There are good reasons as to why the 8-1 Cowboys would be widely favored going into a home game against a 5-4 Ravens team. Each team's record alone should leave the Cowboys considerably favored, and the Ravens' injury issues certainly help to bolster the Cowboys' cause as well. The Cowboys, however, are not without their own personnel issues, and as triumphant as their last second win against the was a week ago, it exposed many weaknesses in addition to Dallas' strengths.
The Cowboys offensive line is unquestionably the best in the league. Their stout offensive front has paved the way for what will prove to be a record setting season for Cowboys rookie starting running back, Ezekiel Elliot. No one is questioning the incredibly vision, acceleration, and incredible cuts Elliot has put on display every week since joining the league.
The Steelers, however, bottled Elliott under 70 yards on the ground (he did have an incredible 83 yard catch and run for a touchdown) up until a critical Steelers defender went down with a torn pectoral just before the end of 3rd quarter. If you'll recall, a major reason I predicted a Steelers win last week was the return to health of Ryan Shazier and Cameron Heyward. With a healthy Shazier and Heyward, the Steelers were able to bottle up two talented Ravens running backs the week prior, and with Shazier and Heyward both on the field, Elliot was mostly limited on the ground compared to his typical production--and DEFINITELY compared to what was about to come once Heyward went down.
After Cameron Heyward came off the field for his injury, the Cowboys proceeded to score 3 explosive touchdowns. Now one can't downplay the strength of the Cowboys offense, but it had performed at a relatively pedestrian level for most of the game up until that point, and suddenly it exploded for one of the most incredibly back-and-forth finishes of any NFL game of the past 20 years. One thing that was abundantly apparent was the disturbingly wide open running lanes allowed by a Heywardless Steelers run defense. Cameron Heyward was notably previously absent against the Dolphins and Patriots, and the Steelers gave up an astounding 204 rushing yards and two touchdowns to J. Ajayi and then gave up 124 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns to LaGarrette Blount. It should, thus, come as no surprise that Ezekiel Elliot would also run wild for two rushing touchdowns shortly after Cameron Heyward left the field.
The Steelers weren't the only ones without key defensive personnel last week. The Cowboys starting corner Morris Claiborne and starting safety Barry Church. Ben Roethlisberger, despite a lackluster arsenal of receiving weapons outside of Antonio Brown, absolutely lit up the Cowboys for over 400 passing yards and 3 touchdowns. What's even more impressive is that such a monster performance came as Ben Roethlisberger was and probably is still recovering from a fairly severe torn meniscus.
Joe Flacco has never put up regular passing stats on the level of Ben Roethlisberger, but Joe is certainly easily on the level of Ben when he's not 100%. This season has be an unquestionable low point in Flacco's performance as he has thrown nearly as many interceptions as touchdowns, and he has displayed an uncharacteristic lack of confidence that is undoubtedly due to a combination of injuries to offensive linemen and uneasiness of the stability of or potential reinjury to his surgically repaired knee. One alarming statistic was that the Ravens lost every game that starting left tackle, Ronnie Stanley, didn't play. For four weeks straight the Ravens lost without him, and now for two weeks straight they've won with him back. Sadly though, Baltimore lost starting left guard, Alex Lewis, to a high ankle sprain, and he won't be back until the final few weeks of the season.
When Alex Lewis went down against the Browns, I expected Joe Flacco to suddenly experience tons of pressure and the Ravens offense to stall. The Browns, after all, just traded for Jamie Collins who was giving Ronnie Stanley a hard time on the left side. Now suddenly the left side of the Ravens offensive line would be weaker without another starter, right? Well that could have been the case, but you wouldn't have known it. Joe Flacco came alive in the second half with 3 impressive touchdown passes to three difference receivers.
There's no question that the Browns defense is one of the worst in the league, but blowing out a team that took the Ravens to the brink earlier this season definitely signals major progress. It wasn't simply that the Browns were bad; Joe Flacco was finally doing things we hadn't seem him do all season. He stepped into throws confidently and fit passes into tight windows. The most important change that seemed to allow Flacco to find open receivers and get rid of the ball more quickly was the introduction of various crossing routes designed to utilize the incredibly speed of Mike Wallace and Breshad Perriman. Perriman, in fact, led the team in receiving yards and had the first touchdown of his career despite being in fairly tight coverage.
The Cowboys have an impressive list of receivers of their own including tight end Jason Witten, Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley, and physical freak Dez Bryant. Dak Prescott has distributed the ball to these receivers safely over the course of this season, but he's never been asked to carry the team as the Cowboys have always been able to lean on their rushing attack to take pressure off of Dak. The question will be whether or not the Ravens can stuff the run on early downs and force Prescott to make plays. It should be noted that Dez Bryant was forced to be limited at practice because of a flare-up of a back issue that caused him to be limited to a single catch against the Browns a couple of weeks ago.
Also ailing with back stiffness is Ravens starting cornerback Jimmy Smith. Jimmy Smith was also limited in Friday's practice, but he's listed as doubtful on the injury report. Harbaugh seemed to give a glimmer of hope that Smith would play when he explained that it was a "good sign" that Smith returned to practice on Friday. The question will be whether or not Jimmy will be cleared by doctors before the game tomorrow. The availability and health of both Dez Bryant and Jimmy Smith, in fact, will likely tip the scales in favor of one team or the other tomorrow. Jimmy has shut down the likes of Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, DeSean Jackson, and even Odell Beckham Jr. When Jimmy Smith came out of the game against the Giants, however, Odell Beckham Jr. ran absolutely wild and nearly beat the Ravens by himself. If Dez is too hampered by his lingering back injury to be his normal, explosive self, then Jimmy Smith's absence will matter far less. If Dez is a full go and Jimmy is nowhere to be found, Dak could find him for some absolutely critical plays.
Fortunately for the Ravens, they're coming off of an extended 10 day rest period following their drubbing of the lowly Browns. Jimmy Smith's absence, though potentially a major factor, shouldn't stop Baltimore's ability to stuff the run. Cowboys starting left tackle, Tyron Smith, is also dealing with injuries to his back and hip, and he'll have his hands full with a rested Terrell Suggs who is still a top 10 pass rusher and elite run stuffer even with his relatively advanced ago and his own injury issues earlier this season. Also fortunately for the Ravens, the Cowboys are not an elite pass rushing team. Dallas is ranked 3rd against the run, but they also only average a modest 2 sacks per game. It's also safe to say that Dallas' ability to control the clock and limit time of possession for opposing teams by running the football consistently causes teams to throw the football more often to conserve clock.
The Cowboys winning streak and incredible comeback win last week have caused many fans to ignore major flaws that allowed the Steelers to essentially score at will on them late in the game last week. The Cowboys offensive line, though impressive, struggled to impose its will in typical fashion against the Steelers until a critical Steelers defender came out of the game late. This SHOULD have made Cowboys fans a little bit nervous, but the win drowned out an concerns for the future. The Ravens offense has performed incredibly poorly overall, but its beginning to trend upward exactly at the right time. The Ravens will miss Alex Lewis this week, but they're getting back a rested Marshal Yanda. The Ravens may also find success on the ground with the incredibly tackle-breaking ability of their rookie running back Kenneth Dixon who put on a yards-after-contact clinic last week. If the Ravens are to pull an upset tomorrow, they must utilize their suffocating run defense to put the ball into the hands of a rookie quarterback long enough to force him to make critical errors, and Joe Flacco must exploit mismatches in speed in the Cowboys secondary with two critical starters out.
I'm not saying I'm confident in a Ravens win at Dallas, but the likely deciding factors of this game are far more complex and nuanced than simply comparing the Ravens' and Cowboys' respective records. One thing is for sure: this game will garner a TON of viewership nationwide.
STAY TUNED LATE TONIGHT FOR THE WEEK 11 NFL PICKS!
Saturday, November 19, 2016
Sunday, November 13, 2016
RAVENS-BROWNS REACTION AND WEEK 10 NFL PREDICTIONS
Something about this NFL season has felt so fast--so brief. Here we are over halfway finished the season, and it seems as though things are just getting warmed up. Maybe for Ravens fans it's the fact that they've waited each week to see if the offense will fiiiiinally click. They've waited to see Breshad Perriman break out, they've waited to see how Steve Smith Sr. and Dennis Pitta would perform coming back from injuries, they've waited to see what Kenneth Dixon could add to the rushing attack, and they've waited to see what exactly Mike Wallace has left in the tank. They've waited to see if and when the switch to Marty Morhninweg as offensive coordinator would ultimately pay off, and, most of all, they've waited to see Joe Flacco finally play with confidence, accuracy, and proper mechanics so as to utilize the biggest collections of weapons he's ever had at his disposal. Fortunately for Ravens fans, I think they just got at least some of those questions answered.
Thursday night's game against the Browns wasn't exactly a clash of two league powerhouses. The Ravens came into the game with a 4-4 record and only one win in their last 5 games. The win against the Steelers was a pleasant surprise for many, though I have lost fear of a team that has gone 3-9 against the Ravens in the last 6 seasons. The problem was that the Ravens offense still couldn't get going against Pittsburgh despite the defense's impressive performance and another huge play from special teams. Then the Ravens were set to host a familiar foe on a short week; a foe that gave them first quarter fits in Cleveland earlier this season. I didn't buy into the idea that it would be an impossibly close game, but I assumed (rightly so) that the Browns would ultimately put Josh McCown back in the driver's seat because of his recent penchant for lighting up the Ravens defense. McCown had, after all, thrown for an average of 302 passing yards per game in his previous three meetings with the Ravens.
There was a moment in the second quarter that undoubtedly made Ravens fans nervous when the Browns drove effortlessly downfield, and their starting rookie quarterback, Cody Kessler, threw a touchdown pass to a frustratingly wide open fullback. The Ravens found themselves losing to an 0-9 team only days after beating the first place team in the division. That scoring drive would be the last success the Browns found, however, as the Ravens defense clamped down so hard in the second half that Cleveland could barely move. Baltimore's defense only allowed 37 total offensive yards in the second half. The Browns are the worst team in football, but they usually play incredibly close games against the Ravens regardless of their annual abysmal record.
Offensive progress, even over a bad team, is still welcome in Baltimore right now. Joe Flacco had his moments where he made two head-scratching throws that resulted in picks, and he appeared to simply not see open receivers at times. Flacco more than redeemed himself late, however, as he threw three well-placed touchdowns in the second half to three different receivers including Darren Waller and Breshad Perriman. The Ravens had high hopes for Perriman with his 4.24 second 40 yard dash and Waller with his 6'6" frame and an impressive 40 yard dash time of his own at 4.46 seconds. Waller, now that he's off his suspension for marijuana, is one of the fastest tight ends in the NFL. There was never any question that the Ravens had weapons, but there was question about their ability to get those weapons the ball.
Healthy quality offensive linemen have often been in short supply for Baltimore this season. The Ravens didn't win a single game with Ronnie Stanley out, and it didn't help that Marshal Yanda was out nearly as many weeks along with him. After a Browns player fell violently into the side of starting left guard Alex Lewis' knee, Joe Flacco found himself without the protection of BOTH of his starting guards as Marshal Yanda sat out the entire game. Flacco, nevertheless, stood in and threw more confidently than he's thrown all season to 9 different receivers. It appeared as though he finally played without fear in the second half of the game despite the ever-looming physical presence of the newest Brown, Jamie Collins. This tells me that much of Flacco's poor performance was do to his own psychological limitations. His fear of reinjuring his surgically repaired knee, and his lack of confidence in his offensive line appears to have finally dissipated enough for him to look like his old self en route to a throttling victory over a bad team. Remember that it wasn't long ago that the Ravens LOST to a bad Jets team, so this performance is unquestionably a sign of progress.
Nothing is more predictive of the Ravens' success than the health and availability of their starters. The bye week really allowed the Ravens to rest and retool in each phase of their game, and if they end up making it to the playoffs, they can look back at that 14 day span as the turning point of their season. Players such as Marshal Yanda, Elvis Dumervil, and Crocket Gillmore have had trouble finding their way back on to the field, but Baltimore has a 10 day break to rest, get healthy, and prepare to go on the road and face a strong, yet suddenly potentially vulnerable Cowboys team.
The Cowboys definitely didn't show any vulnerability in their last game which, coincidentally, happened to be against the Browns. The Cowboys won a decisive, dominant 35-10 victory over Cleveland, and helped to ensure the worst start in Browns history. The Cowboys, however, find themselves a bit banged up at some key positions just as they go into Pittsburgh to face a Steelers team that has played extremely well at home this season. Dallas' starting left tackle, Tyron Smith, did not participate most of the week, and he only participated on a limited basis on Friday. Cowboys starting strong safety, Barry Church, has been ruled out, and one of their starting corners Morris Claiborne is out with a groin injury. More troublesome still is the fact that Tyron Smith's backup, Chaz Green did not participate in Friday's practice, and starting left guard, Ronald Leary, only finally returned to practice on Friday after spending the rest of the week in concussion protocol.
The Cowboys' biggest strength is unquestionably their offensive line, but injuries could severely limit that strength. Ezekiel Elliot is a tremendous talent, but he'll have trouble putting his talent on display without holes to run through. The Steelers had been gashed by good running backs in the two weeks prior to their game against the Ravens, but both Ryan Shazier and Cameron Heyward returned to the field against the Ravens, and the Steelers run defense suddenly displayed the juice and intensity not seen since the previous generation of Steelers defenders took the field. It wouldn't come as a total shock to see Ezekiel Elliott held well under 100 rushing yards against this Steelers run defense, especially in light of the injuries to the Cowboys' offensive line.
I will, of course, be rooting for the Cowboys to beat the Steelers and extend Pittsburgh's losing streak, but if Dak and company can't manage to put down the Steelers, there is still value in a Steelers win. A Steelers win would give the Ravens a blueprint to beating the Cowboys next weekend. The Ravens are an even more highly rated run-stuffing team, and could benefit tremendously from film on how to shut down Zeke and Dak. It is for that reason that Sunday's game between the Cowboys and Steelers is the most important for Ravens fans and staff to watch. For the rest of the league, however, the game of the week to watch is almost certainly the Seahawks traveling to Foxboro to play a rested Patriots team with Dion Lewis possibly returning, and THAT brings us to this week's picks!
WEEK 10 NFL PICKS
PACKERS AT TITANS- It's difficult to know what to expect from the Packers at this point. Aaron Rodgers has seemed lost at times despite having already thrown 20 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions through the first half of the season, but over a third of those touchdowns have come in shootout losses to the Falcons and Colts in the past two weeks. The Packers have also fared incredibly poorly when facing quality defenses. The Titans certainly don't fall into the quality defense category, but Marcus Mariota should be able to trade scores with Rodgers for most of the game. If Rodgers can't win this game, I'm losing faith in him as an elite QB. PACKERS 31-27
VIKINGS AT REDSKINS- The Vikings defense is fantastic, but the Vikings' offensive personnel issues are simply too big to overcome right now. The Vikings offense has only put up 12 points per game in Minnesota's three consecutive losses. Without both of their offensive tackles, the Vikings simply can't protect Sam Bradford or run the football. The Redskins offense won't exactly run wild, especially without DeSean Jackson to help stretch the field, but they will inevitably find success as the game wears on because the Vikings defense will have been on the field for such an exhausting amount of time. REDSKINS 20-13
BEARS AT BUCCANEERS- The Bears offense simply can't score enough to keep up with the Bucs. The Buccaneers have lost two consecutive, high-scoring games against two of the league's top pass offenses in the Raiders and Falcons, but they're hosting a foe that ranks 31st in the league in points scored per game with 16.4. This won't be fun for the people of Chicago. BUCCANEERS 28-16
CHIEFS AT PANTHERS- This is actually one of the better matchups of the weekend for two teams that have both come alive as of late. The Chiefs defense has been able to limit some incredibly high-powered pass offenses in the last month. The held the Raiders to 10 points, the Colts to 14 points in Indianapolis, and the Saints to 21 points. The Panthers, on the other hand, finally got back on track by winning their last two games over the Cardinals and Rams. It's difficult to know which Panthers team will show up, but I don't think a home win over a heavily injured Cardinals team and a 13-10 road win over a horrendous Rams team is enough to make me believe Carolina can beat a Chiefs team that has already limited some impressive offensive teams both at home and on the road this season. CHIEFS 26-17
FALCONS AT EAGLES- The Falcons aren't undefeated, but they can move the ball on anyone they face. They even put up 24 points on the Seahawks in Seattle, but barely lost 26-24. Since that game, the Falcons haven't scored any less than 30 points in a game. The Eagles looked great at the beginning of the season, but their rookie QB has stumbled since their 3-0 start. I have a hard time believing he'll be able to outscore Matt Ryan, even if the Falcons will be on the road. The Eagles haven't lost a home game this season, but two out of three of their home games came within Carson Wentz's early hot streak, and the third was against the Vikings after the Vikings offense fell apart because of major injuries to critical offensive linemen. Matty Ice helps to solidify his case for MVP today. FALCONS 34-23
RAMS AT JETS- It would have been nice if the Ravens had caught the Jets when they were starting their third string quarterback, but the Ravens are actually a big part of the reason that's happening (Geno Smith tore his ACL on a brutal sack by Matt Judon). The Rams are not great, but they're good enough to beat the Jets in their current predicament. RAMS 17-14
BRONCOS AT SAINTS- After a rough start against some good teams, the Saints have begun to catch fire. As good as the Broncos defense is, it's difficult to imagine them being able to limit the Saints in New Orleans. If the Seahawks defense couldn't stifle the Saints offense in Nawlins, I can't imagine the Broncos will be able to do so to a degree that would allow them to outscore Drew Brees and company. SAINTS 27-20
TEXANS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars have been a massive disappointment after being picked as a dark horse chock full of young talent before the season began. The Texans have not won a road game yet this season, but the Jaguars have only won two games total. The Jaguars have, however, played some good teams extremely closely in Jacksonville. They may not be a winning team, but the Jags can go toe to toe with most teams at home. The Texans, on the other hand, are a totally different animal on the road. Their offense barely moves outside of Houston. JAGUARS 19-14
DOLPHINS AT CHARGERS- The Dolphins have been on quite the tear as of late. They won their last 3 games in a row, but all were at home in Miami. I would love to see the Fins upset Philip Rivers in San Diego, but the Chargers have been on a tear of their own as they've won 3 of their last 4 games. The Chargers were able to put up 43 points on the Titans, 33 points on the Falcons, and they beat the Broncos in San Diego 21-13. It's difficult to picture Jay Ajayi's heroics will be enough to outscore the Chargers three thousand miles away from South Beach. CHARGERS 31-21
COWBOYS AT STEELERS- The Cowboys have run over almost everyone they've faced this season, but they're about to run into a wall. With key injuries to offensive linemen and a revamped Steelers run defense, it's going to be a tall task for Dak Prescott to lead this team to victory on the road against a desperate Steelers team. Without one of their starting corners and their starting strong safety, it's difficult to imagine that the Cowboys will be able to shut down the Steelers the way the Ravens did last Sunday. This is a week that Jerry Jones will have thoughts of sticking Tony Romo in the game despite the wishes of everyone else in the world...except anyone in Romo's immediate family of course. No question Ravens fans should be rooting for the 'Boys though. STEELERS 28-17
49ERS AT CARDINALS- The 49ers can score, but they can't stop anyone else from scoring. CARDINALS 34-27
SEAHAWKS AT PATRIOTS- No Thomas Rawls, no Michael Bennett, and the Seahawks are going on the road in Foxboro to face the Patriots after a bye week. This is not the Seahawks defense of a few years ago. The way the Bills drove swiftly down the field in Seattle, it's no stretch to imagine the Patriots doing exactly the same thing but more often. Jimmy Graham is great, but he won't be nearly enough to outscore a rest, well-prepared Patriots team in Foxboro. We may see Dion Lewis take the field as well, and that could make the Patriots nearly unstoppable in the regular season. The Patriots' one weakness is uneven play from the secondary at times, but that won't matter enough to change the winner of this game. PATRIOTS 35-23
BENGALS AT GIANTS- The Bengals are coming off of a bye week, but their defense isn't good to limit a Giants offense that just finished putting up 28 points on a much stronger Eagle's D. The Giants should have enough firepower, especially when running no-huddle, to outscore the Bengals. If the Bengals are able to win this game, they may have turned the corner, but with only three wins, that's difficult to imagine. If they lose and fall to 3-5-1, that may be the nail in their season's figurative coffin. GIANTS 28-24
AFTER TWO WINS IN 5 DAYS, THE RAVENS HAVE EARNED A WELL-DESERVED WEEKEND OFF. DESPITE WHAT STUBBORN SKEPTICS MIGHT SAY, THE RAVENS HAVE ABSOLUTELY IMPROVED AND CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. ENJOY WATCHING THE REST OF THE LEAGUE BEAT EACH OTHER UP THIS WEEKEND, RAVENS NATION!!
AS ALWAYS,
GO RAVENS!!!
Thursday night's game against the Browns wasn't exactly a clash of two league powerhouses. The Ravens came into the game with a 4-4 record and only one win in their last 5 games. The win against the Steelers was a pleasant surprise for many, though I have lost fear of a team that has gone 3-9 against the Ravens in the last 6 seasons. The problem was that the Ravens offense still couldn't get going against Pittsburgh despite the defense's impressive performance and another huge play from special teams. Then the Ravens were set to host a familiar foe on a short week; a foe that gave them first quarter fits in Cleveland earlier this season. I didn't buy into the idea that it would be an impossibly close game, but I assumed (rightly so) that the Browns would ultimately put Josh McCown back in the driver's seat because of his recent penchant for lighting up the Ravens defense. McCown had, after all, thrown for an average of 302 passing yards per game in his previous three meetings with the Ravens.
There was a moment in the second quarter that undoubtedly made Ravens fans nervous when the Browns drove effortlessly downfield, and their starting rookie quarterback, Cody Kessler, threw a touchdown pass to a frustratingly wide open fullback. The Ravens found themselves losing to an 0-9 team only days after beating the first place team in the division. That scoring drive would be the last success the Browns found, however, as the Ravens defense clamped down so hard in the second half that Cleveland could barely move. Baltimore's defense only allowed 37 total offensive yards in the second half. The Browns are the worst team in football, but they usually play incredibly close games against the Ravens regardless of their annual abysmal record.
Offensive progress, even over a bad team, is still welcome in Baltimore right now. Joe Flacco had his moments where he made two head-scratching throws that resulted in picks, and he appeared to simply not see open receivers at times. Flacco more than redeemed himself late, however, as he threw three well-placed touchdowns in the second half to three different receivers including Darren Waller and Breshad Perriman. The Ravens had high hopes for Perriman with his 4.24 second 40 yard dash and Waller with his 6'6" frame and an impressive 40 yard dash time of his own at 4.46 seconds. Waller, now that he's off his suspension for marijuana, is one of the fastest tight ends in the NFL. There was never any question that the Ravens had weapons, but there was question about their ability to get those weapons the ball.
Healthy quality offensive linemen have often been in short supply for Baltimore this season. The Ravens didn't win a single game with Ronnie Stanley out, and it didn't help that Marshal Yanda was out nearly as many weeks along with him. After a Browns player fell violently into the side of starting left guard Alex Lewis' knee, Joe Flacco found himself without the protection of BOTH of his starting guards as Marshal Yanda sat out the entire game. Flacco, nevertheless, stood in and threw more confidently than he's thrown all season to 9 different receivers. It appeared as though he finally played without fear in the second half of the game despite the ever-looming physical presence of the newest Brown, Jamie Collins. This tells me that much of Flacco's poor performance was do to his own psychological limitations. His fear of reinjuring his surgically repaired knee, and his lack of confidence in his offensive line appears to have finally dissipated enough for him to look like his old self en route to a throttling victory over a bad team. Remember that it wasn't long ago that the Ravens LOST to a bad Jets team, so this performance is unquestionably a sign of progress.
Nothing is more predictive of the Ravens' success than the health and availability of their starters. The bye week really allowed the Ravens to rest and retool in each phase of their game, and if they end up making it to the playoffs, they can look back at that 14 day span as the turning point of their season. Players such as Marshal Yanda, Elvis Dumervil, and Crocket Gillmore have had trouble finding their way back on to the field, but Baltimore has a 10 day break to rest, get healthy, and prepare to go on the road and face a strong, yet suddenly potentially vulnerable Cowboys team.
The Cowboys definitely didn't show any vulnerability in their last game which, coincidentally, happened to be against the Browns. The Cowboys won a decisive, dominant 35-10 victory over Cleveland, and helped to ensure the worst start in Browns history. The Cowboys, however, find themselves a bit banged up at some key positions just as they go into Pittsburgh to face a Steelers team that has played extremely well at home this season. Dallas' starting left tackle, Tyron Smith, did not participate most of the week, and he only participated on a limited basis on Friday. Cowboys starting strong safety, Barry Church, has been ruled out, and one of their starting corners Morris Claiborne is out with a groin injury. More troublesome still is the fact that Tyron Smith's backup, Chaz Green did not participate in Friday's practice, and starting left guard, Ronald Leary, only finally returned to practice on Friday after spending the rest of the week in concussion protocol.
The Cowboys' biggest strength is unquestionably their offensive line, but injuries could severely limit that strength. Ezekiel Elliot is a tremendous talent, but he'll have trouble putting his talent on display without holes to run through. The Steelers had been gashed by good running backs in the two weeks prior to their game against the Ravens, but both Ryan Shazier and Cameron Heyward returned to the field against the Ravens, and the Steelers run defense suddenly displayed the juice and intensity not seen since the previous generation of Steelers defenders took the field. It wouldn't come as a total shock to see Ezekiel Elliott held well under 100 rushing yards against this Steelers run defense, especially in light of the injuries to the Cowboys' offensive line.
I will, of course, be rooting for the Cowboys to beat the Steelers and extend Pittsburgh's losing streak, but if Dak and company can't manage to put down the Steelers, there is still value in a Steelers win. A Steelers win would give the Ravens a blueprint to beating the Cowboys next weekend. The Ravens are an even more highly rated run-stuffing team, and could benefit tremendously from film on how to shut down Zeke and Dak. It is for that reason that Sunday's game between the Cowboys and Steelers is the most important for Ravens fans and staff to watch. For the rest of the league, however, the game of the week to watch is almost certainly the Seahawks traveling to Foxboro to play a rested Patriots team with Dion Lewis possibly returning, and THAT brings us to this week's picks!
WEEK 10 NFL PICKS
PACKERS AT TITANS- It's difficult to know what to expect from the Packers at this point. Aaron Rodgers has seemed lost at times despite having already thrown 20 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions through the first half of the season, but over a third of those touchdowns have come in shootout losses to the Falcons and Colts in the past two weeks. The Packers have also fared incredibly poorly when facing quality defenses. The Titans certainly don't fall into the quality defense category, but Marcus Mariota should be able to trade scores with Rodgers for most of the game. If Rodgers can't win this game, I'm losing faith in him as an elite QB. PACKERS 31-27
VIKINGS AT REDSKINS- The Vikings defense is fantastic, but the Vikings' offensive personnel issues are simply too big to overcome right now. The Vikings offense has only put up 12 points per game in Minnesota's three consecutive losses. Without both of their offensive tackles, the Vikings simply can't protect Sam Bradford or run the football. The Redskins offense won't exactly run wild, especially without DeSean Jackson to help stretch the field, but they will inevitably find success as the game wears on because the Vikings defense will have been on the field for such an exhausting amount of time. REDSKINS 20-13
BEARS AT BUCCANEERS- The Bears offense simply can't score enough to keep up with the Bucs. The Buccaneers have lost two consecutive, high-scoring games against two of the league's top pass offenses in the Raiders and Falcons, but they're hosting a foe that ranks 31st in the league in points scored per game with 16.4. This won't be fun for the people of Chicago. BUCCANEERS 28-16
CHIEFS AT PANTHERS- This is actually one of the better matchups of the weekend for two teams that have both come alive as of late. The Chiefs defense has been able to limit some incredibly high-powered pass offenses in the last month. The held the Raiders to 10 points, the Colts to 14 points in Indianapolis, and the Saints to 21 points. The Panthers, on the other hand, finally got back on track by winning their last two games over the Cardinals and Rams. It's difficult to know which Panthers team will show up, but I don't think a home win over a heavily injured Cardinals team and a 13-10 road win over a horrendous Rams team is enough to make me believe Carolina can beat a Chiefs team that has already limited some impressive offensive teams both at home and on the road this season. CHIEFS 26-17
FALCONS AT EAGLES- The Falcons aren't undefeated, but they can move the ball on anyone they face. They even put up 24 points on the Seahawks in Seattle, but barely lost 26-24. Since that game, the Falcons haven't scored any less than 30 points in a game. The Eagles looked great at the beginning of the season, but their rookie QB has stumbled since their 3-0 start. I have a hard time believing he'll be able to outscore Matt Ryan, even if the Falcons will be on the road. The Eagles haven't lost a home game this season, but two out of three of their home games came within Carson Wentz's early hot streak, and the third was against the Vikings after the Vikings offense fell apart because of major injuries to critical offensive linemen. Matty Ice helps to solidify his case for MVP today. FALCONS 34-23
RAMS AT JETS- It would have been nice if the Ravens had caught the Jets when they were starting their third string quarterback, but the Ravens are actually a big part of the reason that's happening (Geno Smith tore his ACL on a brutal sack by Matt Judon). The Rams are not great, but they're good enough to beat the Jets in their current predicament. RAMS 17-14
BRONCOS AT SAINTS- After a rough start against some good teams, the Saints have begun to catch fire. As good as the Broncos defense is, it's difficult to imagine them being able to limit the Saints in New Orleans. If the Seahawks defense couldn't stifle the Saints offense in Nawlins, I can't imagine the Broncos will be able to do so to a degree that would allow them to outscore Drew Brees and company. SAINTS 27-20
TEXANS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars have been a massive disappointment after being picked as a dark horse chock full of young talent before the season began. The Texans have not won a road game yet this season, but the Jaguars have only won two games total. The Jaguars have, however, played some good teams extremely closely in Jacksonville. They may not be a winning team, but the Jags can go toe to toe with most teams at home. The Texans, on the other hand, are a totally different animal on the road. Their offense barely moves outside of Houston. JAGUARS 19-14
DOLPHINS AT CHARGERS- The Dolphins have been on quite the tear as of late. They won their last 3 games in a row, but all were at home in Miami. I would love to see the Fins upset Philip Rivers in San Diego, but the Chargers have been on a tear of their own as they've won 3 of their last 4 games. The Chargers were able to put up 43 points on the Titans, 33 points on the Falcons, and they beat the Broncos in San Diego 21-13. It's difficult to picture Jay Ajayi's heroics will be enough to outscore the Chargers three thousand miles away from South Beach. CHARGERS 31-21
COWBOYS AT STEELERS- The Cowboys have run over almost everyone they've faced this season, but they're about to run into a wall. With key injuries to offensive linemen and a revamped Steelers run defense, it's going to be a tall task for Dak Prescott to lead this team to victory on the road against a desperate Steelers team. Without one of their starting corners and their starting strong safety, it's difficult to imagine that the Cowboys will be able to shut down the Steelers the way the Ravens did last Sunday. This is a week that Jerry Jones will have thoughts of sticking Tony Romo in the game despite the wishes of everyone else in the world...except anyone in Romo's immediate family of course. No question Ravens fans should be rooting for the 'Boys though. STEELERS 28-17
49ERS AT CARDINALS- The 49ers can score, but they can't stop anyone else from scoring. CARDINALS 34-27
SEAHAWKS AT PATRIOTS- No Thomas Rawls, no Michael Bennett, and the Seahawks are going on the road in Foxboro to face the Patriots after a bye week. This is not the Seahawks defense of a few years ago. The way the Bills drove swiftly down the field in Seattle, it's no stretch to imagine the Patriots doing exactly the same thing but more often. Jimmy Graham is great, but he won't be nearly enough to outscore a rest, well-prepared Patriots team in Foxboro. We may see Dion Lewis take the field as well, and that could make the Patriots nearly unstoppable in the regular season. The Patriots' one weakness is uneven play from the secondary at times, but that won't matter enough to change the winner of this game. PATRIOTS 35-23
BENGALS AT GIANTS- The Bengals are coming off of a bye week, but their defense isn't good to limit a Giants offense that just finished putting up 28 points on a much stronger Eagle's D. The Giants should have enough firepower, especially when running no-huddle, to outscore the Bengals. If the Bengals are able to win this game, they may have turned the corner, but with only three wins, that's difficult to imagine. If they lose and fall to 3-5-1, that may be the nail in their season's figurative coffin. GIANTS 28-24
AFTER TWO WINS IN 5 DAYS, THE RAVENS HAVE EARNED A WELL-DESERVED WEEKEND OFF. DESPITE WHAT STUBBORN SKEPTICS MIGHT SAY, THE RAVENS HAVE ABSOLUTELY IMPROVED AND CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. ENJOY WATCHING THE REST OF THE LEAGUE BEAT EACH OTHER UP THIS WEEKEND, RAVENS NATION!!
AS ALWAYS,
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, November 6, 2016
RAVENS-STEELERS ANALYSIS AND WEEK 9 NFL PICKS
It's difficult to know what to expect from the Ravens and Steelers week. Neither team has won in quite some time, and both teams are coming off of sorely needed bye weeks. The Steelers looked unquestionably more dominant in each of their four wins than the Ravens did in any of their 3, but schematic familiarity and sheer rivalry-fueled animosity has meant that the better overall team doesn't always win. The Ravens have been unquestionably the worse team overall for a season and a half now; there's no way around that. Baltimore, nevertheless, swept the Steelers last season despite having their worst regular season record in nearly a decade.
It's always tempting to rave about the talent at the Steelers' disposal. Le'Veon Bell is a fantastic, versatile running back, and Antonio Brown is one of the most talented receivers in the league. Ben Roethlisberger has appeared to be the best quarterback in the league for stretches of games, and analysts always speak about the trio of Bell, Brown, and Ben being the most talented RB/WR/QB combo in the league. There are, however, a few major factors that tend to derail that idea when it comes to Ravens-Steelers games. The first is the fact that Antonio Brown has almost been a total non-factor in his career against the Ravens. In thirteen career games against Baltimore, Brown has accumulated a total of one touchdown. You read that correctly...one touchdown. Brown has also not been a major factor from a yardage standpoint as he has only caught for 100+ yards in two of his 13 games against the Ravens. Le'Veon Bell has been injured or suspended far too often to be thought of as a durable, dependable all-purpose back, and Ben Roethlisberger seldom stays healthy over the course of an NFL season. The Ravens have, furthermore, won 8 of the last 11 contests against the Steelers since the departure of Bruce Arians as the Steelers' offensive coordinator after the 2010 season.
Much like the lowly Rams always seem to give the Seahawks fits, so too do the Ravens seem to have the Steelers' number over the past 5 seasons. Does that guarantee a win today? Of course not, but it should absolutely give Baltimore fans hope that their team can pull off a win over a team that has unquestionably looked better than they have over the first half of this season--especially with the questionable status of Ben Roethlisberger.
Big Ben will likely play against the Ravens, but one can't help but wonder if he'll be a little ginger on that recently-scoped knee or whether his not yet fully healed knee will slow him down a step. He could proceed to have a sensational game and not be too terrifically bothered by it because of painkillers, but something tells me that a week of limited practice means he couldn't possibly feel 100%.
Ben's health isn't the only thing that could bode well for the Ravens. The return to health of Baltimore's offensive line should help dramatically as they look to exploit a Steelers run defense that has struggled over the last couple of games. Possibly the biggest factor that the Ravens could benefit from tremendously is a comparative lack of a pass rush from Pittsburgh. The Steelers as a team only have two more sacks than Terrell Suggs this season--and Sizzle has missed the last two games. Joe Flacco's biggest obstacle thus far has been finding the time and confidence to step into his throws and find open receivers downfield. If the Steelers can't manage to dial up pressure and force Joe to make errant throws, he actually has enough weapons to make this a long day for Pittsburgh.
I'd like to think that the Ravens offense at close to full strength has a chance to have decent production against the Steelers defense, but schematic familiarity could nullify some of that to a degree that statistics from early games this season can't predict. History would suggest that this will be a 20-17 or 23-20 win for one of these teams, but there has been the occasional statistical outlier game like that of Week 1 in 2011 where the Ravens won 35-7 or Week 2 of 2014 where the Ravens won 26-6, or like Week 9 of 2014 where Big Ben threw 6 touchdowns and absolutely blasted the Ravens after Jimmy Smith went down the week prior. Come to think of it, no game in 2014 WASN'T a big win as the Ravens proceeded to beat up on the Steelers in the playoffs 31-17. In 2015, however, the Ravens-Steelers rivalry reverted to its usual impossibly close margin of victory for both contests.
The Ravens, on paper, don't appear as good as the Steelers, but the Steelers simply aren't the Super Bowl favorites that many people assumed they'd be early in the season. Big Ben has had a total of 3 complete seasons over 13 years in the league, and it is largely that reason that the Steelers will typically have the potential to be a truly great team but struggle to dominate consistently. Let's hope that this is one day where he struggles mightily against a healthy Ravens team.
THE PICKS
I apologize that time this week has limited my ability to post more through explanations of each matchup. I will briefly post a list of the winners of each game:
RAVENS 24-20
COWBOYS 34-13
CHIEFS 31-17
MIAMI 23-21
EAGLES 30-21
PANTHERS 20-17
CHARGERS 27-20
PACKERS 31-28
RAIDERS 33-24
SEAHAWKS 31-27
THIS IS IT, RAVENS FANS. THIS IS THE MATCHUP WE WAIT FOR ALL SEASON, EVERY SEASON. THE NFL HASN'T BEEN ENTERTAINING THIS SEASON, BUT LET'S HOPE TODAY CHANGES THAT IF ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
It's always tempting to rave about the talent at the Steelers' disposal. Le'Veon Bell is a fantastic, versatile running back, and Antonio Brown is one of the most talented receivers in the league. Ben Roethlisberger has appeared to be the best quarterback in the league for stretches of games, and analysts always speak about the trio of Bell, Brown, and Ben being the most talented RB/WR/QB combo in the league. There are, however, a few major factors that tend to derail that idea when it comes to Ravens-Steelers games. The first is the fact that Antonio Brown has almost been a total non-factor in his career against the Ravens. In thirteen career games against Baltimore, Brown has accumulated a total of one touchdown. You read that correctly...one touchdown. Brown has also not been a major factor from a yardage standpoint as he has only caught for 100+ yards in two of his 13 games against the Ravens. Le'Veon Bell has been injured or suspended far too often to be thought of as a durable, dependable all-purpose back, and Ben Roethlisberger seldom stays healthy over the course of an NFL season. The Ravens have, furthermore, won 8 of the last 11 contests against the Steelers since the departure of Bruce Arians as the Steelers' offensive coordinator after the 2010 season.
Much like the lowly Rams always seem to give the Seahawks fits, so too do the Ravens seem to have the Steelers' number over the past 5 seasons. Does that guarantee a win today? Of course not, but it should absolutely give Baltimore fans hope that their team can pull off a win over a team that has unquestionably looked better than they have over the first half of this season--especially with the questionable status of Ben Roethlisberger.
Big Ben will likely play against the Ravens, but one can't help but wonder if he'll be a little ginger on that recently-scoped knee or whether his not yet fully healed knee will slow him down a step. He could proceed to have a sensational game and not be too terrifically bothered by it because of painkillers, but something tells me that a week of limited practice means he couldn't possibly feel 100%.
Ben's health isn't the only thing that could bode well for the Ravens. The return to health of Baltimore's offensive line should help dramatically as they look to exploit a Steelers run defense that has struggled over the last couple of games. Possibly the biggest factor that the Ravens could benefit from tremendously is a comparative lack of a pass rush from Pittsburgh. The Steelers as a team only have two more sacks than Terrell Suggs this season--and Sizzle has missed the last two games. Joe Flacco's biggest obstacle thus far has been finding the time and confidence to step into his throws and find open receivers downfield. If the Steelers can't manage to dial up pressure and force Joe to make errant throws, he actually has enough weapons to make this a long day for Pittsburgh.
I'd like to think that the Ravens offense at close to full strength has a chance to have decent production against the Steelers defense, but schematic familiarity could nullify some of that to a degree that statistics from early games this season can't predict. History would suggest that this will be a 20-17 or 23-20 win for one of these teams, but there has been the occasional statistical outlier game like that of Week 1 in 2011 where the Ravens won 35-7 or Week 2 of 2014 where the Ravens won 26-6, or like Week 9 of 2014 where Big Ben threw 6 touchdowns and absolutely blasted the Ravens after Jimmy Smith went down the week prior. Come to think of it, no game in 2014 WASN'T a big win as the Ravens proceeded to beat up on the Steelers in the playoffs 31-17. In 2015, however, the Ravens-Steelers rivalry reverted to its usual impossibly close margin of victory for both contests.
The Ravens, on paper, don't appear as good as the Steelers, but the Steelers simply aren't the Super Bowl favorites that many people assumed they'd be early in the season. Big Ben has had a total of 3 complete seasons over 13 years in the league, and it is largely that reason that the Steelers will typically have the potential to be a truly great team but struggle to dominate consistently. Let's hope that this is one day where he struggles mightily against a healthy Ravens team.
THE PICKS
I apologize that time this week has limited my ability to post more through explanations of each matchup. I will briefly post a list of the winners of each game:
RAVENS 24-20
COWBOYS 34-13
CHIEFS 31-17
MIAMI 23-21
EAGLES 30-21
PANTHERS 20-17
CHARGERS 27-20
PACKERS 31-28
RAIDERS 33-24
SEAHAWKS 31-27
THIS IS IT, RAVENS FANS. THIS IS THE MATCHUP WE WAIT FOR ALL SEASON, EVERY SEASON. THE NFL HASN'T BEEN ENTERTAINING THIS SEASON, BUT LET'S HOPE TODAY CHANGES THAT IF ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
RAVENS-STEELERS ANALYSIS AND WEEK 9 NFL PICKS
It's difficult to know what to expect from the Ravens and Steelers week. Neither team has won in quite some time, and both teams are coming off of sorely needed bye weeks. The Steelers looked unquestionably more dominant in each of their four wins than the Ravens did in any of their 3, but schematic familiarity and sheer rivalry-fueled animosity has meant that the better overall team doesn't always win. The Ravens have been unquestionably the worse team overall for a season and a half now; there's no way around that. Baltimore, nevertheless, swept the Steelers last season despite having their worst regular season record in nearly a decade.
It's always tempting to rave about the talent at the Steelers' disposal. Le'Veon Bell is a fantastic, versatile running back, and Antonio Brown is one of the most talented receivers in the league. Ben Roethlisberger has appeared to be the best quarterback in the league for stretches of games, and analysts always speak about the trio of Bell, Brown, and Ben being the most talented RB/WR/QB combo in the league. There are, however, a few major factors that tend to derail that idea when it comes to Ravens-Steelers games. The first is the fact that Antonio Brown has almost been a total non-factor in his career against the Ravens. In thirteen career games against Baltimore, Brown has accumulated a total of one touchdown. You read that correctly...one touchdown. Brown has also not been a major factor from a yardage standpoint as he has only caught for 100+ yards in two of his 13 games against the Ravens. Le'Veon Bell has been injured or suspended far too often to be thought of as a durable, dependable all-purpose back, and Ben Roethlisberger seldom stays healthy over the course of an NFL season. The Ravens have, furthermore, won 8 of the last 11 contests against the Steelers since the departure of Bruce Arians as the Steelers' offensive coordinator after the 2010 season.
Much like the lowly Rams always seem to give the Seahawks fits, so too do the Ravens seem to have the Steelers' number over the past 5 seasons. Does that guarantee a win today? Of course not, but it should absolutely give Baltimore fans hope that their team can pull off a win over a team that has unquestionably looked better than they have over the first half of this season--especially with the questionable status of Ben Roethlisberger.
Big Ben will likely play against the Ravens, but one can't help but wonder if he'll be a little ginger on that recently-scoped knee or whether his not yet fully healed knee will slow him down a step. He could proceed to have a sensational game and not be too terrifically bothered by it because of painkillers, but something tells me that a week of limited practice means he couldn't possibly feel 100%.
Ben's health isn't the only thing that could bode well for the Ravens. The return to health of Baltimore's offensive line should help dramatically as they look to exploit a Steelers run defense that has struggled over the last couple of games. Possibly the biggest factor that the Ravens could benefit from tremendously is a comparative lack of a pass rush from Pittsburgh. The Steelers as a team only have two more sacks than Terrell Suggs this season--and Sizzle has missed the last two games. Joe Flacco's biggest obstacle thus far has been finding the time and confidence to step into his throws and find open receivers downfield. If the Steelers can't manage to dial up pressure and force Joe to make errant throws, he actually has enough weapons to make this a long day for Pittsburgh.
I'd like to think that the Ravens offense at close to full strength has a chance to have decent production against the Steelers defense, but schematic familiarity could nullify some of that to a degree that statistics from early games this season can't predict. History would suggest that this will be a 20-17 or 23-20 win for one of these teams, but there has been the occasional statistical outlier game like that of Week 1 in 2011 where the Ravens won 35-7 or Week 2 of 2014 where the Ravens won 26-6, or like Week 9 of 2014 where Big Ben threw 6 touchdowns and absolutely blasted the Ravens after Jimmy Smith went down the week prior. Come to think of it, no game in 2014 WASN'T a big win as the Ravens proceeded to beat up on the Steelers in the playoffs 31-17. In 2015, however, the Ravens-Steelers rivalry reverted to its usual impossibly close margin of victory for both contests.
The Ravens, on paper, don't appear as good as the Steelers, but the Steelers simply aren't the Super Bowl favorites that many people assumed they'd be early in the season. Big Ben has had a total of 3 complete seasons over 13 years in the league, and it is largely that reason that the Steelers will typically have the potential to be a truly great team but struggle to dominate consistently. Let's hope that this is one day where he struggles mightily against a healthy Ravens team.
THE PICKS
I apologize that time this week has limited my ability to post more through explanations of each matchup. I will briefly post a list of the winners of each game:
RAVENS 24-20
COWBOYS 34-13
CHIEFS 31-17
MIAMI 23-21
EAGLES 30-21
PANTHERS 20-17
CHARGERS 27-20
PACKERS 31-28
RAIDERS 33-24
SEAHAWKS 31-27
THIS IS IT, RAVENS FANS. THIS IS THE MATCHUP WE WAIT FOR ALL SEASON, EVERY SEASON. THE NFL HASN'T BEEN ENTERTAINING THIS SEASON, BUT LET'S HOPE TODAY CHANGES THAT IF ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
It's always tempting to rave about the talent at the Steelers' disposal. Le'Veon Bell is a fantastic, versatile running back, and Antonio Brown is one of the most talented receivers in the league. Ben Roethlisberger has appeared to be the best quarterback in the league for stretches of games, and analysts always speak about the trio of Bell, Brown, and Ben being the most talented RB/WR/QB combo in the league. There are, however, a few major factors that tend to derail that idea when it comes to Ravens-Steelers games. The first is the fact that Antonio Brown has almost been a total non-factor in his career against the Ravens. In thirteen career games against Baltimore, Brown has accumulated a total of one touchdown. You read that correctly...one touchdown. Brown has also not been a major factor from a yardage standpoint as he has only caught for 100+ yards in two of his 13 games against the Ravens. Le'Veon Bell has been injured or suspended far too often to be thought of as a durable, dependable all-purpose back, and Ben Roethlisberger seldom stays healthy over the course of an NFL season. The Ravens have, furthermore, won 8 of the last 11 contests against the Steelers since the departure of Bruce Arians as the Steelers' offensive coordinator after the 2010 season.
Much like the lowly Rams always seem to give the Seahawks fits, so too do the Ravens seem to have the Steelers' number over the past 5 seasons. Does that guarantee a win today? Of course not, but it should absolutely give Baltimore fans hope that their team can pull off a win over a team that has unquestionably looked better than they have over the first half of this season--especially with the questionable status of Ben Roethlisberger.
Big Ben will likely play against the Ravens, but one can't help but wonder if he'll be a little ginger on that recently-scoped knee or whether his not yet fully healed knee will slow him down a step. He could proceed to have a sensational game and not be too terrifically bothered by it because of painkillers, but something tells me that a week of limited practice means he couldn't possibly feel 100%.
Ben's health isn't the only thing that could bode well for the Ravens. The return to health of Baltimore's offensive line should help dramatically as they look to exploit a Steelers run defense that has struggled over the last couple of games. Possibly the biggest factor that the Ravens could benefit from tremendously is a comparative lack of a pass rush from Pittsburgh. The Steelers as a team only have two more sacks than Terrell Suggs this season--and Sizzle has missed the last two games. Joe Flacco's biggest obstacle thus far has been finding the time and confidence to step into his throws and find open receivers downfield. If the Steelers can't manage to dial up pressure and force Joe to make errant throws, he actually has enough weapons to make this a long day for Pittsburgh.
I'd like to think that the Ravens offense at close to full strength has a chance to have decent production against the Steelers defense, but schematic familiarity could nullify some of that to a degree that statistics from early games this season can't predict. History would suggest that this will be a 20-17 or 23-20 win for one of these teams, but there has been the occasional statistical outlier game like that of Week 1 in 2011 where the Ravens won 35-7 or Week 2 of 2014 where the Ravens won 26-6, or like Week 9 of 2014 where Big Ben threw 6 touchdowns and absolutely blasted the Ravens after Jimmy Smith went down the week prior. Come to think of it, no game in 2014 WASN'T a big win as the Ravens proceeded to beat up on the Steelers in the playoffs 31-17. In 2015, however, the Ravens-Steelers rivalry reverted to its usual impossibly close margin of victory for both contests.
The Ravens, on paper, don't appear as good as the Steelers, but the Steelers simply aren't the Super Bowl favorites that many people assumed they'd be early in the season. Big Ben has had a total of 3 complete seasons over 13 years in the league, and it is largely that reason that the Steelers will typically have the potential to be a truly great team but struggle to dominate consistently. Let's hope that this is one day where he struggles mightily against a healthy Ravens team.
THE PICKS
I apologize that time this week has limited my ability to post more through explanations of each matchup. I will briefly post a list of the winners of each game:
RAVENS 24-20
COWBOYS 34-13
CHIEFS 31-17
MIAMI 23-21
EAGLES 30-21
PANTHERS 20-17
CHARGERS 27-20
PACKERS 31-28
RAIDERS 33-24
SEAHAWKS 31-27
THIS IS IT, RAVENS FANS. THIS IS THE MATCHUP WE WAIT FOR ALL SEASON, EVERY SEASON. THE NFL HASN'T BEEN ENTERTAINING THIS SEASON, BUT LET'S HOPE TODAY CHANGES THAT IF ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Saturday, October 29, 2016
WEEK 8 NFL PICKS AND RAVENS BYE WEEK BREAK DOWN
Nothing about the last month of NFL football has instilled confidence in Ravens fans that their team will come anywhere close to earning a playoff berth. As if three painfully close losses to relatively competitive teams weren't enough, the Ravens gave away a halftime lead and ultimately found themselves soundly beaten by one of the worst teams in the NFL last Sunday.
Close losses to the Raiders, Redskins, and Giants could all have been narrow wins were it not for over-aggressive decision-making errors on the part of John Harbaugh, but that certainly didn't mean he was the sole reason they lost. Harbaugh, in fact, made zero such game-changing over-aggressive errors against the Jets, and the Ravens suffered their worst loss of the season.
If you had told me before the Jets game that Harbaugh would be restrained in his decisions, Mike Wallace would catch for 120 yards, and Joe Flacco would have over 200 passing yards in the first half of the game, I probably would have said that the Ravens would have blown out a 1-5 Jets team. Those statistics, however, fail to take into account a major fundamental issue with this Ravens team.
I spent much of this last week listening to sports radio callers talk about Joe Flacco simply not being that good. They insisted that he's always just been mediocre and that now it's simply showing up more because the team lacks tough, "alpha" playmakers such as Anquan Boldin to whom Joe could simply throw the ball up and trust Q would come down with it. I wrestled with this idea because it didn't quite make sense. Joe Flacco clearly isn't Drew Brees or Tom Brady. He doesn't have superb mobility or pinpoint accuracy on passes released 1.5 seconds after the snap of the ball. He has, however, shined brilliantly in many games for years. He has outplayed Brady on multiple occasions in the playoffs, and he's outplayed Ben Roethlisberger and won 7 of his last ten games against the Steelers. So what is it that's making him look so much worse now?
Joe had little offensive success with Marc Trestman as offensive coordinator, and, thus, the Ravens got rid of Trestman. Marty Mornhinweg stepped in and successfully reintroduced the element of the deep passing game, but the Ravens immediately dropped two straight games to teams without winning records. What then is the problem? It was easy to criticize Marc Trestman and John Harbaugh as they certainly deserved much of the blame for the first three losses, but last week's loss to the Jets has made it clear that, more than anything, a lack of quality personnel at key positions was mostly to blame for the Ravens' month-long skid. Injuries certainly had something to do with it, but it's the lack of depth behind injured starters that makes this team so incredibly disappointing.
Baltimore had an opportunity to sign a quality backup offensive tackle when they brought in Jake Long and appeared to have an agreement in place. Long ultimately declined the offer as the proposed contract contained clauses that would mean he'd receive nearly nothing if he suffered any sort of serious injury. I have spent all week wishing the Ravens would have offered him a reasonable amount of guaranteed money for a backup anyway. Ideally Long wouldn't have much opportunity to become injured as he'd only play when starting left tackle, Ronnie Stanley, was hurt. It was already a risky decision to leave two rookies charged with holding down the left side of the offensive line, but having no legitimate backup to the left tackle is a new level of irresponsible management.
I watched old highlights of great plays and drives by Flacco all this week and realized that nearly every one of them had something in common: quality pass protection. Watching the 2011 game-winning drive in Week 9 in Pittsburgh, I was reminded that Joe had 4 Pro Bowl linemen and Michael Oher giving him time to make good reads, set his feet, and deliver strikes to a receiving corps no better than the one the Ravens currently possess. Bryant McKinnie, Ben Grubbs, Matt Birk, Marshal Yanda, and Oher were all durable, physical, experienced, talented offensive linemen. I then took a look at the offensive line the Ravens fielded last Sunday against the Jets and realized that not only did it lack Pro Bowl-caliber talent, but it also featured little starting experience. Jeremy Zuttah is was the only player with more than just 2 full seasons under his belt. Alex Lewis was stuck at left tackle in Ronnie Stanley's absence. Lewis was only just getting his feet wet at guard before he was stuck in a position that he's simply not ready to play at the NFL level.
Beyond Lewis playing out of position, the Ravens offensive line for the last two weeks has simply been devoid of serious talent. Jeremy Zuttah has the most experience, but he was exposed against the Jets as New York blitzed linebackers right into both A-gaps at once to prey upon his weakness in pass protection and collapse the pocket right up the middle. Few things rattle Joe Flacco more than a pocket rapidly collapsing in his face. He has such little trust in this line's ability to keep him upright and give him time to set and throw that he ends up passing off his back foot almost exclusively. Joe was already stepping gingerly with his left leg less than a year following his ACL tear, but now he has been frequently running for his life and throwing ill-advised, hurried passes that fall either way off the mark or into the hands of defenders.
One of the most idiotic comments I heard repeated by fans on the radio was that the Ravens lost because they didn't attempt to run the football more. It's true that the Ravens ran the football only a handful of times in the second half of last week's game, but much of that had to do with the fact that they lost yards or rushed for no gain on each of those rushing attempts. The Ravens offensive linemen couldn't open up any sort of running lanes, and continuing unsuccessfully to run the ball would have done absolutely nothing to change ultimate outcome of the game. What was even more frustrating was the radio commentators buying into that point. I have certainly agreed in the past that the Ravens have had to establish the run to take pressure off of Flacco in order to open up the passing game, but last week's game was simply not one of those situations where either the run or pass was functioning.
The painful loss to the New York Jets was not about play-calling, and it was not about John Harbaugh. It was, instead, about a lack of quality offensive linemen. Only two starters, Marshal Yanda and Ronnie Stanley, sat out the game, but the Ravens offensive line appeared to have backup quality linemen across the board except maybe Rick Wagner. I would implore Ozzie Newsome to make a trade for a quality offensive lineman if I were ever given an audience with the man. I even heard that it was rumored the Ravens were shopping Kamar Aiken in order to negotiate some kind of a trade, but with the trade deadline only two days away, I'm not holding out much hope that a deal gets done.
It would be a tremendous mistake to bank on the idea of the Ravens front office bolstering the offensive line through a last minute trade considering they're working with just over $2 million in cap room. What the Ravens organization and coaching staff must instead do is hope that their offensive line can become and stay reasonably healthy. Beyond the health of the offensive line, the rest of the Ravens roster must make a valiant effort to return to health at key positions. The Ravens played without 5 Pro Bowlers and their 2016 first round pick last week...and it showed. Without Steve Smith Sr. there's little attitude and fire on offense. Without Marshal Yanda, there's little push up front to create running lanes, and without Suggs the Ravens struggled horribly to contain the Jets' ground attack. It's lucky for the Ravens that the rest of the AFC North division is also in a total tailspin as of late with major injuries to playmakers on each of the other three squads.
If the Ravens can't find a way to beat a Steelers team that may start a hobbled Big Ben or no Big Ben at all, this season is basically over. Despite a triumphant 3-0 start, this team has looked far more like the one that struggled valiantly through 2015 than the upgraded unit fans all hoped they'd be in 2016. No longer impeded by Marc Trestman's inferior play-calling and hopefully no longer stifled by John Harbaugh's self-proclaimed "aggressive" decision-making, the Ravens players have only themselves to blame if they fail going forward.
Despite the doom and gloom of 4 straight losses, there were some bright spots during the Jets game. Matt Judon made the first and second sack of his career, and Brandon Williams played out of his mind. Before he had taken any big hits, Joe Flacco actually looked on point with a masterful 53 yard bomb pass to Mike Wallace who had beaten two defenders deep. Joe put the ball right over top of Wallace and hit him in stride for the huge gain. Increasing the number of big plays such as that one will go a long way to turning this offense around, and getting healthy offensive linemen as well as Steve Smith Sr. back will help open things up even further for Wallace. The former Viking/ Dolphin/Steeler is actually on pace to have 1000+ receiving yards and 6-7 touchdowns this season, and he has proven an excellent stop-gap replacement for Torrey Smith while Breshad Perriman develops.
Ok, Baltimore, take a deep breath. The bye week offers Ravens fans a rare, stress-free opportunity to kick back and simply watch football, so with that, let's take a look at this week's picks!
WEEK 8 NFL PICKS
REDSKINS AT BENGALS- The Bengals haven't looked amazing this season, but the return of Tyler Eifert does a lot to open up their offense. Josh Norman won't be able to totally shut down arguably the most talented receiver in football, A.J. Green, but he should at least limit him to a certain degree. Ultimately the Bengals offense with a healthy Eifert is simply more than the Redskins defense will be able to handle on the road. I sure hope the Skins prove me wrong on this one though. BENGALS 31-24
CHIEFS AT COLTS- The Chiefs have been better than the Colts thus far, but the Colts will finally have their top 3 receivers back for the first time in weeks when they face the Chiefs in Indy this Sunday. The Chiefs are 1-2 on the road and the Colts are 2-1 at home. COLTS 28-17
RAIDERS AT BUCCANEERS- The Raiders have struggled at home this season...but who cares? They're going on the road where they're 4-0 thus far in 2016. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, have not won a single game in Tampa Bay this season, and they'll likely struggle to make this their first. RAIDERS 33-20
SEAHAWKS AT SAINTS- The Seahawks won't be able to stop the Saints with Kam Chancellor and Michael Bennett out. This will be a rare win for a disappointing Saints team. SAINTS 24-17
LIONS AT TEXANS- The Texans don't scare anyone and the Lions are finally finding a way to win games. LIONS 24-20
JETS AT BROWNS- I would make disparaging remarks about these teams had the Ravens not just lost to one of them. The Jets' rushing attack impressed me last week. At the very least they've won two games? JETS 21-16
PATRIOTS AT BILLS- With Brady back and LeSean McCoy out, this won't be anything like the last matchup between these two teams. The Patriots aren't flawless, but their balanced offense and strong defense will be more than able to handle the Bills without Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy. PATRIOTS 34-20
CARDINALS AT PANTHERS- The Panthers should get a rare home win against a Cardinal team that is missing too many wide receivers aside of Larry Fitzgerald. Don't get too excited though, Panthers fans. Your team is still awful. PANTHERS 21-13
CHARGERS AT BRONCOS- The Chargers already beat the Broncos, but now the Broncos will be playing without their starting running back, C.J. Anderson. Don't look now, but the Chargers are actually starting to look good after a rough stretch. CHARGERS 23-17
PACKERS AT FALCONS- Aaron Rodgers simply doesn't have the mojo this year required to go into Atlanta and beat Falcons. The Packers are often expected to be great, but this simply isn't their year. Matt Ryan, on the other hand, has been tearing it up even if his team has lost the last two incredible close games. FALCONS 33-21
EAGLES AT COWBOYS- This is absolutely the game of the week, and thankfully it's in primetime on Sunday night. The Cowboys have lost a single game this season...by a single point. The Eagles have had a strong 4-2 start, but they've struggled against decent teams when on the road. The Cowboys aren't simply a decent team--they're a dominant team that is just getting Dez Bryant back. This one should, nevertheless, be interesting. COWBOYS 31-27
VIKINGS AT BEARS- The Bears will struggle to move the football against this Vikings defense. VIKINGS 28-14
I know plenty of Ravens fans who are actually dreading the next Ravens game as they simply can't bear to watch their beloved team lose another game in a row. I have, at this point, no such fear. This is a team that, if healthy, can go toe to toe with solid teams, but like any other team, can't withstand a host of injuries. They have a chance to win a home game against another badly injured team after the bye week, and a win would mean they'd be tied for first place in the division before facing the winless browns at home on the following Thursday night. The Ravens have a real chance to emerge 5-4 after their next two games, and maybe by that time Mornhinweg will have figured out how to utilize all of the Ravens weapons and get the offense rolling. It's easy to abandon hope after 4 disappointing losses, but with the AFC North in total disarray, it's simply too early not to entertain the possibility that this organization can figure out how to get back on track. It's football season, ladies and gentlemen. Let's try to enjoy it.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Close losses to the Raiders, Redskins, and Giants could all have been narrow wins were it not for over-aggressive decision-making errors on the part of John Harbaugh, but that certainly didn't mean he was the sole reason they lost. Harbaugh, in fact, made zero such game-changing over-aggressive errors against the Jets, and the Ravens suffered their worst loss of the season.
If you had told me before the Jets game that Harbaugh would be restrained in his decisions, Mike Wallace would catch for 120 yards, and Joe Flacco would have over 200 passing yards in the first half of the game, I probably would have said that the Ravens would have blown out a 1-5 Jets team. Those statistics, however, fail to take into account a major fundamental issue with this Ravens team.
I spent much of this last week listening to sports radio callers talk about Joe Flacco simply not being that good. They insisted that he's always just been mediocre and that now it's simply showing up more because the team lacks tough, "alpha" playmakers such as Anquan Boldin to whom Joe could simply throw the ball up and trust Q would come down with it. I wrestled with this idea because it didn't quite make sense. Joe Flacco clearly isn't Drew Brees or Tom Brady. He doesn't have superb mobility or pinpoint accuracy on passes released 1.5 seconds after the snap of the ball. He has, however, shined brilliantly in many games for years. He has outplayed Brady on multiple occasions in the playoffs, and he's outplayed Ben Roethlisberger and won 7 of his last ten games against the Steelers. So what is it that's making him look so much worse now?
Joe had little offensive success with Marc Trestman as offensive coordinator, and, thus, the Ravens got rid of Trestman. Marty Mornhinweg stepped in and successfully reintroduced the element of the deep passing game, but the Ravens immediately dropped two straight games to teams without winning records. What then is the problem? It was easy to criticize Marc Trestman and John Harbaugh as they certainly deserved much of the blame for the first three losses, but last week's loss to the Jets has made it clear that, more than anything, a lack of quality personnel at key positions was mostly to blame for the Ravens' month-long skid. Injuries certainly had something to do with it, but it's the lack of depth behind injured starters that makes this team so incredibly disappointing.
Baltimore had an opportunity to sign a quality backup offensive tackle when they brought in Jake Long and appeared to have an agreement in place. Long ultimately declined the offer as the proposed contract contained clauses that would mean he'd receive nearly nothing if he suffered any sort of serious injury. I have spent all week wishing the Ravens would have offered him a reasonable amount of guaranteed money for a backup anyway. Ideally Long wouldn't have much opportunity to become injured as he'd only play when starting left tackle, Ronnie Stanley, was hurt. It was already a risky decision to leave two rookies charged with holding down the left side of the offensive line, but having no legitimate backup to the left tackle is a new level of irresponsible management.
I watched old highlights of great plays and drives by Flacco all this week and realized that nearly every one of them had something in common: quality pass protection. Watching the 2011 game-winning drive in Week 9 in Pittsburgh, I was reminded that Joe had 4 Pro Bowl linemen and Michael Oher giving him time to make good reads, set his feet, and deliver strikes to a receiving corps no better than the one the Ravens currently possess. Bryant McKinnie, Ben Grubbs, Matt Birk, Marshal Yanda, and Oher were all durable, physical, experienced, talented offensive linemen. I then took a look at the offensive line the Ravens fielded last Sunday against the Jets and realized that not only did it lack Pro Bowl-caliber talent, but it also featured little starting experience. Jeremy Zuttah is was the only player with more than just 2 full seasons under his belt. Alex Lewis was stuck at left tackle in Ronnie Stanley's absence. Lewis was only just getting his feet wet at guard before he was stuck in a position that he's simply not ready to play at the NFL level.
Beyond Lewis playing out of position, the Ravens offensive line for the last two weeks has simply been devoid of serious talent. Jeremy Zuttah has the most experience, but he was exposed against the Jets as New York blitzed linebackers right into both A-gaps at once to prey upon his weakness in pass protection and collapse the pocket right up the middle. Few things rattle Joe Flacco more than a pocket rapidly collapsing in his face. He has such little trust in this line's ability to keep him upright and give him time to set and throw that he ends up passing off his back foot almost exclusively. Joe was already stepping gingerly with his left leg less than a year following his ACL tear, but now he has been frequently running for his life and throwing ill-advised, hurried passes that fall either way off the mark or into the hands of defenders.
One of the most idiotic comments I heard repeated by fans on the radio was that the Ravens lost because they didn't attempt to run the football more. It's true that the Ravens ran the football only a handful of times in the second half of last week's game, but much of that had to do with the fact that they lost yards or rushed for no gain on each of those rushing attempts. The Ravens offensive linemen couldn't open up any sort of running lanes, and continuing unsuccessfully to run the ball would have done absolutely nothing to change ultimate outcome of the game. What was even more frustrating was the radio commentators buying into that point. I have certainly agreed in the past that the Ravens have had to establish the run to take pressure off of Flacco in order to open up the passing game, but last week's game was simply not one of those situations where either the run or pass was functioning.
The painful loss to the New York Jets was not about play-calling, and it was not about John Harbaugh. It was, instead, about a lack of quality offensive linemen. Only two starters, Marshal Yanda and Ronnie Stanley, sat out the game, but the Ravens offensive line appeared to have backup quality linemen across the board except maybe Rick Wagner. I would implore Ozzie Newsome to make a trade for a quality offensive lineman if I were ever given an audience with the man. I even heard that it was rumored the Ravens were shopping Kamar Aiken in order to negotiate some kind of a trade, but with the trade deadline only two days away, I'm not holding out much hope that a deal gets done.
It would be a tremendous mistake to bank on the idea of the Ravens front office bolstering the offensive line through a last minute trade considering they're working with just over $2 million in cap room. What the Ravens organization and coaching staff must instead do is hope that their offensive line can become and stay reasonably healthy. Beyond the health of the offensive line, the rest of the Ravens roster must make a valiant effort to return to health at key positions. The Ravens played without 5 Pro Bowlers and their 2016 first round pick last week...and it showed. Without Steve Smith Sr. there's little attitude and fire on offense. Without Marshal Yanda, there's little push up front to create running lanes, and without Suggs the Ravens struggled horribly to contain the Jets' ground attack. It's lucky for the Ravens that the rest of the AFC North division is also in a total tailspin as of late with major injuries to playmakers on each of the other three squads.
If the Ravens can't find a way to beat a Steelers team that may start a hobbled Big Ben or no Big Ben at all, this season is basically over. Despite a triumphant 3-0 start, this team has looked far more like the one that struggled valiantly through 2015 than the upgraded unit fans all hoped they'd be in 2016. No longer impeded by Marc Trestman's inferior play-calling and hopefully no longer stifled by John Harbaugh's self-proclaimed "aggressive" decision-making, the Ravens players have only themselves to blame if they fail going forward.
Despite the doom and gloom of 4 straight losses, there were some bright spots during the Jets game. Matt Judon made the first and second sack of his career, and Brandon Williams played out of his mind. Before he had taken any big hits, Joe Flacco actually looked on point with a masterful 53 yard bomb pass to Mike Wallace who had beaten two defenders deep. Joe put the ball right over top of Wallace and hit him in stride for the huge gain. Increasing the number of big plays such as that one will go a long way to turning this offense around, and getting healthy offensive linemen as well as Steve Smith Sr. back will help open things up even further for Wallace. The former Viking/ Dolphin/Steeler is actually on pace to have 1000+ receiving yards and 6-7 touchdowns this season, and he has proven an excellent stop-gap replacement for Torrey Smith while Breshad Perriman develops.
Ok, Baltimore, take a deep breath. The bye week offers Ravens fans a rare, stress-free opportunity to kick back and simply watch football, so with that, let's take a look at this week's picks!
WEEK 8 NFL PICKS
REDSKINS AT BENGALS- The Bengals haven't looked amazing this season, but the return of Tyler Eifert does a lot to open up their offense. Josh Norman won't be able to totally shut down arguably the most talented receiver in football, A.J. Green, but he should at least limit him to a certain degree. Ultimately the Bengals offense with a healthy Eifert is simply more than the Redskins defense will be able to handle on the road. I sure hope the Skins prove me wrong on this one though. BENGALS 31-24
CHIEFS AT COLTS- The Chiefs have been better than the Colts thus far, but the Colts will finally have their top 3 receivers back for the first time in weeks when they face the Chiefs in Indy this Sunday. The Chiefs are 1-2 on the road and the Colts are 2-1 at home. COLTS 28-17
RAIDERS AT BUCCANEERS- The Raiders have struggled at home this season...but who cares? They're going on the road where they're 4-0 thus far in 2016. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, have not won a single game in Tampa Bay this season, and they'll likely struggle to make this their first. RAIDERS 33-20
SEAHAWKS AT SAINTS- The Seahawks won't be able to stop the Saints with Kam Chancellor and Michael Bennett out. This will be a rare win for a disappointing Saints team. SAINTS 24-17
LIONS AT TEXANS- The Texans don't scare anyone and the Lions are finally finding a way to win games. LIONS 24-20
JETS AT BROWNS- I would make disparaging remarks about these teams had the Ravens not just lost to one of them. The Jets' rushing attack impressed me last week. At the very least they've won two games? JETS 21-16
PATRIOTS AT BILLS- With Brady back and LeSean McCoy out, this won't be anything like the last matchup between these two teams. The Patriots aren't flawless, but their balanced offense and strong defense will be more than able to handle the Bills without Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy. PATRIOTS 34-20
CARDINALS AT PANTHERS- The Panthers should get a rare home win against a Cardinal team that is missing too many wide receivers aside of Larry Fitzgerald. Don't get too excited though, Panthers fans. Your team is still awful. PANTHERS 21-13
CHARGERS AT BRONCOS- The Chargers already beat the Broncos, but now the Broncos will be playing without their starting running back, C.J. Anderson. Don't look now, but the Chargers are actually starting to look good after a rough stretch. CHARGERS 23-17
PACKERS AT FALCONS- Aaron Rodgers simply doesn't have the mojo this year required to go into Atlanta and beat Falcons. The Packers are often expected to be great, but this simply isn't their year. Matt Ryan, on the other hand, has been tearing it up even if his team has lost the last two incredible close games. FALCONS 33-21
EAGLES AT COWBOYS- This is absolutely the game of the week, and thankfully it's in primetime on Sunday night. The Cowboys have lost a single game this season...by a single point. The Eagles have had a strong 4-2 start, but they've struggled against decent teams when on the road. The Cowboys aren't simply a decent team--they're a dominant team that is just getting Dez Bryant back. This one should, nevertheless, be interesting. COWBOYS 31-27
VIKINGS AT BEARS- The Bears will struggle to move the football against this Vikings defense. VIKINGS 28-14
I know plenty of Ravens fans who are actually dreading the next Ravens game as they simply can't bear to watch their beloved team lose another game in a row. I have, at this point, no such fear. This is a team that, if healthy, can go toe to toe with solid teams, but like any other team, can't withstand a host of injuries. They have a chance to win a home game against another badly injured team after the bye week, and a win would mean they'd be tied for first place in the division before facing the winless browns at home on the following Thursday night. The Ravens have a real chance to emerge 5-4 after their next two games, and maybe by that time Mornhinweg will have figured out how to utilize all of the Ravens weapons and get the offense rolling. It's easy to abandon hope after 4 disappointing losses, but with the AFC North in total disarray, it's simply too early not to entertain the possibility that this organization can figure out how to get back on track. It's football season, ladies and gentlemen. Let's try to enjoy it.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, October 23, 2016
WEEK 7 NFL PICKS AND RAVENS ANALYSIS
The Ravens have one last chance to add another win against an opponent with a losing record before their by week, and then they'll face a significant increase in strength of schedule as they head into the second half of the season. It's not that the Redskins and Raiders were bad teams as both currently possess winning records, but each game was easily winnable. Last week's game against the Giants went mostly as I expected with a narrow Giants win that could have been prevented had Harbaugh once again simply taken points when he could get them instead of going for it on 4th and 1 from the goal line after being stonewalled on the first 3 attempts to muscle the ball in long before the waning minutes of the game. That decision-making sequence exemplifies perhaps the biggest issue that has plagued the Ravens for years now: John Harbaugh's inability to consistently and effectively manage games.
Many people point back to the last 3 seasons since the Ravens won their last Super Bowl as a down period following what had been an incredibly successful first 5 seasons of the Harbaugh-Flacco era. Some people blamed Ozzie Newsome for whiffing hard on a handful of notable early picks in multiple drafts including Sergio Kindle, Terrance Cody, Matt Elam, and Arthur Brown, but you'll find many high draft picks across the league don't pan out for teams. Would it have been nice if each one of those picks had been impact players? Of course, but far too many games could have been won with the talent that the Ravens had on hand were it not for several bone-headed decisions in nearly all of the Ravens losses over the last 4 seasons.
Harbaugh's most glaring error in judgment has been his aforementioned tendency to as he puts it "aggressive" in 4th and short situations. His lack of sound reasoning in that realm this season has been particularly egregious as he has failed to make note of a couple of factors. The first is that the Ravens have statistically only converted on 4th and short on less than one third of their attempts in 2016. The second is that converting on 4th and short on the goal line is not the same as converting on 4th and short in the middle of the field. Converting on 4th and short in the middle of the field allows some of your players to run deeper routes to stretch an opposing defense and get better separation if the quarterback needs to roll out of the pocket and buy some time as Flacco did in his successful 22 yard pass to Kamar Aiken on 4th down last weekend. On the goal line, however, Harbaugh has felt that being aggressive means trying to muscle the ball across using either a quarterback sneak or simply handing off the ball to a tailback with the fullback leading the way. The problem with that approach last Sunday was that the Giants actually possess a top 10 defense against the run...oh and they had just finished stuffing the Ravens 3 consecutive times leading up to that 4th down attempt.
Harbaugh also failed to take into account his personnel once the Ravens got within several yards of the goal line. I understand full that Terrence West is a terrific power back with the ability to both make defenders miss and break tackles, but few backs can do much when their offensive linemen aren't able to get any push at the point of attack. The Ravens were out 3 of their starting 5 offensive linemen, and the backups were simply physically outmatched all day long. They got called for holding because they couldn't sustain blocks legally, and they were less than useless at imposing their will in situations where the Giants knew the Ravens intended to run the football. At least one short passing attempt should have been made on second or third down to a tight end or the fullback, but the Ravens, instead, continued to unsuccessfully in their attempts to plow forward. It's true that West probably walks into the endzone if the Ravens fullback simply makes and sustains his block on that 4th down outside run, but after 3 unsuccessful attempts to run the football from inside the 3 yard line, wouldn't it have made sense to take guaranteed points instead of coming up with nothing when failing to do so has come back to haunt you in so very many games over the past 4 years? I'd hope that Harbaugh would consider how few points the Ravens have scored this season and take any chance he can get to add to that total, but he clearly has had a different thought process.
Harbaugh also has made a habit of squandering second half timeouts and, thus, hampers any ability at a comeback drive in the waning minutes of the game. Adolescents who play too much Madden have a better gauge for clock management than Harbaugh. Sure, Flacco was not exactly accurate during the Ravens final drive of last week's game, but going into that drive with one timeout instead of three meant the Ravens were far more limited in the types of plays they could run to keep the drive moving, and it meant Terrence West couldn't really be part of the process.
Harbaugh's success as a head coach has had little to do with his gamesmanship and a lot to do with the sheer level of talent he inherited when joining the organization. If the Ravens do end up once again missing the playoffs and firing Harbaugh, it would be wise to consider hiring a head coach with experience as an offensive coordinator. Harbaugh's idea of being "aggressive" is simply being reckless with a poorly considered approach. He might be a good manager of people, but in observable decisions that are undeniably his calls to make Harbaugh has demonstrated his inability to play the odds in situations that ultimately end up meaning the difference between winning and losing tightly contested games.
If the Ravens can't beat a Jets teams mired in personnel issues, there's probably little hope that Baltimore can salvage a season that features upcoming games against the Eagles, Steelers, Cowboys, and Patriots. The return of both of the Ravens starting offensive tackles gives hope that they'll be able to protect Flacco and open up running lanes for Terrance West. The Jets have a strong defensive line, but their secondary has proven suspect at times this season. The key against the Jets will be buying time to allow Mike Wallace, Kamar Aiken, and Breshad Perriman to get open, especially deep down field. We've seen the previously elite Darrelle Revis get absolutely torched in one on one coverage this season, and the Ravens would be wise to attack him with Wallace and Perriman on vertical routes. If the game is ultimately lost because of more miscalculations in clock management and errors in judgment regarding settling for field goals, expect Harbaugh to be called into an angry meeting with Steve Bisciotti on Monday. There is no more room for error. He needs to lead his team to a decisive, lopsided victory over a struggling team, or else face the fact that his team may not get to 8 wins again in what could be his last season as head coach of the Ravens. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.
THE PICKS
GIANTS AT RAMS- The Rams have probably been a better team than the Giants thus far this season, but it appeared as though the Giants finally found their rhythm when they went to a no-huddle, hurry-up offense last week against the Ravens. The injury to Odell Beckham's hip will likely be the big factor holding them back, but they still have other talented receivers. GIANTS 20-17
SAINTS AT CHIEFS- The Saints have looked frighteningly explosive at times on offense this season, but their defense hasn't been nearly strong enough to win a significant number of games. The Chiefs impressed me with their huge road win in Oakland last week, and they should find similar success against the Saints at home. CHIEFS 28-21
COLTS AT TITANS- The Titans have finally found themselves on a roll and will beat a struggling Colts team. TITANS 30-17
VIKINGS AT EAGLES- It's difficult to imagine even a highly talented rookie QB moving the ball consistently on this Vikings defense that may go down as one of the very best defenses of the past 20 years. VIKINGS 24-20
BROWNS AT BENGALS- With Tyler Eifert back, the Bengals should win a hard-fought divisional matchup. As bad as the Browns' record is, this actually will be quite a fight. BENGALS 27-23
REDSKINS AT LIONS- The Redskins will likely come back down to earth when they go on the road against a Lions team that has truly found its rhythm offensively as of late. LIONS 31-28
RAIDERS AT JAGUARS- The Raiders are simply the better team. RAIDERS 33-21
BILLS AT DOLPHINS- This is probably the most difficult game to predict. Divisional matchups are already tough to read, but the Dolphins are coming off of a huge win over the Steelers at home. The Bills have been on fire recently and haven't lost since replacing their offensive coordinator. They're the more complete team, but I'd like to see a Dolphins win. BILLS 27-20
RAVENS AT JETS- It's easy to doubt the Ravens considering their recent string of losses, but each one of those losses has one thing in common: no Ronnie Stanley. One more week with Marty Mornhinweg calling the offense and the return of starters to the offensive line should be enough to tilt this in favor of Baltimore, but this will, once again, be uncomfortably close. Eric Decker's season-ending injury is likely the factor that will allow the Ravens to have a good defensive game. RAVENS 23-17
BUCCANEERS AT 49ERS- Chip Kelly needs to go back to college for good. BUCCANEERS 35-21
CHARGERS AT FALCONS- This is not a game the Chargers can win in Atlanta. FALCONS 38-24
PATRIOTS AT STEELERS- No Ben and too many defensive injuries will mean another bad day for the Steelers. PATRIOTS 34-14
SEAHAWKS AT CARDINALS- The Seahawks always struggle early in the season but it appears as though they've once again righted the ship. The Cardinals are too shaky for my vote of confidence. If the Seahawks can edge the Falcons, they can stifle the Cardinals. SEAHAWKS 27-19
TEXANS AT BRONCOS- The Texans aren't nearly offensively effective enough to go into Denver and win this game. BRONCOS 28-14
THIS RAVENS SEASON IS STARTING TO FEEL PAINFULLY SIMILAR TO THE LAST ONE. INJURIES, POOR DECISIONS FROM THE HEAD COACH AND SUSPECT COORDINATION HAVE ONCE AGAIN MADE THE DIFFERENCE IN INCREDIBLY CLOSE, HARD FOUGHT GAMES. IF HARBAUGH CAN'T RIGHT THE SHIP AGAINST ARGUABLY THE WORST TEAM LEFT ON THE RAVENS SCHEDULE, THEN HEADS NEED TO ROLL. MORNHINWEG DID SHOW A MARKED UPGRADE OVER TRESTMAN, HOWEVER, AND HE'S GOT BETTER PERSONNEL TO PLAY WITH THIS WEEKEND.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Many people point back to the last 3 seasons since the Ravens won their last Super Bowl as a down period following what had been an incredibly successful first 5 seasons of the Harbaugh-Flacco era. Some people blamed Ozzie Newsome for whiffing hard on a handful of notable early picks in multiple drafts including Sergio Kindle, Terrance Cody, Matt Elam, and Arthur Brown, but you'll find many high draft picks across the league don't pan out for teams. Would it have been nice if each one of those picks had been impact players? Of course, but far too many games could have been won with the talent that the Ravens had on hand were it not for several bone-headed decisions in nearly all of the Ravens losses over the last 4 seasons.
Harbaugh's most glaring error in judgment has been his aforementioned tendency to as he puts it "aggressive" in 4th and short situations. His lack of sound reasoning in that realm this season has been particularly egregious as he has failed to make note of a couple of factors. The first is that the Ravens have statistically only converted on 4th and short on less than one third of their attempts in 2016. The second is that converting on 4th and short on the goal line is not the same as converting on 4th and short in the middle of the field. Converting on 4th and short in the middle of the field allows some of your players to run deeper routes to stretch an opposing defense and get better separation if the quarterback needs to roll out of the pocket and buy some time as Flacco did in his successful 22 yard pass to Kamar Aiken on 4th down last weekend. On the goal line, however, Harbaugh has felt that being aggressive means trying to muscle the ball across using either a quarterback sneak or simply handing off the ball to a tailback with the fullback leading the way. The problem with that approach last Sunday was that the Giants actually possess a top 10 defense against the run...oh and they had just finished stuffing the Ravens 3 consecutive times leading up to that 4th down attempt.
Harbaugh also failed to take into account his personnel once the Ravens got within several yards of the goal line. I understand full that Terrence West is a terrific power back with the ability to both make defenders miss and break tackles, but few backs can do much when their offensive linemen aren't able to get any push at the point of attack. The Ravens were out 3 of their starting 5 offensive linemen, and the backups were simply physically outmatched all day long. They got called for holding because they couldn't sustain blocks legally, and they were less than useless at imposing their will in situations where the Giants knew the Ravens intended to run the football. At least one short passing attempt should have been made on second or third down to a tight end or the fullback, but the Ravens, instead, continued to unsuccessfully in their attempts to plow forward. It's true that West probably walks into the endzone if the Ravens fullback simply makes and sustains his block on that 4th down outside run, but after 3 unsuccessful attempts to run the football from inside the 3 yard line, wouldn't it have made sense to take guaranteed points instead of coming up with nothing when failing to do so has come back to haunt you in so very many games over the past 4 years? I'd hope that Harbaugh would consider how few points the Ravens have scored this season and take any chance he can get to add to that total, but he clearly has had a different thought process.
Harbaugh also has made a habit of squandering second half timeouts and, thus, hampers any ability at a comeback drive in the waning minutes of the game. Adolescents who play too much Madden have a better gauge for clock management than Harbaugh. Sure, Flacco was not exactly accurate during the Ravens final drive of last week's game, but going into that drive with one timeout instead of three meant the Ravens were far more limited in the types of plays they could run to keep the drive moving, and it meant Terrence West couldn't really be part of the process.
Harbaugh's success as a head coach has had little to do with his gamesmanship and a lot to do with the sheer level of talent he inherited when joining the organization. If the Ravens do end up once again missing the playoffs and firing Harbaugh, it would be wise to consider hiring a head coach with experience as an offensive coordinator. Harbaugh's idea of being "aggressive" is simply being reckless with a poorly considered approach. He might be a good manager of people, but in observable decisions that are undeniably his calls to make Harbaugh has demonstrated his inability to play the odds in situations that ultimately end up meaning the difference between winning and losing tightly contested games.
If the Ravens can't beat a Jets teams mired in personnel issues, there's probably little hope that Baltimore can salvage a season that features upcoming games against the Eagles, Steelers, Cowboys, and Patriots. The return of both of the Ravens starting offensive tackles gives hope that they'll be able to protect Flacco and open up running lanes for Terrance West. The Jets have a strong defensive line, but their secondary has proven suspect at times this season. The key against the Jets will be buying time to allow Mike Wallace, Kamar Aiken, and Breshad Perriman to get open, especially deep down field. We've seen the previously elite Darrelle Revis get absolutely torched in one on one coverage this season, and the Ravens would be wise to attack him with Wallace and Perriman on vertical routes. If the game is ultimately lost because of more miscalculations in clock management and errors in judgment regarding settling for field goals, expect Harbaugh to be called into an angry meeting with Steve Bisciotti on Monday. There is no more room for error. He needs to lead his team to a decisive, lopsided victory over a struggling team, or else face the fact that his team may not get to 8 wins again in what could be his last season as head coach of the Ravens. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.
THE PICKS
GIANTS AT RAMS- The Rams have probably been a better team than the Giants thus far this season, but it appeared as though the Giants finally found their rhythm when they went to a no-huddle, hurry-up offense last week against the Ravens. The injury to Odell Beckham's hip will likely be the big factor holding them back, but they still have other talented receivers. GIANTS 20-17
SAINTS AT CHIEFS- The Saints have looked frighteningly explosive at times on offense this season, but their defense hasn't been nearly strong enough to win a significant number of games. The Chiefs impressed me with their huge road win in Oakland last week, and they should find similar success against the Saints at home. CHIEFS 28-21
COLTS AT TITANS- The Titans have finally found themselves on a roll and will beat a struggling Colts team. TITANS 30-17
VIKINGS AT EAGLES- It's difficult to imagine even a highly talented rookie QB moving the ball consistently on this Vikings defense that may go down as one of the very best defenses of the past 20 years. VIKINGS 24-20
BROWNS AT BENGALS- With Tyler Eifert back, the Bengals should win a hard-fought divisional matchup. As bad as the Browns' record is, this actually will be quite a fight. BENGALS 27-23
REDSKINS AT LIONS- The Redskins will likely come back down to earth when they go on the road against a Lions team that has truly found its rhythm offensively as of late. LIONS 31-28
RAIDERS AT JAGUARS- The Raiders are simply the better team. RAIDERS 33-21
BILLS AT DOLPHINS- This is probably the most difficult game to predict. Divisional matchups are already tough to read, but the Dolphins are coming off of a huge win over the Steelers at home. The Bills have been on fire recently and haven't lost since replacing their offensive coordinator. They're the more complete team, but I'd like to see a Dolphins win. BILLS 27-20
RAVENS AT JETS- It's easy to doubt the Ravens considering their recent string of losses, but each one of those losses has one thing in common: no Ronnie Stanley. One more week with Marty Mornhinweg calling the offense and the return of starters to the offensive line should be enough to tilt this in favor of Baltimore, but this will, once again, be uncomfortably close. Eric Decker's season-ending injury is likely the factor that will allow the Ravens to have a good defensive game. RAVENS 23-17
BUCCANEERS AT 49ERS- Chip Kelly needs to go back to college for good. BUCCANEERS 35-21
CHARGERS AT FALCONS- This is not a game the Chargers can win in Atlanta. FALCONS 38-24
PATRIOTS AT STEELERS- No Ben and too many defensive injuries will mean another bad day for the Steelers. PATRIOTS 34-14
SEAHAWKS AT CARDINALS- The Seahawks always struggle early in the season but it appears as though they've once again righted the ship. The Cardinals are too shaky for my vote of confidence. If the Seahawks can edge the Falcons, they can stifle the Cardinals. SEAHAWKS 27-19
TEXANS AT BRONCOS- The Texans aren't nearly offensively effective enough to go into Denver and win this game. BRONCOS 28-14
THIS RAVENS SEASON IS STARTING TO FEEL PAINFULLY SIMILAR TO THE LAST ONE. INJURIES, POOR DECISIONS FROM THE HEAD COACH AND SUSPECT COORDINATION HAVE ONCE AGAIN MADE THE DIFFERENCE IN INCREDIBLY CLOSE, HARD FOUGHT GAMES. IF HARBAUGH CAN'T RIGHT THE SHIP AGAINST ARGUABLY THE WORST TEAM LEFT ON THE RAVENS SCHEDULE, THEN HEADS NEED TO ROLL. MORNHINWEG DID SHOW A MARKED UPGRADE OVER TRESTMAN, HOWEVER, AND HE'S GOT BETTER PERSONNEL TO PLAY WITH THIS WEEKEND.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Saturday, October 15, 2016
WEEK 6 NFL PICKS AND RAVENS ANALYSIS
The last two weeks have felt painfully similar to most of last season for Ravens fans. Many teams would be happy about starting the season 3-2, but the first 3 wins of the Ravens' season were won by such slim margins and with such uneven offensive production that being undefeated through three weeks meant little going forward. The defense has held some highly ranked pass offenses in check, but no currently in the league is good enough to win games with the level of offensive production that Marc Trestman was able to create.
I have faith that Marty Mornhinweg will utilize the Ravens' weapons to a far greater degree than Marc Trestman ever did, but this week scares me for issues beyond the scope of Mornhinweg's control. There was no question that a significant number of starting offensive linemen were likely going to sit this out this week when the Ravens quickly signed two backup guards. The Ravens have spent the last two weeks without Ronnie Stanley, and those have been the two weeks they've lost impossibly narrow games rather than WINNING impossibly narrow games. There's no question that his health is a major key to the Ravens offensive success this season. What is more troubling, however, is that Marshal Yanda, the top guard in football for years now, is doubtful to suit up on Sunday. To make matters worse, starting right tackle, Rick Wagner, didn't practice most of the week, and even if he's able to suit up, he may very well be injured and less effective than usual.
It's difficult to imagine an offensive coordinator finding tremendous success in his first week running the unit with three starting offensive linemen questionable or doubtful. Fortunately for the Ravens, a Giants team awaits them that is on an even bigger skid than what Baltimore has just experienced. The Giants began the season with wins over the now red-hot Cowboys and the Saints, and I wasn't the only one who assumed Eli Manning and company were going to once again contend for a playoff spot. Over the last 3 weeks, however, the Giants offense has struggled just as hard as the Ravens offense against decent defensive opponents. New York has, for example, averaged just 13 points per game in the last two weeks against the Vikings and Packers. Also like the Ravens, the Giants, even in victory, struggled to find an offensive rhythm and only barely squeaked by 20-19 in Week 1 and 16-13 in Week 2.
If there weren't already enough similarities between these two teams, the Giants have some major injury concerns of their own. The Giants will not have their starting right tackle on Sunday or their free starting free safety. Both starting corners, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Eli Apple are questionable as is Jason Pierre-Paul. These injuries could prove pivotal, but they don't appear nearly as extensive as those to the Ravens' starting offense.
The Ravens offensive line isn't the only unit with significant injuries. Elvis Dumervil does not appear to be fully recovered from his offseason surgery, and Matt Judon will likely have to play a significant number of snaps in his place. This isn't the worst thing in the world, however, as Judon has impressive speed and will likely be more effective than an injured Dumervil. Steve Smith Sr. is doubtful to play after injuring his ankle during last week's game, but Kamar Aiken has already proven he's fully capable of stepping up in Sr.'s absence.
The keys to this game will be pressure on both Eli Manning and Joe Flacco. Both men are former Super Bowl MVP's and have displayed downright heroic levels of post-season execution, but both have also since struggled to find consistent production in the regular season over the past several years. Both men have impressive receiving weapons at their disposal, but for one reason or another, neither has been able to connect with their weapons consistently enough to find the endzone consistently. The Ravens should have a defensive upper hand as they boast the third ranked defense in the league, but they'll be without C.J. Mosley, and that could be a major issue. Mosley isn't spectacular in pass coverage, but he's great against the run and an excellent pass rusher when sent on a blitz. Mosley has also displayed a knack for the ball with two key interceptions on the season, one that put the Browns' chances of a comeback away. The Ravens will have to shift things around between Albert McClellan and Kamalei Correa to make up for Mosley's absence.
The Ravens offense with backups at key positions on the offensive line and the direction of Marty Mornhinweg is truly an unknown commodity. I'd like to think that the new energy Marty had reportedly brought to the offense and its personnel would be enough to spark a big day against a lackluster team, but the truth is that Marty is starting the game with a questionable hand. The Ravens defense will likely keep the team in this game, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Ravens offense find at least some degree of success against the 22nd ranked pass defense. That success, however, will only come if Mornhinweg is able to first establish an effective rushing attack to take pressure off of Flacco and compensate for the absence of Ronnie Stanley and Marshal Yanda. I would not be surprised to see New York pick on backup offensive linemen and ruin Marty's debut, but hopefully it won't come to that. This is an extremely winnable game, and the Giants have only beaten the Ravens once in team history during the 2008 season. This may not be the week the Ravens fully turn the corner, but they have a decent shot to at least get back on track against another struggling team with many similar issues.
THE PICKS
49ERS AT BILLS- It's possible starting Colin Kaepernick could jumpstart the 49ers, but it's probably not going to happen on the road against a team as hot as the Bills. Buffalo has been on a tear since firing its offensive coordinator after the Week 2 loss to the Jets. BILLS 33-21
EAGLES AT REDSKINS- The Eagles are a far better team than the Redskins. The Skins may have beaten a team determined to give them the game last week, but that won't mean much when facing one of the best, most complete teams in the NFC and the NFL. EAGLES 28-19
BROWNS AT TITANS- The Browns have lost some tough games against some good teams, but they simply get make plays when the game is on the line. TITANS 24-17
RAVENS AT GIANTS- I prey the Ravens make me look stupid with this prediction, but I don't like Baltimore's chances with such a banged up offensive line. The Ravens haven't won a game without Ronnie Stanley on the field, but no Ronnie Stanley and no Marshal Yanda means a bad day for Flacco. The Ravens defense will look good for most of this game, but there are too many dangerous Giants receiving threats that eventually someone will start making plays. Again...Mornhinweg makes me look like a fool, but I can't trust they'll suddenly find an offensive rhythm without their two best offensive linemen and a brand new OC. GIANTS 23-17
PANTHERS AT SAINTS- The Panthers are one of the worst teams in the league this season, and I can't see things improving against a Saints team that has scored a sensational number of points thus far. Josh Norman may not have been the answer to all of D.C.'s woes, but he was a big reason the Panthers won football games last season. SAINTS 38-31
JAGURARS AT BEARS- These are two depressingly bad teams, but at least the Bears have won a home game. The Jaguars haven't won on the road. There's a ton of young talent on the Jags, but they simply haven't played well enough as a unit. BEARS 20-17
RAMS AT LIONS- The Rams have been a solid road team thus far. The Lions hope they can make Justin Forsett work, but we all watched him fail to display the burst and lateral quickness that got him to a Pro Bowl 2 seasons ago. I like Justin though, and so I'm predicting his team will lose...mostly because the one time I picked the Rams to win, they lost. RAMS 27-21
STEELERS AT DOLPHINS- This isn't a game the Steelers should lose, but they won't most the ball that easily, at least not at first, against the Dolphins D. STEELERS 28-17
BENGALS AT PATRIOTS- I loathe the Patriots, but they're the best team in the AFC right now if not the league. It's fun to watch the Bengals collapse after the departure of the one offensive coordinator whose system and play-calling made Red Rocket actually look like a legit QB. Get ready to be 2-4, Cincy. PATRIOTS 35-16
CHIEFS AT RAIDERS- The Chiefs have not won a game on the road. They look horrible on the road and they're about to face a serious Raiders team. RAIDERS 31-20
FALCONS AT SEAHAWKS- The Falcons are rolling, and if the Broncos defense can't stop them, I can't imagine the Seahawks will have too much success, but the Seahawks will still make this interesting. FALCONS 30-27
COWBOYS AT PACKERS- Aaron Rodgers is about one solid receiving target short of having a consistently effective offense. The Pack has lost to the one team with a winning record that they've played thus far. I know very well that Lambeau is a tough environment to visit, but it's too early in the year for the weather to make that much of a difference. The Cowboys offensive line is too good to lose to a team that can't stop them or match them score for score. COWBOYS 28-21
COLTS AT TEXANS- The Texans haven't won on the road, but they also haven't yet lost at home. This is another down year for the Colts, and they've lost both of their road games thus far. TEXANS 23-17
JETS AT CARDINALS- The Jets are screwed without Eric Decker. The Cardinals aren't great, but they should win this one at home against a team with a single win on the year. CARDINALS 19-14
LOSING THIS GAME WOULDN'T MEAN THE RAVENS ARE OUT OF THE PLAYOFF RACE. THEY SIMPLY MUST GET SOME OFFENSIVE LINEMEN BACK HEALTHY AND BEAT THE JETS THE FOLLOWING WEEK BEFORE THEIR BYE WEEK. I ACTUALLY THINK THERE'S A DECENT SHOT THEY BEAT A STRUGGLING GIANTS TEAM, BUT THERE ARE TWO MANY UNKNOWNS FOR ME TO THROW THEM A VOTE OF CONFIDENCE IN THEIR FIRST WEEK WITH A NEW OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR. LET'S HOPE I'M PROVEN HORRIBLY WRONG.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
I have faith that Marty Mornhinweg will utilize the Ravens' weapons to a far greater degree than Marc Trestman ever did, but this week scares me for issues beyond the scope of Mornhinweg's control. There was no question that a significant number of starting offensive linemen were likely going to sit this out this week when the Ravens quickly signed two backup guards. The Ravens have spent the last two weeks without Ronnie Stanley, and those have been the two weeks they've lost impossibly narrow games rather than WINNING impossibly narrow games. There's no question that his health is a major key to the Ravens offensive success this season. What is more troubling, however, is that Marshal Yanda, the top guard in football for years now, is doubtful to suit up on Sunday. To make matters worse, starting right tackle, Rick Wagner, didn't practice most of the week, and even if he's able to suit up, he may very well be injured and less effective than usual.
It's difficult to imagine an offensive coordinator finding tremendous success in his first week running the unit with three starting offensive linemen questionable or doubtful. Fortunately for the Ravens, a Giants team awaits them that is on an even bigger skid than what Baltimore has just experienced. The Giants began the season with wins over the now red-hot Cowboys and the Saints, and I wasn't the only one who assumed Eli Manning and company were going to once again contend for a playoff spot. Over the last 3 weeks, however, the Giants offense has struggled just as hard as the Ravens offense against decent defensive opponents. New York has, for example, averaged just 13 points per game in the last two weeks against the Vikings and Packers. Also like the Ravens, the Giants, even in victory, struggled to find an offensive rhythm and only barely squeaked by 20-19 in Week 1 and 16-13 in Week 2.
If there weren't already enough similarities between these two teams, the Giants have some major injury concerns of their own. The Giants will not have their starting right tackle on Sunday or their free starting free safety. Both starting corners, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Eli Apple are questionable as is Jason Pierre-Paul. These injuries could prove pivotal, but they don't appear nearly as extensive as those to the Ravens' starting offense.
The Ravens offensive line isn't the only unit with significant injuries. Elvis Dumervil does not appear to be fully recovered from his offseason surgery, and Matt Judon will likely have to play a significant number of snaps in his place. This isn't the worst thing in the world, however, as Judon has impressive speed and will likely be more effective than an injured Dumervil. Steve Smith Sr. is doubtful to play after injuring his ankle during last week's game, but Kamar Aiken has already proven he's fully capable of stepping up in Sr.'s absence.
The keys to this game will be pressure on both Eli Manning and Joe Flacco. Both men are former Super Bowl MVP's and have displayed downright heroic levels of post-season execution, but both have also since struggled to find consistent production in the regular season over the past several years. Both men have impressive receiving weapons at their disposal, but for one reason or another, neither has been able to connect with their weapons consistently enough to find the endzone consistently. The Ravens should have a defensive upper hand as they boast the third ranked defense in the league, but they'll be without C.J. Mosley, and that could be a major issue. Mosley isn't spectacular in pass coverage, but he's great against the run and an excellent pass rusher when sent on a blitz. Mosley has also displayed a knack for the ball with two key interceptions on the season, one that put the Browns' chances of a comeback away. The Ravens will have to shift things around between Albert McClellan and Kamalei Correa to make up for Mosley's absence.
The Ravens offense with backups at key positions on the offensive line and the direction of Marty Mornhinweg is truly an unknown commodity. I'd like to think that the new energy Marty had reportedly brought to the offense and its personnel would be enough to spark a big day against a lackluster team, but the truth is that Marty is starting the game with a questionable hand. The Ravens defense will likely keep the team in this game, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Ravens offense find at least some degree of success against the 22nd ranked pass defense. That success, however, will only come if Mornhinweg is able to first establish an effective rushing attack to take pressure off of Flacco and compensate for the absence of Ronnie Stanley and Marshal Yanda. I would not be surprised to see New York pick on backup offensive linemen and ruin Marty's debut, but hopefully it won't come to that. This is an extremely winnable game, and the Giants have only beaten the Ravens once in team history during the 2008 season. This may not be the week the Ravens fully turn the corner, but they have a decent shot to at least get back on track against another struggling team with many similar issues.
THE PICKS
49ERS AT BILLS- It's possible starting Colin Kaepernick could jumpstart the 49ers, but it's probably not going to happen on the road against a team as hot as the Bills. Buffalo has been on a tear since firing its offensive coordinator after the Week 2 loss to the Jets. BILLS 33-21
EAGLES AT REDSKINS- The Eagles are a far better team than the Redskins. The Skins may have beaten a team determined to give them the game last week, but that won't mean much when facing one of the best, most complete teams in the NFC and the NFL. EAGLES 28-19
BROWNS AT TITANS- The Browns have lost some tough games against some good teams, but they simply get make plays when the game is on the line. TITANS 24-17
RAVENS AT GIANTS- I prey the Ravens make me look stupid with this prediction, but I don't like Baltimore's chances with such a banged up offensive line. The Ravens haven't won a game without Ronnie Stanley on the field, but no Ronnie Stanley and no Marshal Yanda means a bad day for Flacco. The Ravens defense will look good for most of this game, but there are too many dangerous Giants receiving threats that eventually someone will start making plays. Again...Mornhinweg makes me look like a fool, but I can't trust they'll suddenly find an offensive rhythm without their two best offensive linemen and a brand new OC. GIANTS 23-17
PANTHERS AT SAINTS- The Panthers are one of the worst teams in the league this season, and I can't see things improving against a Saints team that has scored a sensational number of points thus far. Josh Norman may not have been the answer to all of D.C.'s woes, but he was a big reason the Panthers won football games last season. SAINTS 38-31
JAGURARS AT BEARS- These are two depressingly bad teams, but at least the Bears have won a home game. The Jaguars haven't won on the road. There's a ton of young talent on the Jags, but they simply haven't played well enough as a unit. BEARS 20-17
RAMS AT LIONS- The Rams have been a solid road team thus far. The Lions hope they can make Justin Forsett work, but we all watched him fail to display the burst and lateral quickness that got him to a Pro Bowl 2 seasons ago. I like Justin though, and so I'm predicting his team will lose...mostly because the one time I picked the Rams to win, they lost. RAMS 27-21
STEELERS AT DOLPHINS- This isn't a game the Steelers should lose, but they won't most the ball that easily, at least not at first, against the Dolphins D. STEELERS 28-17
BENGALS AT PATRIOTS- I loathe the Patriots, but they're the best team in the AFC right now if not the league. It's fun to watch the Bengals collapse after the departure of the one offensive coordinator whose system and play-calling made Red Rocket actually look like a legit QB. Get ready to be 2-4, Cincy. PATRIOTS 35-16
CHIEFS AT RAIDERS- The Chiefs have not won a game on the road. They look horrible on the road and they're about to face a serious Raiders team. RAIDERS 31-20
FALCONS AT SEAHAWKS- The Falcons are rolling, and if the Broncos defense can't stop them, I can't imagine the Seahawks will have too much success, but the Seahawks will still make this interesting. FALCONS 30-27
COWBOYS AT PACKERS- Aaron Rodgers is about one solid receiving target short of having a consistently effective offense. The Pack has lost to the one team with a winning record that they've played thus far. I know very well that Lambeau is a tough environment to visit, but it's too early in the year for the weather to make that much of a difference. The Cowboys offensive line is too good to lose to a team that can't stop them or match them score for score. COWBOYS 28-21
COLTS AT TEXANS- The Texans haven't won on the road, but they also haven't yet lost at home. This is another down year for the Colts, and they've lost both of their road games thus far. TEXANS 23-17
JETS AT CARDINALS- The Jets are screwed without Eric Decker. The Cardinals aren't great, but they should win this one at home against a team with a single win on the year. CARDINALS 19-14
LOSING THIS GAME WOULDN'T MEAN THE RAVENS ARE OUT OF THE PLAYOFF RACE. THEY SIMPLY MUST GET SOME OFFENSIVE LINEMEN BACK HEALTHY AND BEAT THE JETS THE FOLLOWING WEEK BEFORE THEIR BYE WEEK. I ACTUALLY THINK THERE'S A DECENT SHOT THEY BEAT A STRUGGLING GIANTS TEAM, BUT THERE ARE TWO MANY UNKNOWNS FOR ME TO THROW THEM A VOTE OF CONFIDENCE IN THEIR FIRST WEEK WITH A NEW OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR. LET'S HOPE I'M PROVEN HORRIBLY WRONG.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
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