I must first apologize for not writing my Thursday night prediction. I, like most, expected a Falcons win, but I don't think anyone anticipated THAT kind of a blowout. This week presents an interesting challenge for the Ravens. The Browns are riding high off of a home win over the New Orleans Saints last weekend, and I'm sure that win left many Ravens fans uneasy about traveling to Cleveland on Sunday. It's not as though the Browns have recently dominated the Ravens. The Ravens and Browns split their games last season with each team winning at home. Baltimore has won 11 of the last 12 meetings between these two organizations, and games against the Browns have usually felt like relatively safe victories during the Harbaugh/Flacco era. After an 8-8 2013 season and a home opening loss to the Bengals, however, it has become abundantly clear that Ravens fans are still unsure of the true strength of this year's squad. What is also unclear is exactly how strong the Browns have become.
The Browns won the last meeting between these two teams, and they did so with a mediocre former Redskins quarterback. The Browns now operate with a better quarterback, Brian Hoyer, but they also will be without their #1 wide receiver, Josh Gordon. Despite Gordon's absence, there's no question that the Browns have become significantly more productive on offense. Through two weeks the Browns have scored an average 26.5 points per game. The Browns averaged just 19.5 points per game last season, so they've improved thus far by a touchdown per game.
A two game sample is not statistically significant in comparison with an entire previous season, but what's particularly impressive is how and when they've been able to score. In their first week, the Browns were down 27-3 at halftime against the Steelers, and then they battled thunderously back in the second half to tie the game up 27-27 before the Steelers finally ended the game with a last-second field goal. The Steelers defense is clearly not what it used to be, but being able to score 27 second half point on the road at the stadium of a divisional rival is an impressive feat for the Browns no matter the state of the Steelers D. The Browns also looked offensively impressive at home against the Saints in their 26-24 win. Cleveland put up 174 yards on the ground with 26 first downs, and there was almost no time when New Orleans could truly stop the Browns rushing or passing attack.
The good news for the Ravens is that they appear to have a far superior defense to those of the Saints and Steelers. Not only did the Ravens hold the Steelers to 6 points off of two field goals in their last game, but the Ravens also held the Bengals to a single touchdown in week 1 despite ultimately losing the game. The Ravens, in fact, have given up only one touchdown on the season, and they rank 5th in the NFL in points allowed. Even more impressive is the fact that they've done so without one of their best cornerbacks and the leader of their secondary, Lardarius Webb. Webb is slated to return this Sunday along with 3rd string corner, Asa Jackson, so the Ravens defense will get a significant boost in time for their first road game of the season. The Browns will also be without their first string running back, Ben Tate, which will put the ball in the hands of rookie Terrance West. West looked impressive last week, but the Ravens have already faced two far more impressive backs in Giovanni Bernard and Le'Veon Bell, and they held both playmakers out of the endzone entirely.
The Ravens defense should handle business quite well tomorrow, but it's the offense that needs to show it can perform on the road and against a Browns defense that features serious play-makers such as Joe Hayden and Paul Kruger. I expect a Ravens win tomorrow, but it's simply too early to know of what stuff this team is truly made. Ok, now let's get to the picks!
WEEK 3 NFL PICKS
CHARGERS AT BILLS- The Chargers should feel good about beating the Super Bowl champs last week...but not nearly as good as one might think. The Seahawks lost two of their starting D lineman, and their pass rush and vaunted secondary has clearly suffered as a result. The Bills are undefeated, and held a supposedly impressive Bears offensive attack to mere 20 points IN Chicago in Week 1. I don't think the Chargers are good enough to win in Buffalo on the road, but this should be a close game. BILLS 24-21
COWBOYS AT RAMS- The Cowboys appear to have gotten back on track after a shaky Week 1 loss to the 49ers. The Rams are bad at football. COWBOYS 27-14
REDSKINS AT EAGLES- The Redskins aren't a bad football team. They should actually contend for the divisional crown this season. I like the Redskins defense much better than the Eagles defense, but the Eagles D should get a boost at home. while the Redskins offense could struggle to keep up with an Eagles offense that appears to be able to score quickly and at will. EAGLES 31-28
TEXANS AT GIANTS- TEXANS 34-17
VIKINGS AT SAINTS- The Saints have looked disappointing thus far this season. I think they underestimated exactly what Darren Sproles did for their offense. Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham can't do it all...but the Vikings are simply worse. This will be the first Saints win of the season. SAINTS 38-13
TITANTS AT BENGALS- The Titans aren't terrible, but they're also not consistent. The Bengals offense has been incredibly impressive thus far, and there's little change the Titans are strong enough to slow it down. BENGALS 28-16
RAVENS AT BROWNS- With the return of Lardarius Webb and Asa Jackson, the Ravens should be strong enough defensively to hold the Browns to field goals and give the Ravens offense plenty of opportunities to get something started. The Ravens pass protection and short passing game are much stronger this season, and that along with a strong running game should help neutralize any pass rush the Browns can muster. This will simply be a matter of Ravens receivers catching the football and executing plays. Opposing teams can no longer look to simply take away Torrey Smith in order to stop this offense. Torrey, in fact, may have his breakout game of the season considering the fact that the Browns will be looking to stop Steve Smith. There are too many Ravens weapons to be accounted for, the Ravens just need to execute and not turn the ball over. RAVENS 26-16
PACKERS AT LIONS- These are two flawed teams that won't go anywhere serious this season. In this case, I have to give the edge to the team with the better defense and home field advantage. LIONS 35-30
COLTS AT JAGUARS- The Colts are the best team in the NFL without a win. The Jaguars just straight up suck. COLTS 42-21
RAIDERS AT PATRIOTS- I think Charles Woodson said it best about his new team: "We suck." The Patriots may not have fully hit their stride yet, but Towson could beat the Raiders. PATRIOTS 33-6
49ERS AT CARDINALS- This is probably the best game of the week. The Cardinals defense isn't as strong as it was last season, but neither is that of the 49ers. The Cardinals should be able to slow the 49ers' rushing attack, but Carson Palmer is not 100%. Despite their loss to the Bears last week, the 49ers should win this game and improve to 2-1. 49ERS 23-20
BRONCOS AT SEAHAWKS- The Broncos have an atrocious pass defense. Their offense also doesn't particularly impress me. The Seahawks also aren't that impressive and can clearly be attacked through the air as was made apparent by the Chargers last week. I don't care that this game is in Seattle. This game has been circled on Peyton Manning's calendar for the better part of a year. The Seahawks' pass rushing ability simply isn't what it once was without two of its starting defensive lineman from last season. Peyton Manning is difficult to pressure because of his quick release. If the Chargers can torch the Seahawks using a big tight end, the Broncos will do the same thing with Julian Thomas. Peyton Manning is the arguably the greatest regular season quarterback in NFL history. BRONCOS 28-21
CHIEFS AT DOLPHINS- The Dolphins will take care of business at home. DOLPHINS 27-17
STEELERS AT PANTHERS- If the LIONS couldn't move the ball against the Panthers, then the Steelers DEFINITELY won't be able to move the ball against the Panthers. PANTHERS 20-10
BEARS AT JETS- The Jets aren't a bad football team this season, but the Bears have too many weapons for the Jets' secondary to handle. If the Bears can take down the 49ers, they can take down the Jets. BEARS 30-19
Scandal has rocked the Ravens organization, and I can't say that I'm not disappointed. I will, however, be happy to forget about scandal for a day and simply enjoy NFL football.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS
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