This week isn't do or die for the Ravens as far as getting into the playoffs is concerned. If the Ravens lose to the Broncos but beat the Giants, they'll clinch the AFC North anyway. Hell, even if the Ravens lose to both the Broncos and Giants, if they beat the Bengals, they'll clinch the AFC North. Their 4-1 record in the division as well as an 8-2 conference record give them the tiebreakers they need to ensure that simply one more win in the next three games means they'll see the playoffs, but is that really what we want? Beating the Broncos at home is something the Ravens must do for a few huge reasons. Reason #1: The Ravens need to show that they can still outgun a legitimate team at home the way they did against the Patriots in week 3. Reason #2: The Ravens need to clinch the division early so they can sit their starters for 2 weeks before the first playoff game in Baltimore. Reason #3: The Ravens need to rally their fanbase as crowd noise and enthusiasm were surprisingly low in the last home game--and it was against the Steelers.
The Broncos, on the other hand, don't need a win in Baltimore. I'm sure they would prefer a win, but they have clinched their division, and losing may actually cause many of their starters to breathe a sigh of relief as it would mean the team would likely sit them for the remainder of the season with no reason to fight for a 3-seed instead of the 4-seed. This, however, does not mean that the Broncos will lay down for the Ravens. On the contrary, the Broncos will most likely be hoping that the 49ers can pull off an upset in New England and beat the Patriots. I sincerely doubt that will happen, but the possibility of gaining a 2-seed in the playoffs and a bye week would certainly be enough incentive for the Broncos to go all out this weekend in Charm City.
This game isn't going to come down to which team wants the win more. I wish it were that simple, but it's not. Peyton Manning has a history of beating the Ravens that dates back over a decade. The last time the Ravens beat a team led by Peyton Manning was in 2001. He has, since then, twice beaten the Ravens in the playoffs, and often humiliated or crushed the spirits of a city that once rooted for his franchise. To make matters worse, Peyton Manning's current franchise appears far healthier than the Ravens this week. For Baltimore, however, there yet remains a glimmer of hope...
The Ravens have yet to activate Ray Lewis, but the iconic middle linebacker did practice this week and it's hard for me to imagine he would sit out another week when his team's linebacker corps has become so incredibly thin. Ray's replacement during his absence, Dannell Ellerbe, practiced in limited capacity yesterday and will hopefully work his way up to full participation today after missing the last two games with an ankle injury. Ellerbe is the fastest and most athletic linebacker on the team at this point, and his pass coverage skills could prove immensely valuable against Peyton Manning's offense. Terrell Suggs was a full participant in practice yesterday and is listed as a game-time decision, but I have a feeling he'll see at least some snaps. If these three defensive stars play, then you can expect this game to be much more difficult for the Broncos.
Let's assume that two of the last three Ravens I just mentioned are good to go this weekend. The Ravens defense won't be able to shut out the Broncos because no team probably can do that. The job of the defense will be to slow the Broncos offense as much as possible and try to hold Peyton's squad to field goals. The true pressure of winning this game will fall on the offense. The 2012 Ravens offense certainly hasn't been weak by Ravens standards, and it has been typically quite strong at home. The offense will be facing one of the best defenses in the league on Sunday, but it's not a suffocating defense like that of the Seahawks or 49ers. It's an oppotunistic defense that creates a lot of turnovers and plays well enough to give Peyton Manning the ball back when he needs to score quickly.
Peyton Manning's ability to score quickly is a huge reason that the Ravens offense needs to come out firing on all cylinders. Some weapons that haven't been utilized recently should step up on Sunday. Torrey Smith needs a big game, and he needs to not only be targeted on deep passes...though connecting on one or two of those would be nice. Ed Dickson could return and his season has been slowed by injuries and a lack of targets, so this is a great time for him to show the Ravens once again why they drafted him. The Ravens will be playing without their best offensive lineman, Marshall Yanda, and that will mean either having Bobbie Williams step up or bringing Bryant McKinney back to left tackle, moving Michael Oher to right tackle, and Kelechi Osemele to right guard. The Ravens will need to give Flacco all the protection he can get against a harrowing Broncos pass-rush.
One of the things that could help to neutralize the Broncos pass-rush would be tweaking the passing game to allow Ravens receivers to get into position so that Joe can get the ball out of his hands quickly. Flacco needs to work on his pocket awareness, but it would be wise to game-plan to compensate for his tendency to hold on to the ball so long. Ray Rice should, of course be a huge part of this game, but I would like to see both #27 and fullback Vonta Leach used as receivers. Leach seems to be a first down machine in the passing game, and Rice...well we know what he can do when you throw him short passes and get him into space.
I would love to be able to accurately predict this game, but it's tough to know what to expect with so many Ravens defensive players questionable and the promotion of Jim Caldwell to the position of offensive coordinator. Almost everyone will be counting the Ravens out of this one, but you can bet that the 12th man in M&T Bank Stadium will give the Ravens as big of a homefield advantage as ever with Peyton coming to town. And hey, if they can beat the Patriots in Baltimore, why not the Broncos?
WEEK 15 NFL PREDICTIONS
Week 14 proved to be just about my worst for predictions this season, but week 13 was solid. My prediction record now stands at 88-43 and I still have a better correct pick rate than all but two of ESPN's twelve analysts...and those guys get paid for this. I have a better correct pick rate than even Accuscore--so take THAT, technology! Let's hope week 15 is good to me and I can reach or top 100 in the correct pick column.
GIANTS AT FALCONS- The Giants often really turn it on late in the season. They're fantastic road warriors and they will be facing a Falcons team that has a great record that is likely the product of a fairly easy schedule. The Falcons are one of those teams that the Giants simply know how to beat. MY PREDICTION: GIANTS 27-23.
BRONCOS AT RAVENS- This one is too early for me to predict as I do not yet know who will be starting on defense for the Ravens. I may actually have to go back and amend this prediction by Sunday, so I will possibly have to publish a retraction in the next 48 hours before the game. As it stands right now, I will be optimistic in my prediction and assume Ray Lewis, Dannell Ellerbe, and Terrell Suggs will all play as a win would mean they could potentially have two following weeks of rest. This is the Ravens regular season Superbowl. The Ravens organization showed that it would do whatever they think it'll take to win by getting rid of Cam Cameron. The Broncos will be far more rested and healthy, but they haven't looked that impressive in wins over the Chiefs and Raiders recently. Not having Willis McGahee will prove a huge factor for the Broncos in this game. Try not to think of me as TOO big of a homer for this pick as I may have to change it depending on who is ready to go for the birds. MY PREDICTION: RAVENS 34-31.
PACKERS AT BEARS- Charles Woodson will be out, but Clay Matthews returns and the Packers simply know how to beat the Bears this season...but recently a lot of teams seem to know how to do that. MY PREDICTION: PACKERS 28-21.
REDSKINS AT BROWNS- Without a healthy RG3, the Redskins haven't a prayer at winning this game. The Browns defense is currently better than the banged up, depleted defense that the Redskins faced last week, and the Redskins will have trouble stopping Trent Richardson in Cleveland. If RG3 is out, his backup will find that the Browns are far better than earlier in the season. Even if RG3 plays he won't have the speed and elusiveness required to run the offense with which the Redskins have found success as of late. Their offensive line simply isn't strong enough protect a hurt RG3 or a healthy Kirk Cousins. I might have picked the Browns even if RG3 were healthy, to be quite frank, but he's not. MY PREDICTION: BROWNS 26-17.
COLTS AT TEXANS- I might pick the Colts here if the Texans hadn't lost in such embarrassing fashion on Monday. The Texans haven't been too convincing against bad and mediocre teams as of late, and Andrew Luck has proven incredibly clutch in the 4th quarter recently, but he has also had trouble on the road this season. I'll be rooting for the Colts here, but I don't expect them to win in Houston this week. MY PREDICTION: TEXANS 37-24.
JAGUARS AT DOLPHINS- I like the Dolphins in this matchup without a ton of specific reasons. MY PREDICTION: DOLPHINS 21-17.
BUCCANEERS AT SAINTS- Drew Brees has been an interception machine in the last month, and I have a feeling most people will pick the Bucs here, but the Saints are strong at home and are a matchup problem for a Buccs team that ranks last in the NFL in pass defense. They already beat the Bucs in Tampa Bay, they'll beat them in Naaawlens if Drew can throw to HIS receivers. MY PREDICTION: SAINTS 31-23.
VIKINGS AT RAMS- Adrian Peterson is a freak and a monster, but the Vikings have only won a single road game this season and they're not going to win their second this week. MY PREDICTION: RAMS 21-10.
LIONS AT CARDINALS- The Cardinals are bad...so very bad. MY PREDICTION: LIONS 26-7.
SEAHAWKS AT BILLS- The Bills are good enough at home to keep this one close, but the Seahawks are too stout defensively to lose this game. MY PREDICTION: SEAHAWKS 20-17.
PANTHERS AT CHARGERS- I like Cam Newton even though he's had a bit of a sophomore slump, but I don't think he'll win with a cross-country trip to San Diego on the calendar this week. The Chargers showed that they can still win a game every now and then by beating the Steelers in Pittsburgh last week, and I have a feeling they'll add a check in the loss column of the Panthers this week as Norv Turner shows what he can do in order to hopefully land a job with another team next season. MY PREDICTION: CHARGERS 37-20.
STEELERS AT COWBOYS- I have a feeling that many people will pick the Steelers to win this game. I am not one of those people. The Cowboys are better than their record indicates, and DeMarcus Ware will give Ben Roethlisberger serious problems. The Steelers are playing for a playoff spot, but so are the Cowboys. I give the edge to the home team. MY PREDICTION: COWBOYS 28-20.
CHIEFS AT RAIDERS- Who even cares at this point...MY PREDICTION: RAIDERS 21-13.
49ERS AT PATRIOTS- The 49ers simply don't have the firepower to outscore the Patriots in Foxboro. If this game were at Candlestick Park then I might like their odds--but it's not. Patriots will pick off Kaepernick once or twice, but that'll only add insult to injury to a team that recently lost to the Rams. MY PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 30-17.
JETS AT TITANS- The Jets are desperate at this point. This game could go either way, but somehow I feel as though this will be one of those few games where things click for Rex's crew. The Titans are a safe pick, but I like the Jets in this one. MY PREDICTION: JETS 21-20.
I don't doubt the incredible skill and sheer intelligence of Peyton Manning. His offensive line is quite strong and will give him time to make throws (not that he requires much at all). Ed Reed hasn't tackled well at numerous times this season, but he has a habit of coming up with big plays against Peyton Manning because Manning's insistance on throwing the ball over the middle even with #20 lurking the secondary. The Broncos aren't running the ball as well as they used to, however, and that should give the Ravens offense enough opportunities to put up points. Let's see what Caldwell can do. Keep the faith, Baltimore, and get LOUD when you see #52 emerge from that that tunnel!!
AS ALWAYS GO RAVENS!!!
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