I hope my readers can forgive me for neglecting to post Week 10 NFL predictions. This was the final week of the season for the teams that I coach, and there was little else on which I had time to focus. I doubt many people predicted the Ravens would lose to the Titans, and they didn't. I'm sure there were many of us, however, that feared another loss was on its way after the Ravens struggled to get the Titans offense of the field in the first quarter. Mettenberger looked sharp early in his debut, and it appeared as though the changes to Ravens secondary personnel made little difference--if anything it appeared a though the secondary was weaker. Then it happened. Last year's NCAA national champion safety and Ravens 2014 3rd round pick, Terrence Brooks, absolutely OBLITERATED a Titans receiver attempting to make a catch over the middle of the field. Not only did the receiver fail to complete the catch, but he was knocked out of the game entirely. That thunderous hit set the tone for the rest of the game, and the Titans were limited to three-and-outs until the last 4 minutes of the 4th quarter. Even when the Titans began to put together a late-game desperation drive, newly signed cornerback, Danny Gorrer quickly put a halt to any faint Titan hopes as he picked off Mettenberger close to the sideline and proceeded with an impressive return.
Beating up on the Titans is not something that in and of itself should instill hope into the hearts of the Ravens staff, players, and fans. A Ravens win over the Titans in concert with a Steelers road loss to the Jets and a Thursday night Bengals home loss to the Browns, however, means Week 10 was a resounding success for anyone who bleeds black and purple. Suddenly the Ravens stand at 6-4 with only one less win than the two leading teams in the AFC and only two wins less than the winningest team in the NFL. The Ravens are actually one of 5 teams in the AFC currently in possession of 6 wins, but almost all of those other teams appear have much tougher roads ahead of them in the final 7 weeks of the regular season. Let's take a look at each one!
The Colts had their bye this week, but they currently stand at 6-3 with all 6 wins coming in the last 7 weeks. The Colts will absolutely need this bye week as they face a red-hot Patriots team in Indianapolis next Sunday night. The Colts then face the Browns in Cleveland Week 14 and the Cowboys in Dallas in Week 16. Andrew Luck and company will almost certainly win their division barring any total collapse that could only be brought on by a catastrophic, season-ending injury to Andrew Luck, but they appear to also have a real shot at finishing their season with a rather modest 10-6 record. Well 10-6 is a good record, but it would certainly be modest for a division winner.
Next on our list is a Kansas City Chiefs team with 6-3 wins. The Chiefs are winners of 4 straight since their bye week including impressive wins at San Diego and Buffalo. The Chiefs don't have much of a passing attack, but they rank 6th in the league in rushing yards per game and 1st in the league in pass defense with only 199.4 yards allowed per game through the air. The Chiefs, however, must face an occasionally dominant Seahawks team next week, the Broncos in Week 13, the Cardinals in Arizona in Week 14, the Steelers in Pittsburgh in Week 16, and the Chargers in Week 17. The Chiefs certainly won't lose ALL of those games, but there's a serious chance they could lose to 3 or 4 of those 5 opponents and finish 10-6 or 9-7...or maybe even 8-8.
The next team on our list currently leads the AFC North with a 6-3 record, and is also currently the only team in the AFC North over which the Ravens own a tiebreaker if they utlimately finish with identical records. The Browns, however, will NOT finish ahead of the Ravens, and I can say that with a reasonable degree of certainty. I won't deny that the Browns looked great in their dismantling of the Bengals in Cincinnati last Thursday night, but they have almost no weak opponents left on their schedule. Next week the Browns play an uneven Texans squad, but then they travel to Atlanta to play a Falcons team that plays far better at home. In Week 13 the Browns travel to Buffalo to face the much improved Bills, and then they'll head back to Cleveland where they'll host the Colts. The Browns then play the Bengals in Cleveland the following week, the Panthers in Carolina, and they finish the season in Baltimore against a team that already beat them in Cleveland in Week 3. The Browns are in the midst of one of their best seasons in MANY years, but even the return of Josh Gordon late in the season might not be enough to stop them from losing to the Bills, Colts, Bengals, and Ravens. The Browns, nevertheless, are still one of the teams that pose the most threat to a possible return to the playoffs for the Ravens.
Before today I would have said the Steelers were the team most likely to win the AFC North, but Pittsburgh lost to a Jets team with only a single win on the season coming into today's game. The Steelers absolutely hammered the Ravens last week, and they thumped the Colts and Texans before that. Big Ben and company, however, have now lost 3 out of their 5 road games, and their two road wins came against two of the worst teams in the league. Many in Maryland have applauded the Ravens for handling business and beating the teams over which they've been heavily favored this season. The Steelers, on the other hand, lost in dramatic fashion to the anemic Tampa Bay Buccaneers and now to the Jets who had not won a game since Week 1 against the Oakland Raiders. Maybe the Steelers just aren't a great road team, or maybe Mike Tomlin and his guys have simply overlooked opponents perceived as weak. I don't care what the reason is as long as the Steelers continue to lose football games. Suddenly, next week's trip to Tennessee doesn't seem like a total lock for black and yellow. I'll still likely predict a Steelers win, but if they can lose to the Jets, they can lose to the Titans. There are still somewhat tougher opponents further down the road including the Bengals (twice) and the Chiefs. The Saints aren't particularly threatening especially on the road...but then again, neither were the Jets or Bucs. The Steelers also face the Falcons in Atlanta, and that is not an easy win regardless of the Falcons' record thus far. I still expect a relatively strong finish from the Steelers, but their dominance at home means absolutely nothing when it comes to road predictions.
The Bengals, Dolphins, and Chargers all currently possess 5 wins, but have been thought of for most of the season as big threats to the Ravens' possible return to the playoffs. The Bengals might just be the least likely team of this entire list to have even just a shot at the wildcard despite their two narrow wins over the Ravens. The Bengals still must travel to New Orleans to face the Saints next week, the Texans in Houston in Week 12, and then the Steelers twice, the Broncos, and the Browns in a terrifying last month of the season. I expect the Bengals to lose a least 5 more games (possibly 6) and finish 2014 with a 6-9-1 record or 7-8-1. Either way, they're not getting out of this alive with the state of that defense regardless of how they swept the Ravens.
The Dolphins still pose a reasonable threat to the Ravens when Joe Flacco and company travel to Miami in Week 14, but a devastating injury to the Dolphins offenive line that occurred on Sunday could hamper the Dolphins' ability to finish the way many of us expected they would. The Dolphins lost their starting left tackle, Branden Albert, and that loss is likely what kept them from putting up more points late and erasing the possibility of the Lions' eventual comeback. Now Ryan Tannehill could once again face similar pressure to that which plagued his 2013 season. This is actually rather sad for me. As much as I feared the Ravens going to Miami in Week 14, I loved watching another AFC East team find success in a division so often dominated by the Patriots. Now one of the two teams to which the Patriots have lost this season will be without arguably its best offensive player for the remainder of the season. The upside is that Suggs and Dumervil will likely feast on Branden Albert's replacement and his replacement's replacement on the other end of the line. The Dolphins themselves now face some rather tough opponents including the Bills in Miami next week, the Ravens in Miami, the Broncos in Denver, and the Patriots in Foxboro. The Dolphins could still win 4 or 5 of their final 7 games, but it will be an uphill battle with their most important offensive lineman suddenly out of the picture.
The Chargers once appeared to be red hot with 5 straight wins from September 14th to October 12th. Since October 12th, however, the Chargers with their most recent 37-0 blowout loss to the Dolphins last weekend. The Chargers are currently enjoying a bye week, and they'll get to play their next two games against teams with losing records, but they finish the season with a harrowing 5 week run against all winning teams including the Ravens in Baltimore, the Patriots in San Diego, the the Broncos in San Diego, the 49ers in San Francisco, and the Chiefs in Kansas City. The Chargers will be miraculously lucky to win even ONE of the games during that final 5 games stretch, and I'd bet quite a bit of money that the absolute best they'll finish is 8-8.
Last but certainly not least, the Ravens are 6-4. They certainly have no easy road back to the playoffs, but they face most of their toughest opponents in Baltimore where they've only lost a single game this season. The Ravens come out of their bye week traveling to a Saints team that has only beaten a single winning team this season. That game still looms as a challenge, but certainly not as daunting as it may have appeared before the season began. Drew Brees appears far less effective without Darren Sproles, and the typically spectacular veteran seems to breakdown under even a moderate amount of pressure this season...*enter Suggs and Doom*. The Saints also rank near last in the league in pass defense, so Flacco has a decent shot at a high-scoring day.
Next the Ravens face the Chargers at home whose only road wins came against the bottom-feeding Oakland Raiders and the 5-4 Buffalo Bills. The Chargers defense hasn't allowed a huge amount of yards this season, but it certainly has allowed a fantastic number of points in the last 3 weeks. The Chargers, in fact, have allowed just under 32 points per game in their current losing streak. They appear to truly struggle when traveling across country. Furthermore, the Chargers have one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL, and they'll likely be playing in fairly cold Baltimore weather on November 30th--not exactly something to which Philip Rivers is accustomed.
In Week 14 the Ravens will travel to Miami to face a team that possesses one of the best pass defenses in the NFL (2nd overall). The Dolphins also have an elite rushing attack (4th), but their ability to throw and run the football likely just took a hit with the aforementioned loss of Branden Albert. I expect the Ravens front seven to get a decent pass rush on Ryan Tannehill. Because of their excellent pass defense, however, I expect the Dolphins to be quite a serious challenge to the Ravens. This is the game in the final 6 weeks of the season that the Ravens are most likely to lose, but they have a much better shot now that Miami's offensive line will be weaker.
Even if the Ravens lose to the Dolphins in Miami, they still get to return to Baltimore to face one of the worst teams in the NFL, the Jacksonville Jaguars. This game is not a guaranteed win, but it's about as likely a win as the Ravens will get before the end of the regular season. After the Jaguars, the Ravens face a Texans team in Houston that has lost five of its last 7 games. I don't know whether the Ravens have an advantage having Gary Kubiak as their offensive coordinator because he knows how to attack his former defense, or whether the Texans have an advantage as their defense knows how to stop a Gary Kubiak-led offense. Either way, three of the Texans four wins have come against teams with a combined win total of 5. J.J. Watt is still a dominant force, but the Texans have never found an offensive rhythm. Hell, the Texans only beat the Titans in Houston 19-17 three weeks ago. The Ravens have only lost to the Texans once in NFL history. I like their odds in this game.
The Ravens finish their season at home against the Cleveland Browns. The Ravens edged the Browns in Cleveland in Week 3, but the Browns will likely have Josh Gordon back by the final week of the season and unlike most seasons, the Browns will actually likely have something to play for by Week 17. This is, by no means, a guaranteed win. The Ravens haven't lost at home to the Browns in the entire Flacco/Harbaugh era, but the Browns have played the Ravens fiercely in near every meeting between these two AFC North rivals. Brian Hoyer is clearly a competent quarterback, and the Browns have play-makers on both sides of the ball. I, however, fully expect the Ravens to win this game with good pressure on Hoyer and a raucous Ravens fan base making communication nearly impossible for the Cleveland offensive unit.
The Ravens almost always put together strong second halves of seasons. Last year's team was an aberration as the Ravens possessed, for the first time in the team's history, a total and utter lack of ability to run the football. Now the Ravens can run the football and stop the run during cold months as both their run defense and run offense rank in the top 10. I expect the Ravens to win a minimum of 4 of their final 6 games with the possibility of winning 5 or a far lower possibility of catching fire and winning out. Regardless, in any of those scenarios the Ravens finish with at least 10 wins and will almost certainly win at least a wildcard spot in the playoffs because of the comparatively challenging schedules that each of the other 5 and 6 win AFC playoff contenders face going forward. It's entirely possible and actually rather likely that both AFC wildcard teams emerge from the AFC North. I maintain that the Bengals will finish dead last, but only time will tell which of the other three will move on to post-season play.
THIS LEAGUE IS SATURATED WITH PARITY IN 2014
GET READY, RAVENS FANS
WE'RE IN FOR A WILD RIDE!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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