I must apologize to my readers for neglecting to publish last week's predictions. By the time I remembered to do so, the games had already started, and at that point they meant little. Little was surprising about the Ravens' win over the Panthers, but the rest of the NFL has been anything but predictable thus far. The Patriots appear offensively flawed for the first time in over a decade, the Saints look like one of the worst teams in the league, neither the 49ers or Seahawks currently lead their division, and San Diego is in front of the Broncos in the AFC West. It might be too early to say which teams are bad and which are simply getting warmed up, but certain perennial powerhouses simply don't appear to possess the personnel to make adjustments and regain their elite statuses. The Saints, for example, let far too many key pieces go in order to make salary cap room to sign All-Pro safety, Jairus Byrd, and now Byrd's season is over because of a knee injury. The Seahawks lost two top defensive linemen and have already displayed vulnerability against the Chargers and Broncos. Speaking of the Broncos, Peyton manning has a good number of weapons at his disposal, but his team simply has less offensive weapons than last season.
This season may mark a changing of the guard in NFL with the rise of teams such as the Bengals, Cardinals, and Chargers, but each passing week should offer more clarity as we approach mid-season. The Ravens have been no strangers to success, but many critics still clearly doubt Baltimore after an 8-8 2013 campaign. Almost no major sports pundits have picked the Ravens to beat the Colts on Sunday. It's true that the Colts sport the NFL's #1 ranked offense, but much of the statistics that helped to establish that ranking were accumulated against the bottom-feeding Jaguars and Titans. The Colts have exclusively beaten teams with losing records thus far, and the Colts defense has allowed an average of 30.5 points against teams with winning records. Indianapolis has operated without Arthur Jones and Robert Mathis, but more recently they lost La'Ron Landry to a totally unsurprising PED violation. If the Colts defense was already poor against serious offenses, it will be even more crippled this week. Landry currently leads the Colts secondary in tackles, and his absence should give an already potent Ravens offense more opportunities to makes plays.
The Ravens defense isn't without its own weaknesses. The secondary has displayed numerous weaknesses between the safeties and backup corners....pretty much everyone except Jimmy Smith. Andrew Hawkins of the Browns absolutely embarrassed Lardarius Webb in the only game action Webb has seen this season. A.J. Green made a circus catch over Chykie Brown and then juked Darian Stewart out of his cleats on his way into the endzone to ruin what would have been a glorious come-from-behind Ravens win against the Bengals in Week 1. Lardarius Webb has not been listed on the injury report for a couple of weeks now, but it's unclear if he's truly ready to play as he missed training camp and the preseason. The absence of an effective Webb could mean trouble for the Ravens secondary, but unlike the Colts, the Ravens have serious pass rushers to help make up for weaknesses at corner and safety. The Ravens, after all, rank 2nd in the NFL in scoring defense, and they rank first in the NFL in redzone defense. Couple that with the 2nd ranked scoring offense in the AFC and the 7th ranked offense by yardage in the NFL and you get a Ravens team that is elite on both sides of the ball. This may, in fact, be the most complete team the Colts will have faced this far.
I certainly can't blame sports analysts and pundits for predicting a Colts win, but those predictions were clearly based largely on how the Colts have performed against poor competition in the last two weeks. Had these so-called experts bothered to look a bit closer, they may have seen that the Colts only looked dominant against the 27th and 32nd ranked scoring defenses in the NFL. I'm simply not sold on the Colts. Ok, now let's get to the picks!
WEEK 5 NFL PICKS
BEAR AT PANTHERS- The Panthers defense is absolutely atrocious. BEARS 38-17
BROWNS AT TITANS- The Browns and Titans each only have one win on the season, but the Browns are clearly the better team. BROWNS 23-20
RAMS AT EAGLES- The Eagles should get back on track this week against a lackluster opponent. EAGLES 35-24
FALCONS AT GIANTS- I wouldn't get too high on the Giants after beating a divisional opponent as flawed as the Redskins. The Falcons defense, however, is nearly the worst in the league. This is an opportunity for Eli Manning to pad his stats. The Falcons have yet to win a road game this season. GIANTS 30-19
BUCCANEERS AT SAINTS- The Saints can't do much correctly, but they'll be able to beat the Bucs at home...not by much though. SAINTS 21-20
TEXANS AT COWBOYS- The Texans haven't looked bad this season, but the Cowboys have won 3 straight games. The Texans have only faced crappy teams thus far. DeMarco Murray is having a sensational season. COWBOYS 33-19
BILLS AT LIONS- After a fantastic 2-0 start, the Bills appear to have come crashing back down to earth. The Lions will exploit the 25th ranked Bills secondary. LIONS 24-17
RAVENS AT COLTS- The Ravens showed they can move the ball on the road against a solid defense when they beat the Browns in Cleveland. The Colts couldn't stop the Eagles and they couldn't stop the Broncos. The Ravens have a fantastic rushing attack and their improved passing attack should have a big day against a poor Colts pass rush and pedestrian secondary. Long drives should help keep the ball out of the hands of Andrew Luck, and the Ravens should be able to hold the Colts to field goals at some critical moments. RAVENS 33-26
STEELERS AT JAGUARS- I never thought the Steelers would lose to the Bucs, but their defense looks worse than it has in MANY years after losing 3 key starters in a costly win against the Panthers two weeks ago. Jacksonville is simply too bad to win this game, however, and Ben Roethlisberger should have the best day of his 2014 season against a defense that has allowed an average 38 points per game. STEELERS 42-19
CARDINALS AT BRONCOS- The Broncos are close to the worst in the league in pass defense, and they can't run the football. The Cardinals defense was able to hold the Chargers to 17 points. Both of these teams are coming off of bye weeks. The Broncos aren't the same without Eric Decker and Knowshon Moreno. CARDINALS 27-21
CHIEFS AT 49ERS- Good for the 49ers for beating an uncharacteristically weak Patriots team, but the 49ers won't be nearly so easy. The 49ers stop the run well enough to take away what it is that makes the Chiefs great. I expect a strong day from Frank Gore against a mediocre Chiefs run defense. 49ERS 20-17
JETS AT CHARGERS- The Jets and Browns are the best teams in the league with only one win. The Chargers passing attack will simply be too much for the Jets secondary on the road. Sorry, Gang Green. CHARGERS 28-20
BENGALS AT PATRIOTS- The Bengals offense is not perfect. It displayed issues scoring from the redzone against the Ravens, but make no mistake, this is a fast, potent O. The Patriots have struggled to score this season, and they'll struggle against the league's top scoring defense. The Patriots don't often lose at home, but they will this week. BENGALS 24-21
SEAHAWKS AT REDSKINS- The Seahawks aren't as good as they were last year, but the Redskins are so incredibly bad. SEHAWKS 34-13
If the Ravens can pull of this win, they'll begin to once again become one of the most feared teams in the league. This is the year of the Baltimore bird.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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