The Steelers have lost 3 out of their last 4 games against the Ravens in Pittsburgh. They have also lost 4 our of their last 5 games against the Ravens when Ben Roethlisberger has started at quarterback. The Steelers were already throttled in their first meeting with the Ravens in Week 2 of this season...so why does everyone assume the Steelers will win? I pondered this potentially epic midseason matchup over the course of the last week, and my opinion of the likely outcome has changed dramatically. There was a time for the first two years of Joe Flacco's career where the Steelers were thought to simply have the Ravens' number. The Steelers, in fact, swept the Ravens in Joe Flacco's rookie season, and then they beat the Ravens once in the regular season and once again in the playoffs in Joe Flacco's sophomore season. Many of these losses came in heartbreaking fashion with Ben Roethlisberger finding a way to buy time with his legs and make last minute drives. Some other Ravens losses to the Steelers came at the hands of Troy Polamalu with his interceptions and strip-sacks. Almost all of these games was decided by a margin of 3 points or less, and for Ravens fans such as myself it always felt as though the Steelers were always juuuuust a hair better than our beloved birds. Then 2011 happened.
On September 11, 2011, the Ravens demolished the Steelers 35-7, and they did so buy out-performing Big Ben and company in every phase of the game. Steelers fans that I spoke to at the time said things like "just wait until the Ravens come to Pittsburgh." Well the Ravens went to Pittsburgh that season as they do every season, and this time they came away with a thrilling 23-20 victory from a brilliant game-winning drive by Joe Flacco capped off by a 26 yard touchdown strike to Torrey Smith in the right corner of the end zone with 8 seconds left on the clock. The Ravens swept the Steelers for the first time in Joe Flacco's career, and they suddenly proved themselves the best team in the division.
Since 2011, the Ravens have twice split their games with the Steelers, but the Steelers no longer appear to simply have the Ravens' number. Ben Roethlisberger has put up absolutely atrocious numbers against the Ravens during that time, and when the Steelers have won in the last two seasons it has been because of major defensive plays or critical errors by the Ravens rather than miraculous plays by the Super Bowl-winning Steelers quarterback. The last time the Ravens blew the Steelers out in early September they ended up edging the Steelers in Week 9. I see little reason why that won't happen again. The Steelers are simply inconsistent this season. They appear to be getting a monumental amount of credit for narrowly holding on to beat a Texans team that did everything it could to give the Steelers the game through an embarrassing collection of calamitous turnovers and then beating a Colts team in Pittsburgh that lacked its best possession receiver (Reggie Wayne) and its best defensive back (Vontae Davis). Beating a crippled dome team outside of their dome is not an indication that a team is on some sort of hot streak. With that said, the Steelers have found a way to win their last two games against two solid teams, and they've done so with a poorly staffed defense.
The Ravens, like the Colts, will be missing their best defensive back when they play the Steelers on Sunday. Unlike the Colts, however, the Ravens are NOT a dome team, and they will NOT be missing their best possession wide receiver. The Ravens offense, in fact, will only be missing a rookie slot receiver with a no more than half a dozen catches this season. The ravens, unlike the Colts, have a more diverse array of weapons to whom Joe Flacco can spread the ball. Oh, and let's not forget the fact that those weapons already proved they can move the ball quite well on this Steelers defense. The Colts defense lacked any significant pass rush against a fairly poor Steelers offensive line, and the Ravens already showed that they can put serious pressure on Ben in Week 2.
It must also be noted that the first time the Ravens faced Ben Roethlisberger, they were thinner and less experienced at the safety position, and they didn't have Lardarius Webb on the field. Webb is no longer as good as Jimmy Smith, but he has plenty of experience against the Steelers, and he is getting back to form with each passing week. Hopefully Will Hill has also progressed in his digestion of the Ravens defensive schemes so as to spend more time on the field this week and for the rest of the season. He was the third ranked safety in the league last season according to Pro Football Focus, and I don't know how much more rookie mistakes the Ravens can put up with from Terrence Brooks and a sophomore Matt Elam.
There's probably not much I can say to convince people that the Ravens will beat the Steelers on Sunday. I must, however, remind my readers that the last time the Ravens narrowly lost to the Bengals they immediately demolished and humiliated the Steelers on national television. There is a real shot that the Ravens lose this game, but they are simply the more complete team. The Steelers might have better offensive numbers in certain categories, but the Ravens have scored more points this season overall and they the second best defense in the league in regards to points allowed per game. The Steelers gave up 34 points last week in a hurry to a team without its future hall of fame receiver The Ravens might not put up 34 points--but then again maybe they will...
Let's get to the picks!
WEEK 9 NFL PREDICTIONS
BUCCANEERS AT BROWNS- I know the Browns got beat down by the Jaguars, but they'll still better at home than the Buccaneers are anywhere. BROWNS 24-13
CARDINALS AT COWBOYS- So Romo has a broken back. I gotta give this one to the Cardinals. CARDINALS 31-28
EAGLES AT TEXANS- The Texans defense has arguably the best defensive player of the last three seasons...and they still suck. EAGLES 38-20
JETS AT CHIEFS- Have the Jets done ANYTHING to suggest they can win a football game??? CHIEFS 28-17
JAGUARS AT BENGALS- The Bengals don't need a healthy team to beat the Jaguars. BENGALS 42-10
CHARGERS AT DOLPHINS- The Chargers have had maaaaybe one quality win and even that wasn't nearly as quality as many thought at the time. The Dolphins have the 3rd ranked pass defense in the league. DOLPHINS 28-24
REDSKINS AT VIKINGS- The Redskins defense impressed me last week. DeAngelo Hall's injury is puzzling, but the Vikings are horrible. REDSKINS 21-20
RAMS AT 49ERS- The Rams don't strike me as a great road team. 49ERS 30-21
BRONCOS AT PATRIOTS- The Patriots pass defense is absolutely sensational though their run defense is lacking. There will be a high of 40 degrees and a low of 27 degrees in Foxboro on Sunday with a chance of a wintery mix....yeah I doubt this will be Pey Pey's day. PATRIOTS 33-28
RAIDERS AT SEAHAWKS- SEAHAWKS 35-7
RAVENS AT STEELERS- The Ravens are the more complete team and will stop the run and rush the passer much better than the other opponents that the Steelers have faced. The Steelers defense has trouble stopping this Ravens offense. The fact that this game is in Pittsburgh shouldn't mean too much. RAVENS 31-23
COLTS AT GIANTS- There's not a lot the Giants have shown this season to suggest they can go toe to toe with a team such as the Colts. COLTS 28-14
IT'S RAVENS-STEELERS TIME!!!!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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