The following post is written by a good friend of mine who also happens to be a highly successful football coach in Massachusetts. Jason Farias will be providing periodic reports from the perspective of a serious Patriots fan to give readers a detailed look into the state of one of the Ravens biggest AFC rivals, the New England Patriots. Enjoy!
Heading into the 2013 NFL season, there are more question marks surrounding this year’s New England Patriots squad than there are answers. After coming off a season which ended prematurely with an unsuccessful AFC Championship game loss at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens, the Patriots endured one of the most chaotic off-seasons in league history.
Offensively, Tom Brady’s top receiving threats are gone as Wes Welker is now a member of the Peyton Manning-led Denver Broncos, Aaron Hernandez killed a man with a trident (likely a gun-shaped trident), and Rob Gronkowski is slowly making his return from various back and forearm surgeries. On the defensive side of the ball, there are lingering issues as well. Alfonzo Dennard can’t seem to keep out of trouble, and a suspension could be looming depending on how his legal situation turns out. Aqib Talib was signed to a one-year contract, and while he’s considered the squad’s top cornerback, questions remain about his character and ability to remain healthy. Ditto for you, Ras-IR Dowling.
Regardless of the various roster losses, there is always optimism for every fan base as the season begins (except you, Cleveland, God hates you). The big acquisition of the off-season was Danny Amendola from St. Louis, who looks to shine in the slot role previously occupied by the departed Wes Welker. The Patriots were also able to shore up their offensive line by signing right tackle Sebastian Vollmer to a multi-year deal. They added a bevy of tight ends to replace the incarcerated Hernandez and the injured Gronkowski. LeGarrette Blount is a big running back who could steal some carries away from Stevan Ridley late in games, especially if Ridley gets back into Bill Belichick’s doghouse by continuing to fumble at an alarming rate. Defensively, former Pro Bowl safety Adrian Wilson was brought into Foxboro to play safety opposite Devin McCourty. Three-technique extraordinaire defensive tackle Tommie Kelly could give New England some flexibility within their hybrid 4-3/3-4 two-gap/one-gap defensive scheme.
In the 2013 NFL Draft, New England added some potential key players. Everyone I know who knows about football is intrigued by the athleticism of Southern Mississippi DE/OLB Jamie Collins. Aaron Dobson and Josh Boyce are two smart rookie wide receivers expected to contribute early so long as they can grasp the playbook. The Patriots have also drafted about 8,184,286 players from Rutgers over the past few seasons, so there’s gotta be something in the water in New Jersey (other than filth, of course).
The biggest reasons for optimism for Patriots fans are found in the foundation of structure and talent in New England, from an organizational and coaching standpoint, to the key players on both sides of the ball. This will mark another year of growth for the defense, specifically the linebacking core of Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes, and Dont’a Hightower. Having TB12 at quarterback will help calm any unease regarding a questionable receiving corps, and of course there’s the schematic and in-game genius of my personal hero, Bill Belichick. This is why heading into the first pre-season game of the 2013 slate, I was excited to see where New England was at from a philosophy standpoint as well as in terms of the performance of the players.
There was a lot of talk heading into Friday night’s showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles about the type of offense New England would run. Last year, they used a lot of 12 personnel sets (1 rb, 2 te, 2 wr), especially when Gronk and Hernandez were both healthy. One would think that they’d shift to a more traditional 11 personnel grouping (1 rb, 1 te, 3 wr) given the issues at tight end. Nope, this was not the case at all. Out of New England’s first 16 plays of the game, in which Brady was the quarterback, New England used 12 personnel nine times, 13 personnel (1 rb, 3 te, 1 wr) twice, and even 14 personnel (1 rb, 4 te, 0 wr) once. This meant that, on only four plays, or 25% of the time, New England used three or more receivers. New England made great use of winged sets, where they’d line an H-back tight end off the line of scrimmage outside of the in-line tight end. The theory behind using this set is it creates a cheap edge to a defense, and it also creates additional gaps to the outside. Furthermore, the use of 12 personnel groupings puts the defense in a quandary from a schematic standpoint. With that many big bodies in the game, opponents would be reluctant to go to any sub- or nickel packages. What this does is create matchup problems as smaller cornerbacks and safeties are forced to match up against New England’s physical tight ends.
Ironically, Philadelphia started the game in a nickel package, with four defensive linemen, two linebackers, and five defensive backs. To counter this, on New England’s first drive of the game, in which they used only offensive sets which had two or more tight ends in the game, the Patriots ran the ball six times out of six plays. Eff you, Chip Kelly. Next drive, New England began throwing the ball out of these same package groupings, and Tom Brady went 7 of 8 passing including a touchdown strike to Shane Vereen on a fade.
Let’s talk about that touchdown pass to Vereen for a moment. The Patriots lined up in an Empty formation (they call it Eagle), with Vereen lined up wide to the left and Aaron Dobson at the X receiver position lined up flexed on the line inside of him. To the right of Brady, Amendola played slot, lining up as the #3 wide receiver to that side, with a tight end outside of him and a Z receiver split out wide. This formation is awesome. Here’s why: lining Vereen out wide creates problems for a defense. They have two responses. They can either cover him with a linebacker (who is slower than the speedy running back is) or use a cornerback to guard him. If they decide to use a cornerback, this means the X receiver is going to be matched up against a safety or linebacker, which is a decided mismatch. On the three wide receiver side, lining up the Y receiver (tight end) as the #2 receiver creates a similar unfavorable proposition for the defense as they will then have to decide between using a safety or a linebacker on the tight end, which creates a favorable matchup for Amendola to run all kinds of short routes in space against linebackers. You better believe I’m stealing this for the high school I coach at!
After that touchdown pass, Brady gave way to Ryan Mallett at quarterback, and we were able to see what the second group on offense did. Mallett started the game off poorly, as he missed a wide open receiver on a slant route, which is honestly the easiest throw for a quarterback to make, at any level. My high school quarterbacks can throw a better slant ball than Mallett did, and his lack of adequate footwork on that play suggests some still-raw mechanics. After that first drive in which New England went three and out, he settled down a little, leading New England to a field goal. Unfortunately, he also missed a wide open wide receiver on a seam route which would have been a touchdown had the ball been on target. It is hard to win football games in the NFL when your quarterback misses these types of throws.
LeGarrette Blount had a nice first game for the New England Patriots, although he is getting credit on SportsCenter for a touchdown run for which he will undoubtedly be yelled at by his position coach in meetings this week, as will the linemen for blocking like shit. The Patriots ran an outside zone stretch play to the left, and his first read on that play is to key the second defensive lineman past the center (not including a shaded nose). After the left tackle got his ass kicked, Blount should have cut inside and taken the two or three yards. Instead, he changed direction and basically made a touchdown out of a schoolyard play. Famed offensive line coach and outside zone guru Alex Gibbs has said that when running the football, the two goals are 1) no negative plays and 2) create a big play (run of 20+ yards). Although he scored a touchdown on that play (thanks in part to excellent hustle after a missed initial assignment by rookie tight end Zach Sudfeld, a 6’7” giant out of Nevada), Blount got praise from teammates. Nine times out of ten, however, changing direction like he did would result in a loss on the play. Teams can manage a second-and-seven. Second-and-14 forces an offense to get away from its gameplan and therefore allows a defense to dictate terms of engagement.
I was impressed by the rookie wide receivers, although I figured at first that this part of the analysis would revolve around the aforementioned Dobson and Boyce. Oh contraire mon frère! Kenbrell Thompson, a rookie wide receiver out of Cincinnati, had a great game and looked to have pretty good chemistry catching short and intermediate passes from TB12 and Mallett. If he makes this squad, he could be a decent role player.
On the defensive side of the ball, much attention was paid to how New England would defend Chip Kell’'s vaunted no-huddle spread offensive attack. The Patriots started the game in their base 4-3 defense, with Spikes at the Mike linebacker position, Mayo in his usual spot at the Will, and Hightower as the Sam ‘backer. Wilfork spent most of his time abusing the center and guards, so I found it interesting to see Philadelphia option him on an outside zone rather than block him. Oh, Chip Kelly, you and your zone-read offense!
Chandler Jones, although unable to get to the quarterback for a sack, showed nice initial burst, as he was able to get past the offensive tackles and create a little bit of pressure on Vick, Foles et al. I expect a BIG second season from the brother of UFC star Jon “Bones” Jones. Chandler has freakish length to his arms, and he’s stout against the run. Hopefully, he won’t be injury-plagued as he was last season, which will allow him to excel and be the Patriots’ top pass rusher.
While I was encouraged by the physicality of New England’s front seven, I was not as impressed with the defensive secondary. Aqib Talib was burned on a fade route by Desean Jackson for a touchdown, and what frustrated me the most was his horrific technique on the play. Jackson released outside, and Talib did a good initial job of getting his outside hand on Jackson’s inside hip to try and squeeze the receiver to the sideline. Unfortunately, he lost contact with Jackson’s inside hip, and the enigmatic Eagles receiver was able to stem his route inside to have leverage on Talib. Then, it became a foot race to the end zone, which Jackson won. Steve Gregory always seems to be a step late, and I find his start at safety over Devin McCourty to be perplexing.
I was encouraged by the play of Jamie Collins, the rookie defensive end/outside linebacker out of Souther Miss. He lined up primarily at the Will (weakside inside linebacker) position, and he was also used as a hand-in-the-ground defensive end at times. His versatility could give him more burn as the season progresses. Although he missed the Eagles’ quarterback while on a B-gap blitz (stay under control and break down, dammit!) he showed great initial burst and quickness off the ball. I also thought he did a decent job of turning his hips and running into his zone when asked to drop into pass coverage. As Rick Pitino says, “I’ll always take talent over experience.” Hopefully, Linebackers Coach Pepper Johnson will be able to coach up Collins on the finer points of playing linebacker in the NFL.
Heading into the second pre-season game, I still have some questions which have yet to be answered. Will Armond Armstead, the 6’5” 305lb defensive end formerly of the Canadian Football League, get an opportunity to make this squad, and if so, does he figure to be more of a 5-technique defensive end when New England uses more of a 3-4 defensive scheme or will he line up inside at defensive tackle when the Pats want to get a pass rush? Which tight ends will end up making the squad? Michael Jenkins, will you please show yourself to be a legitimate receiver, or are you simply unrealized potential? Defensively, how will the battle for the cornerback opposite Talib play out, and who will get the nod at the nickel?
Fortunately, there are four (three, really) more preseason games to figure out the answers to all of these questions. I look forward to watching this team grow as I’m encouraged we have the system and players and coaches to return to get TB12 his fourth Super Bowl title. Until next time, I’m Jason Farias.
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