WEEK 17: A TIME TO REFLECT AND LEARN
The 2012 regular season has been quite a roller coaster for the Baltimore Ravens. The defense experienced too much turnover in the offseason to cope with the plague of injuries that descended upon literally all of its stars. On the offensive side of the ball, however, highs and lows were far more perplexing and frustrating as they had almost nothing to do with injuries. The offensive issues stemmed not from the availability of key personnel but instead from the inconsistency of Joe Flacco, the constant shuffling and poor performance of offensive linemen, and the poor play calling and offensive system of Cam Cameron. The Ravens can contend with and beat just about any team when everything clicks for its offense. The Ravens beat both teams in the last Superbowl, but got absolutely dominated by two teams that had literally never beaten Baltimore before. The Ravens went on a 3 game losing streak and lost two of those games with 4th quarter leads of a touchdown or more.
One could discuss and debate the frustrations and reasons for Ravens inconsistency this season, but I believe it to be far more productive to recognize that the Ravens won their division and analyze how their mistakes and losses could ultimately lead to improvements that allow the Ravens to make a run in the playoffs.
The Ravens already displayed a number of improvements against the Superbowl Champion Giants last Sunday. One of the most important improvements was their ability to convert 3rd downs. The Ravens coverted 11 of 18 3rd downs, and they did so in large part because of passes over the middle, something that we seldom saw while Cam Cameron was calling plays. Its not that Cam Cameron's playbook didn't include passes over the middle; it's just that he seldom called those plays. Joe Flacco's release appeared much quicker at times because the plays that Jim Caldwell called (well) allowed receivers to get open much sooner. This Ravens pass offense was, at times, reminiscent of that of the Colts with Peyton Manning years ago.
Many have criticized Joe's awareness and release speed, but it's tough to release the ball quickly when the offensive coordinator calls plays that feature so many vertical routes which require more time for receivers to get open downfield. Plays that allow receivers to get open quickly help to keep Joe Flacco on his feet. Flacco, after all, wasn't sacked once in the entire game last Sunday. Caldwell clearly understands that the Ravens offensive line struggles at times to protect the quarterback, and thus, it's imperative to make their job easier by getting the ball out of Joe's hands sooner. Variety and creativity in play calling ultimately allows the deep passing game to find success as well.
Joe Flacco was quite successful on deep passes against the Giants. The Ravens knew quite well that they could take advantage of quite a mismatch with Torrey Smith being covered by Corey Webster. Joe Flacco picked on Webster most of the game and got quite a bit of help from Smith with some rather spectaular catches. It was a relief to see Flacco and T. Smith finally get back in sync after appearing to have lost their chemistry on deep passes for the 3 weeks prior to last Sunday.
Another problem that persisted for the 3 weeks prior to last Sunday was the absence of Dannell Ellerbe. This absence became a serious issue when Terrell Suggs became injured during the Ravens' second game against the Steelers. Ellerbe's absence was felt even more when Jameel McClain came out with what turned out to be a season ending injury late in the game against the Redskins. The Ravens then found themselves in a game against the hottest team in the NFL with almost all of their starting linebackers out or playing injured. The Ravens defense struggled mightily for the first half against Manning, but the lack of depth in the linebacker corps ultimately led to a defensive collapse in the 2nd half. The Ravens proved that they couldn't stop the run as the Broncos put together a 9 minute drive that featured only running plays. It didn't matter than the Ravens KNEW the Broncos were going to run the ball because they simply couldn't stop it regardless. The return of Ellerbe against the Giants elevated the Ravens pass coverage, run stopping ability, and the pass rush.
Losing 3 consecutive games may have frustrated and terrified Ravens fans, but it forced the offense to make a major staffing change and ultimately evaluate its weaknesses. It took those very same 3 weeks for one of the Ravens' most integral defensive cogs to regain his health and return to playing shape. So if 3 weeks of losing is what it took to get rid of Cam Cameron and get healthy in time to win the division and make a playoff run, then please understand that it was all WELL worth it.
WEEK 17 NFL PREDICTIONS
Let's backtrack two weeks for a moment. Week 15 was a miserable week for my predictions. I would say that I should be ashamed of myself for going 7-9, but I think many people were caught off guard by what they saw. Who would have thought that the Giants would get totally blanked and blown out by a Falcons team that has allowed even poor teams to play them close, and who could have seen the Patriots losing at home to a rookie quarterback? Beyond those two, however, there were cases in which I simply underestimated some players and teams. I didn't think the Vikings could really do much with only Adrian Peterson playing at a truly high level--I was wrong. I also thought that the Redskins weren't good enough to beat the Browns in Cleveland without RG3--I was wrong again. Finally, I thought that the Jets would be able to minimize turnovers and beat a bad titans team with their backs against the wall and their playoff hopes riding on the game--I couldn't have been more wrong.
Week 16, however, renewed my confidence in myself. I spend more time analyzing statistics and considering recent performances, injuries, and trends. The results were quite rewarding as I went 13-3 and felt quite vindicated after predicting the Ravens defense would return to form as soon as Dannell Ellerbe returned to the field. My overall record is now 108-55. I'm now just shy of a 2-1 win to loss ratio, but I'm still quite proud of my record this season. Week 17 will unfortunately feature some games that are difficult to predict because it's impossible to know whether or not some teams are going to sit their starters. Furthermore, if those teams DO sit their starters, how many will they sit? And will their opponent sit their starters too? We won't know for sure, but we can at least look at injury reports and try to determine who teams can keep on the field and how badly they need to win (if at all). On the flip side, there are some teams that may benefit from a loss when it comes to their spot on the draft board in late April. With that said, there are still HUGE games coming up that will have MAJOR a impact on this season's playoffs. Let's take a look!
BUCCANEERS AT FALCONS- The Falcons have clinched a first round bye and and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. They would be wise to sit their starters and let the Buccaneers have their fun for the day. MY PREDICTION: BUCCANEERS 27-10.
JETS AT BILLS- This game means nothing, but the Bills are a good team at home. Not much else to this one as the Jets are too unpredictable to accurately predict, especially in such a meaniningless late-season matchup. MY PREDICTION: BILLS 17-10.
RAVENS AT BENGALS- John Harbaugh has stated that he wants to win this game. Marvin Lewis has also stated that he doesn't intend to sit his starters. It is for this reason that this game will be incredibly difficult to predict. I'm sure the Ravens will give rest to players that need it, especially on defense. They will, however, want to go full-throttle with their offense as this will be a good opportunity to get practice against one of the best defenses in the NFL on the road. Nevertheless, the outcome of this game will come down to who is playing and for how much of the game. The Ravens haven't lost to the Bengals in years, and maybe they'll play hard enough not to do so again this weekend. MY PREDICTION: RAVENS 20-17.
BEARS AT LIONS- The Lions haven't won in months and the Bears desperately need this one to potentially get a wildcard spot in the playoffs. MY PREDICTION: BEARS 21-20.
JAGUARS AT TITANS- Neither of these teams has any real interest in winning this game and I'm not entirely sure, but it may behoove the Jaguars to lose this to maximize their spot in the draft. With that said, I'm going with the home team. MY PREDICTION: 23-16.
TEXANS AT COLTS- The Colts are a good home team and the Texans have looked rather shakey for the last 5 weeks or so. The Colts will want to win this one for their returning head Coach and to maintain momentum heading into a daunting wildcard round matchup against the Ravens in Baltimore. The Texans may lose the overall first seed here. MY PREDICTION: COLTS 33-28.
PANTHERS AT SAINTS- I wouldn't ordinarily bet against the Saints in New Orleans, but the Panthers are on quite a tear recently. They've dominated the last 3 teams they've played including the Atlanta Falcons and the Chargers in San Diego. Their defense has really come alive as of late and Cam Newton is doing his best to redeem himself and get back on track for next season. MY PREDICTION: PANTHERS 31-24.
EAGLES AT GIANTS- The Giants are absolutely desperate and they need this win to even have a chance to get into the playoffs. The Eagles were playing better as of late, but it's tough to judge them on their recent performance as Nick Foles is now on injured reserve and Michael Vick will once again start on Sunday. The Giants aren't a great home team, but I have a feeling Vick will commit some rather unfortunate turnovers in a game that means very little to them. This is Eli's last stand of 2012, I'll give him my vote of confidence. MY PREDICTION: GIANTS 21-17.
BROWNS AT STEELERS- The Steelers will win this game out of pride and because Brandon Weeden is out. The Steelers will also want to avoid the shame of a losing season. MY PREDICTION: STEELERS 30-13.
RAIDERS AT CHARGERS- The Chargers will this game easily as the Raiders will presumably be without Carson Palmer and would probably lose even with him in the game. MY PREDICTION: CHARGERS 28-7.
CARDINALS AT 49ERS- The 9ers will be looking to take out their frustrations from last week against an inferior opponent to improve to 11-4-1 on the season. Even with major injuries to such players as Vernon Davis and Mario Manningham, the 49ers should be strong enough to beat down the Cardinals at home the way they know how. MY PREDICTION: 49ERS 42-14.
RAMS AT SEAHAWKS- Good luck, Rams. MY PREDICTION: SEAHAWKS 38-14 (and that could prove to be conservative).
PACKERS AT VIKINGS- Expect and incredible game from Adrian Peterson in a game that will make or break the Vikings in their quest to reach the playoffs. The Packers beat the Vikings by a touchdown in Green Bay 4 weeks ago, but both of these teams has picked up major steam since then. Green Bay, on the other hand, will lose the #2 seed to the 49ers if the 49ers win and the Packers lose. In the end, the Packers are 5-0 in their division and actually ended up with one of the stringiest scoring defenses in the league. Tough to beat Aaron Rodgers when the Packers defense gives him so many opportunities to drive. MY PREDICTION: PACKERS 28-21.
DOLPHINS AT PATRIOTS- I would love to see an upset here, but there's no way the Patriots lose this game, even if they're not playing particularly well lately. MY PREDICTION: Patriots 35-23.
CHIEFS AT BRONCOS- Not the Chiefs and not in Denver. MY PREDICTION: BRONCOS 24-7.
COWBOYS AT REDSKINS- The Redskins seem destined to make the playoffs this year. They're on a 6 game winning streak and have won the last 4 divisional games they've played. The Cowboys' offense is incredible at engineering late game drives and had an impressive overtime win a couple of weeks ago in Pittsburgh. In games such as these that could be virtual toss-ups, I give the upper hand to the home team. I can only imagine how loud and crazy FedEx field is going to be this Sunday. This one is for all the marbles...MY PREDICTION: REDSKINS 31-28.
This is a week where Ravens fans can relax and hopefully enjoy their team spread the ball out and take some chances with its offense. We should see plenty of Joe Flacco, but I would love to see Tandon Doss, Bryant McKinney, and Deonte Thompson get plenty of time on the field to show what they can do in the playoffs if needed. There are a lot of meaningless matchups this Sunday, but there just enough important games to make this an exciting final weekend in the regular season. You kept the faith, Baltimore, and you were rewarded for it.
AS ALWAYS GO RAVENS!!!!
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