SUMMERTIME STATE OF THE RAVENS

     It has been nearly two months since the end of an NFL Draft in which the Baltimore Ravens managed to surprise and confuse a sizable number of their fans.  Ozzie Newsome and Eric DeCosta did not pull the trigger on a big offensive tackle, tight end, or wide receiver in the first two rounds as many thought they would.  They didn't pick up a safety with their first pick either, and they neglected to pick up a cornerback at any point in the draft.  No, the Ravens didn't select picks the way a lot of fans wanted...they picked FAR more intelligently.  
     The natural reaction after an offensively abysmal 2013 season is to demand that the Ravens use their high draft picks on offensive pieces.  The offensive line was absolutely atrocious, the running game was the worst in team history, and Joe Flacco threw for more interceptions than touchdowns with a patchwork receiving corps.  Many fans forget, however, the major factors that combined to deliver such poor production, and virtually every single one of those factors has since been corrected during this off-season.
     The most glaring offensive weakness of 2013 was the offensive line. The O line's poor performance stemmed from both issues of scheme and available personnel.  Kelechi Osemele missed over half of the season with back pain stemming from a bulging disk. Marshall Yanda had never fully recovered from shoulder surgery he underwent during the 2013 the off-season, but he still opted to play. Michael Oher suffered a leg injury in Week 1, and Gino Gradkowski simply wasn't up to the task of replacing Matt Birk.  Juan Castillo, meanwhile, attempted to install an overly complicated set of blocking schemes that even he admitted would take up to 9 weeks of the regular season to truly be mastered by the offensive linemen.
     The Ravens wasted no time finding solutions to problems with the offensive line. The Ravens acquired center Jeremy Zuttah formerly of the Tampa Bay Bucaneers. Zuttah is not a top ranked center, but he's a big, versatile, experienced lineman who did not allow a single sack last season.  The Ravens also celebrated the return to health of Kelechi Osemele who is reportedly in fantastic shape after rehabbing from back surgery.  Marshal Yanda is also fully recovered from his shoulder surgery in 2013, and the Ravens managed to lock Eugene Monroe into a five year contract to protect Joe Flacco's blindside through the prime of his career.  Many fans may have been wary of replacing Michael Oher with Ricky Wagner as this is only the Wisconsin product's second year in the league, and he didn't blow anyone away with his performance in 2013.  Wagner, nevertheless, has reportedly looked great in camp, and he has the full confidence of his coaching staff as the Ravens head into the summer months.  As with any position, experience is paramount, and now Wagner has accrued some of it.
     As for the schematic issues of the offensive line, many fans hoped to hear that Juan Castillo would lose his job immediately following the 2013 regular season. John Harbaugh insisted that Castillo's job was safe, but then proceeded to hire Gary Kubiak as offensive coordinator. Kubiak brought with him his own blocking schemes which players have already praised.  Players reported that they're never left guessing who they're supposed to block in Kubiak's schemes, and Castillo's job is simply to help facilitate and teach this system--not force his own.
     Not only was Joe Flacco's protection poor in 2013, but his stable of receivers became frighteningly thin.  The trade of Anquan Boldin and injury of Dennis Pitta meant that Flacco, for the first time in his career, had no sure-handed tight end or wiley, physical possession receiver. Whether it was Todd Heap and Derrick Mason or Dennis Pitta and Anquan Boldin, Joe always had at least a pair or dependable targets until last season. Flacco did not even have one of his explosive deep threats for a significant chunk of the season as a special teams blunder left Jacoby Jones with a sprained knee in Week 1. Baltimore was left with a often double-covered Torrey Smith and a handful of young, unproven wideouts.
     There is absolutely nothing young or unproven about Steve Smith.  When the Ravens signed Smith they got a veteran with quickness, amazing hands, fantastic route running ability, and the physicality that the Ravens receiving corps has lacked since the trade of Anquan Boldin.  Smith does everything that Boldin and Mason did, but he does it all a little bit more explosively.  He may not be built like Anquan Boldin, and as a result Smith may not be the devastating blocker that Q proved to be while in Baltimore.  For his size, however, Steve Smith is surprisingly physical, and has already engaged in minor, highly publicized altercations on the practice field with defensive veterans.  One important thing Steve Smith does that Boldin never could during his time in purple is separate from defenders.  Smith's ability to change direction and accelerate makes him a nightmare for even some of the games top cornerbacks--just ask Aqib Talib.
     In addition to Smith, the Ravens added former Pro Bowl tight end, Owen Daniels, to form a dynamic pass-catching duo with Dennis Pitta.  Daniels is one season removed from a trip to the Pro Bowl, and any misconception that Daniels is old an on the decline is in for a pleasant surprise this fall.  Daniels was injured for much of the 2013 season, and that led to his fall on the Texans' depth chart.  Dennis Pitta might be two years younger with far less mileage on his body than Daniels, but Daniels is totally fluent in Gary Kubiak's offensive system, and he'll hit the ground running both literally and figuratively this September. 
     The changes and additions to the offensive line and receiving corps should help to improve a Ravens rushing attack that was historically awful in 2013. I expect both Bernard Pierce and Ray Rice to be fully rehabbed form their nagging injuries and in excellent condition with a lot to prove in 2014.  Rice has reportedly looked lean and explosive thus far in off-season team activities, and the only thing that will likely hold him back from posting his old usual amazing all-purpose yardage stats will be the suspension that has yet to be leveled by commissioner Roger Goodell.
     I must address the recent reports that rice is staring down a 4-6 or more game suspension for his altercation with his wife in Atlantic City.  Rice has never been involved in any off-the-field misbehavior, and no first time offender has ever been suspended for more than 2 games.  With that said, it's entirely possible that the video of Rice carrying his fiance out of the elevator was inflammatory enough that Goodell feels pressure to make the punishment more severe than that of other first-time offenders.  Some have brought up that Ben Roethlisberger received a 4 game suspension after being accused (not charged) of rape.  One must remember, however, that the suspension came after Big Ben's SECOND rape allegation, not the first.  Ben's original suspension was for 6 games, and he reduced it to 4 games during the appeals process.  Because of the fact that Rice avoided trial with a pre-trial intervention program, I would bet that Rice will initially be suspended for 4-5 games, but that suspension will be reduced to 2-3 games through an appeal.  Enough of this legal stuff, let's get back to football.
     Because the Ravens were able to address nearly every offensive issue that marred the 2013 season before the NFL draft, it makes perfect sense that they used the draft to address major defensive departures from the 2012 season and possible major departures in 2015 and 2016.  The retirement of Ray Lewis and loss of Ed Reed left the Ravens without a middle linebacker of the future and a true free safety. Daryl Smith had a fantastic 2013 season, but he recently turned 32 and can't be counted on beyond 2-3 more seasons at most.  Haloti Ngata has not yet reached the end of his contract, but he has casually mentioned retirement in the last two years, and his refusal to sign a contract extension seems to indicate that he may simply plan to play out the remainder of his contract and then hang up his giant cleats.
     Ozzie Newsome and Eric DeCosta found themselves in pleasant circumstances in the 2014 NFL draft as they were fortunate enough to be able to draft three defensive players of 1st-2nd round level talent with their first three picks.  As luck would have it, the first three picks appear to be the successors to Ray Lewis and Ed Reed's positions, and one will likely be the immediate replacement for Arthur Jones or possibly the ultimate successor to Haloti Ngata. 
    Middle linebacker never crossed my mind as a position the Ravens would draft first in 2014, but I'm certainly glad Ozzie Newsome pulled the trigger on C.J. Mosley.  This Alabama product was ranked far too highly on the Ravens' draft board to pass up at #17.  Middle linebacker may not have seemed like a glaring need, but reports suggest that last year's 2nd round pick, Arthur Brown, was progressing in his development much more slowly that the Ravens had hoped.  Mosley, on the other hand, has reportedly hit the ground running in off-season Ravens practices, and we should expect nothing less from a player that the Ravens ranked a top ten pick on their draft board. Mosley covers sideline-to-sideline extremely well against the run and proved quite effective in pass coverage at Alabama. This young leader should see his fair share of Pro Bowls.
     I did not panic after the Ravens picked a middle linebacker with their first pick because I assumed Ozzie would surely use his second pick on one of the top free safeties left on the board. I cringed, however, when I learned the Ravens picked a defensive lineman in the second round.  What was Ozzie thinking? How could he squander both of the Ravens' first two draft picks on positions of comparative surplus when free safety and right tackle were such positions of pressing need?  Nevertheless, with each subsequent pick I noticed that the free safety I had ranked third on my Ravens Draft Wishlist, Terrence Brooks, remained unpicked and available. Sure enough, the Ravens picked the national champion FSU free safety with their third pick, and it dawned upon me that the Ravens had just drafted the future core of their defense without trading up, trading back, or picking based on need instead of the best available talent.
     Let's back up for just a moment. That defensive lineman the Ravens picked in the second round could very well be the steal of the entire draft for Baltimore in 2014.  Timmy Jernigan was easily top 20-25 talent based on his size, athleticism, and performance in an undefeated FSU season that culminated in a national championship.  Jernigan was easily the best defensive player at Florida State in 2013. He demonstrated excellent hand skills and strength as he made shedding blockers look effortless and smooth.  Jernigan displayed fantastic tackling ability and deceptive speed for a 300+ pound defensive tackle.  Jernigan may not be high on the depth chart for defensive lineman yet, but the Ravens love to frequently rotate in defensive lineman, and Timmy will undoubtedly have his chance to shine in 2014.
    We won't know exactly how well the 2014 NFL Draft went for Baltimore for at least another 1-3 seasons, but I don't think anyone can accuse Ozzie Newsome and Eric DeCosta of drafting poorly given the currently available game film and information about each of their top three picks.  This is not a situation like that of 2010 wherein questionable behavior from the likes of Sergio Kindle could leave some doubting Ozzie Newsome's judgement.  There are no major red flags in the character department for this bunch, and we should absolutely expect a new generation of leaders to emerge in the coming seasons.
    I would be remiss if I didn't discuss the Ravens trading back into the seventh round of the 2014 draft in order to pick up River Hill High School's own Michael Campanaro.  I watched this young man beat up on rival Howard County football teams for years before he went on to become the best receiver in Wake Forest history.  Some have praised Campanaro as a Wes Welker or Julian Edelman style receiver, and they're correct...but Campanaro is simply faster than both of them.  A 40 yard dash isn't necessarily evidence that one receiver will be more successful than another, but when all other factors are relatively comparable, it's nice to be the guy with the 4.46 official combine 40 time.  Edelman's time was slightly slower at 4.52 seconds, and Welker's time was significantly slower at 4.65 seconds.  Campanaro would be EXTREMELY lucky to have the success of Wes Welker, but that doesn't mean he can't be just as athletic, and even more explosive.  The short, shifty receiver should fit right into Gary Kubiak's system which frequently involves the quarterback dropping back with fewer steps in order to get the ball out far more quickly than Joe Flacco had previously done in the offenses of Cam Cameron and Jim Caldwell. Campanaro has had injury issues and even recently suffered a hamstring injury, but if he can maintain relative health as a pro, we could could soon witness the ascension to stardom of a truly home-grown talent.

I KNOW MANY OF YOU ARE IN WORLD CUP MODE AT THE MOMENT, BUT DON'T LET THAT PREVENT YOU FROM GETTING PUMPED ABOUT A MUCH IMPROVED BALTIMORE RAVENS ROSTER AND STAFF.  WE HAVE ONLY 6 WEEKS UNTIL THE START OF THE PRE-SEASON--GET HYPED FOOTBALLTIMORE!

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!

RAVENS 2014 DRAFT WISHLIST

     The pattern in recent years of Super Bowl-winning teams missing the playoffs in the following season is undoubtedly frustrating to fans of those franchises.  The Ravens proved to be no exception to that trend as they went 8-8 and missed the playoffs in 2013.  We, as Ravens fans, were frustrated as we watched a post-season berth slip away after the Ravens found themselves tied 17-17 in the 3rd quarter against a Bengals team they had already beaten earlier in the season...and then proceeded to blow it from that point on.  As soon as the Ravens tied, however, I remarked to my sister that I couldn't see Baltimore winning that game anyway as they couldn't consistently move the ball or stop the Bengals except with interceptions.  It seemed pessimistic at the time, but it proved accurate.  I found myself not saddened or shocked by the end of the season, but simply numb and ready for the aggressive changes Ozzie Newsome most certainly had in store for this uneven team.
      The season wasn't all bad.  For a four game stretch it appeared as though the Ravens were right back to their "Team of Destiny" clutch style of heroics with triumphant wins reminiscent of the previous season's Super Bowl run.  Toward the end of arguably the MOST triumphant of these wins, however, Joe Flacco's knee took a violent blow from the helmet of an opposing defender which ultimately sealed the fate of the Ravens.  Suddenly a typically confident Flacco appeared terrified to step into his throws and, thus, put any pressure on his sprained knee.  Joe even crumpled to the turf seemingly without reason in an embarrassing play at home against the Patriots the following week.
     Instead of looking back at Joe Flacco's injury as that one critical factor that snuffed out the fire and drive of a team red-hot in the second half of the season, it's important that we look at Joe's knee injury as the impetus for change to an obviously flawed team.  This wasn't the first time that Joe Flacco found himself on the receiving end of a devastating hit.  Flacco was the the second most sacked quarterback in the league, and that is not a category in which a QB wishes himself to be elite.  The offensive line simply wasn't doing its job, and the Ravens organization could  not stand by any longer and watch their 120 million dollar investment get pummeled.
      I know that the vast majority of fans wished Juan Castillo would have been tarred, feathered, and then set ablaze ceremoniously atop one of the presumably fully functional towers at the Castle/Under Armour Performance Center, but John Harbaugh had other less draconian plans for the coach that he dubbed "the finest teacher of football in the National Football League."  Those plans apparently included a public decree of job security for Castillo while the Ravens let go of their previously successful running backs coach, Wilbert Montgomery, and their Super Bowl winning offensive line coach, Andy Moller.  It remains unclear as to why Castillo received such a ringing endorsement and promotion after his changes to the Ravens' blocking schemes led to horrendous protection for Flacco and the worst rushing attack in Ravens history, but worries about Castillo were soon drowned out by far more exciting news.
     The hiring of Gary Kubiak in the eleventh hour of an offensive coordinator search brought me great hope for the 2014 season.  Not only has Gary proven himself as a head coach, but he has actually won a pair of Super Bowls as an offensive coordinator in the 1990's.  Kubiak's play-calling ability is unquestionably sound as he more recently called plays for the Texans during a period wherein they routinely finished as a top 10 offense.  The Ravens have saturated their team with quality players from the Texans during the last few seasons, and that will help to spread a level of familiarity in Baltimore with Kubiak's system during this off-season period of adjustment. 
    The Ravens didn't hit rock bottom in 2013 as they came only one quarter of one game away from reaching their 6th playoff berth in a row, but what would that have accomplished?  In all likelihood, the Baltimore wouldn't have gone past the first or second round of the playoffs, and it's possible that the team would feel a false sense of accomplishment after having reached the post-season after such a rocky first 9 games.  In this case it's better to watch the Ravens' playoff hopes crash and burn in order to fuel the desire within the organization to make strong enough changes to get the Ravens back to their previous state of dominance.  The way I see it, that's EXACTLY what they're doing right now.

THE WISHLIST BY POSITION

    
      Mock drafts might be thought provoking and fun for some, but they're far from accurate in most cases.  I've found a much better strategy is to come up with a wishlist for a particular team.  This list is achieved by first analyzing a teams' greatest draft needs by position.  The second step is to evaluate the talent in the upcoming draft and rank the top 3-4 players at each of these positions of need.  With enough careful thought and game tape analysis, you'll come away with a decent draft board for the first 3 rounds.  There's no way to know who other teams will pick, so many players you have ranked highly may not be available when your team makes its selection.  You will, however, have a good idea of who they'll pick if someone on your wishlist comes off the board.  Both of the Ravens' top two draft picks from last year were in my top three, although I had Arthur Brown as their first round pick and Matt Elam or Jonathan Cyprien going to the Ravens in the second round.  The picks become far less predictable as the rounds progress, but that's just part of the fun of this whole process.  Let's take a look at the Ravens biggest positions of need for this season.

     An argument can be made that either free safety or right offensive tackle is the biggest position of need going into 2014.  The loss of Ed Reed and the lack of a true free safety replacement led to miscommunications such as that which allowed a critical Jordy Nelson touchdown in Week 6 against the Packers.  Even when Matt Elam was playing his assignment correctly, he still managed to get beat deep because of less-than-adequate pass coverage skills that true free safeties possess.  A good example of this came against the Bengals in Week 17 when A.J. Green absolutely toasted a stumbling Matt Elam on a 53 yard touchdown pass in the first quarter.  Green experienced negligible success against the Ravens with Ed Reed lurking in the secondary, and that was even in the last two seasons of Ed's time with the Ravens wherein he was noticeably past his prime.  It's clearly unfair to blame Matt Elam for not being Ed Reed, but there's no question that Baltimore needs a natural free safety to compliment the other pieces of an otherwise excellent secondary.
     It's easy to point to the relative success of the Ravens defense last season and the utter LACK of success of the Ravens offense as good reasons to proclaim offensive tackle the biggest positional need heading into the draft.  Michael Oher never quite became the lineman for which the Ravens had hoped, but he still gave Baltimore a good number of quality performances including fantastic pass protection during the spectacular Super Bowl run.  Oher was, however, heavily penalized, and he often made inexcusable errors such as his three false starts at HOME against the Steelers last Thanksgiving night.  Oher's run-blocking ability last season was atrocious and appeared to have gotten worse every year since his fantastic rookie season.
     Protecting Flacco and creating holes through which the Ravens running backs can consistently run are both huge priorities if the Ravens hope to get back to the playoffs next season.  With that said, however, the Ravens have already made massive and sweeping changes to their offensive coaching and player personnel including a new offensive coordinator with a totally new offensive system, an upgrade at the center position, and the return of Kelechi Osemele as a starting left guard.  It is for this reason that acquiring a talented free safety must be the first priority for the Ravens in the 2014 draft.  It must also be noted that the Ravens won't likely be able to pick an elite tackle (one talented enough to be able to also play left tackle) with the 17th pick in the first round, but they should be able to pick one of the two top free safeties in the draft at that point if all goes well.
     I'm fairly convinced the Ravens will use their first two picks on a free safety and offensive tackle, but it's entirely possible that Ozzie Newsome will find himself staring at a draft board with remaining top talent at the wide receiver or tight end positions.  This draft in particular appears saturated with receiving talent.  If a receiver such as Mike Evans or a tight end such as Eric Ebron falls to the Ravens at #17, it could be too difficult to pass up the opportunity to draft such an explosive weapon to ultimately take the place of Steve Smith or Owen Daniels.  The more likely scenario is that a slightly less highly touted receiver falls to the Ravens in the second round of the draft, at which point they could pull the trigger if he's the most talented player left on the board.
     Some might bring up the point that the Ravens are actually quite well stocked at receiver and tight end at the moment, but might be staring serious running back depth issues in the face soon enough if Ray Rice is either convicted of a felony or at least suspended for a few games.  As poorly as the Ravens running backs performed in 2013, I firmly believe both Rice and Pierce will be back in impressive form in 2014 after having rehabbed nagging injuries and become fully integrated into Gary Kubiak's offensive system.  No, I would not take any running back with the third pick of this draft.  The Ravens third greatest position of need is cornerback.
     The Ravens lost Corey Graham and could use more talent and depth at a position so paramount to defensive success in a league that relies so heavily on aerial attacks.  The Seahawks showed the incredible value of a deep, aggressive secondary as they spanked the Broncos up and down the field in Super Bowl 48.  The Ravens have two top notch starting corners in Lardarius Webb and Jimmy Smith, but they'll need more depth for nickel and dime packages when facing pass-heavy teams.  Ok, so that's the order of our draft priority: free safety, right tackle, and cornerback.  I acknowledge that there's a chance the Ravens don't pick a cornerback with their third pick of the draft, but they do have two third round picks, and there's a good chance that one of them is an athletic corner.

FREE SAFETIES

CALVIN PRYOR-    This Louisville safety plays like a Raven.  His game tape shows devastating hits and a knack for forcing fumbles and making impressive, physics-defying interceptions.  Pryor is a free safety, but a good majority of his highlights are of impressive plays in run support.  Pryor's game tape is so impressive because of the ferocity with which he hits his opponents, but there are times where he fails to wrap up opponents or takes a bad angle and misses entirely.  Pryor has great size at 6'2" and 208 pounds, but he doesn't have elite speed as he ran an official 4.58 at the NFL combine.  Pryor could also find himself on the receiving end of penalty flags and fines if he makes helmet to helmet contact with receivers during his any of his violent, thunderous hits.  With that said, I would be absolutely thrilled to see the Ravens pick Calvin Pryor at #17 in May.  Take a look at his highlights: ULTIMATE CALVIN PRYOR HIGHLIGHTS

HA HA CLINTON-DIX- Clinton-Dix seems to be widely regarded as the best free safety in this draft.  He may not hit like Pryor, make as many tackles, or force as many fumbles, but his football I.Q. is said to be quite high.  This Alabama product has displayed impressive range in pass coverage which is something the Ravens sorely need going forward.  Even though he doesn't have as many spectacular hits as Calvin Pryor, Clinton-Dix has far more NFL-friendly tackling style.  Clinton-Dix tends to wrap up on his tackles and gator-roll in order to bring an opponent down rather than simply lowering his shoulder and trying to knock a receiver or running back out.  Wrapping up and rolling is something employed by Ray Lewis quite often over his lengthy career.  This not only helps to avoid fines and penalties, but it also helps to avoid injuries from dangerous collisions like those suffered by Ed Reed in the later years of his career as a Raven.  You won't often see Ha Ha hitting receivers high, but instead wrapping up anywhere on the torso or around the legs.  Clinton-Dix is almost exactly the same size as Calvin Pryor at 6'1" 208 pounds, and he ran an identical official 40 yard dash time at the NFL combine of 4.58 seconds.  Ha Ha's superior pass coverage skills and situational recognition would  likely prove highly complimentary to Matt Elam's traditional strong safety talents. If he's available at #17, the Ravens would be nuts not to take him.  Take a look at this highlights: HA HA CLINTON-DIX ALABAMA HIGHLIGHTS

TERRENCE BROOKS- I loved what I saw the first time I watched Terrence Brooks' highlights.  As you'll soon see, there are plenty of spectacular interceptions, great wrapped-up tackles, forced fumbles, passes defensed, and big hits.  Brooks is quite fast with an official combine 40 of 4.42 (roughly the same as Torrey Smith) and that track speed converts quite well on the field as he appears quite explosive with great range.  So why shouldn't the Ravens go after Brooks in the first round if Clinton-Dix and Pryor are no longer on the board?  Well that's simple.  Brooks is undersized compared to the two aforementioned top-tier safeties.  He's 5'11" and that's not terrible, but he's also 198 pounds and only bench pressed 10 reps of 225 pounds at the combine.  Bench press isn't everything, especially not for a safety, but it reflects an obvious lack of time and effort in the weight room.  Brooks is built far more like a corner than a safety.  I would worry about his durability given his lacking musculature and recent injury history.  With all of that said, if the Ravens don't take a safety in the first round, they may be wise to trade a 3rd round pick away in order to trade UP in the second round to ensure they can snag Brooks.  If he can put in the work in the weight room, Terrance Brooks could be the future of free safety for the Ravens. Take a look at his impressive highlights: ULTIMATE TERRENCE BROOKS HIGHLIGHTS

LAMARCUS JOYNER- This Florida State Seminole has one of the most entertaining game tapes to watch out of all of the safeties I've listed.  It's not because he's the most physically gifted, because Joyner stands at only 5'8" and weighs a mere 190 pounds.  It's simply that the guy is an athlete.  He's explosive, he's great in pass coverage and run support, and he plays like he's 5 inches taller and 20 pounds heavier.  If the Ravens fail to pick up Clinton-Dix or Calvin Pryor in the first round because they've opted to pick a left tackle, and if they've gone through the second and still haven't picked up a safety, then Lamarcus Joyner would actually be a great value in the third round.  He could quite possibly do well at nickel corner, and despite his stature, he could be a great all-around defensive back to add depth to the Ravens secondary.  He's not the guy I'd want to replace Ed Reed, but he can still clearly make a team better.  I feel as though I'm rooting for Rudy Ruettiger when watching this diminutive safety take down a much bigger receiver, running back, or tight end...except Ruettiger had absolutely zero athletic talent and this guy is a friggin BEAST.  Take a look at his highlights: ULTIMATE LAMARCUS JOYNER HIGHLIGHTS


OFFENSIVE TACKLES

TAYLOR LEWAN- From a talent standpoint, Taylor Lewans should not be available when the Ravens pick at #17.  Because of some questionable off the field activity, however, Lewan could slide to the middle of the round.  Lewan was allegedly in a bar fight last December and was charged last night in association with that incident.  This University of Michigan product ran an incredibly fast official 40 yard dash at the NFL combine of 4.87 seconds.  To give you some perspective, Jerry Rice ran the 40 in 4.71 seconds many years ago and he is widely regarded as the greatest (though not nearly the fastest) wide receiver in history.  There's no question that Lewan is quick for an offensive lineman, and at 6'7" with 33.5 inch arms, he also has prototypical length for an offensive tackle.  Lewan is only slightly undersized as far as muscle is concerned.  He could use some extra time in the weight room as his lower body isn't particularly thick.  With that said, what Lewan lacks in brute strength, he makes up for in speed, agility, and finesse.  We can only hope that Taylor Lewan's draft stock has fallen enough for 16 other teams to pass on him, because he would likely be the last piece to the Ravens' offensive line puzzle and a great replacement for the departed Michael Oher.  I don't, however, expect the New York Giants to pass on him if he's available at pick #12...but there's always hope!  Take a look at how Lewan matched up against Jadeveon Clowney: JADEVEON CLOWNEY VS. TAYLOR LEWAN (2013 BOWL)

ZACK MARTIN- The Ravens have been linked to Martin in a number of mock drafts as some believe he'll be more likely available than Taylor Lewan at #17.  Martin isn't quite as tall as Lewan as he stands 6'4", but he has almost identical mass at 308 pounds.  Martin, like Lewan, could stand to put on 10-15 pounds of muscle, but his agility helps to make up for being slightly undersized for an NFL offensive tackle.  His arm length is also only half an inch less than that of Taylor Lewan despite a 3 inch disparity in height between the two first round prospects.  Martin manhandled the nation's sack leader, Trent Murphy, in Notre Dame's match-up against Standford at the end of the 2013 season.  Glancing at a stat sheet, one might say that Martin's size shouldn't be an issue because Michael Oher is only 6'4" and roughly 6-pounds heavier than Martin, but I can personally attest that Michael Oher's height is under-reported (possibly on purpose) but the Ravens.  In reality, Oher is easily 6'5"-6'6", but that doesn't mean Martin can't be extreme effective on the right side.  Like Oher, Martin is extremely quick on his feet, and isn't far behind Taylor Lewan in talent level.  It's also entirely possible that Martin could prove a better run-blocker than Oher has been recently.  Martin isn't my first choice for the Ravens' first round pick, but that doesn't mean I wouldn't be happy if they pick him.  If Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Calvin Pryor, and Taylor Lewan are all off the board just before the Ravens pick, it wouldn't be a bad idea for them to trade back in the first round to maybe the mid 20s in order to get another early round pick at still be able to pick up Martin.  Take a look at his performance against Trent Murphy: ZACK MARTIN VS. TRENT MURPHY (NOTRE DAME VS. STANFORD)

JOE BITONIO- This Nevada product, like Zack Martin, does not possess ideal dimensions for an NFL offensive tackle.  He's 6'4" and 307 pounds, but he's an excellent run blocker and surprisingly quick for an offensive lineman with an official 4.97 second 40 yard dash time.  His arm length 34 inches so he does possess decent length for his height, but his technique needs some work as he tends to shoot his hands wide when in pass protection and tends not to bend as well as he probably could at times.  Bitonio could stand to spend some extra time in the weight room as he only bench pressed 225 for 22 reps at the combine, and that doesn't demonstrate particularly good upper body strength. Joe isn't a first round offensive tackle, but he's a high-motor player with the work ethic that could ultimately lead to him correcting his technique errors and becoming a starter on the right side.  Like Marshall Yanda, Joe often finishes his run-blocks far down field.  It's quite possible that he'd be a better fit at guard, but his ability to fit in at both of these positions as well as his arm length, speed, and drive will make him a valuable asset if picked in the second or third round.  It wouldn't be a terrible thing to have a speedy, great run-blocker on the right side in Gary Kubiak's running scheme.  Take a look at Joe's highlights and pay special attention to his technique as he could definitely stand to lower his pad level at times, but he's quite an athlete: JOE BITONIO--2014 NFL DRAFT PROSPECT

CORNERBACKS

     *It must be noted that these are not the most talented corners in the draft, but the most talented corners that I believe will be available by the 3rd round.

   JASON VERRETT- I don't expect the Ravens to pick a corner in the first or even second round, but they have two picks in the 3rd round and that will give them a great opportunity to add corner depth to a secondary that lost Corey Graham in free agency.  Jason Verrett of TCU possesses elite speed with an official 40 time of 4.38 seconds and excellent coverage skills.  He's not ideal corner height at 5'9" at that's what makes his stock drop from 1st round talent to 2nd or 3rd round talent.  Even against top teams such as LSU Verrett held his own and mostly shut down his side of the field.  The Ravens already have two top notch corners with better size to put on the outside, but they could use an extremely fast, athletic corner to blanket slot receivers in coverage.  He will unquestionably have to spend plenty of time in the weight room, however, as he could easily stand to gain 5-10 pounds of muscle to help his tackling ability against bigger backs and receivers as well as increase his level of durability.  He's 3 inches shorter than Corey Graham, but similar in build to a young Cortland Finnegan and easily just as fast and energetic.  Verrett would be a fantastic pick-up in the 3rd round.  This guy flies to the ball and plays like a Raven. Take a look at this highlights: ULTIMATE JASON VERRETT HIGHLIGHTS

PHILIP GAINES- I hadn't heard of Gaines before doing my draft research, but I must say I was impressed with his highlights.  Gaines possesses good height at 6'0" and BLISTERING speed with a 4.38 official combine 40 time.  He's only 4 pounds heavier than Jason Verrett, but is a much heavier hitter and isn't afraid to level a receiver with a punishing blow.  With that said, Philip Gaines could, like Jason Verrett, benefit from a little more time in the weight room to improve his durability, but I believe his upside is quite high. He had a whopping 35 passes defensed in the last two seasons, so I'll post one video of high highlights from 2012 and a shorter video of his highlights from 2013.  This would be a good 3rd round pick-up, no question.  Take a look at his highlights from 2012: PHILIP GAINES 2012 PASS BREAKUPS
 Also take a look at this highlights from 2013: PHILIP GAINES--2014 NFL DRAFT PROSPECT HIGHLIGHTS

DONTAE JOHNSON- This big-bodied corner out of N.C. State may not be first round material, but he does have first round size and speed at 6'2" 200 pounds with an official combine 40 time of 4.45 seconds.  He doesn't have outstanding arm length at 31 inches, and he doesn't always take great angles. Johnson had a tough time covering Sammy Watkins (as most college corners would) and although he's not undersized, he could stand to add 5-8 pounds of muscle to his long, lean frame to increase his physicality and durability. He does, however, cover tight ends extremely well and that can make him a huge asset to the Ravens.  His coverage and balls skills aren't as good as Jason Verrett's, but he still possesses enough speed, size, and athleticism to ultimately make a good second or third corner.  He could benefit greatly from Lardarius Webb's mentorship.  This guy is a bit of a project, but you can't teach size and it's tough to teach speed.  Take a look at his bowl performance against Vanderbilt: DONTAE JOHNSON VS. VANDERBILT


     Mock Drafts are purely speculative fun.  There's almost no way to accurately predict what each team will do, because each team's choice depends on the choices of the teams before them.  Draft wishlists and positional rankings, however, are more fun for me as they go further in depth with a specific team's needs and potential pick candidates.  I maintain that the Ravens biggest need is a talented, natural free safety to re-solidify the middle of the defensive backfield and complete and otherwise stacked secondary.  Finding a good right tackle comes in a close second as the greatest position of need, but the Ravens have done enough to bolster their offensive line already that they shouldn't overreach in the first round if a top 3-4 tackle isn't available.  They'll get much better value out of Ha Ha Clinton-Dix or Calvin Pryor than a second round tackle that could potentially be taken later in the first round or early in the second.  
     I know the Ravens offense was painfully anemic last year, and that would make some believe that offense should be the team's biggest draft priority.  The Ravens, however, have simply made too many moves to strengthen their offense thus far and too few to address the key defensive secondary departures of the last two seasons of Ed Reed and Corey Graham.  The hiring of Gary Kubiak as offensive coordinator was a massive upgrade over Jim Caldwell, and the acquisition of Steve Smith, Owen Daniels, Jeremy Zuttah, and Justin Forsett give the Ravens depth and proven playmakers at nearly every offensive position.  Get ready, Baltimore, this looks like it could be easily one of the most complete teams the Ravens have ever fielded.  Ed and Ray are gone, but their fierce style rubbed off on Suggs, Ngata, Webb, and Jimmy Smith.  Ozzie Newsome is about due for a monumental draft, and with the talent and depth in this one, I don't think there's any way he'll miss.

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!

SUPER BOWL PREDICTION!!!

     This simply was not my year for playoff predictions.  I am currently 4-6 after going 20-2 in the last two post-seasons.  Maybe I haven't had as much time to spend analyzing data, or maybe football simply isn't always predictable based on statistics and analysis.  I could sit here and blame my losses on things out of my control, but the fact is that I realized my error in reasoning and analysis after each incorrect prediction this post-season.  In the AFC Championship, for example, I bet that the Patriots would beat the Broncos because the Broncos have a poor pass defense.  The Patriots, however, had an offense that depended greatly on its ability to run the football.  Somehow I didn't take into serious consideration the fact that the Broncos had the 8th ranked run defense in the league this season, and I assumed that the Patriots would be able to take advantage of a banged up Broncos' secondary.  Lo and behold, the Broncos run defense mostly stuffed the Patriots rushing attack, and that made the Patriots one dimensional.  If I had researched more extensively, I would have also found out that the winner of Peyton Manning and Tom Brady's AFC Championship matches was always the quarterback playing at home.  Oh yeah...let's not forget the weather.  It was nearly 60 degrees that day in Denver, and Peyton Manning has thus far avoided playing any of this season's playoff games in serious cold weather despite playing each game in Denver.  I have NO idea how I bet against Manning at home in warm weather, but it only shows that more time and attention to detail will be required for next year's playoff predictions if I hope to get back to my accurate ways of years past. 
     Maybe Old Man Winter is a Broncos fan because Peyton Manning has received an incredibly timely gift of unseasonably warm Denver winter weather in the last month.  Maybe it's fate that may grant Manning a similar fairytale ending to his remarkable and lengthy career as that enjoyed by Ray Lewis last year.  Whatever the reason, the conditions are perfect for history's most intelligent football player to win his second Super Bowl ring against one of the NFL's best defenses.  Yes, I said it--ONE of the NFL's best defenses.  I still consider the 49ers defense better this season because of its ability shut down high powered offenses on the road such as that of the Packers in Green Bay in the playoffs.  The Seahawks defense gets a huge boost from the deafening level of noise from their fans in Seattle during home games, and that has allowed the Seahawks to suffocate opposing offenses at home far better than on the road.  One the road, for example, the Seahawks barely beat the Texans in overtime this season, and Houston was basically the worst team in the NFL.  Also on the road, the Seahawks lost to the Colts and gave up 34 points to a team that did little in the playoffs.  No games, however, better exemplify the Seahawks'  homefield advantage than those played against the 49ers.
     The Seahawks absolutely flattened the 49ers in Seattle early in the season 29-3, and then proceeded to lose to that very same 49ers team in San Francisco 19-17.  There's little doubt in my mind that the 49ers were the more talented team in this season's NFC Championship, but injuries to key players during the game and the Seattle's homefield advantage gave the Seahawks the edge they needed to squeak by the 49ers on national television.  The Seahawks will not have a homefield advantage on Super Bowl Sunday.  There will likely be plenty of Seahawks fans screaming themselves hoarse, but there will also most likely be just as many Broncos fans if not more doing the same for their respective team.  To make matters worse for the Hawks, the weather is supposed to be quite good for New York/New Jersey in the winter.  Weather.com is predicting the temperature at the start of the game to be roughly 43 degrees, and that's easily warm enough for Peyton Manning to dominate any team up and down the field for 60 minutes.  In fact, the temperature will likely not drop below 38 degrees during any point of the game, and no precipitation is predicted to occur until hours after the game has finished.
     If it hasn't already become abundantly clear, I'm predicting a Broncos win.  In relatively warm weather, Peyton Manning is the king.  This season he has a supporting cast that has helped him to lead the most productive offense in the history of the NFL.  The Seahawks have a great defense, but it's not a historically great defense.  It's not that of '85 Bears and it's CERTAINLY nowhere near that of the 2000 Ravens.  This is a Seahawks defense that has yet to face any seriously potent offenses this season in tough road environments, and they're about to face the toughest offense in the NFL roughly 3000 miles away from home.  The Seahawks defense is statistically elite, but please be aware that the Seattle faced exactly one top 10 ranked offense during the entire season and that was the Saints at home.  Compare that to the 2013 Ravens defense which performed relatively well despite facing the 1st, 3rd, 6th, 7th, 8th, and 10th ranked offenses in the NFL this season. 
     I prefer to base my opinion of any particular team or component of a team on how well they've performed against tough competition.  It is for this reason that I believe the Seahawks defense to be at least somewhat overrated.  Peyton Manning may struggle at times during the Super Bowl, and his team may struggle to put up points in the first half of the game.  Peyton Manning, however, is famous for his halftime adjustments, and he should have little problem finding soft spots even in the highly touted Legion of Boom.  Peyton's quick release makes sacking him nearly impossible, and Knowshon Moreno's explosive running helps to open up space over the middle for the Broncos receiving corps.  Let's not forget that the Broncos possess the most complete receiving corps in the league with a huge, athletic tight end, the best slot receiver in the NFL, and two tall, elite wide receivers.  Richard Sherman can proclaim himself to be the best corner in the game, but he has faced only one wide receiver that finished in the top 10 this season and that was Andre Johnson on the miserable Texans.  Sherman can pat himself on the back for his 8 interceptions, but not a single one of them came against an elite passing quarterback this season.  Sherman can stick Demariyus Thomas at the line all he wants, but Peyton tends to find open receivers and find them quickly.  I haven't historically liked Peyton Manning in the playoffs, but his array of weapons is so vast and the weather will not likely prohibit him from distributing the ball to them.
     Russell Wilson is not Peyton Manning.  He has shown plenty of athleticism and poise for a young quarterback, but he's not winning league MVP anytime soon (because Peyton just won it for the 5th time).  The Seahawks have a poor pass offense with few receiving weapons with which to threaten the Broncos pass defense.  If the Patriots can't move the ball on the Broncos, I have no idea how the Seahawks expect to do so.  The Hawks rely heavily on their running game, but the Broncos defend the run almost as well as anyone else in the league.  Marshawn Lynch will likely be held under 100 rushing yards, and that will put the ball in Wilson's hands too often and for too long.  The Seahawks simply won't be able to score as many points as the Broncos, and that means a loss.

FINAL PREDICTION: BRONCOS 27-20.

RECENT RAVENS NEWS

     The Ravens hired the best offensive coordinator available this off-season when they brought Gary Kubiak on board.  Kubiak's system should fit Flacco quite well with an emphasis on running the football to set up deep passes off of play-action.  Kubiak's system should also further develop Flacco's ability to roll out of the pocket and extend plays with passes on the run.   Gary K. also loves to use tight ends, and he ESPECIALLY likes to use tight ends in the redzone.  It's possible that we'll see Dennis Pitta and a newly drafted tight end or possibly even Matt Furstenburg in two tight end sets fairly frequently next season.  A big problem with the Ravens' offensive system over the past few years has been an inability to find creative ways to get receivers open.  Kubiak's system should take care of that issue assuming that the offensive line improves.  The bottom line is that Gary Kubiak's offense gets results.  He has won a Super Bowl as an offensive coordinator, and he has had many elite offenses as a head coach.  He is not Cam Cameron who kept Drew Brees under 3500 yards per season for 5 years, and he's definitely not Jim Caldwell who had never EVER been an offensive coordinator before 2012 and may never be one again.  Gary is a man with a plan, and hopefully that plan will bring Ray Rice's career back from the dead and get the Ravens deep into the playoffs next season. 
     The limiting factor for Gary Kubiak's offense may be what likely limited the Ravens offense this season: JUAN CASTILLO.  For reasons I can't begin to explain, Juan Castillo was kept on the Ravens staff and somehow promoted to offensive line coach.  Castillo displayed a total inability to get anything out of a group of linemen of which most of whom had just won a Super Bowl.  It's clear that John Harbaugh insisted on keeping yet another one of his buddy's on his staff, and Steve Bisciotti decided to give John a chance to prove that he didn't make a mistake by bringing him on board the Ravens organization.  It's entirely possible that the Ravens line will improve by virtue of Kubiak's offensive system and improved line personnel, but it's also possible that Castillo will find SOME way to waste another year of our lives.  I'm optimistic that Castillo will have less schematic authority with Kubiak as offensive coordinator, but Ravens fans should be wary of the power Harbaugh seems to give to his inept cronies. 
     Ultimately I believe the hiring of Gary Kubiak will do enough for the Ravens offense that Juan Castillo simply won't be able to ruin it.  I'm anxiously looking forward to the draft in early May, but I'm just as excited to watch film of Ravens draft prospects and see how these potential future Ravens do at the NFL combine.  I'll once again post draft wishlists with info on my top 3 picks for each of the Ravens' major positions of need.  Baltimore has a much better spot in the draft order this year, and that should allow them to get a highly sought-after player rather than settling for bargain talent that could have possibly been picked at the beginning of the second round. 

BUCKLE UP, RAVENS FANS
THE BIRDS OF BALTIMORE WILL BE BACK IN A BIG WAY IN 2014!

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!! (GO DRAFT A GREAT WR!)

AFC AND NFC CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTIONS!!

     The Ravens aren't in the AFC Championship for the first time in 3 years, but that doesn't mean Baltimore area football fans won't enjoy what's about to transpire on Sunday afternoon.  This could be one of the final (if not THE final) playoff showdowns between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.  What makes this game interesting is not only the fact that each quarterback is an unquestionable future hall-of-famer, but that each of their respective teams has developed a complete offense from top to bottom including a power running game and a high octane passing attack.  Peyton Manning won his first ever playoff game in weather below 40 degrees last weekend against the Chargers, but that was a Chargers team with an injured workhorse running back as Ryan Matthews played through a sprained ankle and finished with only 26 rushing yards on the day.
     The Patriots pose a far greater challenge to the Broncos as they're a great cold-weather playoff team with a coaching staff that knows quite well how to beat Peyton Manning's offenses.  Both teams have lost a sizable list of defensive pieces since the beginning of the season, and that should produce a high-scoring offensive battle royale.  Which one of these top two offenses will come out on top?  You may have already made up your mind about which team will win this game, but indulge me for a bit and let's take a look at major matchups and key factors that should give us a better understanding of what to expect from the AFC's top two teams.

PATRIOTS AT BRONCOS

     There has been a definite theme to the Denver Broncos' 2013 season: high powered offense with lackluster defense.  It may seem perplexing how the elite 2012 Broncos defense could fall so hard in 2013, but it certainly wasn't perplexing to me.  Since last season, the Broncos lost Elvis Dumervil and spent much of the season playing without Von Miller who is out for the rest of the season with an injury.  Taking away any teams two best pass rushers in a pass-happy league is a recipe for a defensive collapse.  Great pass rushers can cover up deficiencies in a secondary, and their absence can reveal those deficiencies in a hurry.  Despite having the 8th ranked run defense in the league, the Broncos pass defense ranked near the bottom of the league at 27th in passing yards allowed per game.  The Broncos defense also allowed the 11th most points per game this season, and that might have been a major problem if the Denver offense hadn't scored 606 points in 2013.
     The Patriots offense didn't score anywhere near 606 points.  That, however, doesn't mean that they weren't one of the highest scoring teams in the league this season.  Only the Bears and Broncos scored more than the Patriots this season; it just happens that the Broncos scored a LOT more. What's more impressive about the Patriots' offensive production is that their offensive personnel and changed so drastically over the course of the season, and somehow Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and company found a way to remind dominant and consistently win games.  When Gronk went down again, the Patriots placed a new emphasis on power running that absolutely flattened the Colts last week.  It wasn't as though the Patriots had great defensive personnel to back up their offense either as season ending injuries took down players such as Vince Wilfork and Jerrod Mayo.  Thus, the theme of the Patriots' 2013 season should be something like the following: finding ways to win with whatever tools are available.
     The last meeting between the Patriots and Broncos was far away from Denver and decided by a razor-thin overtime margin.  As close as that game was, it demonstrated the interesting offensive characteristics and capabilities of both teams.  First, it demonstrated that the Broncos don't require a great performance from Peyton Manning to put up a lot of points in a hurry as Knowshon Moreno was nearly unstoppable running the football.  Second, it demonstrated that the Patriots can put up points just as fast or faster even when faced with 24 point deficit at halftime due to the surgical precision of Tom Brady and a well-coached opportunistic Patriots defense.
     The Patriots defense is not elite by any stretch of the imagination.  The unit has certainly lost plenty of star players, but one way or another, they're more effective than the Broncos defense.  That brings me to the key factor that will likely decide this game: the Broncos' loss of Chris Harris.  Last week the Broncos held the Chargers scoreless in the first 3 quarters of the game, and it looked as though the game could end in an utter blowout.  By the 4th quarter, however, the Broncos lost one of their starting cornerbacks to a torn ACL, and the Chargers came roaring back in a hurry to shrink the Broncos' lead to just one touchdown.  The Chargers defense failed to get Phillip Rivers the ball back one more time, and the Broncos obviously won the game, but it became apparent that the Broncos defense was suddenly an entirely different animal with a backup corner playing.  That same backup won't be starting this week, but that only means an extremely OLD cornerback will be starting instead.  Champ Bailey is still serviceable at his position, but I highly doubt his 35 year old legs will be able to contend with the quickness of Danny Amendola or Julian Edelman. 
     When it comes to the playoffs, I tend to believe that the most complete teams are the most successful teams.  That idea only becomes more apparent the deeper we go into the playoffs as the competition has been whittled down to only the strongest teams, and any glaring weaknesses are usually exploited by elite opponents.  The Patriots are simply the more complete team going into this game.  Their defense is stronger than that of the Broncos, and their offense is easily just as potent with the recent surge in their power running game.  Don't get me wrong, I will be rooting for Peyton Manning to get his chance to get his second and final ring and ride off into the sunset just the way that Ray did in that perfect storybook fashion, but my brain says the Patriots are going to win this game.  This will not be a particularly cold game, so that won't be in the Patriots' favor, but I simply don't see how the Broncos will be able to slow down Tom Brady and LeGarrette Blount enough to win this game.  No matter who wins, I have a feeling this will be an epic showdown the world of sports will long remember and possibly a defining moment in the careers of either or both of these future hall-of-famers.

FINAL PREDICTION:  PATRIOTS 38-33.

     The great thing about this Championship Sunday is that the two best teams from each conference are playing.  I know it's always fun to see an underdog make it all the way through the way the Ravens did in both of their Super Bowl runs, but this is a chance to see one of the best rivalries of the last decade and a half as well as the best NEW rivalry of the last few seasons.  The 49ers and Seahawks have become what the Ravens and Steelers used to be a few years ago.  They're both saturated with big, physical, talented players, and they're built for smash-mouth running and suffocating defense.  Both teams also possess talented young quarterbacks still on their rookie contracts, and that allows each team the salary cap space to maintain an extreme level of talent and depth surrounding Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson. 
     The 49ers haven't won in Seattle for years now, and the homefield advantage the Seahawks possess is in large part to blame.  It's difficult to communicate inside that historically loud stadium, and the Seahawks organization goes to great lengths to make sure of that.  The most recent example of this is the fact that the Seahawks organization wouldn't even SELL tickets to the NFC Championship to residents of the state of California...sounds like they're a little scared that opposing fans might take over their stadium in the way Ravens fans invaded every stadium of the playoffs last post-season. 
     The last time the 49ers played in Seattle Seahawks Stadium, they were basically shut down and embarrassed in every phase of play.  Anquan Boldin was shut down, Vernon Davis failed to pose much of a matchup threat, and Michael Crabtree--well he wasn't even playing.  A lot has changed since the last time these teams faced one another in Seattle, so let's take a look at exactly what is different now.

     49ERS AT SEAHAWKS
    
     The 49ers made a fool out of me the last two weeks.  I thought they weren't built to outscore the Packers in one of the coldest football games in NFL history.  I also that that if their offense only scored 23 points on a poor Green Bay defense, then there was no way they'd put up enough point on the road against a Panthers team that held them to 9 points in San Francisco a month earlier.  I now know better.  In both of these cases, the 49ers were simply the more complete team.  The 49ers have a better combination of offense and defense than both the Packers and Panthers.  The Seahawks are also a more complete team than both the Packers and Panthers, but their offense impresses me far less than that of the 49ers now that Michael Crabtree is back. 
     There's no doubt in my mind that Marshawn Lynch will put up a good chunk of yards on the ground against San Francisco.  It's likely that Lynch could put up at least 100 yards and 1-2 rushing touchdowns.  The problem for Seattle is that they don't have a great number of offensive weapons BESIDES Lynch and his backup, Turbin.  The Seahawks are 26th in passing yards per game, and they'll be without Percy Harvin who suffered an early concussion last week against the Saints.  What SHOULD scare Seattle fans is just how little offensive production their team achieved at home against a Saints defense that isn't nearly as strong on the road.
     Last week Russell Wilson threw for a pathetic 103 passing yards with no touchdowns, and he was sacked 3 times.   It should be noted that the Saints possessed the 2nd ranked pass defense in the league this season, but that didn't stop Wilson from throwing for 310 yards and 3 touchdowns against that very same Saints defense in Week 13 of the regular season.  Russell Wilson didn't need to throw for over 300 yards last week to beat the Saints, but the fact that the Seahawks only won by a margin of 8 points should be at least somewhat troubling for anyone in Seattle.  The Seahawks allowed 15 4th quarter points by Drew Brees, and showed definite defensive weaknesses when they needed to keep the ball away from a dangerous elite quarterback.
     The 49ers had an even lower ranked pass offense than the Seahawks during the regular season.  That hasn't seemed to matter in the playoffs, however, as Colin Kaepernick got right back to his previous post-season form with 98 rushing yards and 227 passing yards against the Packers while Anquan Boldin put up an impressive 136 receiving yards and Kaepernick scored two touchdowns against a tough Panthers defense.  Two major keys have led to an upswing in the 49ers offensive production on the road in this post-season.  The first is the return of Michael Crabtree.  Crabtree doesn't always put up fantastic statistics, but his presence helps to stretch opposing defenses, take pressure off of Boldin and Vernon Davis, and further open things up for the 49ers power running game.  The second factor has been the change in the style of play of Colin Kaepernick.  Earlier in the season, Kaepernick was encouraged to play from the pocket more as it was less risky than frequently running the football.  As a result, Kaepernick's statistics took a hit, and many were wondering is he had regressed.  In the post-season, however, each game could be the last any team plays if they don't win, and that means it has behooved the 49ers to allow Colin Kaepernick to play the athletic style of football that got his team to the Super Bowl last season. 
     I can see exactly how many fans, players, and commentators would give this game to the Seahawks.  The Hawks have been nearly unbeatable at home this season, and the 49ers were one of their many victims in that ferocious Seattle stadium.  This, however, is not the same 49ers team as the one the Seahawks faced in Week 2.  The 49ers have won their last 8 games, and they won their last 3 games on the road against the Cardinals, Packers, and Panthers.  The Seahawks don't appear to be nearly as dominant as they were prior to Week 14...when they last faced the 49ers and lost.  I get it, Seattle has an incredible homefield advantage, but the 49ers are on a road roll right now.  Like the Ravens of last season, there's no homefield advantage strong enough to beat the hottest and currently most complete team in the NFL.  I'm going with the underdog here.

FINAL PREDICTION: 49ERS 24-20.

     I know I'm going against the popular opinion with both of these picks, but the Seahawks and Broncos simply don't appear as strong as their opponents this week.  Once again, I could be proven totally wrong, and this season I'm ok with that.  If I'm wrong about these picks, it doesn't mean that my reasoning wasn't sound, it just means that anything can happen in the NFL, and no one can predict the future.  Besides, I'm currently ranked 149th in the entire country in NFL.com's fantasy playoff challenge.  As it stands, if both the Broncos and Seahawks prove my predictions wrong, it means all of my fantasy players advance to the Super Bowl, and I have a legitimate shot at winning the grand prize.  I guess you could say I've hedged my bets this week.  I stand by my picks though, and I'm looking forward to some good food, good beer, and great NFL playoff action.

A WORD ABOUT THE RAVENS COACHING STAFF

     I can't say I wasn't upset the Ravens didn't at least appear to make an attempt to request an interview with Norv Turner for the vacant offensive coordinator position in Baltimore.  Maybe the Ravens already knew the Browns wouldn't grant a divisional opponent permission to interview one of their coordinators, but it still hurts to see one of the best OC's in the game slip through our collective metaphorical fingers (wings?).  I was at first a bit troubled by the idea of the Ravens hiring Kyle Shanahan after I heard many Redskins fans complain about him this season.  I later realized, however, that Shanahan coordinated 4 top 10 offenses in the last 6 seasons.  That fact may have to do with the amount of talent surrounding him on most of those offenses, but I'm willing to entertain the idea that the guy at least knows what he's doing more than Jim Caldwell considering the fact that Caldwell had only been an offensive coordinator for 7 games before this season.  
     The idea of hiring Kyle Shanahan doesn't scare me.  What ACTUALLY scares me is the idea that the Ravens brought in Shanahan to interview simply because his offensive style would mesh well with Juan Castillo's horrendous blocking schemes.  This is troubling because it appears as though John Harbaugh has gone totally off the deep end if he thinks that one should choose an offensive coordinator to fit an offensive line coach rather than the other way around.  Castillo did the worst job coaching the Ravens offensive line of any offensive line coach in team history.  Why Harbaugh appears to want to design the Ravens offense around his failed collection of ideas is totally beyond me.  I wanted to give Harbaugh at least some credit for the Ravens success during Flacco's first 5 seasons, but it appears as though the Ravens mostly won in spite of Harbaugh and not because of him.  After all, the Ravens were a team completely STACKED with talent before Flacco and Harbaugh arrived.  The only problem was that the Ravens lacked a serious quarterback.  Steve McNair became a Ravens in 2006 and suddenly the Ravens fought to a 13-3 record and a first round by in the playoffs.  
     It's not as though Steve McNair was some incredibly productive quarterback.  The veteran passed for just over 3000 yards in 2006, but that was enough to win games given the sheer amount of talent surrounding him.  Baltimore was a team that simply needed a competent quarterback as the missing piece to their puzzle, and when Flacco arrived, the Ravens got exactly that.  Since then, the Ravens have often been held back by the decisions and friends Harbaugh brought to the organization including Greg Mattison, Cam Cameron, and most recently Juan Castillo.  
     Now the Ravens have no Ray Lewis and no Ed Reed.  Their senior leadership in the locker room is gone with seemingly no one left to pick up the baton and run with it.  If Harbaugh's team can turn things around in 2014, then I will redact my criticism of him and chalk 2013 up to a post-Super Bowl hangover.  If Harbaugh can hire the correct offensive coordinator and successfully compell better results from Juan Castillo, then he's truly a great coach, but for now I am left scratching my head at his cronyism and hunger for absolute power on this team at the expense of strong leadership from the players.

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!! (GO GET A REAL OC!) 
    

NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND PREDICTIONS: SUNDAY GAMES

     Ok, I'm back on track with two successful playoff predictions to take my record to a still-embarrassing 3-3 this post-season.  It's too bad everyone and their mother picked the Patriots and Seahawks to win their respective games on Saturday, so there's simply not much to brag about.  I can tell you, however, that getting predictions correct sure beats the alternative. 
     The Patriots showed once again that they're a team with a complete offense that can run the ball just as well as it can pass.  That might just come in handy at the AFC Championship next week.  Andrew Luck showed us that he is strikingly similar to his Colts predecessor with a healthy dosage of passing yards and a pair of touchdowns--but also another handful of interceptions and an inability to win playoff games in harsh, cold environments.  Luck is unquestionably talented, but his team simply wasn't build to go on the road and win playoff games this season.  It's actually quite unfortunate for the Colts that they traded away a first round pick for Trent Richardson as he has proven himself a total bust after showing early explosion and promise as a rookie in Cleveland.
     The Seahawks did exactly what everyone thought they would do when they suffocated the Saints offense for the vast majority of their game in Seattle.  Drew Brees' elite regular season stats simply don't seem to mean much when they don't translate into serious post-season success.  The man is the only quarterback in the history of the NFL to throw for over 5,000 yards in 4 seasons, and 3 of those seasons were this year, last year, and the year before that!  As you can probably guess, I'm not sold on the idea of dome teams finding consistent success in the post season.  It's possible for them to go to a Super Bowl if they manage to secure homefield advantage through the playoffs, but that scenario isn't particularly common, and it's far more common for tough, outdoor teams to fare better in the post-season.  The Seahawks did lose Percy Harvin for next week because of a concussion, and that will likely prove a major factor as both of the Seahawks possible future opponents play defense far better than a Saints.  The Saints defense, in fact, actually held its own against Seattle's offense...well at least much better than I think many people anticipated.  Seattle will have to put up a far more impressive offensive performance if it hopes to beat either of the other two top defenses in the league next weekend.  Speaking of the other top defenses, let's get to tomorrow's predictions!

SUNDAY NFL PREDICTIONS

49ERS AT PANTHERS

     If I can predict this game correctly, I'll feel that I've finally gotten back on the right track with my prediction analysis process.  The Panthers played the 49ers in San Francisco in Week 10 of the regular season and won an incredibly tight game 10-9.  It's always difficult to win on the road in the NFL, but to travel to the opposite coast and do so in Candlestick Park is an unquestionably impressive feat.  Logic would dictate that if the Panthers beat the 49ers in San Francisco earlier this season, than Carolina should definitely once again handle the 49ers at home.  The problem is that, as I mentioned yesterday, the 49ers offense is a totally different animal with its #1 wide receiver back.       
     Yes, Anquan Boldin fans, Michael Crabtree is unquestionably the most talented receiver playing for the 49ers.  Crabtree is acrobatic with great hands and can actually separate from defensive backs.  Boldin took over a couple of games this season with sensational receiving performances, but he basically disappeared last week against a lackluster Green Bay secondary.  More importantly, Anquan Boldin only managed 23 receiving yards at home against the Panthers defense, and that was after the 49ers had a bye week to rest up and prepare for Carolina. 
     With the return of Michael Crabtree, the 49ers simply no longer require a great performance from Boldin to win games though he still has produced in the receiving department.  Boldin is still an excellent blocker to aid in San Fran's running game, and he can still go up and make catches in heavy coverage, especially if Crabtree and Vernon Davis draw heavy coverage and stretch the field.  The 49ers might just be the most complete team left in the NFC or even the NFL at this point, but they're so similar to the Seahawks and Panthers that picking the 49ers based on their perceived completeness could be unwise...especially since they once again must go on the road.
     The 49ers are arguably the NFL's hottest team as they've won their last 7 games.  The Panthers, however, have a legitimate claim to that very same title as they've won 11 out of their last 12 games.  Their only loss in the last 12 games came against the Saints in New Orleans.  The Panthers then proceeded to beat the Saints in Carolina and put to rest any doubts that the Panthers are the better of those two teams.  Suffocating defense is the reason for much of the Panthers' success this season.  The Panthers defense allowed exactly 12 points per game at home this season.  That 12 point average is less than half of the 25.875 points that the Panthers offense scored at home this season, and that could make things frustratingly difficult for the 49ers. 
     The 49ers have been on quite a tear as of late with their 7 game winning streak.  Michael Crabtree has only played in 6 of the last 7 games, so we'll only use stats games during that period.  The 49ers have scored an average of 22.5 points per game since Crabtree's return, and some of those games have been against teams with defenses of similar strength to that of the Panthers.  In the last 6 games, the 49ers played the Seahawks in San Francisco and the Cardinals in Phoenix.  San Francisco only managed to score an average of 21 points per game, but their strong defense allowed them to win anyway.  But will the 49ers be able to put up enough points on the road against a team that held them to 9 points at home earlier this season?
     One thing I noticed after looking over Michael Crabtee's game log for the 6 games he's played in this season was the sharp drop off in his receiving production when he's facing top 10 ranked pass defenses.  I know this flies in the face of what I previously wrote about Crabtree being the 49ers' most talented receiver (I still believe that to be true) but his only truly dominant games came against the 21st and 24th ranked pass defenses in the NFL.  Sure he looked great against the Packers, but what made that feat impressive was the environment in which he played that game, not the players he faced.  Maybe it's Crabtree's presence that opens up things for Boldin and not the other way around, but I don't expect Michael Crabtree to put up big receiving numbers against the Panthers on Sunday. 
     The 49ers will likely be without Carlos Rodgers for a second straight week, but they should still have a strong secondary.  I'm willing to bet Steve Smith will play for the Panthers after hurting his knee two weeks ago against the Saints.  The 49ers simply had more players listed on their injury report and less time to recover before this game.  I don't see any concrete evidence to suggest that the 49ers can't pull off a win in Carolina, but the fact that the Panthers handled the 49ers offense so well earlier this season and the fact that Michael Crabtree mostly disappears against top defenses makes me think that the well rested home team with a great defense and running game will win this game.  The 49ers are quite similar to the Panthers in a variety of ways, but the Panthers are simply better at home than the 49ers are on the road.  The 49ers looked great last week, but they were playing against a poor Green Bay defense and still only managed to put up 23 points.  The 49ers could once again make me look like a fool for better against them, but everything I've evaluated here tells me that Cam Newton and company will once again top the 49ers.  This one, like the last meeting between these two teams, should be painfully close.

FINAL PREDICTION: PANTHERS 24-21.


CHARGERS AT BRONCOS 

     This could be one of the most difficult games to predict this season because it features a matchup between divisional rivals that split their games this season.  The problem is that the Broncos beat the Chargers in San Diego and the Chargers beat the Broncos in Denver.  Sure, Peyton Manning didn't have Wes Welker last time the Chargers traveled to Mile High Stadium, but even though Welker has returned, Von Miller's season is over because of a knee injury.  I could rattle off statistics about how many points the Broncos have put up at home this season versus how the Chargers have fared on the road, but most of the Broncos' home games aren't relevant because they featured comparatively high game temperatures to those of the last month.
     It's true that Peyton Manning has never won a playoff game in temperatures below 40 degrees, but tomorrow's game will be far from the coldest in which he's played.  Denver's forecast is for a high of 42 degrees and a low of 30 degrees.  It should be roughly 37 degrees at the beginning of the game, and that's much warmer than the temperatures in Denver over the last couple of weeks.  It may be that Manning is finally over-prepared for the weather of a cold playoff game.
     The Chargers certainly don't shy away from road games in inclement weather.  Philip Rivers performed well against the Broncos defense one month ago despite bitter cold temperatures.  The Chargers then went on to hand the Bengals their only home loss of the season last week despite miserable cold rain.  Part of the Chargers' ability to beat the Bengals was their insistence on sticking with the running game to set up the pass.  The Broncos have also run the ball well this season, and that has helped them to take pressure off of Peyton Manning when his offensive line has failed to give him enough time to consistently drop back to pass.
     The Chargers were successful in putting a lot of pressure on Peyton Manning and forcing him to make poor throws in their last meeting in Denver.  I believe their success came in large part from the absence of Wes Welker.  With Wes Welker in the game, Manning has of one the best short route running receivers in the game to whom he can find and target quickly.  That ability to release the ball quickly and connect with Welker is what helps to take pressure off of Manning.  Without that short and intermediate threat, the Chargers were able to take away a strong dimension of the Broncos offense.
     The Broncos are rested, they're loaded on offense, and they're at home.  It's not a warm weather game, but it's also not going to be rainy or particularly cold for Denver in January.  Oh! I almost forgot to mention that Ryan Matthews is questionable and won't be 100% if he does end up playing as he's suffering from a sprained ankle from last week's game.  Matthews' absence or lack of good health will likely take away a big dimension to the Chargers' rushing attack and, thus, their offense.  Danny Woodhead is good, but he's a complimentary back and not capable of carrying this team's running game himself.  Peyton will have his first cold playoff win of his career.

FINAL PREDICTION: BRONCOS 28-23

WHETHER OR NOT MY SUNDAY PREDICTIONS ARE CORRECT, LET'S HOPE FOR SOME HEART-STOPPING GRIDIRON ACTION THIS SUNDAY!

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!....PLEASE GET BACK TO THE PLAYOFFS SO THIS CLOSING MAKES MORE SENSE!

NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND PREDICTIONS: SATURDAY GAMES

  ROUGH START TO THE PLAYOFFS
 

     There's no question I was humbled with a 1-3 start to my playoff predictions.  I must admit that I simply didn't put in the sheer amount of time that I had in years past as my current job and work schedule leave me with far less opportunity to spend 16 hours a week researching and writing.  With that said, I'm also reminded that no one can be perfect or even nearly perfect in their football predictions all the time, but there definitely some points that, had I put more thought and time into my research and analysis, I possibly would have realized and taken into account.
     The first major point I should have taken into consideration (and this is something of which I was well aware) was that the Bengals, as an organization, have not won a playoff game in 23 seasons.  It doesn't matter how good they've been at home, and it doesn't matter that they beat the Ravens the week before because the Bengals have simply failed to win playoff games for about as long as I've been watching football on television.  I know that a team's historical record shouldn't have much bearing on current predictions since the vast majority of Bengals players from the last 23 seasons are no longer on the team.  With that said, a more relevant statistic is the fact that the Bengals have the second longer tenured head coach in the NFL behind Bill Belichick in Marvin Lewis.  One way or another, Lewis has never been able to prepare a team adequately to win a playoff game during his time as an NFL head coach.  The Bengals, most recently have been to the playoffs for the past 3 seasons in a row and have won the AFC North division twice in the last 5 seasons and STILL somehow haven't managed to win a single post-season game.
     The second point I should have taken into account was the fact that Andy Dalton threw 4 interceptions the week before at home against the Ravens.  Dalton played poorly in that game and the only thing that kept his team from losing was the fact that the Ravens offense was playing far more poorly.  It should have, thus, come as no surprise to me that Dalton would produce another handful of turnovers against the Chargers.  I assumed that the Chargers simply weren't particularly good as they only squeaked into the playoffs because some late game blunders by the referees in their game against the Chiefs' second string players.  I figured that if the Chargers weren't good enough to convincingly beat a team of backups at home, then there would be no way they'd upset a team that went unbeaten at home during the regular season.  It's possible the Chargers simply looked past the Chiefs knowing that Kansas City would be sitting most of its starters.  One thing is for sure: the Chargers most certainly did NOT look past the Bengals.  The Chargers exposed the Bengals defense for what it truly was at this point in the football season...depleted.
     The third thing I should have taken into account doesn't pertain to the Bengals game, but it does pertain to yet another game I misjudged.  The Eagles were favorites at home to beat the Saints as the Saints have never won playoff game on the road in the history of their franchise.  Had I simply taken a more thorough glance at various offensive and defensive units of both the Eagles and Saints, I would have picked the Saints without question.  I'm embarrassed that I missed this, but the Eagles had the worst ranked pass defense in the league and the Saints had the second ranked pass defense in the league.  As great as the Eagles' rushing was this season, it wasn't strong enough to operate without the serious threat of the pass.  Nick Foles is a more talented young quarterback than most people give him credit, but Foles has to put up a lot of yardage and a lot of points in order to beat good teams, and there was no way Nick Foles was going to light up the second ranked pass defense in the league.  It was certainly a close game, but in the end, the Eagles defense wasn't good enough to stop an elite quarterback.  Oh! And had I looked but a little bit closer I would have learned that the Eagles' home record this season (4-4) was only barely better than the Saints' road record (3-5).  The Saints aren't a great road playoff team, but they can definitely beat a team with the worst pass defense in the league regardless of the setting.
     The fourth thing I should have taken into consideration became abundantly clear in the 49ers and Packers game.  The 49ers have Michael Crabtree back healthy and that made all the difference in the world against a lackluster Packers secondary.  It didn't matter that Boldin didn't have a big day because Crabtree was in rare form.  I should have totally disregarded the 49ers' 30th ranked passing yards per game average because Crabtree wasn't on the field for most of the season.  That statistic should have been thrown out by my old standards.  I also should have taken into consideration that the 49ers are simply a more complete team than the Packers with stout defense and solid running game.  The game came right down to the wire, but the 49ers were able to keep the Packers out of the endzone on Green Bay's final drive, and Green Bay wasn't able to halt the 49ers' final drive to set up the game winning score.  The new pass-friendly rules have clearly not changed the time-tested adage that to win in harsh playoff environments a team needs to be able to run the ball and play stout defense.
     Hats off to the Chargers, 49ers, and Saints for reminding me that the real reason I had so much success predicting playoff games in the past two seasons was the extra time I spent evaluating every little detail.  I took in-depth looks at injury reports, thoroughly examined matchups, and spent hours looking at statistics.  I can't promise I'll get every prediction right, but I'll do my best to stick to the methods that made my last two post-seasons of predictions so successful.  Now, enough of last week, it's time to get to Saturday's games!

SATURDAY NFL PREDICTIONS

 SAINTS AT SEAHAWKS

     I feel a tad more confident predicting this game as the Seahawks absolutely pummeled the Saints the last time these teams met in Seattle...but somehow that makes me uneasy.  To make sure that my confidence in Seattle is justified, let's take a look at some statistics, shall we?
     The Seahawks haven't exactly been red-hot recently.  Since their bye week, the Seattle has alternated wins and losses.   To understand the Seahawks current state, we must examine their two losses over the last 5 games.  The first of these losses came on the road against their biggest rival, the 49ers.  This loss may have surprised some, but it didn't surprise many as the 49ers have beaten the Seahawks in close games in San Francisco in recent years even though the Seahawks absolutely obliterated the 49ers in Seattle.  In this particular game, both the 49ers and Seahawks had similar passing numbers.  Kaepernick and Wilson both threw for under 200 passing yards with one touchdown, one interception, and two sacks.  The 49ers, however, rushed for nearly double the yards (163) that the Seahawks produced on the ground (86) and that was the difference maker in what proved to be yet another tightly contested game in San Francisco.
    The next game the Seahawks lost was at home against the Arizona Cardinals.  The Cardinals shocked the world with their 17-10 victory in Seattle as the Seahawks had gone otherwise unbeaten at home this season with what was thought to be the biggest homefield advantage in the NFL.  Seattle still probably DOES have the biggest homefield advantage in the NFL, but they happened to run into the team with the first ranked run defense in the league.  It didn't matter that Carson Palmer threw 4 interceptions because the Cardinals held the Seahawks to only two scoring drives in the entire game.  The Cardinals also dramatically won the time of possession battle as they controlled the ball for over 37 minutes as compared to 22 minutes for the Seahawks.
     Maybe the Seahawks simply had a poor undisciplined day against the Cardinals with 9 penalties for a total of 102 yards, but one thing is for certain: the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS ARE NOTHING LIKE THE 49ERS AND CARDINALS.  The Saints don't typically excel at stopping the run, and that's one thing a team must do if it hopes to beat the Hawks in Seattle.  The Saints have the 2 ranked pass offense in the league with an average of 307.4 passing yards per game, but the Seahawks have the #1 pass defense in the league and only allow 172 passing yards per game.   It's not as though Brees hasn't thrown for big chunks of yardage on the road either as he has put up some big numbers away from New Orleans.  The issue is that Brees threw 9 of the total interceptions from this season in road games, and struggled against teams with impressive defensive lines including the Rams, Panthers, Jets, and most importantly, the Seahawks!
     Drew Brees didn't throw any interceptions when his team last played the Seahawks, but he didn't need to in order to lose that game.  The Seahawks defensive backs absolutely blanketed the Saints receivers with coverage, and Brees threw for an uncharacteristic 144 passing yards.  The Saints already don't do particularly well on the road, but the do ESPECIALLY poorly against elite pass defenses on the road, and there's no better pass defense than that of the Seahawks.
    The bottom line is that the Seahawks are great at stopping the only thing that makes the Saints offense special: the pass.  The Saints have the 25th ranked running game in the league, and as we learned before, a team has to be able to run the ball if it hopes to beat the Seahawks.  Some might say the Saints will have more success against the Seahawks after having played them and gotten a chance to re-evaluate their game plan going into Seattle, but I simply don't believe the Saints have the defense to stop the Seahawks' running game nor strong enough rushing attack to keep the Seahawks' defense on its toes.  No NFL game is a lock, but the outcome of this game appears quite clear.

FINAL PREDICTION: SEAHAWKS 27-17


 COLTS AT PATRIOTS

     The Patriots are not unbeatable.  They have endured major blows to their roster this season including the recent losses of Brandon Spikes and Rob Gronkowski as well as the earlier losses of Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo.  The Patriots, however, remain an elite team because of their incredible coaching staff.  The question that remains is whether or not the Colts are a strong enough road team to take down Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in Foxboro after the Patriots have had a bye week to rest and prepare for a dome team with a second year quarterback.  For the time being, forget your preconceived notions about which of these teams is better, and let's examine statistics to get a truly accurate idea of the probable outcome of this game.
      The first thing that I notice as I look at the Colts' record over the course of this season is the fact that they rose to the occasion against some of the best teams in the NFL including the Broncos, 49ers, Seahawks, and Chiefs.  I also notice, however, that the Colts also lost to the Dolphins, Bengals, Chargers, Cardinals, and Rams.  Losing to the Bengals in Cincinnati wasn't a huge surprise given the Bengals record at home this season, but it may shed light on the type of team that tends to beat the Colts on the road OR at home.
      With the exception of the Miami Dolphins, every team beat the Colts this season had a great run defense.  Colts lost to teams with the 1st, 5th, 9th, and 12th ranked rush defenses.  It's not as though the Colts have a great rushing attack.  The Colts, in fact, ranked 21st in rushing yards during the regular season, but the recent emergence of Donald Brown has brought life to their ground game over the past month.  Brown hasn't had a ton of carries, but he has averaged an impressive 5.3 yards per carry on the season and 5 yards per carry last week against the Chiefs.  It's not surprising, therefore, that in the aforementioned 4 losses to teams with elite run defenses, Donald Brown was held to an average of 1.95 yards per carry.  It's clear to me that the loss of Reggie Wayne earlier this season has meant that the Colts have relied on at least the threat of the run to help open things up for their passing game without their most reliable receiving weapon.  The Colts defense, after all, isn't elite.  They a respectable 13th in pass defense, but near the bottom of the league in rush defense at #26.  
     More important than their overall defensive ranking is the Colts' level of defensive play on the road.  This game is, after all, going to played far away from the controlled temperature and Colt-friendly crowd of Lucas Oil Stadium.  The Colts played well in their last road game against the slumping Chiefs, but I'd rather not look at their performance against a slumping team in order to help predict how they'll do against the Patriots.  The Colts last road game against a winning team was against the Bengals in Cincinnati.  Andrew Luck actually had a great game, but his defense most certainly did not.  Despite Luck's 4 touchdown passes and 326 passing yards, the Bengals won because the Colts couldn't stop the Bengals ground attack that put up 155 yards and allowed the Bengals to dominate the time of possession battle.
     Unfortunately for the Colts, the Patriots also have an elite (9th ranked) running game to compliment their 10th ranked passing attack.  What the Patriots DON'T have is a great run defense.  The Patriots rank near last in the league at stopping the run, and they struggled two weeks ago to stop the Bills from running the football as the Bills put up 169 yards and and 393 total offensive yards.  The more amazing aspect to those stats is that Bills game was played in Foxboro.  The Patriots still managed to beat the Bills by two touchdowns, but the the vulnerability against the run remains apparent.  
    The Colts and Patriots aren't ultimately that different.  They both have great quarterbacks, but the Patriots' quarterback better.  They both have the ability to run the ball, but the Patriots run the ball better.  Both teams struggle to stop the run, but fare better against the pass.  The Patriots are unquestionably better at moving the ball on offense while the Colts are marginally better on defense.  Two things, however, give the Patriots a serious upper hand in this game.  The first is the fact that the Patriots have major homefield advantage against a dome team with a young quarterback with only a single home playoff win under his belt.  The second major advantage is that he Patriots are well rested despite their list of major offensive and defensive weapons that have gone down with injuries this season.  With the exception of one road loss to the Miami Dolphins, the Patriots have only lost to teams with strong defenses this season.  The Colts defense allowed 44 points AT HOME last week, I have a hard time believing that Andrew Luck will have nearly the same fortune of facing a team that could collapse offensively the same way the Chiefs did in the wild card round.  
     The Patriots are undefeated at home this weekend, they're well rested, and the only non-divisional opponents they've lost to this season have had elite defenses...and even those losses came right down to the wire (especially the controversial loss in North Carolina).  The Colts found some luck last week against a team that did everything it could to give the game away in the second half.  This is the point at which their luck runs out.  Aqip Talib will take away T.Y. Hilton and that will be enough to slow down the Colts' offense.  The Patriots will have little trouble putting together a balanced offensive attack against a porous Colts defense in Foxboro.

FINAL PREDICTION:  PATRIOTS 38-21.

     If all goes as I predicted, I shouldn't pat myself on the back to much as Sunday's games bring much bigger tests of my analytical and predictive abilities.  Regardless, I'll take any win I can get after going 1-3 last weekend.  This weekend is about redemption, and hopefully I'll gain that redemption using more thorough examination of each upcoming game.

      On a Ravens related note, I'd like to address some things that were stated in the State of the Ravens press conference earlier this week.  Yes, Ozzie isn't afraid to cut great players, and, yes, Terrell Suggs could ultimately end up not being a Raven next season if his contract situation isn't taken care of in the off-season.  I believe, however, that Suggs wants to follow in his mentor's footsteps and retire a Raven.  Age isn't catching up to Suggs at all.  This season actually isn't entirely uncharacteristic for him.  Suggs actually has had up and down years for the Ravens since he's been in the league, and a season in which you record 10 sacks is not a down season...even if his stats dropped off in the second half of the year.  I'm confident that Suggs will be amicable regarding a contract extension because an extension ultimately benefits both parties.  There's still the danger that Suggs could be insulted by the prospect of a pay cut for next season, but he also shouldn't be too surprised given the fact that he did unquestionably take a major dip in performance in the second half of the season after appearing to be a candidate for defensive player of the year in the first half.
    The Ravens most likely won't keep James Ihedigbo, Arthur Jones, Jacoby Jones, Ed Dickson, Dallas Clark, or Michael Oher.  The only one out of that group that I truly hope the Ravens retain is Jacoby Jones.  Jones is approaching 30 and has never put up elite receiving statistics, but he came in clutch for the Ravens once he recovered from his early season injury.  There's truly no better return man in the came than Jacoby Jones.  As my family members can tell you, there were numerous occasions this season where the Ravens were in tight games and I happened mutter "jeez, we could really use a huge return from Jacoby right now", and that's exactly what he gave us.  No, I don't have a crystal ball, but Jones is simply that much of a threat to go yard pretty much any time he returns a kick or punt.  That kind of explosive potential is something that the Ravens simply can't afford to lose right now.  If I were in charge of the Ravens off-season moves, I'd find a way to extend Jones' contract by a year in an effort to lower his cap number and create more space to help sign players such as Eugene Monroe, Daryl Smith, and Dennis Pitta.
     Ozzie Newsome's decision making isn't perfect, but it's still nearly the best in the league if not the best overall.  The Ravens already have 2 Super Bowls in 18 seasons and it says something about their standards that 8 wins and barely missing the playoffs is an incredible disappointment despite incredible roster changes and losses.  Juan Castillo did a poor job this season, but there's no way the Ravens are going to stand for him utilizing that same system again this season.  If somehow they do, Steve Bisciotti will fire him and hold John Harbaugh totally responsible.  With that said, let's see what happens with the offensive coordinator position and how the Ravens fare in the draft and the free agent market.  It's entirely possible that with better personnel and pressure to fix things, Juan Castillo may actually do a total 180 and turns things around for Flacco's protection and the Ravens running game.

LET'S HOPE FOR SOME PLAYOFF MAGIC TOMORROW
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS (GET SOME NEW LINEMAN AND A NEW WR!!!)