There has been no shortage of criticism of the Ravens organization over the past several weeks. The Ravens lost to a team without an elite quarterback last week, failed to score points in the first half of the game, and thus, left many fans feeling bitter and hopeless at the notion of the Ravens securing a playoff berth. It's not the fact that the Ravens lost to this Texans team that should anger Ravens fans, however; it's the timing of the loss.
I wondered all season if the Texans or Ravens would have the upper hand because of system familiarity. It's abundantly clear that Gary Kubiak had zero tricks up his sleeve that the Texans hadn't seen, and factors beyond his control left the Ravens physically unable to handle a fiery Texans defensive front. One could point to injuries along the offensive line as a big reason for the Ravens struggles, and they were obviously a major factor in the loss to the Texans, but I firmly believe a strategic error has led to a loss of production in recent weeks.
The Ravens offense has clearly lost the ability to impose its will as far as the running game is concerned. No longer do they appear to be able to run the ball on a team anticipating the run. This is a serious problem as Gary Kubiak's offense is designed around running the football to set up the pass. It didn't matter that the Jaguars ranked near the bottom of the league in run defense, and it didn't matter that the Texans ranked only in the middle of the pack in the same statistical category. In both the Texans and Jaguars games, the Ravens didn't actually mount successful offensive drives until the run was largely abandoned for a faster paced, pass-heavy attack.
It's not that a pass-first approach should have been the strategy all season. The Ravens offense performed extremely well with a balanced rushing and passing attack, but the run first strategy simply hasn't worked in the last two weeks even against mediocre to poor run defenses. The Browns have a particularly poor run defense, but the Ravens will be operating without at least one and possibly both of their starting offensive tackles. Justin Forsett also hasn't had his typical burst and explosion for the last few weeks, and that has meant a major dip in his ability to break tackles and make defenders miss. Forsett is likely still healthy enough to play, but he won't be able to have a ton of success against any team that stacks the box with the current state of the Ravens offense line.
The solution to this problem isn't necessarily easy, but it's certainly not complicated--it simply requires execution. The Ravens are going to have to make use of a fairly wide array of receiving weapons, including Kamar Aiken, Marlon Brown, Michael Campanaro (we hope), Torrey Smith, Owen Daniels, Steve Smith Sr., Crocket Gilmore, Jacoby Jones, and Kyle Juszczyk. Instead of using the run to open things up for the pass, the Ravens will have to pass successfully to open things up for the run.
They'll need to begin the game in up-tempo fashion with quick passes to find a rhythm, neutralize the pass rush, keep the defense on its heels. At this point the Ravens don't actually have to establish the run to effectively sell play-action fakes at first. The Ravens have run the football so often at this point in the season that a team such as the Browns will do everything in its power to stop the run first. That's where the deep passing game comes into play. This season Flacco and Torrey Smith haven't had nearly the same deep ball chemistry as in previous years despite Torrey's career high touchdown total (10). It's unclear if the reason for that lies in Torrey's physical preparedness, Joe's accuracy, Gary Kubiak's system, or a combination of the three, but the connection seems to be lacking for whatever reason. This is a game where that connection MUST reappear on at least 2 to 3 attempts.
Even if Joe and Torrey don't connect on deep passes, the Ravens' deep threats can still do their part to advance the football by drawing pass interference flags. A 45 yard spot foul is just as good as a 45 yard reception. Joe Haden appears as though he'll return to the field this week, so expect him to spend much of the game attempting to cover #82. Torrey has had success against Haden in the past, but the Browns corner has elevated his skill level to shutdown status this season, and he's a big reason the Browns have a top 10 pass defense. I won't sing the praises of the Browns secondary TOO highly as their pass defense has not been enough to stop the last 6 opposing teams from scoring an average of 24 points per game. The Browns have also lost 5 out of their last 6 games, with their only win during that stretch coming against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 12.
I don't care that the Ravens will be missing offensive linemen, and I don't care that their running game hasn't looked great for a few weeks. If the Ravens don't come out firing on all cylinders on Sunday, they absolutely do not deserve a playoff spot. It's not that this team isn't improved overall from its state last season, and it's not that a potential 10-6 record isn't usually good enough to earn at least a wildcard spot. It's that the Ravens were two calamitous late-game plays away from sweeping the Bengals and one poor coaching decision away from beating the Chargers.
Think about that for a minute. If Jimmy Smith had been covering A.J. Green on what ended up being a bobbled catch for a touchdown instead of Chykie Brown in Week 1, the Bengals punt, and the Ravens likely run down the clock and win that game. If Terrance Brooks wasn't looking in the wrong direction on a late deep pass to Muhammad Sanu on 3rd down late in the 4th quarter in Week 8, the Ravens almost certainly hang on to win. Finally, if the Ravens decide to run the football on 3rd and 4 from inside the 10 yard line against the Chargers, Baltimore may have been able to run enough time off the clock, possibly convert a critical first down, or simply set up a 4th and short QB sneak situation that, even if it failed, would leave the Chargers pinned back towards their own goal line with just over a minute to play. The Ravens, instead, blew three 4th quarter leads against quality teams, and winning those games would have meant the Ravens would be 12-3 going into the final week of the season with the possibility of finishing 13-3 and securing a first round bye.
If the Ravens can't find a way to win with late 4th quarter leads against good teams, they won't go anywhere in the playoffs. It's not as though other teams haven't appeared vulnerable at times. The Patriots, for example, could have easily lost last week had Geno Smith simply thrown the ball away on third down when his team was in field goal range and only behind by a point in the 4th quarter. Smith, instead, held onto the football and took a sack for a 10 yard loss that pushed the Jets out of field goal range, and the Patriots held on to win by a single point...again. The Broncos looked sloppy and out of synch against a Bengals team that I still maintain isn't truly playoff-caliber. The Colts only barely beat the Browns and Texans recently, and as good as the Steelers have looked this month, it wasn't that long ago that they dropped games to the Saints and Jets. No team in the AFC is unbeatable, but every one of the aforementioned playoff teams has at least had impressive wins over more than just a couple of quality opponents this season. The Ravens have beaten two teams with win winning records this season, the Dolphins and Steelers, and the latter team absolutely blasted Joe and the boys during their second meeting.
This is it. The Ravens will depend on a slumping Chiefs team to beat a Chargers team that has started to pick up steam as of late, but the Ravens have to prove to themselves and the rest of the world that they can soundly defeat a Browns team with nothing to play for and a disastrous quarterback situation. If Joe Flacco and company don't finish on a high note, they simply don't deserve to dance.
There are still some reasons for optimism. The Chiefs DID beat the Chargers in San Diego when the Chargers were on a hot streak earlier this season. Philip Rivers was recently diagnosed with a bulging disc in his spine, and the pass rushing duo of Tamba Hali and Justin Houston will be licking their chops to take the veteran quarterback out of the game. The Chiefs have the #2 ranked pass defense in the league, and they were able to hold the Chargers to just over 200 yards passing in their last meeting. Ironically, the Chiefs might begin to lose motivation if their players see on the scoreboard that the Ravens are thumping the Browns early in the game, so we have to hope that the Ravens don't truly begin to pull away until the second half. The Chiefs, after all, need a win over the Chargers and a Ravens loss to make the playoffs, and the Ravens need a win over the Browns and a Chargers loss in order to make them playoffs themselves.
As quickly as leads tend to disappear in the 4th quarter of games, it would be profoundly unwise for either the Ravens of Chiefs to base their motivation to win on the score of another game. The only thing they can control is their own performance; they can't control how another team in another game performs. Both games begin at the same time, and both games will presumably end around roughly the same time, so it will behoove each team to fight to the bitter end. The Chiefs are undoubtedly aware of the Ravens' tendency this season to lose late game leads, and that should be motivation for Kansas City to never give up. The Ravens and Chiefs are both favored to win their respective games...so why do I feel so incredibly doubtful as the weekend approaches?
The game is in Baltimore, and the team needs its 12th man. This is no time for doubt, and this is no time for fear. It's time for our favorite team to win a football game and hope that another team wins theirs. If the Ravens finish 10-6 and miss the playoffs, it's not the end of the world. This team has a host of bright young stars that will only get better over the course of the next few seasons. C.J. Mosley has won a Pro Bowl invitation as a rookie, and that's a feat no Raven--not Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, or Jonathan Ogden--has ever done. Timmy Jernigan is an absolute monster, Rashaan Melvin will likely continue to develop as a solid corner, Lorenzo Taliaferro should be a ferocious battering ram for years to come, Rick Wagner is the 2nd best right tackle in the entire NFL, and Michael Campanaro could become an incredible slot receiver if he can simply stay healthy.
I don't think anyone sees this team winning more than a single playoff game...let alone the Super Bowl, but that doesn't mean they can't come back with a healthy Jimmy Smith next season and be loaded and ready to retake the AFC North and fight for the AFC title. Whatever happens, I'm proud of this team, and I'm proud of the 2014 draft class. No one wins the Super Bowl every year or even every decade, but as long as this team stays competitive and hungry, Ravens fans will have hope every single year. Ok, it's time for the picks!
WEEK 17 NFL PREDICTIONS
BROWNS AT RAVENS- This is the Ravens' last stand. There is no scenario where they can lose this game and move on to the post-season. They're playing a team that has done nothing but lose in the last month, but it's a team that always seems to play the the Ravens tough. The Cleveland Browns have turned into a bad football team lately, but there's nothing that would make them happier than to reach .500 and spoil the Ravens' season in the process. Baltimore's offensive line will not be as strong without Rick Wagner, and Justin Forsett can't be counted on to have a big game, though I certainly hope he proves me wrong on that end. This game will fall on the shoulders of Joe Flacco, the Ravens receiving corps, and the Ravens defense. The Texans had a strong enough defense and an intimate enough knowledge of Gary Kubiak's system to halt Baltimore in its tracks despite starting Case Keenum. The Browns' quarterback situation is even more uncertain as they appear ready to start one of two quarterbacks with little familiarity with their team's offense. Josh Gordon has not been the game-changer the Browns had hoped he'd be since his return last this season, and Andrew Hawkins has yet to practice this week with a thumb injury. I won't get so cocky as to suggest that the Ravens couldn't lose this game, but there's nothing from the Browns that would give me any reason to suggest Cleveland will win. The Browns can't make the post-season, so one has to assume that players won't be looking to throw their bodies unnecessarily into harm's way just to win a relatively meaningless football game. This is it. It's now or never, Baltimore. RAVENS 24-17
COWBOYS AT REDSKINS- The Cowboys are perplexingly better on the road than at home this season, but the Redskins would love nothing more than to ruin the Cowboys' seeding for the post-season. Despite the Redskins defeat of the Cowboys in Dallas earlier this year, and despite the Redskins' recent success against the Eagles, I simply can't predict the worse team to win here. The Cowboys are dialed in and ready to solidify their spot in the playoffs. Dallas is undefeated on the road this season, that's not about to change now. COWBOYS 28-23
COLTS AT TITANS- The Colts will have a 4th seed regardless of whether or not they beat the Titans and regardless of whether or not the Bengals or Steelers win on Sunday. It would, therefore, behoove the Colts to sit their starters this week against the Titans in order to get as healthy as possible before the post-season begins. I would be shocked if the Colts' starters played for more than the first quarter on Sunday. This is a completely meaningless game. TITANS 27-13
JAGUARS AT TEXANS- The Texans have a slim chance at going to the playoffs, but a chance nonetheless. Case Keenum isn't any sort of long term solution for Houston, but he is still a competent enough game manager to beat the Jaguars. TEXANS 33-20
CHARGERS AT CHIEFS- The Chargers aren't exactly on some sort of hot streak. They've lost 2 out of their last 3 and 5 of their last 9 games. The Chiefs, however, have lost 3 of their last 4 games. What the Chargers HAVE been able to do is win two monumental road games by a combined 4 points against the Ravens and 49ers. The last time these two teams met was in San Diego, and the Chiefs won 23-20 to end the Chargers' winning streak. Since that game, both teams have experienced a host of significant injuries. The Chiefs lost Eric Berry to cancer treatment, and now both Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles are questionable with shoulder and ankle injuries. The Chargers have lost multiple starting centers, and they put their starting right guard on injured reserve earlier this week. Keenan Allen is questionable after breaking his collarbone a month ago, and Ryan Matthews is questionable with an ankle injury. Neither offensive weapon has practiced yet this week, but they have not yet been ruled out. Philip Rivers has been playing with a bulging disc in his spine, and with top notch pass rushers such as Justin Houston and Tamba Hali bearing down upon him, old Phil could find himself in a world of hurt if he's not able to get the ball out quickly.
The Chargers don't match up well against teams with good corners. The 49ers had a great defense this season, but their defensive collapse at the end of the game last week may have been more of a function of exhaustion and a lack of drive to win. The 49ers, of course, were already eliminated from playoff contention, and their head coach appears to be gone by the end of the season for greener pastures. Everything logical about this game leads me to believe the Chargers will have difficulty moving the football...but somehow I feel as though injuries just can't seem to stop Philip Rivers from making plays and scoring furiously late in games. My brain tells me the Chiefs win this one by a touchdown, but my gut tells me the Chargers have more to play for and unflinching confidence in their quarterback as of late. I beg Andy Reid to prove me wrong on this one--the Ravens' playoff chances depend almost entirely on it. CHARGERS 24-23
JETS AT DOLPHINS- The Dolphins beat the Jets in New Jersey, I see no reason why they won't turn around and beat the Jets in Miami. DOLPHINS 20-17
BEARS AT VIKINGS- Teddy is about to beat up on the Bears...kinda weird when you put it that way. VIKINGS 34-14
BILLS AT PATRIOTS- The Patriots have already clinched the division and home field advantage in the playoffs. It would be wise of them to sit their starters and get an extra week's rest. There's no point in putting Brady and company at any unnecessary risk right before the playoffs. BILLS 35-10
EAGLES AT GIANTS- The Eagles are unquestionably the better team, but it's tough to predict games between eliminated teams--especially divisional rivals. EAGLES 38-30
SAINTS AT BUCCANEERS- The Saints have been mostly awful this season, but the Bucs have been worse. This game will be about Drew Brees desperately trying to prove he can still win football games. SAINTS 34-21
PANTHERS AT FALCONS- The Panthers aren't good enough on the road, and there's no way that Carolina's offense will be able to keep up with that of the Falcons in Atlanta. FALCONS 31-16
LIONS AT PACKERS- I like the Lions defense, but I haven't been impressed by the Lions offense in the last two weeks. I can't see the Packers winning the Super Bowl, because they'd likely have to go back to Seattle to get there. This should be quite similar to the Patriots-Packers game, and a formidable Lions team will come up short in the end. PACKERS 28-26
RAIDERS AT BRONCOS- The Raiders have shown the ability to beat strong teams in Oakland, but they're like fish out of water on the road. The Broncos have to win to ensure the Bengals don't leapfrog them in the playoff seeding with a win over Pittsburgh. BRONCOS 41-20
CARDINALS AT 49ERS- One of these teams has something to play for and it's not the 49ers. The Cardinals, however, are a very different team than the one that beat the 49ers in Arizona earlier this season. The Cardinals will be starting a rookie quarterback against a 49ers defense that still ranks in the top 10. 49ERS 23-13
RAMS AT SEAHAWKS- The Seahawks win home field advantage if they take care of business at home against the Rams. This is a much different Seahawks team than the one that began the season 3-3. SEAHAWKS 42-14
BENGALS AT STEELERS- The Steelers have been hit or miss for much of this season, but they hit big time in their win over the Bengals in Cincy only three weeks ago. The Bengals shouldn't pat themselves on the back too hard for beating a slumping Peyton Manning in driving rain at home. The Bengals will be coming off of a short week and going on the road--that's never a recipe for success. A.J. Green has made his way back to practice, but his arm appeared pretty messed up and useless on Monday--I can't imagine he'll be 100% by Sunday night. The Steelers secondary isn't top notch, but their run defense is good enough to make the Bengals one dimensional. The Steelers should be firing on all cylinders at home to win the AFC North and the 3rd seed in playoffs. If the Ravens are fortunate enough to make their way into the post-season, they'll play the winner of this game...I hope it's the Bengals, but I believe it'll be the Steelers. STEELERS 35-27
There is still reason for hope if you're a Ravens fan. There's a good chance that both the Chiefs and Ravens win their respective games on Sunday with the Ravens moving on to the post-season. I do NOT, however, like the Ravens' chances of making a run in the playoffs. This is a team that has struggled to put away winning teams all season, and they've reached what appears to be a tipping point with injuries. If they make the playoffs, a well-rested Haloti Ngata could give their defensive line a boost, but the loss of Rick Wagner could be too much for the Ravens to overcome against the likes of the Bengals and the Steelers. I'll always maintain hope that something magical could happen as it did in 2012-2013, but the Ravens got healthy at the right time that year and had the veteran leadership and experience to motivate and guide that team to Super Bowl glory.
True Ravens fans should, instead, be excited about all the tremendous young talent on this team and the prospect of the Ravens being one of the most complete, dominant teams in the league in 2015 with a little help from the draft. 2014 may just go down as one of the top two or three greatest draft classes in Ravens history, and that's worth celebrating whatever happens this weekend. Injuries can take down the personnel of any team in any year, and that doesn't mean the organization isn't top notch, it's simply bad fortune and the nature of the game. I believe in Joe Flacco, I believe in Ozzie Newsome, and I believe in the Ravens. Whether or not they move on to the next round, let's hope the birds give us one HELL of a show on Sunday.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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