At this point last season the Baltimore Ravens held a record of 4-6. They had lost a handful of painfully close games such as those against the Packers and Bears or in Pittsburgh against the Steelers. First half ineptitude was the hallmark of the Jim Caldwell offense, and 4th quarter collapses were a near certainty given the depressing amount of time the defense spent on the field each week. One thing kept a glimmer of hope alive in the hearts of players and fans of the formerly dominant team: the mediocrity/parity of most of the rest of the AFC.
After ten weeks in 2014 the Ravens find themselves with a respectable 6-4 record. Offensive production has improved overall under the guidance of offensive coordinator, Gary Kubiak, and the Ravens defense ranks third in the NFL in points allowed--the only defensive stat that TRULY matters. Lately, however, the Ravens lost two games to division rivals including a loss in Cincinnati that simply shouldn't have been and an embarrassing dismantling in Pittsburgh that exposed nearly every weakness the Ravens possessed.
Both the Steelers and Bengals, thankfully, then proceeded to experience their own embarrassment with losses to the Jets and Browns respectively. The Ravens, meanwhile, dominated the lowly Tennessee Titans in Baltimore in what seemed like a practice game to get back on track and try out new members of a controversially disappointing secondary. The newly made-over secondary didn't disappoint, but it would be foolish to pronounce the back end of the defense fixed after a dominant performance against a bottom-feeding team with a rookie starting quarterback.
Joe Flacco and company don't have any particularly dominant teams left on their schedule, but they will soon face two experienced quarterbacks often thought of as elite in Drew Brees and Philip Rivers. The Saints and Chargers have both been uncharacteristically weak in recent weeks, but New Orleans still possesses the third ranked offense in the league and the Chargers rank eleventh in passing yards per game. The Chargers have exclusively been beaten by winning teams (Broncos, Dolphins, Cardinals, and Chiefs) but are still strong in a way that will challenge the only true weak spot the in the Ravens' game--the secondary. The Saints are not much different. Drew Brees and company have lost one more game than the Chargers, but they still have the ability to put up a lot of points in a hurry, especially in New Orleans.
It's a good thing that the Ravens have a bye week just before going to the toughest road environment left on their schedule. Extra time to rest will ensure the players are as healthy as they can be before facing a team to which they've never lost, and extra time will also afford the Ravens coaching staff the ability to deeply analyze and pick apart a somewhat flawed team that has, nevertheless, maintained a nearly perfect home record. No, the Ravens' season will NOT be over if they lose to the Saints, and No, the Ravens' season will likely also not be over if they lose to the Chargers. If they end up losing to both, however, they'll likely have to win their 4 remaining games to maintain the hope of making the playoffs.
Earning a playoff berth seems like a serious accomplishment after failing to do so last season, but what will that post-season spot mean if the Ravens aren't strong enough to then beat other playoff teams? This brings me to my most important point: if the Ravens can't manage after a bye week to go on the road and beat a totally beatable Saints team, and if they can't then come home to Baltimore and beat an ice-cold Chargers team that ranks nearly last in the league in rushing, then what can anyone actually expect from Baltimore in the post-season? No, wins over the Saints and Chargers aren't absolutely essential to gaining entry to the big dance, but they'll certainly show us whether or not the Ravens can actually dance once they get there.
With its collective back to the wall, this organization has shown an incredible ability to dig deep and win football games in November and December. I expect nothing less in 2014. The Ravens' point differential is higher than that of all teams in the league except the Patriots, Broncos, and Eagles. They have shown the ability to run the football and stop the run, so playing in cold weather should come quite naturally to them.
The Ravens have a fierce defensive front 7 with and impressive mix of speed, youth, experience, and depth. Suggs and Dumervil combine to form one of the fiercest pass rushing tandems in the league, and Haloti Ngata has a pleasantly bizarre combination of interceptions and passes defensed that would only typically make sense for a safety or cornerback. For the record, Ngata has more passes defensed (9) than Richard Sherman or J.J. Watt. The Tongan behemoth is also tied with C.J. Mosley for most picks (2) on the team. Timmy Jernigan has been playing like a first round pick as of late, and Pernell McPhee is making a great case for a serious contract after this season. If there was ever a defensive front 7 that could make problems for the likes of Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, it's this one. The question remains whether or not the back end of the defense without Jimmy Smith will be able to hold up against such offensive juggernauts. With more practice, preparation, schematic tweaking, and a little help from a dominant pass rush, this Ravens defense might just surprise us all. We'll know a LOT more in just a few weeks. For now let's just kick back, relax, and watch the rest of teams tear each other to pieces while our favorite players rest and get healthy. Now let's take a look at the picks!
WEEK 11 NFL PREDICTIONS
BILLS AT DOLPHINS- This will be a huge test for a Dolphins team that just lost arguably its best offensive player in left tackle Branden Albert. Ryan Tannehill got thoroughly pummeled last season without good protection, and I fear he might experience a lot more of that against a divisional rival in a short week to prepare. Cortland Finnegan will also likely be out for this game. The one saving grace is that this game will be played in Miami. The last time these two teams played, the Bills beat the Dolphins soundly and that was when the Dolphins were in relatively good health. The Fins will still win some games this season, but probably they simply don't match up well to this Bills team. Oh and Tannehill is still pretty banged up from the Lions game. BILLS 23-20
VIKINGS AT BEARS- The Vikings are coming off of a bye week that followed two solid wins over crappy teams. Well what do you know? The BEARS ARE ALSO A CRAPPY TEAM! VIKINGS 28-17
TEXANS AT BROWNS- The Browns have been, at times, uneven this season, but they appear to be hitting their stride at the moment. The Texans, meanwhile, haven't shown enough offensive consistency and likely won't be able to do much against a stout Browns defense. I expect Joe Haden to minimize Andre Johnson's effectiveness. The only team the Texans have beaten on the road this season was the Raiders. BROWNS 30-14
SEAHAWKS AT CHIEFS- I heard a commentator speak about how the thought Seattle was going to absolutely take the Chiefs to task. I also learned that the Seahawks lost one of their best defensive linemen for the season this week. As much as the media seemed enamored with the Seahawks of last season, they must start to understand that this is simply not the same team. The defensive line is quite different, and lately the Seahawks have played down to some of the worst opponents in the league. They barely edged the Panthers 13-9, and they also narrowly beat the Raiders 30-24. That doesn't strike me as a team that will go into Kansas City and lay a smackdown a team that won 6 of its last 7 games over teams such as the Patriots, Chargers, Dolphins, and Bills. Go ahead and tell eeeverybody, Richard Sherman, you're the man, you're the man, you're the man. It won't matter much when your team loses this weekend. CHIEFS 21-16
FALCONS AT PANTHERS- If this game is exciting it's only because these two teams suck so very much that things might be even and interesting. The Falcons have put up a decent amount of point this season, but they can't play serious defense. The Panthers struggle to score...and play defense...yeah I'm going Falcons here. Cam Newton looked awful on Monday night. FALCONS 24-17
BENGALS AT SAINTS- The Bengals haven't shown me any reason why they could go on the road and win this game. I don't care that the Ravens lost to them twice, this is a bad football team and injuries have only made it worse. This is the week that they fall to last place in the AFC North. SAINTS 42-26
BUCCANEERS AT REDSKINS- I can feel it, Redskins fans! This is the week that your team beats one of the crappiest teams in the NFL!!! Seriously, though, coming off of a bye week the Redskins should win this one easily. REDSKINS 33-20
BRONCOS AT RAMS- The Rams surprised the world when they beat the Seahawks. The Seahawks beat the Broncos...soooo the Rams will beat the Broncos? Nope, not how that works. BRONCOS 35-21
49ERS AT GIANTS- The 49ers lose Patrick Willis for the season, but they'll get Aldon Smith back. They beat the Saints on the road so they should be able to handle the Giants. 49ERS 24-21
RAIDERS AT CHARGERS- The Chargers haven't won in a month, but they've played only winning teams for the last 3 weeks. The Raiders are awful and that's not going to change. CHARGERS 27-14
EAGLES AT PACKERS- The Eagles are a better team than the Packers, but the Packers are tough to beat in Green Bay and appear to have hit their stride as of late. PACKERS 38-35
LIONS AT CARDINALS- The Cardinals looked like arguably the best team in the league...and then their quarterback went down for the season. LIONS 30-24
PATRIOTS AT COLTS- The Patriots are a complete team with solid defense and impressive offense. The Colts have serious defensive weaknesses, but they'll be coming off of a bye week and are extremely healthy. My brain tells me to pick the Patriots here, but my gut tells me the Colts will fare much better with Vontae Davis back and a healthy pass rush. The Patriots also aren't great at stopping the run and that could mean a big day for Ahmad Bradshaw as the Patriots put all their effort into stopping the Colts' number one ranked passing attack. If this were in Foxboro, there would be no question I'd pick the Patriots...it is in Lucas Oil Stadium. COLTS 37-31
STEELERS AT TITANS- This is a game the Titans SHOULD lose, but it's tough to tell with these Steelers. The Steelers struggled against a mobile Michael Vick, and Mettenberger doesn't have that kind of mobility or enough weapons to take the Steelers down. I REEEEALLY hope I'm wrong about this. STEELERS 28-14
There's a narrow but NOT nonexistent chance that all three of the Ravens' AFC North rivals lose this week. There is a HIGH probability that the Bengals will lose and a decent chance that the Browns or Steelers could lose too. If all three AFC North teams lose this week, the Ravens would find themselves in first place once again. Whatever happens, I have a feeling the Ravens certainly won't be in last place when they travel to New Orleans next week. Let's hope the Titans, Texans, and Saints all take care of business.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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