My hopes of another Steelers road defeat to a losing team came crashing down when Big Ben and company remembered how to play football in the 4th quarter of their game in Tennessee on Monday night. The Titans led by as much as 11 points in the 3rd quarter, but their inferior defense finally came back down to earth as Le'Veon Bell rumbled effortlessly for a total over over 200 yards. I heard some Ravens fans get excited about how the Steelers almost lost to a truly bad team, but almost losing is an action commonly referred to as winning.
The Steelers now go into their bye week with a division-leading 7 wins. The Bengals might technically have the division lead as they hold the best winning percentage due to their tie to the Panthers, but wins are what will ultimately decide the AFC North crown, and the Bengals tie is still one missed opportunity for a win. The Bengals may yet play a deciding role in the outcome of the AFC North as they have 3 divisional matchups left, but their upcoming schedule is so difficult that it's hard to see them winning more than 2 or 3 of their remaining 6 games. THIS should give Ravens fans some comfort as the Bengals remain the only team in the AFC North with a head-to-head tiebreaker advantage in the race for the playoffs if both the Ravens and Bengals were to finish with the same win percentage. Now it IS important to note that the odds of the Ravens finishing with the same win percentage as the Bengals are exceedingly slim as the Ravens would have to tie one of their remaining opponents in the last 6 games of the regular season. With that said, it's great that the only AFC North team to have swept the Ravens in the regular season appears to be a long shot to make the playoffs despite their current spot atop the division.
Unlike the Bengals, the Steelers have a chance to improve in the week off and win a good number of their remaining 6 games. Ryan Shazier, Ike Taylor, and Troy Polamalu all have strong odds of returning immediately or shortly after the Steelers' bye week, and their respective presences should bolster a Steelers defense that just struggled to contain one of the worst offenses in the league on Monday night. Any increase in defensive ability should, unfortunately for nearly everyone in Baltimore, give the Ben Roethlisberger far more opportunities to put together drives. That isn't to say, however, that the Steelers are a flawless team. They appear to have road problems that go beyond the loss of a few defensive starters, but their impressive array of offensive weapons and their timely bye week should go a long way to aiding a final push for their first post-season berth since Tim Tebow embarrassed them three years ago.
It was only one week ago that the Browns appeared to be the hottest team in the AFC North. Suddenly the Browns lost two defensive starters in Karlos Dansby and Jabaal Sheard, and oh yeah, they lost their home game to the Texans as well. It's not that the Texans are a horrible team, but I doubt anyone assumed the Browns would lose to them in Cleveland shortly after beating the Bengals senseless in the same venue. Now the Browns will go into a harrowing late-season stretch wherein four out of their last 6 games will be on the road, and their two home games come against teams with winning records in the Colts and Bengals. The one factor that could potentially save the Browns' season is the return of Josh Gordon. I don't expect Gordon to come in and immediately be in game shape as though he had been playing all season, but there are plenty of people who have bought into that idea recently. Even with Josh Gordon, the Browns simply no longer appear to possess the defensive ability to come up with enough stops to give their offense opportunities to score. If the Browns find themselves with an early deficit, they'll likely get away from the run and put the ball in the hands of Brian Hoyer far more times than would be conducive to wins. If Hoyer gets in a shootout with Andrew Luck, for example, I have little doubt as to which quarterback will emerge as the victor.
The Browns' final opponent of the regular season is the only AFC North opponent to win in Cleveland in 2014. The Baltimore Ravens' win over the Browns also happens, coincidentally, to be their only divisional road victory this season. Fortunately for the Ravens, the only divisional matchup left on their schedule is the aforementioned home game against the Browns. The Ravens have an improved chance of going into New Orleans to beat the Saints next Monday night as the Saints lost both their leading wide receiver, Brandin Cooks, and their starting safety, Rafael Bush. Bush is now the third starting safety the Saints have lost to season-ending injury. Bush's backup, in fact, suffered a broken arm only the week before, so the Saints will have to reach deep into their depth chart to find safeties. The Saints' best cornerback, Keenan Lewis, played only 11 snaps against the Bengals as his leg injury from the week prior flared up early in Sunday's game. The same Andy Dalton that had a passer rating of 2 the week prior against the Browns ended up with a passer rating of 143.9 in New Orleans last Sunday. If there was ever a road game wherein the conditions were primed for a Ravens victory, it would be this one against the Saints.
After the Saints game, the Ravens head home to face a Chargers team that fares quite poorly in trips to the East Coast. A huge part of the Chargers ineffectiveness in the last month has been poor offensive line play. Despite the talent and experience level of Philip Rivers, the Chargers barely beat the worst team in football at home in San Diego last weekend 13-6. If the Chargers can't move the football at home against the Raiders, they're going to get absolutely obliterated against a fierce and fairly well-rested Ravens front 7 in Baltimore. The Ravens have a great chance to emerge from this two week stretch against two of the league's best quarterbacks with a 8-4 record. The following, however, will be possibly the greatest remaining test on a relatively easy schedule.
The Miami Dolphins silenced my doubts about their ability to perform without their starting left tackle when they beat the Buffalo Bills last Thursday night. The Tannehill and company may still possibly struggle when they go on the road without their Pro Bowl-caliber left tackle, but the Dolphins won't be playing the Ravens in Baltimore. Miami has an incredibly tough schedule ahead with three of their next four games on the road including trips to Denver and Foxboro. Even their road trip in two weeks to New York to face the Jets could prove treacherous as the Jets looked vastly improved with Michael Vick as their starting QB against the Steelers two weekends ago. The Dolphins may just lose all of their road games during that four game stretch, but their one home game will be against the Ravens, and that's what scares me. Let's assume, for a moment, that the Ravens lose in Miami to the Dolphins. That would put the Ravens at 8-5 with two home games left. The Ravens will almost certainly beat the Jaguars at home, and it's difficult to see the Baltimore losing at home to a Browns team with such an inability to stop the run. Those two wins would give the Ravens a 10-5 record. That leaves the Week 16 showdown in Houston against the Texans looming as the last truly challenging game on the Ravens' schedule.
The Houston Texans appear to be improved with Ryan Mallet at the helm of their offense. The Texans looked to be absolutely finished earlier this season, but they have won 2 out of their last 3 games. At 5-5 they have a fighting chance of making a wildcard playoff berth. Houston would likely have to win at least 4 or 5 of their last 6 games to earn a wildcard spot, and they still have to face 3 opponents with winning records including two division-leading teams in the Bengals and Colts. Whether or not the Texans have a shot at making the playoffs, however, means little when it comes to their odds of beating the Ravens at home. As I've said in previous posts, it's hard to know who will have the advantage: Gary Kubiak because of his knowledge of his former team, or the Texans with their knowledge of their former coach and his offensive tendencies. Regardless of who holds the upper hand (if anyone even does at all), the Texans will be a tough test on the road. Arian Foster missed the last game with a groin injury, but that didn't stop the Texans from scoring and doing so in creative ways. If the Ravens want to absolutely guarantee a spot in the post-season, they MUST beat either the Dolphins or Texans. If the Ravens manage to beat both of these teams on the road, there's a serious chance that Baltimore could end up winning the division.
If there's any theme to the inconsistency of the teams I've discussed in this post, it's that injuries have severely altered their identities and turned many of their strengths into weaknesses over the course of this season. The once-impressive defenses of the Bengals, Steelers, Browns, AND Ravens have all taken key hits during the middle of this season. The result of these key defensive injuries has been unparalleled divisional parity. The team that will likely come out on top in the AFC North in the next 6 weeks will be that which finds a way to once again solidify its defense in what may soon prove to be incredibly harsh winter environments. Inconsistency and parity extend FAR beyond the AFC North as both of last year's Super Bowl participant teams have lost in uncharacteristic fashion in the last month. A big reason for their losses was, yup, you guessed it, major injuries to key personnel. Let's hope that the Ravens can take advantage of relative health coming out of a bye week and a relatively easy remaining schedule in this final stretch of the regular season. This team runs the football too well and stops the run well enough to win games in November and December. Let's hope the secondary holds up as well, and let's pray the passing game thrives off the potential success of the rushing attack.
THIS IS THE HOME STRETCH, RAVENS FANS
BALTIMORE DOMINATES IN COLD WEATHER
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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