The Ravens Nation is proud of its team, and there's nothing that can take away the feeling of sheer triumph that surged through the hearts and minds of fans late last night. Joe Flacco tied Joe Montana for the most touchdown passes in a single post-season without an interception, Ray Lewis set an NFL record for the most tackles in a single post-season, Ed Reed tied Ronnie Lott's all time NFL record for most career playoff interceptions, and Jacoby Jones tied his own NFL record for the longest kickoff return of all time with 108 yards from the endzone. With that said, there are still those (eh EHM--Skip Bayless) who would like to blame the Ravens victory on questionable officiating or some such nonsense, and I will tell you why their claims are patently false.
The biggest gripe I heard from both the national media and the 49ers' head coach, Jim Harbaugh, was that Jimmy Smith was holding in the endzone on the 49ers' final 4th down play from the 5 yard line. The receiver that Smith was guarding became engaged with Smith and pushed off of him in an attempt to gain separation. Because of the massive push-off the referee did not throw a flag. Some might argue that the holding occurred prior to the push-off and a flag should have been thrown immediately. What they DO NOT realize is that the penalty for holding in the endzone is a safety. That would have meant that the 49ers would have been awarded only 2 points and would have still trailed the Ravens by 3. The Ravens would then boot the ball deep to the other side of the field and the 49ers would have little time and a single timeout to try to get back down the field. For this reason, the Ravens corners were actually coached to hold their receivers on the play since a flag would have yielded a desired result.
Beyond that, however, the 49ers got away with plenty of holding and pass interference earlier in the game. I recall a deep pass to Torrey Smith where Torrey was first held and then interfered with as the ball came his way. The ball fell either close to or in the endzone and a penalty on that play would have likely set up another Ravens score that would have effectively put this game out of reach. The 49ers never once got called for massive and numerous blocks in the back on kick off and punt returns, and the there was a horrendous no-call on a critical 3rd down play from about the 2 yard line where Flacco was hit violently after he had already gone out of bounds. A flag there would have given the Ravens 1st and goal from the 1 yard line and would have allowed them to run out the clock or simply go in for a touchdown to put the game out of reach. The officials did not call a single holding penalty all night despite visible jersey pulling at the line of scrimmage by the 49ers. All in all, the refs simply let a lot of things go. Any way you look at it, the Ravens were almost certainly going to win this game.
Ok, enough about the bad things that happened. Let's examine some of the GREAT things that happened in this game. Joe Flacco demonstrated an ability to drive seemingly at will on a defense that allowed the fewest points in the league during the regular season. Joe was able to do so in large part because of the athleticism displayed by a superior receiving corps. Anquan Boldin deserves a medal for his heroic, clutch plays in this post season and in the last 3 years that he has been a Raven. Joe knows that he can throw the ball in Q's direction and the sure-handed, physical receiver will likely come down with the catch. Jacoby Jones didn't make many catches this season, but the ones he made were spectacular and absolutely essential to the Ravens going 4-0 in the post-season. Beyond that, the Ravens literally would not have won a handful of games and gotten to and through the playoffs without Jacoby's 4 returns for touchdowns this season. His explosive track speed makes him absolutely invaluable to this team and he should be retained as long as he can move like that.
From a defensive standpoint, the Ravens held the 49ers without a touchdown for a majority of the game. They appeared tired and slow later in the game, but managed to hold together when it really counted--in the red zone. Ed Reed's interception and Courtney Upshaw's forced fumble both proved pivitol in halting what might have otherwise continued on to be scoring drives for the 49ers. This should give Ed Reed a good case for one final contract with the Ravens, and I sure hope they can work something out soon because there's really no replacing history's greatest free safety.
I could continue further about impressive plays and questionable calls, but the discussion won't change the ultimate outcome of last night. The Ravens won the Super Bowl and they did so in dramatic fashion. The offense put up enough points to win, but in the end, the game came down to a goal line stand by the most consistently dominant defense of the last dozen years...with #52 at the helm. You kept the faith Baltimore, and your team rewarded you for it!!! Oh, I almost forgot: Purple Nightmare went 10-1 in playoff predictions, and now improves to 17-2 all time!!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!!!
Monday, February 4, 2013
Friday, February 1, 2013
SUPER BOWL PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS!!
Well, football fans, this is it. The Super Bowl is upon us, and I couldn't be more excited. First, I must address this week's allegations that Ray Lewis consumed PEDs in the form of deer antler velvet oral spray. I understand that a large percentage of professional athletes use drugs to enhance their performance. It's not beyond the realm of possibility that Ray Lewis has, at some point, used steroids or other controlled substances. Deer antler velvet spray, however, is not a banned substance. Members of the media heard that the owner of the company in question claimed that this substance contained IGF-1 (insulin-like growth factor). According to a doctor at Johns Hopkins, however, the problem with that claim is that IGF-1 can't be consumed orally in spray form. It's a highly unstable subtance that must be carefully contained in certain conditions and then injected by the user in order to reap the benefits. In the article published in the Baltimore Sun, the doctor goes on to explain that any trace amounts of IGF-1 found in deer antler velvet would be essentially too miniscule and useless to affect muscle tissue growth or result in a positive drug test. To read the article, click on this link:
http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/baltimore-sports-blog/bal-ray-lewis-denies-using-banned-substance-during-rehab-from-injury-20130129,0,7725655.story
In other words, even if Ray Lewis DID consume the supplement in question, he wouldn't have gained the edge of IGF-1. Hopefully this will put the matter to rest and we can move passed it to more a far more important issue....THE SUPER BOWL!!!
The Ravens are once again not favored by Vegas oddsmakers going into this weekend, but that has proven totally irrelevant thus far in the playoffs, and it will likely prove totally irrelevant once again in a matter of days. The Ravens went to Denver and beat what was likely their most difficult opponent in the post-season already. The Ravens then went into Foxboro and held one of history's highest scoring teams to 13 points. The 49ers, meanwhile, beat a flawed Packers team at home in San Francisco and then fought back to edge an opponent that has won only one playoff game in the last 9 years. It should be, therefore, no surprise that I give the Ravens an edge in this game. How much of an edge I give them will depend on the following analysis of relevant statistics, personnel health, and each teams' respective style of play.
RAVENS AT 49ERS
Both the Ravens and 49ers have looked quite different in the post-season than they each did for most of the 2012 regular season. The 49ers spent the first 14 weeks of the regular season playing absolutely suffocating defense and allowed the fewest points per game of any team in the league. The Ravens, by contrast, struggled uncharacteristcally on defense for most of the season due to a rash of injuries to their defensive starters. The Ravens were forced in many situations to rely upon their offense to win games, and that offense seemed to often disappear on the road. The 49ers put up impressive offensive numbers for most of the season, but a few teams discovered serious weaknesses in the 49ers' gameplan and were able to exploit those weaknesses in spectacular fashion.
Now let's fast forward to the post-season. The Ravens defense got almost all of its starters back in relatively healthy condition, and the defense allowed only 4 offensive touchdowns in 3 playoff games that featured the league's two highest scoring teams. Meanwhile, the 49ers lost their defensive edge when star defensive lineman, Justin Smith, partially tore his triceps tendon towards the end of the regular season. Since Smith's injured his arm, the once defensively stout 49ers have allowed an astounding 28.8 points per game and also 27.5 points per game thus far in the playoffs. The 49ers, like the Ravens earlier this season, have had to rely on offensive production in order to win games since the decline of their defensive unit. The only problem is that the 49ers have likely managed high offensive production because they've only faced playoff teams with poor defenses thus far. The Ravens are currently firing on all cylinders, and they have the numbers to prove it.
The Baltimore Ravens have averaged exactly 30 points per game in this post season. During that same period, they have only allowed 19 points per game, and that was against the toughest competition they've seen all season. The Ravens have also once again demonstrated a knack for creating turnovers in the playoffs. The 49ers didn't play in the wildcard round of the playoffs as they had a bye, so we'll compare each team's statistics over the last two weeks. During that timespan, the Ravens have forced 6 turnovers (2 fumbles and 4 interceptions) while giving up only 1 (a fumble). The 49ers have done reasonably well forcing 4 turnovers (2 fumbles and 2 interceptions) but gave up 2 turnovers (1 interception and 1 fumble). The Ravens turnover ratio is 6:1 as opposed to the 49ers' 2:1 turnover ratio--the Ravens clearly have the edge here.
There's no question that the 49ers have struggled on defense in the post-season, but their offense have continued to prove potent enough to win games. The 49ers averaged 36.5 points per game in the last two weeks and put up 28 points on a Falcons defense that allowed only 17 points per game in Atlanta this season. Much of the 49ers' offensive success can be attributed to its tough running game that ranked 4th in the NFL with an average of 155.7 rushing yards per game. The 49ers have a strong offensive line with great run-blocking ability, and that paves the way for Frank Gore. Gore had over 1200 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns during the regular season. In the playoffs, Gore has continued his dominance with an average of 104.5 rushing yards per game and 3 touchdowns in the last two weeks. Gore has carried the ball a total of 43 times in the last two weeks, and stopping him will be a top priority for the Ravens.
The other top defensive priority for the Ravens will be containing Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick has incredible speed and has shown he's capable of making plays with his legs. The young quarterback had over 400 rushing yards and averaged 6.6 yards per carry during the 8 regular season games in which he started. More importantly, Kaepernick has amassed over 200 rushing yards in two playoffs games including an NFL record single game quarterback performance of 181 yards on the ground! The goal of the Ravens will be to set the edge against Kaepernick and make sure that he doesn't get outside of the Ravens defense. The Ravens will, instead, try to force Colin Kapernick to test the Ravens interior defense where he will be more vulnerable to big, devastating hits and will be less likely to extend and complete passing plays.
Possibly one of the most perplexing things I've heard and read over the last two weeks is that the 49ers are "more talented" and have "better weaponry" than the Ravens. I haven't the faintest idea of what these people are talking about though. Let's compare the two teams.
The Ravens have a better group of running backs. Ray Rice, Bernard Pierce, and Vonta Leach are simply better than Frank Gore and company. Gore is still a great back, but Ray Rice is the greatest all-purpose weapon in the NFL (let's see Frank Gore convert on 4th and 29), and leading the way for him is the league's best full back. Bernard Pierce has been particularly impressive as well and serves as a fantastic compliment to Rice. ADVANTAGE: RAVENS.
Then we have the Ravens receivers. There's really no way around it; Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin, Dennis Pitta, and Jacoby Jones make up a far more dynamic receiving corps than the 49ers possess. Randy Moss is close to useless at this point, Michael Crabtree is good but not amazing, and Vernon Davis has had a rather quiet season as most opposing teams have successfully taken him away as a threat with good gameplanning. ADVANTAGE: RAVENS
I keep reading about how great the 49ers offensive line has been this season, but the Ravens offensive line has come alive since being reshuffled to form the most dominant pass protecting unit in the playoffs. The 49ers offensive line probably is the better run-blocking team so we'll have to look at this one as a bit of a draw. ADVANTAGE: EVEN
Nothing has made me more annoyed than reading and hearing people say things such as "how are the Ravens going to stop Colin Kaepernick?"...as though he's the best quarterback the Ravens will have faced this season. Kaepernick is a talented young guy, there's no question about that, but he simply hasn't impressed me the way he has impressed the rest of America. Colin Kaepernick, as I've said numerous times before, has had the luxury of playing against teams will mediocre and poor defenses thus far in the playoffs. Joe Flacco has somehow been overlooked by the media in some capacity. He has, thus far, had one of the greatest post-seasons in NFL history and no one outside of Baltimore seems to think the 49ers should be afraid of him. He has outplayed Peyton Manning and Tom Brady and done so without throwing a single interception. He spreads the ball out to his receivers and running backs in such a fashion that torched even the highest rated defense going into the post season. Joe can make any throw on the field, and he has shown that he has total confidence in his offensive line and receiving corps. This is possibly the biggest offensive disparity in all of these comparisons. ADVANTAGE: RAVENS
On the defensive side of the ball, I would have given a large advantage to the 49ers in many areas about 6 weeks ago. Then something catastropic happened to the 49ers and something miraculous happened to the Ravens. Justin Smith tore over half way through his triceps tendon in one arm. I've spoken ad nauseum about how that negatively affected the entire 49ers defense. The 49ers no longer have a serious pass rush, and that exposes their secondary. The Ravens, on the other hand, got almost all of their defensive stars and starters back on the field healthy. Their pass rush has been strong as they've been able to pressure the two greatest quarterbacks of a generation into throwing two interceptions each. The Ravens secondary is much more talented than that of the 49ers as well. Bernard Pollard is the most physical strong safety in football, and Ed Reed is so feared that quarterbacks seldom even throw over the middle of the field against him. Corey Graham has proven a incredible aquisition, and Cary Williams has shown himself to be a solid corner and a good ball hawk after a rocky start to the regular season.
The only advantage I would give to the 49ers is in their linebacker corps, but it's not nearly as big of an advantage as people think. Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman are top notch linebackers, and there's really no question about that. Dannell Ellerbe, however, fantastic in pass coverage, and Ray Lewis can still lay out a big hit and stop the run when he needs to do so. ADVANTAGE: 49ERS
As far as the pass rush and defensive line is concerned, Terrell Suggs is back in impressive form, Paul Kruger is an absolute monster, and Courtney Upshaw is developing quite nicely, and Haloti Ngata is a beast when he has time to rest and heal his ailing knee. The 49ers had a great defensive line earlier in the season, but it's simply not up to par with the Ravens D line since Justin Smith is playing with essentially one good arm. ADVANTAGE: RAVENS
The final major matchup disparity is in the area of kicking. David Akers has struggled this season due to health reasons, and Justin Tucker has put together one of the greatest rookie seasons of a kicker in NFL history. Tucker is clutch; Akers is close to useless at this point. ADVANTAGE: RAVENS
I know this is the most important prediction I will make all season, but it's actually one of the easiest for me. Many commentators and writers predict that this game will be close, and I fully understand that there's a tendency to do so in order to respect each team involved. I, however, don't believe this will be a nail-biting squeaker. The Ravens faced much tougher competition in the Broncos and Patriots in their respective stadiums. The 49ers defense has been unimpressive for a long time now, and it has been especially unimpressive on the road. The Ravens have never lost with two weeks to prepare for a game in the Harbaugh-Flacco era, and they aren't about to start now. The 49ers are quite one dimensional on offense (despite what people may think) and their heavy reliance on their running game will make it tough for them to come back from a late game deficit against the Ravens. The Ravens will simply protect Joe Flacco too well against a broken 49ers pass rush, and the 49ers simply don't have the seconary to stop the Ravens receivers. If they double team Torrey Smith, Joe will get the ball to Pitta and Boldin all game long with the occassional big play to Jacoby Jones. The Ravens are simply too strong against teams that can't pressure Flacco, and it doesn't seem like any team can do that right now... let alone the 49ers.
MY SUPER BOWL PREDICTION: RAVENS 34-23.
This might actually be a conservative estimate. The Patriots had the highest scoring offense in the NFL this season and the Ravens held them to 13 points on the road. The 49ers may lose this by a pair of touchdowns or more, but I think an 11 point win is a good conservative estimate just in case the 49ers get some late points in garbage time. This season has been a terrifying roller coaster ride filled with giant heights, huge drops, and the occassional loop thrown in there, but the Ravens did exactly what we all hoped they'd do: they peaked at the right time. Wear your purple proudly all weekend, Baltimore! Soon we get to hear Ray lead the guys one last time when he asks them:
WHAT TIME IS IT??? GAME TIME!!!!!!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!!!!!
http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/baltimore-sports-blog/bal-ray-lewis-denies-using-banned-substance-during-rehab-from-injury-20130129,0,7725655.story
In other words, even if Ray Lewis DID consume the supplement in question, he wouldn't have gained the edge of IGF-1. Hopefully this will put the matter to rest and we can move passed it to more a far more important issue....THE SUPER BOWL!!!
The Ravens are once again not favored by Vegas oddsmakers going into this weekend, but that has proven totally irrelevant thus far in the playoffs, and it will likely prove totally irrelevant once again in a matter of days. The Ravens went to Denver and beat what was likely their most difficult opponent in the post-season already. The Ravens then went into Foxboro and held one of history's highest scoring teams to 13 points. The 49ers, meanwhile, beat a flawed Packers team at home in San Francisco and then fought back to edge an opponent that has won only one playoff game in the last 9 years. It should be, therefore, no surprise that I give the Ravens an edge in this game. How much of an edge I give them will depend on the following analysis of relevant statistics, personnel health, and each teams' respective style of play.
RAVENS AT 49ERS
Both the Ravens and 49ers have looked quite different in the post-season than they each did for most of the 2012 regular season. The 49ers spent the first 14 weeks of the regular season playing absolutely suffocating defense and allowed the fewest points per game of any team in the league. The Ravens, by contrast, struggled uncharacteristcally on defense for most of the season due to a rash of injuries to their defensive starters. The Ravens were forced in many situations to rely upon their offense to win games, and that offense seemed to often disappear on the road. The 49ers put up impressive offensive numbers for most of the season, but a few teams discovered serious weaknesses in the 49ers' gameplan and were able to exploit those weaknesses in spectacular fashion.
Now let's fast forward to the post-season. The Ravens defense got almost all of its starters back in relatively healthy condition, and the defense allowed only 4 offensive touchdowns in 3 playoff games that featured the league's two highest scoring teams. Meanwhile, the 49ers lost their defensive edge when star defensive lineman, Justin Smith, partially tore his triceps tendon towards the end of the regular season. Since Smith's injured his arm, the once defensively stout 49ers have allowed an astounding 28.8 points per game and also 27.5 points per game thus far in the playoffs. The 49ers, like the Ravens earlier this season, have had to rely on offensive production in order to win games since the decline of their defensive unit. The only problem is that the 49ers have likely managed high offensive production because they've only faced playoff teams with poor defenses thus far. The Ravens are currently firing on all cylinders, and they have the numbers to prove it.
The Baltimore Ravens have averaged exactly 30 points per game in this post season. During that same period, they have only allowed 19 points per game, and that was against the toughest competition they've seen all season. The Ravens have also once again demonstrated a knack for creating turnovers in the playoffs. The 49ers didn't play in the wildcard round of the playoffs as they had a bye, so we'll compare each team's statistics over the last two weeks. During that timespan, the Ravens have forced 6 turnovers (2 fumbles and 4 interceptions) while giving up only 1 (a fumble). The 49ers have done reasonably well forcing 4 turnovers (2 fumbles and 2 interceptions) but gave up 2 turnovers (1 interception and 1 fumble). The Ravens turnover ratio is 6:1 as opposed to the 49ers' 2:1 turnover ratio--the Ravens clearly have the edge here.
There's no question that the 49ers have struggled on defense in the post-season, but their offense have continued to prove potent enough to win games. The 49ers averaged 36.5 points per game in the last two weeks and put up 28 points on a Falcons defense that allowed only 17 points per game in Atlanta this season. Much of the 49ers' offensive success can be attributed to its tough running game that ranked 4th in the NFL with an average of 155.7 rushing yards per game. The 49ers have a strong offensive line with great run-blocking ability, and that paves the way for Frank Gore. Gore had over 1200 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns during the regular season. In the playoffs, Gore has continued his dominance with an average of 104.5 rushing yards per game and 3 touchdowns in the last two weeks. Gore has carried the ball a total of 43 times in the last two weeks, and stopping him will be a top priority for the Ravens.
The other top defensive priority for the Ravens will be containing Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick has incredible speed and has shown he's capable of making plays with his legs. The young quarterback had over 400 rushing yards and averaged 6.6 yards per carry during the 8 regular season games in which he started. More importantly, Kaepernick has amassed over 200 rushing yards in two playoffs games including an NFL record single game quarterback performance of 181 yards on the ground! The goal of the Ravens will be to set the edge against Kaepernick and make sure that he doesn't get outside of the Ravens defense. The Ravens will, instead, try to force Colin Kapernick to test the Ravens interior defense where he will be more vulnerable to big, devastating hits and will be less likely to extend and complete passing plays.
Possibly one of the most perplexing things I've heard and read over the last two weeks is that the 49ers are "more talented" and have "better weaponry" than the Ravens. I haven't the faintest idea of what these people are talking about though. Let's compare the two teams.
The Ravens have a better group of running backs. Ray Rice, Bernard Pierce, and Vonta Leach are simply better than Frank Gore and company. Gore is still a great back, but Ray Rice is the greatest all-purpose weapon in the NFL (let's see Frank Gore convert on 4th and 29), and leading the way for him is the league's best full back. Bernard Pierce has been particularly impressive as well and serves as a fantastic compliment to Rice. ADVANTAGE: RAVENS.
Then we have the Ravens receivers. There's really no way around it; Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin, Dennis Pitta, and Jacoby Jones make up a far more dynamic receiving corps than the 49ers possess. Randy Moss is close to useless at this point, Michael Crabtree is good but not amazing, and Vernon Davis has had a rather quiet season as most opposing teams have successfully taken him away as a threat with good gameplanning. ADVANTAGE: RAVENS
I keep reading about how great the 49ers offensive line has been this season, but the Ravens offensive line has come alive since being reshuffled to form the most dominant pass protecting unit in the playoffs. The 49ers offensive line probably is the better run-blocking team so we'll have to look at this one as a bit of a draw. ADVANTAGE: EVEN
Nothing has made me more annoyed than reading and hearing people say things such as "how are the Ravens going to stop Colin Kaepernick?"...as though he's the best quarterback the Ravens will have faced this season. Kaepernick is a talented young guy, there's no question about that, but he simply hasn't impressed me the way he has impressed the rest of America. Colin Kaepernick, as I've said numerous times before, has had the luxury of playing against teams will mediocre and poor defenses thus far in the playoffs. Joe Flacco has somehow been overlooked by the media in some capacity. He has, thus far, had one of the greatest post-seasons in NFL history and no one outside of Baltimore seems to think the 49ers should be afraid of him. He has outplayed Peyton Manning and Tom Brady and done so without throwing a single interception. He spreads the ball out to his receivers and running backs in such a fashion that torched even the highest rated defense going into the post season. Joe can make any throw on the field, and he has shown that he has total confidence in his offensive line and receiving corps. This is possibly the biggest offensive disparity in all of these comparisons. ADVANTAGE: RAVENS
On the defensive side of the ball, I would have given a large advantage to the 49ers in many areas about 6 weeks ago. Then something catastropic happened to the 49ers and something miraculous happened to the Ravens. Justin Smith tore over half way through his triceps tendon in one arm. I've spoken ad nauseum about how that negatively affected the entire 49ers defense. The 49ers no longer have a serious pass rush, and that exposes their secondary. The Ravens, on the other hand, got almost all of their defensive stars and starters back on the field healthy. Their pass rush has been strong as they've been able to pressure the two greatest quarterbacks of a generation into throwing two interceptions each. The Ravens secondary is much more talented than that of the 49ers as well. Bernard Pollard is the most physical strong safety in football, and Ed Reed is so feared that quarterbacks seldom even throw over the middle of the field against him. Corey Graham has proven a incredible aquisition, and Cary Williams has shown himself to be a solid corner and a good ball hawk after a rocky start to the regular season.
The only advantage I would give to the 49ers is in their linebacker corps, but it's not nearly as big of an advantage as people think. Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman are top notch linebackers, and there's really no question about that. Dannell Ellerbe, however, fantastic in pass coverage, and Ray Lewis can still lay out a big hit and stop the run when he needs to do so. ADVANTAGE: 49ERS
As far as the pass rush and defensive line is concerned, Terrell Suggs is back in impressive form, Paul Kruger is an absolute monster, and Courtney Upshaw is developing quite nicely, and Haloti Ngata is a beast when he has time to rest and heal his ailing knee. The 49ers had a great defensive line earlier in the season, but it's simply not up to par with the Ravens D line since Justin Smith is playing with essentially one good arm. ADVANTAGE: RAVENS
The final major matchup disparity is in the area of kicking. David Akers has struggled this season due to health reasons, and Justin Tucker has put together one of the greatest rookie seasons of a kicker in NFL history. Tucker is clutch; Akers is close to useless at this point. ADVANTAGE: RAVENS
I know this is the most important prediction I will make all season, but it's actually one of the easiest for me. Many commentators and writers predict that this game will be close, and I fully understand that there's a tendency to do so in order to respect each team involved. I, however, don't believe this will be a nail-biting squeaker. The Ravens faced much tougher competition in the Broncos and Patriots in their respective stadiums. The 49ers defense has been unimpressive for a long time now, and it has been especially unimpressive on the road. The Ravens have never lost with two weeks to prepare for a game in the Harbaugh-Flacco era, and they aren't about to start now. The 49ers are quite one dimensional on offense (despite what people may think) and their heavy reliance on their running game will make it tough for them to come back from a late game deficit against the Ravens. The Ravens will simply protect Joe Flacco too well against a broken 49ers pass rush, and the 49ers simply don't have the seconary to stop the Ravens receivers. If they double team Torrey Smith, Joe will get the ball to Pitta and Boldin all game long with the occassional big play to Jacoby Jones. The Ravens are simply too strong against teams that can't pressure Flacco, and it doesn't seem like any team can do that right now... let alone the 49ers.
MY SUPER BOWL PREDICTION: RAVENS 34-23.
This might actually be a conservative estimate. The Patriots had the highest scoring offense in the NFL this season and the Ravens held them to 13 points on the road. The 49ers may lose this by a pair of touchdowns or more, but I think an 11 point win is a good conservative estimate just in case the 49ers get some late points in garbage time. This season has been a terrifying roller coaster ride filled with giant heights, huge drops, and the occassional loop thrown in there, but the Ravens did exactly what we all hoped they'd do: they peaked at the right time. Wear your purple proudly all weekend, Baltimore! Soon we get to hear Ray lead the guys one last time when he asks them:
WHAT TIME IS IT??? GAME TIME!!!!!!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!!!!!
Monday, January 28, 2013
SUPER BOWL PREVIEW: KEY PLAYERS AND MATCHUPS
Members of the media and fans nationwide have spoken about Colin Kapernick and Joe Flacco when discussing the keys to the upcoming Super Bowl. Both quarterbacks have been impressive thus far in the playoffs, but there are lesser examined factors that may prove equally pivotal to the ultimate outcome of the big game. Casual football fans often base their opinion of a team on the presence of speedy, flashy, play-making skills players on a given roster, but football players, coaches, and experts know that football games are won in the trenches. A team with a superior offensive line can give a mediocre quarterback enough time to allow a relatively untalented receiver to get enough separation to make a catch against even a talented secondary. A great offensive line can open up holes so that a running back can gain yardage even if he lacks break away speed. On the other side of the ball, a dominant defensive line can collapse an opposing teams pocket, force a quarterback into making poor throws, and cover up serious deficiencies in their team's defensive secondary. Today we'll go over a pair of line personnel changes that have drastically affected the play of each Super Bowl-bound teams, and why those changes will likely play a deciding role in the upcoming game.
KEY PLAYER SPOLIGHT: JUSTIN SMITH
In week 15 of the regular season, the 49ers played the New England Patriots in Foxboro and won 42-34. It was a spectacular high scoring game, and likely gave many fans confidence in Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers as a whole. What the score doesn't tell us at first glance is what this particular game ultimately cost San Francisco in the long run. The 49ers were up 31-3 in the 3rd quarter after a blunderous first half gave Tom Brady and the Patriots a massive deficit. The second half, however, was a totally different story. The Patriots began a furious comeback that fell just short as the 49ers offense was able to score just enough to keep the Patriots down by 7 points in the end. The Patriots still manages to score 31 second half points, and 24 of those points came in the 4th quarter alone.
The question many fans should have been asking themselves at that point was how on earth the vaunted 49ers defense allowed a team to score 24 points in a single quarter. I think most fans attributed such offensive success to the fact that the 49ers were playing the highest powered offense of the regular season in its home stadium. That offense, however, was without its biggest redzone threat at the time, and was not nearly as strong as the 49ers made it appear on that night.
The real key to the 49ers' defensive meltdown was an injury to their best defensive lineman. Justin Smith tore his triceps tendon during the game, and that single injury had far-reaching effects on the rest of the defense. Justin Smith is a lot like Haloti Ngata in that he often occupies the blocks of two opposing offensive linemen, and that opens things up for the 49ers pass rushers such as Aldon Smith to get to quarterbacks with less obstacles. As a result of Justin Smith's dominant and physical presence at defensive tackle, Aldon Smith logged 19.5 sacks in just the first 13 games of the season!
As soon as Justin Smith became injured in the Patriots game, however, Aldon Smith's ability to hit quarterbacks dropped substantially. He has, in fact, not recorded a sack in a single game since week 14. The effects of Justin Smith go beyond Aldon Smith's sack total. The 49ers have not been able to put nearly as much pressure on quarterbacks, and that has exposed a the 49ers secondary as much weaker than their 4th place regular season passing yardage allowed average would suggest.
Many fans and analysts are aware of the fact that the 49ers defense has allowed a far greater amount of passing yards in recent weeks. The fact that the 49ers are favored by many of these same people would suggest that they attribute those passing defensive numbers to the high powered passing offenses that the 49ers have faced. A fact that may have been lost on these same people is that Justin Smith's injury also allows opposing teams to run the ball far more easily against the 49ers. Only one week after Justin Smith tore his triceps tendon, the 49ers faced their rivals the Seattle Seahawks. The 49ers beat the Seahawks in a defensive showdown 13-6 earlier in the regular season, but this game was far different. The 49ers defense couldn't stop the Seahawks' rushing attack, and San Francisco found itself down 24-6 at halftime. Since the 49ers couldn't stop the Seahawks from running the ball, Colin Kaepernick and the offense had far less opportunities to score, and what little opportunities that DID have were shut down by a fresh, superior Seahawks defense.
The defensive deficiencies of the 49ers defense have been at least somewhat covered up by the fact that the 49ers won both of their playoff games thus far, and any offensive flaws have been covered up by the fact that the 49ers played two teams with absolutely horrendous defenses during that time. On Sunday, however, the 49ers will be facing a well-rested team with a defense that has played better than any defense this post season and an offense that already absolutely shredded one of the top 3 defenses in the league this season. The 49ers picked the wrong time to have issues with their defensive line because the reason for the Ravens' recent offensive dominance has to do in large part with the fantastic play of the Ravens offensive line-- and that brings us to our second key lineman analysis.
KEY PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: BRYANT MCKINNEY
Almost at the same time that the 49ers defensive line became noticeably weaker with Justin Smith's injury, the Ravens offensive line improved by leaps and bounds in the area of pass protection. The Ravens offensive line struggled for much of the year to protect Joe Flacco. Michael Oher played at left tackle, but he often struggled as he simply isn't built to protect the blind side despite what Hollywood may have led the general public to believe. The Ravens offense looked downright anemic in road games for most of the regular season, and many believed that their only chance at going to the Super Bowl would be a first-round bye and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.
Just as the regular season ended, however, the Ravens' young left guard, Jah Reid, went down with an injury. The Ravens had no choice but to reshuffle the offensive line to deal with the loss. Instead of bringing in another lineman at left guard, the Ravens decided to take their starting right tackle, Kelechi Osemele, and slide him to left guard. They then moved Michael Oher back to right tackle and put Bryant McKinney in at left tackle. McKinney got his feet wet in the final reguar season game at Cincinatti, and many remarked at how poorly he played. His poor play must have been the result of a season of almost never seeing the field. After shaking off the metaphorical rust in the Cincinatti game, Bryant McKinney looked absolutely dominant in the opening round of the playoffs. McKinney wasn't simply going up against any average defensive end on each snap; he was going up against one of the best pass rushers in the NFL in Dwight Freeney. Not only did Bryant not allow a single sack, he didn't allow Freeney to even TOUCH Joe Flacco for the entire game.
Some may have attributed McKinney's performance to the Ravens playing in their home stadium, but he continued to protect Flacco just as well in the following game in Denver. With McKinney on the left side, the entire Ravens offensive line gave Flacco more than enough time to complete some of the most impressive passes of his career against a defense riddled with pro-bowlers. Elvis Dumervil and Vonn Miller combined for a single sack the entire game, and that sack was the result of Flacco holding on to the ball for what appeared to be at least 6 seconds since his receivers couldnt' get separation.
If Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis couldn't beat the Ravens offensive line, and if Vonn Miller and Elvis Dumervil had just as much trouble, we can expect the 49ers' defensive line to have little success at pressuring the red hot Ravens quarterback. Joe Flacco has appeared quite noticeably more confident in the pocket with the recent performance of his offensive line, and that has led to one of the greatest post season performances by a quarterback in NFL history. Joe Flacco is currently 3rd all time on the list of most touchdowns thrown (8) in a single post season without an interception. Flacco needs only 3 more touchdowns without a pick to tie Joe Montana, and 4 more touchdowns without an interception would put him at 1st on the list.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The 49ers demonstrated numerous times since Justin Smith tore his triceps tendon just how much they struggle defensively when the dominant defensive tackle isn't healthy. Smith has valiantly played through this injury thus far in the playoffs, but he's well aware that he could tear completely through the tendon at any moment and would be totally unable to play. Justin Smith will be operating with only on functional arm in the Super Bowl this Sunday, and that simply won't be enough to warrant a Ravens double team.
The Ravens, on the other hand, will likely run the ball early against the 49ers and force the talented 49ers linebackers to stop Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce. Forcing the 49ers to stop the Ravens running game should ultimately open up the passing game and expose a comparatively weak 49ers secondary. Expect Joe Flacco to have a good amount of success off of play-action fakes, and expect a big day from Dennis Pitta and Anquan Boldin if the 49ers use double team coverage on Torrey Smith all day.
The 49ers certainly have a good offensive line and an effective running game, so I don't expect them to be shut out in this game. Their offense's dependence on running could make a second half comeback difficult against a Ravens defense that has only allowed 4 touchdowns in this entire post season thus far. I'm not ready to make a score prediction without full statistical analysis of both teams, but the rise of the Ravens offensive line and the decline of the 49ers defensive line certainly both point to a Ravens edge this Sunday. Oh, and for anyone who has said something to the effect of "how are the Ravens going to manage to stop Colin Kaepernick??", I would like to remind them that the Ravens stopped Peyton Manning in Denver and Tom Brady in Foxboro. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are so far beyond Colin Kaepernick that it's laughable that someone would imply they'd have more trouble with the young guy than the two greatest quarterbacks of the last 15 years and arguably of all time. Only one more game to go, Ravens fans!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
KEY PLAYER SPOLIGHT: JUSTIN SMITH
In week 15 of the regular season, the 49ers played the New England Patriots in Foxboro and won 42-34. It was a spectacular high scoring game, and likely gave many fans confidence in Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers as a whole. What the score doesn't tell us at first glance is what this particular game ultimately cost San Francisco in the long run. The 49ers were up 31-3 in the 3rd quarter after a blunderous first half gave Tom Brady and the Patriots a massive deficit. The second half, however, was a totally different story. The Patriots began a furious comeback that fell just short as the 49ers offense was able to score just enough to keep the Patriots down by 7 points in the end. The Patriots still manages to score 31 second half points, and 24 of those points came in the 4th quarter alone.
The question many fans should have been asking themselves at that point was how on earth the vaunted 49ers defense allowed a team to score 24 points in a single quarter. I think most fans attributed such offensive success to the fact that the 49ers were playing the highest powered offense of the regular season in its home stadium. That offense, however, was without its biggest redzone threat at the time, and was not nearly as strong as the 49ers made it appear on that night.
The real key to the 49ers' defensive meltdown was an injury to their best defensive lineman. Justin Smith tore his triceps tendon during the game, and that single injury had far-reaching effects on the rest of the defense. Justin Smith is a lot like Haloti Ngata in that he often occupies the blocks of two opposing offensive linemen, and that opens things up for the 49ers pass rushers such as Aldon Smith to get to quarterbacks with less obstacles. As a result of Justin Smith's dominant and physical presence at defensive tackle, Aldon Smith logged 19.5 sacks in just the first 13 games of the season!
As soon as Justin Smith became injured in the Patriots game, however, Aldon Smith's ability to hit quarterbacks dropped substantially. He has, in fact, not recorded a sack in a single game since week 14. The effects of Justin Smith go beyond Aldon Smith's sack total. The 49ers have not been able to put nearly as much pressure on quarterbacks, and that has exposed a the 49ers secondary as much weaker than their 4th place regular season passing yardage allowed average would suggest.
Many fans and analysts are aware of the fact that the 49ers defense has allowed a far greater amount of passing yards in recent weeks. The fact that the 49ers are favored by many of these same people would suggest that they attribute those passing defensive numbers to the high powered passing offenses that the 49ers have faced. A fact that may have been lost on these same people is that Justin Smith's injury also allows opposing teams to run the ball far more easily against the 49ers. Only one week after Justin Smith tore his triceps tendon, the 49ers faced their rivals the Seattle Seahawks. The 49ers beat the Seahawks in a defensive showdown 13-6 earlier in the regular season, but this game was far different. The 49ers defense couldn't stop the Seahawks' rushing attack, and San Francisco found itself down 24-6 at halftime. Since the 49ers couldn't stop the Seahawks from running the ball, Colin Kaepernick and the offense had far less opportunities to score, and what little opportunities that DID have were shut down by a fresh, superior Seahawks defense.
The defensive deficiencies of the 49ers defense have been at least somewhat covered up by the fact that the 49ers won both of their playoff games thus far, and any offensive flaws have been covered up by the fact that the 49ers played two teams with absolutely horrendous defenses during that time. On Sunday, however, the 49ers will be facing a well-rested team with a defense that has played better than any defense this post season and an offense that already absolutely shredded one of the top 3 defenses in the league this season. The 49ers picked the wrong time to have issues with their defensive line because the reason for the Ravens' recent offensive dominance has to do in large part with the fantastic play of the Ravens offensive line-- and that brings us to our second key lineman analysis.
KEY PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: BRYANT MCKINNEY
Almost at the same time that the 49ers defensive line became noticeably weaker with Justin Smith's injury, the Ravens offensive line improved by leaps and bounds in the area of pass protection. The Ravens offensive line struggled for much of the year to protect Joe Flacco. Michael Oher played at left tackle, but he often struggled as he simply isn't built to protect the blind side despite what Hollywood may have led the general public to believe. The Ravens offense looked downright anemic in road games for most of the regular season, and many believed that their only chance at going to the Super Bowl would be a first-round bye and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.
Just as the regular season ended, however, the Ravens' young left guard, Jah Reid, went down with an injury. The Ravens had no choice but to reshuffle the offensive line to deal with the loss. Instead of bringing in another lineman at left guard, the Ravens decided to take their starting right tackle, Kelechi Osemele, and slide him to left guard. They then moved Michael Oher back to right tackle and put Bryant McKinney in at left tackle. McKinney got his feet wet in the final reguar season game at Cincinatti, and many remarked at how poorly he played. His poor play must have been the result of a season of almost never seeing the field. After shaking off the metaphorical rust in the Cincinatti game, Bryant McKinney looked absolutely dominant in the opening round of the playoffs. McKinney wasn't simply going up against any average defensive end on each snap; he was going up against one of the best pass rushers in the NFL in Dwight Freeney. Not only did Bryant not allow a single sack, he didn't allow Freeney to even TOUCH Joe Flacco for the entire game.
Some may have attributed McKinney's performance to the Ravens playing in their home stadium, but he continued to protect Flacco just as well in the following game in Denver. With McKinney on the left side, the entire Ravens offensive line gave Flacco more than enough time to complete some of the most impressive passes of his career against a defense riddled with pro-bowlers. Elvis Dumervil and Vonn Miller combined for a single sack the entire game, and that sack was the result of Flacco holding on to the ball for what appeared to be at least 6 seconds since his receivers couldnt' get separation.
If Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis couldn't beat the Ravens offensive line, and if Vonn Miller and Elvis Dumervil had just as much trouble, we can expect the 49ers' defensive line to have little success at pressuring the red hot Ravens quarterback. Joe Flacco has appeared quite noticeably more confident in the pocket with the recent performance of his offensive line, and that has led to one of the greatest post season performances by a quarterback in NFL history. Joe Flacco is currently 3rd all time on the list of most touchdowns thrown (8) in a single post season without an interception. Flacco needs only 3 more touchdowns without a pick to tie Joe Montana, and 4 more touchdowns without an interception would put him at 1st on the list.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The 49ers demonstrated numerous times since Justin Smith tore his triceps tendon just how much they struggle defensively when the dominant defensive tackle isn't healthy. Smith has valiantly played through this injury thus far in the playoffs, but he's well aware that he could tear completely through the tendon at any moment and would be totally unable to play. Justin Smith will be operating with only on functional arm in the Super Bowl this Sunday, and that simply won't be enough to warrant a Ravens double team.
The Ravens, on the other hand, will likely run the ball early against the 49ers and force the talented 49ers linebackers to stop Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce. Forcing the 49ers to stop the Ravens running game should ultimately open up the passing game and expose a comparatively weak 49ers secondary. Expect Joe Flacco to have a good amount of success off of play-action fakes, and expect a big day from Dennis Pitta and Anquan Boldin if the 49ers use double team coverage on Torrey Smith all day.
The 49ers certainly have a good offensive line and an effective running game, so I don't expect them to be shut out in this game. Their offense's dependence on running could make a second half comeback difficult against a Ravens defense that has only allowed 4 touchdowns in this entire post season thus far. I'm not ready to make a score prediction without full statistical analysis of both teams, but the rise of the Ravens offensive line and the decline of the 49ers defensive line certainly both point to a Ravens edge this Sunday. Oh, and for anyone who has said something to the effect of "how are the Ravens going to manage to stop Colin Kaepernick??", I would like to remind them that the Ravens stopped Peyton Manning in Denver and Tom Brady in Foxboro. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are so far beyond Colin Kaepernick that it's laughable that someone would imply they'd have more trouble with the young guy than the two greatest quarterbacks of the last 15 years and arguably of all time. Only one more game to go, Ravens fans!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Thursday, January 24, 2013
SUPER BOWL PREVIEW PART II: MOBILE QB'S UNDER THE MICROSCOPE
There has been quite a great deal of hype surrounding young, athletic, mobile quarterbacks this season. I've heard plenty of talk in the media that the read-option offense is going to be the wave of the future and that traditional pocket passers will be a thing of the past sometime in the near future. I certainly haven't bought into such talk, though, and there are good reasons as to why.
The first reason is the most obvious: a high reliance on mobile quarterbacks running the football puts the athlete at an incredible risk for season-ending or season-altering injury. Michael Vick has long been a prime example of this, but Robert Griffin III is the most recent example to show that Vick is no sort of anomally. Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick haven't suffered any major injuries this season, but it's likely only a matter of time until they do. It's not that these types of athletes aren't talented and explosive, it's just that the rules of the NFL don't protect runners. There are rules that protect quarterbacks behind the line of scrimmage, and there are rules that protect receivers, but you won't see flags thrown for helmet to helmet hits on someone who crosses the line of scrimmage with the football tucked against their body.
Safety isn't the only downside to having a quarterback that runs the ball so often. One of the things that makes many quarterbacks elite is their ability to step up into the pocket and make throws even with pressure bearing down upon them. Extremely speedy, athletic quarterbacks often get overconfident in their ability to outrun pass rushers, and will give up on throwing the ball too quickly and attempt to run for a first down. This can sometimes be successful, but it seems to hold such quarterbacks back from truly developing a pocket presence and possibly even chemistry with their receivers.
Mobility in a quarterback certainly isn't a bad thing on its own. An agile quarterback with good footwork such as Aaron Rodgers commands enough speed to run for a first down when necessary, but he also has the restraint and sound judgement to know when it's safe to run and when to simply use his athleticism to extend the play and complete a pass instead of crossing the line of scrimmage as a runner. Rodgers isn't alone in this skill set. As much as I loathe him, Ben Roethlisberger has demonstrated time and again the ability to use his mobility and judgement to get out of the pocket in order to give himself more time to complete passes downfield. Lord knows I'm no fan of Tony Romo, but he also often displays this talent.
The major difference between the Romos, Roethlisbergers, and Rodgers of the world and the Kaepernicks, Wilsons, and Griffins is that the first three men listed know they're not necessarily fast enough to outrun everyone chasing them. They know they can buy more time with a few moves, but ultimately, they're looking to get the ball into the hands of faster players downfield. Robert Griffin III and Colin Kaepernick, on the other hand, know they ARE some of the fastest men on any given field, and don't hesitate to prove it. The problem is, however, that being a faster athlete doesn't always mean one can avoid the crushing blow of a defender with a good angle and a good 150 pounds on you...just ask RG3 what it feels like to get hit by 350 pound Haloti Ngata.
The underlying reason for this rant against running quarterbacks is my own personal issue with the idea that the 49ers should be favored going into the Super Bowl. I know that the Ravens couldn't care less about whether they're favored by pundits or oddsmakers (it sounds as though they actually relish the underdog role), but my own examination of statistics and key factors leading up to this game leads me to question why people are so incredibly high on the 49ers and still doubtful of the Ravens.
I have not yet finished compiling and analyzing statistics for the upcoming Super Bowl, so please don't expect a final prediction in this post. I have, however, come across some interesting and obvious facts in the early stages of my examination of both teams, and almost all of them lead me to wonder why the Ravens aren't at least 3 point favorites in this game.
The first obvious observation is that the 49ers defense has performed quite poorly thus far in the playoffs. The 49ers defense was able to hold the Falcons offense scoreless in the second half of the NFC Championship, but that was after easily surrendering 24 first half points to Matty Ice and company. It was mostly Colin Kaepernick and the offense that allowed the 49ers to win both of the playoff games they've played thus far, but that offense was going against two defenses that were clearly ill-equipped to stop them. Regardless, the 49ers allowed an average of 27.5 points per game in this post-season, and that doesn't bode well for them against a Ravens team that has averaged 30 points per game and 33 points per game on the road. Hell, the Ravens' highest scoring game was against a Broncos team with the #3 ranked pass defense and #3 ranked run defense in the league.
One of the top defenses in the league couldn't stop the Ravens offense far away from Baltimore, and its no secret that major changes have occured within the last two months to allow for such production regardless of the venue in which the Ravens play. It's difficult to point to one major factor and say that it's the strongest reason for the Ravens recent offensive success. There are, rather, three major factors of equal importance that combined to produce such an explosive unit. The first, of course, was the firing of Cam Cameron and promotion of Jim Caldwell to offensive coordinator. Jim gets plays called more quickly and intelligently than Cam Cameron. Also, unlike with Cam, the Ravens players have faith and a good rapport with Caldwell, and gives Flacco and his targets a great deal of confidence. The second reason is the current state of the offensive line. Marshal Yanda is once again healthy, and the movement of Bryant McKinney to left tackle, Michael Oher to right tackle, and Kelechi Osemele to left guard has meant plenty of time and protection in the pocket for Joe Flacco.
That brings us to reason #3: Joe Flacco has been absolutely dominant with the football in his hands. Reasons #1 and #2 give Joe Flacco the type of circumstances that allow him to fully take advantage of his talents. With plenty of time in the pocket and better play calling, Joe Flacco is able to use his arm strength and precision to tear opposing secondaries to shreds. Play calling also helps to remind defenses that they must defend against the Ravens rushing attack as Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce combine to form a dangerous complimentary running back tandem. With weapons everywhere you look and fantastic offensive line performance and play calling, the Ravens now possess the most balanced, explosive offense in team history. They can score quickly when needed, they can go on long grinding drives to keep the clock moving, and they can get into the endzone regardless of the strength of the defense staring back at them.
The 49ers will ultimately have trouble stopping the Ravens' offense. They might be able to halt the running game early, but when the game is on the line, the Ravens protect Joe Flacco long enough for some of the NFL's speediest receivers to get open. Oh, and let's not forget that if a team tries to blanket Torrey Smith with double coverage, they leave the middle of the field wide open for Dennis Pitta and Anquan Boldin.
With all of that said in favor of the Ravens, the 49ers still do possess their own set weapons. Vernon Davis commands the greatest combination of size, speed, and strength among all NFL tight ends, and Michael Crabtree has developed into a good wideout over the last couple of years. Randy Moss still has the height and hands to make the occassional play, and let's not forget how well Frank Gore has been running as of late. The problem is that the Ravens just finished beating two other teams with better quarterbacks and far more impressive offensive weapons. The Ravens' corners shouldn't have incredible trouble with Michael Crabtree, and they were able to render Vernon Davis useless fairly easily last season. As for Randy Moss, he simply no longer possesses the speed to get behind a secondary of the Ravens' caliber, and Kaepernick may find himself on the receiving end of some big hits from Ravens pass rushers if he takes the time to attempt long throws downfield.
My ultimate Super Bowl prediction will likely boil down to matchups. I'll won't draw much from the 49ers' domination of the Packers in San Francisco because the Super Bowl isn't being held there. I'll draw more conclusions from last week's game against the Falcons because it will feature a similar dome and road environment. I have a sneaking suspicion, however, that many of my conclusions will stem from somewhat earlier games where the 49ers struggled to score. Falcons' defense, after all, struggled repeatedly to maintain sizeable leads in the second half of games.
The Ravens, on the other hand, displayed the ability to actually become better on defense after halftime. This is likely because of a combination of wisdom and experience amongst veteran Ravens defenders along with a coaching staff that knows exactly how to make the necessary adjustments to slow down virtually any offense.
Also, if you're thinking to yourself something to the effect of "well the Ravens just faced two pocket passing quarterbacks that tend to throw the ball a lot, and they haven't played a team that can pound the ball like the 49ers" you would be wrong. The Ravens just beat the 7th ranked Patriots rush offense last weekend, and had the physicality to knock one of the most league's most explosive running backs out of the game. The Ravens also faced an offense similar to the 49ers when they played the Redskins a couple of months ago. The Redskins had a better running back than Frank Gore and a better quarterback than Colin Kaepernick, and that was when the Ravens were incredibly short-staffed on defense.
The 49ers have not yet faced a team with a combination of offensive firepower and defensive physicality that the Ravens currently possess. It appears as though much of the news media still bases their opinion of the Ravens on their entire body of work during the 2012 regular season. That body of work, however, is far from reflective of their current condition, and it boggles my mind that pundits continue to doubt the Ravens despite the fact that they already beat the two teams most people thought would most likely win the Super Bowl...on the road.
Complain as I may, I'm not bitter. I simply find all of the doubt surrounding the Ravens wildly amusing. It will be even funnier to hear those same doubters either come up with excuses or admit they were wrong if the Ravens defeat the 49ers. I've preached that Ravens fans should keep faith in their team all season, but now it seems just so easy to believe in them. The Ravens have already gone FAR beyond the expectations of fans and commentators, and now it's time to win one last game to put any lingering skepticism to rest. Make sure you honor the second to last Purple Friday tomorrow.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
The first reason is the most obvious: a high reliance on mobile quarterbacks running the football puts the athlete at an incredible risk for season-ending or season-altering injury. Michael Vick has long been a prime example of this, but Robert Griffin III is the most recent example to show that Vick is no sort of anomally. Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick haven't suffered any major injuries this season, but it's likely only a matter of time until they do. It's not that these types of athletes aren't talented and explosive, it's just that the rules of the NFL don't protect runners. There are rules that protect quarterbacks behind the line of scrimmage, and there are rules that protect receivers, but you won't see flags thrown for helmet to helmet hits on someone who crosses the line of scrimmage with the football tucked against their body.
Safety isn't the only downside to having a quarterback that runs the ball so often. One of the things that makes many quarterbacks elite is their ability to step up into the pocket and make throws even with pressure bearing down upon them. Extremely speedy, athletic quarterbacks often get overconfident in their ability to outrun pass rushers, and will give up on throwing the ball too quickly and attempt to run for a first down. This can sometimes be successful, but it seems to hold such quarterbacks back from truly developing a pocket presence and possibly even chemistry with their receivers.
Mobility in a quarterback certainly isn't a bad thing on its own. An agile quarterback with good footwork such as Aaron Rodgers commands enough speed to run for a first down when necessary, but he also has the restraint and sound judgement to know when it's safe to run and when to simply use his athleticism to extend the play and complete a pass instead of crossing the line of scrimmage as a runner. Rodgers isn't alone in this skill set. As much as I loathe him, Ben Roethlisberger has demonstrated time and again the ability to use his mobility and judgement to get out of the pocket in order to give himself more time to complete passes downfield. Lord knows I'm no fan of Tony Romo, but he also often displays this talent.
The major difference between the Romos, Roethlisbergers, and Rodgers of the world and the Kaepernicks, Wilsons, and Griffins is that the first three men listed know they're not necessarily fast enough to outrun everyone chasing them. They know they can buy more time with a few moves, but ultimately, they're looking to get the ball into the hands of faster players downfield. Robert Griffin III and Colin Kaepernick, on the other hand, know they ARE some of the fastest men on any given field, and don't hesitate to prove it. The problem is, however, that being a faster athlete doesn't always mean one can avoid the crushing blow of a defender with a good angle and a good 150 pounds on you...just ask RG3 what it feels like to get hit by 350 pound Haloti Ngata.
The underlying reason for this rant against running quarterbacks is my own personal issue with the idea that the 49ers should be favored going into the Super Bowl. I know that the Ravens couldn't care less about whether they're favored by pundits or oddsmakers (it sounds as though they actually relish the underdog role), but my own examination of statistics and key factors leading up to this game leads me to question why people are so incredibly high on the 49ers and still doubtful of the Ravens.
I have not yet finished compiling and analyzing statistics for the upcoming Super Bowl, so please don't expect a final prediction in this post. I have, however, come across some interesting and obvious facts in the early stages of my examination of both teams, and almost all of them lead me to wonder why the Ravens aren't at least 3 point favorites in this game.
The first obvious observation is that the 49ers defense has performed quite poorly thus far in the playoffs. The 49ers defense was able to hold the Falcons offense scoreless in the second half of the NFC Championship, but that was after easily surrendering 24 first half points to Matty Ice and company. It was mostly Colin Kaepernick and the offense that allowed the 49ers to win both of the playoff games they've played thus far, but that offense was going against two defenses that were clearly ill-equipped to stop them. Regardless, the 49ers allowed an average of 27.5 points per game in this post-season, and that doesn't bode well for them against a Ravens team that has averaged 30 points per game and 33 points per game on the road. Hell, the Ravens' highest scoring game was against a Broncos team with the #3 ranked pass defense and #3 ranked run defense in the league.
One of the top defenses in the league couldn't stop the Ravens offense far away from Baltimore, and its no secret that major changes have occured within the last two months to allow for such production regardless of the venue in which the Ravens play. It's difficult to point to one major factor and say that it's the strongest reason for the Ravens recent offensive success. There are, rather, three major factors of equal importance that combined to produce such an explosive unit. The first, of course, was the firing of Cam Cameron and promotion of Jim Caldwell to offensive coordinator. Jim gets plays called more quickly and intelligently than Cam Cameron. Also, unlike with Cam, the Ravens players have faith and a good rapport with Caldwell, and gives Flacco and his targets a great deal of confidence. The second reason is the current state of the offensive line. Marshal Yanda is once again healthy, and the movement of Bryant McKinney to left tackle, Michael Oher to right tackle, and Kelechi Osemele to left guard has meant plenty of time and protection in the pocket for Joe Flacco.
That brings us to reason #3: Joe Flacco has been absolutely dominant with the football in his hands. Reasons #1 and #2 give Joe Flacco the type of circumstances that allow him to fully take advantage of his talents. With plenty of time in the pocket and better play calling, Joe Flacco is able to use his arm strength and precision to tear opposing secondaries to shreds. Play calling also helps to remind defenses that they must defend against the Ravens rushing attack as Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce combine to form a dangerous complimentary running back tandem. With weapons everywhere you look and fantastic offensive line performance and play calling, the Ravens now possess the most balanced, explosive offense in team history. They can score quickly when needed, they can go on long grinding drives to keep the clock moving, and they can get into the endzone regardless of the strength of the defense staring back at them.
The 49ers will ultimately have trouble stopping the Ravens' offense. They might be able to halt the running game early, but when the game is on the line, the Ravens protect Joe Flacco long enough for some of the NFL's speediest receivers to get open. Oh, and let's not forget that if a team tries to blanket Torrey Smith with double coverage, they leave the middle of the field wide open for Dennis Pitta and Anquan Boldin.
With all of that said in favor of the Ravens, the 49ers still do possess their own set weapons. Vernon Davis commands the greatest combination of size, speed, and strength among all NFL tight ends, and Michael Crabtree has developed into a good wideout over the last couple of years. Randy Moss still has the height and hands to make the occassional play, and let's not forget how well Frank Gore has been running as of late. The problem is that the Ravens just finished beating two other teams with better quarterbacks and far more impressive offensive weapons. The Ravens' corners shouldn't have incredible trouble with Michael Crabtree, and they were able to render Vernon Davis useless fairly easily last season. As for Randy Moss, he simply no longer possesses the speed to get behind a secondary of the Ravens' caliber, and Kaepernick may find himself on the receiving end of some big hits from Ravens pass rushers if he takes the time to attempt long throws downfield.
My ultimate Super Bowl prediction will likely boil down to matchups. I'll won't draw much from the 49ers' domination of the Packers in San Francisco because the Super Bowl isn't being held there. I'll draw more conclusions from last week's game against the Falcons because it will feature a similar dome and road environment. I have a sneaking suspicion, however, that many of my conclusions will stem from somewhat earlier games where the 49ers struggled to score. Falcons' defense, after all, struggled repeatedly to maintain sizeable leads in the second half of games.
The Ravens, on the other hand, displayed the ability to actually become better on defense after halftime. This is likely because of a combination of wisdom and experience amongst veteran Ravens defenders along with a coaching staff that knows exactly how to make the necessary adjustments to slow down virtually any offense.
Also, if you're thinking to yourself something to the effect of "well the Ravens just faced two pocket passing quarterbacks that tend to throw the ball a lot, and they haven't played a team that can pound the ball like the 49ers" you would be wrong. The Ravens just beat the 7th ranked Patriots rush offense last weekend, and had the physicality to knock one of the most league's most explosive running backs out of the game. The Ravens also faced an offense similar to the 49ers when they played the Redskins a couple of months ago. The Redskins had a better running back than Frank Gore and a better quarterback than Colin Kaepernick, and that was when the Ravens were incredibly short-staffed on defense.
The 49ers have not yet faced a team with a combination of offensive firepower and defensive physicality that the Ravens currently possess. It appears as though much of the news media still bases their opinion of the Ravens on their entire body of work during the 2012 regular season. That body of work, however, is far from reflective of their current condition, and it boggles my mind that pundits continue to doubt the Ravens despite the fact that they already beat the two teams most people thought would most likely win the Super Bowl...on the road.
Complain as I may, I'm not bitter. I simply find all of the doubt surrounding the Ravens wildly amusing. It will be even funnier to hear those same doubters either come up with excuses or admit they were wrong if the Ravens defeat the 49ers. I've preached that Ravens fans should keep faith in their team all season, but now it seems just so easy to believe in them. The Ravens have already gone FAR beyond the expectations of fans and commentators, and now it's time to win one last game to put any lingering skepticism to rest. Make sure you honor the second to last Purple Friday tomorrow.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Tuesday, January 22, 2013
CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND REACTION AND SUPER BOWL PREVIEW
I still haven't fully wrapped my mind around the idea that the Ravens will be going to the Super Bowl. I predicted they would, but each season in the Harbaugh-Flacco era has, thus far, ended in heartbreak from me, and it's almost as though some part of my mind simply expected my favorite team to be once again screwed by the referees or a blunderous missed field goal. This Ravens team, however, is different than those of previous years, and there's a big reason why: the 2012-2013 Ravens actually got better in the playoffs than they were during the regular season. The Ravens made a late coaching change and reshuffled their offensive line. At around the same time, just about all of the major defensive stars became healthy enough to play...and man, are they playing!
The 49ers haven't had to deal with the same number of injuries to their defensive starters as the Ravens, but their coaching staff did make a major decision that had an impact on the season. The 49er's quarterback, Alex Smith, became injured roughly half way through the season, and Colin Kaepernick became his replacement. Kaepernick impressed his teammates and coaching staff to such a degree that he became the permanent starter even after Smith once again became healthy enough to play. This was a risky decision as it could have cost the coaching staff the respect of the players for demoting a starter just because of in injury. The players, however, rallied behind the young quarterback and gave him their full support.
Fearless personnel and staffing decisions may just be what makes the Harbaugh brothers great coaches. Fans and even some players may not always agree with their decisions at first, but it's clear that both men have inherited a resolve to do what is right for their team regardless of any risk that they'll upset or annoy others. I'll be happy to see the Ravens defeat the 49ers, but I'm glad they'll be facing a tough, gritty team one more time before purple confetti falls.
RAVENS AT PATRIOTS
What a game this turned out to be. I had the Ravens winning by a touchdown, but I verbally told co-workers and friends all week that I expected the Ravens to thump a Gronkless Patriots team by 10 or more points. I saw that the Patriots struggled in the redzone against some bad teams with Gronk out in the regular season, and that ended up making the difference in a game where the Patriots had a handful of unsuccessful trips beyond the Ravens 20 yard line. Would this game have been different if Gronkowski had been in? Of course, but injuries are a part of football, and if the Ravens hadn't experienced a mountain of injuries during the regular season, it's likely they would have gone 13-3 or 14-2 and this game would have been played in Baltimore.
This was a game where I finally gained a huge amount of confidence in defensive coordinator Dean Pees. Pees made adjustments in the second half that led to a 3rd and 4th quarter shutout of a Patriots offense that scored 557 regular season points. Pees did what the Steelers did in their regular season win over the Patriots during the 2011 regular season; he kept the Ravens in mostly nickel packages and even dropped back players such as Paul Kruger into coverage. The Ravens defensive linemen were able to pressure and hit Brady at times even though they never truly sacked him. Pees' strategy was intelligent because the Patriots tend to get the ball into the hands of their receivers early near the line of scrimmage with many screen passes and short routes to keep the chains moving. This takes away the time and opportunity that opposing teams require to sack Brady. In light of the fact that most of the Patriots' passes were short, the Ravens' defensive line did a fantastic job of getting hands up to bat down and tip Brady's passes.
I must admit that I was a bit puzzled by Jim Caldwell's play calling early in the game, but it became abundantly clear soon thereafter that Caldwell had a method to what at first appeared to be madness. Caldwell at first appeared to be trying to force the issue as he ran the ball on first and second down repeatedly in the first quarter. The Patriots, after all, had a strong run defense this season. Pounding the ball up the middle early, however, opened things up for the Ravens later in the game once the ball was placed squarely in the control of Joe Flacco. In the second half of the game, Caldwell called plays that allowed Flacco to go over the middle to Torrey Smith and Dennis Pitta while finding Boldin for two spectacular touchdowns. We seldom saw those kinds of plays with Cam Cameron at the helm. As the Ravens found success in the passing game, Caldwell began to mix in running plays once more, but this time he intelligently ran numerous draw plays to take advantage of the fact that the Patriot's linebackers were often dropped back into coverage.
The most important thing I realized after the game was that the Ravens didn't NEED to worry about missing a game-winning field goal because they Ravens scored touchdowns on all 4 of their trips to the redzone. An improved offensive line has meant an incredibly precise, confident Joe Flacco who has thrown 8 touchdowns and no interceptions in the post-season. The 49ers should be worried about their upcoming matchup.
49ERS AT FALCONS
This was the first game I incorrectly predicted in the entire post season as my playoff record for 2013 is now 9-1. I reasoned that the Falcons were good enough to lead a quick game-winning drive against a team almost identical to the 49ers only a week earlier, and it appeared as though they might even do that in the last 2 minutes of the NFC Championship. A major missed pass interference call on Navarro Bowman meant the Falcons couldn't convert on 4th down and the game ended in a 49ers win.
The Falcons certainly looked dominant in the first half of the game, but their defense simply appeared poorly conditioned and equipped to handle another entire game of a mobile quarterback and strong running game. The Falcons offense, however, was mostly to blame as it failed to score in the entire second half and couldn't stay on the field long enough to give the defense time to catch its breath. Matt Ryan threw a costly interception and had an embarrassing fumble that wasn't forced by a 49ers player or even the result of a bad snap.
As for the 49ers, they stuck to exactly what they've done well for the last couple of seasons. The 49ers took advatnage of a poor Falcons run defense and unleashed Frank Gore. At times it appeared as though the Falcons defenders were standing still as Gore slipped right by them on his way into the endzone. Colin Kaepernick made some great throws after being forced out of the pocket to Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree. I was not, however, incredibly impressed with Kaepernick the way the rest of the world appeared to be. He's great for a young quarterback, but at this stage of the playoffs, I'm judging players on how they play, not how they play given the time they've been in the league. Kaepernick has only faced mediocre and poor defenses thus far in the playoffs, and his success in this game depended largely on the typically blunderous playoff performance of Matt Ryan.
With that said, Kaepernick has the arm strength and athleticism to evade pressure and make great throws to some big targets downfield. The Ravens got a taste of that kind of quarterback earlier this season with Robert Griffin III. Somehow the Falcons repeatedly allowed Vernon Davis to get wide open downfield, and that helped the 49ers go one step further than the Seahawks did a week earlier.
SUPER BOWL PREVIEW
We have the better part of two weeks until the Super Bowl, so I will have plenty more previews, analyses, and predictions in store for my readers. I simply figured it would be a good idea to get my own thought process going regarding positional matchups and each team's tendencies. This game, after all, features two teams with a lot of similarities, and it will likely require a great amount of analysis over the next couple of weeks to form a reasonable prediction of the outcome of Super Bowl 47.
As I stated earlier, the Ravens got a preview of a 49ers-style offense when they faced a Colin Kaepernick-like player in RG3. RG3 is even faster than Kaepernick with just as strong an arm. The Redskins also featured a fantastic running back who was much better than Frank Gore this season. The Ravens didn't win that game, but that had more to do with offensive mistakes and defensive injuries. If Joe Flacco had the protection of his current line and the Ravens had their current starting defense, the Ravens-Redskins game could have turned out much differently. With that said, the Ravens were able to halt the Redskins' offense in the second half, but the Ravens' offense couldn't capitalize off of their defensive success.
From a schematic standpoint, the Ravens were able to contain RG3 in the way that they'll need to contain Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick isn't great from the pocket, and the 49ers' offensive system isn't designed to get the ball into the hands of receivers quickly like that of the Patriots or Broncos. The Ravens will, therefore, have to set the edge with Kaepernick and prepare for a lot of up-the-middle running from Frank Gore.
The next two weeks will be huge for Haloti Ngata as the extended time to rest and prep for the next game will likely lead to increased performance from the giant Polynesian. Ngata has dealt with a nagging sprained knee all season and he's performed far better after periods of extended rest. The Ravens will need their defensive line to hold up against a strong 49ers offensive line if they hope to minimize Frank Gore's success.
The 49ers, on the other hand, will have to try to refrain from running Colin Kaepernick too much unless he has clear opportunities to get a first down and out of bounds safely. The Ravens have the explosive hitting power in enough of their athletes to leave a mobile quarterback battered, bruised, and limping. Fortunately for the 49ers, their backup used to be their starter, and he's more than capable of playing well enough to win games.
The 49ers know full well that they are not going up against a defense that gets exahusted and plays poorly in the second half of games. This Ravens defense has only allowed 4 offensive touchdowns in 3 playoff games against top offenses with tons of weapons. The Ravens defense has enough experience and leadership to slow down the best offenses in the league, and the Ravens offense has already gone against one of the top defenses in the league on the road in the divisional round. I realize that a lot of people are high on the 49ers because they get excited by mobile quarterbacks, but Colin Kaepernick hasn't faced a team as explosive, complete, and well coached as the Ravens yet in the playoffs. The '9ers are in for a rude awakening.
I've been telling Ravens fans to keep the faith all season, and it has paid off big time. The Ravens have no major injuries listed, and they're going to have extra time to rest and get prepared for the most important game in team history. This game isn't just about winning the big game, and it isn't just about getting Ray Lewis on final ring. It's about validation of the last dozen years of building and perfecting this team to get back to Super Bowl form. It's about once again being an underdog team with a wildly loyal fanbase that can be heard loudly even in harsh road venues (loved hearing "O!!" in during the national anthem in Foxboro). Most of all, it's about showing the world why we Ravens fans are nuts about our team year in and year out. We love big hits, interceptions, and a hard-nosed running game, but now we have a great quarterback and fantastic receiving corps to boot. I'm calling on Ravens fans everywhere to wear purple as often as possible until the Super Bowl. It's time to show our purple pride!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!!
The 49ers haven't had to deal with the same number of injuries to their defensive starters as the Ravens, but their coaching staff did make a major decision that had an impact on the season. The 49er's quarterback, Alex Smith, became injured roughly half way through the season, and Colin Kaepernick became his replacement. Kaepernick impressed his teammates and coaching staff to such a degree that he became the permanent starter even after Smith once again became healthy enough to play. This was a risky decision as it could have cost the coaching staff the respect of the players for demoting a starter just because of in injury. The players, however, rallied behind the young quarterback and gave him their full support.
Fearless personnel and staffing decisions may just be what makes the Harbaugh brothers great coaches. Fans and even some players may not always agree with their decisions at first, but it's clear that both men have inherited a resolve to do what is right for their team regardless of any risk that they'll upset or annoy others. I'll be happy to see the Ravens defeat the 49ers, but I'm glad they'll be facing a tough, gritty team one more time before purple confetti falls.
RAVENS AT PATRIOTS
What a game this turned out to be. I had the Ravens winning by a touchdown, but I verbally told co-workers and friends all week that I expected the Ravens to thump a Gronkless Patriots team by 10 or more points. I saw that the Patriots struggled in the redzone against some bad teams with Gronk out in the regular season, and that ended up making the difference in a game where the Patriots had a handful of unsuccessful trips beyond the Ravens 20 yard line. Would this game have been different if Gronkowski had been in? Of course, but injuries are a part of football, and if the Ravens hadn't experienced a mountain of injuries during the regular season, it's likely they would have gone 13-3 or 14-2 and this game would have been played in Baltimore.
This was a game where I finally gained a huge amount of confidence in defensive coordinator Dean Pees. Pees made adjustments in the second half that led to a 3rd and 4th quarter shutout of a Patriots offense that scored 557 regular season points. Pees did what the Steelers did in their regular season win over the Patriots during the 2011 regular season; he kept the Ravens in mostly nickel packages and even dropped back players such as Paul Kruger into coverage. The Ravens defensive linemen were able to pressure and hit Brady at times even though they never truly sacked him. Pees' strategy was intelligent because the Patriots tend to get the ball into the hands of their receivers early near the line of scrimmage with many screen passes and short routes to keep the chains moving. This takes away the time and opportunity that opposing teams require to sack Brady. In light of the fact that most of the Patriots' passes were short, the Ravens' defensive line did a fantastic job of getting hands up to bat down and tip Brady's passes.
I must admit that I was a bit puzzled by Jim Caldwell's play calling early in the game, but it became abundantly clear soon thereafter that Caldwell had a method to what at first appeared to be madness. Caldwell at first appeared to be trying to force the issue as he ran the ball on first and second down repeatedly in the first quarter. The Patriots, after all, had a strong run defense this season. Pounding the ball up the middle early, however, opened things up for the Ravens later in the game once the ball was placed squarely in the control of Joe Flacco. In the second half of the game, Caldwell called plays that allowed Flacco to go over the middle to Torrey Smith and Dennis Pitta while finding Boldin for two spectacular touchdowns. We seldom saw those kinds of plays with Cam Cameron at the helm. As the Ravens found success in the passing game, Caldwell began to mix in running plays once more, but this time he intelligently ran numerous draw plays to take advantage of the fact that the Patriot's linebackers were often dropped back into coverage.
The most important thing I realized after the game was that the Ravens didn't NEED to worry about missing a game-winning field goal because they Ravens scored touchdowns on all 4 of their trips to the redzone. An improved offensive line has meant an incredibly precise, confident Joe Flacco who has thrown 8 touchdowns and no interceptions in the post-season. The 49ers should be worried about their upcoming matchup.
49ERS AT FALCONS
This was the first game I incorrectly predicted in the entire post season as my playoff record for 2013 is now 9-1. I reasoned that the Falcons were good enough to lead a quick game-winning drive against a team almost identical to the 49ers only a week earlier, and it appeared as though they might even do that in the last 2 minutes of the NFC Championship. A major missed pass interference call on Navarro Bowman meant the Falcons couldn't convert on 4th down and the game ended in a 49ers win.
The Falcons certainly looked dominant in the first half of the game, but their defense simply appeared poorly conditioned and equipped to handle another entire game of a mobile quarterback and strong running game. The Falcons offense, however, was mostly to blame as it failed to score in the entire second half and couldn't stay on the field long enough to give the defense time to catch its breath. Matt Ryan threw a costly interception and had an embarrassing fumble that wasn't forced by a 49ers player or even the result of a bad snap.
As for the 49ers, they stuck to exactly what they've done well for the last couple of seasons. The 49ers took advatnage of a poor Falcons run defense and unleashed Frank Gore. At times it appeared as though the Falcons defenders were standing still as Gore slipped right by them on his way into the endzone. Colin Kaepernick made some great throws after being forced out of the pocket to Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree. I was not, however, incredibly impressed with Kaepernick the way the rest of the world appeared to be. He's great for a young quarterback, but at this stage of the playoffs, I'm judging players on how they play, not how they play given the time they've been in the league. Kaepernick has only faced mediocre and poor defenses thus far in the playoffs, and his success in this game depended largely on the typically blunderous playoff performance of Matt Ryan.
With that said, Kaepernick has the arm strength and athleticism to evade pressure and make great throws to some big targets downfield. The Ravens got a taste of that kind of quarterback earlier this season with Robert Griffin III. Somehow the Falcons repeatedly allowed Vernon Davis to get wide open downfield, and that helped the 49ers go one step further than the Seahawks did a week earlier.
SUPER BOWL PREVIEW
We have the better part of two weeks until the Super Bowl, so I will have plenty more previews, analyses, and predictions in store for my readers. I simply figured it would be a good idea to get my own thought process going regarding positional matchups and each team's tendencies. This game, after all, features two teams with a lot of similarities, and it will likely require a great amount of analysis over the next couple of weeks to form a reasonable prediction of the outcome of Super Bowl 47.
As I stated earlier, the Ravens got a preview of a 49ers-style offense when they faced a Colin Kaepernick-like player in RG3. RG3 is even faster than Kaepernick with just as strong an arm. The Redskins also featured a fantastic running back who was much better than Frank Gore this season. The Ravens didn't win that game, but that had more to do with offensive mistakes and defensive injuries. If Joe Flacco had the protection of his current line and the Ravens had their current starting defense, the Ravens-Redskins game could have turned out much differently. With that said, the Ravens were able to halt the Redskins' offense in the second half, but the Ravens' offense couldn't capitalize off of their defensive success.
From a schematic standpoint, the Ravens were able to contain RG3 in the way that they'll need to contain Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick isn't great from the pocket, and the 49ers' offensive system isn't designed to get the ball into the hands of receivers quickly like that of the Patriots or Broncos. The Ravens will, therefore, have to set the edge with Kaepernick and prepare for a lot of up-the-middle running from Frank Gore.
The next two weeks will be huge for Haloti Ngata as the extended time to rest and prep for the next game will likely lead to increased performance from the giant Polynesian. Ngata has dealt with a nagging sprained knee all season and he's performed far better after periods of extended rest. The Ravens will need their defensive line to hold up against a strong 49ers offensive line if they hope to minimize Frank Gore's success.
The 49ers, on the other hand, will have to try to refrain from running Colin Kaepernick too much unless he has clear opportunities to get a first down and out of bounds safely. The Ravens have the explosive hitting power in enough of their athletes to leave a mobile quarterback battered, bruised, and limping. Fortunately for the 49ers, their backup used to be their starter, and he's more than capable of playing well enough to win games.
The 49ers know full well that they are not going up against a defense that gets exahusted and plays poorly in the second half of games. This Ravens defense has only allowed 4 offensive touchdowns in 3 playoff games against top offenses with tons of weapons. The Ravens defense has enough experience and leadership to slow down the best offenses in the league, and the Ravens offense has already gone against one of the top defenses in the league on the road in the divisional round. I realize that a lot of people are high on the 49ers because they get excited by mobile quarterbacks, but Colin Kaepernick hasn't faced a team as explosive, complete, and well coached as the Ravens yet in the playoffs. The '9ers are in for a rude awakening.
I've been telling Ravens fans to keep the faith all season, and it has paid off big time. The Ravens have no major injuries listed, and they're going to have extra time to rest and get prepared for the most important game in team history. This game isn't just about winning the big game, and it isn't just about getting Ray Lewis on final ring. It's about validation of the last dozen years of building and perfecting this team to get back to Super Bowl form. It's about once again being an underdog team with a wildly loyal fanbase that can be heard loudly even in harsh road venues (loved hearing "O!!" in during the national anthem in Foxboro). Most of all, it's about showing the world why we Ravens fans are nuts about our team year in and year out. We love big hits, interceptions, and a hard-nosed running game, but now we have a great quarterback and fantastic receiving corps to boot. I'm calling on Ravens fans everywhere to wear purple as often as possible until the Super Bowl. It's time to show our purple pride!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!!
Friday, January 18, 2013
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION!!
This is the moment all you loyal readers have been waiting for; this is where we analyze and break down factors and statistics to gauge the probable winner of Sunday night's matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and the New England Patriots. These two teams have developed one of the most competitive rivalries in the NFL in recent years. It may not be filled with as much hatred and physical animosity as the Ravens-Steelers rivalry, but somehow specatcularly memorable plays always seem to find their way onto the field when Brady finds himself staring down Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. Probably the biggest reason this rivalry has become so big in recent years is that these teams keep meeting in the playoffs. This Sunday, in fact, will mark the 3rd playoff matchup between the Ravens and Patriots in 4 years. The Patriots have historically beaten the Ravens many more times than the Ravens have beaten the Patriots, but these teams are each 2-2 in the last 4 games they've faced one another. This game is a rematch of last season's AFC Championship where the Patriots edged the Ravens 23-20 as the Ravens failed to score on their final drive...we all know how that went.
This season, however, the Ravens got a bit of redemption as they edged the Patriots with a game-winning field goal that just barely went between the uprights as time expired. That redemption was sweet, but it means little at this moment as it has no bearing on Sunday's game. The Ravens were a different team when they last faced the Pats, and the Patriots were a different team when they last traveled to Baltimore. The rosters are mostly the same, but seemingly small differences in personnel have meant big differences in recent performance. Homefield advantage won't likely mean much as the Ravens and Patriots have each won one home and one away game in this rivalry over the course of the last 4 seasons. Games between these two teams are seldom decided by more than 6 points, so get ready for a gridiron war of epic proportions!
RAVENS AT PATRIOTS
MOMENTUM AND PERSONNEL
NFL fans and commentators often speak of how it's important to get hot going into the playoffs. They discuss how regular season records mean little compared to the health and strength of a team going into the post-season. Three of the last five Super Bowl champions won no more than 10 games in the regular season, and last year's Super Bowl winning team only went 9-7! That's not to say that teams with great regular season records don't win Super Bowls--they often do, but it's not the regular season record that gets them to the Super Bowl, it's the condition and strength of their team down the stretch.
The Patriots have, once again, put together an impressive list of wins this season. Brady and company got off to a rocky start as they lost 3 out of their first 6 games but finished the regular season winning 9 of their last 10 to secure a #2 seed in the playoffs. The Ravens regular season proved far more tumultuous. Ray and his boys got off to a hot 5-1 start, but certain aspects of the team had fans worried about their chances to make a deep playoff run despite a good record. The Ravens displayed an inability to stop the run for the first time in a LONG time, and that inability extended to weak teams as well as strong. The Ravens appeared to be a totally different team on the road, and that became abundantly apparent as the Ravens got flattened by the Texans 43-13 in week 6. To add to the Ravens' defensive issues, Lardarius Webb tore his ACL and Ray Lewis tore his triceps.
As Lewis and Webb went down, however, Suggs returned and a young talented linebacker named Dannell Ellerbe took the field to fill in for Ray as he rehabilitated his right arm. After the Houston game, the Ravens saw a return to defensive dominance as they went on a month long stretch in which they had the top defense in the league. That defensive dominance was short lived as Ellerbe and then Suggs became injured. The Ravens lost the next 3 games as Suggs and Ellerbe worked to become healthy. Most commentators regarded the Ravens' season as basically doomed, but the Purple Nightmare staff (I) was well aware of what was to come as soon as both Suggs and Ellerbe returned to the field.
Suggs and Ellerbe both saw the field once again against the New York Giants in week 16. The Ravens absolutely punished last year's Super Bowl winners and held them to a pedestrian 14 points in what quickly became a rout. The Ravens then rested their starters the following week against the Cincinatti Bengals, but they brought Bryant McKinney back out to get some reps with the second string. McKinney looked shakey at first in his first game back at left tackle, but presence in the playoffs would prove absolutely critical to the success of the team.
The Ravens manhandled the Colts in the playoffs 24-9 and kept a high scoring offense out of the endzone entirely and held two of the NFL's best pass rushers without a sack on Flacco. The Ravens then traveled to Mile High Stadium to face a Broncos team that no one said they could beat...no one, that is, except myself, Mike Golic, and a host of optimistic Ravens fans. ESPN's Ashley Fox went so far as to write a cocky, poorly thought out article stating that there was virtually no way the Ravens could beat Peyton Manning....yeah...how'd that one work out, Ash?
Equally important to the outcome of that game is the set of factors that led to the win as those factors will be crucial in our analysis of the upcoming AFC Championship game. The Ravens, once again, protected Flacco effectively against one of the best pass rushing tandems in the NFL. Elvis Dumervil and Vonn Miller managed only one sack on Flacco all game, and that sack was the result of Flacco holding on to the ball for roughly 6 seconds because of tight coverage on the Ravens wide receivers rather than poor protection. Ravens offensive tackles Bryant McKinney and Michael Oher gave Flacco enough time to connect on long passes downfield so the Ravens could score quickly and ultimately win. The Ravens successfully went on the road and beat a team that had beaten them handedly in the not so distant past, and they did so in spectacular fashion without experiencing any major injuries to their starters.
The Patriots also faced a Houston Texans team that they played and demolished not much earlier in the regular season. In this meeting, however, the Texans actually put up a bit of a fight. Unlike their regular season matchup, the Patriots had only a 4 point lead at halftime and a 10 point lead for a time in the 4th quarter. Although I never doubted that the Texans would lose, they certainly demonstrated that the Patriots are still vulnerable in their pass defense at times, and that they aren't quite the same team without Rob Gronkowski.
Rob Gronkowski broke his arm last weekend as he dove for a catch on the sidelines. Gronkowski had missed 5 games during the regular season after breaking that very same arm a couple of months ago. The Patriots' divisional round win over the Texans gave many Patriots fans comfort that Tom Brady could still spread the ball around to enough targets to beat another playoff team by a comfortable margin, but that margin became much smaller without their enormous and talented star tight end to help help continue drives late in the game and keep the ball out of the hands of opponents. On that note, we will begin our statistical analysis.
KEY STATISTICS
I heard commentators on ESPN talking about how the Patriots still maganged to score a high average of points per game without Rob Gronkowski this season. The Patriots scored an average of 35.09 points per game with Gronkowski, and 34.2 points per game without him. At first glance, there appears to be little difference in offensive production with Gronk in the game or out of it. That idea, however, is false. The average points per game stat is skewed by a couple of major outliers. Two of the five games the Patriots played during Gronkowski's 5 game absence were utter blowouts of teams falling apart at the seams. The Patriots beat the Jets on Thanksgiving in a game filled with embarrassment and calamity for Gang Green. The Jets appeared to almost literally give the ball to the Patriots at one point as running back Shonne Greene held the ball out to try to stretch for a first down and a Patriots player simply took the ball out of his hands. The second of two blowouts was against a Texans team that had only just barely beaten two of the worst teams in the NFL. Those two worst teams each scored well over 30 points on the Texans, so it's no surprise that the Patriots were able to do the same in Foxborough.
What the average points per game statistic during that Gronkless five game stretch doesn't tell you is that the Patriots only beat both the Miami Dolphins and bottom-feeding Jacksonville Jaguars 23-16. The Patriots also lost to the 49ers 41-34. Without Gronkowski, therefore, the Patriots barely slipped by two teams with a combined 8 wins. Upon Gronkowski's return, however, the Patriots promptly trounced that same Dolphins team 28-0.
We, at this point, must ask ourselves why it is that Rob Gronkowski makes such an trememdous difference for the Patriots. Gronkowski is a huge, sure-handed target at 6'6" with what appear to be some of the biggest hands in the league. Gronkowski had 11 touchdowns in the 11 regular season games he played this year. Gronkowski is nearly impossible to cover as he's simply taller and larger than just about any linebacker and defensive back. At 265 lean, solid pounds, Gronkowski is tough to tackle and often times makes fools out of defenders as he shakes them off on his way to extra yardage after contact. Gronkowski is also a strong blocking tight end who gave Terrell Suggs serious problems in last season's AFC Championship game. Gronkowski also makes the Patriots more of a passing threat in the redzone as he can win jump ball situations in the endzone when it becomes impossible to spread out opposing defenses.
Without Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots have no major star weapons to provide physical mismatches with the Ravens linebackers and defensive backs. The rest of the Patriots' major offensive weapons are in the average heigh range or below. Wes Welker is one of the greatest receivers in the last 10 years of the NFL, but he's only 5'9". Aaron Hernandez is decently sized at 245 pounds, but he's a manageable 6'1" and not at all a mismatch for the likes of Bernard Pollard or Dannell Ellerbe. The Patriots' only downfield threat, Brandon Lloyd, is 6'0" and 200 pounds. Lloyd also presents little height mismatch for any one of the Ravens corners, and hasn't performed nearly to the level that many people expected of the 2010 NFL receiving yards leader.
With all of that said, the Patriots have an added dimension to their offense this season. Their leading rusher, Steven Ridley, piled up 1263 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns in the regular season. Ridley was complimented by speedy, athletic backups Danny Woodhead and Shane Vereen. Their ability to run the football helped the Patriots put together an incredibly balanced and explosive offensive attack that put up a mild-boggling 557 points in the regular season and then another 41 points in their first playoff game. Think about that for a moment...the Patriots have scored almost 600 points this season.
It is this offensive firepower and the ability to run the football that makes this Patriots team more difficult to guard than the team the Ravens faced in last year's post-season. I've written many times this season about Brady's lightning quick release and the intricacy of the Patriots' offensive system. The Ravens, after all, didn't exactly shut down the Patriots offense in the first meeting between these two teams this season. The Ravens simply did what it took to make key stops towards the end of the game and the Ravens offense put up enough points to ultimately outscore the Patriots.
This Ravens team, however, is not the same one that the Patriots faced in week 3. Terrell Suggs did not play in that game, and the offensive line had not yet been reshuffled to its current dominant form. Lardarius Webb will not be there this week to cover Wes Welker, but the increased power of the Ravens pass rush and the addition of defensive back Corey Graham to the starting lineup will more than make up for absence of the Ravens best corner.
I could waste your time and mine by calculating the average points allowed and scored at home and on the road over the course of the season for each of these teams as many of the games that I would be plugging into each equation are irrelevant because of current differences in major intergral cogs to each team's figurative machine. I could then determine which games ARE relevant in that respect, but the sample size is simply too small in both cases that I feel as though I might infuriate a couple of good friends of mine who are Patriots fans by leaving out many impressive Patriots perfomances from the course of this season.
I am, thus, left to use a less mathematical method of determining the likely winner of this game. This game boils down to the major aforementioned factors of the health and current condition of each team. Which team has improved since the last meeting between these two teams? Well many would argue that the Patriots' defense improved as they acquired Aqib Talib to bolster a poorly performing secondary, and I certainly wouldn't argue with them on that point. The Ravens, on the other hand, have also improved defensively with the return of Terrell Suggs and the rise of Dannell Ellerbe. This was evident in the defense holding the Giants to 14 points, the Colts without a touchdown, and Peyton Manning's offense to 21 points (please note that 14 of the Broncos 35 points were scored by the Broncos special teams).
Offensively, the Patriots are now worse. Yes, their running game has improved over the course of this season, but that running game will take a hit without the Patriots' best blocking tight end. The Patriots pass offense lost its biggest, most effective target and touchdown leader. At the same time, the Ravens pass offense has come alive as the Ravens newly reshuffled line has been able to keep flacco upright and confident enough to step up into the pocket to launch deep balls to his speedy targets. It must be mentioned that Flacco put up a monster performance against one of the league's top defenses last weekend, and the Patriots pass defense is worse than the Broncos pass defense by quite a substantial margin. The Patriots pass defense ranked 29th in the league this season, while the Broncos pass defense ranked 3rd. Aqib Talib is better than anything the Patriots had earlier in the year, but he is certainly not better than the pro bowl cornerback, Champ Bailey, that Torrey Smith so gracefully embarrassed last weekend.
If the Patriots believe they'll render Torrey Smith ineffective by putting him in double coverage all night, they'll find themselves being methodically taken apart by Anquan Boldin, Dennis Pitta, Ray Rice and occassionally Ed Dickson, Jacoby Jones, and even Vonta Leach. The key is Flacco's protection and it all boils right back down to Bryant McKinney's return at left tackle.
FINAL THOUGHTS
This post is unquestionably slanted in favor of the Ravens. I am a Ravens fan, and if you didn't know that already, then I'm afraid there's little hope for you. The Patriots are a great football team, and they will undoubtedly make this a tough game for the Ravens. A big play or two on the part of either team could blow this game wide open. I simply can't ignore, however, the dominance the Ravens have displayed in their two playoff games thus far. The Ravens beat up on a decent but clearly flawed Colts team, and scored seemingly at will in one of the NFL's harshest environments against one of the NFL's top defenses. Flacco's previous inconsistent nature stemmed from the Ravens' inconsistent ability to protect the man. The Patriots, however, didn't sack Flacco once in the Ravens' week 3 victory, and it will be even harder to get to him this weekend.
On the other hand, the Patriots will have a harder time protecting Brady than they did last week against the Texans or in their first meeting with the Ravens this season. Paul Kruger has stepped up to become one of the leagues best pass rushers in the second half of this season, and Terrell Suggs was on fire with 10 tackles and 2 sacks on Peyton Manning last weekend despite his recent injury.
If the Patriots allowed the Texans to score so furiously in the 4th quarter, then they're going to have a tough day against a team that features the best deep passing game in the league and the only running back to rush for over 100 yards on the Patriots run defense all season. Oh...and complimentary running back Bernard Pierce is once again healthy and ready to add to the Ravens ground attack.
To put it simply, the Patriots were a better team than the Ravens for the vast majority of this season. They consistently dismantled teams and successully stopped the run week in and week out. The Ravens, however, have made too many adjustments and improvements in time for the playoffs and are the strongest team left at this point. Their offense and defense have now shown that they both travel and played well enough to win in the playoffs against a team that many people said was a lock to go to the Super Bowl. On top of ALL of that, Ray Lewis is back and playing his best football of the year with 30 tackles in only 2 post-season games. I had faith that the Ravens were strong enough to take down the Broncos, and I definitely have faith that they're more than strong enough to take down a Gronkless Patriots team. It'll be a great game and most likely a fight to the bitter end, but I truly believe Ray Lewis will be back after this weekend for one final game.
MY PREDICTION: RAVENS 34-27.
This is a game that will likely be remembered for a long time regardless of the outcome. I can't say that I'm a fan of Tom Brady, but I have the utmost respect for the consistency with which he and Bill Belichick have dominated the last decade of NFL football. This game features everything that true football fans love in a great championship rivarly game. We'll see big hits, long runs, spectacular passes, and equally spectactular catches. We'll see some of the greatest leaders in NFL history squaring off for one last time, and we'll see the energy and explosiveness of the talented young players on each team that will ultimately take their respective places. The Ravens had a daunting path to the Super Bowl going into the playoffs as they had to go against the Colts, go through the Denver, and will soon have to face the Patriots in Foxboro...but I wouldn't have it any other way. Only one last thing to say:
WHAT TIME IS IT?!?! GAME TIME!!!!!!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
This season, however, the Ravens got a bit of redemption as they edged the Patriots with a game-winning field goal that just barely went between the uprights as time expired. That redemption was sweet, but it means little at this moment as it has no bearing on Sunday's game. The Ravens were a different team when they last faced the Pats, and the Patriots were a different team when they last traveled to Baltimore. The rosters are mostly the same, but seemingly small differences in personnel have meant big differences in recent performance. Homefield advantage won't likely mean much as the Ravens and Patriots have each won one home and one away game in this rivalry over the course of the last 4 seasons. Games between these two teams are seldom decided by more than 6 points, so get ready for a gridiron war of epic proportions!
RAVENS AT PATRIOTS
MOMENTUM AND PERSONNEL
NFL fans and commentators often speak of how it's important to get hot going into the playoffs. They discuss how regular season records mean little compared to the health and strength of a team going into the post-season. Three of the last five Super Bowl champions won no more than 10 games in the regular season, and last year's Super Bowl winning team only went 9-7! That's not to say that teams with great regular season records don't win Super Bowls--they often do, but it's not the regular season record that gets them to the Super Bowl, it's the condition and strength of their team down the stretch.
The Patriots have, once again, put together an impressive list of wins this season. Brady and company got off to a rocky start as they lost 3 out of their first 6 games but finished the regular season winning 9 of their last 10 to secure a #2 seed in the playoffs. The Ravens regular season proved far more tumultuous. Ray and his boys got off to a hot 5-1 start, but certain aspects of the team had fans worried about their chances to make a deep playoff run despite a good record. The Ravens displayed an inability to stop the run for the first time in a LONG time, and that inability extended to weak teams as well as strong. The Ravens appeared to be a totally different team on the road, and that became abundantly apparent as the Ravens got flattened by the Texans 43-13 in week 6. To add to the Ravens' defensive issues, Lardarius Webb tore his ACL and Ray Lewis tore his triceps.
As Lewis and Webb went down, however, Suggs returned and a young talented linebacker named Dannell Ellerbe took the field to fill in for Ray as he rehabilitated his right arm. After the Houston game, the Ravens saw a return to defensive dominance as they went on a month long stretch in which they had the top defense in the league. That defensive dominance was short lived as Ellerbe and then Suggs became injured. The Ravens lost the next 3 games as Suggs and Ellerbe worked to become healthy. Most commentators regarded the Ravens' season as basically doomed, but the Purple Nightmare staff (I) was well aware of what was to come as soon as both Suggs and Ellerbe returned to the field.
Suggs and Ellerbe both saw the field once again against the New York Giants in week 16. The Ravens absolutely punished last year's Super Bowl winners and held them to a pedestrian 14 points in what quickly became a rout. The Ravens then rested their starters the following week against the Cincinatti Bengals, but they brought Bryant McKinney back out to get some reps with the second string. McKinney looked shakey at first in his first game back at left tackle, but presence in the playoffs would prove absolutely critical to the success of the team.
The Ravens manhandled the Colts in the playoffs 24-9 and kept a high scoring offense out of the endzone entirely and held two of the NFL's best pass rushers without a sack on Flacco. The Ravens then traveled to Mile High Stadium to face a Broncos team that no one said they could beat...no one, that is, except myself, Mike Golic, and a host of optimistic Ravens fans. ESPN's Ashley Fox went so far as to write a cocky, poorly thought out article stating that there was virtually no way the Ravens could beat Peyton Manning....yeah...how'd that one work out, Ash?
Equally important to the outcome of that game is the set of factors that led to the win as those factors will be crucial in our analysis of the upcoming AFC Championship game. The Ravens, once again, protected Flacco effectively against one of the best pass rushing tandems in the NFL. Elvis Dumervil and Vonn Miller managed only one sack on Flacco all game, and that sack was the result of Flacco holding on to the ball for roughly 6 seconds because of tight coverage on the Ravens wide receivers rather than poor protection. Ravens offensive tackles Bryant McKinney and Michael Oher gave Flacco enough time to connect on long passes downfield so the Ravens could score quickly and ultimately win. The Ravens successfully went on the road and beat a team that had beaten them handedly in the not so distant past, and they did so in spectacular fashion without experiencing any major injuries to their starters.
The Patriots also faced a Houston Texans team that they played and demolished not much earlier in the regular season. In this meeting, however, the Texans actually put up a bit of a fight. Unlike their regular season matchup, the Patriots had only a 4 point lead at halftime and a 10 point lead for a time in the 4th quarter. Although I never doubted that the Texans would lose, they certainly demonstrated that the Patriots are still vulnerable in their pass defense at times, and that they aren't quite the same team without Rob Gronkowski.
Rob Gronkowski broke his arm last weekend as he dove for a catch on the sidelines. Gronkowski had missed 5 games during the regular season after breaking that very same arm a couple of months ago. The Patriots' divisional round win over the Texans gave many Patriots fans comfort that Tom Brady could still spread the ball around to enough targets to beat another playoff team by a comfortable margin, but that margin became much smaller without their enormous and talented star tight end to help help continue drives late in the game and keep the ball out of the hands of opponents. On that note, we will begin our statistical analysis.
KEY STATISTICS
I heard commentators on ESPN talking about how the Patriots still maganged to score a high average of points per game without Rob Gronkowski this season. The Patriots scored an average of 35.09 points per game with Gronkowski, and 34.2 points per game without him. At first glance, there appears to be little difference in offensive production with Gronk in the game or out of it. That idea, however, is false. The average points per game stat is skewed by a couple of major outliers. Two of the five games the Patriots played during Gronkowski's 5 game absence were utter blowouts of teams falling apart at the seams. The Patriots beat the Jets on Thanksgiving in a game filled with embarrassment and calamity for Gang Green. The Jets appeared to almost literally give the ball to the Patriots at one point as running back Shonne Greene held the ball out to try to stretch for a first down and a Patriots player simply took the ball out of his hands. The second of two blowouts was against a Texans team that had only just barely beaten two of the worst teams in the NFL. Those two worst teams each scored well over 30 points on the Texans, so it's no surprise that the Patriots were able to do the same in Foxborough.
What the average points per game statistic during that Gronkless five game stretch doesn't tell you is that the Patriots only beat both the Miami Dolphins and bottom-feeding Jacksonville Jaguars 23-16. The Patriots also lost to the 49ers 41-34. Without Gronkowski, therefore, the Patriots barely slipped by two teams with a combined 8 wins. Upon Gronkowski's return, however, the Patriots promptly trounced that same Dolphins team 28-0.
We, at this point, must ask ourselves why it is that Rob Gronkowski makes such an trememdous difference for the Patriots. Gronkowski is a huge, sure-handed target at 6'6" with what appear to be some of the biggest hands in the league. Gronkowski had 11 touchdowns in the 11 regular season games he played this year. Gronkowski is nearly impossible to cover as he's simply taller and larger than just about any linebacker and defensive back. At 265 lean, solid pounds, Gronkowski is tough to tackle and often times makes fools out of defenders as he shakes them off on his way to extra yardage after contact. Gronkowski is also a strong blocking tight end who gave Terrell Suggs serious problems in last season's AFC Championship game. Gronkowski also makes the Patriots more of a passing threat in the redzone as he can win jump ball situations in the endzone when it becomes impossible to spread out opposing defenses.
Without Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots have no major star weapons to provide physical mismatches with the Ravens linebackers and defensive backs. The rest of the Patriots' major offensive weapons are in the average heigh range or below. Wes Welker is one of the greatest receivers in the last 10 years of the NFL, but he's only 5'9". Aaron Hernandez is decently sized at 245 pounds, but he's a manageable 6'1" and not at all a mismatch for the likes of Bernard Pollard or Dannell Ellerbe. The Patriots' only downfield threat, Brandon Lloyd, is 6'0" and 200 pounds. Lloyd also presents little height mismatch for any one of the Ravens corners, and hasn't performed nearly to the level that many people expected of the 2010 NFL receiving yards leader.
With all of that said, the Patriots have an added dimension to their offense this season. Their leading rusher, Steven Ridley, piled up 1263 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns in the regular season. Ridley was complimented by speedy, athletic backups Danny Woodhead and Shane Vereen. Their ability to run the football helped the Patriots put together an incredibly balanced and explosive offensive attack that put up a mild-boggling 557 points in the regular season and then another 41 points in their first playoff game. Think about that for a moment...the Patriots have scored almost 600 points this season.
It is this offensive firepower and the ability to run the football that makes this Patriots team more difficult to guard than the team the Ravens faced in last year's post-season. I've written many times this season about Brady's lightning quick release and the intricacy of the Patriots' offensive system. The Ravens, after all, didn't exactly shut down the Patriots offense in the first meeting between these two teams this season. The Ravens simply did what it took to make key stops towards the end of the game and the Ravens offense put up enough points to ultimately outscore the Patriots.
This Ravens team, however, is not the same one that the Patriots faced in week 3. Terrell Suggs did not play in that game, and the offensive line had not yet been reshuffled to its current dominant form. Lardarius Webb will not be there this week to cover Wes Welker, but the increased power of the Ravens pass rush and the addition of defensive back Corey Graham to the starting lineup will more than make up for absence of the Ravens best corner.
I could waste your time and mine by calculating the average points allowed and scored at home and on the road over the course of the season for each of these teams as many of the games that I would be plugging into each equation are irrelevant because of current differences in major intergral cogs to each team's figurative machine. I could then determine which games ARE relevant in that respect, but the sample size is simply too small in both cases that I feel as though I might infuriate a couple of good friends of mine who are Patriots fans by leaving out many impressive Patriots perfomances from the course of this season.
I am, thus, left to use a less mathematical method of determining the likely winner of this game. This game boils down to the major aforementioned factors of the health and current condition of each team. Which team has improved since the last meeting between these two teams? Well many would argue that the Patriots' defense improved as they acquired Aqib Talib to bolster a poorly performing secondary, and I certainly wouldn't argue with them on that point. The Ravens, on the other hand, have also improved defensively with the return of Terrell Suggs and the rise of Dannell Ellerbe. This was evident in the defense holding the Giants to 14 points, the Colts without a touchdown, and Peyton Manning's offense to 21 points (please note that 14 of the Broncos 35 points were scored by the Broncos special teams).
Offensively, the Patriots are now worse. Yes, their running game has improved over the course of this season, but that running game will take a hit without the Patriots' best blocking tight end. The Patriots pass offense lost its biggest, most effective target and touchdown leader. At the same time, the Ravens pass offense has come alive as the Ravens newly reshuffled line has been able to keep flacco upright and confident enough to step up into the pocket to launch deep balls to his speedy targets. It must be mentioned that Flacco put up a monster performance against one of the league's top defenses last weekend, and the Patriots pass defense is worse than the Broncos pass defense by quite a substantial margin. The Patriots pass defense ranked 29th in the league this season, while the Broncos pass defense ranked 3rd. Aqib Talib is better than anything the Patriots had earlier in the year, but he is certainly not better than the pro bowl cornerback, Champ Bailey, that Torrey Smith so gracefully embarrassed last weekend.
If the Patriots believe they'll render Torrey Smith ineffective by putting him in double coverage all night, they'll find themselves being methodically taken apart by Anquan Boldin, Dennis Pitta, Ray Rice and occassionally Ed Dickson, Jacoby Jones, and even Vonta Leach. The key is Flacco's protection and it all boils right back down to Bryant McKinney's return at left tackle.
FINAL THOUGHTS
This post is unquestionably slanted in favor of the Ravens. I am a Ravens fan, and if you didn't know that already, then I'm afraid there's little hope for you. The Patriots are a great football team, and they will undoubtedly make this a tough game for the Ravens. A big play or two on the part of either team could blow this game wide open. I simply can't ignore, however, the dominance the Ravens have displayed in their two playoff games thus far. The Ravens beat up on a decent but clearly flawed Colts team, and scored seemingly at will in one of the NFL's harshest environments against one of the NFL's top defenses. Flacco's previous inconsistent nature stemmed from the Ravens' inconsistent ability to protect the man. The Patriots, however, didn't sack Flacco once in the Ravens' week 3 victory, and it will be even harder to get to him this weekend.
On the other hand, the Patriots will have a harder time protecting Brady than they did last week against the Texans or in their first meeting with the Ravens this season. Paul Kruger has stepped up to become one of the leagues best pass rushers in the second half of this season, and Terrell Suggs was on fire with 10 tackles and 2 sacks on Peyton Manning last weekend despite his recent injury.
If the Patriots allowed the Texans to score so furiously in the 4th quarter, then they're going to have a tough day against a team that features the best deep passing game in the league and the only running back to rush for over 100 yards on the Patriots run defense all season. Oh...and complimentary running back Bernard Pierce is once again healthy and ready to add to the Ravens ground attack.
To put it simply, the Patriots were a better team than the Ravens for the vast majority of this season. They consistently dismantled teams and successully stopped the run week in and week out. The Ravens, however, have made too many adjustments and improvements in time for the playoffs and are the strongest team left at this point. Their offense and defense have now shown that they both travel and played well enough to win in the playoffs against a team that many people said was a lock to go to the Super Bowl. On top of ALL of that, Ray Lewis is back and playing his best football of the year with 30 tackles in only 2 post-season games. I had faith that the Ravens were strong enough to take down the Broncos, and I definitely have faith that they're more than strong enough to take down a Gronkless Patriots team. It'll be a great game and most likely a fight to the bitter end, but I truly believe Ray Lewis will be back after this weekend for one final game.
MY PREDICTION: RAVENS 34-27.
This is a game that will likely be remembered for a long time regardless of the outcome. I can't say that I'm a fan of Tom Brady, but I have the utmost respect for the consistency with which he and Bill Belichick have dominated the last decade of NFL football. This game features everything that true football fans love in a great championship rivarly game. We'll see big hits, long runs, spectacular passes, and equally spectactular catches. We'll see some of the greatest leaders in NFL history squaring off for one last time, and we'll see the energy and explosiveness of the talented young players on each team that will ultimately take their respective places. The Ravens had a daunting path to the Super Bowl going into the playoffs as they had to go against the Colts, go through the Denver, and will soon have to face the Patriots in Foxboro...but I wouldn't have it any other way. Only one last thing to say:
WHAT TIME IS IT?!?! GAME TIME!!!!!!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Thursday, January 17, 2013
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
I'm beginning to write this blog post without any idea of which team to pick to win the NFC Championship. Unlike most people I've talked to, I don't believe the 49ers' dominant home win over the Packers is evidence that they have a clear-cut advantage going into this Sunday's game in Atlanta. Yes, Colin Kaepernick's rushing yardage was the most by any quarterback in a single game in NFL history, but it was against Packers team with horrible road defense this season. Besides, the 49ers already beat the Packers in Green bay earlier in the season, so it's no surprise that the 49ers would win quite handedly against the same team in San Francisco. The Falcons did not look particularly dominant against the Seahawks as they blew a 20-0 lead at the half to go down by a point with roughly half a minute left in the 4th quarter. Matt Ryan was able to drive his team down the field with 30 seconds and two timeouts left to set up a game-winning field goal, but I doubt the a 2 point win in their own dome was enough to thoroughly impress anyone.
The Falcons, nevertheless, have demonstrated an ability to win many games this season by slim margins. It may be that they're not a great team, or it may be that they're simply a cautious team that does just enough to win one way or another. Over the course of this season the Falcons beat the Broncos 27-21, the Panthers 30-28, the Redskins 24-17, the Raiders 23-20, the Cowboys 19-13, the Cardinals 23-19, the Buccaneers 24-23, and most recently beat the Seahawks 30-28. Not all of those teams were particularly impressive this season, but two of them made the playoffs. In the NFL, it's wins and losses that count the most and not margins of victory. For the sake of making predictions, however, margins of victory absolutely need to be taken into a account. Let's take a look at what the statistics for both teams say about their respective chances at victory this weekend.
49ERS AT FALCONS
KEY STATISTICS
One thing that does bode well for the Falcons is that they just finished beating a Seahawks team that is incredibly similar to the 49ers. The Seahawks had one of the best defenses in the league this year with a hard pounding running game and a mobile young quarterback. The Seahawks and 49ers are also similar in that they both struggled on the road at times this season. Three out of four of the 49er's losses came on the road, and most of their road wins were against teams with horrible records. It is for this reason that I believe the Falcons should not be counted out of this game, though I certainly am not particularly impressed with them.
Homefield advantage certainly isn't the only factor in determining this game, but it's a good point to begin our analysis. The Falcons' homefield advantage in the Georgia Dome during the regular season has been impressive for years now as they've only lost 6 home games in the last 3 seasons. Their only real losses this season were on the road against the Saints and Panthers. They lost their final game of the season at home, but the Falcons had already clinched a #1 seed in the playoffs and had no serious motivation to win. As I mentioned in last week's Falcons-Seahawks prediction, the Falcons offense doesn't perform significantly better at home than on the road, but the Falcons defense gets an incredible boost from home crowd noise in the Georgia Dome. The 49ers offense also doesn't perform better at home on average than it does on the road, but the 49ers defense is much better in Candlestick Park for presumably the same reason of home crowd noise advantage.
The 49ers won't have their home crowd in the Georgia Dome, and that could be a huge problem when facing a team that has impressive offensive weapons such as Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, Julio Jones, Jacquizz Rogers, and Michael Turner. Just as a reminder, the Falcons allowed only 17 points per game in the regular season at home (that number increases to 18.22 if you include last weekend's game). The 49ers defense allowed an average of 20.25 points per game on the road this season and that means they allowed roughly a touchdown more per game on the road than at home.
When looking at the 49ers offense, however, analyzing a full season of statistics is meaningless as their current starting quarterback only actually played for the second half of the regular season. It is for this reason that we'll use only games in which Colin Kaepernick started to take offensive production averages. The Kaepernick-led 49ers averaged 24.5 points on the road this season. This statistic is a tad misleading because at no time did the 49ers score anywhere near 24.5 points on the road with Kaepernick under center. During these four road games, the 49ers scored 31 points against the Saints, 13 points in a loss to the Rams, 41 points in surprising a road win against the Patriots, and 13 points in a blowout loss to the Seahawks. This shows that the 49ers are either red hot or ice cold on the road with Colin Kaepernick starting. This is good, though, as it shows us which types of teams create problems for Kaepernick and which he seems to be able to dominate on the road.
Kaepernick started in his first road game in New Orleans earlier this season. The Saints endured so much offseason turmoil that it's no surprise they finished with a losing record. Nevertheless, the Saints were still a dangerous team at times in their own stadium this season. A 31-21 score would indicate a strong offensive performance against a poor Saints defense, but that simply wasn't the case as 14 of the 49ers' 31 points came off of interceptions returned for touchdowns. Kaepernick threw for one touchdown and ran for another, and David Akers kicked a field goal for the game's final score. The 49ers, thus, relied on defensive touchdowns to win the game.
Kaepernick's next road game was a 16-13 loss to the Rams. Kaepernick threw for no touchdowns, and the 49ers' lone touchdown came from a 1 yard goaline rush by Frank Gore. The Rams sacked Kaepernick 3 times and held him to 208 passing yards. The 49ers' next road game turned out quite differently. The 49ers faced the Patriots in Foxboro, and outlasted the Patriots in a 41-34 thriller. Tom Brady threw for 443 yards and the Patriots went on a 28 point comeback, but that comeback fell short as the Patriots simply ran out of time to attempt to score one more touchdown that would have tied the game. Despite impressive passing yardage, Brady threw for only 1 touchdown, ran in another, and threw 2 interceptions. The 49ers forced a total of 4 turnovers including the two aforementioned interceptions and 2 fumbles. The 49ers also sacked Brady 3 times, while the Patriots only sacked Kaepernick once.
The 49ers' final road game was one that they'd probably like to forget. On a cold and wet night in Seattle, the Seahawks destroyed the 49ers in almost every way imaginable. The Seahawks returned a blocked field goal for a touchdown, Russell Wilson threw for 4 touchdowns, and Marshawn Lynch rushed for a touchdown. Colin Kaepernick passed for 231 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception.
The major common theme in the 49ers' road wins is that the 49ers defense forces a lot of turnovers and gives Colin Kaepernick and his offense good field position and lots of opportunities to score. The major common theme in the 49ers' road wins is that the defense fails to force a large number of turnovers and Colin Kaepernick simply isn't dynamic enough to complete enough long drives to win games. There is an interesting similarity between the two teams the 49ers beat on the road: both teams were pass-first offenses with poor pass defenses. The two teams that the 49ers lost to on the road had at least decent pass defenses. The Rams were a middle of the pack team in terms of pass yards allowed per game, but they produced a good pass rush and sacked the 49ers' quarterback 3 times. The Seahawks only sacked Kaepernick once, but they possesed a great secondary that allowed few passing yards.
I know this is a long drawn out analysis, but all of this information is key to an accurate prediction in this game, so please bear with me just a little bit longer. Now must decide what these road wins and losses mean when facing the Falcons. The Falcons certainly resemble the Saints and Patriots a lot more than they resemble the Seahawks and Rams as Atlanta possesses the 6th ranked pass and only the 23rd ranked pass defense. The Falcons don't typically fare much better stopping the run as they ranked 21st in run defense during the regular season. These rankings, however, fail to take into account the fact that the Falcons ranked 5th in total points allowed during the regular season. The Falcons displayed a fantasic ability to keep the Seahawks out of the endzone in the first half of last weekend's divisional matchup.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The vast majority of NFL fans seem to be sold on Colin Kaepernick after his electric performance against the Packers in San Francisco last week. There's no denying his talent as he ran for 180 rushing yards and outplayed one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. The problem is that the Packers still managed to score 31 points on the 49ers' defense, and that signals to me that the 49ers' defense is simply not the same with an injured Justin Smith. Smith is playing through a partially torn triceps, and that's not something a defensive lineman can play through and still be a major factor. If the 49ers defense allowed 31 points at home after a bye week, then I can't imagine they'll be any less pourous against an equally high-octane Falcons' passing attack in Atlanta. Matt Ryan won his first playoff game last week against arguably the best secondary in the NFL and he did so without ever being sacked. Like the 49ers will be doing this weekend, the Seahawks were not playing with a fully healthy defensive line as their best pass rusher, Chris Clemons, was out with a torn ACL. Matt Ryan showed he was able to overcome his two interceptions to lead a final scoring drive last week. Matt Ryan may have only won a single playoff game in his career, but he's about to win another, and this won will send him to the Superbowl. I know everyone is picking the 49ers in this one, but the Falcons' defense is simply too good in the Georgia Dome, and Matt Ryan can pass on even elite secondaries. Kaepernick is talented and athletic, but he hasn't shown the ability to lead a comeback win on the road against a playoff-caliber team.
MY PREDICTION: FALCONS 33-27
The Falcons, nevertheless, have demonstrated an ability to win many games this season by slim margins. It may be that they're not a great team, or it may be that they're simply a cautious team that does just enough to win one way or another. Over the course of this season the Falcons beat the Broncos 27-21, the Panthers 30-28, the Redskins 24-17, the Raiders 23-20, the Cowboys 19-13, the Cardinals 23-19, the Buccaneers 24-23, and most recently beat the Seahawks 30-28. Not all of those teams were particularly impressive this season, but two of them made the playoffs. In the NFL, it's wins and losses that count the most and not margins of victory. For the sake of making predictions, however, margins of victory absolutely need to be taken into a account. Let's take a look at what the statistics for both teams say about their respective chances at victory this weekend.
49ERS AT FALCONS
KEY STATISTICS
One thing that does bode well for the Falcons is that they just finished beating a Seahawks team that is incredibly similar to the 49ers. The Seahawks had one of the best defenses in the league this year with a hard pounding running game and a mobile young quarterback. The Seahawks and 49ers are also similar in that they both struggled on the road at times this season. Three out of four of the 49er's losses came on the road, and most of their road wins were against teams with horrible records. It is for this reason that I believe the Falcons should not be counted out of this game, though I certainly am not particularly impressed with them.
Homefield advantage certainly isn't the only factor in determining this game, but it's a good point to begin our analysis. The Falcons' homefield advantage in the Georgia Dome during the regular season has been impressive for years now as they've only lost 6 home games in the last 3 seasons. Their only real losses this season were on the road against the Saints and Panthers. They lost their final game of the season at home, but the Falcons had already clinched a #1 seed in the playoffs and had no serious motivation to win. As I mentioned in last week's Falcons-Seahawks prediction, the Falcons offense doesn't perform significantly better at home than on the road, but the Falcons defense gets an incredible boost from home crowd noise in the Georgia Dome. The 49ers offense also doesn't perform better at home on average than it does on the road, but the 49ers defense is much better in Candlestick Park for presumably the same reason of home crowd noise advantage.
The 49ers won't have their home crowd in the Georgia Dome, and that could be a huge problem when facing a team that has impressive offensive weapons such as Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, Julio Jones, Jacquizz Rogers, and Michael Turner. Just as a reminder, the Falcons allowed only 17 points per game in the regular season at home (that number increases to 18.22 if you include last weekend's game). The 49ers defense allowed an average of 20.25 points per game on the road this season and that means they allowed roughly a touchdown more per game on the road than at home.
When looking at the 49ers offense, however, analyzing a full season of statistics is meaningless as their current starting quarterback only actually played for the second half of the regular season. It is for this reason that we'll use only games in which Colin Kaepernick started to take offensive production averages. The Kaepernick-led 49ers averaged 24.5 points on the road this season. This statistic is a tad misleading because at no time did the 49ers score anywhere near 24.5 points on the road with Kaepernick under center. During these four road games, the 49ers scored 31 points against the Saints, 13 points in a loss to the Rams, 41 points in surprising a road win against the Patriots, and 13 points in a blowout loss to the Seahawks. This shows that the 49ers are either red hot or ice cold on the road with Colin Kaepernick starting. This is good, though, as it shows us which types of teams create problems for Kaepernick and which he seems to be able to dominate on the road.
Kaepernick started in his first road game in New Orleans earlier this season. The Saints endured so much offseason turmoil that it's no surprise they finished with a losing record. Nevertheless, the Saints were still a dangerous team at times in their own stadium this season. A 31-21 score would indicate a strong offensive performance against a poor Saints defense, but that simply wasn't the case as 14 of the 49ers' 31 points came off of interceptions returned for touchdowns. Kaepernick threw for one touchdown and ran for another, and David Akers kicked a field goal for the game's final score. The 49ers, thus, relied on defensive touchdowns to win the game.
Kaepernick's next road game was a 16-13 loss to the Rams. Kaepernick threw for no touchdowns, and the 49ers' lone touchdown came from a 1 yard goaline rush by Frank Gore. The Rams sacked Kaepernick 3 times and held him to 208 passing yards. The 49ers' next road game turned out quite differently. The 49ers faced the Patriots in Foxboro, and outlasted the Patriots in a 41-34 thriller. Tom Brady threw for 443 yards and the Patriots went on a 28 point comeback, but that comeback fell short as the Patriots simply ran out of time to attempt to score one more touchdown that would have tied the game. Despite impressive passing yardage, Brady threw for only 1 touchdown, ran in another, and threw 2 interceptions. The 49ers forced a total of 4 turnovers including the two aforementioned interceptions and 2 fumbles. The 49ers also sacked Brady 3 times, while the Patriots only sacked Kaepernick once.
The 49ers' final road game was one that they'd probably like to forget. On a cold and wet night in Seattle, the Seahawks destroyed the 49ers in almost every way imaginable. The Seahawks returned a blocked field goal for a touchdown, Russell Wilson threw for 4 touchdowns, and Marshawn Lynch rushed for a touchdown. Colin Kaepernick passed for 231 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception.
The major common theme in the 49ers' road wins is that the 49ers defense forces a lot of turnovers and gives Colin Kaepernick and his offense good field position and lots of opportunities to score. The major common theme in the 49ers' road wins is that the defense fails to force a large number of turnovers and Colin Kaepernick simply isn't dynamic enough to complete enough long drives to win games. There is an interesting similarity between the two teams the 49ers beat on the road: both teams were pass-first offenses with poor pass defenses. The two teams that the 49ers lost to on the road had at least decent pass defenses. The Rams were a middle of the pack team in terms of pass yards allowed per game, but they produced a good pass rush and sacked the 49ers' quarterback 3 times. The Seahawks only sacked Kaepernick once, but they possesed a great secondary that allowed few passing yards.
I know this is a long drawn out analysis, but all of this information is key to an accurate prediction in this game, so please bear with me just a little bit longer. Now must decide what these road wins and losses mean when facing the Falcons. The Falcons certainly resemble the Saints and Patriots a lot more than they resemble the Seahawks and Rams as Atlanta possesses the 6th ranked pass and only the 23rd ranked pass defense. The Falcons don't typically fare much better stopping the run as they ranked 21st in run defense during the regular season. These rankings, however, fail to take into account the fact that the Falcons ranked 5th in total points allowed during the regular season. The Falcons displayed a fantasic ability to keep the Seahawks out of the endzone in the first half of last weekend's divisional matchup.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The vast majority of NFL fans seem to be sold on Colin Kaepernick after his electric performance against the Packers in San Francisco last week. There's no denying his talent as he ran for 180 rushing yards and outplayed one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. The problem is that the Packers still managed to score 31 points on the 49ers' defense, and that signals to me that the 49ers' defense is simply not the same with an injured Justin Smith. Smith is playing through a partially torn triceps, and that's not something a defensive lineman can play through and still be a major factor. If the 49ers defense allowed 31 points at home after a bye week, then I can't imagine they'll be any less pourous against an equally high-octane Falcons' passing attack in Atlanta. Matt Ryan won his first playoff game last week against arguably the best secondary in the NFL and he did so without ever being sacked. Like the 49ers will be doing this weekend, the Seahawks were not playing with a fully healthy defensive line as their best pass rusher, Chris Clemons, was out with a torn ACL. Matt Ryan showed he was able to overcome his two interceptions to lead a final scoring drive last week. Matt Ryan may have only won a single playoff game in his career, but he's about to win another, and this won will send him to the Superbowl. I know everyone is picking the 49ers in this one, but the Falcons' defense is simply too good in the Georgia Dome, and Matt Ryan can pass on even elite secondaries. Kaepernick is talented and athletic, but he hasn't shown the ability to lead a comeback win on the road against a playoff-caliber team.
MY PREDICTION: FALCONS 33-27
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