When the Cleveland Browns traveled to Baltimore earlier this season the Ravens appeared to finally have a solid win ahead of them as they traveled into the locker room at halftime. John Harbaugh's guys were up 21-9 and in firm defensive and offensive command of the game. The second half, however, saw all of that disappear as a rash of injuries took away the Ravens' ability to rush the passer, cover receivers, and eventually, run the football. Baltimore couldn't create a drive on their overtime possession, and then they could do absolutely nothing to stop the Browns' drive to seal an embarrassing, depressing Ravens loss.
Fast forward to Week 8 wherein the Ravens currently find themselves once again staring down a team with minimal success this season in the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers possess one of the league's worst defenses, and that defense will further weakened by injuries to their top two tacklers. Both Manti Te'o and Eric Weddle will not suit up in Baltimore. The Ravens should, thus, be able to move the football against a team whose only wins came by three points against the Browns and by five points at home against the bottom-feeding Lions. The Ravens have been even less successful with their lone win coming against the Steelers in Pittsburgh, but the Ravens have also played 3 of their 7 painfully close games against division leaders, and two of those teams remain unbeaten. Here's the problem though: the Chargers lost to two unbeaten teams by a single score as well...on the road.
These teams have experienced such a similar lack of success this season that this game becomes much harder to predict than sports commentators and writers have made it appear. An overwhelming number of members of the sports media have picked the Ravens to win. I certainly hope they're correct, but I remember vividly the seemingly game-sealing drive in which the Ravens stalled out last season only to give the ball back to Philip Rivers with more than enough time to go right down the field and put the ball in the end zone for an incredibly narrow victory. The Ravens and Chargers are, in fact, 2-2 against the Chargers during Joe Flacco's career. Three of those four contests came right down to the wire, and both Ravens wins came on monumentally memorable plays (Ray Lewis shooting the gap on 4th down to bury Sproles in the backfield, and the legendary 4th and 29). It would, therefore, stand to reason that this game will be either thrillingly or depressingly close.
One cannot simply look at a team's record when predicting this game. The biggest keys to an accurate prediction in this case are the setting and specific match-ups. Both teams, in this case, had to travel east as the Ravens just came off of a road trip to Arizona that they SHOULD have won if not for inexcusably critical calls and non-calls by the referees. The Ravens are on a short week, but the familiarity of the home setting should help soften the blow. Baltimore, however, will once again be without its starting left tackle, Eugene Monroe #thisisgettingridiculous. Monroe's backup, James Hurst isn't particularly impressive, but he has at had a great deal of experience at the position this season and last season with Monroe's extended absences. The Ravens will otherwise be just about as healthy as they can be at this point, and their defense actually looked fairly impressive against a Cardinals offense with devastating aerial weapons last Monday.
The Chargers sport some devastating aerial weapons of their own with Keenan Allen on pace to set a single season NFL catches record. Allen, in fact, has 62 catches within the first seven weeks of the season, and he faces a Ravens pass defense that has proven vulnerable to elite receivers on a weekly basis. Fortunately for the Ravens, it appears doubtful that Antonio Gates will play considering that he didn't practice this week with a sprained knee. Gates' backup, Ladarius Green, however, has caught one touchdown pass in every game he's started this season, and he offers a formidable skill set of his own. The Ravens have actually held tight ends to surprisingly low production on the season, so we must expect the coverage issues to come on big chunk plays to speedy wide receivers such as the aforementioned Allen. The Ravens have struggled all season to prevent deep threat receivers from beating them over the top. Philip Rivers' arm makes deep passes a near constant danger. Beyond Keenan Allen, the Chargers have Malcolm Floyd averaging over 18 yards per reception, but his production has been hit-or-miss this season as he has less than 50 yards per game and has produced only a single touchdown in 2015. Believe it or not, the Chargers second leading receiver is actually the shifty running back, Danny Woodhead. Woodhead already has 37 receptions and over 400 receiving yards. Woodhead is not the feature back as rookie Melvin Gordon has taken that spot.
Philip Rivers always gives the Chargers opportunities to score quickly, but something about this week doesn't seem to scare me. If the Ravens can double team Keenan Allen and put Jimmy Smith on an aging Malcolm Floyd, the Chargers will likely struggle to sustain and finish drives. The Chargers rank 29th in the league in rushing yards per game, and Melvin Gordon has already fumbled 4 times. The Ravens have arguably the league's greatest run defender in Brandon Williams, and despite Suggs' absence, the Ravens rank 5th in the league with 20 sacks on the season. If they can manage to sack Rivers 4-5 times tomorrow (not exactly an easy task) they'll actually be on pace to finish with the same number of sacks as last season (49).
The Ravens offense sometimes stalled last week against the Cardinals, but the Cardinals boast one of the league's most impressive arrays of defensive weapons. We saw early in that game that Chris Givens was able to get open deep on Tyrann Mathieu, but Joe simply has to trust Givens' elite speed and unleash a strong throw so as to hit him in stride. Without Eric Weddle playing, expect the Ravens to take deep shots downfield to Givens early and often in order to open up the field for the rest of the Ravens weapons. Without Manti Te'o playing, expect the Ravens to run the football to maintain a balanced attack and keep the football out of Philip Rivers' hands at critical points.
I liked a lot of what I saw from the Ravens defense last week with Lardarius Webb back healthy. If he can STAY healthy for the entire game tomorrow, then the Ravens have a great shot to win this game. The Chargers can't play defense, they can't reliably run the football, and they'll be playing in Baltimore on a day where the Ravens will be honoring Ray Lewis. This may not be some sort of turning point in the Ravens' season, but it's a great opportunity for a solid win at home against a broken, flawed team. Get em, birds.
WEEK 8 NFL PICKS
LIONS AT CHIEFS- The Chiefs may not be nearly as good without Jamaal Charles, but they're adjusting to his absence and will face one of the very worst teams in the league in London on Sunday. CHIEFS 24-16
BUCCANEERS AT FALCONS- If the Falcons lose this game, they need to do a little soul searching. FALCONS 42-21
CARDINALS AT BROWNS- The Browns won't be able to move the ball much as Freeney continues to get back into form rushing the passer. CARDINALS 31-17
49ERS AT RAMS- The 49ers will be on the road and without Carlos Hyde. Let's see if poor Torrey Smith catches for less than 500 or 600 yards this season and is then cut. RAMS 35-20
GIANTS AT SAINTS- The Saints have looked good every now and then. The Giants have own 4 of their last 5 games, but they were crushed by the Eagles. When Victor Cruz gets back, the Giants will make a push for the playoffs and possibly a serious run, but the Saints should find their rhythm against a banged up Giants. SAINTS 31-27
VIKINGS AT BEARS- I don't think much of the Bears, and Stephon Diggs has added a spark to the Vikings offense. With Adrian Peterson in good shape to play, this game should be at least a narrow win for Minnesota. VIKINGS 23-21
CHARGERS AT RAVENS- The Ravens defense is beginning to heat up, and the Ravens offense now has a deep threat it can begin to utilize. The Chargers will be missing two of their top defenders, and that should mean the Ravens shouldn't have to punt more than 2-3 times. RAVENS 34-27
BENGALS AT STEELERS- The Bengals coming off of a bye week will be a tough team to beat. Big Ben won't be particularly mobile. I have gone back and forth about this one in my mind, but the Bengals should edge this one out. BENGALS 26-24
TITANS AT TEXANS- Mettenberger should be able to get something going this week. I actually like him better than Mariota. TITANS 21-17
JETS AT RAIDERS- Darrelle Revis will take away Amari Cooper and the Raiders won't be able to stop the Jets rushing attack. JETS 30-21
SEAHAWKS AT COWBOYS- Until Romo gets back, this has to be a loss. SEAHAWKS 34-21
PACKERS AT BRONCOS- Aaron Rodgers will struggle to find his rhythm early, but he spreads the ball out to well and is too mobile not to be able to score against Denver's D. PACKERS 23-20
COLTS AT PANTHERS- The Colts have occasionally put up points on good teams such as the Patriots, but the Pathers defense is strong enough to force Luck to turn the ball over multiple times. Old Andrew isn't the same with his arm injury. PANTHERS 28-24
THE RAVENS HAVE ALMOST ZERO CHANCE OF GOING TO THE PLAYOFFS AT THIS POINT, BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN THEY CAN'T FIND A WAY TO WIN GAMES AND BECOME COMPETITIVE TO BUILD UP MOMENTUM FOR NEXT SEASON. FLACCO NEEDS TO TAKE COMMAND AND FINALLY PUT TOGETHER A DOMINANT, COMPLETE GAME WITH THE WEAPONS HE HAS.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!! WIN THIS ONE FOR RAY!!!
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