The 2012 regular season has proved deceiving at times when it has come to determining which teams are truly dominant. The season began with replacement officials that effectively skewed the NFC standings with one of the worst calls in the history of football as the Packers were cheated out of a win and the Seahawks were given a boost that may prove a major factor in reaching the playoffs. We watched offensive powerhouses that typically dominate the league begin the year with numerous losses as the replacement referees allowed defensive backs to get away with a lot of contact that would ordinarily warrant penalties. After the first four weeks, however, the regular NFL officials returned, and players, fans, and coaches watched things return to normal.
The Patriots began the season 1-2, but have since emerged as the NFL's most dominant team with a 9-1 record in their last 10 games. The Broncos certainly weren't an offensive powerhouse last season, but Peyton Manning is used to leading a team to offensive greatness. The Broncos were also 1-2, but like the Patriots, they've since emerged as arguably the NFL's second most dominant team with an identical 9-1 record during their last 10 games. The Texans, Ravens, and Falcons all began the season hot but have since been exposed in a number of ways that make many fans, writers, and commentators view them as potentially vulnerable in the playoffs. The 49ers looked brutal in some games, but perplexingly mediocre and even downright pathetic in their losses to the Rams, Vikings, and Giants. The Bear's defense appeared incredibly dominant for much of the season, but has totally fallen off a cliff in the last 5 games. Andrew Luck has led his team to a 9-4 record, but that record has been partially the result of a rather weak schedule that is about to reach the hardest stretch.
Often times the NFL features a team or two that just totally dominates the regular season from start to finish, but that simply hasn't happened this year. It has certainly made things a lot less predictable and a lot more interesting. With that said, let's take a look at which teams look the most dominant as of this week.
1. PATRIOTS- There's no way around it. They're not my favorite team, but they're clearly the best in the league at this point. They knife through even highly rated defenses with ease and have amassed an ungodly 472 points...and that's 97 points more than the next highest scoring team. The scariest part is that they've emerged as the league's best team without Rob Gronkowski for weeks now. Well Gronk is coming back this week or next, and I feel sorry for anyone in this team's path.
2. BRONCOS- It took Denver the first month or so to find its footing, but then Peyton finally took total control of this offense and truly clicked with his receivers. The Broncos don't win in as dominanting fashion as the Patriots, but that's always been Peyton Manning's style. Manning does enough to win games. He might have a poor first half or even a poor first three quarters, but his ability to manage the clock and a run no-huddle offense allows him to comeback from almost any deficit and win in spectacular fashion.
3. FALCONS- I rank the Falcons in this spot simply because of their record and nothing more. It's tough to argue with 11-2, but the recently lost to one of the worst teams on their schedule and have seldom dominated losing teams. The Falcons have, however, beaten a few strong teams and it is for this reason that I give them a 3rd place ranking.
4. 49ERS- I've been back and forth about the 49ers so far this season. They've suffocated teams such as the Jets, Bills, Cardinals, and Bears, but they've shown vulnerability against teams that simply know how to give them a hard time. The Giants have demonstrated that they simply know how to beat the 49ers in San Francisco, and the Rams are not nearly as good as the San Fran, but have seemed to also have figured out the '9ers' weaknesses. Against the rest of the league, however, the 49ers demonstrate stout defense, a tough running game, and a passing game that is improving with the rise of Colin Kaepernick. This team will face its toughest stretch in the next two weeks as they travel to New England and Seattle for tough road battles. I expect this team to finish 10-5-1.
5. GIANTS- This team, like the 49ers, has a team that simply seems to know how to beat them. Fortunately, that team almost never makes the playoffs. For the rest of the league, the Giants are a scary late season opponent. Eli Manning heats up when he feels pressure to win and has a chance this weekend to beat the last of the dominant NFC teams this weekend as the Giants travel to Atlanta. The thing that makes me rank an 8-5 team so highly is that the Giants are actually better on the road than at home. That makes it almost beneficial for them not to have a high seed in the playoffs.
6. PACKERS- The Packers should be 10-3 right now, but they haven't impressed me much this season. Aaron Rodgers has 29 TD passes but only 77 more passing yards than Joe Flacco thus far. The Packers could heat up, however, with the return of Clay Matthews. The Packers are 7-1 in their last 8 games and have owned their division.
7. RAVENS- Some people might think this ranking is too high after two losses to less than elite teams. I would agree, except that the major reason the Ravens lost the past two games was injuries to Ravens linebacker corps. The Ravens were without Dannell Ellerbe, Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and also lost Jameel McClain late in their loss to the Redskins. This week will see the return of Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and possibly Dannell Ellerbe, and that will provide a huge boost to a broken defense that was dominant for about a month not too long ago. Getting rid of Cam Cameron could provide a reasonable boost in offensive production if only because it will hopefully mean that the appropriate plays will be called in appropriate situations. If the Ravens can put up a big homestand and beat the Broncos this week, then they'll leapfrog a few teams on this list....I'm not holding my breath though.
8. COLTS- The Colts have their best chance to prove themselves as a serious playoff contender this weekend by facing the Texans in Houston. I wouldn't ordinarily expect the Texans to lose after a humiliating loss, but Houston has played close games with worst teams in the last month. Who knows? Maybe the Colts will win with a little Luck...
9. SEAHAWKS- This team has impressed me all season with its defense and talented young QB. They put on the most defensively dominant performance of the season last week and crushed the Cardinals' spirit. This team can run the ball and stop the run with a quarterback that protects the football and has a knack for touchdown passes. In other words, they're built for the playoffs.
10. BENGALS- The Bengals are making a late season push and have a chance to get a wildcard seed in the playoffs if they can beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in a little over a week. They lost a tough game to an emotional Dallas team last weekend, but they're still a very strong football team that is absolutely on the rise.
11. REDSKINS- I'm giving the Redskins this ranking because of their recent wins, not because of how good I believe they'll be this week. RG3's injury will keep him from being effective in the ways that he has been all season. I believe the Browns will beat the Skins this weekend, but I also believe RG3 will be back to full health the following week and could lead his team to a playoff birth by finishing the season strong with two wins over teams they've already beaten in the last month.
12. COWBOYS- I believe the Cowboys are a better team than the Redskins in a lot of respects, but they have trouble closing out games and won't have a healthy Dez Bryant even if he tries to play. The boys have played a ton of tough teams very closely, but their record is still 7-6. The Cowboys have won their last two games and could potentially win out if they can start by upending the Steelers this weekend.
THURSDAY NIGHT PREDICTION
BENGALS AT EAGLES- This game may not be a big showdown between major playoff contenders, but the Eagles have improved recently and could potentially kill the Bengals' playoff hopes. As a Ravens fan, I have more of an interest in this game than fans of most other teams in the league, but I have a feeling it'll be particularly exciting for anyone who tunes in to see it. I say this because Bryce Brown has been an absolutely electric runner at times in the last month, Nick Foles is improving by leaps and bounds. What could make it particularly exciting is the fact that Bryce Brown has the tendency to fumble the ball. This game could come down to a turnover or two and I expect the Bengals to be more careful with ball security. I'll be rooting for the Eagles, but this will be a tough one for them. MY PREDICTION: BENGALS 28-17.
FURTHER THOUGHTS ON FLACCO
I've heard and read an astounding amount of criticism of Joe Flacco in the last couple of days. Joe is described as having poor pocket awareness and being incredibly inconsistent. When the Ravens lose, Joe's performance typically comes under heavy scrutiny. Yes, these are things at which Joe struggles to do on a regular basis. Yes, he can appear hot and cold from one half of a game to the next. Aaaand yes, Joe Flacco is not what many would refer to as an elite quarterback. I would argue, however, that he's not as far off as a lot of people think, and the departure of Cam Cameron will go a long way to taking Joe to the next level.
The rather convenient set of statistics that might give Ravens fans reading this article hope for Joe's development are Drew Brees' stats with Cam Cameron as his offensive coordinator through his first 5 season in the NFL. Believe it or not, Brees never broke 3,600 pass yards under Cameron and only came close in one of his seasons with the Chargers. Flacco had a higher average passer rating of 86.2 during his time with Cam than Drew Brees' 84.6.
There was nothing wrong with Drew Brees' performance as a San Diego Charger, but it was his performance immediately after leaving the guidance and play-calling of Cam Cameron that proved truly astounding. Drew Brees began playing for the Saints in 2006 after the Chargers drafted and decided to go with Phillip Rivers. Brees threw for 4,418 yards during his first season in gold and black and has since never thrown for less than just under 4,400 yards. Brees has, in fact, averaged 4,732.33 yards per season in each of his complete seasons since saying goodbye and good riddance to Cam Cameron's simple system. That comes out to 298.88 yards per game during that timespan. Under Cam, Brees threw for an average 209.28 yards per game.
I certainly don't expect Joe Flacco to become an overnight sensation now that Cam Cameron is gone, but this is certainly proof of how Cam's poorly thought out system can hold back an undeniably elite quarterback such as Drew Brees and make him look--well--a lot like Joe Flacco. If the Ravens experience a lot of success in the next three weeks with Jim Caldwell calling plays, then maybe he'll stay as the offensive coordinator for next season. If not, they'll be in the market for an Andy Reid or a Norv Turner in the off-season. Either way, I refuse to believe we've seen the best of Joe Flacco, and I'm anxious to see if the Ravens can bounce back this week at home against possibly the greatest quarterback of our time.
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