COMMANDERS-RAVENS PREVIEW AND PREDICTION

I find it hard not to root for the Washington Commanders this season.  Not only are they off to a red-hot start through the first five weeks, but their rookie quarterback has lived up to his draft hype and more.  No, Jayden Daniels is not Lamar Jackson, nor does he even play with the same general style, but like Lamar, he has already immediately proven himself to be his team's unquestioned MVP.  

Comparisons of Jackson and Daniels by sports commentators are rather nonsensical.  Daniels is certainly mobile, and he is an effective and even fearless runner when the situation calls for it, but he is simply nowhere near as explosive and shifty as Lamar.  With that said, Daniels has a better, more consistent throwing motion, and this is especially evident on deep passes.  That is not to say that Lamar is a bad passer, but he still struggles to connect on passes deep downfield, and statistically he is the least accurate deep ball passer of all starting quarterbacks since he entered the league in 2018.  Lamar's specialty is, instead, darting short and intermediate passes.  Number 8 has demonstrated the ability to squeeze passes into tight windows with a compact throwing motion and a lightning-quick release.

Lamar looked like an absolute superhero against the Bengals last week with highlight reel passes whilst evading and even tossing aside defenders before throwing touchdowns that suddenly prompted many to enter him into this year's MVP discussion.  With that said, I must admit that I was still a bit jealous two weeks earlier when the the Commanders themselves faced the Bengals, and Jayden Daniels threw an utterly flawless deep touchdown pass where only Terry McLaurin could get it in the back corner of the end zone.  Daniels looked like a polished vet as he fearlessly stood in the pocket and delivered a strike with an outside linebacker bearing down upon him.  The deep passing game was the bread and butter of the Ravens offense for over a decade with Joe Flacco, and it helped to take advantage of burner wide receivers such as Torrey Smith, John "Smokey" Brown, and Mike Wallace.  For the Commanders, Jayden Daniels' ability to make virtually any throw helps to finally take advantage of the speed of Terry McLaurin, who has waited 6 years to finally catch passes from a serious quarterback.  The Ravens currently possess a solidly speedy wide receiving corps of their own with the likes of Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and Nelson Agholor, and if Lamar could finally develop good chemistry with them on go routes, a new dimension would be added to an already ferocious Ravens offense.

The Ravens offense is, in fact, so devastating at the moment, that it currently ranks #1 in the NFL by yardage with a staggering 447.6 yards per game, but it ranks 2nd in the NFL in points with 29.4 per game.  The team with the highest average points per game in the league right now is none other than the Washington Commanders with 31.  Perhaps the Ravens have played a somewhat tougher string of opponents thus far, but if we're comparing performances against a common opponent, in this case the Bengals, the Commanders actually won their game in slightly more convincing fashion.  The Ravens beat the Bengals, but they needed a botched hold on what turned into a missed Bengals field goal in overtime to do it.  There's truly no question that the Commanders have found a rhythm and an identity as an offensive power this season, and in that regard, they're quite similar to the Ravens.

Offensive might isn't the only thing these two teams have in common.  They both rank in the bottom half of the league in points allowed; the Commanders have allowed 23 and the Ravens have given up 25.2 per game.  As exciting as their respective offenses have been, because of their defensive shortcomings, both teams' respective total point differentials on the year aren't outrageously impressive.  With that said, the Commanders’ last two wins were dominant with a 42-14 victory over the Cardinals and 34-13 win over the confusingly but amusingly awful Cleveland Browns.  The Ravens have had one dominant win over a Bills team recently plagued by a rash of injuries, but every other game has been won or lost by a razor-thin margin.  The Commanders defense seems to be improving as of late, but no such luck for Baltimore.

Baltimore's secondary on paper appeared to be arguably the deepest, most talented position group on the team coming into this season.  They appeared to have excellent depth at corner and a strong pair of starting safeties, but something has simply been off.  Blown assignments and poor communication have led to calamitous breakdowns in coverage that have made the Ravens susceptible to giving up big plays.  The Ravens no longer rely on Marlon Humphrey to be their stud shutdown corner, but he's still out there and has been picked on badly at times.  I have maintained that the loss of Jadeveon Clowney in free agency was the biggest reason that 2024 Ravens defense has looked virtually nothing like the historic 2023 Ravens defense that was the first in NFL history to lead the league in sacks, fewest points per game, and turnovers.  Clowney not only consistently put fierce pressure on quarterbacks even when he didn't get a sack, he was also an elite run defender with fantastic grades by Pro Football Focus.  Clowney's departure has had far-reaching ripple effects to every level of the defense, and it doesn't help that the Ravens have a new defensive coordinator who hasn't had the start we all hoped he would.

Baltimore almost certainly won't go on a deep playoff run this season, or any season for that matter, without a strong defense, and if they're going to right the ship on that side of the ball, this would be the week to prove it against the top scoring offense in the league coming off of two blowout wins.  Baltimore has a history of terrorizing rookie quarterbacks, but this quarterback isn't playing like a rookie.  The Commanders, however, will be without a critical piece to their offense when they take the field on Sunday.  Starting running back Brian Robinson Jr. will be out with a knee injury.  This is a significant loss as Robinson has already had 5 rushing touchdowns and 325 rushing yards this season.  Austin Ekeler will be the starting back, and he's no slouch, but it would have been far better for the Commanders to head into Charm City with a full array of weapons.

The Ravens will be without two defensive starters in Malik Harrison and Broderick Washington, but they're mostly healthy otherwise.  Both teams are quite healthy compared to the rest of the league right now, so whichever team emerges victorious will do so knowing it beat a top 10 opponent in the league that entered a he game at nearly full strength.  

PREDICTION

This isn't much of a road game for the Commanders from a travel distance standpoint even though it will be in a loud road environment. M&T Bank stadium will undoubtedly have a sizeable number of Commanders fans to neutralize out the crowd noise advantage a bit.  The Ravens defense might look stout in the first half as it has against numerous other opponents this season, but the Commanders will likely make this a close, high-scoring contest with a good chunk of their production coming in the second half .  The deciding factor, however, will be the Ravens ability to control the ball with a healthy dose of Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson spreading the ball out to more receiving weapons than any team could reasonably attempt to cover.  The Commanders could do everything they can to contain Lamar and load up the box to stop Derrick Henry, but Lamar will simply shred them with Zay Flowers, Isaiah Likely, Rashod Bateman, Justice Hill, and perhaps a timely catch or two for Mark Andrews.  This one will be close, but the Ravens offense appears to simply have more options and a better ability to control the clock.

RAVENS 38-31

A loss for either team this week won't be devastating, but this game will tell us much about the true strength level of both franchises .  The only tragedy is that this isn't going to be a primetime game.  Who knows? Perhaps this will usher in a renewed local rivalry…

POST-GAME REACTION - BILLS BLASTED IN BALTIMORE

     

 I must admit that I told at least a couple of friends I believed the Buffalo Bills would beat the Ravens in a high-scoring shootout 34-28, but I am absolutely THRILLED my instincts were way off in this instance.  Early season games are often incredibly difficult to predict as the pool of data from which one must draw conclusions is particularly shallow.  After all, if the first three weeks of the season were any indication, Baltimore's defense would have fallen apart in the second half at the hands of Josh Allen who has been playing at an MVP level thus far.

There were even moments Sunday night where Allen flashed his elite talent such as his 52 yard pass he completed on the run whilst being shoved out of bounds. The Bills scored only moments later to pull within 11 points, and Ravens fans and possibly even some players undoubtedly felt pangs of deja vu after Baltimore blew sizeable second half leads in the previous two weeks.  Thankfully a couple of major factors turned the game's momentum right back in favor of the Ravens, and hopefully these are signs that the organization has made critical adjustments that will carry into subsequent weeks.

The first factor was Baltimore's ability to generate pressure in the second half even when they were dropping 6 into coverage.  One of the television commentators described it well when he said, in so many words, that the Ravens are only rushing 5 players per down, but you don't know exactly which 5 players they will be.  Disguising the blitz and relentlessly pressuring Josh Allen to throw on the run even late in the game kept Buffalo from ever getting into a sustained passing rhythm.  Throw in a back-breaking strip-sack from this season's defensive MVP thus far, Kyle Van Noy, and the Ravens front 7 helped tremendously to take pressure off of a secondary that had previously been exposed every week up to this point.

The second factor was the Ravens' ability to keep their foot on the gas in the second half and complete enough scoring drives to to leave their opponent hopeless enough to bench its starting quarterback with over 7 minutes left in the game.  Todd Monken has clearly improved the way the team utilizes Derrick Henry's immense talent with major tweaks to blocking assignments and better play calling.  Henry is unquestionably a future hall-of-famer and the most productive running back of the last 10 years, but he has never had the lateral quickness and burst of a smaller back.  Instead, Henry requires plays that allow him to take a handoff with a full head of steam or catch a pass out into space where he then has the opportunity to accelerate to top speed.  Once King Henry's strides get long, especially if he's reached the second level, he becomes painfully difficult to stop or bring down.  The Ravens have, in other words, finally got the hang of using their new weapon.

As dominant as Baltimore's rushing attack was, there were numerous pivotal drives that would have stalled out were it not for timey completed passes on 3rd down to keep the chains moving.  It is highly unlikely that any particular Ravens receiver will amass a pro bowl-level receiving yards total this season, and that will undoubtedly be frustrating for players such as Rashod Bateman and even Mark Andrews who both need to make a statement to justify a serious contract following this season in Baltimore or wherever else they might end up.  For the sake of the team's success, however, relying on the running game and spreading passes out to many targets is unquestionably a better recipe for success as it makes the Ravens harder to defend.  Long gone are the days where an opposing defense needed only to double-team Mark Andrews and contain Lamar Jackson to slow down Baltimore's offense.  Now teams can't simply key in on Lamar because they have to buckle up their chinstraps and load up the box in desperation to try to stop Derrick Henry and Justice Hill.  Oh, and if a teams tries to double any single Ravens receiver, Lamar has plenty of others who are more than capable of getting open, making defenders miss, and even going up to secure contested catches.  Zay Flowers is undeniably Baltimore's best wide receiver, but Rashod Bateman and even Nelson Agholor are big targets with whom Lamar continues to build chemistry.  Add in Isaiah Likely to the mix who happens to be incredibly explosive for a tight end, and include Derrick Henry and Justice Hill as pass-catching running backs, and you've got one of the most complete stables of receiving weapons in the league even without a top-tier target that anyone would describe as a true #1 wide receiver.

As much as I would like to continue to heap praise on the Ravens after their dominant performance over a team many believed to be the best in the AFC if not the league coming into tonight, it must be pointed out that the Bills were missing a significant number of defensive starters for the past two weeks.  Injuries are certainly part of the game, but a dominant offensive performance should be considered at least somewhat less predictive of success in future weeks when it came against an opponent that limped into a primetime game on the road.  Baltimore may still struggle going forward against defenses with elite pass rushing defensive linemen and outside linebackers the way they did against Chris Jones in Week 1 and Maxx Crosby in Week 2.  Pittsburgh, for example, has pass rushers coming from every direction, and Lamar has only managed to beat them once in his entire career.

Despite the Bills' defensive injuries, the Ravens defense still stepped up big-time at critical moments to stop one of the NFL's hottest offenses from mounting a comeback in the second half, and that must be seen as significant progress.  Lamar and company travel to Cincinnati next week to face an underwhelming Bengals team that still should not be taken lightly as they possess divisional familiarity and a pair of dangerous wide receivers in Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase.  A win in Cincy and perhaps a little help from a desperate Cowboys team that has the weapons to potentially upset the Steelers, and the Ravens could find themselves tied for the lead in their division after an unusually disappointing start to the season.

I acknowledge that John Harbaugh is the leading candidate to be tarred and feathered in Charm City thus far this year for his ill-advised challenges and utter lack of clock management skills, but I would be remiss if I neglected to point out that during his tenure as head coach, the Ravens have often bounced back after losses and even strings of losses.  In 2012, for example, the Ravens dropped 3 straight games after starting the season red-hot with a 9-2 record through the first 11 weeks.  Harbaugh made the wise but also daunting decision to fire his offensive coordinator after a 4th quarter collapse against the Redskins, and that move led to their clinching a playoff berth the next week against the then reigning Super Bowl Champion Giants.  Perhaps a pair of frustrating early losses was exactly what was needed to prompt necessary adjustments and turn this team back into a dominant force similar to last year's regular season juggernaut.  

Following next week's game against the Bengals, the Ravens will host the surprisingly hot Commanders squad.  Baltimore typically feasts on rookie quarterbacks, but Jayden Daniels isn't playing like a rookie at all.  Daniels looks more and more an elite veteran with each passing week, and this was evidenced today by Daniels leading his team to a suffocating 42-14 win against the Cardinals.  Obviously the Cardinals are not considered an elite team, but many of the throws Daniels has made this season would be spectacular completions over any secondary in the league.  The Commanders defense also appears to improve each week.  It is tough not to root for the likes of Daniels and Terry McLaurin given how long that franchise has searched for a real quarterback, but when the Commanders come to Baltimore in two weeks, it's all business.  Like next week's Bengals game, the following game against Washington will tell us much about exactly how good this Ravens team is.  After all, a 35-10 win might feel triumphant, but in the NFL a win is a win no matter the score, and a big victory carries absolutely no weight as to the the outcome of the next game.  Enough celebration--it's time for the birds to get back to work!

CAN THE RETURN OF YANNICK NGAKOUE HELP THE RAVENS DEFENSE REGAIN ITS FORM?

There is no question that Ravens fans felt some level of cautious optimism following Sunday’s road win over Dallas. Lamar Jackson’s incredible record against NFC teams improved to 21-1, and the Ravens as an organization improved to 6-1 against the Cowboys. The Ravens offense looked ferocious at times as their rushing attack, led by Derrick Henry, rumbled for a total of 274 back-breaking yards, and the Ravens offense overall totalled 456 yards on the day. Baltimore also managed to hold Micah Parsons and the entire Cowboys defense without a single sack, which was a monumental improvement over their inability to stop Maxx Crosby a week earlier. The Ravens offense even managed to close out Sunday’s game with a timely first down off of an impressive carry by Lamar. One would expect with 28 points, no turnovers, and nearly 35 minutes of possession, that this game would not be remotely close—hell, they even had a 22 point lead going into the 4th quarter. 

John Harbaugh said last week that the Ravens needed to find their offensive identity, and perhaps they did, but they unfortunately also found their defensive identity, which happens to be utterly collapsing in the second halves of games.  The Ravens defense has looked so dominant at times in the first halves of games this season that it’s tempting to wonder if they’ve regained their mojo, but their pass defense is dead last in the league in yards allowed, and while it’s tempting to blame it on poor coverage late in games, the bigger glaring issue appears to be the almost total disappearance of the pass rush as the game wears on. 

There are undoubtedly schematic corrections for the Ravens new defensive coordinator Zachary Orr must make to attempt to address the disappearance of the pass rush late in games, but he can only work with the personnel he has been given. Just as the Ravens were forced by salary cap limitations to let veteran offensive linemen go, so too were they unable to afford to retain Jadeveon Clowney. Many questioned what Clowney had left in his figurative tank when he signed with Baltimore in the 2023 offseason, but that was mostly because they looked purely at his sack numbers and neglected to examine other telling statistics such as his QB pressures and his grade against the run. Clowney was actually an elite run defender coming into Baltimore, but his pass rushing presence helped elevate everyone around him even when he was not the one recording a sack. Clowney’s disruptive presence is certainly missed thus far in 2024.

Eric DeCosta is seldom one to sit on his hands when the Ravens display glaring deficiencies at one position or another. He has shown himself to be far more aggressive with free agent acquisitions and trades during the season than Ozzie Newsome ever was. One such trade was with the Minnesota Vikings in 2020 for Yannick Ngakoue. Yannick logged a disappointing 3 sacks during his short stint in Baltimore, but he proved immediately thereafter that Baltimore simply failed to utilize him correctly by totaling 10 sacks in 2021 with the Raiders and then 9.5 sacks with the Colts in 2022. Yannick only logged 4 sacks in 2023, but his season was cut short and limited to 13 games because of a broken ankle. 

Despite an already fairly lengthy 9-year career, Ngakoue is still only 29 years old, and because his season-ending injury was just a broken bone instead of a torn ligament or tendon, it is not unreasonable to expect the veteran to still have a fair degree of the quickness and burst he displayed in 2021 and 2022. His veteran presence could help provide mentorship to a host of young defensive starters, but more importantly, he could provide the depth and spark needed to reignite the Ravens pass rush late in games.

The pass rush certainly is not the only missing piece to the Ravens’ puzzle in their quest to regain last year’s dominant form, but it would help to cover up other defensive deficiencies and end opponents’ drives sooner. Eric DeCosta and John Harbaugh will  also be forced to address Justin Tucker suddenly becoming the actual worst kicker in the league, and they will doom the team if they cannot end the failed Daniel Faalele experiment and start the correct players on the right side of the offensive line. With that said, acquiring Yannick Ngakoue is definitely a solid first step. 

Stay tuned later this week for a Week 4 preview!