7 yards per game in the Jaguars' wins.
If the Steelers are able to limit Leonard Fournette early and take a lead over the Jags in the first half, they'll force the ball into the hands of Blake Bortles, who made a ton of mistakes late in the season in games where he was forced to throw the ball 30+ times. Against the 49ers, for example, Bortles attempted 50 passes and threw 3 picks, and in their regular season finale loss to the Titans, Bortles attempted 34 passes and threw two interceptions.
Now the Steelers struggled to stop Fournette earlier in the season when Ryan Shazier was healthy, but as the season has worn on, the Jaguars have appeared to get less and less out of their stud running back. It's possible that a full season has simply taken its toll on his body, or teams may have figured out how to better stop the Jaguars' rushing schemes. One way or another, Stopping Fournette will be a major focus for Pittsburgh.
The Steelers offense has simply kicked into a different gear as that which started so sluggishly over the first five games of the regular season. Big Ben has been better about minimizing mistakes, and the rise of Juju Smith-Schuster has added an element to help take pressure off of Antonio Brown. Martavis Bryant has also been a more consistent contributor after an up-and-down first half of the regular season. Add to all that the fact that this is a Florida team playing in cold weather, and the scales should be tilted in favor of the Steelers.
PREDICTION: STEELERS 27-21
STAY TUNED LATER FOR THE PREDICTION FOR TONIGHT'S SAINTS-VIKINGS MATCHUP!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Saturday, January 13, 2018
NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND PREDICTIONS: SATURDAY MATCHUPS
Predicting the outcome of a sporting event is not an exact science--far from it. Human error is difficult to predict, and injuries are even harder to see coming. I, for example, could not have predicted that Travis Kelce would be knocked out of last week's Titans-Chiefs matchup, and its safe to say that his presence could have radically altered what turned out to be a one-point win for the Titans. That's just how it goes sometimes, and I would always go with that pick the way the stats presented themselves prior to the game. The game that followed, however, left me kicking myself for a starkly different reason.
While looking over the body of work from the both the Falcons and Rams last week I came across and wrote about a somewhat troubling pattern from the Rams' home games. The Rams only won half their home games during the 2017 regular season, and in home games they lost, they tended to turn the ball over early and often. The turnovers forced the Rams to put the ball into Jared Goff's hands far more than would be conducive to success. Don't get me wrong; Goff had a nice season. He, however, depended tremendously on his team's ability to run the football in order to open things up for his passing attack through the air. I also discovered just how poorly ranked the Rams defense finished the season despite my preconceived notion that they were relatively stout in that department.
I contemplated predicting a road upset for the Falcons because of a weak Rams defense and a high Rams home turnover rate, but I ignored my gut and picked the team favored to win...and man did I regret it. As a rule, one should not bank one a home team with a poor defense and bad home record--when I say it out loud, it sounds like a no-brainer. The Falcons, however, are not facing a team with a poor defense and poor home record this week. They're facing quite the opposite.
The Philadelphia Eagles rank third in the NFL in points scored, forth in the league in points allowed, and continued to win football games even after losing their starting quarterback due to the presence of a backup who also happens to be their former starter. Nick Foles most certainly isn't Carson Wentz, but he did put up a season as a starter in the not-too-distant past for the Eagles wherein he threw for 27 touchdowns and only three interceptions. The Eagles' defensive stats should remain mostly relevant for the prediction of this game, but we must collect offensive stats only from games that featured Nick Foles. Fortunately for us, the Falcons and Eagles have faced common opponents this season, and that should help to a reasonable degree.
Carson Wentz' last game was, in fact, against the Rams. He came out of that game with a torn ACL, and I thought at the time that the Rams would surely pull ahead. Foles stepped right in and the Eagles didn't miss a beat. The Eagles defense did, nevertheless, allow the Rams to score a whopping 35 points considering how the Falcons were able to limit the Rams last weekend. The two games Nick Foles started following their game against the Rams were a close win over the lowly Giants and a narrow win over a struggling Raiders team. It is these narrow wins over poor opponents that almost certainly drives the Eagles' status as home underdogs today.
The more I look at the three games Nick Foles played in, the more I wonder if much of the Eagles' success was predicated on Carson Wentz's ability to keep them off the field with his own offensive success. Beating teams by narrow margins was fairly common for this Eagles team both before and after Wentz's injury. Prior to tearing his ACL, Carson Wentz led his team to a 27-24 home win over the Giants, a 26-24 win over the Chargers, a 28-23 win over the Panthers, and a slightly more convincinv 34-24 win over the Redskins. There were also some resounding wins such as the 34-7 win over the Cardinals, the 33-10 win over the 49ers, the 51-23 win over the Broncos, the 37-9 win over the Cowboys, and a 31-3 win over the Bears, but only one of those teams finished the season with a winning record.
What then can we make of the Eagles success this season? They beat up on bad teams and barely squeaked by good teams with Carson Wentz leading the charge, but then they put up a less-than-convincing home performance against a Raiders team with an atrocious home record and no hope for the playoffs. Nick Foles threw for 163 yards with one touchdown and one interception against a Raiders pass defense that ranked 26th in the league. He had a nice performance against the Giants the week earlier with 237 passing yards an 4 touchdowns, but the Giants were ranked 31st in the league in pass defense, and 27th against the run. Oakland, instead, was ranked 12th against the run, and the Raiders defense was able to hold Jay Ajayi to only 52 yards, thus, forcing Nick Foles to beat them through the air. Atlanta's rush defense is is even higher ranked at 9th, and they were able to limit a rather formidable Rams rushing attack last week. Philadelphia produced the top rated run defense in the league during the regular season, but their pass defense ranks at a mediocre 17th. Atlanta also features a stronger pass 12th ranked pass defense that showed last week that it was ready to play at a ferociously physical level.
I began writing assuming I would examine the statistics to find that the Falcons would struggle against a strong Eagles defense with a competent offense led by one of the better backups in the league. The numbers simply don't reflect those ideas. The Falcons have a dramatically better quarterback, a superior set of receivers, a better running back, and a stronger defense overall. The Eagles defense has been strong in certain areas, but much of their stats were padded in dominant wins over lackluster teams while Carson Wentz was still starting quarterback. Nick Foles might surprise us all today, but he doesn't have the level of mobility, athleticism, and accuracy to keep drives alive the way Wentz did so often this season. If the Eagles couldn't dominate the Raiders at home, it appears highly unlikely they'll be able to beat out an experienced, talented Falcons team tonight.
PREDICTION: FALCONS 28-23
I would hate to disrespect an NFL playoff game with brief analysis prior to a prediction, but there's almost nothing I can see from the Titans that gives me the impression that they can go into New England and beat the Patriots this season. If Travis Kelce doesn't leave the game last week with a massive concussion, there's little chance they're able to edge the Chiefs by a single point. The Patriots are masters of the post-season, and there has been exactly one team that has been able to go toe to toe with them in Foxborough in recent years, and that team didn't even make the playoffs this season.
Tom Brady has looked human at times this season, but he also led the league in passing. The Patriots also made an incredibly shrewd move adding veteran former Steeler James Harrison to boost their pass rush going into the post-season. To add to it, unlike last season, the Super Bowl Champion Patriots have a healthy Rob Gronkowski going into the playoffs, and they actually have a legitimate deep threat in Brandin Cooks. To add to it, the Patriots are well-rested, impossibly well-coached, and they break down film of their opponents better than virtually anyone else in the league. The Titans are a flawed team that got into the playoffs by the skin of their teeth, and they edged another flawed team that probably didn't truly deserve to be in the playoffs either.
This won't necessarily be a colossal blowout, but the Titans feature the 25th ranked pass defense in the league, and that's enough to allow Brady and company to pull away in 4th quarter or mount a spectacular late-game comeback. The Patriots defensive statistics aren't great on the season, but James Harrison proved that his presence changes that dramatically as he had two sacks, 5 tackles, and a forced fumble in his first game playing for Bill Belichick. Let's hope for a good game, but I simply can't see a reasonable scenario where a poor Titans pass defense is able to limit the Patriots to a point where a mediocre Titans offense could outscore Brady in New England...in the playoffs.
PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 33-24
STAY TURNED FOR PREDICTIONS FOR TOMORROW'S GAMES! AND STAY TUNED FOR INSTALLMENTS OF THE RAVENS DRAFT WISHLIST LEADING UP TO AND FOLLOWING THE NFL COMBINE NEXT MONTH!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS...GO GET CALVIN RIDLEY!
While looking over the body of work from the both the Falcons and Rams last week I came across and wrote about a somewhat troubling pattern from the Rams' home games. The Rams only won half their home games during the 2017 regular season, and in home games they lost, they tended to turn the ball over early and often. The turnovers forced the Rams to put the ball into Jared Goff's hands far more than would be conducive to success. Don't get me wrong; Goff had a nice season. He, however, depended tremendously on his team's ability to run the football in order to open things up for his passing attack through the air. I also discovered just how poorly ranked the Rams defense finished the season despite my preconceived notion that they were relatively stout in that department.
I contemplated predicting a road upset for the Falcons because of a weak Rams defense and a high Rams home turnover rate, but I ignored my gut and picked the team favored to win...and man did I regret it. As a rule, one should not bank one a home team with a poor defense and bad home record--when I say it out loud, it sounds like a no-brainer. The Falcons, however, are not facing a team with a poor defense and poor home record this week. They're facing quite the opposite.
The Philadelphia Eagles rank third in the NFL in points scored, forth in the league in points allowed, and continued to win football games even after losing their starting quarterback due to the presence of a backup who also happens to be their former starter. Nick Foles most certainly isn't Carson Wentz, but he did put up a season as a starter in the not-too-distant past for the Eagles wherein he threw for 27 touchdowns and only three interceptions. The Eagles' defensive stats should remain mostly relevant for the prediction of this game, but we must collect offensive stats only from games that featured Nick Foles. Fortunately for us, the Falcons and Eagles have faced common opponents this season, and that should help to a reasonable degree.
Carson Wentz' last game was, in fact, against the Rams. He came out of that game with a torn ACL, and I thought at the time that the Rams would surely pull ahead. Foles stepped right in and the Eagles didn't miss a beat. The Eagles defense did, nevertheless, allow the Rams to score a whopping 35 points considering how the Falcons were able to limit the Rams last weekend. The two games Nick Foles started following their game against the Rams were a close win over the lowly Giants and a narrow win over a struggling Raiders team. It is these narrow wins over poor opponents that almost certainly drives the Eagles' status as home underdogs today.
The more I look at the three games Nick Foles played in, the more I wonder if much of the Eagles' success was predicated on Carson Wentz's ability to keep them off the field with his own offensive success. Beating teams by narrow margins was fairly common for this Eagles team both before and after Wentz's injury. Prior to tearing his ACL, Carson Wentz led his team to a 27-24 home win over the Giants, a 26-24 win over the Chargers, a 28-23 win over the Panthers, and a slightly more convincinv 34-24 win over the Redskins. There were also some resounding wins such as the 34-7 win over the Cardinals, the 33-10 win over the 49ers, the 51-23 win over the Broncos, the 37-9 win over the Cowboys, and a 31-3 win over the Bears, but only one of those teams finished the season with a winning record.
What then can we make of the Eagles success this season? They beat up on bad teams and barely squeaked by good teams with Carson Wentz leading the charge, but then they put up a less-than-convincing home performance against a Raiders team with an atrocious home record and no hope for the playoffs. Nick Foles threw for 163 yards with one touchdown and one interception against a Raiders pass defense that ranked 26th in the league. He had a nice performance against the Giants the week earlier with 237 passing yards an 4 touchdowns, but the Giants were ranked 31st in the league in pass defense, and 27th against the run. Oakland, instead, was ranked 12th against the run, and the Raiders defense was able to hold Jay Ajayi to only 52 yards, thus, forcing Nick Foles to beat them through the air. Atlanta's rush defense is is even higher ranked at 9th, and they were able to limit a rather formidable Rams rushing attack last week. Philadelphia produced the top rated run defense in the league during the regular season, but their pass defense ranks at a mediocre 17th. Atlanta also features a stronger pass 12th ranked pass defense that showed last week that it was ready to play at a ferociously physical level.
I began writing assuming I would examine the statistics to find that the Falcons would struggle against a strong Eagles defense with a competent offense led by one of the better backups in the league. The numbers simply don't reflect those ideas. The Falcons have a dramatically better quarterback, a superior set of receivers, a better running back, and a stronger defense overall. The Eagles defense has been strong in certain areas, but much of their stats were padded in dominant wins over lackluster teams while Carson Wentz was still starting quarterback. Nick Foles might surprise us all today, but he doesn't have the level of mobility, athleticism, and accuracy to keep drives alive the way Wentz did so often this season. If the Eagles couldn't dominate the Raiders at home, it appears highly unlikely they'll be able to beat out an experienced, talented Falcons team tonight.
PREDICTION: FALCONS 28-23
I would hate to disrespect an NFL playoff game with brief analysis prior to a prediction, but there's almost nothing I can see from the Titans that gives me the impression that they can go into New England and beat the Patriots this season. If Travis Kelce doesn't leave the game last week with a massive concussion, there's little chance they're able to edge the Chiefs by a single point. The Patriots are masters of the post-season, and there has been exactly one team that has been able to go toe to toe with them in Foxborough in recent years, and that team didn't even make the playoffs this season.
Tom Brady has looked human at times this season, but he also led the league in passing. The Patriots also made an incredibly shrewd move adding veteran former Steeler James Harrison to boost their pass rush going into the post-season. To add to it, unlike last season, the Super Bowl Champion Patriots have a healthy Rob Gronkowski going into the playoffs, and they actually have a legitimate deep threat in Brandin Cooks. To add to it, the Patriots are well-rested, impossibly well-coached, and they break down film of their opponents better than virtually anyone else in the league. The Titans are a flawed team that got into the playoffs by the skin of their teeth, and they edged another flawed team that probably didn't truly deserve to be in the playoffs either.
This won't necessarily be a colossal blowout, but the Titans feature the 25th ranked pass defense in the league, and that's enough to allow Brady and company to pull away in 4th quarter or mount a spectacular late-game comeback. The Patriots defensive statistics aren't great on the season, but James Harrison proved that his presence changes that dramatically as he had two sacks, 5 tackles, and a forced fumble in his first game playing for Bill Belichick. Let's hope for a good game, but I simply can't see a reasonable scenario where a poor Titans pass defense is able to limit the Patriots to a point where a mediocre Titans offense could outscore Brady in New England...in the playoffs.
PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 33-24
STAY TURNED FOR PREDICTIONS FOR TOMORROW'S GAMES! AND STAY TUNED FOR INSTALLMENTS OF THE RAVENS DRAFT WISHLIST LEADING UP TO AND FOLLOWING THE NFL COMBINE NEXT MONTH!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS...GO GET CALVIN RIDLEY!
Sunday, January 7, 2018
NFL WILDCARD WEEKEND ANALYSIS AND PREDICTIONS: PANTHERS AT SAINTS
This afternoon's matchup between the Saints and Panthers offers the most relevant set of statistics of any wildcard matchup thus far. The Saints and Panthers, because they play in the same division, already faced off twice this season. This might be a bit more interesting if these teams had split their matchups in 2017. Alas, the Saints beat the Panthers soundly in both matchups.
One might assume that, of the two games these teams played against one another, the game in Charlotte would have been the closer contest--and that would be incorrect. The Saints absolutely slaughtered the Panthers in North Carolina 34-13 for New Orleans' first win of the season. Ironically, the next meeting between these teams was somewhat closer, 31-21, but it still wasn't exactly a barn-burner. The Saints were winning 28-14 going into the 4th quarter, and despite a late touchdown by the Panthers, the Saints put together a 4th quarter drive that ended in a field goal to put the game mostly out of reach.
It's always difficult to beat a quality team in the NFL, even if your team has beaten them twice already earlier in the season. The Panthers have now seen most of what the Saints can throw at them, and Cam Newton is always a threat to take over a game. The issue is that the Saints are nearly perfect at home with their only loss in New Orleans coming understandably against the Patriots early in the season. The Panthers are not the Patriots. They do have a decent 5-3 road record this season, and playing in the Super Dome shouldn't intimidate them--it just doesn't appear that they have the weapons to outscore the Saints.
New Orleans boasts the first two players on the same team in NFL history who have each compiled 1500 all purpose yards in the same season in Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Throw in a wide receiver with over 1200 receiving yards on the season in Michael Thomas and you have a extremely dangerous trio of top-level weapons. It certainly doesn't hurt matters that Drew Brees is the man delivering the ball to these three dynamic athletes. Oh, and let's not forget that the Saints did get a reasonable amount of production from the field-stretching speed of Ted Ginn Jr.
The Saints offense certainly isn't invincible as the Saints have lost on the road to a good chunk of the NFC teams that made the playoffs this season. The Saints lost to the Vikings in Minnesota, the Rams in L.A., and the Falcons in Atlanta over the course of 2017. It is for this reason that their road to a Super Bowl could be a rough one, but there's little reason to believe their road will end today. The Panthers do not have the level of offensive weapons that New Orleans possess. Cam Newton has had to rely on his own will and athleticism to lead his team to victory in many cases. Newton, in fact, leading his team in rushing with 754 yards on the ground, and his leading receiver is Devin Funchess with only 840 yards on the season. Because of Newton's heroics on the ground in concert with a solid level of production from Jonathan Stewart and Christian McCaffrey, the Pathers' rushing attack ranks 4th in the league. The Pathers' passing offense, by contrast, ranked 28th.
The Carolina Panthers did finish the regular season with the 9th ranked defense by yards allowed and the 11th ranked defense in points allowed, but their offense is probably too one-dimensional to ultimately keep up with a Saints team that scored a combined 65 points against Carolina this season. This would be far more interesting if there were some major key injuries that figured to change the dynamic of this game in a major way, but that does not appear to be the case today--but who knows? Everything else thus far as been a total upset.
PREDICTION: SAINTS 33-24
THE BILLS ARE UP AT HALFTIME 3-0 AGAINST A JAGUARS TEAM THAT HAS YET TO FIND ANY SORT OF OFFENSIVE RHYTHM. WHERE WAS THIS JAGUARS TEAM WHEN THEY FACED THE RAVENS IN LONDON? ENJOY THE REST OF TODAY'S GAMES!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
One might assume that, of the two games these teams played against one another, the game in Charlotte would have been the closer contest--and that would be incorrect. The Saints absolutely slaughtered the Panthers in North Carolina 34-13 for New Orleans' first win of the season. Ironically, the next meeting between these teams was somewhat closer, 31-21, but it still wasn't exactly a barn-burner. The Saints were winning 28-14 going into the 4th quarter, and despite a late touchdown by the Panthers, the Saints put together a 4th quarter drive that ended in a field goal to put the game mostly out of reach.
It's always difficult to beat a quality team in the NFL, even if your team has beaten them twice already earlier in the season. The Panthers have now seen most of what the Saints can throw at them, and Cam Newton is always a threat to take over a game. The issue is that the Saints are nearly perfect at home with their only loss in New Orleans coming understandably against the Patriots early in the season. The Panthers are not the Patriots. They do have a decent 5-3 road record this season, and playing in the Super Dome shouldn't intimidate them--it just doesn't appear that they have the weapons to outscore the Saints.
New Orleans boasts the first two players on the same team in NFL history who have each compiled 1500 all purpose yards in the same season in Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Throw in a wide receiver with over 1200 receiving yards on the season in Michael Thomas and you have a extremely dangerous trio of top-level weapons. It certainly doesn't hurt matters that Drew Brees is the man delivering the ball to these three dynamic athletes. Oh, and let's not forget that the Saints did get a reasonable amount of production from the field-stretching speed of Ted Ginn Jr.
The Saints offense certainly isn't invincible as the Saints have lost on the road to a good chunk of the NFC teams that made the playoffs this season. The Saints lost to the Vikings in Minnesota, the Rams in L.A., and the Falcons in Atlanta over the course of 2017. It is for this reason that their road to a Super Bowl could be a rough one, but there's little reason to believe their road will end today. The Panthers do not have the level of offensive weapons that New Orleans possess. Cam Newton has had to rely on his own will and athleticism to lead his team to victory in many cases. Newton, in fact, leading his team in rushing with 754 yards on the ground, and his leading receiver is Devin Funchess with only 840 yards on the season. Because of Newton's heroics on the ground in concert with a solid level of production from Jonathan Stewart and Christian McCaffrey, the Pathers' rushing attack ranks 4th in the league. The Pathers' passing offense, by contrast, ranked 28th.
The Carolina Panthers did finish the regular season with the 9th ranked defense by yards allowed and the 11th ranked defense in points allowed, but their offense is probably too one-dimensional to ultimately keep up with a Saints team that scored a combined 65 points against Carolina this season. This would be far more interesting if there were some major key injuries that figured to change the dynamic of this game in a major way, but that does not appear to be the case today--but who knows? Everything else thus far as been a total upset.
PREDICTION: SAINTS 33-24
THE BILLS ARE UP AT HALFTIME 3-0 AGAINST A JAGUARS TEAM THAT HAS YET TO FIND ANY SORT OF OFFENSIVE RHYTHM. WHERE WAS THIS JAGUARS TEAM WHEN THEY FACED THE RAVENS IN LONDON? ENJOY THE REST OF TODAY'S GAMES!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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