COMMANDERS-RAVENS PREVIEW AND PREDICTION

I find it hard not to root for the Washington Commanders this season.  Not only are they off to a red-hot start through the first five weeks, but their rookie quarterback has lived up to his draft hype and more.  No, Jayden Daniels is not Lamar Jackson, nor does he even play with the same general style, but like Lamar, he has already immediately proven himself to be his team's unquestioned MVP.  

Comparisons of Jackson and Daniels by sports commentators are rather nonsensical.  Daniels is certainly mobile, and he is an effective and even fearless runner when the situation calls for it, but he is simply nowhere near as explosive and shifty as Lamar.  With that said, Daniels has a better, more consistent throwing motion, and this is especially evident on deep passes.  That is not to say that Lamar is a bad passer, but he still struggles to connect on passes deep downfield, and statistically he is the least accurate deep ball passer of all starting quarterbacks since he entered the league in 2018.  Lamar's specialty is, instead, darting short and intermediate passes.  Number 8 has demonstrated the ability to squeeze passes into tight windows with a compact throwing motion and a lightning-quick release.

Lamar looked like an absolute superhero against the Bengals last week with highlight reel passes whilst evading and even tossing aside defenders before throwing touchdowns that suddenly prompted many to enter him into this year's MVP discussion.  With that said, I must admit that I was still a bit jealous two weeks earlier when the the Commanders themselves faced the Bengals, and Jayden Daniels threw an utterly flawless deep touchdown pass where only Terry McLaurin could get it in the back corner of the end zone.  Daniels looked like a polished vet as he fearlessly stood in the pocket and delivered a strike with an outside linebacker bearing down upon him.  The deep passing game was the bread and butter of the Ravens offense for over a decade with Joe Flacco, and it helped to take advantage of burner wide receivers such as Torrey Smith, John "Smokey" Brown, and Mike Wallace.  For the Commanders, Jayden Daniels' ability to make virtually any throw helps to finally take advantage of the speed of Terry McLaurin, who has waited 6 years to finally catch passes from a serious quarterback.  The Ravens currently possess a solidly speedy wide receiving corps of their own with the likes of Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and Nelson Agholor, and if Lamar could finally develop good chemistry with them on go routes, a new dimension would be added to an already ferocious Ravens offense.

The Ravens offense is, in fact, so devastating at the moment, that it currently ranks #1 in the NFL by yardage with a staggering 447.6 yards per game, but it ranks 2nd in the NFL in points with 29.4 per game.  The team with the highest average points per game in the league right now is none other than the Washington Commanders with 31.  Perhaps the Ravens have played a somewhat tougher string of opponents thus far, but if we're comparing performances against a common opponent, in this case the Bengals, the Commanders actually won their game in slightly more convincing fashion.  The Ravens beat the Bengals, but they needed a botched hold on what turned into a missed Bengals field goal in overtime to do it.  There's truly no question that the Commanders have found a rhythm and an identity as an offensive power this season, and in that regard, they're quite similar to the Ravens.

Offensive might isn't the only thing these two teams have in common.  They both rank in the bottom half of the league in points allowed; the Commanders have allowed 23 and the Ravens have given up 25.2 per game.  As exciting as their respective offenses have been, because of their defensive shortcomings, both teams' respective total point differentials on the year aren't outrageously impressive.  With that said, the Commanders’ last two wins were dominant with a 42-14 victory over the Cardinals and 34-13 win over the confusingly but amusingly awful Cleveland Browns.  The Ravens have had one dominant win over a Bills team recently plagued by a rash of injuries, but every other game has been won or lost by a razor-thin margin.  The Commanders defense seems to be improving as of late, but no such luck for Baltimore.

Baltimore's secondary on paper appeared to be arguably the deepest, most talented position group on the team coming into this season.  They appeared to have excellent depth at corner and a strong pair of starting safeties, but something has simply been off.  Blown assignments and poor communication have led to calamitous breakdowns in coverage that have made the Ravens susceptible to giving up big plays.  The Ravens no longer rely on Marlon Humphrey to be their stud shutdown corner, but he's still out there and has been picked on badly at times.  I have maintained that the loss of Jadeveon Clowney in free agency was the biggest reason that 2024 Ravens defense has looked virtually nothing like the historic 2023 Ravens defense that was the first in NFL history to lead the league in sacks, fewest points per game, and turnovers.  Clowney not only consistently put fierce pressure on quarterbacks even when he didn't get a sack, he was also an elite run defender with fantastic grades by Pro Football Focus.  Clowney's departure has had far-reaching ripple effects to every level of the defense, and it doesn't help that the Ravens have a new defensive coordinator who hasn't had the start we all hoped he would.

Baltimore almost certainly won't go on a deep playoff run this season, or any season for that matter, without a strong defense, and if they're going to right the ship on that side of the ball, this would be the week to prove it against the top scoring offense in the league coming off of two blowout wins.  Baltimore has a history of terrorizing rookie quarterbacks, but this quarterback isn't playing like a rookie.  The Commanders, however, will be without a critical piece to their offense when they take the field on Sunday.  Starting running back Brian Robinson Jr. will be out with a knee injury.  This is a significant loss as Robinson has already had 5 rushing touchdowns and 325 rushing yards this season.  Austin Ekeler will be the starting back, and he's no slouch, but it would have been far better for the Commanders to head into Charm City with a full array of weapons.

The Ravens will be without two defensive starters in Malik Harrison and Broderick Washington, but they're mostly healthy otherwise.  Both teams are quite healthy compared to the rest of the league right now, so whichever team emerges victorious will do so knowing it beat a top 10 opponent in the league that entered a he game at nearly full strength.  

PREDICTION

This isn't much of a road game for the Commanders from a travel distance standpoint even though it will be in a loud road environment. M&T Bank stadium will undoubtedly have a sizeable number of Commanders fans to neutralize out the crowd noise advantage a bit.  The Ravens defense might look stout in the first half as it has against numerous other opponents this season, but the Commanders will likely make this a close, high-scoring contest with a good chunk of their production coming in the second half .  The deciding factor, however, will be the Ravens ability to control the ball with a healthy dose of Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson spreading the ball out to more receiving weapons than any team could reasonably attempt to cover.  The Commanders could do everything they can to contain Lamar and load up the box to stop Derrick Henry, but Lamar will simply shred them with Zay Flowers, Isaiah Likely, Rashod Bateman, Justice Hill, and perhaps a timely catch or two for Mark Andrews.  This one will be close, but the Ravens offense appears to simply have more options and a better ability to control the clock.

RAVENS 38-31

A loss for either team this week won't be devastating, but this game will tell us much about the true strength level of both franchises .  The only tragedy is that this isn't going to be a primetime game.  Who knows? Perhaps this will usher in a renewed local rivalry…

POST-GAME REACTION - BILLS BLASTED IN BALTIMORE

     

 I must admit that I told at least a couple of friends I believed the Buffalo Bills would beat the Ravens in a high-scoring shootout 34-28, but I am absolutely THRILLED my instincts were way off in this instance.  Early season games are often incredibly difficult to predict as the pool of data from which one must draw conclusions is particularly shallow.  After all, if the first three weeks of the season were any indication, Baltimore's defense would have fallen apart in the second half at the hands of Josh Allen who has been playing at an MVP level thus far.

There were even moments Sunday night where Allen flashed his elite talent such as his 52 yard pass he completed on the run whilst being shoved out of bounds. The Bills scored only moments later to pull within 11 points, and Ravens fans and possibly even some players undoubtedly felt pangs of deja vu after Baltimore blew sizeable second half leads in the previous two weeks.  Thankfully a couple of major factors turned the game's momentum right back in favor of the Ravens, and hopefully these are signs that the organization has made critical adjustments that will carry into subsequent weeks.

The first factor was Baltimore's ability to generate pressure in the second half even when they were dropping 6 into coverage.  One of the television commentators described it well when he said, in so many words, that the Ravens are only rushing 5 players per down, but you don't know exactly which 5 players they will be.  Disguising the blitz and relentlessly pressuring Josh Allen to throw on the run even late in the game kept Buffalo from ever getting into a sustained passing rhythm.  Throw in a back-breaking strip-sack from this season's defensive MVP thus far, Kyle Van Noy, and the Ravens front 7 helped tremendously to take pressure off of a secondary that had previously been exposed every week up to this point.

The second factor was the Ravens' ability to keep their foot on the gas in the second half and complete enough scoring drives to to leave their opponent hopeless enough to bench its starting quarterback with over 7 minutes left in the game.  Todd Monken has clearly improved the way the team utilizes Derrick Henry's immense talent with major tweaks to blocking assignments and better play calling.  Henry is unquestionably a future hall-of-famer and the most productive running back of the last 10 years, but he has never had the lateral quickness and burst of a smaller back.  Instead, Henry requires plays that allow him to take a handoff with a full head of steam or catch a pass out into space where he then has the opportunity to accelerate to top speed.  Once King Henry's strides get long, especially if he's reached the second level, he becomes painfully difficult to stop or bring down.  The Ravens have, in other words, finally got the hang of using their new weapon.

As dominant as Baltimore's rushing attack was, there were numerous pivotal drives that would have stalled out were it not for timey completed passes on 3rd down to keep the chains moving.  It is highly unlikely that any particular Ravens receiver will amass a pro bowl-level receiving yards total this season, and that will undoubtedly be frustrating for players such as Rashod Bateman and even Mark Andrews who both need to make a statement to justify a serious contract following this season in Baltimore or wherever else they might end up.  For the sake of the team's success, however, relying on the running game and spreading passes out to many targets is unquestionably a better recipe for success as it makes the Ravens harder to defend.  Long gone are the days where an opposing defense needed only to double-team Mark Andrews and contain Lamar Jackson to slow down Baltimore's offense.  Now teams can't simply key in on Lamar because they have to buckle up their chinstraps and load up the box in desperation to try to stop Derrick Henry and Justice Hill.  Oh, and if a teams tries to double any single Ravens receiver, Lamar has plenty of others who are more than capable of getting open, making defenders miss, and even going up to secure contested catches.  Zay Flowers is undeniably Baltimore's best wide receiver, but Rashod Bateman and even Nelson Agholor are big targets with whom Lamar continues to build chemistry.  Add in Isaiah Likely to the mix who happens to be incredibly explosive for a tight end, and include Derrick Henry and Justice Hill as pass-catching running backs, and you've got one of the most complete stables of receiving weapons in the league even without a top-tier target that anyone would describe as a true #1 wide receiver.

As much as I would like to continue to heap praise on the Ravens after their dominant performance over a team many believed to be the best in the AFC if not the league coming into tonight, it must be pointed out that the Bills were missing a significant number of defensive starters for the past two weeks.  Injuries are certainly part of the game, but a dominant offensive performance should be considered at least somewhat less predictive of success in future weeks when it came against an opponent that limped into a primetime game on the road.  Baltimore may still struggle going forward against defenses with elite pass rushing defensive linemen and outside linebackers the way they did against Chris Jones in Week 1 and Maxx Crosby in Week 2.  Pittsburgh, for example, has pass rushers coming from every direction, and Lamar has only managed to beat them once in his entire career.

Despite the Bills' defensive injuries, the Ravens defense still stepped up big-time at critical moments to stop one of the NFL's hottest offenses from mounting a comeback in the second half, and that must be seen as significant progress.  Lamar and company travel to Cincinnati next week to face an underwhelming Bengals team that still should not be taken lightly as they possess divisional familiarity and a pair of dangerous wide receivers in Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase.  A win in Cincy and perhaps a little help from a desperate Cowboys team that has the weapons to potentially upset the Steelers, and the Ravens could find themselves tied for the lead in their division after an unusually disappointing start to the season.

I acknowledge that John Harbaugh is the leading candidate to be tarred and feathered in Charm City thus far this year for his ill-advised challenges and utter lack of clock management skills, but I would be remiss if I neglected to point out that during his tenure as head coach, the Ravens have often bounced back after losses and even strings of losses.  In 2012, for example, the Ravens dropped 3 straight games after starting the season red-hot with a 9-2 record through the first 11 weeks.  Harbaugh made the wise but also daunting decision to fire his offensive coordinator after a 4th quarter collapse against the Redskins, and that move led to their clinching a playoff berth the next week against the then reigning Super Bowl Champion Giants.  Perhaps a pair of frustrating early losses was exactly what was needed to prompt necessary adjustments and turn this team back into a dominant force similar to last year's regular season juggernaut.  

Following next week's game against the Bengals, the Ravens will host the surprisingly hot Commanders squad.  Baltimore typically feasts on rookie quarterbacks, but Jayden Daniels isn't playing like a rookie at all.  Daniels looks more and more an elite veteran with each passing week, and this was evidenced today by Daniels leading his team to a suffocating 42-14 win against the Cardinals.  Obviously the Cardinals are not considered an elite team, but many of the throws Daniels has made this season would be spectacular completions over any secondary in the league.  The Commanders defense also appears to improve each week.  It is tough not to root for the likes of Daniels and Terry McLaurin given how long that franchise has searched for a real quarterback, but when the Commanders come to Baltimore in two weeks, it's all business.  Like next week's Bengals game, the following game against Washington will tell us much about exactly how good this Ravens team is.  After all, a 35-10 win might feel triumphant, but in the NFL a win is a win no matter the score, and a big victory carries absolutely no weight as to the the outcome of the next game.  Enough celebration--it's time for the birds to get back to work!

CAN THE RETURN OF YANNICK NGAKOUE HELP THE RAVENS DEFENSE REGAIN ITS FORM?

There is no question that Ravens fans felt some level of cautious optimism following Sunday’s road win over Dallas. Lamar Jackson’s incredible record against NFC teams improved to 21-1, and the Ravens as an organization improved to 6-1 against the Cowboys. The Ravens offense looked ferocious at times as their rushing attack, led by Derrick Henry, rumbled for a total of 274 back-breaking yards, and the Ravens offense overall totalled 456 yards on the day. Baltimore also managed to hold Micah Parsons and the entire Cowboys defense without a single sack, which was a monumental improvement over their inability to stop Maxx Crosby a week earlier. The Ravens offense even managed to close out Sunday’s game with a timely first down off of an impressive carry by Lamar. One would expect with 28 points, no turnovers, and nearly 35 minutes of possession, that this game would not be remotely close—hell, they even had a 22 point lead going into the 4th quarter. 

John Harbaugh said last week that the Ravens needed to find their offensive identity, and perhaps they did, but they unfortunately also found their defensive identity, which happens to be utterly collapsing in the second halves of games.  The Ravens defense has looked so dominant at times in the first halves of games this season that it’s tempting to wonder if they’ve regained their mojo, but their pass defense is dead last in the league in yards allowed, and while it’s tempting to blame it on poor coverage late in games, the bigger glaring issue appears to be the almost total disappearance of the pass rush as the game wears on. 

There are undoubtedly schematic corrections for the Ravens new defensive coordinator Zachary Orr must make to attempt to address the disappearance of the pass rush late in games, but he can only work with the personnel he has been given. Just as the Ravens were forced by salary cap limitations to let veteran offensive linemen go, so too were they unable to afford to retain Jadeveon Clowney. Many questioned what Clowney had left in his figurative tank when he signed with Baltimore in the 2023 offseason, but that was mostly because they looked purely at his sack numbers and neglected to examine other telling statistics such as his QB pressures and his grade against the run. Clowney was actually an elite run defender coming into Baltimore, but his pass rushing presence helped elevate everyone around him even when he was not the one recording a sack. Clowney’s disruptive presence is certainly missed thus far in 2024.

Eric DeCosta is seldom one to sit on his hands when the Ravens display glaring deficiencies at one position or another. He has shown himself to be far more aggressive with free agent acquisitions and trades during the season than Ozzie Newsome ever was. One such trade was with the Minnesota Vikings in 2020 for Yannick Ngakoue. Yannick logged a disappointing 3 sacks during his short stint in Baltimore, but he proved immediately thereafter that Baltimore simply failed to utilize him correctly by totaling 10 sacks in 2021 with the Raiders and then 9.5 sacks with the Colts in 2022. Yannick only logged 4 sacks in 2023, but his season was cut short and limited to 13 games because of a broken ankle. 

Despite an already fairly lengthy 9-year career, Ngakoue is still only 29 years old, and because his season-ending injury was just a broken bone instead of a torn ligament or tendon, it is not unreasonable to expect the veteran to still have a fair degree of the quickness and burst he displayed in 2021 and 2022. His veteran presence could help provide mentorship to a host of young defensive starters, but more importantly, he could provide the depth and spark needed to reignite the Ravens pass rush late in games.

The pass rush certainly is not the only missing piece to the Ravens’ puzzle in their quest to regain last year’s dominant form, but it would help to cover up other defensive deficiencies and end opponents’ drives sooner. Eric DeCosta and John Harbaugh will  also be forced to address Justin Tucker suddenly becoming the actual worst kicker in the league, and they will doom the team if they cannot end the failed Daniel Faalele experiment and start the correct players on the right side of the offensive line. With that said, acquiring Yannick Ngakoue is definitely a solid first step. 

Stay tuned later this week for a Week 4 preview!

WEEK 3 NFL PICKS AND CHIEFS-RAVENS PREVIEW

      The first week of Purple Nightmare picks went about as well as one could have hoped.  We went 13-1 with the lone incorrect outcome from Monday night's Saints-Raiders game, but I shouldn't pat myself on the back too enthusiastically as most of last week's games were not terribly competitive matchups.  This week, however, appears to be a far greater challenge.  As I look over the schedule for the week, nine games jump out at me as fairly evenly matched, and thus, difficult to predict.  Mind you, we're still in the first quarter of the season, so we have such a limited sample of statistics from which to derive conclusions.  We shall, nevertheless, press on and see which teams emerge as true contenders by the end of the week.

         No game will be as highly anticipated as the Chiefs-Ravens game on Monday night.  Both teams are not only unbeaten but also led by sensational young quarterbacks that appear on track to be the future premier rival AFC gunslingers for years to come much the way Tom Brady and Peyton Manning held that position for roughly a decade and a half.  Oddly enough, Lamar and Patrick aren't so different from Peyton Manning and Tom Brady even if their play styles contrast heavily.  Tom Brady led his team to a Super Bowl and won Super Bowl MVP in his first season as a starter.  Patrick Mahomes led his team to Super Bowl victory in his second season as a starter, and he too took home MVP honors after the game.  Peyton Manning won league MVP twice early in his career before finally reaching and winning a Super Bowl against the Bears in early 2007.  Lamar won league MVP in his first full season as a starter, but like Peyton Manning, has struggled in the post season early in his career thus far.  That doesn't mean he can't break that trend this season, but one must admit that there are curious similarities between the two pairs of stars.  

     Like Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes is guided by a head coach whose system tends to help mold and elevate young quarterbacks.  Lamar's head coach is no such guru, but he certainly hired one in Greg Roman.  Roman has a knack for designing a playbook around the talents of athletic quarterbacks.  He coordinated Colin Kaepernick to a Super Bowl that the 49ers came yards away from winning, and he guided Tyrod Taylor to a season that earned Pro Bowl honors in 2015 when Roman was offensive coordinator of the Buffalo Bills.  I must admit that after last post-season's first round playoff exit, I wondered if Lamar simply couldn't win a game when he had to come from behind.  When playing with a deficit, most teams are forced to largely abandon the run and rely upon the passing game to score quickly while conserving the clock.  It didn't appear as though Lamar was at the stage in his development last season that he could put the team on his back and come back against a Titans team that found success chewing up the clock with a strong rushing attack from Derrick Henry.  It easily also could have had to do with drops and poor performance from his receiving targets, but for whatever the reason, the Ravens just couldn't seem to put the ball in the endzone often enough last post-season.

     Week 1 of the 2020 season certainly showed that Lamar Jackson is capable of taking over a game with his arm when a team has committed to stopping the Ravens rushing attack.  It must be noted that the Browns secondary was missing notable starters, and the Ravens likely knew they were going to spend most of the afternoon attacking Cleveland's apparent weakness.  As luck would have it, the Chiefs suffered injuries to defensive pieces as of late, and without defensive end Alex Okafor, starting defensive tackle Khalen Saunders, and starting cornerback Charvarius Ward, the Chiefs were weakened to the point where they were taken to overtime by an unquestionably inferior Chargers team.  It seems reasonable to conclude that if the Chargers can take the Chiefs into overtime, the Ravens should be able to do significantly better.  The Ravens' biggest worry will be slowing down the Chiefs explosive offense.  Patrick Mahomes can make every conceivable throw, and he has no shortage of impossibly fasts target to which to distribute the football.   The Ravens have two top-level cornerbacks, but they'll need more than that to slow down a Chiefs offense that also boasts an all-world tight end.  The Ravens can't expect to keep the Chiefs out of the end zone most of the day the way they did with the Texans and Browns, but they can aim to outscore Mahomes and company if they can simply force a handful of key stops with a turnover or two added into the mix.

     The Chiefs succeeded in taking away the Ravens rushing attack last season, and Lamar struggled to mount drives until there wasn't quite enough time to truly overcome the deficit.  Greg Roman will always try to establish the run, but if the Chiefs commit to stopping it early this time around, Roman knows he can trust Lamar to attack the Chiefs' uneven secondary.  The strategy for this week may very well be to use the pass to open up the run rather than the other way around.  The beautiful thing is that Lamar finally appears ready and more than capable of attacking a defense no matter where it appears weakest.

      The Chiefs are not nearly the only team dealing with key injuries.  Major and season-ending injuries swept across the league last Sunday, and they must be taken into account as we examine each upcoming contest.  For the Ravens, last Sunday saw the loss of starting nickel corner, Tavon Young, but many other teams lost even more pivotal players.  The Giants lost Saquon Barkley while the 49ers lost Nick Bosa to an ACL tear and could be without Jimmy Garoppolo for the foreseeable future due to a high ankle sprain.  The Broncos were hit equally hard with the loss of Von Miller and the 3-5 week loss of starting quarterback Drew Lock. One has to wonder if the shortened, unconventional off-season contributed to the calamitous rash of early injuries, but I suppose there is no way to draw definitive conclusions.

      I write this as I watch the Dolphins unexpectedly suffocate the Jaguars.  I had planned to pick the Jaguars to win, so we'll count this one as a loss in the predictions column.  With that said, let's get to the picks!

WEEK 3 PREDICTIONS

BEARS AT FALCONS-  The Bears had a single player listed on their injury report this week.  The problem is that he is one of the top 5 defensive players in the NFL.  Khalil Mack was limited in practice for the second straight day, but I would be shocked if he didn't play on Sunday.  The Bears are 2-0, but I was not exactly blown away by either of their wins.  Most recently the Bears squeaked by a Giants team that lost Saquon Barkley.  The Falcons, on the other hand, lost an impossibly frustrating game to the Cowboys last week with a score that I've never seen in a professional football game before: 40-39.  The Falcons seem content to just not play defense, but do not believe the bears will be able to keep up with the Falcons from an offensive standpoint.  Old Matty Ice is finally going to win won.  FALCONS 31-27

RAMS AT BILLS- The Rams showed they can go on the road and annihilate another NFC team last week with a 37-19 win over the Eagles in Philly.  The Bills, meanwhile, held their own in wins over two of their 3 divisional opponents, but neither one of those was the Patriots.  One thing is for sure, the Bills defense does not appear to be nearly as strong as the thunderous unit from last season against which even Lamar Jackson and company struggled to consistently move the football.  Despite their undefeated record thus far, I'm going to need to see more from the Bills before I can pick them to beat another undefeated team like the Rams.  RAMS 27-20

WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM AT BROWNS- The Browns have enough playmakers to shred a secondary as thin as Washington's.  The team formerly known as the Redskins mustered a thunderous pass rush in Week 1 to come from behind and beat the Eagles, but their secondary was still repeatedly exposed.  The Skins do not have defensive backs capable of shutting down Jarvis Landry and OBJ.  They'll have enough trouble dealing with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to take pressure off of Baker Mayfield and offer the third ear QB some clean shots deep downfield.  BROWNS 28-14

TITANS AT VIKINGS- It's difficult to see the Vikings stopping the Titans.  They have yet to put the brakes on any opponent, and the Titans are red-hot.  TITANS 38-20

RAIDERS AT PATRIOTS- The Patriots will take a big step up this week.  They lost an impossibly close game in Seattle last week, and although the Raiders looked strong in their win over the Saints, I also don't believe the Saints are an elite team anymore.  This one will be close though. PATRIOTS 34-27

49ERS AT GIANTS- The 49ers are without Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, and Nick Bosa, and the Giants are without Saquan Barkley. The 49ers are going on the road against a bad team, but they're probably missing too many integral cogs in their system to win a game right now.  GIANTS 20-14

BENGALS AT EAGLES- In a matchup between two winless teams, it would make sense to give an edge to the home team, but the Bengals have been highly competitive in both of their losses, while the Eagles have been beaten like a drum.  I'm not sure how this team has fallen so hard from a Super Bowl win in the recent past.  They even made the playoffs last season.  Joe Burrow will find his footing and Joe Mixon will rumble for 100+ yards in the first win for Cincy in 2020.  BENGALS 26-17

TEXANS AT STEELERS- The Texans have some nice receivers and a talented young quarterback, but their offensive line won't be able to give him enough time to find open receivers against this Steelers defense.  The Steelers barely beat a wounded Broncos team last week, but they'll continue to get better as Ben Roethlisberger continues to round back into form.  STEELERS 28-14

JETS AT COLTS- This is one of the few easy predictions.  The Jets don't have enough around Darnold to make an honest go of this season.  The Colts aren't Super Bowl contenders, but they'll win 8 games.  COLTS 31-20

PANTHERS AT CHARGERS- The Chargers took one of the top teams in the league down to the wire last weekend, and the Panthers have had an embarrassing start to the season.  It's tough to imagine the Panthers traveling all the way across the country to get their first win against an objectively better team.  CHARGERS 21-17

BUCCANNERS AT BRONCOS- The Bucs will continue to improve this week over a severely wounded Broncos team.  Brady might even finally find rhythm with Gronk.  BUCCANEERS 35-21

LIONS AT CARDINALS- The Lions are atrocious again, and I maintain my lofty opinion of the Cardinals from the beginning of the season.  I don't know whether to characterize Matthew Stafford's career as a mountain of wasted potential or a total farce...or both.  Either way, they're not going on the road and upsetting one of the top teams in the league.  Kyler Murray will find more rhythm through the air this week.  CARDINALS 24-13

COWBOYS AT SEAHAWKS- Russell Wilson is playing at too high a level right now to lose a home game to a team that just gave up 39 points to the Falcons.  The Cowboys look as though they'll likely win  the absolute worst division in the league, but they'll win that division with 8-9 wins--tops.  This will still be a close one. SEAHAWKS 33-30

PACKERS AT SAINTS- Aaron Rodgers is still an elite quarterback, and he appears to be gunning for MVP honors thus far.  Drew Brees is no longer that guy, but he has impressive weapons.  This will almost certainly be the NFC's shootout of the week.  I don't expect a ton of defense to be played, and the game likely won't be decided until final 2-4 minutes.  PACKERS 38-35

CHIEFS AT RAVENS- The loss of Tavon Young certainly hurts the Ravens as they face one of the fastest offenses in the league.  The ace up the Ravens sleeve will actually be their former top shutdown corner, Jimmy Smith.  Jimmy possesses the length and strength to be able to both jam and cover Travis Kelce.  Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters will be tasked with covering Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins, while Anthony Averett will likely cover Demarcus Robinson.  Averett is the weak link in this chain, but I worry more able safety play against the elite speed of the likes of Hill.  Chuck Clark is solid in coverage, but DeShon Elliot still struggles at times despite his willingness to lay the wood at a level that Earl Thomas simply isn't capable or willing at this point in his career.  Patrick Mahomes' ability to throw accurately on the run will make life incredibly difficult to a Ravens defensive front that has already struggled to get consistent pressure on lesser quarterbacks.  With that said, the Chiefs defense doesn't possess a J.J. Watt or even a Whitney Mercilus type player to present problems to Lamar.  The Ravens can attack the Chiefs defense in ways they couldn't manage to last year, and they're just as explosive as the Chiefs, if not more so.  The major difference will be the Ravens ability to get several key stops and 1-2 pivotal turnovers.  This is a Ravens defense that has already limited a host of high-level receivers over the first two weeks of this season.  This will be a tougher test, but Baltimore is currently the more complete team.  RAVENS 31-24

GET READY FOR THE WAR OF THE WEEK ON MONDAY NIGHT!

AS ALWAYS

GO RAVENS!!!

     

WEEK 2 NFL PICKS

      I sit here writing these as we watch the Browns take it to the clearly useless Bengals, and I must apologize for not having released these in time to have predicted the outcome of that game prior to it beginning.  For what it's worth, I would have picked the Browns, but in a much closer game.  

     Cleveland's offense clicking on a short week answers some questions I had following Sunday's blowout loss to the Ravens.  The Browns are, as I mentioned several days ago, absolutely loaded with top tier weapons.  Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb are two of the best backs in the league and they happen to be on the same team. Neither Odell Beckham Jr. nor Jarvis Landry needs any introduction. The question that remained after Sunday was whether or not Baker Mayfield simply isn't good enough to get these weapons the ball, or if the Ravens defensive backfield is truly as good as advertised.  Considering how little pass rush the Ravens got from Matt Judon and Jaylon Ferguson, I think it's safe to say that the 83 yards that Landry and Beckham Jr. combined to total on 16 targets are a testament to the elite coverage skills of Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters--oh, and it doesn't hurt to have a healthy Tavon Young back too.  That trio is easily the best group of corners in the NFL (fight me), and the fact that Hunt, Landry, Beckham Jr., and Chubb were all kept out of the end zone in a 38-6 rout last weekend means the glaring issues with the Ravens probably aren't as worrisome as I may have thought.  After all, that same Browns offense is currently up 28-13 as I type this.

    The Bengals are also not exactly devoid of playmakers.  Joe Mixon, A.J. Green, Giovanni Bernard, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, and John Ross offer a level of speed and elusiveness that on paper should scare teams.  Joe Burrow has also displayed some talent despite likely going 0-2 in his first two starts.  I fully expect the Bengals to find themselves at the bottom of the AFC North by the end of the season, but they've got more than enough to build around within the next few years.  Bottom line: the Browns and Bengals each have a host of weapons and young talent at the quarterback position that should allow them to both prove at least solid teams this season, and the Ravens are likely just that much better. 

    I can't say the Texans showed much in their first game to scare the Ravens, but this Sunday's game will show how the Ravens are able to perform in their first road matchup.  The Texans no longer possess one of the most explosive wide receivers in the league as DeAndre Hopkins is now an Arizona Cardinal, and his presence last year did not seem to mean much as Houston was blown out in a trip to Baltimore.  That isn't to say there aren't still formidable receivers on the Texans roster.  Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb, Kenny Stills, and Will Fuller are all quality targets, but they didn't exactly light it up against a Chiefs secondary that possesses far less clout than that of Baltimore's.  David Johnson had a solid performance on the ground with 77 rushing yards on 11 carries, but his yards per carry average over the past three season has been an underwhelming 3.6.  The Ravens will face an unquestionably better quarterback in DeShaun Watson than they did last week with Baker Mayfield, and this will be a chance for the Ravens edge rushers to redeem themselves against an elusive target.  It will also be a chance for the Ravens rushing attack to find its footing and help grind clock late if Baltimore finds itself with a lead.

     The one AFC North team I have yet to mention has a good opportunity to show that it can do more than just pull away late from the rebuilding New York Giants.  The Steelers host a Broncos squad that just lost a painfully close game to the Titans.  This is a game the Steelers absolutely should win, but how they perform will tell us much about their potential to contend for the AFC North Crown that they relinquished two years ago.  Big Ben is still a wily playmaker, and the Steelers defense may be one of the top if not the top unit in the league this season.  I reserve my judgement for a larger statistical sample size before making that pronouncement because it's still the same defense that lost to the Ravens backups last year 28-10 when their playoff hopes were on the line and Baltimore rested its starters.  That same Steelers defense allowed Gus Edwards to rumble for 130 yards on the ground without Lamar on the field to present a threat to run the ball himself.  With that said, having Ben Roethlisberger back to sustain and finish drives does much to keep a defense rested, and James Conner and/or Benny Snell Jr. should be able to take enough pressure off Ben and help chew up clock.  I can't say at first glance that I believe this Steelers team to be as explosive as it was a few years ago with Antonio Brown and Le'veon Bell, but the defense is certainly improved to the point where they appear to be getting back to the old Pittsburgh formula for success of a strong rushing attack and being hard-nosed on the other side of the ball.  Not that I don't enjoy the Ravens sweeping Pittsburgh, but it honestly would be nice to see Ravens-Steelers get back to violently aggressive slugfests decided by a field goal in the waning moments.  Ok, let's get to the picks!

WEEK 2 NFL PREDICTIONS

GIANTS AT BEARS- The Bears had a nice road win last week over the Lions, and Mitch Trubisky had a decent enough showing to convince me that they'll be able to grind out a solid win over the Giants this Sunday. BEARS 24-17

FALCONS AT COWBOYS- Despite having the player with the greatest name in the NFL, Younghoe Koo, the Falcons are a constant disappointment.  Matt Ryan has had faaaar too many elite receiving weapons over the course of his career to be this inconsistent.  The Falcons have never struck me as a team that travels particularly well, and they allowed Russell Wilson to be too successful through the air last week to let me believe they'll be able to slow down Dak and company on the Cowboys' turf.  Tough to envision much defense in this matchup.  COWBOYS 33-27

LIONS AT PACKERS- Aaron Rodgers appears so incredibly motivated by his franchise drafting his presumptive successor that he began the season showing why he's still unquestionably elite.  The Lions are starting a 147 year old man at running back, and don't give me any reason to believe they can go into Green Bay and win this game.  PACKERS 38-20

JAGUARS AT TITANS- I was rather shocked that the Titans only barely edged the Broncos last week, and though Tennessee is the overwhelming favorite to win this game, I have a feeling it'll be far closer than their fans would prefer.  TITANS 20-17

VIKINGS AT COLTS- I thought the Colts might look decent with Philip Rivers out there--I was mistaken.  Rivers threw a single touchdown and a pair of picks last week, and it might take him a little while to really develop chemistry with this receiving corps after spending a decade and a half with another team.  The Vikings produced enough offense to win most football games last week, but they allowed a dismal 43 points.  It's hard to believe how hard the Vikings defense has fallen from the scariest unit in the league only a few seasons ago to the disaster that took the field last week.  Let's just have some fun and say that this is a week that Philip Rivers wins a shootout at home.  COLTS 35-28

BILLS AT DOLPHINS-  The Bills are too strong up front on both sides of the ball and too defensively stout to lose to a Dolphins team that managed to put up 11 points in their opener last week.  BILLS 23-13

49ERS AT JETS-  It's kind of difficult to know what to make of the 49ers after a season-opening loss to the Cardinals, but I also believe the Cardinals are going to be a serious Super Bowl contender this season with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins and as Kyler Murray continues to develop.  The Jets simply don't have serious weapons surrounding Sam Darnold.  They vastly overpaid for an overrated (that's right, I said it) aging Le'veon Bell, and their receiving corps is filled with no-name players and draft busts.  49ERS 31-14

RAMS AT EAGLES- There was a point last weekend where it looked like the Eagles were a solid team trouncing a perpetually rebuilding Washington Football Team.  That simply didn't last long.  Carson Wentz found himself running from his life, and it's tough to assume Aaron Donald and company won't be able to harass him to no end as well.  I don't, however, expect this to be a blowout. RAMS 24-20

BRONCOS AT STEELERS-  I am not nearly as high on the Steelers as some people I know, but theit defense should be able to limit the Broncos to under 20 points, and the offense will find its rhythm in the second half.  Losing Von Miller was a big deal, and it likely killed any shot the Broncos had of being some kind of surprise playoff team.  STEELERS 30-17

PANTHERS AT BUCCANEERS- I have made it no secret that I don't expect this group of thrown-together big names to suddenly turn into a Super Bowl contender.  Tom Brady has already been on a serious decline for two years coming into this season, and that was all within a finely-tuned system with which he was familiar on an unprecedented level in football terms.  Losing on the road to the Saints is no reason to hang one's head, but the WAY Brady lost was rather telling.  With that said, the Panthers likely don't have the defensive clout to stop the Buccaneers from eventually getting into a rhythm and mounting 3-4 successful second half scoring drives.  Allowing the Raiders to score 34 points on them at home last week didn't exactly instill confidence.  BUCCANEERS 35-24

REDSKINS AT CARDINALS- The Redskins showed some impressive ability to get to the quarterback last week, but their secondary looked unimaginably bad.  The Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins connection should be off the charts today, and the Cardinals will further solidify their status as one of the best teams in the NFC.  This doesn't mean the Redskins won't still win some games; they just happen to be traveling across country to play one of the best teams in their conference.  CARDINALS 27-17

CHIEFS AT CHARGERS- The Bengals just allowed the Browns to score 35 points.  The Chargers barely beat those same Bengals 13-10.  The Chargers simply won't be able to hang with the Kansas City offensively.  CHIEFS 42-16

RAVENS AT TEXANS- The Ravens will be seriously challenged soon, but it won't be this week.  The Texans will give solid effort for about the first 3rd of this game, but they looked utterly confused facing the Ravens last season, and they haven't upgraded their roster enough to give me reason to believe they'll be any different this season.  They do still have some solid receivers, but the Ravens shut down a pair of elite receivers last week.  Fortunately for Baltimore, both Ronnie Stanley and Jimmy Smith returned to practice over the course of the week and appear ready to go.  Coach Greg Roman was not please with the ground attack last week, and I expect him to give plenty of carries to J.K. Dobbins after the rookie scored two touchdowns in his NFL debut.  We'll see how this balanced attack compares with what the Chiefs were able to do to the Texans in Week 1, but I also expect the Ravens defense to limit the Texans much more effectively than the Chiefs.  RAVENS 31-13

PATRIOTS AT SEAHAWKS- Cam Newton did a nice job of getting back to winning in Week 1, but Russell Wilson has been my objective favorite quarterback in the league for years, and he has never been afraid to face the Patriots defense.  This will be Wilson's 4th time facing the the mind of Bill Belichick, and Bill has only come out on top once--it just happened to be in the Super Bowl.  Newton is not yet to the point in that system where he can lead several rapid scoring drives like Brady did for years.  Wilson, on the other hand, is more than capable of doing exactly that at home, and he's even done it against the Patriots more than once.  I don't enjoy it when the Seahawks have beaten the Ravens in the past, but I otherwise love to watch Russell Wilson play and am happy to see Lamar developing into a similar type of duel threat player.  This is still a strong Patriots defense though, so I don't expect and utter blowout.  SEAHAWKS 26-20

SAINTS AT RAIDERS- They may have beaten up on the Buccaneers at home, but the Saints typically struggle as a road team.  The Raiders are a bit banged up with injuries to their starting right tackle and his backup.  The Saints are unquestionably a better team, but they're going to struggle to pull away in this game. SAINTS 24-21

     We're still in the opening month of the NFL season, and no appreciable amount of statistics currently exists to really make more educated predictions, but we'll have fun seeing which teams emerge over the next few weeks as true playoff contenders.

STAY SAFE, BALTIMORE

AS ALWAYS

GO RAVENS!!

RAVENS WEEK 1 BREAKDOWN

      I resisted the temptation to write predictions for the first week of the 2020 NFL season because the total lack of a preseason not only deprived us of a look at all of the teams, but also because each organization was unable to go through the usual process to prepare in the month leading up to their respective regular season openers.  It is, after all, wise to avoid crowning a team as champion based solely on big name play-makers on its roster.  Football is a sport wherein preparation, chemistry, and schematic fine tuning can absolutely outweigh pure athletic talent.  In most cases, one cannot simply emulate Lebron James and recruit several superstars to immediately dominate the league.  There are cases where a big name free agent can fill a major hole in an otherwise strong team and elevate the organization to new heights the way Randy Moss did with the Patriots in 2007. There are even rarer occasions where a transcendent leader can arrive at a new team and bestow his experience and maybe even his own system upon his new squad to bring unparalleled success the way Peyton Manning did with the Broncos in 2012 and his offensive record-setting 2013 season.  

     The Tampa Bay Buccaneers may have thought they were getting just such a transcendent leader in Tom Brady, and I am sure they thought surrounding him with weapons such as Rob Gronkowski, Mike Evans, and Leonard Fournette would give him everything he needed to immediately catapult the Bucs into contender status, but Brady looked uncharacteristically out of sync with his targets yesterday.  I refuse to count him out purely based on his performance in Week 1 as Brady often struggled through the first 3 to 4 weeks of many seasons with the Patriots before making adjustments and dominating the rest of the way, but anyone looking to crown the Buccaneers as Super Bowl champs prior to the season must temper their expectations.  

     The Cleveland Browns are quite familiar with the temptation to prematurely celebrate their success because of major free agent acquisitions.  After a strong 2018 rookie campaign, many thought Baker Mayfield would run the league with the additions of Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr.  Reality shattered their hopes, however, as the Browns' 2019 season was a disaster, and yesterday's blowout loss to the Ravens offered even more evidence that one simply cannot underscore the importance of quality coaching and consistently strong drafting.  One announcer remarked yesterday that 45 of the 53 players on the Ravens roster were, in fact, drafted by the Ravens.  It did not matter that the Browns have two formerly elite wide receivers who should both still be in their athletic primes.  The Ravens got far better production out of a receiving corps that consisted of 3 wide receivers and a tight end on their rookie contracts.  Even the Ravens rookie running back J.K. Dobbins found his way into the end zone twice on Sunday.

     With all of that said, one must resist the temptation to crown the Ravens Super Bowl champs after a big first win.  The first 4 weeks of a season are not typically indicative of how strong a team will be late in a season for a few major reasons.  The first reason is that no one has seen the team on film in Week 1, and teams later in the season have far more film to utilize in preparation to thwart anything particularly gimmicky that may have caught other teams off guard early on.  The second reason is that no team returns all its players and staff from one year to the next, and even WITH a preseason it can still take several games for players to develop chemistry and for a system to be executed smoothly.  The third reason is that injuries can totally change a team--especially with a running quarterback.  I must admit that I was worried the Ravens would trot out the same run-heavy offense yesterday that would ultimately lead to a violent injury to Lamar Jackson at some point.  The Ravens rushing attack, instead, looked uncharacteristically weak.  Lamar was often bottled up when he tried to find room to run, and Mark Ingram seldom broke off a run for more than just 2-4 yards.  If you had told me that would be the case before the game, I would have predicted a Ravens loss, but just the opposite took place.

     Lamar Jackson took control of his offense through the air and absolutely shredded the Browns defense to the tune of 275 passing yards and 3 passing touchdowns with no interceptions, and he did so without even just 30 rushing yards from any running back on his team.  Jackson, actually led the team himself with 45 rushing yards, but his ungodly completion percentage of 80% was the statistic that proved particularly impressive.  The touch on Jackson's passes was consistently superb despite often having to throw on the run.  Suffice it to say, this is the big step up we all wanted to see from the young superstar to allow him to grow into a complete quarterback capable of aggressively attacking a defense even when the Ravens rushing attack sputters.

    The Ravens rush defense performed equally poorly to the rush offense on Sunday.  Forget the fact that the Browns only scored 6 points; they still managed to amass just shy of 140 rushing yards.  That stat is totally unacceptable and presumably correctable, but it was baffling to see a team gash Baltimore on the ground after the disappointing first round home playoff loss from last season to the Titans came in large part because Derrick Henry rumbled for 195 yards and embarrassed a team that has long prided itself on being stout against the run.  I assumed the much of the Ravens' off season would have been devoted to making sure nothing like that would happen again in the foreseeable future.  That is not to say the Browns do not have two elite power running backs in Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb, but elite running backs have seldom found success running the football against the Ravens in the past.  The Ravens once again appear particularly vulnerable to outside runs.  The 49ers first exposed that apparent weakness last season in what turned out to be a hard-fought win for Lamar and company, but San Fran provided a blueprint for how to attack an otherwise statistically elite Ravens defense.  

     It should not come as any surprise that the Ravens struggled against the run, particularly early.  Baltimore is young and relatively in experienced at the linebacker position.  Patrick Queen performed well for his first ever NFL game, but it will take time for the game to slow down for him to the point where he can truly utilize his outrageous speed and athleticism to carry out the tradition of the great run-stuffing middle backers that came before him in Ray Lewis and more recently C.J. Mosley.  The Ravens outside linebackers were particularly disappointing.  Matthew Judon and Jaylon Ferguson combined for 5 total tackles, zero sacks, and little in the way of pressure despite the Browns starting a backup offensive tackle.  I would be shocked if Baltimore's personnel department was not currently looking to sign a veteran pass rushing outside backer who also knows how to set the edge.  Things have not quite been the same in that department since Suggs became old and ultimately departed.  The acquisitions of Derek Wolfe and Calais Campbell proved immediately impact with multiple passes defensed between the two, but their presence must be complimented by consistent pressure off the edge as the Ravens face far more impressive quarterbacks than Baker Mayfield as the season presses onward. 

     Regardless of the host of issues on display last Sunday, the Ravens still absolutely obliterated a divisional rival with two elite wide receivers and two explosive top 10 caliber running backs.  The Ravens young receiving corps looked up to the task despite the absence of a wily veteran the likes of whom the Ravens have typically relied upon in the past with such names as Derrick Mason, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith Sr., and Mike Wallace.  Hollywood Brown caught for more than 100 yards, Mark Andrews and Willy Snead combined for 3 touchdowns, and both Miles Boykin and Devin Duvernay occasionally got in on the action.  The fact that the Ravens were that dominant despite their glaring issues only means their ceiling on the season should be quite lofty.  Harbaugh's squad will have a great chance to correct many of the major issues against a Texans team that should not scare anyone without DeAndre Hopkins next Sunday before the Chiefs come to Baltimore the following week for a matchup that will undoubtedly establish conference supremacy in the minds of many fans and sports analysts.   Stay tuned later this week for Week 2 predictions!

GET PUMPED BALTIMORE

RAVENS FOOTBALL IS BACK!!

     

     

     

NFL WILDCARD ROUND: CHARGERS-RAVENS

     There has only been two weeks since the Ravens faced the Chargers in L.A., and somehow it doesn't matter that Philip Rivers has historically had almost no success in the playoffs; many pundits still predict a win for a team that just lost at home to the Ravens 22-10.  It's not that the Chargers aren't a good team--they are.  It's simply that they lack what it takes to beat the Ravens: a reasonably mobile quarterback.

     Evading the Ravens pressure is no easy feat, but it certainly has been done this season.  Patrick Mahomes did it juuuust enough to make one more play than the Ravens needed to allow to win in Kansas City, and Drew Brees did it repeatedly on 3rd and 4th downs to find Michael Thomas for critical drive-extending passes that ultimately made the difference in a game the Ravens lost by a single point.  Two weeks ago, however, the Philip Rivers found no such luck.  He looked slow and utterly bewildered by the ways the Ravens brought pressure to the point that his otherwise high-flying offense was held to a pedestrian 10 points.

     It's highly likely that the Chargers will attempt to run an up-tempo offense in hopes of getting the Ravens defense on its heels and to prevent Baltimore from executing more sophisticated blitzes, but that will likely be hindered by deafening noise from what may prove to be one of the most motivated, raucous crowds in recent Ravens home game history.  Beyond crowd noise, this game will feel as though it's being played at 10:00 AM for the Chargers as they are traveling nearly 3000 miles to play a 1:00PM game in the Eastern time zone.  No one should be surprised if a team used to playing in southern California struggles to find an offensive rhythm against the top defense in the league in a cold, wet playoff environment in what functionally feels like the morning to them.

     I have heard all week how the Chargers will have figured out the Ravens offense having already faced it once before.  I am not entirely sure how they have some kind of advantage on that front considering the Ravens have also already seen the Chargers offense and will have had even more time to prepare for it as the Ravens never had to take a day to travel for this game.  It certainly does make me nervous that Lamar Jackson has struggled to finish drives, but the Ravens still managed to dominate in total yards with 361 versus a disappointing 198 for the Chargers.  The Ravens also had a slightly greater number of first downs and won the time of possession battle.

     Despite appearing to be the better team nearly all night in their last meeting with the Chargers, the Ravens still found themselves being driven on by Philips Rivers and company before Patrick Onwassor had one of the most timely forced fumbles taken back for a touchdown in Ravens team history.  The same was true last week against the Browns when it took an interception on 4th down to beat a Browns team that came storming back to make the city of Baltimore hold its collective breath.  I would say that these isolated occurrences, but critical turnovers and defensive points have been so frequent in the second half of this season that they seem likely rather than lucky.

     Many would point to the Ravens offense's ability to sustain drives and keep its defense well-rested and off the field as a reason for an increase in big-time impact defensive plays.  I'm sure that has played a major factor, but I would actually point to the fact that this is the first stretch this season where both a healthy Jimmy Smith and Marlon Humphrey have taken the field together.  Before Lamar Jackson took over as starting quarterback, the Ravens had a healthy Marlon until he was injured.  With Marlon out, the Ravens turned to Jimmy Smith, but he struggled in his first few weeks back and didn't start to round into form until he had played for about a month.  As Jimmy got back up to speed and Marlon returned to the field, the Ravens defense suddenly started to look like the dominant unit it should have been all year, and having a pair of quality corners on the outside goes a long way to allow your pass-rushers to hunt and allows a defensive coordinator to bring pressure with more confidence.

     There's simply no way the Chargers have gotten so significantly better in two weeks that they'll be able to totally flip the script of the last game and dominate the Ravens--right?  Well there is one factor that must be accounted for when analyzing the Ravens: fumbles.  Lamar Jackson has had a troubling number of fumbles that have stifled drives and allowed games to stay much closer than they could be.  The fumble at the goal line last week against the Browns was baffling as it was only inches away from being a touchdown had Lamar not perplexingly pulled the ball back just as it was about to break the plane of the end zone.  A major focus this week by the Ravens staff has to be reduce the odds of such mistakes and utilizing running backs and receivers more to take the pressure off of Lamar.  The Ravens won the turnover battle 3-1 last time they played the Chargers, and they need to do it again.

     I've said it before and I'll say it again: I'm not worried because even if the Chargers come out swinging and the Ravens find themselves down by 10-14 points late, they still have a quarterback sitting on the sidelines who can run an effective two-minute drill and is has ice in his veins in the playoffs.  I'm confident the Ravens won't be forced to resort to putting Flacco back in, but if they need him, he's there.  In the end, that's the reason the Ravens can run the offense they run without fear that they lose their starting quarterback.  If they do lose their starting quarterback...well they have their starting quarterback who has more playoff wins than any quarterback in the league other than Tom Brady right now.  Whatever happens here, the Ravens are prepared.

PREDICTION:
RAVENS 23-17

GET LOUD, BALTIMORE, THIS IS THE MOMENT WE'VE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR!!!
STAY TUNED TOMORROW FOR THE EAGLES-BEARS ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION.

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!