Thursday, September 11, 2014

RAVENS RECAP AND THURSDAY NIGHT PREDICTION

     I'd like to think that the Ravens can take away some positive points from Sunday's disappointing and confusing season opening loss to the Bengals.  A loss is always miserable in a season that consists of only 16 regular season games, but I was happy to see that it appears as though certain major flaws from 2013's team corrected in the second half against Cincinnati.  Other major flaws once again reared their ugly heads, but this is no time to panic.  It's possible that last season desensitized me to frustratingly slow offensive starts and heartbreaking late-game defensive collapses, and it's also possible that I expect (maybe unreasonably so at this point) the Ravens organization to make the necessary corrections to get back on a playoff-bound track.  The fact is that there ARE major improvements to the Ravens offense even if they took half of a football game to present themselves.  The scoring pattern may have followed last year's trend, but not for last season's reasons.  The defense struggled for much of the game as well, but there are still reasons to believe that minor tweaks and adjustments along with better and more consistent offensive production can help to bring that unit back to dominance.
     I doubt there has been a game in over a decade where Steve Smith has dropped 4 passes.  One pass was jarred lose from his hands with a solid hit, but there was another that hit him square in the hands in front of his chest and he simply couldn't catch it.  Smith more than made up for those drops with a fantastic 80 yard catch and run highlighted by Smith slinging Adam "Pacman" Jones violently to the ground en route to the endzone.  Yards after the catch and after contact are Steve Smith's forte.  Despite his diminutive height and weight, Smith possesses a startling level of strength and an impressive ability to use his opponents' size, weight, and momentum against them.  Smith's four drops on Sunday were presumably an aberration and not indication of some sort of drop-off in catching ability. 
    Both Jacoby Jones and Torrey Smith also had notable drops in the first half of the game, but they've both been known to drop an occasional pass despite explosive athleticism and blinding speed.  Torrey Smith's major drop was on a deep pass down the right sideline as he ran a go-route.  Torrey had been interfered seconds before the ball hit his fingertips, but no penalty was thrown.  Jacoby Jones' drop was far less forgivable.  Jones was wide open in the middle of the field and allowed a pass to sail between his hands and fall uselessly to the turf.  This was bad news for the Ravens and Jacoby, but it's good news going forward for another reason.  The pass Jacoby Jones failed to catch was beautifully placed despite being thrown on the run and off of Flacco's back foot.  In years past Flacco likely would have underthrown such a pass off of his back foot, but this time he showed serious precision and touch on an extremely difficult pass.
     Dropped passes were the theme of the first half of the game against the Bengals, but the second half revealed something that Ravens fans had pondered and dreamed about since the hiring of Gary Kubiak in the off-season.  The Ravens suddenly ran roughshod over the Bengals offensively, and Flacco spread the ball out to a number of different weapons including Dennis Pitta, Owen Daniels, Torrey Smith, Steve Smith, and Jacoby Jones.  The success of the passing game opened up opportunities for Justin Forsett in the running game with 70 yards and a touchdown on only 11 carries.  Suddenly the offense that couldn't move the ball 100 yards in the first half was knifing through a highly ranked Bengals defense in the second half to even take a one point lead late in the 4th quarter.  Gary Kubiak's system clearly puts offensive weapons in a position to get open and make plays--it was simply a matter of execution. 
     Joe Flacco threw for a total of 345 yards against a typically impressive Bengals defense, and that had a lot to do with his protection.  Flacco's line did give up two late sacks on the final drive of the game, but he was able to avoid serious pressure from a formidable Bengals pass rush for almost the entire 60 minutes as the offensive line held up quite well and Kubiak's system allowed Flacco to smoothly evade pressure by easily rolling out of the pocket.
     Not everything went well in the second half.  The Ravens held the Bengals scoreless until the last 5 minutes of the game when A.J. Green caught a deep pass from Andy Dalton and took it a total of 77 yards for a touchdown.  What was mind-boggling and infuriating to even slightly observant fans was the fact that Chykie Brown had been left to cover A.J. Green.  The Ravens have a top tier corner in Jimmy Smith, and Smith possesses the height, speed, and ball skills to cover and potentially shut down even a receiver as talented and athletic as Green.  With the Bengals #2 wide receiver, Marvin Jones, out and their best tight end sidelined with a dislocated elbow, why was it that Chykie Brown wasn't asked to cover backup wide receiver, Mohammed Sanu so late in the game?  The bad thing is that such a mistake shows a lack of judgement on the part of the Ravens defensive coordinator.  The good thing, however, is that Lardarius Webb SHOULD be back to play against Pittsburgh tonight and no longer will the Ravens have to use backups to cover top talent.  Chykie Brown can stay with almost any wide receiver in coverage, but he has never been able to truly master the technique of making plays on the ball instead of simply running with the receiver...but no matter because Webby knows EXACTLY how to knock down a pass.
     Beyond issues of one on one deep pass coverage, the Ravens showed vulnerability when it came to the short passing game.  Baltimore gave up major chunks of yardage to quick, precise screen passes, and those screen passes easily opened the Bengals up for inside runs.  The Ravens' only saving grace was buckling down in the redzone, but allowing long drives still serves to wear down a defense so that it gives up big plays late in the game such as the touchdown pass to A.J. Green.  The offense certainly didn't help matters by not finishing drives and keeping the defense off the field, but the defense simply couldn't halt drives and force nearly enough punts in the first half of the game.  I'd like to think that these issues were corrected in the second half and that they were mostly schematic problems rather than major personnel deficiencies, but the Ravens were facing a Bengals team playing without a full offensive staff.
     Tonight's game against Pittsburgh should give us a much better idea of how well this coaching staff adjusts defensively.  The Steelers will likely run a good amount of no-huddle offense much like that which the Bengals ran against the Ravens last weekend.  I fully expect the Ravens offense to have earlier and more frequent success against a clearly flawed Steelers offense, but the Steelers almost always defend the Ravens well regardless of how they perform against other teams.  The big question will be whether or not the Ravens defense can stop the Steelers early and often enough to give the Ravens offense enough opportunities for scoring drives and to eat up time off the clock.  Most of the national media is calling for a Steelers win.  Why shouldn't they?  The Steelers won in Week 1 and the Ravens lost, right?  Well that might be a valid point expect that the Steelers only won by a late field goal against a Browns team that once trailed by a whopping 24 points in the first half.  The Ravens lost, but at least they did so to last season's division leader.
     A major key to tonight's game is the return of Lardarius Webb.  If Webb does, in fact, return, how well will he play?  The Steelers will undoubtedly pick on him, but given his talent an experience level, that could be quite a bad idea.  Another major question mark is the play of Bernard Pierce.  Pierce did not run impressively against the Bengals and found himself on the sidelines after a fumble on what could have been a 20 yards run had he simply ran slightly to his left rather than pushing right back into heavy traffic.  The hands of the Ravens wide receivers will clearly be a major key to this and any game they play, but I'm confident they'll do a better job than last Sunday.  After all, Flacco led the league with 110 lost yards to dropped passes.  Even if he had half of that number, he'd have thrown for an even 400 yards and likely been able to score one or two more times.
     This is the night where we see what this defense with a host of new defensive pieces is able to do to an offense that features an elite quarterback and an explosive young running back in Le'Veon Bell.  If the Ravens can limit Bell and get pressure on Big Ben, this could be a dominant win.  I, however, don't expect a dominant win.  I expect a low margin of victory Ravens-Steelers slobber-knocker with victory going to the team that scores last.  I firmly believe that team will be the Ravens, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the Steelers come out on top either.

THUSDAY NIGHT PREDICTION

STEELERS AT RAVENSThe Ravens have not gone 0-2 to start a season since 2005, and they're not going to break that trend tonight.  Flacco looks on point in this new offensive system even if he did mismanage the clock at the end of the first half in that boneheaded play.  The Steelers defense gave up 27 second half points to Browns team without Josh Gordon, but the Ravens have a full array of weapons and an offensive line that protects Joe Flacco well.  The Ravens defense is still strong enough in the redzone to limit touchdowns, but the Steelers defense appeared way too slow and old last weekend.  The Steelers corners and safeties simply aren't good enough to shut down Torrey Smith, Steve Smith, Jacoby Jones, Dennis Pitta, and Owen Daniels.  RAVENS 31-26.

     If the Ravens lose this game, it's not the end of the world, but it means there are serious issues in Baltimore that need to be addressed.  The Steelers simply aren't that good, and a loss tonight means the Ravens will have their hands full with the likes of the Saints, Dolphins, Chargers, and Texans...oh and the Bengals again.  Don't panic yet, Ravens fans.  It's RAVENS-STEELERS NIGHT IN BALTIMORE!!!!

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
    
    

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