This week saw record low temperatures for the U.S. in November. The Buffalo Bills organization is buried in feet of snow, and their game has been moved to Monday night. Many teams playing games in cold weather environments will undoubtedly lean on their rushing attacks to move the football. The Ravens will NOT be playing in such an environment. They travel to New Orleans to play in a dome environment against a team that has historically been fantastic at home. The Saints, however, are coming off of two consecutive home losses, and they took two more key hits to their roster last week in their defeat to the Bengals.
The Saints will be without their leading wide receiver, Brandin Cooks, when they take the field against the Ravens on Monday night. Drew Brees is 0-3 against Baltimore in his 14 year career, and he'll be relatively low on weapons with which to change that trend. Brees will, instead, have to rely upon one of the best tight ends in the league, Jimmy Graham, and the Saints' best deep threat, Marques Colston, against a patchwork Ravens secondary with three new players at the cornerback position.
Brandin Cooks' quickness, hands, and route-running ability have made him Drew Brees' top possession wide receiver this season. He has 53 catches, 550 yards, and ranks behind only Jimmy Graham in each statistical category for the Saints' receiving corps. Few quarterbacks fare nearly as well after losing a chain-mover like Cooks, but Brees still has other receivers to whom he can turn in Cooks' absence. Brees has, in fact, spread the ball out to a decent number of receivers aside of his top three of Graham, Cooks, and Colston. Kenny Stills isn't far behind with 31 catches and 431 receiving yards this season, while Travis Cadet and Pierre Thomas combine for 56 catches and 456 receiving yards.
It's not that Brees has no other receivers to whom he can target in Brandin Cooks' stead, but he likely has few, if any, other receivers who have the speed and quickness to get open fast enough to help Brees evade a serious pass rush such as that which the Ravens will undoubtedly bring with them to New Orleans on Monday night. The Ravens pass defense is poorly ranked this season at 21st in the league in yards allowed, but their performance in the redzone is what has kept the Ravens scoring defense elite as they're 5th in the league with only 18.1 points allowed per game. The Saints have had decent rushing production from Mark Ingram who has averaged 4.5 yards per carry and has amassed over 600 rushing yards this season. Ingram's success running the football has allowed Brees to make some great passes off of play-action, but the Ravens run defense ranks 5th in the league only allowing 84.5 yards per game on the ground. If the Saints hope to have success against a Ravens defense, they'll likely only do so through the air.
The Ravens pass defense has had serious issues this season after Jimmy Smith's season-ending injury, especially against deep passes. The Saints pass defense, however, is arguably worse at this point and for similar reasons. The Saints have now lost their third starting safety to season-ending injury after Rafael Bush was put on injured reserve this week. It is not entirely clear who will step up to play free safety, but chances are whoever that is will be seriously picked on by Joe Flacco. The Ravens' deep passing game hasn't been what it was in previous years, but it's starting to pick up steam as Torrey Smith has scored 5 touchdowns in his last 5 games. With an extra week of rest, the Ravens offensive line should be ready to give Joe Flacco time to find Torrey Smith and possibly even Jacoby Jones, Kamar Aiken, or Marlon Brown deep down field.
Torrey Smith is hardly the only receiving weapon for which the Saints must account this week. Steve Smith has had over 1,400 receiving yards in 23 games against the New Orleans Saints defense, and he has put up over 200 yards against them in a single game. Unlike the Ravens, the Saints have a run defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league. The Saints have allowed 114 rushing yards per game this season, and allowed a total of 330 rushing yards in the last two weeks. Oh yeah...and the Saints played their last two games at home. Last week against the Bengals, the Saints allowed a whopping 186 yards on the ground. The Bengals controlled the game from start to finish, and the Saints didn't even score a touchdown until the final quarter. The Bengals have a poorly ranked pass defense as well, but that didn't seem to matter with the limited number of weapons at Drew Brees' disposal this season. It truly was a mistake to let Darren Sproles go, and I'm quite certain the Saints organization has realized that by now.
I can't say I predicted the Raiders would beat the Chiefs, but that only continues this season's trend of perplexing upsets. Besides, everyone beats someone at some point. If predicting NFL games were easy then it wouldn't be fun. With that said, let's get to the picks!
WEEK 12 NFL PREDICTIONS
BROWNS AT FALCONS- The Falcons have won their last two games against divisional opponents on the road, and three games ago they barely lost to the Lions by a single point. The Browns might have Josh Gordon back, but they've lost two more key defenders and looked horrible last week. Gotta go with the home team on this one. FALCONS 28-17
TITANS AT EAGLES- The Titans won't be able to keep up on the road with the offensive production of the Eagles. EAGLES 38-21
LIONS AT PATRIOTS- The Patriots might have some difficulty against the Lions' defense in Detroit, but they'll move the ball on them in Foxboro. PATRIOTS 27-21
PACKERS AT VIKINGS- One of these teams is very good at football. The other is the Vikings. PACKERS 42-19
JAGUARS AT COLTS- The Colts are coming off of a tough home loss to the best, most complete team in the league. Now they get to face one of the worst teams in the league, but they'll do so without one of their best playmakers as Ahmad Bradshaw is out for the season. This one will be closer than you might think. COLTS 23-13
BENGALS AT TEXANS- The Bengals can pat themselves on the back for beating a crappy Saints team that is only getting worse by the week, but the Texans are getting better with Ryan Mallet playing QB. Let's see who can stop J.J. Watt. TEXANS 27-24
BUCCANEERS AT BEARS- Josh McCown will be starting against his old team this week. As bad as the Buccaneers are, they still have some weapons such as Vincent Jackson. This game will be uncomfortably close. BEARS 20-17
CARDINALS AT SEAHAWKS- The Cardinals probably won't be as good without Carson Palmer for the remainder of the season, but they got the job done last week...and the week before that...and the week before that...etc The Cardinals pass defense is ranked 29th in the league, but the Seahawks pass offense is ranked 30th in the league. If the Cardinals can slow down the offenses of the Cowboys, 49ers, Eagles, and Lions, I don't see why they can't slow down that of the Seahawks. The question is whether or not the Cardinals will be able to put up points in Seattle. Hell, if Oakland scored 24 points in Seattle, I don't think the Cardinals should do any less. CARDINALS 27-23
RAMS AT CHARGERS- The Rams have come alive recently, and the only two games they've lost in the the last 5 weeks were against two of the league's best teams. The Chargers have fallen hard. RAMS 20-16
DOLPHINS AT BRONCOS- I will be absolutely thrilled if the Dolphins win this game, but I have a feeling Peyton Manning is going to have a bounce back game. This should still be close. BRONCOS 30-24
REDSKINS AT 49ERS- RG3 is basically worthless in this offense. 49ERS 33-14
COWBOYS AT GIANTS- Cowboys coming off a bye should run the ball right down the throats of a horrible Giants team that never seems to enjoy a home field advantage. Eli will complete a lot of passes...but to which team? COWBOYS 35-10
JETS AT BILLS- The Bills haven't been able to practice all week. There's no way they're prepared for this one. JETS 23-21
RAVENS AT SAINTS- I very well may predict a Ravens loss or two during this final 6 game stretch, but it won't be this week. The Ravens haven't been great on the road this season, but they don't struggle against teams with poor defenses, and they haven't lose to a team with a losing record yet. Forget what you think you know about the Saints offense. The Saints will be down to Marques Coltson, Kenny Stills, and Jimmy Graham. If the Bengals can go into New Orleans, jam the Saints receivers at the line and get pressure on Drew Brees, then the Ravens can too. The Saints will not be able to stop Justin Forsett, Lorenzo Taliaferro, and maybe even Kyle Juszczyk. As I stated previously, the Saints gave up 330 rushing yards in their last two games. When the Ravens establish the run, they'll open things up for a passing attack that won't have to deal with legitimate safeties as the Saints are painfully depleted. Steve Smith knows exactly how to attack this defense, and Torrey Smith will stretch the field. Owen Daniels should also have a decent game after extended rest. Drew Brees has never beaten the Ravens and this is the weakest his team has ever been while facing them...so why would he start now? I don't buy the desperation angle because the Saints are tied for the lead in their awful, awful division. The Ravens are in the hunt, and they know how to win in November. RAVENS 33-17
If I'm wrong about the Ravens and this ends up being a down week for them, then making the playoffs will be a serious challenge going forward. I, however, don't think they'll let us down this time. This is a better Ravens team than that of last season, and even last season's team went on a four game winning streak at this point in the year.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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