Who knew that two of the NFL's most elite receivers would have season-ending injuries in a single, seemingly inconsequential game between teams with records near the worst in the league? Keenan Allen was on pace to set a single season record for sheer number of catches, and Steve Smith was on pace to pass Marvin Harrison and finish 7th on the all time career receiving yards list--Smith currently sits at 10th. Who knew that Philip Rivers would be able to complete two touchdown passes AFTER Keenan Allen went down with a lacerated kidney, and who knew that none of that would matter because Joe Flacco would ultimately orchestrate a masterful pair of drives in the 4th quarter without his still-elite, future hall-of-fame receiver? The Chargers are so incredibly decimated by injuries after last week's game that it's difficult to imagine them mounting much of a comeback in the second half of the season. The Ravens, however, pose an intriguing set of possibilities for second-half success despite the departure of easily the best wide receiver to don purple and black in Baltimore.
I must preface this paragraph by stating that the odds of the Ravens going on a winning streak and earning a wildcard spot in the playoffs don't appear particularly promising. With that said, I will ask you to throw out your preconceived notions about what kind of a record is required to make it to the playoffs in the AFC. On any given year, the bare minimum record to earn a wildcard berth is typically 9-7 or 10-6. The Ravens, for example, earned a wildcard spot in 2009 with a 9-7 record. Had the Ravens won their final game of the 2013 season, they would have earned a playoff spot with a 9-7 record yet again. In order to get to 9-7 in 2015 Baltimore would need to win 7 of their final 8 games--not an easy task. What if, however, the Ravens didn't NEED to win 9 or 10 games to get a wildcard spot this season? One thing that has been largely overlooked by sports talk radio hosts and columnists has been the fact that the rest of the wildcard contenders are doing BARELY better than the Ravens. As a matter of fact, aside from the three unbeaten AFC teams, the most wins any franchise in the AFC currently possesses is 4, and that's only 2 more than the supposedly lowly birds of Baltimore.
The biggest reason for my comparatively high optimism regarding the Ravens reaching the post-season is the strength of the schedules awaiting the other AFC wildcard contenders. The Raiders, Jets, and Steelers all have 4 wins, while the Bills, Dolphins, Chiefs, and Texans all have 3. Here's the interesting part: every single team in front of the Ravens has a tougher remaining schedule than that of Baltimore.
The Raiders have to play the Steelers in Pittsburgh this weekend, and then they play the impressive Vikings next week. Oakland has a couple of poor road opponents, but then they finish the season with the Chiefs, Broncos in Denver, the Packers, Chargers, and then the Chiefs in Kansas City. We can expect the Raiders to lose at least to the Vikings, the Chiefs at least once, the Broncos, and Packers, and there's a good chance they lose to the Steelers this weekend--that would leave the Raiders 7-9 on the season at best.
The Jets got off to an impressive start, but their season could be in serious jeopardy because of ligament damage in the throwing hand of Ryan Fitzpatrick. Beyond that injury though, the Jets will face a pair of sub par teams at home for the next two weeks in the Jaguars and the Bills, but then they face a somewhat dangerous divisional rival in the Dolphins. After the Dolphins, the Jets will face the Giants, and the Giants have proven rather explosive at times and should have Victor Cruz back healthy at that point. The Jets will almost certainly beat the Titans, but then they will have to face the Cowboys in Arlington when Tony Romo will be back healthy, and then they once again face the Patriots. The Jets go to Buffalo in the final week of the season, and road divisional games are always difficult. With the level of play that Fitzpatrick has displayed as of late with an injured hand that will not heal as long as he continues to use it, I would say the Jets will likely lose to the Dolphins, Giants, Cowboys, and Patriots. There's also a reasonable chance they lose on the road versus the Bills, but I won't give the Bills too much credit. I doubt, therefore, that the Jets will finish better than 9-7, and they could easily finish 8-8.
The Steelers, like the Ravens, had great hype building up before the season started. When healthy, they have great offensive weapons such as Big Ben, Antonio Brown, and Le'Veon Bell. Well two of those three haven't stayed healthy, and at this point Ben doesn't look fully recovered from his knee injury, and Le'Veon Bell is out for the season. Ben still has impressive weapons around him and a capable back up running back in D'Angelo Williams, but he is also staring down an incredibly difficult second-half schedule. The Steelers face a Raiders team that has just enough young talent to shock a team on any given week, and the Steelers haven't been incredible at home thus far this season. Pittsburgh then faces the Browns the next week, and both the Browns and Raiders have been known to upset the Steelers from time to time. Big Ben and company then have to go to Seattle to face a Seahawks team that isn't as good this season, but is nearly impossible to beat at home in recent years. They should beat the Colts handedly, but the Steelers then go to Cincy to face a Bengals team that just beat them in Pittsburgh, and then they face Peyton Manning and the league's best defense the next week. The Steelers then go into Baltimore two days after Christmas to face a Ravens team that will presumably be operating with its first round draft pick and that has the 7th ranked offense in the league despite having few big name weapons. The Steelers finish their season on the road in Cleveland. By my estimation, the Steelers will lose to the Seahawks, the Bengals, and Broncos, and there's a good chance they lose once again to the Ravens in Baltimore late in the season. The Steelers could also lose in an upset to the Raiders or split with the Browns. The best the Steelers will finish is 9-7, and it's more likely they'll finish 8-8 once more-- but they could easily finish 7-9. Critical injuries may once again keep this team out of the playoffs.
The Buffalo Bills are just downright bad. They still have to face quality opponents such as the Dolphins, Jets, Patriots, Chiefs, Eagles, Redskins, Cowboys, and Jets again. In all likelihood, the Bills should emerge with a record no better than 7-9 this season, and that's probably generous.
The Chiefs have looked good in their last two wins, but their remaining road schedule will make their awful start to the season difficult to overcome. The Chiefs have to go Denver next weekend, then San Diego the following weekend. They'll almost certainly beat the Bills, but then they go across country to face Oakland, and then to Baltimore to face a Ravens team that hasn't lost to them during the Flacco Harbaugh era. Without Jamaal Charles, they have lost a major element to their team, but I'll give the Chiefs credit that they've found ways to put up big points in the last two weeks with the other weapons they have. With that said, the Chiefs will most likely lose in Denver, they'll likely split with the Chargers, split with the Raiders, and I have a strong feeling they'll fall in Baltimore. Even if the Chiefs manage to beat the Ravens or sweep the Chargers or Raiders, they'll still likely lose at least 3 of their remaining games, and that'll leave them with an 8-8 record at best.
The Texans are horrendous and are only capable of beating the very worst teams in the league. Their problem is that they'll be playing some of the BEST teams in the league and plenty of teams vying for playoff spots. The Texans go into Cincinatti next week to face an undefeated Bengals team that is hungry to secure home field advantage in the playoffs. They then play the Jets, the Saints, the Bills, the Patriots, a Colts team in Indy that already beat them in Houston, and then they finish with the Titans and Jaguars. The Texans will almost certainly lose to the Bengals, the Jets, the Saints, the Patriots, and the Colts--and there's little guarantee that they even beat the likes of the Titans. This Texans team should finish with no more than 6 wins.
The Jaguars are only ahead of the Ravens in the playoff standings because they've played one less game. They will, however, lose in Baltimore in one week. This weekend they'll lose in New Jersey to the Jets. It's likely that they lose all but maybe one of their remaining games as they then face the Titans, Chargers, Titans, Colts, Falcons, Saints, and Texans. The Jaguars should finish with 4 wins on the season at best and will be nothing more than an afterthought following their loss in Charm City next week.
The Ravens do have some challenging opponents ahead of them, but they play 5 of their remaining 8 games at home, and there's a good chance that the Bengals rest their starters against the Ravens in the final week of the season as they will have already clinched their spot in the playoffs. The Ravens will, of course, face the lowly Jaguars at home after the bye week, and then they face an interesting Rams team at home. The Rams have a single road win on the season, and they won dominant wins at home against poor teams in the last two weeks. The Rams' strength has been running the football and defense, but the Ravens are fairly stout against the run when playing teams that can't throw the football. The Rams average only 179 passing yards per game. I like the Ravens to win that one. The Ravens then travel to Cleveland to face a team that they should beat handedly despite the fact that it's a road game. The Ravens were well on their way to a big win over the Browns before Webb, Dumervil, Kyle Arrington, and Will Davis all went down in the second half leaving the pass rush and secondary with almost no one no one left. Baltimore will then travel to Miami to face a tough Dolphins team, but the Ravens have never lost to the Dolphins during the Harbaugh era, and they almost certainly won't do so now that Cameron Wake is out for the season. The Ravens will face the Seahawks, Chiefs, and Steelers at home, and I expect them to beat at least two of those three teams. They then finish the season in Cincy, and even if the Bengals don't sit their starters, that should be a competitive game. The Ravens should beat the Jaguars, Rams, Browns, Dolphins, Chiefs, and they should beat either the Seahawks or Steelers. Its' difficult to predict a Ravens win over a Bengals team that already beat the Ravens narrowly in Baltimore, but we'll see how that shakes out. Speaking with homerish optimism, with the rise of young, speedy receivers and the return of an injured weapon or two, the Ravens should win at least 8 games this season. With a little luck, they could win 9. The point is that the Ravens are in no way guaranteed to get a playoff spot, but everyone in their way has a harrowing list of opponents ahead, and it's almost certain that 8-8 or 9-7 or both will earn wildcard berths. The Ravens have just as good a shot to get to 8-8 or 9-7 as any of the other teams given the circumstances.
Now I've watched every single Ravens game just as you have. I've seen the brief flashes of brilliance against various division-leading teams, and I've seen those flashes disappear with 4th quarter defensive collapses followed by failed last minute Ravens offensive rallies. I've seen the Ravens come just short of being one of the best teams in the league, and I've heard highly critical conclusions drawn as a result. By the way many people speak of our beloved team, you'd think they'd been blown out every single week of this season, but that is so incredibly far from the truth. The truth is that the Ravens, despite their monumental number of critical season-ending injuries, are still only a play or two and a player or two away from being a serious contender. Fortunate for Harbaugh and company, the Ravens might just see the arrival of a couple of game-changing integral cogs in the machine that is the Ravens offense. No, it's not the Patriots offense, and it is currently devoid of big name playmakers. Justin Forsett could be considered a big name, but he was a career backup before his breakout year in 2014. The Ravens instead possess a handful of no-name receivers and tight ends that have, on the shoulders of Joe Flacco and under the guidance of Marc Trestman, put up an average of 357.3 offensive yards per game which ranks 7th in the league. And despite a serious lack of wide receivers, Joe Flacco has managed to pass for over 2,100 yards which currently ranks him 6th in the league in that category.
By now you're probably saying to yourself that Joe Flacco couldn't possibly continue at this pace without his number one target. You may very well be correct on that point, but that would ignore the pending return of two interesting targets. If Dennis Pitta is going to play this season, we'll know by next week. There is, of course, the risk of re-injury, but I'm actually in the minority of people who believes that over a year of rehab after his surgery has been about as much as Pitta could need to be ready to give this a shot. If old #88 can come in an contribute, he'll likely do so from the slot. Pitta is a tight end, but the Ravens will likely utilize him much the way that one would ideally utilize Anquan Boldin. Pitta is a height mismatch on any defensive back and most linebackers in the league. He also excels at finding soft spots in opposing defenses, and his hands are some of the best to which Joe Flacco has ever had the pleasure of throwing. If Dennis Pitta's rehab has been comprehensive enough and he has been able to regain even close to his previous form, it's safe to say that the Ravens will gain a chain-mover after losing one less than a week ago.
Breshad Perriman is a lesser known commodity than Dennis Pitta, not because of his lack of talent, but because of the fact that he has never made a play on an NFL field in a game or even a preseason game. Perriman's college highlights speak for themselves as he demonstrated a knack for getting behind opposing free safeties and snatching the ball out of the air to complete acrobatic catches. Perriman is reportedly "weeks away" from playing, and I have to assume that means he'll begin practice next week or the week after, and he'll likely see his first actual game action on the road against the Browns or Dolphins. The Ravens likely won't need him to beat the Jaguars and Rams, but it would be fantastic, though, to get the tall, explosive target into Joe's arsenal as soon as the Ravens have to once again play in enemy territory. If there's one thing that can take advantage of Joe Flacco's arm, it's blistering, explosive, breakaway speed--and that's something the Ravens receiving corps lacked through much of the first half of this season.
Now let me be clear about something: the Ravens receiving corps is not currently devoid of speed. It has, in fact, been recently injected with a shot of speed in the form of Chris Givens and Jeremy Ross. As I've mentioned in previous posts, Chris Givens ran an elite 4.35 second forty yard dash in the 2012 NFL combine, and Jeremy Ross ran a 4.44 second official forty yard dash in his combine. To put that into perspective, Torrey Smith ran an official 4.41 forty at the 2011 combine, and Ray Rice ran an official 4.42 second forty at the 2008 combine. Givens has already demonstrated an ability to get deep behind opposing defenses with his current 19 yards per catch average. Givens caught three passes last week for a respectable 57 yards against the Chargers. Jeremy Ross has shined as a returner on special teams, but he also made a fantastic catch and run down inside the 1 yard line to set up a game-tying touchdown by Joe Flacco. These two receivers are not, of course, Steve Smith senior, but they're young, speedy, and athletic, and they have demonstrated the ability to separate from defensive backs and stretch the field to both make big plays and open up opportunities for other targets. Ironically, the Ravens achieved their only two wins when Smith Sr. went down with a serious injury. It appears as though the absence of Steve Smith as meant Flacco is forced to spread the ball out to his younger weapons rather than forcing the ball to his lone super star. You never want to lose a guy like Steve Smith, but his absence may just free Joe Flacco psychologically from using Smith as a security blanket.
I'm not betting money on the Ravens getting to the playoffs or making some magical run for the Super Bowl, but it's abundantly clear that mediocrity in the AFC aside of the three top teams will give Baltimore a solid chance to turn their season around and at least make things interesting in the second half. For now, we Ravens fans will get to kick back and enjoy watching the rest of the league beat itself up during this Ravens bye week. Let's take a look at this week's picks!
WEEK 9 NFL PICKS
PACKERS AT PANTHERS- This is a tough matchup. The Packers, as good as they've looked, don't nearly have the offensive production that many people might assume. They're efficient in that Rodgers has scored on many of the offensive drives he's had into enemy territory, but there haven't been nearly as many of those as he is used to engineering. Rodgers only has 1,598 passing yards on the season, and he has 15 touchdowns. That means for 106.5 yards, Rodgers has produced a TD. Flacco, for example, has had 2,179 passing yards and 10 touchdowns. The ratio is good for Rodgers, but he could use more yards and more TDs. On paper, the Panthers should win this game, but the Panthers have had an incredibly weak schedule thus far, and only BARELY held off a relatively weak Colts team in Charlotte last week. UGH, this one is tough. Ultimately, the Packers defense has been horrendous, especially on the road, as of late. The Packers wide receivers have also struggled to get separation in recent weeks. This will be interesting and likely close, but I have to give it to the stronger defense at home. PANTHERS 27-21
REDSKINS AT PATRIOTS- This doesn't require an explanation. PATRIOTS 33-17
TITANS AT SAINTS- The Saints offense has come alive in recent weeks. I have to hand it to Brees, he's doing a LOT without Jimmy Graham. The Titans aren't good and they won't be able to pull an upset in the Big Easy. SAINTS 42-13
DOLPHINS AT BILLS- The Dolphins WERE looking much better, but the Bills are getting Tyrod Taylor back, and Cameron Wake is done for the season--that's big. Cameron Wake's level of play prior to his injury was a major reason for the reassurance in Miami's play. Tyrod Taylor already beat the Dolphins handedly in Miami; I can't imagine he won't be able to do so at home this time around. This likely will be much closer than the 41-14 victory earlier this season. BILLS 24-20
RAMS AT VIKINGS- The Rams are a solid team, and they appear to be able to go toe to toe with anyone in St. Louis, but everything the Rams can do the Vikings can do better, and this game will be far away from Missouri. Both teams can run the football, but the Vikings have some speedy targets upon which Bridgewater can rely. The Vikings are actually built to go beyond the first round of the playoffs this season with the second ranked defense in the league and the 5th ranked running game. VIKINGS 21-17
JAGUARS AT JETS- The Jets have some issues, but I would be SHOCKED if they lost at home to the Jaguars. The Jets offense still gets enough from Chris Ivory to overcome any issues at the quarterback position when facing one of the worst teams in the league. JETS 31-23
RAIDERS AT STEELERS- Ben Roethlisberger had to shake the rust off last week, and he will be missing Le'Veon Bell for the rest of the season, but the Steelers actually have the 6th ranked defense in the league in regards to points allowed. I would LOVE to see an upset here, but Ben still has enough weapons to at least edge the up and coming Raiders. STEELERS 28-24
GIANTS AT BUCCANEERS- The Giants have a ridiculously difficult schedule going forward, and it'll be an uphill battle to make the playoffs, but they'll get Victor Cruz back after their bye week, so he'll be available for the final 6 weeks of the season. Eli Manning has played out of his mind as of late, and he'll put up enough points to win this game even if his defense isn't particularly effective. JPP is back with his deformed hand, but he'll still be an added factor in bolstering a struggling defense. GIANTS 38-31
FALCONS AT 49ERS- Blaine Gabbert? Really? Ok then. FALCONS 35-20
BRONCOS AT COLTS- This Broncos defense is about as good as defenses get this day an age with rules to protect receivers. Peyton Manning is also excellent in domes...particularly THIS dome. Andrew Luck is a great young quarterback, but he doesn't have protection or a serious enough defense to win a game like this. BRONCOS 31-23
EAGLES AT COWBOYS- The Eagles get back DeMarco Murray, and the Cowboys still don't have Tony Romo. The Eagles also get Kiko Alonso back, and that's bigger than a lot of people may realize. I gotta go Eagles in this one. EAGLES 33-28
BEARS AT CHARGERS- I don't think much of the Bears this season, and Philip Rivers will be able to put up points on anyone even without Keenan Allen. CHARGERS 28-21
THIS IS THE WEEK THE RAVENS GET HEALTHY AT EVALUATE WHAT IT IS THEY'RE GOOD AT AND WHAT IT IS THEY NEED TO STOP EVEN TRYING TO DO. BEYOND THE ELITE TEAMS, THERE ARE NO TEAMS IN THE AFC THAT ARE FAR AHEAD OF THE RAVENS IN EITHER RECORD OR POTENTIAL. THIS HAS BEEN A DISATROUS SEASON THUS FAR, BUT THIS TEAM HAS AN AGREEABLE SCHEDULE AND A FIGHTING CHANCE TO MAKE THINGS INTERESTING DOWN THE STRETCH.
DON'T GO NUTS IF IT DOESN'T WORK OUT IN THE END
BUT DON'T LOSE FAITH EITHER, BALTIMORE
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
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