I must first apologize for not writing my Thursday night prediction. I, like most, expected a Falcons win, but I don't think anyone anticipated THAT kind of a blowout. This week presents an interesting challenge for the Ravens. The Browns are riding high off of a home win over the New Orleans Saints last weekend, and I'm sure that win left many Ravens fans uneasy about traveling to Cleveland on Sunday. It's not as though the Browns have recently dominated the Ravens. The Ravens and Browns split their games last season with each team winning at home. Baltimore has won 11 of the last 12 meetings between these two organizations, and games against the Browns have usually felt like relatively safe victories during the Harbaugh/Flacco era. After an 8-8 2013 season and a home opening loss to the Bengals, however, it has become abundantly clear that Ravens fans are still unsure of the true strength of this year's squad. What is also unclear is exactly how strong the Browns have become.
The Browns won the last meeting between these two teams, and they did so with a mediocre former Redskins quarterback. The Browns now operate with a better quarterback, Brian Hoyer, but they also will be without their #1 wide receiver, Josh Gordon. Despite Gordon's absence, there's no question that the Browns have become significantly more productive on offense. Through two weeks the Browns have scored an average 26.5 points per game. The Browns averaged just 19.5 points per game last season, so they've improved thus far by a touchdown per game.
A two game sample is not statistically significant in comparison with an entire previous season, but what's particularly impressive is how and when they've been able to score. In their first week, the Browns were down 27-3 at halftime against the Steelers, and then they battled thunderously back in the second half to tie the game up 27-27 before the Steelers finally ended the game with a last-second field goal. The Steelers defense is clearly not what it used to be, but being able to score 27 second half point on the road at the stadium of a divisional rival is an impressive feat for the Browns no matter the state of the Steelers D. The Browns also looked offensively impressive at home against the Saints in their 26-24 win. Cleveland put up 174 yards on the ground with 26 first downs, and there was almost no time when New Orleans could truly stop the Browns rushing or passing attack.
The good news for the Ravens is that they appear to have a far superior defense to those of the Saints and Steelers. Not only did the Ravens hold the Steelers to 6 points off of two field goals in their last game, but the Ravens also held the Bengals to a single touchdown in week 1 despite ultimately losing the game. The Ravens, in fact, have given up only one touchdown on the season, and they rank 5th in the NFL in points allowed. Even more impressive is the fact that they've done so without one of their best cornerbacks and the leader of their secondary, Lardarius Webb. Webb is slated to return this Sunday along with 3rd string corner, Asa Jackson, so the Ravens defense will get a significant boost in time for their first road game of the season. The Browns will also be without their first string running back, Ben Tate, which will put the ball in the hands of rookie Terrance West. West looked impressive last week, but the Ravens have already faced two far more impressive backs in Giovanni Bernard and Le'Veon Bell, and they held both playmakers out of the endzone entirely.
The Ravens defense should handle business quite well tomorrow, but it's the offense that needs to show it can perform on the road and against a Browns defense that features serious play-makers such as Joe Hayden and Paul Kruger. I expect a Ravens win tomorrow, but it's simply too early to know of what stuff this team is truly made. Ok, now let's get to the picks!
WEEK 3 NFL PICKS
CHARGERS AT BILLS- The Chargers should feel good about beating the Super Bowl champs last week...but not nearly as good as one might think. The Seahawks lost two of their starting D lineman, and their pass rush and vaunted secondary has clearly suffered as a result. The Bills are undefeated, and held a supposedly impressive Bears offensive attack to mere 20 points IN Chicago in Week 1. I don't think the Chargers are good enough to win in Buffalo on the road, but this should be a close game. BILLS 24-21
COWBOYS AT RAMS- The Cowboys appear to have gotten back on track after a shaky Week 1 loss to the 49ers. The Rams are bad at football. COWBOYS 27-14
REDSKINS AT EAGLES- The Redskins aren't a bad football team. They should actually contend for the divisional crown this season. I like the Redskins defense much better than the Eagles defense, but the Eagles D should get a boost at home. while the Redskins offense could struggle to keep up with an Eagles offense that appears to be able to score quickly and at will. EAGLES 31-28
TEXANS AT GIANTS- TEXANS 34-17
VIKINGS AT SAINTS- The Saints have looked disappointing thus far this season. I think they underestimated exactly what Darren Sproles did for their offense. Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham can't do it all...but the Vikings are simply worse. This will be the first Saints win of the season. SAINTS 38-13
TITANTS AT BENGALS- The Titans aren't terrible, but they're also not consistent. The Bengals offense has been incredibly impressive thus far, and there's little change the Titans are strong enough to slow it down. BENGALS 28-16
RAVENS AT BROWNS- With the return of Lardarius Webb and Asa Jackson, the Ravens should be strong enough defensively to hold the Browns to field goals and give the Ravens offense plenty of opportunities to get something started. The Ravens pass protection and short passing game are much stronger this season, and that along with a strong running game should help neutralize any pass rush the Browns can muster. This will simply be a matter of Ravens receivers catching the football and executing plays. Opposing teams can no longer look to simply take away Torrey Smith in order to stop this offense. Torrey, in fact, may have his breakout game of the season considering the fact that the Browns will be looking to stop Steve Smith. There are too many Ravens weapons to be accounted for, the Ravens just need to execute and not turn the ball over. RAVENS 26-16
PACKERS AT LIONS- These are two flawed teams that won't go anywhere serious this season. In this case, I have to give the edge to the team with the better defense and home field advantage. LIONS 35-30
COLTS AT JAGUARS- The Colts are the best team in the NFL without a win. The Jaguars just straight up suck. COLTS 42-21
RAIDERS AT PATRIOTS- I think Charles Woodson said it best about his new team: "We suck." The Patriots may not have fully hit their stride yet, but Towson could beat the Raiders. PATRIOTS 33-6
49ERS AT CARDINALS- This is probably the best game of the week. The Cardinals defense isn't as strong as it was last season, but neither is that of the 49ers. The Cardinals should be able to slow the 49ers' rushing attack, but Carson Palmer is not 100%. Despite their loss to the Bears last week, the 49ers should win this game and improve to 2-1. 49ERS 23-20
BRONCOS AT SEAHAWKS- The Broncos have an atrocious pass defense. Their offense also doesn't particularly impress me. The Seahawks also aren't that impressive and can clearly be attacked through the air as was made apparent by the Chargers last week. I don't care that this game is in Seattle. This game has been circled on Peyton Manning's calendar for the better part of a year. The Seahawks' pass rushing ability simply isn't what it once was without two of its starting defensive lineman from last season. Peyton Manning is difficult to pressure because of his quick release. If the Chargers can torch the Seahawks using a big tight end, the Broncos will do the same thing with Julian Thomas. Peyton Manning is the arguably the greatest regular season quarterback in NFL history. BRONCOS 28-21
CHIEFS AT DOLPHINS- The Dolphins will take care of business at home. DOLPHINS 27-17
STEELERS AT PANTHERS- If the LIONS couldn't move the ball against the Panthers, then the Steelers DEFINITELY won't be able to move the ball against the Panthers. PANTHERS 20-10
BEARS AT JETS- The Jets aren't a bad football team this season, but the Bears have too many weapons for the Jets' secondary to handle. If the Bears can take down the 49ers, they can take down the Jets. BEARS 30-19
Scandal has rocked the Ravens organization, and I can't say that I'm not disappointed. I will, however, be happy to forget about scandal for a day and simply enjoy NFL football.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS
Sunday, September 21, 2014
Sunday, September 14, 2014
NFL WEEK 2 PREDICTIONS
Beating the Steelers seemed almost too easy for the Ravens on Thursday night. It's not that there weren't times where I was frustrated seeing Le'Veon Bell break evade and break tackles, and it's not that the Ravens didn't struggle again to punch the ball in on the goal line. It's that even when the Ravens made minor mistakes the Steelers simply were too inept in too many respects to take advantage the way they would have once upon a time. I don't want to speak too soon, but it appears as though Ben Roethlisberger's skills are beginning to decline. We all watched Ben miss open receivers in totally uncharacteristic fashion. During the first few years of the Flacco/Harbaugha era, Roethlisberger would have easily made such throws, and he would have done so under even more pressure. The Steelers haven't had a winning season since Todd Haley became the offensive coordinator two seasons ago. I was actually almost looking forward to a hard-fought nail-biter. I'm always thrilled to watch the Ravens beat the Steelers in every phase of a game, but it just seems too easy at this point.
I'd like to think that the Ravens finally hit their stride since the second half of the Bengals game, but it's far too early in the season to truly know of what any team is truly capable. The Patriots, for example, looked totally inept last week in the second half of their first game, and the Saints lost to one of last season's worst teams despite being thought of by many as a top 4 super bowl contender. How teams begin the season isn't irrelevant, but it's also not vitally important. Truly great teams are able to adjust as the season progresses and learn how to tweak their schemes and plays to fit the personnel they have if their original plans prove unsuccessful within the first couple of weeks.
There's no reason to place great stock in predictions of games during the first month of the season as the amount of statistics recorded simply isn't significant enough to be accurately predictive in most cases. That fact, however, won't stop us from having fun and taking a shot at weekly picks. I'm glad my Thursday night pick was correct, and now Ravens fans get to kick back, relax, and enjoy watching the rest of teams beat each other senseless. The Ravens also get a nice extra long break to rest up, get healthy, and game plan to absolutely smash the Browns and remind them that they're still just the Browns. Let's take a look at the picks for Week 2!
WEEK 2 NFL PICKS
DOLPHINS AT BILLS- Both of these teams won surprise upsets last week, and had similar statistical performances as far asIf yardage was concerned. The Bills and Dolphins rank 3rd and 4th respectively in rushing yards, and rank 10th and 11th respectively in rushing yards allowed. The Bills have the 29th ranked pass offense, and the Dolphins have the 28th ranked pass offense. The only major discrepancy is that the Dolphins rank 15th in pass defense, and the Bills rank just 28th in the same category. The Dolphins won big at home against the Patriots by nearly two touchdowns, but the Bills narrowly won in overtime on the road against the Bears. When two teams are so statistically close, I tend to go with the home team. Ryan Tannehill also has had nearly no success in Buffalo. I'm hoping the Fins will once again prove me wrong here. BUFFALO 20-17
JAGUARS AT REDSKINS- Is it possible for two teams to lose a game? If it is, I feel as though the Jags and Skins will have found a way by now. It's difficult to know which one of these teams is truly worse, but I feel as though the Skins D will shut down anything the Jags will try to get going. Jacksonville doesn't have good enough defense to win this game. REDSKINS 24-10
COWBOYS AT TITANS- There are simply too many things wrong with the Cowboys. TITANS 31-14
CARDINALS AT GIANTS- I actually saw an analyst or two pick the Giants to win this game. That begs the question of what particular strain of hydroponics they were bonging prior to writing their picks. CARDINALS 21-10
PATRIOTS AT VIKINGS- No AP, no beating the Patriots after an embarrassing loss. PATRIOTS 28-16
SAINTS AT BROWNS- The Browns managed a furious comeback last week against the Steelers that ultimately fell short. Newsflash, Cleveland:THE STEELERS WERE EXPOSED AS BEING ABSOLUTELY TERRIBLE, SO WHAT DOES THAT MAKE YOU? Ok, so I fully expect Drew Brees to get into the swing of things this weekend, and the Browns couldn't even hope to keep up. SAINTS 42-19
FALCONS AT BENGALS- The Ravens gave the Falcons some good video on how to stop the Bengals offense in the second half of last week's game. I've never been blown away by Matt Ryan with his poor playoff record, but he is typically master of the regular season. This should be the game of the day for Ravens fans. FALCONS 28-24
LIONS AT PANTHERS- I love to watch Luke Kuechly, and the Panthers defense is impressive, but the Panthers don't have enough offense to keep up with Stafford and Megatron. LIONS 31-23
RAMS AT BUCCANEERS- The Rams are bad at football. BUCCANEERS 21-10
SEAHAWKS AT CHARGERS- Yes, the Seahawks looked dominant last week against a broken Packers team. No, that doesn't mean as much away from Seattle, but the Seahawks still match up quite well against the Chargers. I hope Philip Rivers shakes things up and takes the Seahawks down a peg or two in San Diego, but I don't expect them to do so. SEATTLE 33-24
TEXANS AT RAIDERS- Beating the Redskins is nothing tremendous about which any team should brag, but holding any NFL team to 6 points is a big deal. The Raiders are basically useless. TEXANS 17-10
JETS AT PACKERS- The Packers may or may not have Eddie Lacy, but they certainly still have Aaron Rodgers. The Jets currently own the first ranked defense in the league by yardage, but they still allowed the Raiders to score 14 points. Rodgers is going to get the offense going this week at home in Green Bay. The Jets will keep this one close by pounding the rock, but the Packers will be able to score quickly regardless. PACKERS 21-20
CHIEFS AT BRONCOS- The Chiefs couldn't beat the Titans IN Kansas City. There's NOOO way they beat the Broncos IN Denver. The Broncos will start slow, but expect Manning to pick apart the Chiefs defense in the second half. BRONCOS 30-21
BEARS AT 49ERS- I think a lot of people were giving the Bears FAAAR too much credit before the season began. Jay Cutler is not elite, and the Bears run defense isn't strong enough to stop the 49ers' rushing attack. 49ERS 27-23
EAGLES AT COLTS- I like what I saw from both of these teams in the second half of last week's games, but the Colts will take charge in their own house. Who needs defense when you have oodles of offense? COLTS 38-35
I hope I'm wrong about a handful of these games. Regular season football is incredibly boring if it's predictable this early in the season. Oh, and in case anyone already forgot, the Ravens beat the Steelers right out of M and T back and right back on to their loser buses. I wonder if they've realized that the Terrible Towel now truly matches their terrible team...OK OK enough fun at Pittsburgh's expense for now.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
I'd like to think that the Ravens finally hit their stride since the second half of the Bengals game, but it's far too early in the season to truly know of what any team is truly capable. The Patriots, for example, looked totally inept last week in the second half of their first game, and the Saints lost to one of last season's worst teams despite being thought of by many as a top 4 super bowl contender. How teams begin the season isn't irrelevant, but it's also not vitally important. Truly great teams are able to adjust as the season progresses and learn how to tweak their schemes and plays to fit the personnel they have if their original plans prove unsuccessful within the first couple of weeks.
There's no reason to place great stock in predictions of games during the first month of the season as the amount of statistics recorded simply isn't significant enough to be accurately predictive in most cases. That fact, however, won't stop us from having fun and taking a shot at weekly picks. I'm glad my Thursday night pick was correct, and now Ravens fans get to kick back, relax, and enjoy watching the rest of teams beat each other senseless. The Ravens also get a nice extra long break to rest up, get healthy, and game plan to absolutely smash the Browns and remind them that they're still just the Browns. Let's take a look at the picks for Week 2!
WEEK 2 NFL PICKS
DOLPHINS AT BILLS- Both of these teams won surprise upsets last week, and had similar statistical performances as far asIf yardage was concerned. The Bills and Dolphins rank 3rd and 4th respectively in rushing yards, and rank 10th and 11th respectively in rushing yards allowed. The Bills have the 29th ranked pass offense, and the Dolphins have the 28th ranked pass offense. The only major discrepancy is that the Dolphins rank 15th in pass defense, and the Bills rank just 28th in the same category. The Dolphins won big at home against the Patriots by nearly two touchdowns, but the Bills narrowly won in overtime on the road against the Bears. When two teams are so statistically close, I tend to go with the home team. Ryan Tannehill also has had nearly no success in Buffalo. I'm hoping the Fins will once again prove me wrong here. BUFFALO 20-17
JAGUARS AT REDSKINS- Is it possible for two teams to lose a game? If it is, I feel as though the Jags and Skins will have found a way by now. It's difficult to know which one of these teams is truly worse, but I feel as though the Skins D will shut down anything the Jags will try to get going. Jacksonville doesn't have good enough defense to win this game. REDSKINS 24-10
COWBOYS AT TITANS- There are simply too many things wrong with the Cowboys. TITANS 31-14
CARDINALS AT GIANTS- I actually saw an analyst or two pick the Giants to win this game. That begs the question of what particular strain of hydroponics they were bonging prior to writing their picks. CARDINALS 21-10
PATRIOTS AT VIKINGS- No AP, no beating the Patriots after an embarrassing loss. PATRIOTS 28-16
SAINTS AT BROWNS- The Browns managed a furious comeback last week against the Steelers that ultimately fell short. Newsflash, Cleveland:THE STEELERS WERE EXPOSED AS BEING ABSOLUTELY TERRIBLE, SO WHAT DOES THAT MAKE YOU? Ok, so I fully expect Drew Brees to get into the swing of things this weekend, and the Browns couldn't even hope to keep up. SAINTS 42-19
FALCONS AT BENGALS- The Ravens gave the Falcons some good video on how to stop the Bengals offense in the second half of last week's game. I've never been blown away by Matt Ryan with his poor playoff record, but he is typically master of the regular season. This should be the game of the day for Ravens fans. FALCONS 28-24
LIONS AT PANTHERS- I love to watch Luke Kuechly, and the Panthers defense is impressive, but the Panthers don't have enough offense to keep up with Stafford and Megatron. LIONS 31-23
RAMS AT BUCCANEERS- The Rams are bad at football. BUCCANEERS 21-10
SEAHAWKS AT CHARGERS- Yes, the Seahawks looked dominant last week against a broken Packers team. No, that doesn't mean as much away from Seattle, but the Seahawks still match up quite well against the Chargers. I hope Philip Rivers shakes things up and takes the Seahawks down a peg or two in San Diego, but I don't expect them to do so. SEATTLE 33-24
TEXANS AT RAIDERS- Beating the Redskins is nothing tremendous about which any team should brag, but holding any NFL team to 6 points is a big deal. The Raiders are basically useless. TEXANS 17-10
JETS AT PACKERS- The Packers may or may not have Eddie Lacy, but they certainly still have Aaron Rodgers. The Jets currently own the first ranked defense in the league by yardage, but they still allowed the Raiders to score 14 points. Rodgers is going to get the offense going this week at home in Green Bay. The Jets will keep this one close by pounding the rock, but the Packers will be able to score quickly regardless. PACKERS 21-20
CHIEFS AT BRONCOS- The Chiefs couldn't beat the Titans IN Kansas City. There's NOOO way they beat the Broncos IN Denver. The Broncos will start slow, but expect Manning to pick apart the Chiefs defense in the second half. BRONCOS 30-21
BEARS AT 49ERS- I think a lot of people were giving the Bears FAAAR too much credit before the season began. Jay Cutler is not elite, and the Bears run defense isn't strong enough to stop the 49ers' rushing attack. 49ERS 27-23
EAGLES AT COLTS- I like what I saw from both of these teams in the second half of last week's games, but the Colts will take charge in their own house. Who needs defense when you have oodles of offense? COLTS 38-35
I hope I'm wrong about a handful of these games. Regular season football is incredibly boring if it's predictable this early in the season. Oh, and in case anyone already forgot, the Ravens beat the Steelers right out of M and T back and right back on to their loser buses. I wonder if they've realized that the Terrible Towel now truly matches their terrible team...OK OK enough fun at Pittsburgh's expense for now.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Thursday, September 11, 2014
RAVENS RECAP AND THURSDAY NIGHT PREDICTION
I'd like to think that the Ravens can take away some positive points from Sunday's disappointing and confusing season opening loss to the Bengals. A loss is always miserable in a season that consists of only 16 regular season games, but I was happy to see that it appears as though certain major flaws from 2013's team corrected in the second half against Cincinnati. Other major flaws once again reared their ugly heads, but this is no time to panic. It's possible that last season desensitized me to frustratingly slow offensive starts and heartbreaking late-game defensive collapses, and it's also possible that I expect (maybe unreasonably so at this point) the Ravens organization to make the necessary corrections to get back on a playoff-bound track. The fact is that there ARE major improvements to the Ravens offense even if they took half of a football game to present themselves. The scoring pattern may have followed last year's trend, but not for last season's reasons. The defense struggled for much of the game as well, but there are still reasons to believe that minor tweaks and adjustments along with better and more consistent offensive production can help to bring that unit back to dominance.
I doubt there has been a game in over a decade where Steve Smith has dropped 4 passes. One pass was jarred lose from his hands with a solid hit, but there was another that hit him square in the hands in front of his chest and he simply couldn't catch it. Smith more than made up for those drops with a fantastic 80 yard catch and run highlighted by Smith slinging Adam "Pacman" Jones violently to the ground en route to the endzone. Yards after the catch and after contact are Steve Smith's forte. Despite his diminutive height and weight, Smith possesses a startling level of strength and an impressive ability to use his opponents' size, weight, and momentum against them. Smith's four drops on Sunday were presumably an aberration and not indication of some sort of drop-off in catching ability.
Both Jacoby Jones and Torrey Smith also had notable drops in the first half of the game, but they've both been known to drop an occasional pass despite explosive athleticism and blinding speed. Torrey Smith's major drop was on a deep pass down the right sideline as he ran a go-route. Torrey had been interfered seconds before the ball hit his fingertips, but no penalty was thrown. Jacoby Jones' drop was far less forgivable. Jones was wide open in the middle of the field and allowed a pass to sail between his hands and fall uselessly to the turf. This was bad news for the Ravens and Jacoby, but it's good news going forward for another reason. The pass Jacoby Jones failed to catch was beautifully placed despite being thrown on the run and off of Flacco's back foot. In years past Flacco likely would have underthrown such a pass off of his back foot, but this time he showed serious precision and touch on an extremely difficult pass.
Dropped passes were the theme of the first half of the game against the Bengals, but the second half revealed something that Ravens fans had pondered and dreamed about since the hiring of Gary Kubiak in the off-season. The Ravens suddenly ran roughshod over the Bengals offensively, and Flacco spread the ball out to a number of different weapons including Dennis Pitta, Owen Daniels, Torrey Smith, Steve Smith, and Jacoby Jones. The success of the passing game opened up opportunities for Justin Forsett in the running game with 70 yards and a touchdown on only 11 carries. Suddenly the offense that couldn't move the ball 100 yards in the first half was knifing through a highly ranked Bengals defense in the second half to even take a one point lead late in the 4th quarter. Gary Kubiak's system clearly puts offensive weapons in a position to get open and make plays--it was simply a matter of execution.
Joe Flacco threw for a total of 345 yards against a typically impressive Bengals defense, and that had a lot to do with his protection. Flacco's line did give up two late sacks on the final drive of the game, but he was able to avoid serious pressure from a formidable Bengals pass rush for almost the entire 60 minutes as the offensive line held up quite well and Kubiak's system allowed Flacco to smoothly evade pressure by easily rolling out of the pocket.
Not everything went well in the second half. The Ravens held the Bengals scoreless until the last 5 minutes of the game when A.J. Green caught a deep pass from Andy Dalton and took it a total of 77 yards for a touchdown. What was mind-boggling and infuriating to even slightly observant fans was the fact that Chykie Brown had been left to cover A.J. Green. The Ravens have a top tier corner in Jimmy Smith, and Smith possesses the height, speed, and ball skills to cover and potentially shut down even a receiver as talented and athletic as Green. With the Bengals #2 wide receiver, Marvin Jones, out and their best tight end sidelined with a dislocated elbow, why was it that Chykie Brown wasn't asked to cover backup wide receiver, Mohammed Sanu so late in the game? The bad thing is that such a mistake shows a lack of judgement on the part of the Ravens defensive coordinator. The good thing, however, is that Lardarius Webb SHOULD be back to play against Pittsburgh tonight and no longer will the Ravens have to use backups to cover top talent. Chykie Brown can stay with almost any wide receiver in coverage, but he has never been able to truly master the technique of making plays on the ball instead of simply running with the receiver...but no matter because Webby knows EXACTLY how to knock down a pass.
Beyond issues of one on one deep pass coverage, the Ravens showed vulnerability when it came to the short passing game. Baltimore gave up major chunks of yardage to quick, precise screen passes, and those screen passes easily opened the Bengals up for inside runs. The Ravens' only saving grace was buckling down in the redzone, but allowing long drives still serves to wear down a defense so that it gives up big plays late in the game such as the touchdown pass to A.J. Green. The offense certainly didn't help matters by not finishing drives and keeping the defense off the field, but the defense simply couldn't halt drives and force nearly enough punts in the first half of the game. I'd like to think that these issues were corrected in the second half and that they were mostly schematic problems rather than major personnel deficiencies, but the Ravens were facing a Bengals team playing without a full offensive staff.
Tonight's game against Pittsburgh should give us a much better idea of how well this coaching staff adjusts defensively. The Steelers will likely run a good amount of no-huddle offense much like that which the Bengals ran against the Ravens last weekend. I fully expect the Ravens offense to have earlier and more frequent success against a clearly flawed Steelers offense, but the Steelers almost always defend the Ravens well regardless of how they perform against other teams. The big question will be whether or not the Ravens defense can stop the Steelers early and often enough to give the Ravens offense enough opportunities for scoring drives and to eat up time off the clock. Most of the national media is calling for a Steelers win. Why shouldn't they? The Steelers won in Week 1 and the Ravens lost, right? Well that might be a valid point expect that the Steelers only won by a late field goal against a Browns team that once trailed by a whopping 24 points in the first half. The Ravens lost, but at least they did so to last season's division leader.
A major key to tonight's game is the return of Lardarius Webb. If Webb does, in fact, return, how well will he play? The Steelers will undoubtedly pick on him, but given his talent an experience level, that could be quite a bad idea. Another major question mark is the play of Bernard Pierce. Pierce did not run impressively against the Bengals and found himself on the sidelines after a fumble on what could have been a 20 yards run had he simply ran slightly to his left rather than pushing right back into heavy traffic. The hands of the Ravens wide receivers will clearly be a major key to this and any game they play, but I'm confident they'll do a better job than last Sunday. After all, Flacco led the league with 110 lost yards to dropped passes. Even if he had half of that number, he'd have thrown for an even 400 yards and likely been able to score one or two more times.
This is the night where we see what this defense with a host of new defensive pieces is able to do to an offense that features an elite quarterback and an explosive young running back in Le'Veon Bell. If the Ravens can limit Bell and get pressure on Big Ben, this could be a dominant win. I, however, don't expect a dominant win. I expect a low margin of victory Ravens-Steelers slobber-knocker with victory going to the team that scores last. I firmly believe that team will be the Ravens, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the Steelers come out on top either.
THUSDAY NIGHT PREDICTION
STEELERS AT RAVENS- The Ravens have not gone 0-2 to start a season since 2005, and they're not going to break that trend tonight. Flacco looks on point in this new offensive system even if he did mismanage the clock at the end of the first half in that boneheaded play. The Steelers defense gave up 27 second half points to Browns team without Josh Gordon, but the Ravens have a full array of weapons and an offensive line that protects Joe Flacco well. The Ravens defense is still strong enough in the redzone to limit touchdowns, but the Steelers defense appeared way too slow and old last weekend. The Steelers corners and safeties simply aren't good enough to shut down Torrey Smith, Steve Smith, Jacoby Jones, Dennis Pitta, and Owen Daniels. RAVENS 31-26.
If the Ravens lose this game, it's not the end of the world, but it means there are serious issues in Baltimore that need to be addressed. The Steelers simply aren't that good, and a loss tonight means the Ravens will have their hands full with the likes of the Saints, Dolphins, Chargers, and Texans...oh and the Bengals again. Don't panic yet, Ravens fans. It's RAVENS-STEELERS NIGHT IN BALTIMORE!!!!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
I doubt there has been a game in over a decade where Steve Smith has dropped 4 passes. One pass was jarred lose from his hands with a solid hit, but there was another that hit him square in the hands in front of his chest and he simply couldn't catch it. Smith more than made up for those drops with a fantastic 80 yard catch and run highlighted by Smith slinging Adam "Pacman" Jones violently to the ground en route to the endzone. Yards after the catch and after contact are Steve Smith's forte. Despite his diminutive height and weight, Smith possesses a startling level of strength and an impressive ability to use his opponents' size, weight, and momentum against them. Smith's four drops on Sunday were presumably an aberration and not indication of some sort of drop-off in catching ability.
Both Jacoby Jones and Torrey Smith also had notable drops in the first half of the game, but they've both been known to drop an occasional pass despite explosive athleticism and blinding speed. Torrey Smith's major drop was on a deep pass down the right sideline as he ran a go-route. Torrey had been interfered seconds before the ball hit his fingertips, but no penalty was thrown. Jacoby Jones' drop was far less forgivable. Jones was wide open in the middle of the field and allowed a pass to sail between his hands and fall uselessly to the turf. This was bad news for the Ravens and Jacoby, but it's good news going forward for another reason. The pass Jacoby Jones failed to catch was beautifully placed despite being thrown on the run and off of Flacco's back foot. In years past Flacco likely would have underthrown such a pass off of his back foot, but this time he showed serious precision and touch on an extremely difficult pass.
Dropped passes were the theme of the first half of the game against the Bengals, but the second half revealed something that Ravens fans had pondered and dreamed about since the hiring of Gary Kubiak in the off-season. The Ravens suddenly ran roughshod over the Bengals offensively, and Flacco spread the ball out to a number of different weapons including Dennis Pitta, Owen Daniels, Torrey Smith, Steve Smith, and Jacoby Jones. The success of the passing game opened up opportunities for Justin Forsett in the running game with 70 yards and a touchdown on only 11 carries. Suddenly the offense that couldn't move the ball 100 yards in the first half was knifing through a highly ranked Bengals defense in the second half to even take a one point lead late in the 4th quarter. Gary Kubiak's system clearly puts offensive weapons in a position to get open and make plays--it was simply a matter of execution.
Joe Flacco threw for a total of 345 yards against a typically impressive Bengals defense, and that had a lot to do with his protection. Flacco's line did give up two late sacks on the final drive of the game, but he was able to avoid serious pressure from a formidable Bengals pass rush for almost the entire 60 minutes as the offensive line held up quite well and Kubiak's system allowed Flacco to smoothly evade pressure by easily rolling out of the pocket.
Not everything went well in the second half. The Ravens held the Bengals scoreless until the last 5 minutes of the game when A.J. Green caught a deep pass from Andy Dalton and took it a total of 77 yards for a touchdown. What was mind-boggling and infuriating to even slightly observant fans was the fact that Chykie Brown had been left to cover A.J. Green. The Ravens have a top tier corner in Jimmy Smith, and Smith possesses the height, speed, and ball skills to cover and potentially shut down even a receiver as talented and athletic as Green. With the Bengals #2 wide receiver, Marvin Jones, out and their best tight end sidelined with a dislocated elbow, why was it that Chykie Brown wasn't asked to cover backup wide receiver, Mohammed Sanu so late in the game? The bad thing is that such a mistake shows a lack of judgement on the part of the Ravens defensive coordinator. The good thing, however, is that Lardarius Webb SHOULD be back to play against Pittsburgh tonight and no longer will the Ravens have to use backups to cover top talent. Chykie Brown can stay with almost any wide receiver in coverage, but he has never been able to truly master the technique of making plays on the ball instead of simply running with the receiver...but no matter because Webby knows EXACTLY how to knock down a pass.
Beyond issues of one on one deep pass coverage, the Ravens showed vulnerability when it came to the short passing game. Baltimore gave up major chunks of yardage to quick, precise screen passes, and those screen passes easily opened the Bengals up for inside runs. The Ravens' only saving grace was buckling down in the redzone, but allowing long drives still serves to wear down a defense so that it gives up big plays late in the game such as the touchdown pass to A.J. Green. The offense certainly didn't help matters by not finishing drives and keeping the defense off the field, but the defense simply couldn't halt drives and force nearly enough punts in the first half of the game. I'd like to think that these issues were corrected in the second half and that they were mostly schematic problems rather than major personnel deficiencies, but the Ravens were facing a Bengals team playing without a full offensive staff.
Tonight's game against Pittsburgh should give us a much better idea of how well this coaching staff adjusts defensively. The Steelers will likely run a good amount of no-huddle offense much like that which the Bengals ran against the Ravens last weekend. I fully expect the Ravens offense to have earlier and more frequent success against a clearly flawed Steelers offense, but the Steelers almost always defend the Ravens well regardless of how they perform against other teams. The big question will be whether or not the Ravens defense can stop the Steelers early and often enough to give the Ravens offense enough opportunities for scoring drives and to eat up time off the clock. Most of the national media is calling for a Steelers win. Why shouldn't they? The Steelers won in Week 1 and the Ravens lost, right? Well that might be a valid point expect that the Steelers only won by a late field goal against a Browns team that once trailed by a whopping 24 points in the first half. The Ravens lost, but at least they did so to last season's division leader.
A major key to tonight's game is the return of Lardarius Webb. If Webb does, in fact, return, how well will he play? The Steelers will undoubtedly pick on him, but given his talent an experience level, that could be quite a bad idea. Another major question mark is the play of Bernard Pierce. Pierce did not run impressively against the Bengals and found himself on the sidelines after a fumble on what could have been a 20 yards run had he simply ran slightly to his left rather than pushing right back into heavy traffic. The hands of the Ravens wide receivers will clearly be a major key to this and any game they play, but I'm confident they'll do a better job than last Sunday. After all, Flacco led the league with 110 lost yards to dropped passes. Even if he had half of that number, he'd have thrown for an even 400 yards and likely been able to score one or two more times.
This is the night where we see what this defense with a host of new defensive pieces is able to do to an offense that features an elite quarterback and an explosive young running back in Le'Veon Bell. If the Ravens can limit Bell and get pressure on Big Ben, this could be a dominant win. I, however, don't expect a dominant win. I expect a low margin of victory Ravens-Steelers slobber-knocker with victory going to the team that scores last. I firmly believe that team will be the Ravens, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the Steelers come out on top either.
THUSDAY NIGHT PREDICTION
STEELERS AT RAVENS- The Ravens have not gone 0-2 to start a season since 2005, and they're not going to break that trend tonight. Flacco looks on point in this new offensive system even if he did mismanage the clock at the end of the first half in that boneheaded play. The Steelers defense gave up 27 second half points to Browns team without Josh Gordon, but the Ravens have a full array of weapons and an offensive line that protects Joe Flacco well. The Ravens defense is still strong enough in the redzone to limit touchdowns, but the Steelers defense appeared way too slow and old last weekend. The Steelers corners and safeties simply aren't good enough to shut down Torrey Smith, Steve Smith, Jacoby Jones, Dennis Pitta, and Owen Daniels. RAVENS 31-26.
If the Ravens lose this game, it's not the end of the world, but it means there are serious issues in Baltimore that need to be addressed. The Steelers simply aren't that good, and a loss tonight means the Ravens will have their hands full with the likes of the Saints, Dolphins, Chargers, and Texans...oh and the Bengals again. Don't panic yet, Ravens fans. It's RAVENS-STEELERS NIGHT IN BALTIMORE!!!!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Thursday, September 4, 2014
PURPLE NIGHTMARE PREDICTIONS: WEEK 1
The 2014 regular season is finally upon us. Unlike the Ravens the year before, the Super Bowl champion Seahawks actually get to play the NFL season opener at home in Seattle. I have not heard more than one pundit predict a victory for the Packers, and many have gone so far as to predict the Seahawks to repeat with a second Super Bowl win. I refuse to make any pre-season Super Bowl predictions as there's simply no video or statistical evidence to support such supposedly educated guesses. Football is a violent, injury-filled sport, and the performance of even major stars can fall precipitously into oblivion from one season to the next. Teams that rely on the legs of premier running backs such as the Seahawks could see a steep decline of players such as Marshawn Lynch within the next season or two. Adrian Peterson is another such back whose production could drop off soon despite his own expectations of dominance for years to come. I'm not necessarily predicting down years for Peterson or Lynch, but simply illustrating the point that proclaiming a Super Bowl champion before the season is a meaningless endeavor and truly just a guess.
The preseason doesn't tell us much about the true strength of each team as teams tend not to tip their hand with regards to schemes and plays before the games actually count. With that said, I'm not going to place much stock in the predictions made today, but we'll certainly have fun watching the first football of the season between two playoff contenders!
WEEK 1 PREDICTIONS
PACKERS AT SEAHAWKS- Aaron Rodgers and Eddie Lacy should tear it up offensively this season, but their efforts will not be enough to beat the Seahawks in their season and home opener. The Seahawks DID lose two of their starting defensive linemen who are both now on the Jaguars. The loss of those players will prove critical in road games, but the 'Hawks simply get too much of a defensive boost in front of their raucous home crowd. SEAHAWKS 24-17
SAINTS AT FALCONS- The Falcons used to be great at home...until last seasons when they became one of the worst teams in the league. There are too many issues with the Falcons and the Saints look far too strong to bet against here. SAINTS 35-23
VIKINGS AT RAMS- Rams defense has truly become a strong unit over the last two seasons, but the loss of their starting quarterback should prove a difficult hurdle to clear especially this early on. I expect a big day from the Vikings offense, but this should be a squeaker. VIKINGS 21-20
BROWNS AT STEELERS- I was among those impressed by Brian Hoyer last season in his brief but successful stint as the Browns' starting QB. Without Josh Gordon, however, the Browns simply don't have the aerial firepower to take down any of their divisional foes this season. I PRAY that the Browns prove me wrong, but I gotta take the team I hate more than anything (I think I'd root for the old Soviet Union if they played the Steelers). STEELERS 27-13.
JAGUARS AT EAGLES- ....EAGLES 38-10
RAIDERS AT JETS- The Jets surprised a lot of people last season. On paper they appeared to be a 4-5 win team and ended up winning half of their games. The Raiders are terrible top to bottom. They will lose--that is all. JETS 20-14
BENGALS AT RAVENS- Andy Dalton has never won a football game in Baltimore. The Ravens look dramatically improved, and the Bengals will be without starting WR Marvin Jones. The Ravens will have at least 2 out of 3 if not all of their starting cornerbacks healthy and ready to go for this game. Joe Flacco has never lost a home opener. Expect offensive fireworks for the Ravens and two picks from Andy Dalton. Heeeeere kitty-kitty-kitty... RAVENS 33-21
BILLS AT BEARS- The Bills don't have a strong enough defense to win on the road against a scary Bears offense. BEARS 28-16
REDSKINS AT TEXANS- Hmmmm which one of these losers is less of a loser? The Redskins secondary looked vastly improved, but now it will be without Brandon "I was only trying to headbutt him" Merriweather. I haven't the faintest clue of what the Texans offense will look like, but .their defense should still be a force. I'm going with the home team here. TEXANS 17-14
TITANS AT CHIEFS- I expect a strong Chiefs defense and a big day from Jamaal Charles. Aarowhead is a loud, terrifying stadium in which to be a visiting team. CHIEFS 23-20
PATRIOTS AT DOLPHINS- I'd love to see the Dolphins surprise the world here and take down Brady and company, but with Gronk back in the mix, the Patriots are going to be a contender once again....until he snaps his spine or an arm falls off (both are not only plausible but also likely). I like Tannehill, but Revis should shut down Mike Wallace. This should be a close one, but the Patriots are too dangerous when healthy. PATRIOTS 24-21
PANTHERS AT BUCCANEERS- Cam Newton is not 100% and they have no Steve Smith (heh heh) but the Panthers still have a dominant defense. The Buccaneers have not given me a reason to respect them in years. PANTHERS 13-7
49ERS AT COWBOYS- The 49ers have serious personnel issues. The Cowboys weren't as bad on defense in the preseason as I expected. Romo should have a big day. COWBOYS 28-21
COLTS AT BRONCOS- Peyton Manning at the beginning of the season? At home? Against an uneven Colts defense? BRONCOS 42-28
GIANTS AT LIONS- I'm not sure how I feel about Jim Caldwell as a head coach, but a healthy Lions offense should torch a broken Giants secondary. LIONS 35-17.
CHARGERS AT CARDINALS- This is probably one of the top 2 most difficult games to predict. The absence of Darnell Dockett along with a poor preseason showing against the Chargers leads me to believe that Phillip Rivers has a decent idea of how to attack the Cardinal's defense. CHARGERS 30-21
It appears clear to me that the Ravens are primed for a big bounce back season in 2014. The rest of the country does not yet agree, but beating the Bengals, Steelers, and Browns in a row should be enough to change their minds.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
The preseason doesn't tell us much about the true strength of each team as teams tend not to tip their hand with regards to schemes and plays before the games actually count. With that said, I'm not going to place much stock in the predictions made today, but we'll certainly have fun watching the first football of the season between two playoff contenders!
WEEK 1 PREDICTIONS
PACKERS AT SEAHAWKS- Aaron Rodgers and Eddie Lacy should tear it up offensively this season, but their efforts will not be enough to beat the Seahawks in their season and home opener. The Seahawks DID lose two of their starting defensive linemen who are both now on the Jaguars. The loss of those players will prove critical in road games, but the 'Hawks simply get too much of a defensive boost in front of their raucous home crowd. SEAHAWKS 24-17
SAINTS AT FALCONS- The Falcons used to be great at home...until last seasons when they became one of the worst teams in the league. There are too many issues with the Falcons and the Saints look far too strong to bet against here. SAINTS 35-23
VIKINGS AT RAMS- Rams defense has truly become a strong unit over the last two seasons, but the loss of their starting quarterback should prove a difficult hurdle to clear especially this early on. I expect a big day from the Vikings offense, but this should be a squeaker. VIKINGS 21-20
BROWNS AT STEELERS- I was among those impressed by Brian Hoyer last season in his brief but successful stint as the Browns' starting QB. Without Josh Gordon, however, the Browns simply don't have the aerial firepower to take down any of their divisional foes this season. I PRAY that the Browns prove me wrong, but I gotta take the team I hate more than anything (I think I'd root for the old Soviet Union if they played the Steelers). STEELERS 27-13.
JAGUARS AT EAGLES- ....EAGLES 38-10
RAIDERS AT JETS- The Jets surprised a lot of people last season. On paper they appeared to be a 4-5 win team and ended up winning half of their games. The Raiders are terrible top to bottom. They will lose--that is all. JETS 20-14
BENGALS AT RAVENS- Andy Dalton has never won a football game in Baltimore. The Ravens look dramatically improved, and the Bengals will be without starting WR Marvin Jones. The Ravens will have at least 2 out of 3 if not all of their starting cornerbacks healthy and ready to go for this game. Joe Flacco has never lost a home opener. Expect offensive fireworks for the Ravens and two picks from Andy Dalton. Heeeeere kitty-kitty-kitty... RAVENS 33-21
BILLS AT BEARS- The Bills don't have a strong enough defense to win on the road against a scary Bears offense. BEARS 28-16
REDSKINS AT TEXANS- Hmmmm which one of these losers is less of a loser? The Redskins secondary looked vastly improved, but now it will be without Brandon "I was only trying to headbutt him" Merriweather. I haven't the faintest clue of what the Texans offense will look like, but .their defense should still be a force. I'm going with the home team here. TEXANS 17-14
TITANS AT CHIEFS- I expect a strong Chiefs defense and a big day from Jamaal Charles. Aarowhead is a loud, terrifying stadium in which to be a visiting team. CHIEFS 23-20
PATRIOTS AT DOLPHINS- I'd love to see the Dolphins surprise the world here and take down Brady and company, but with Gronk back in the mix, the Patriots are going to be a contender once again....until he snaps his spine or an arm falls off (both are not only plausible but also likely). I like Tannehill, but Revis should shut down Mike Wallace. This should be a close one, but the Patriots are too dangerous when healthy. PATRIOTS 24-21
PANTHERS AT BUCCANEERS- Cam Newton is not 100% and they have no Steve Smith (heh heh) but the Panthers still have a dominant defense. The Buccaneers have not given me a reason to respect them in years. PANTHERS 13-7
49ERS AT COWBOYS- The 49ers have serious personnel issues. The Cowboys weren't as bad on defense in the preseason as I expected. Romo should have a big day. COWBOYS 28-21
COLTS AT BRONCOS- Peyton Manning at the beginning of the season? At home? Against an uneven Colts defense? BRONCOS 42-28
GIANTS AT LIONS- I'm not sure how I feel about Jim Caldwell as a head coach, but a healthy Lions offense should torch a broken Giants secondary. LIONS 35-17.
CHARGERS AT CARDINALS- This is probably one of the top 2 most difficult games to predict. The absence of Darnell Dockett along with a poor preseason showing against the Chargers leads me to believe that Phillip Rivers has a decent idea of how to attack the Cardinal's defense. CHARGERS 30-21
It appears clear to me that the Ravens are primed for a big bounce back season in 2014. The rest of the country does not yet agree, but beating the Bengals, Steelers, and Browns in a row should be enough to change their minds.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Wednesday, August 6, 2014
RAVENS PRESEASON PROLOGUE: HOW MUCH WILL BE CONSIDERED A SUCCESS IN 2014?
Here we sit on the eve of the 2014 NFL preseason, and I find myself unusually excited and curious to watch games that count for almost nothing beyond offering clarification as to which players will make the final 53 man roster of each team. Don't get me wrong; I spend every month from February to August itching for football season to return, but this year is particularly intriguing for Baltimore. Feelings of curiosity and optimism fill my mind as I read about just how well this year's defensive draft picks appear to be absorbing schematic information and thriving in training camp. The prospect of Gary Kubiak's offensive system transforming the Ravens into a points-scoring juggernaut makes my spin like a top. The addition of sure-handed weapons such as Steve Smith and Owen Daniels give me confidence about the Ravens' ability to convert 3rd downs and sustain drives this season the type of which they failed to sustain in 2013. There are worries and doubts that fuel my curiosity as well. The health of Lardarius Webb is not something anyone could have anticipated as a major concern a month or two ago, but the first preseason game is tomorrow night and the Ravens will take the field without one of their two starting cornerbacks. The general consensus among Ravens fans I've talked to is that the Baltimore will have a better season than last year, but just how much better it will be remains a question with an answer that will reveal itself one week at a time.
Missing the playoffs for the first time in six years felt disappointing for Ravens fans to say the least. Making the playoffs in 2014, however, would certainly indicate that the Ravens are back on track...right? Prior to winning the Super Bowl two seasons ago, Ravens fans always seemed to feel let down each time Baltimore was bounced from the playoffs. Maybe it was the feeling of urgency to win before Ray Lewis and Ed Reed exited the organization, or maybe it was because the Ravens felt the need to prove themselves after twice losing the Steelers in the playoffs early in the Harbaugh-Flacco era.
Missing the playoffs for the first time in six years felt disappointing for Ravens fans to say the least. Making the playoffs in 2014, however, would certainly indicate that the Ravens are back on track...right? Prior to winning the Super Bowl two seasons ago, Ravens fans always seemed to feel let down each time Baltimore was bounced from the playoffs. Maybe it was the feeling of urgency to win before Ray Lewis and Ed Reed exited the organization, or maybe it was because the Ravens felt the need to prove themselves after twice losing the Steelers in the playoffs early in the Harbaugh-Flacco era.
Regardless of the reason, the Ravens organization and its
fanbase are content with nothing less than championship caliber
football, and I strongly doubt a simple trip back to the playoffs will
leave anyone feeling satisfied in Charm City. No team can expect a
Super Bowl every season, every other season, every third season, or even
just every decade, A tight salary cap and the depressingly short
average career length of NFL players both make repeated Super Bowl
success a near impossibility at this point in the evolution of
football.
Many may remember, however, that the Ravens came one quarter of one game away from winning the AFC North for the third time in a row in 2013. As talented as many believe the Bengals to be, they are simply not well coached enough to turn that talent into post-season success. The Steelers appear competitive at times during most seasons, but seldom do they maintain any level of dominance long enough to make playoff noise or simply even earn a playoff berth anymore. The Steelers have, in fact, failed to win a playoff game in 4 of the last 5 seasons, and that reflects rather poorly on Mike Tomlin ans his coaching staff.
Unlike the Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals, few outside of Ohio tend to display optimism on any given year about the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland has certainly given some fans hope by building a relatively young team with some top level talent. Despite the presence of some outstanding athletes, however, I simply can't see the Browns showing anything but future potential. The heads of the organization are tired of losing, but their typical solution to every one of the team's problems has been to clean house of their coaching staff. That strategy has provided zero opportunity for continuity or for the growth of a system. They may continue to occassionally upset divisional foes, but it could be a long time before the Browns escape the bottom of the AFC North.
Given the recent mediocrity of the division, the relative weakness of the Ravens' upcoming schedule, and the noticeable improvements to the Ravens' roster and coaching personnel, I believe the Ravens should win a minimum of 10 games in 2014. More precisely, I believe the Ravens will win 12 games this season and earn their 6th playoff berth in 7 years. Is this enough to signal progress, or are 2-3 playoff wins required to convince Ravens fans that this team is back in business?
One thing I've noticed since the Ravens first rose to dominance almost decade and a half ago is the tendency of most NFL fans outside of Maryland to find some reason to dismiss Baltimore during discussions of the league's strongest teams and Super Bowl contenders. It doesn't seem to be enough that the Ravens rank only behind the Patriots in total playoff wins since the creation of the team. It also doesn't seem to matter that only the Patriots have more Super Bowl victories than the Ravens during that same period. Maybe it's the historic lack of a flashy offense, or maybe it's the fact that they've never had pro bowl caliber quarterback play, but something about the Ravens seems to make them perpetual underdogs in the minds of many. For that reason it is likely that we Ravens fans yearn for consistent dominance and become heartbroken with anything less than Super Bowl victory; we want our favorite team to be revered and respected for the resoundingly successful organization it is and not constantly doubted and dismissed.
Clearly the yearly expectation of a deep playoff run ot Super Bowl appearance only sets us up for some level of disappointment, but it's that hunger and firm belief in this team that drives it to greatness. You better believe that every member of the Baltimore Ravens organization has just as much if not more confidence in the players and coaching staff to go all the way on any given year. That confidence is NOT something you find in every team in the NFL, but it IS absolutely vital to success. Ravens fans should consider themselves lucky to have that quality in the personnel of the team they so love.
A close friend of mine once explained to me that he makes his best efforts to never get his hopes up about his favorite football team, and in that way he avoids disappointment if they fail to make the post season. If his team makes a playoff run, however, he becomes pleasantly surprised. His team HAS won two Super Bowls in the last six years so he has had a pair of rather pleasant surprises to say the least. I respect my friend, but I don't agree with his style of fanhood. I firmly believe that being a true fan and loving a team means feeling a sports depression when they fail and an extreme high when they win. After all, it's impossible to truly love something and be indifferent to its successes and failures at the same time.
I certainly don't expect the Ravens to win the Super Bowl every year, but every year I absolutely believe they can. It's difficult to know how they look as a team until we see them in Week 1, but on paper the Ravens have the biggest array of offensive weapons in the history of the team, arguably the best special teams in the NFL, and a strong defense that was markedly bolstered through the draft. On paper, this appears to be the most complete Ravens team in years--let's just hope that translates well to the field. Football, after all, isn't played on paper or a computer screen--it's played on turf. This season will provide the first true reflection of John Harbaugh's coaching ability; let's see just how far he can lead our guys in 2014.
Many may remember, however, that the Ravens came one quarter of one game away from winning the AFC North for the third time in a row in 2013. As talented as many believe the Bengals to be, they are simply not well coached enough to turn that talent into post-season success. The Steelers appear competitive at times during most seasons, but seldom do they maintain any level of dominance long enough to make playoff noise or simply even earn a playoff berth anymore. The Steelers have, in fact, failed to win a playoff game in 4 of the last 5 seasons, and that reflects rather poorly on Mike Tomlin ans his coaching staff.
Unlike the Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals, few outside of Ohio tend to display optimism on any given year about the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland has certainly given some fans hope by building a relatively young team with some top level talent. Despite the presence of some outstanding athletes, however, I simply can't see the Browns showing anything but future potential. The heads of the organization are tired of losing, but their typical solution to every one of the team's problems has been to clean house of their coaching staff. That strategy has provided zero opportunity for continuity or for the growth of a system. They may continue to occassionally upset divisional foes, but it could be a long time before the Browns escape the bottom of the AFC North.
Given the recent mediocrity of the division, the relative weakness of the Ravens' upcoming schedule, and the noticeable improvements to the Ravens' roster and coaching personnel, I believe the Ravens should win a minimum of 10 games in 2014. More precisely, I believe the Ravens will win 12 games this season and earn their 6th playoff berth in 7 years. Is this enough to signal progress, or are 2-3 playoff wins required to convince Ravens fans that this team is back in business?
One thing I've noticed since the Ravens first rose to dominance almost decade and a half ago is the tendency of most NFL fans outside of Maryland to find some reason to dismiss Baltimore during discussions of the league's strongest teams and Super Bowl contenders. It doesn't seem to be enough that the Ravens rank only behind the Patriots in total playoff wins since the creation of the team. It also doesn't seem to matter that only the Patriots have more Super Bowl victories than the Ravens during that same period. Maybe it's the historic lack of a flashy offense, or maybe it's the fact that they've never had pro bowl caliber quarterback play, but something about the Ravens seems to make them perpetual underdogs in the minds of many. For that reason it is likely that we Ravens fans yearn for consistent dominance and become heartbroken with anything less than Super Bowl victory; we want our favorite team to be revered and respected for the resoundingly successful organization it is and not constantly doubted and dismissed.
Clearly the yearly expectation of a deep playoff run ot Super Bowl appearance only sets us up for some level of disappointment, but it's that hunger and firm belief in this team that drives it to greatness. You better believe that every member of the Baltimore Ravens organization has just as much if not more confidence in the players and coaching staff to go all the way on any given year. That confidence is NOT something you find in every team in the NFL, but it IS absolutely vital to success. Ravens fans should consider themselves lucky to have that quality in the personnel of the team they so love.
A close friend of mine once explained to me that he makes his best efforts to never get his hopes up about his favorite football team, and in that way he avoids disappointment if they fail to make the post season. If his team makes a playoff run, however, he becomes pleasantly surprised. His team HAS won two Super Bowls in the last six years so he has had a pair of rather pleasant surprises to say the least. I respect my friend, but I don't agree with his style of fanhood. I firmly believe that being a true fan and loving a team means feeling a sports depression when they fail and an extreme high when they win. After all, it's impossible to truly love something and be indifferent to its successes and failures at the same time.
I certainly don't expect the Ravens to win the Super Bowl every year, but every year I absolutely believe they can. It's difficult to know how they look as a team until we see them in Week 1, but on paper the Ravens have the biggest array of offensive weapons in the history of the team, arguably the best special teams in the NFL, and a strong defense that was markedly bolstered through the draft. On paper, this appears to be the most complete Ravens team in years--let's just hope that translates well to the field. Football, after all, isn't played on paper or a computer screen--it's played on turf. This season will provide the first true reflection of John Harbaugh's coaching ability; let's see just how far he can lead our guys in 2014.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
GO RAVENS!!!
Tuesday, June 24, 2014
SUMMERTIME STATE OF THE RAVENS
It has been nearly two months since the end of an NFL Draft in which the Baltimore Ravens managed to surprise and confuse a sizable number of their fans. Ozzie Newsome and Eric DeCosta did not pull the trigger on a big offensive tackle, tight end, or wide receiver in the first two rounds as many thought they would. They didn't pick up a safety with their first pick either, and they neglected to pick up a cornerback at any point in the draft. No, the Ravens didn't select picks the way a lot of fans wanted...they picked FAR more intelligently.
The natural reaction after an offensively abysmal 2013 season is to demand that the Ravens use their high draft picks on offensive pieces. The offensive line was absolutely atrocious, the running game was the worst in team history, and Joe Flacco threw for more interceptions than touchdowns with a patchwork receiving corps. Many fans forget, however, the major factors that combined to deliver such poor production, and virtually every single one of those factors has since been corrected during this off-season.
The most glaring offensive weakness of 2013 was the offensive line. The O line's poor performance stemmed from both issues of scheme and available personnel. Kelechi Osemele missed over half of the season with back pain stemming from a bulging disk. Marshall Yanda had never fully recovered from shoulder surgery he underwent during the 2013 the off-season, but he still opted to play. Michael Oher suffered a leg injury in Week 1, and Gino Gradkowski simply wasn't up to the task of replacing Matt Birk. Juan Castillo, meanwhile, attempted to install an overly complicated set of blocking schemes that even he admitted would take up to 9 weeks of the regular season to truly be mastered by the offensive linemen.
The Ravens wasted no time finding solutions to problems with the offensive line. The Ravens acquired center Jeremy Zuttah formerly of the Tampa Bay Bucaneers. Zuttah is not a top ranked center, but he's a big, versatile, experienced lineman who did not allow a single sack last season. The Ravens also celebrated the return to health of Kelechi Osemele who is reportedly in fantastic shape after rehabbing from back surgery. Marshal Yanda is also fully recovered from his shoulder surgery in 2013, and the Ravens managed to lock Eugene Monroe into a five year contract to protect Joe Flacco's blindside through the prime of his career. Many fans may have been wary of replacing Michael Oher with Ricky Wagner as this is only the Wisconsin product's second year in the league, and he didn't blow anyone away with his performance in 2013. Wagner, nevertheless, has reportedly looked great in camp, and he has the full confidence of his coaching staff as the Ravens head into the summer months. As with any position, experience is paramount, and now Wagner has accrued some of it.
As for the schematic issues of the offensive line, many fans hoped to hear that Juan Castillo would lose his job immediately following the 2013 regular season. John Harbaugh insisted that Castillo's job was safe, but then proceeded to hire Gary Kubiak as offensive coordinator. Kubiak brought with him his own blocking schemes which players have already praised. Players reported that they're never left guessing who they're supposed to block in Kubiak's schemes, and Castillo's job is simply to help facilitate and teach this system--not force his own.
Not only was Joe Flacco's protection poor in 2013, but his stable of receivers became frighteningly thin. The trade of Anquan Boldin and injury of Dennis Pitta meant that Flacco, for the first time in his career, had no sure-handed tight end or wiley, physical possession receiver. Whether it was Todd Heap and Derrick Mason or Dennis Pitta and Anquan Boldin, Joe always had at least a pair or dependable targets until last season. Flacco did not even have one of his explosive deep threats for a significant chunk of the season as a special teams blunder left Jacoby Jones with a sprained knee in Week 1. Baltimore was left with a often double-covered Torrey Smith and a handful of young, unproven wideouts.
There is absolutely nothing young or unproven about Steve Smith. When the Ravens signed Smith they got a veteran with quickness, amazing hands, fantastic route running ability, and the physicality that the Ravens receiving corps has lacked since the trade of Anquan Boldin. Smith does everything that Boldin and Mason did, but he does it all a little bit more explosively. He may not be built like Anquan Boldin, and as a result Smith may not be the devastating blocker that Q proved to be while in Baltimore. For his size, however, Steve Smith is surprisingly physical, and has already engaged in minor, highly publicized altercations on the practice field with defensive veterans. One important thing Steve Smith does that Boldin never could during his time in purple is separate from defenders. Smith's ability to change direction and accelerate makes him a nightmare for even some of the games top cornerbacks--just ask Aqib Talib.
In addition to Smith, the Ravens added former Pro Bowl tight end, Owen Daniels, to form a dynamic pass-catching duo with Dennis Pitta. Daniels is one season removed from a trip to the Pro Bowl, and any misconception that Daniels is old an on the decline is in for a pleasant surprise this fall. Daniels was injured for much of the 2013 season, and that led to his fall on the Texans' depth chart. Dennis Pitta might be two years younger with far less mileage on his body than Daniels, but Daniels is totally fluent in Gary Kubiak's offensive system, and he'll hit the ground running both literally and figuratively this September.
The changes and additions to the offensive line and receiving corps should help to improve a Ravens rushing attack that was historically awful in 2013. I expect both Bernard Pierce and Ray Rice to be fully rehabbed form their nagging injuries and in excellent condition with a lot to prove in 2014. Rice has reportedly looked lean and explosive thus far in off-season team activities, and the only thing that will likely hold him back from posting his old usual amazing all-purpose yardage stats will be the suspension that has yet to be leveled by commissioner Roger Goodell.
I must address the recent reports that rice is staring down a 4-6 or more game suspension for his altercation with his wife in Atlantic City. Rice has never been involved in any off-the-field misbehavior, and no first time offender has ever been suspended for more than 2 games. With that said, it's entirely possible that the video of Rice carrying his fiance out of the elevator was inflammatory enough that Goodell feels pressure to make the punishment more severe than that of other first-time offenders. Some have brought up that Ben Roethlisberger received a 4 game suspension after being accused (not charged) of rape. One must remember, however, that the suspension came after Big Ben's SECOND rape allegation, not the first. Ben's original suspension was for 6 games, and he reduced it to 4 games during the appeals process. Because of the fact that Rice avoided trial with a pre-trial intervention program, I would bet that Rice will initially be suspended for 4-5 games, but that suspension will be reduced to 2-3 games through an appeal. Enough of this legal stuff, let's get back to football.
Because the Ravens were able to address nearly every offensive issue that marred the 2013 season before the NFL draft, it makes perfect sense that they used the draft to address major defensive departures from the 2012 season and possible major departures in 2015 and 2016. The retirement of Ray Lewis and loss of Ed Reed left the Ravens without a middle linebacker of the future and a true free safety. Daryl Smith had a fantastic 2013 season, but he recently turned 32 and can't be counted on beyond 2-3 more seasons at most. Haloti Ngata has not yet reached the end of his contract, but he has casually mentioned retirement in the last two years, and his refusal to sign a contract extension seems to indicate that he may simply plan to play out the remainder of his contract and then hang up his giant cleats.
Ozzie Newsome and Eric DeCosta found themselves in pleasant circumstances in the 2014 NFL draft as they were fortunate enough to be able to draft three defensive players of 1st-2nd round level talent with their first three picks. As luck would have it, the first three picks appear to be the successors to Ray Lewis and Ed Reed's positions, and one will likely be the immediate replacement for Arthur Jones or possibly the ultimate successor to Haloti Ngata.
Middle linebacker never crossed my mind as a position the Ravens would draft first in 2014, but I'm certainly glad Ozzie Newsome pulled the trigger on C.J. Mosley. This Alabama product was ranked far too highly on the Ravens' draft board to pass up at #17. Middle linebacker may not have seemed like a glaring need, but reports suggest that last year's 2nd round pick, Arthur Brown, was progressing in his development much more slowly that the Ravens had hoped. Mosley, on the other hand, has reportedly hit the ground running in off-season Ravens practices, and we should expect nothing less from a player that the Ravens ranked a top ten pick on their draft board. Mosley covers sideline-to-sideline extremely well against the run and proved quite effective in pass coverage at Alabama. This young leader should see his fair share of Pro Bowls.
I did not panic after the Ravens picked a middle linebacker with their first pick because I assumed Ozzie would surely use his second pick on one of the top free safeties left on the board. I cringed, however, when I learned the Ravens picked a defensive lineman in the second round. What was Ozzie thinking? How could he squander both of the Ravens' first two draft picks on positions of comparative surplus when free safety and right tackle were such positions of pressing need? Nevertheless, with each subsequent pick I noticed that the free safety I had ranked third on my Ravens Draft Wishlist, Terrence Brooks, remained unpicked and available. Sure enough, the Ravens picked the national champion FSU free safety with their third pick, and it dawned upon me that the Ravens had just drafted the future core of their defense without trading up, trading back, or picking based on need instead of the best available talent.
Let's back up for just a moment. That defensive lineman the Ravens picked in the second round could very well be the steal of the entire draft for Baltimore in 2014. Timmy Jernigan was easily top 20-25 talent based on his size, athleticism, and performance in an undefeated FSU season that culminated in a national championship. Jernigan was easily the best defensive player at Florida State in 2013. He demonstrated excellent hand skills and strength as he made shedding blockers look effortless and smooth. Jernigan displayed fantastic tackling ability and deceptive speed for a 300+ pound defensive tackle. Jernigan may not be high on the depth chart for defensive lineman yet, but the Ravens love to frequently rotate in defensive lineman, and Timmy will undoubtedly have his chance to shine in 2014.
We won't know exactly how well the 2014 NFL Draft went for Baltimore for at least another 1-3 seasons, but I don't think anyone can accuse Ozzie Newsome and Eric DeCosta of drafting poorly given the currently available game film and information about each of their top three picks. This is not a situation like that of 2010 wherein questionable behavior from the likes of Sergio Kindle could leave some doubting Ozzie Newsome's judgement. There are no major red flags in the character department for this bunch, and we should absolutely expect a new generation of leaders to emerge in the coming seasons.
I would be remiss if I didn't discuss the Ravens trading back into the seventh round of the 2014 draft in order to pick up River Hill High School's own Michael Campanaro. I watched this young man beat up on rival Howard County football teams for years before he went on to become the best receiver in Wake Forest history. Some have praised Campanaro as a Wes Welker or Julian Edelman style receiver, and they're correct...but Campanaro is simply faster than both of them. A 40 yard dash isn't necessarily evidence that one receiver will be more successful than another, but when all other factors are relatively comparable, it's nice to be the guy with the 4.46 official combine 40 time. Edelman's time was slightly slower at 4.52 seconds, and Welker's time was significantly slower at 4.65 seconds. Campanaro would be EXTREMELY lucky to have the success of Wes Welker, but that doesn't mean he can't be just as athletic, and even more explosive. The short, shifty receiver should fit right into Gary Kubiak's system which frequently involves the quarterback dropping back with fewer steps in order to get the ball out far more quickly than Joe Flacco had previously done in the offenses of Cam Cameron and Jim Caldwell. Campanaro has had injury issues and even recently suffered a hamstring injury, but if he can maintain relative health as a pro, we could could soon witness the ascension to stardom of a truly home-grown talent.
I KNOW MANY OF YOU ARE IN WORLD CUP MODE AT THE MOMENT, BUT DON'T LET THAT PREVENT YOU FROM GETTING PUMPED ABOUT A MUCH IMPROVED BALTIMORE RAVENS ROSTER AND STAFF. WE HAVE ONLY 6 WEEKS UNTIL THE START OF THE PRE-SEASON--GET HYPED FOOTBALLTIMORE!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
The natural reaction after an offensively abysmal 2013 season is to demand that the Ravens use their high draft picks on offensive pieces. The offensive line was absolutely atrocious, the running game was the worst in team history, and Joe Flacco threw for more interceptions than touchdowns with a patchwork receiving corps. Many fans forget, however, the major factors that combined to deliver such poor production, and virtually every single one of those factors has since been corrected during this off-season.
The most glaring offensive weakness of 2013 was the offensive line. The O line's poor performance stemmed from both issues of scheme and available personnel. Kelechi Osemele missed over half of the season with back pain stemming from a bulging disk. Marshall Yanda had never fully recovered from shoulder surgery he underwent during the 2013 the off-season, but he still opted to play. Michael Oher suffered a leg injury in Week 1, and Gino Gradkowski simply wasn't up to the task of replacing Matt Birk. Juan Castillo, meanwhile, attempted to install an overly complicated set of blocking schemes that even he admitted would take up to 9 weeks of the regular season to truly be mastered by the offensive linemen.
The Ravens wasted no time finding solutions to problems with the offensive line. The Ravens acquired center Jeremy Zuttah formerly of the Tampa Bay Bucaneers. Zuttah is not a top ranked center, but he's a big, versatile, experienced lineman who did not allow a single sack last season. The Ravens also celebrated the return to health of Kelechi Osemele who is reportedly in fantastic shape after rehabbing from back surgery. Marshal Yanda is also fully recovered from his shoulder surgery in 2013, and the Ravens managed to lock Eugene Monroe into a five year contract to protect Joe Flacco's blindside through the prime of his career. Many fans may have been wary of replacing Michael Oher with Ricky Wagner as this is only the Wisconsin product's second year in the league, and he didn't blow anyone away with his performance in 2013. Wagner, nevertheless, has reportedly looked great in camp, and he has the full confidence of his coaching staff as the Ravens head into the summer months. As with any position, experience is paramount, and now Wagner has accrued some of it.
As for the schematic issues of the offensive line, many fans hoped to hear that Juan Castillo would lose his job immediately following the 2013 regular season. John Harbaugh insisted that Castillo's job was safe, but then proceeded to hire Gary Kubiak as offensive coordinator. Kubiak brought with him his own blocking schemes which players have already praised. Players reported that they're never left guessing who they're supposed to block in Kubiak's schemes, and Castillo's job is simply to help facilitate and teach this system--not force his own.
Not only was Joe Flacco's protection poor in 2013, but his stable of receivers became frighteningly thin. The trade of Anquan Boldin and injury of Dennis Pitta meant that Flacco, for the first time in his career, had no sure-handed tight end or wiley, physical possession receiver. Whether it was Todd Heap and Derrick Mason or Dennis Pitta and Anquan Boldin, Joe always had at least a pair or dependable targets until last season. Flacco did not even have one of his explosive deep threats for a significant chunk of the season as a special teams blunder left Jacoby Jones with a sprained knee in Week 1. Baltimore was left with a often double-covered Torrey Smith and a handful of young, unproven wideouts.
There is absolutely nothing young or unproven about Steve Smith. When the Ravens signed Smith they got a veteran with quickness, amazing hands, fantastic route running ability, and the physicality that the Ravens receiving corps has lacked since the trade of Anquan Boldin. Smith does everything that Boldin and Mason did, but he does it all a little bit more explosively. He may not be built like Anquan Boldin, and as a result Smith may not be the devastating blocker that Q proved to be while in Baltimore. For his size, however, Steve Smith is surprisingly physical, and has already engaged in minor, highly publicized altercations on the practice field with defensive veterans. One important thing Steve Smith does that Boldin never could during his time in purple is separate from defenders. Smith's ability to change direction and accelerate makes him a nightmare for even some of the games top cornerbacks--just ask Aqib Talib.
In addition to Smith, the Ravens added former Pro Bowl tight end, Owen Daniels, to form a dynamic pass-catching duo with Dennis Pitta. Daniels is one season removed from a trip to the Pro Bowl, and any misconception that Daniels is old an on the decline is in for a pleasant surprise this fall. Daniels was injured for much of the 2013 season, and that led to his fall on the Texans' depth chart. Dennis Pitta might be two years younger with far less mileage on his body than Daniels, but Daniels is totally fluent in Gary Kubiak's offensive system, and he'll hit the ground running both literally and figuratively this September.
The changes and additions to the offensive line and receiving corps should help to improve a Ravens rushing attack that was historically awful in 2013. I expect both Bernard Pierce and Ray Rice to be fully rehabbed form their nagging injuries and in excellent condition with a lot to prove in 2014. Rice has reportedly looked lean and explosive thus far in off-season team activities, and the only thing that will likely hold him back from posting his old usual amazing all-purpose yardage stats will be the suspension that has yet to be leveled by commissioner Roger Goodell.
I must address the recent reports that rice is staring down a 4-6 or more game suspension for his altercation with his wife in Atlantic City. Rice has never been involved in any off-the-field misbehavior, and no first time offender has ever been suspended for more than 2 games. With that said, it's entirely possible that the video of Rice carrying his fiance out of the elevator was inflammatory enough that Goodell feels pressure to make the punishment more severe than that of other first-time offenders. Some have brought up that Ben Roethlisberger received a 4 game suspension after being accused (not charged) of rape. One must remember, however, that the suspension came after Big Ben's SECOND rape allegation, not the first. Ben's original suspension was for 6 games, and he reduced it to 4 games during the appeals process. Because of the fact that Rice avoided trial with a pre-trial intervention program, I would bet that Rice will initially be suspended for 4-5 games, but that suspension will be reduced to 2-3 games through an appeal. Enough of this legal stuff, let's get back to football.
Because the Ravens were able to address nearly every offensive issue that marred the 2013 season before the NFL draft, it makes perfect sense that they used the draft to address major defensive departures from the 2012 season and possible major departures in 2015 and 2016. The retirement of Ray Lewis and loss of Ed Reed left the Ravens without a middle linebacker of the future and a true free safety. Daryl Smith had a fantastic 2013 season, but he recently turned 32 and can't be counted on beyond 2-3 more seasons at most. Haloti Ngata has not yet reached the end of his contract, but he has casually mentioned retirement in the last two years, and his refusal to sign a contract extension seems to indicate that he may simply plan to play out the remainder of his contract and then hang up his giant cleats.
Ozzie Newsome and Eric DeCosta found themselves in pleasant circumstances in the 2014 NFL draft as they were fortunate enough to be able to draft three defensive players of 1st-2nd round level talent with their first three picks. As luck would have it, the first three picks appear to be the successors to Ray Lewis and Ed Reed's positions, and one will likely be the immediate replacement for Arthur Jones or possibly the ultimate successor to Haloti Ngata.
Middle linebacker never crossed my mind as a position the Ravens would draft first in 2014, but I'm certainly glad Ozzie Newsome pulled the trigger on C.J. Mosley. This Alabama product was ranked far too highly on the Ravens' draft board to pass up at #17. Middle linebacker may not have seemed like a glaring need, but reports suggest that last year's 2nd round pick, Arthur Brown, was progressing in his development much more slowly that the Ravens had hoped. Mosley, on the other hand, has reportedly hit the ground running in off-season Ravens practices, and we should expect nothing less from a player that the Ravens ranked a top ten pick on their draft board. Mosley covers sideline-to-sideline extremely well against the run and proved quite effective in pass coverage at Alabama. This young leader should see his fair share of Pro Bowls.
I did not panic after the Ravens picked a middle linebacker with their first pick because I assumed Ozzie would surely use his second pick on one of the top free safeties left on the board. I cringed, however, when I learned the Ravens picked a defensive lineman in the second round. What was Ozzie thinking? How could he squander both of the Ravens' first two draft picks on positions of comparative surplus when free safety and right tackle were such positions of pressing need? Nevertheless, with each subsequent pick I noticed that the free safety I had ranked third on my Ravens Draft Wishlist, Terrence Brooks, remained unpicked and available. Sure enough, the Ravens picked the national champion FSU free safety with their third pick, and it dawned upon me that the Ravens had just drafted the future core of their defense without trading up, trading back, or picking based on need instead of the best available talent.
Let's back up for just a moment. That defensive lineman the Ravens picked in the second round could very well be the steal of the entire draft for Baltimore in 2014. Timmy Jernigan was easily top 20-25 talent based on his size, athleticism, and performance in an undefeated FSU season that culminated in a national championship. Jernigan was easily the best defensive player at Florida State in 2013. He demonstrated excellent hand skills and strength as he made shedding blockers look effortless and smooth. Jernigan displayed fantastic tackling ability and deceptive speed for a 300+ pound defensive tackle. Jernigan may not be high on the depth chart for defensive lineman yet, but the Ravens love to frequently rotate in defensive lineman, and Timmy will undoubtedly have his chance to shine in 2014.
We won't know exactly how well the 2014 NFL Draft went for Baltimore for at least another 1-3 seasons, but I don't think anyone can accuse Ozzie Newsome and Eric DeCosta of drafting poorly given the currently available game film and information about each of their top three picks. This is not a situation like that of 2010 wherein questionable behavior from the likes of Sergio Kindle could leave some doubting Ozzie Newsome's judgement. There are no major red flags in the character department for this bunch, and we should absolutely expect a new generation of leaders to emerge in the coming seasons.
I would be remiss if I didn't discuss the Ravens trading back into the seventh round of the 2014 draft in order to pick up River Hill High School's own Michael Campanaro. I watched this young man beat up on rival Howard County football teams for years before he went on to become the best receiver in Wake Forest history. Some have praised Campanaro as a Wes Welker or Julian Edelman style receiver, and they're correct...but Campanaro is simply faster than both of them. A 40 yard dash isn't necessarily evidence that one receiver will be more successful than another, but when all other factors are relatively comparable, it's nice to be the guy with the 4.46 official combine 40 time. Edelman's time was slightly slower at 4.52 seconds, and Welker's time was significantly slower at 4.65 seconds. Campanaro would be EXTREMELY lucky to have the success of Wes Welker, but that doesn't mean he can't be just as athletic, and even more explosive. The short, shifty receiver should fit right into Gary Kubiak's system which frequently involves the quarterback dropping back with fewer steps in order to get the ball out far more quickly than Joe Flacco had previously done in the offenses of Cam Cameron and Jim Caldwell. Campanaro has had injury issues and even recently suffered a hamstring injury, but if he can maintain relative health as a pro, we could could soon witness the ascension to stardom of a truly home-grown talent.
I KNOW MANY OF YOU ARE IN WORLD CUP MODE AT THE MOMENT, BUT DON'T LET THAT PREVENT YOU FROM GETTING PUMPED ABOUT A MUCH IMPROVED BALTIMORE RAVENS ROSTER AND STAFF. WE HAVE ONLY 6 WEEKS UNTIL THE START OF THE PRE-SEASON--GET HYPED FOOTBALLTIMORE!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Tuesday, April 8, 2014
RAVENS 2014 DRAFT WISHLIST
The pattern in recent years of Super Bowl-winning teams missing the playoffs in the following season is undoubtedly frustrating to fans of those franchises. The Ravens proved to be no exception to that trend as they went 8-8 and missed the playoffs in 2013. We, as Ravens fans, were frustrated as we watched a post-season berth slip away after the Ravens found themselves tied 17-17 in the 3rd quarter against a Bengals team they had already beaten earlier in the season...and then proceeded to blow it from that point on. As soon as the Ravens tied, however, I remarked to my sister that I couldn't see Baltimore winning that game anyway as they couldn't consistently move the ball or stop the Bengals except with interceptions. It seemed pessimistic at the time, but it proved accurate. I found myself not saddened or shocked by the end of the season, but simply numb and ready for the aggressive changes Ozzie Newsome most certainly had in store for this uneven team.
The season wasn't all bad. For a four game stretch it appeared as though the Ravens were right back to their "Team of Destiny" clutch style of heroics with triumphant wins reminiscent of the previous season's Super Bowl run. Toward the end of arguably the MOST triumphant of these wins, however, Joe Flacco's knee took a violent blow from the helmet of an opposing defender which ultimately sealed the fate of the Ravens. Suddenly a typically confident Flacco appeared terrified to step into his throws and, thus, put any pressure on his sprained knee. Joe even crumpled to the turf seemingly without reason in an embarrassing play at home against the Patriots the following week.
Instead of looking back at Joe Flacco's injury as that one critical factor that snuffed out the fire and drive of a team red-hot in the second half of the season, it's important that we look at Joe's knee injury as the impetus for change to an obviously flawed team. This wasn't the first time that Joe Flacco found himself on the receiving end of a devastating hit. Flacco was the the second most sacked quarterback in the league, and that is not a category in which a QB wishes himself to be elite. The offensive line simply wasn't doing its job, and the Ravens organization could not stand by any longer and watch their 120 million dollar investment get pummeled.
I know that the vast majority of fans wished Juan Castillo would have been tarred, feathered, and then set ablaze ceremoniously atop one of the presumably fully functional towers at the Castle/Under Armour Performance Center, but John Harbaugh had other less draconian plans for the coach that he dubbed "the finest teacher of football in the National Football League." Those plans apparently included a public decree of job security for Castillo while the Ravens let go of their previously successful running backs coach, Wilbert Montgomery, and their Super Bowl winning offensive line coach, Andy Moller. It remains unclear as to why Castillo received such a ringing endorsement and promotion after his changes to the Ravens' blocking schemes led to horrendous protection for Flacco and the worst rushing attack in Ravens history, but worries about Castillo were soon drowned out by far more exciting news.
The hiring of Gary Kubiak in the eleventh hour of an offensive coordinator search brought me great hope for the 2014 season. Not only has Gary proven himself as a head coach, but he has actually won a pair of Super Bowls as an offensive coordinator in the 1990's. Kubiak's play-calling ability is unquestionably sound as he more recently called plays for the Texans during a period wherein they routinely finished as a top 10 offense. The Ravens have saturated their team with quality players from the Texans during the last few seasons, and that will help to spread a level of familiarity in Baltimore with Kubiak's system during this off-season period of adjustment.
The Ravens didn't hit rock bottom in 2013 as they came only one quarter of one game away from reaching their 6th playoff berth in a row, but what would that have accomplished? In all likelihood, the Baltimore wouldn't have gone past the first or second round of the playoffs, and it's possible that the team would feel a false sense of accomplishment after having reached the post-season after such a rocky first 9 games. In this case it's better to watch the Ravens' playoff hopes crash and burn in order to fuel the desire within the organization to make strong enough changes to get the Ravens back to their previous state of dominance. The way I see it, that's EXACTLY what they're doing right now.
THE WISHLIST BY POSITION
Mock drafts might be thought provoking and fun for some, but they're far from accurate in most cases. I've found a much better strategy is to come up with a wishlist for a particular team. This list is achieved by first analyzing a teams' greatest draft needs by position. The second step is to evaluate the talent in the upcoming draft and rank the top 3-4 players at each of these positions of need. With enough careful thought and game tape analysis, you'll come away with a decent draft board for the first 3 rounds. There's no way to know who other teams will pick, so many players you have ranked highly may not be available when your team makes its selection. You will, however, have a good idea of who they'll pick if someone on your wishlist comes off the board. Both of the Ravens' top two draft picks from last year were in my top three, although I had Arthur Brown as their first round pick and Matt Elam or Jonathan Cyprien going to the Ravens in the second round. The picks become far less predictable as the rounds progress, but that's just part of the fun of this whole process. Let's take a look at the Ravens biggest positions of need for this season.
An argument can be made that either free safety or right offensive tackle is the biggest position of need going into 2014. The loss of Ed Reed and the lack of a true free safety replacement led to miscommunications such as that which allowed a critical Jordy Nelson touchdown in Week 6 against the Packers. Even when Matt Elam was playing his assignment correctly, he still managed to get beat deep because of less-than-adequate pass coverage skills that true free safeties possess. A good example of this came against the Bengals in Week 17 when A.J. Green absolutely toasted a stumbling Matt Elam on a 53 yard touchdown pass in the first quarter. Green experienced negligible success against the Ravens with Ed Reed lurking in the secondary, and that was even in the last two seasons of Ed's time with the Ravens wherein he was noticeably past his prime. It's clearly unfair to blame Matt Elam for not being Ed Reed, but there's no question that Baltimore needs a natural free safety to compliment the other pieces of an otherwise excellent secondary.
It's easy to point to the relative success of the Ravens defense last season and the utter LACK of success of the Ravens offense as good reasons to proclaim offensive tackle the biggest positional need heading into the draft. Michael Oher never quite became the lineman for which the Ravens had hoped, but he still gave Baltimore a good number of quality performances including fantastic pass protection during the spectacular Super Bowl run. Oher was, however, heavily penalized, and he often made inexcusable errors such as his three false starts at HOME against the Steelers last Thanksgiving night. Oher's run-blocking ability last season was atrocious and appeared to have gotten worse every year since his fantastic rookie season.
Protecting Flacco and creating holes through which the Ravens running backs can consistently run are both huge priorities if the Ravens hope to get back to the playoffs next season. With that said, however, the Ravens have already made massive and sweeping changes to their offensive coaching and player personnel including a new offensive coordinator with a totally new offensive system, an upgrade at the center position, and the return of Kelechi Osemele as a starting left guard. It is for this reason that acquiring a talented free safety must be the first priority for the Ravens in the 2014 draft. It must also be noted that the Ravens won't likely be able to pick an elite tackle (one talented enough to be able to also play left tackle) with the 17th pick in the first round, but they should be able to pick one of the two top free safeties in the draft at that point if all goes well.
I'm fairly convinced the Ravens will use their first two picks on a free safety and offensive tackle, but it's entirely possible that Ozzie Newsome will find himself staring at a draft board with remaining top talent at the wide receiver or tight end positions. This draft in particular appears saturated with receiving talent. If a receiver such as Mike Evans or a tight end such as Eric Ebron falls to the Ravens at #17, it could be too difficult to pass up the opportunity to draft such an explosive weapon to ultimately take the place of Steve Smith or Owen Daniels. The more likely scenario is that a slightly less highly touted receiver falls to the Ravens in the second round of the draft, at which point they could pull the trigger if he's the most talented player left on the board.
Some might bring up the point that the Ravens are actually quite well stocked at receiver and tight end at the moment, but might be staring serious running back depth issues in the face soon enough if Ray Rice is either convicted of a felony or at least suspended for a few games. As poorly as the Ravens running backs performed in 2013, I firmly believe both Rice and Pierce will be back in impressive form in 2014 after having rehabbed nagging injuries and become fully integrated into Gary Kubiak's offensive system. No, I would not take any running back with the third pick of this draft. The Ravens third greatest position of need is cornerback.
The Ravens lost Corey Graham and could use more talent and depth at a position so paramount to defensive success in a league that relies so heavily on aerial attacks. The Seahawks showed the incredible value of a deep, aggressive secondary as they spanked the Broncos up and down the field in Super Bowl 48. The Ravens have two top notch starting corners in Lardarius Webb and Jimmy Smith, but they'll need more depth for nickel and dime packages when facing pass-heavy teams. Ok, so that's the order of our draft priority: free safety, right tackle, and cornerback. I acknowledge that there's a chance the Ravens don't pick a cornerback with their third pick of the draft, but they do have two third round picks, and there's a good chance that one of them is an athletic corner.
FREE SAFETIES
CALVIN PRYOR- This Louisville safety plays like a Raven. His game tape shows devastating hits and a knack for forcing fumbles and making impressive, physics-defying interceptions. Pryor is a free safety, but a good majority of his highlights are of impressive plays in run support. Pryor's game tape is so impressive because of the ferocity with which he hits his opponents, but there are times where he fails to wrap up opponents or takes a bad angle and misses entirely. Pryor has great size at 6'2" and 208 pounds, but he doesn't have elite speed as he ran an official 4.58 at the NFL combine. Pryor could also find himself on the receiving end of penalty flags and fines if he makes helmet to helmet contact with receivers during his any of his violent, thunderous hits. With that said, I would be absolutely thrilled to see the Ravens pick Calvin Pryor at #17 in May. Take a look at his highlights: ULTIMATE CALVIN PRYOR HIGHLIGHTS
HA HA CLINTON-DIX- Clinton-Dix seems to be widely regarded as the best free safety in this draft. He may not hit like Pryor, make as many tackles, or force as many fumbles, but his football I.Q. is said to be quite high. This Alabama product has displayed impressive range in pass coverage which is something the Ravens sorely need going forward. Even though he doesn't have as many spectacular hits as Calvin Pryor, Clinton-Dix has far more NFL-friendly tackling style. Clinton-Dix tends to wrap up on his tackles and gator-roll in order to bring an opponent down rather than simply lowering his shoulder and trying to knock a receiver or running back out. Wrapping up and rolling is something employed by Ray Lewis quite often over his lengthy career. This not only helps to avoid fines and penalties, but it also helps to avoid injuries from dangerous collisions like those suffered by Ed Reed in the later years of his career as a Raven. You won't often see Ha Ha hitting receivers high, but instead wrapping up anywhere on the torso or around the legs. Clinton-Dix is almost exactly the same size as Calvin Pryor at 6'1" 208 pounds, and he ran an identical official 40 yard dash time at the NFL combine of 4.58 seconds. Ha Ha's superior pass coverage skills and situational recognition would likely prove highly complimentary to Matt Elam's traditional strong safety talents. If he's available at #17, the Ravens would be nuts not to take him. Take a look at this highlights: HA HA CLINTON-DIX ALABAMA HIGHLIGHTS
TERRENCE BROOKS- I loved what I saw the first time I watched Terrence Brooks' highlights. As you'll soon see, there are plenty of spectacular interceptions, great wrapped-up tackles, forced fumbles, passes defensed, and big hits. Brooks is quite fast with an official combine 40 of 4.42 (roughly the same as Torrey Smith) and that track speed converts quite well on the field as he appears quite explosive with great range. So why shouldn't the Ravens go after Brooks in the first round if Clinton-Dix and Pryor are no longer on the board? Well that's simple. Brooks is undersized compared to the two aforementioned top-tier safeties. He's 5'11" and that's not terrible, but he's also 198 pounds and only bench pressed 10 reps of 225 pounds at the combine. Bench press isn't everything, especially not for a safety, but it reflects an obvious lack of time and effort in the weight room. Brooks is built far more like a corner than a safety. I would worry about his durability given his lacking musculature and recent injury history. With all of that said, if the Ravens don't take a safety in the first round, they may be wise to trade a 3rd round pick away in order to trade UP in the second round to ensure they can snag Brooks. If he can put in the work in the weight room, Terrance Brooks could be the future of free safety for the Ravens. Take a look at his impressive highlights: ULTIMATE TERRENCE BROOKS HIGHLIGHTS
LAMARCUS JOYNER- This Florida State Seminole has one of the most entertaining game tapes to watch out of all of the safeties I've listed. It's not because he's the most physically gifted, because Joyner stands at only 5'8" and weighs a mere 190 pounds. It's simply that the guy is an athlete. He's explosive, he's great in pass coverage and run support, and he plays like he's 5 inches taller and 20 pounds heavier. If the Ravens fail to pick up Clinton-Dix or Calvin Pryor in the first round because they've opted to pick a left tackle, and if they've gone through the second and still haven't picked up a safety, then Lamarcus Joyner would actually be a great value in the third round. He could quite possibly do well at nickel corner, and despite his stature, he could be a great all-around defensive back to add depth to the Ravens secondary. He's not the guy I'd want to replace Ed Reed, but he can still clearly make a team better. I feel as though I'm rooting for Rudy Ruettiger when watching this diminutive safety take down a much bigger receiver, running back, or tight end...except Ruettiger had absolutely zero athletic talent and this guy is a friggin BEAST. Take a look at his highlights: ULTIMATE LAMARCUS JOYNER HIGHLIGHTS
OFFENSIVE TACKLES
TAYLOR LEWAN- From a talent standpoint, Taylor Lewans should not be available when the Ravens pick at #17. Because of some questionable off the field activity, however, Lewan could slide to the middle of the round. Lewan was allegedly in a bar fight last December and was charged last night in association with that incident. This University of Michigan product ran an incredibly fast official 40 yard dash at the NFL combine of 4.87 seconds. To give you some perspective, Jerry Rice ran the 40 in 4.71 seconds many years ago and he is widely regarded as the greatest (though not nearly the fastest) wide receiver in history. There's no question that Lewan is quick for an offensive lineman, and at 6'7" with 33.5 inch arms, he also has prototypical length for an offensive tackle. Lewan is only slightly undersized as far as muscle is concerned. He could use some extra time in the weight room as his lower body isn't particularly thick. With that said, what Lewan lacks in brute strength, he makes up for in speed, agility, and finesse. We can only hope that Taylor Lewan's draft stock has fallen enough for 16 other teams to pass on him, because he would likely be the last piece to the Ravens' offensive line puzzle and a great replacement for the departed Michael Oher. I don't, however, expect the New York Giants to pass on him if he's available at pick #12...but there's always hope! Take a look at how Lewan matched up against Jadeveon Clowney: JADEVEON CLOWNEY VS. TAYLOR LEWAN (2013 BOWL)
ZACK MARTIN- The Ravens have been linked to Martin in a number of mock drafts as some believe he'll be more likely available than Taylor Lewan at #17. Martin isn't quite as tall as Lewan as he stands 6'4", but he has almost identical mass at 308 pounds. Martin, like Lewan, could stand to put on 10-15 pounds of muscle, but his agility helps to make up for being slightly undersized for an NFL offensive tackle. His arm length is also only half an inch less than that of Taylor Lewan despite a 3 inch disparity in height between the two first round prospects. Martin manhandled the nation's sack leader, Trent Murphy, in Notre Dame's match-up against Standford at the end of the 2013 season. Glancing at a stat sheet, one might say that Martin's size shouldn't be an issue because Michael Oher is only 6'4" and roughly 6-pounds heavier than Martin, but I can personally attest that Michael Oher's height is under-reported (possibly on purpose) but the Ravens. In reality, Oher is easily 6'5"-6'6", but that doesn't mean Martin can't be extreme effective on the right side. Like Oher, Martin is extremely quick on his feet, and isn't far behind Taylor Lewan in talent level. It's also entirely possible that Martin could prove a better run-blocker than Oher has been recently. Martin isn't my first choice for the Ravens' first round pick, but that doesn't mean I wouldn't be happy if they pick him. If Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Calvin Pryor, and Taylor Lewan are all off the board just before the Ravens pick, it wouldn't be a bad idea for them to trade back in the first round to maybe the mid 20s in order to get another early round pick at still be able to pick up Martin. Take a look at his performance against Trent Murphy: ZACK MARTIN VS. TRENT MURPHY (NOTRE DAME VS. STANFORD)
JOE BITONIO- This Nevada product, like Zack Martin, does not possess ideal dimensions for an NFL offensive tackle. He's 6'4" and 307 pounds, but he's an excellent run blocker and surprisingly quick for an offensive lineman with an official 4.97 second 40 yard dash time. His arm length 34 inches so he does possess decent length for his height, but his technique needs some work as he tends to shoot his hands wide when in pass protection and tends not to bend as well as he probably could at times. Bitonio could stand to spend some extra time in the weight room as he only bench pressed 225 for 22 reps at the combine, and that doesn't demonstrate particularly good upper body strength. Joe isn't a first round offensive tackle, but he's a high-motor player with the work ethic that could ultimately lead to him correcting his technique errors and becoming a starter on the right side. Like Marshall Yanda, Joe often finishes his run-blocks far down field. It's quite possible that he'd be a better fit at guard, but his ability to fit in at both of these positions as well as his arm length, speed, and drive will make him a valuable asset if picked in the second or third round. It wouldn't be a terrible thing to have a speedy, great run-blocker on the right side in Gary Kubiak's running scheme. Take a look at Joe's highlights and pay special attention to his technique as he could definitely stand to lower his pad level at times, but he's quite an athlete: JOE BITONIO--2014 NFL DRAFT PROSPECT
CORNERBACKS
*It must be noted that these are not the most talented corners in the draft, but the most talented corners that I believe will be available by the 3rd round.
JASON VERRETT- I don't expect the Ravens to pick a corner in the first or even second round, but they have two picks in the 3rd round and that will give them a great opportunity to add corner depth to a secondary that lost Corey Graham in free agency. Jason Verrett of TCU possesses elite speed with an official 40 time of 4.38 seconds and excellent coverage skills. He's not ideal corner height at 5'9" at that's what makes his stock drop from 1st round talent to 2nd or 3rd round talent. Even against top teams such as LSU Verrett held his own and mostly shut down his side of the field. The Ravens already have two top notch corners with better size to put on the outside, but they could use an extremely fast, athletic corner to blanket slot receivers in coverage. He will unquestionably have to spend plenty of time in the weight room, however, as he could easily stand to gain 5-10 pounds of muscle to help his tackling ability against bigger backs and receivers as well as increase his level of durability. He's 3 inches shorter than Corey Graham, but similar in build to a young Cortland Finnegan and easily just as fast and energetic. Verrett would be a fantastic pick-up in the 3rd round. This guy flies to the ball and plays like a Raven. Take a look at this highlights: ULTIMATE JASON VERRETT HIGHLIGHTS
PHILIP GAINES- I hadn't heard of Gaines before doing my draft research, but I must say I was impressed with his highlights. Gaines possesses good height at 6'0" and BLISTERING speed with a 4.38 official combine 40 time. He's only 4 pounds heavier than Jason Verrett, but is a much heavier hitter and isn't afraid to level a receiver with a punishing blow. With that said, Philip Gaines could, like Jason Verrett, benefit from a little more time in the weight room to improve his durability, but I believe his upside is quite high. He had a whopping 35 passes defensed in the last two seasons, so I'll post one video of high highlights from 2012 and a shorter video of his highlights from 2013. This would be a good 3rd round pick-up, no question. Take a look at his highlights from 2012: PHILIP GAINES 2012 PASS BREAKUPS
Also take a look at this highlights from 2013: PHILIP GAINES--2014 NFL DRAFT PROSPECT HIGHLIGHTS
DONTAE JOHNSON- This big-bodied corner out of N.C. State may not be first round material, but he does have first round size and speed at 6'2" 200 pounds with an official combine 40 time of 4.45 seconds. He doesn't have outstanding arm length at 31 inches, and he doesn't always take great angles. Johnson had a tough time covering Sammy Watkins (as most college corners would) and although he's not undersized, he could stand to add 5-8 pounds of muscle to his long, lean frame to increase his physicality and durability. He does, however, cover tight ends extremely well and that can make him a huge asset to the Ravens. His coverage and balls skills aren't as good as Jason Verrett's, but he still possesses enough speed, size, and athleticism to ultimately make a good second or third corner. He could benefit greatly from Lardarius Webb's mentorship. This guy is a bit of a project, but you can't teach size and it's tough to teach speed. Take a look at his bowl performance against Vanderbilt: DONTAE JOHNSON VS. VANDERBILT
Mock Drafts are purely speculative fun. There's almost no way to accurately predict what each team will do, because each team's choice depends on the choices of the teams before them. Draft wishlists and positional rankings, however, are more fun for me as they go further in depth with a specific team's needs and potential pick candidates. I maintain that the Ravens biggest need is a talented, natural free safety to re-solidify the middle of the defensive backfield and complete and otherwise stacked secondary. Finding a good right tackle comes in a close second as the greatest position of need, but the Ravens have done enough to bolster their offensive line already that they shouldn't overreach in the first round if a top 3-4 tackle isn't available. They'll get much better value out of Ha Ha Clinton-Dix or Calvin Pryor than a second round tackle that could potentially be taken later in the first round or early in the second.
I know the Ravens offense was painfully anemic last year, and that would make some believe that offense should be the team's biggest draft priority. The Ravens, however, have simply made too many moves to strengthen their offense thus far and too few to address the key defensive secondary departures of the last two seasons of Ed Reed and Corey Graham. The hiring of Gary Kubiak as offensive coordinator was a massive upgrade over Jim Caldwell, and the acquisition of Steve Smith, Owen Daniels, Jeremy Zuttah, and Justin Forsett give the Ravens depth and proven playmakers at nearly every offensive position. Get ready, Baltimore, this looks like it could be easily one of the most complete teams the Ravens have ever fielded. Ed and Ray are gone, but their fierce style rubbed off on Suggs, Ngata, Webb, and Jimmy Smith. Ozzie Newsome is about due for a monumental draft, and with the talent and depth in this one, I don't think there's any way he'll miss.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
The season wasn't all bad. For a four game stretch it appeared as though the Ravens were right back to their "Team of Destiny" clutch style of heroics with triumphant wins reminiscent of the previous season's Super Bowl run. Toward the end of arguably the MOST triumphant of these wins, however, Joe Flacco's knee took a violent blow from the helmet of an opposing defender which ultimately sealed the fate of the Ravens. Suddenly a typically confident Flacco appeared terrified to step into his throws and, thus, put any pressure on his sprained knee. Joe even crumpled to the turf seemingly without reason in an embarrassing play at home against the Patriots the following week.
Instead of looking back at Joe Flacco's injury as that one critical factor that snuffed out the fire and drive of a team red-hot in the second half of the season, it's important that we look at Joe's knee injury as the impetus for change to an obviously flawed team. This wasn't the first time that Joe Flacco found himself on the receiving end of a devastating hit. Flacco was the the second most sacked quarterback in the league, and that is not a category in which a QB wishes himself to be elite. The offensive line simply wasn't doing its job, and the Ravens organization could not stand by any longer and watch their 120 million dollar investment get pummeled.
I know that the vast majority of fans wished Juan Castillo would have been tarred, feathered, and then set ablaze ceremoniously atop one of the presumably fully functional towers at the Castle/Under Armour Performance Center, but John Harbaugh had other less draconian plans for the coach that he dubbed "the finest teacher of football in the National Football League." Those plans apparently included a public decree of job security for Castillo while the Ravens let go of their previously successful running backs coach, Wilbert Montgomery, and their Super Bowl winning offensive line coach, Andy Moller. It remains unclear as to why Castillo received such a ringing endorsement and promotion after his changes to the Ravens' blocking schemes led to horrendous protection for Flacco and the worst rushing attack in Ravens history, but worries about Castillo were soon drowned out by far more exciting news.
The hiring of Gary Kubiak in the eleventh hour of an offensive coordinator search brought me great hope for the 2014 season. Not only has Gary proven himself as a head coach, but he has actually won a pair of Super Bowls as an offensive coordinator in the 1990's. Kubiak's play-calling ability is unquestionably sound as he more recently called plays for the Texans during a period wherein they routinely finished as a top 10 offense. The Ravens have saturated their team with quality players from the Texans during the last few seasons, and that will help to spread a level of familiarity in Baltimore with Kubiak's system during this off-season period of adjustment.
The Ravens didn't hit rock bottom in 2013 as they came only one quarter of one game away from reaching their 6th playoff berth in a row, but what would that have accomplished? In all likelihood, the Baltimore wouldn't have gone past the first or second round of the playoffs, and it's possible that the team would feel a false sense of accomplishment after having reached the post-season after such a rocky first 9 games. In this case it's better to watch the Ravens' playoff hopes crash and burn in order to fuel the desire within the organization to make strong enough changes to get the Ravens back to their previous state of dominance. The way I see it, that's EXACTLY what they're doing right now.
THE WISHLIST BY POSITION
Mock drafts might be thought provoking and fun for some, but they're far from accurate in most cases. I've found a much better strategy is to come up with a wishlist for a particular team. This list is achieved by first analyzing a teams' greatest draft needs by position. The second step is to evaluate the talent in the upcoming draft and rank the top 3-4 players at each of these positions of need. With enough careful thought and game tape analysis, you'll come away with a decent draft board for the first 3 rounds. There's no way to know who other teams will pick, so many players you have ranked highly may not be available when your team makes its selection. You will, however, have a good idea of who they'll pick if someone on your wishlist comes off the board. Both of the Ravens' top two draft picks from last year were in my top three, although I had Arthur Brown as their first round pick and Matt Elam or Jonathan Cyprien going to the Ravens in the second round. The picks become far less predictable as the rounds progress, but that's just part of the fun of this whole process. Let's take a look at the Ravens biggest positions of need for this season.
An argument can be made that either free safety or right offensive tackle is the biggest position of need going into 2014. The loss of Ed Reed and the lack of a true free safety replacement led to miscommunications such as that which allowed a critical Jordy Nelson touchdown in Week 6 against the Packers. Even when Matt Elam was playing his assignment correctly, he still managed to get beat deep because of less-than-adequate pass coverage skills that true free safeties possess. A good example of this came against the Bengals in Week 17 when A.J. Green absolutely toasted a stumbling Matt Elam on a 53 yard touchdown pass in the first quarter. Green experienced negligible success against the Ravens with Ed Reed lurking in the secondary, and that was even in the last two seasons of Ed's time with the Ravens wherein he was noticeably past his prime. It's clearly unfair to blame Matt Elam for not being Ed Reed, but there's no question that Baltimore needs a natural free safety to compliment the other pieces of an otherwise excellent secondary.
It's easy to point to the relative success of the Ravens defense last season and the utter LACK of success of the Ravens offense as good reasons to proclaim offensive tackle the biggest positional need heading into the draft. Michael Oher never quite became the lineman for which the Ravens had hoped, but he still gave Baltimore a good number of quality performances including fantastic pass protection during the spectacular Super Bowl run. Oher was, however, heavily penalized, and he often made inexcusable errors such as his three false starts at HOME against the Steelers last Thanksgiving night. Oher's run-blocking ability last season was atrocious and appeared to have gotten worse every year since his fantastic rookie season.
Protecting Flacco and creating holes through which the Ravens running backs can consistently run are both huge priorities if the Ravens hope to get back to the playoffs next season. With that said, however, the Ravens have already made massive and sweeping changes to their offensive coaching and player personnel including a new offensive coordinator with a totally new offensive system, an upgrade at the center position, and the return of Kelechi Osemele as a starting left guard. It is for this reason that acquiring a talented free safety must be the first priority for the Ravens in the 2014 draft. It must also be noted that the Ravens won't likely be able to pick an elite tackle (one talented enough to be able to also play left tackle) with the 17th pick in the first round, but they should be able to pick one of the two top free safeties in the draft at that point if all goes well.
I'm fairly convinced the Ravens will use their first two picks on a free safety and offensive tackle, but it's entirely possible that Ozzie Newsome will find himself staring at a draft board with remaining top talent at the wide receiver or tight end positions. This draft in particular appears saturated with receiving talent. If a receiver such as Mike Evans or a tight end such as Eric Ebron falls to the Ravens at #17, it could be too difficult to pass up the opportunity to draft such an explosive weapon to ultimately take the place of Steve Smith or Owen Daniels. The more likely scenario is that a slightly less highly touted receiver falls to the Ravens in the second round of the draft, at which point they could pull the trigger if he's the most talented player left on the board.
Some might bring up the point that the Ravens are actually quite well stocked at receiver and tight end at the moment, but might be staring serious running back depth issues in the face soon enough if Ray Rice is either convicted of a felony or at least suspended for a few games. As poorly as the Ravens running backs performed in 2013, I firmly believe both Rice and Pierce will be back in impressive form in 2014 after having rehabbed nagging injuries and become fully integrated into Gary Kubiak's offensive system. No, I would not take any running back with the third pick of this draft. The Ravens third greatest position of need is cornerback.
The Ravens lost Corey Graham and could use more talent and depth at a position so paramount to defensive success in a league that relies so heavily on aerial attacks. The Seahawks showed the incredible value of a deep, aggressive secondary as they spanked the Broncos up and down the field in Super Bowl 48. The Ravens have two top notch starting corners in Lardarius Webb and Jimmy Smith, but they'll need more depth for nickel and dime packages when facing pass-heavy teams. Ok, so that's the order of our draft priority: free safety, right tackle, and cornerback. I acknowledge that there's a chance the Ravens don't pick a cornerback with their third pick of the draft, but they do have two third round picks, and there's a good chance that one of them is an athletic corner.
FREE SAFETIES
CALVIN PRYOR- This Louisville safety plays like a Raven. His game tape shows devastating hits and a knack for forcing fumbles and making impressive, physics-defying interceptions. Pryor is a free safety, but a good majority of his highlights are of impressive plays in run support. Pryor's game tape is so impressive because of the ferocity with which he hits his opponents, but there are times where he fails to wrap up opponents or takes a bad angle and misses entirely. Pryor has great size at 6'2" and 208 pounds, but he doesn't have elite speed as he ran an official 4.58 at the NFL combine. Pryor could also find himself on the receiving end of penalty flags and fines if he makes helmet to helmet contact with receivers during his any of his violent, thunderous hits. With that said, I would be absolutely thrilled to see the Ravens pick Calvin Pryor at #17 in May. Take a look at his highlights: ULTIMATE CALVIN PRYOR HIGHLIGHTS
HA HA CLINTON-DIX- Clinton-Dix seems to be widely regarded as the best free safety in this draft. He may not hit like Pryor, make as many tackles, or force as many fumbles, but his football I.Q. is said to be quite high. This Alabama product has displayed impressive range in pass coverage which is something the Ravens sorely need going forward. Even though he doesn't have as many spectacular hits as Calvin Pryor, Clinton-Dix has far more NFL-friendly tackling style. Clinton-Dix tends to wrap up on his tackles and gator-roll in order to bring an opponent down rather than simply lowering his shoulder and trying to knock a receiver or running back out. Wrapping up and rolling is something employed by Ray Lewis quite often over his lengthy career. This not only helps to avoid fines and penalties, but it also helps to avoid injuries from dangerous collisions like those suffered by Ed Reed in the later years of his career as a Raven. You won't often see Ha Ha hitting receivers high, but instead wrapping up anywhere on the torso or around the legs. Clinton-Dix is almost exactly the same size as Calvin Pryor at 6'1" 208 pounds, and he ran an identical official 40 yard dash time at the NFL combine of 4.58 seconds. Ha Ha's superior pass coverage skills and situational recognition would likely prove highly complimentary to Matt Elam's traditional strong safety talents. If he's available at #17, the Ravens would be nuts not to take him. Take a look at this highlights: HA HA CLINTON-DIX ALABAMA HIGHLIGHTS
TERRENCE BROOKS- I loved what I saw the first time I watched Terrence Brooks' highlights. As you'll soon see, there are plenty of spectacular interceptions, great wrapped-up tackles, forced fumbles, passes defensed, and big hits. Brooks is quite fast with an official combine 40 of 4.42 (roughly the same as Torrey Smith) and that track speed converts quite well on the field as he appears quite explosive with great range. So why shouldn't the Ravens go after Brooks in the first round if Clinton-Dix and Pryor are no longer on the board? Well that's simple. Brooks is undersized compared to the two aforementioned top-tier safeties. He's 5'11" and that's not terrible, but he's also 198 pounds and only bench pressed 10 reps of 225 pounds at the combine. Bench press isn't everything, especially not for a safety, but it reflects an obvious lack of time and effort in the weight room. Brooks is built far more like a corner than a safety. I would worry about his durability given his lacking musculature and recent injury history. With all of that said, if the Ravens don't take a safety in the first round, they may be wise to trade a 3rd round pick away in order to trade UP in the second round to ensure they can snag Brooks. If he can put in the work in the weight room, Terrance Brooks could be the future of free safety for the Ravens. Take a look at his impressive highlights: ULTIMATE TERRENCE BROOKS HIGHLIGHTS
LAMARCUS JOYNER- This Florida State Seminole has one of the most entertaining game tapes to watch out of all of the safeties I've listed. It's not because he's the most physically gifted, because Joyner stands at only 5'8" and weighs a mere 190 pounds. It's simply that the guy is an athlete. He's explosive, he's great in pass coverage and run support, and he plays like he's 5 inches taller and 20 pounds heavier. If the Ravens fail to pick up Clinton-Dix or Calvin Pryor in the first round because they've opted to pick a left tackle, and if they've gone through the second and still haven't picked up a safety, then Lamarcus Joyner would actually be a great value in the third round. He could quite possibly do well at nickel corner, and despite his stature, he could be a great all-around defensive back to add depth to the Ravens secondary. He's not the guy I'd want to replace Ed Reed, but he can still clearly make a team better. I feel as though I'm rooting for Rudy Ruettiger when watching this diminutive safety take down a much bigger receiver, running back, or tight end...except Ruettiger had absolutely zero athletic talent and this guy is a friggin BEAST. Take a look at his highlights: ULTIMATE LAMARCUS JOYNER HIGHLIGHTS
OFFENSIVE TACKLES
TAYLOR LEWAN- From a talent standpoint, Taylor Lewans should not be available when the Ravens pick at #17. Because of some questionable off the field activity, however, Lewan could slide to the middle of the round. Lewan was allegedly in a bar fight last December and was charged last night in association with that incident. This University of Michigan product ran an incredibly fast official 40 yard dash at the NFL combine of 4.87 seconds. To give you some perspective, Jerry Rice ran the 40 in 4.71 seconds many years ago and he is widely regarded as the greatest (though not nearly the fastest) wide receiver in history. There's no question that Lewan is quick for an offensive lineman, and at 6'7" with 33.5 inch arms, he also has prototypical length for an offensive tackle. Lewan is only slightly undersized as far as muscle is concerned. He could use some extra time in the weight room as his lower body isn't particularly thick. With that said, what Lewan lacks in brute strength, he makes up for in speed, agility, and finesse. We can only hope that Taylor Lewan's draft stock has fallen enough for 16 other teams to pass on him, because he would likely be the last piece to the Ravens' offensive line puzzle and a great replacement for the departed Michael Oher. I don't, however, expect the New York Giants to pass on him if he's available at pick #12...but there's always hope! Take a look at how Lewan matched up against Jadeveon Clowney: JADEVEON CLOWNEY VS. TAYLOR LEWAN (2013 BOWL)
ZACK MARTIN- The Ravens have been linked to Martin in a number of mock drafts as some believe he'll be more likely available than Taylor Lewan at #17. Martin isn't quite as tall as Lewan as he stands 6'4", but he has almost identical mass at 308 pounds. Martin, like Lewan, could stand to put on 10-15 pounds of muscle, but his agility helps to make up for being slightly undersized for an NFL offensive tackle. His arm length is also only half an inch less than that of Taylor Lewan despite a 3 inch disparity in height between the two first round prospects. Martin manhandled the nation's sack leader, Trent Murphy, in Notre Dame's match-up against Standford at the end of the 2013 season. Glancing at a stat sheet, one might say that Martin's size shouldn't be an issue because Michael Oher is only 6'4" and roughly 6-pounds heavier than Martin, but I can personally attest that Michael Oher's height is under-reported (possibly on purpose) but the Ravens. In reality, Oher is easily 6'5"-6'6", but that doesn't mean Martin can't be extreme effective on the right side. Like Oher, Martin is extremely quick on his feet, and isn't far behind Taylor Lewan in talent level. It's also entirely possible that Martin could prove a better run-blocker than Oher has been recently. Martin isn't my first choice for the Ravens' first round pick, but that doesn't mean I wouldn't be happy if they pick him. If Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Calvin Pryor, and Taylor Lewan are all off the board just before the Ravens pick, it wouldn't be a bad idea for them to trade back in the first round to maybe the mid 20s in order to get another early round pick at still be able to pick up Martin. Take a look at his performance against Trent Murphy: ZACK MARTIN VS. TRENT MURPHY (NOTRE DAME VS. STANFORD)
JOE BITONIO- This Nevada product, like Zack Martin, does not possess ideal dimensions for an NFL offensive tackle. He's 6'4" and 307 pounds, but he's an excellent run blocker and surprisingly quick for an offensive lineman with an official 4.97 second 40 yard dash time. His arm length 34 inches so he does possess decent length for his height, but his technique needs some work as he tends to shoot his hands wide when in pass protection and tends not to bend as well as he probably could at times. Bitonio could stand to spend some extra time in the weight room as he only bench pressed 225 for 22 reps at the combine, and that doesn't demonstrate particularly good upper body strength. Joe isn't a first round offensive tackle, but he's a high-motor player with the work ethic that could ultimately lead to him correcting his technique errors and becoming a starter on the right side. Like Marshall Yanda, Joe often finishes his run-blocks far down field. It's quite possible that he'd be a better fit at guard, but his ability to fit in at both of these positions as well as his arm length, speed, and drive will make him a valuable asset if picked in the second or third round. It wouldn't be a terrible thing to have a speedy, great run-blocker on the right side in Gary Kubiak's running scheme. Take a look at Joe's highlights and pay special attention to his technique as he could definitely stand to lower his pad level at times, but he's quite an athlete: JOE BITONIO--2014 NFL DRAFT PROSPECT
CORNERBACKS
*It must be noted that these are not the most talented corners in the draft, but the most talented corners that I believe will be available by the 3rd round.
JASON VERRETT- I don't expect the Ravens to pick a corner in the first or even second round, but they have two picks in the 3rd round and that will give them a great opportunity to add corner depth to a secondary that lost Corey Graham in free agency. Jason Verrett of TCU possesses elite speed with an official 40 time of 4.38 seconds and excellent coverage skills. He's not ideal corner height at 5'9" at that's what makes his stock drop from 1st round talent to 2nd or 3rd round talent. Even against top teams such as LSU Verrett held his own and mostly shut down his side of the field. The Ravens already have two top notch corners with better size to put on the outside, but they could use an extremely fast, athletic corner to blanket slot receivers in coverage. He will unquestionably have to spend plenty of time in the weight room, however, as he could easily stand to gain 5-10 pounds of muscle to help his tackling ability against bigger backs and receivers as well as increase his level of durability. He's 3 inches shorter than Corey Graham, but similar in build to a young Cortland Finnegan and easily just as fast and energetic. Verrett would be a fantastic pick-up in the 3rd round. This guy flies to the ball and plays like a Raven. Take a look at this highlights: ULTIMATE JASON VERRETT HIGHLIGHTS
PHILIP GAINES- I hadn't heard of Gaines before doing my draft research, but I must say I was impressed with his highlights. Gaines possesses good height at 6'0" and BLISTERING speed with a 4.38 official combine 40 time. He's only 4 pounds heavier than Jason Verrett, but is a much heavier hitter and isn't afraid to level a receiver with a punishing blow. With that said, Philip Gaines could, like Jason Verrett, benefit from a little more time in the weight room to improve his durability, but I believe his upside is quite high. He had a whopping 35 passes defensed in the last two seasons, so I'll post one video of high highlights from 2012 and a shorter video of his highlights from 2013. This would be a good 3rd round pick-up, no question. Take a look at his highlights from 2012: PHILIP GAINES 2012 PASS BREAKUPS
Also take a look at this highlights from 2013: PHILIP GAINES--2014 NFL DRAFT PROSPECT HIGHLIGHTS
DONTAE JOHNSON- This big-bodied corner out of N.C. State may not be first round material, but he does have first round size and speed at 6'2" 200 pounds with an official combine 40 time of 4.45 seconds. He doesn't have outstanding arm length at 31 inches, and he doesn't always take great angles. Johnson had a tough time covering Sammy Watkins (as most college corners would) and although he's not undersized, he could stand to add 5-8 pounds of muscle to his long, lean frame to increase his physicality and durability. He does, however, cover tight ends extremely well and that can make him a huge asset to the Ravens. His coverage and balls skills aren't as good as Jason Verrett's, but he still possesses enough speed, size, and athleticism to ultimately make a good second or third corner. He could benefit greatly from Lardarius Webb's mentorship. This guy is a bit of a project, but you can't teach size and it's tough to teach speed. Take a look at his bowl performance against Vanderbilt: DONTAE JOHNSON VS. VANDERBILT
Mock Drafts are purely speculative fun. There's almost no way to accurately predict what each team will do, because each team's choice depends on the choices of the teams before them. Draft wishlists and positional rankings, however, are more fun for me as they go further in depth with a specific team's needs and potential pick candidates. I maintain that the Ravens biggest need is a talented, natural free safety to re-solidify the middle of the defensive backfield and complete and otherwise stacked secondary. Finding a good right tackle comes in a close second as the greatest position of need, but the Ravens have done enough to bolster their offensive line already that they shouldn't overreach in the first round if a top 3-4 tackle isn't available. They'll get much better value out of Ha Ha Clinton-Dix or Calvin Pryor than a second round tackle that could potentially be taken later in the first round or early in the second.
I know the Ravens offense was painfully anemic last year, and that would make some believe that offense should be the team's biggest draft priority. The Ravens, however, have simply made too many moves to strengthen their offense thus far and too few to address the key defensive secondary departures of the last two seasons of Ed Reed and Corey Graham. The hiring of Gary Kubiak as offensive coordinator was a massive upgrade over Jim Caldwell, and the acquisition of Steve Smith, Owen Daniels, Jeremy Zuttah, and Justin Forsett give the Ravens depth and proven playmakers at nearly every offensive position. Get ready, Baltimore, this looks like it could be easily one of the most complete teams the Ravens have ever fielded. Ed and Ray are gone, but their fierce style rubbed off on Suggs, Ngata, Webb, and Jimmy Smith. Ozzie Newsome is about due for a monumental draft, and with the talent and depth in this one, I don't think there's any way he'll miss.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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