This wasn't the championship lineup for I had hoped for after the first round of the playoffs. I obviously wished the Ravens were playing on Sunday, but that's not even the issue. The biggest problem is that the teams that had the greatest chance of upsetting the two #1 seeds have both been knocked out of the playoffs. It's not that the Packers and Colts have no shot at winning these two games, but the Ravens and Cowboys had demonstrated more recently the ability to match up better with the Patriots and Seahawks respectively. The fact is that both the Colts and Packers have already lost convincingly to their upcoming opponents, and both will face those opponents on the road this weekend.
I'd like to believe that there are new factors that could change the dynamic of either of these two games. Maybe the Seahawks have demonstrated some sort of weakness not seen in Week 1, or maybe the Colts have found some sort of new offensive groove or defensive spark to suggest they'll have more success in Foxborough this time around. Sadly, the Packers may actually be significantly weaker than they were in their Week 1 blowout loss in Seattle, and the Seahawks appear dramatically stronger than in the first half of the season. The Colts may have looked great against Bengals and Broncos, but those wins were as much about major personnel issues for Cincinnati and Denver as they were about high level play from Indy.
I typically enter the writing process before having made a definite decision on a prediction. I began writing this post after having spent the entire week trying desperately to figure out scenarios where either favored home team could potentially be upset. It's certainly possible that either or both home teams could lose this weekend, but there are rather convincing reasons to believe that we'll see two #1 seeds in the Super Bowl for the second straight year. Let's briefly go over those reasons...it won't take long.
COLTS AT PATRIOTS- The Colts lost to the Patriots in Week 11 by a score of 42-20. The Colts aren't a good road team, but the Colts lost to the Patriots by 22 points IN Indianapolis. The Patriots have something now that they didn't have for most of there regular season, and that is a healthy offensive line. The health of that offensive line is a major reason the Ravens were unable to get pressure up the middle on Tom Brady. The Ravens had arguably the league's most ferocious pass rush...the Colts? Yeah, not so much. The beauty of the Patriots this season is their offense's ability to adapt to its opponent. Against the Ravens, for example, the Patriots knew quite well they wouldn't be able to run the football--so they didn't. They, instead, passed nearly 60 times and let a host of receiving weapons embarrass the Ravens pass defense. The Colts finished the season with a more highly ranked pass defense than the Ravens, but the most important part of that pass defense, Vontae Davis, is questionable and won't be playing at 100%. Even if Davis WAS at 100%, I doubt that it would matter. Davis can take away one of the Patriots receivers, but taking away a single receiver means next to nothing against a team with an arsenal of weapons. A healthy Vontae Davis meant very little when the Colts faced the Patriots in Indy, it'll mean even less in frigid Foxborough. The Patriots, by contrast, will put Darrelle Revis on the biggest weapon the Colts have, T.Y. Hilton. The Colts don't have a rushing attack to help open things up for their passing game. They won't even have their leading rusher, Trent Richardson.
If the Colts are going to win this game, they'll have to do so on some sort of career-defining performance from Andrew Luck. The Patriots are too strong offensively, too strong at home, and just strong enough defensively to make this just as lopsided a victory as that in Week 11. If the Patriots were going to lose prior to the Super Bowl, it would've been at the hands of the Ravens. The Ravens ultimately fell short in a valiant attempt to once again walk out of Foxborough victorious in the playoffs, and that win almost certainly guaranteed the Patriots another trip to the Super Bowl. No surprises here, but the Super Bowl should be a much more interesting matchup anyway.
PATRIOTS 35-17
PACKERS AT SEAHAWKS- There was nothing about the Seahawks through the first 6 weeks of the 2014 regular season that made me think they'd repeat as champions. I figured that there was no way the 3-3 Seahawks would finish the season as a #1 playoff seed, and if they didn't have home field advantage, how could they possibly hope to make it back to the Super Bowl? Well, the Seahawks certainly reminded me that it matters not how a regular season begins--it only matters how it finishes. The Seahawks haven't lost a game in 7 weeks. The Seahawks have also looked far more defensively dominant during their current winning streak than they did during last year's defensively dominant regular season and post-season. The Packers certainly picked up steam during the regular season after their own rough start, but an untimely torn calf muscle on one of Aaron Rodgers' legs has meant a far less potent offense during this post-season. The only way the Packers could've possibly beaten the Seahawks in the playoffs is if they had secured home field advantage through the playoffs with a fully healthy Aaron Rodgers.
The Packers will have neither home field advantage nor a healthy Aaron Rodgers, and they don't have a defense that matches up well with the strongest rushing offense in the NFL. The Packers defense ranked 23rd against the run this season, and their offense barely put up enough points to beat the Cowboys in Green Bay last week. The Seahawks rank 1st in the NFL is pass defense yet again, and they should have little trouble covering the Packers receivers given Rodgers' limited ability to use his legs to extend plays. As for Eddie Lacy, I love the way he plays, but he won't be enough to make up for Rodgers' limited mobility considering the Seahawks ALSO possess the league's 3rd ranked run defense. There is little reason to suggest the ultimate outcome of this game will be any different than that of Week 1. It's entirely possible that the Seahawks could make this a historical disappointment. It's also entirely possible that the Pro Bowl will be more entertaining than watching a gimpy Aaron Rodgers get totally shut down by the Legion of Boom. I can only hope the Patriots put up a better fight in two weeks.
SEAHAWKS 28-13
These aren't the match-ups I wanted to see this weekend. I'll be thrilled if either underdog pulls an upset, but I don't think either team has more than a 25% chance at making that happen. The best thing I can realistically hope for is a much more competitive pair of games than I've predicted.
I would be remiss if I didn't speak about our beloved Ravens. Gary Kubiak's possible departure isn't exactly a surprise. We all considered the possibility of Kubiak being one-and-done if he turned around the Ravens offense in 2014. Kubiak did, however, give Ravens fans and the Ravens staff false hope with his proclamation that he wasn't going to leave the Ravens for an head coaching offer...because that simply wasn't true. I'm not angry at Kubiak as he has the right to pursue any option put in front of him, but I do question his desire to go to Denver. I understand Kubiak's tight relationship with John Elway and his history with the Broncos organization are both likely the biggest reasons he's going back on his word. John Elway, however, doesn't play football for the Broncos anymore.
Peyton Manning took the Broncos to a Super Bowl last season and lost in embarrassing fashion. Peyton Manning couldn't even win a single playoff game this season after his absolutely loaded team helped him win 12 regular season games. Manning's body is falling apart at this point. He could rehabilitate in the off-season and possibly come back in good form next fall, but that form will likely last for a short period time than it did THIS season. Brett Favre in his second to last season, but his body hit a wall the following year. It was heartbreaking to watch a once-mighty Favre look like a punch-drunk 65 year-old former boxer. Manning hasn't taken nearly the same number of hits as Favre did in his career, but he could finish in nearly the same embarrassing fashion. Careers in the NFL don't typically follow the gradual decline one sees in major league baseball or professional basketball. It's not uncommon in football for an athlete to perform reasonably well less than a year before their physical abilities fall off a metaphorical cliff.
What does Mannings declining health mean for Gary Kubiak? Well Gary Kubiak's system requires a quarterback athletic enough to roll out of the pocket and laugh passes deep down-field. Joe Flacco isn't Michael Vick, but he's healthy and athletic enough to do both of those things. Manning's nerve impingement means he'll never possess the arm he once used to light up this league. Beyond that, Manning has seldom ever been a successful post-season performer. After last week's loss, Peyton Manning's career post-season record falls to 11-13. In 16 full seasons in the NFL, Manning has won a single post-season game more than Flacco, but he's lost 8 more than Joe. If Kubiak truly believes he'll be able to obtain his first Super Bowl ring as a head coach by going to Denver, he is only kidding himself. Manning doesn't want or need Kubiak's system. Manning runs his own offense, and he has made a lot of offensive coordinators and quarterbacks coaches look like geniuses to those who haven't known better. No, Manning doesn't need or want Kubiak's system--Manning needs his youth and health back.
If Gary Kubiak ignores the fact that Joe Flacco thrived in his system (especially in the playoffs), and if he ignores the fact that Joe Flacco is one of the two best playoff quarterbacks currently in the league, then he's a bigger fool than I thought. I don't think Kubiak is a fool. I, instead, believe Kubiak's decision to go to Denver has more to do with helping out a friend and a city he loves...even if he knows full well that help will likely be in vain. The Broncos have a dire salary cap situation for next season as they mortgaged their future in a desperate attempt to acquire the big name free agents they thought were necessary to win a Super Bowl in the twilight of Peyton Manning's career. The funny thing about Gary Kubiak is that he never displayed the chops as a head coach to steer even a highly talented Texans team through the playoffs. He's arguably one of the best offensive coordinators in football history with three Super Bowl victories as an OC on two different teams. The Ravens knew quite well what Gary Kubiak could offer their team from an offensive standpoint, they didn't have delusions that he'd be any sort of upgrade at head coach.
Kubiak's potential departure could mean a setback for the Ravens offense, but it may not mean that at all. Kubiak's system is absolutely in place in Baltimore, and the Ravens could install a Kubiak disciple such as Kyle Shannahan to simply continue running it. The Ravens have dealt with plenty of turnover at the offensive coordinator position in the past, but this time they'll be left with a system in place that will almost certainly promote success for the foreseeable future.
LET'S HOPE THIS SUNDAY IS MORE INTERESTING THAN I'M PREDICTING AND AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!! (GET ED REED TO BE THE NEW DEFENSIVE BACKS COACH!!!)
Saturday, January 17, 2015
Sunday, January 11, 2015
AFC DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAYOFF PREDICTION (COLTS-BRONCOS GAME)
Forgive me if today's post is unusually brief. Watching the Ravens blow two 14 point leads over the AFC's top team was disappointing to say the least. I have to say that I'm incredibly excited for next season, however, and there are a number of strong reasons all Ravens fans should be excited too.
Rick Wagner was placed on injured reserve not long ago, and he graded out as the league's second best right tackle. With Wagner back healthy, you have arguably the best right side of an offensive line in the NFL next season between Wagner and Yanda. The offensive line depth overall will be phenomenal considering what the Ravens were able to do with both of their starting offensive tackles out at points over the past two weeks. Protection of Flacco was incredible all season and especially last night. Joe is phenomenal when he has time to stand in the pocket and throw. I expect nothing less next season.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Ravens will get Jimmy Smith back healthy and in his prime. Jimmy's foot injury will actually be fully healed within the next 6-8 weeks, and his rehab won't take long after that. Because the Ravens were forced to play with such a patchwork group of corners, they now have a far more experienced group to add depth behind Jimmy Smith and Lardarius Webb. I think no one will be surprised if the Ravens draft at least one (maybe two) corners, but if you have a healthy Jimmy Smith and Lardarius Webb with Anthony Levine and Rashaan Melvin for depth, that's not a bad situation. Melvin was abused last night, and he missed out on an easy opportunity to bat down a ball that ended up being a touchdown, but he has the physical tools to become quite good with more experience in the off-season. Melvin had actually been a pleasant surprise when the Ravens had basically nowhere else to turn. There is a lot of upside to the young man.
The Ravens 2014 draft class performed incredibly well as a whole. C.J. Mosley will continue to develop, Timmy Jernigan will be even better with another off-season to hone his skills, Michael Campanaro should become far more involved in the offense as he showed flashes last night, Crockett Gilmore will continue to develop into a solid receiving target and blocker, and Rick Wagner will, of course, continue to build upon an unbelievable rookie season.
It's unclear whether or not the Ravens will be able to retain Gary Kubiak. If they are able to do so, the Ravens should hit the ground running with this offense, and absolutely dominate teams next season with the addition of a healthy, revamped secondary. The Seahawks appear once again to be the most dominant team in the league, but that era is about to come to a close as too many free agents will need a contract after this season, and their window with a cheap, effective quarterback will come to a close. Next seasons should, thus, be a golden opportunity for an impressively complete Ravens team to make a return to the AFC Championship and a serious run at the Lombardi trophy. This season is a lot like the 2011 season in that the Ravens showed they could contend with just about anyone in the playoffs--but ultimately fell short. The great thing is that they can pick up right where they left off next season, and this time they'll be in a great position to bully their way through the league.
COLTS AT BRONCOS
A lack of time has forced me to be comparatively brief with my analysis for this game, and for that I apologize. The Colts are a formidable foe, but only if playing inside the confines of their home dome stadium. Indianapolis' defense simply doesn't travel well enough to stop the Broncos, and T.Y. Hilton is no longer enough to beat a team by himself. The Broncos will likely put Aqip Talib on Hilton, and that should be enough to handcuff an offense that no longer has the benefit of an effective Reggie Wayne. Wayne has finally hit a point in his career where he's no longer an effective target. He's simply too slow, and his body has clearly worn down. There's no shame in that at his age, but his decline is absolutely poorly timed for a Colts team that desperately needs all the weapons it can get.
As I sit here writing this, I see the Cowboys are already making my decision to pick the Packers seem foolish. There is still an entire half of football left, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the Cowboys take care of business in this game. It was simply a coin flip to determine whether or not Aaron Rodgers could be effective enough to win this game with his injury, and thus far, it appears as though I called out tails when the result was heads.
Back to business. With a week of rest and home-field advantage, I don't think there's any way the Broncos lose at home to a dome team whose defense struggles on the road. Peyton Manning may not have much left in the tank, but he won't be truly challenged until next week against the Patriots. It would be great to watch luck finally overtake Manning, but then again it would also be great to watch Manning show the young guy who the master is once last time. Neither of these teams will be able to go into Foxborough and beat the Patriots, but at least if the Broncos win here, there will be another epic Brady-Manning showdown for the AFC crown...I just don't think it'll be nearly as epic as I'd prefer.
PREDICTION:
The Broncos are the more complete team, and they'll put up a lot of points in a hurry against a poor Colts road defense. The Broncos defense will give up points, but not enough to lose this game.
BRONCOS 38-27
CHEER UP, RAVENS FANS
OUR TEAM SHOWED WHAT IT WAS MADE OF AND
OVERCAME INCREDIBLE INJURIES WITH A RETURN TO THE POST-SEASON
THE BEATDOWN IN PITTSBURGH WAS ENOUGH TO CONSIDER THIS SEASON A SUCCESS GIVEN THE CIRCUMSTANCES
THIS MARKS A NEW ERA IN RAVENS FOOTBALL
THE RAVENS SHOWED THEY CAN ONCE AGAIN DOMINATE WITH ED REED AND RAY LEWIS GONE
THE COMBINE IS NOT FAR AWAY AND THE DRAFT WILL BE HERE BEFORE YOU KNOW IT!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!! (GO DRAFT SOME MORE PRO BOWLERS!)
Rick Wagner was placed on injured reserve not long ago, and he graded out as the league's second best right tackle. With Wagner back healthy, you have arguably the best right side of an offensive line in the NFL next season between Wagner and Yanda. The offensive line depth overall will be phenomenal considering what the Ravens were able to do with both of their starting offensive tackles out at points over the past two weeks. Protection of Flacco was incredible all season and especially last night. Joe is phenomenal when he has time to stand in the pocket and throw. I expect nothing less next season.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Ravens will get Jimmy Smith back healthy and in his prime. Jimmy's foot injury will actually be fully healed within the next 6-8 weeks, and his rehab won't take long after that. Because the Ravens were forced to play with such a patchwork group of corners, they now have a far more experienced group to add depth behind Jimmy Smith and Lardarius Webb. I think no one will be surprised if the Ravens draft at least one (maybe two) corners, but if you have a healthy Jimmy Smith and Lardarius Webb with Anthony Levine and Rashaan Melvin for depth, that's not a bad situation. Melvin was abused last night, and he missed out on an easy opportunity to bat down a ball that ended up being a touchdown, but he has the physical tools to become quite good with more experience in the off-season. Melvin had actually been a pleasant surprise when the Ravens had basically nowhere else to turn. There is a lot of upside to the young man.
The Ravens 2014 draft class performed incredibly well as a whole. C.J. Mosley will continue to develop, Timmy Jernigan will be even better with another off-season to hone his skills, Michael Campanaro should become far more involved in the offense as he showed flashes last night, Crockett Gilmore will continue to develop into a solid receiving target and blocker, and Rick Wagner will, of course, continue to build upon an unbelievable rookie season.
It's unclear whether or not the Ravens will be able to retain Gary Kubiak. If they are able to do so, the Ravens should hit the ground running with this offense, and absolutely dominate teams next season with the addition of a healthy, revamped secondary. The Seahawks appear once again to be the most dominant team in the league, but that era is about to come to a close as too many free agents will need a contract after this season, and their window with a cheap, effective quarterback will come to a close. Next seasons should, thus, be a golden opportunity for an impressively complete Ravens team to make a return to the AFC Championship and a serious run at the Lombardi trophy. This season is a lot like the 2011 season in that the Ravens showed they could contend with just about anyone in the playoffs--but ultimately fell short. The great thing is that they can pick up right where they left off next season, and this time they'll be in a great position to bully their way through the league.
COLTS AT BRONCOS
A lack of time has forced me to be comparatively brief with my analysis for this game, and for that I apologize. The Colts are a formidable foe, but only if playing inside the confines of their home dome stadium. Indianapolis' defense simply doesn't travel well enough to stop the Broncos, and T.Y. Hilton is no longer enough to beat a team by himself. The Broncos will likely put Aqip Talib on Hilton, and that should be enough to handcuff an offense that no longer has the benefit of an effective Reggie Wayne. Wayne has finally hit a point in his career where he's no longer an effective target. He's simply too slow, and his body has clearly worn down. There's no shame in that at his age, but his decline is absolutely poorly timed for a Colts team that desperately needs all the weapons it can get.
As I sit here writing this, I see the Cowboys are already making my decision to pick the Packers seem foolish. There is still an entire half of football left, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the Cowboys take care of business in this game. It was simply a coin flip to determine whether or not Aaron Rodgers could be effective enough to win this game with his injury, and thus far, it appears as though I called out tails when the result was heads.
Back to business. With a week of rest and home-field advantage, I don't think there's any way the Broncos lose at home to a dome team whose defense struggles on the road. Peyton Manning may not have much left in the tank, but he won't be truly challenged until next week against the Patriots. It would be great to watch luck finally overtake Manning, but then again it would also be great to watch Manning show the young guy who the master is once last time. Neither of these teams will be able to go into Foxborough and beat the Patriots, but at least if the Broncos win here, there will be another epic Brady-Manning showdown for the AFC crown...I just don't think it'll be nearly as epic as I'd prefer.
PREDICTION:
The Broncos are the more complete team, and they'll put up a lot of points in a hurry against a poor Colts road defense. The Broncos defense will give up points, but not enough to lose this game.
BRONCOS 38-27
CHEER UP, RAVENS FANS
OUR TEAM SHOWED WHAT IT WAS MADE OF AND
OVERCAME INCREDIBLE INJURIES WITH A RETURN TO THE POST-SEASON
THE BEATDOWN IN PITTSBURGH WAS ENOUGH TO CONSIDER THIS SEASON A SUCCESS GIVEN THE CIRCUMSTANCES
THIS MARKS A NEW ERA IN RAVENS FOOTBALL
THE RAVENS SHOWED THEY CAN ONCE AGAIN DOMINATE WITH ED REED AND RAY LEWIS GONE
THE COMBINE IS NOT FAR AWAY AND THE DRAFT WILL BE HERE BEFORE YOU KNOW IT!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!! (GO DRAFT SOME MORE PRO BOWLERS!)
Saturday, January 10, 2015
BEHIND ENEMY LINES: A PATRIOT'S PERSPECTIVE
In order to offer a different viewpoint to balance out my unquestioned bias towards the Ravens, my good friend, Jason Farias has written an excellent post from the perspective of both a highly analytical coaching mind, and also a Patriots fan. Enjoy!
This Saturday, the New England Patriots welcome the Baltimore Ravens to the confines of Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts for what surely will be a physical chess match in the divisional round of the AFC playoffs. Fresh off a bye week which was sorely needed for a variety of reasons which I hope to expand upon, Bill Belichick's squad will try to defend its home turf against a Ravens team that has complete confidence in its ability to win this contest. While some analysts will look at Baltimore's playoff history against New England with trepidation, I will attempt to provide insightful analysis as to the key matchups which will ultimately decide which team advances in the playoffs.
After the New England Patriots started the season with a record of 2-2, many media members and Patriots fans alike were seriously doubting New England's mental toughness, level of talent, and even the long-term commitment to Tom Brady. The team was able to turn things around beginning with the Week 5 demolition of the fraudulent Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals. That game was the first in a seven game win streak which included comfortable wins over Denver, Indianapolis, and Detroit. During this seven-game stretch, New England averaged 39.6 points per game. Unfortunately, beginning with the Green Bay game, New England's offense sputtered down the stretch with ugly wins against the Jets and Chargers and a Week 17 loss against the Bills. Congratulations, Buffalo, for finally winning at Gillette Stadium against our back-ups!
Interesting to note regarding the final stretch of the season for New England was the injuries to the team, in particular the offense, which forced lesser players to see the field. Julian Edelman was gimpy for much of the season, and he missed the final two games of the regular season, and Rob Gronkowski was held out of the final game of the season. Dan Connolly, left guard, and Sebastian Vollmer, at right tackle, missed the final two games of the season on the offensive line. Dont'a Hightower at linebacker and Brandon Browner at cornerback, also missed the final game of the season. On offense, Tom Brady was forced to hold onto the football longer due to the inability of receivers to separate, and with an inferior offensive line, he was often pressured and under constant duress. The nadir of offensive futility came in Week 16 versus Rex Ryan's New York Jets. Brady finished that game 23 of 35 passing for 182 yards, one touchdown and one interception.
Aside from improving overall team health, the bye week has also allowed Bill Belichick and the coaching staff to self-scout their own tendencies. More so than any other team in the league, New England does an excellent job of calling plays on both offense and defense which fit the down, distance, and overall situation at hand. With self-scouting, the Patriots can find their tendencies (such as running the ball when Legarrette Blount is in the game) and use this knowledge against opponents by going against the grain. Football teams often break down a team by personnel grouping, down and distance, field location, hash, formation, and many other variables. If a certain situation says Patriots run towards the TE 68% of the time, maybe they use this knowledge and call a play-action pass. Suffice it to say, at this point in the season, there's no point to hold anything back in terms of play-calling.
A key theme to the aforementioned Jets game, as well as many of New England's losses over the past fifteen years of excellence, has been pressure up the middle of the offensive line. Interesting to note with the return of all starters to New England's offensive line is this statistical split: with an offensive line of Solder-Connolly-Stork-Wendell-Vollmer, Brady has been sacked 4 times and he's had a QB rating of 103.6 over an 8 game sample size; with any other offensive line combination, Brady's been sacked 17 times, and his QB rating dips to 89.8 over that same 8 game sample size. The New England offensive line has a daunting task ahead of itself against the Baltimore Ravens' ferocious front seven, which tied for 2nd in the NFL with 49 sacks during the regular season. Baltimore, in addition to the ability to harass opponents on passing downs, is ranked 5th in the league against the run according to Football Outsider's DVOA (Please check their site out as they provide statistical analysis of football on a level similar to that of WAR and OPS for baseball).
The matchup between Baltimore's front seven and New England's offensive line will be pivotal to the outcome of the game. While I'll concede that Baltimore has the edge in this matchup, there are ways for New England to mask this weakness against Baltimore. To understand what New England may do against the Ravens, one needs to look no further than their Week 12 matchup against the Detroit Lions and Ndamukong Suh et al.
In the game against Detroit, New England conceded the run game for the most part, instead relying on their matchups in the passing game. Tom Brady finished that game 38 of 53 for 349 yards and 2 touchdowns with 1 interception. A majority of the damage was done against Detroit's secondary with horizontal stretches which got the ball out of TB12's hands quickly before the pass rush was able to affect him. Brady distributed the ball evenly, with no receiver gaining over 100 yards. Interestingly, since Detroit doubled Rob Gronkowski for a majority of the game, Tim Wright (an H-back type) scored two red zone touchdowns. Also, when Detroit had focused much of its attention on stopping New England's quick game and screen game, Legarrette Blount scored two touchdowns.
Baltimore possesses a formidable defensive line rotation, with Terrell (I'm an Orc from LOTR) Suggs and Elvis Dumervil providing pressure off the edges. These two players will place tremendous stress on Nate Solder and Sebastian Vollmer, respectively. I expect New England to deploy Shane Vereen in the passing game as an outlet in the face of pressure. Additionally, New England could use 6- and 7-man protections when they need to take shots down the field. Personally, I would use running backs, tight ends, and fullback James Devlin, to chip Baltimore's two edge rushers like knats attacking ripened fruit. Not only does Baltimore possess two great edge rushers, but their interior defensive line is equally adept at pressuring quarterbacks. Haloti Ngata is surprisingly effective collapsing the pocket, as is Pernell McPhee, a 6'2” 280 pound hybrid linebacker who sometimes slides inside to defensive tackle. The Ravens add depth with former Florida State Seminole Timmy (Timmay!!) Jernigan.
When passing the football, New England should try to take advantage of Baltimore's ineffectiveness against the TE. Baltimore is ranked 20th in the League according to DVOA against TE's, and although Will Hill has played on his head recently, including shutting down Jimmy Graham of New Orleans, Gronkowski is another animal. Not only is he great in the passing game, particularly the red zone, but he's also, in my biased opinion, the best run blocking TE in the NFL.
Baltimore sports a diminished Ladarius Webb and Some Guy at cornerback, so the back end of the defense is clearly an area the Patriots will try to exploit. Webb was consistently targeted in pass coverage by the Steelers last week, so that clearly shows what other teams across the league think about the secondary's ability to cover for any length of time. While I expect Webb to follow around Julian Edelman, given he's matched up well against Julian and Wes Welker in the past, the other matchups on the outside are enticing. Whomoever Some Guy is covering should see a steady diet of quick passes, screens, and double moves. Baltimore has given up the third worst QBR to opposing quarterbacks on passes that travel 15 or more yards downfield. While the deep ball is clearly not Tom Brady's gravy train, the Patriots should attempt at least one or two play-action max protect shots this game.
Whenever New England does decide to run the football, they will want to be prudent about where and how they go to the ground. Haloti Ngata, back from a 4-game PED suspension, was an absolute beast against the Pittsburgh Steelers. At inside linebacker are Daryl Smith and C.J. Mosley, the latter of which is in consideration for Defensive Rookie of the Year. While Baltimore often uses Courtney Upshaw as an edge-setting Sam linebacker in running situations, New England could take advantage of Elvis Dumervil's small 6'0” 250 pound frame in the running game. I would expect New England to use 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends) with Michael Hoomanawanui at the traditional Y spot to block at the point of attack, and Rob Gronkowski as the H-back/Flex position. Hoo-Man also could stay in for pass-protection purposes.
I expect New England to deploy the no-huddle offense more often than they usually have this 2014 season, as it's proven to be an effective tool against the Ravens in the past. The no-huddle can slow down the pass rush, tire out defensive linemen, and take advantage of personnel matchups whenever New England feels the Ravens don't have the proper defenders on the field. The Patriots must be judicial about how much they go no-huddle, however, as I feel Baltimore's best strategy for winning this game is controlling the clock and winning the field position game, thus decreasing New England's offensive opportunities.
I will be completely honest about this: New England's defense this 2014-2015 season is the best defense they've had since the 2003 and 2004 seasons when the likes of Ty Law and Rodney Harrison were patrolling the secondary while Tedy Bruschi and Richard Seymour anchored the front seven.
On the defensive line, Vince Wilfork and Alan Branch form 700 pounds of immovable object at defensive tackle, and their job is often to use two-gap techniques, thus keeping linemen from getting to the linebackers. Their success could prove pivotal to this game, as I expect Baltimore to try to establish the run with Offensive Coordinator Gary Kubiak's zone blocking scheme. Damian Easley could have an increased role this week, as his ability to explode off the ball and penetrate gaps is the type of destruction which plagues the zone running game. At defensive end for the Patriots are Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich. These players have to face the challenge of setting the edge against Kubiak's zone blocking scheme or else Justin Forsett and the other Ravens backs will be able to bust runs to the outside for long games.
Chandler Jones, who has recorded 1.5 sacks in two games since returning from a hip injury which cost him 6 games, will look to get pressure on Joe Flacco. Whether Eugene Monroe is able to return to the lineup at left tackle after missing a few weeks with injury is unknown at this point; however, New England should try to take advantage of the rusty and possibly hobbled Monroe or their current replacement, James Hurst. Hurst allowed six quarterback hurries against Pittsburgh. On the other side of the offensive line, the Ravens have moved All-Pro guard Marshal Yanda to right tackle to alleviate pressure issues on that side of the ball. Look for New England to deploy multiple A-gap pressures, especially from the versatile Collins, to confuse and overwhelm Baltimore's interior line. The rookie defensive tackle Damian Easley should see more playing time on passing downs give Baltimore's reliance on 5- and 7-step drops which are simple too deep for Air Vince Wilfork to be effective.
Football is a game of match-ups, and New England's secondary against Baltimore's receivers is an interesting one. Darrell Revis, back to his All-Pro form, will most likely be matched up against Steve Smith Sr. In three prior games against the 35-year old wideout, Revis has given up two completions for 21 yards. Brandon Browner, at 6'4”, may not be the best match-up against Torrey Smith on the other side, as the former Maryland Terrapin's small frame and explosive nature could prove troublesome. Torrey Smith leads the league in pass interference calls, and Browner isn't exactly a saint out there. I do expect the Patriots to match Browner on Jacoby Jones whenever he's in the game, though. As for Torrey Smith, expect a nickle cornerback such as Logan Ryan to be on the Terp, with over-the-top help from free safety Devin McCourty.
New England's achilles heal on defense is defending the tight end. Opponents have been tearing the Patriots up, as New England is ranked 30th according to Football Outsider's DVOA against the tight end. The natural choice would be to match Patrick Chung against Baltimore's Owen Daniels in man coverage and use linebackers Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower in zone coverage. If this doesn't work, I could see New England assign Brandon Browner or even Devin McCourty to stop the Baltimore's TE's.
If New England can stop the running game without committing too many defenders to the box, they should have a variety of options in terms of scheme. While the Patriots have been playing the Cover 1 Lock scheme which everyone credits to Seattle for the past five years, I wouldn't be surprised to see them play a lot more of Cover 2 Match. While Cover 1 Lock would allow for strong safety Patrick Chung to rotate down as a robber player and give the inside linebackers the ability to drop into zones to take away seam passes and crossers, the safer bet to avoid the big play is Cover 2 Match. Cover 2 Match relies on pattern recognition and great communication by the defensive backs, so I'm sure defensive coordinator Matt Patricia has spent many hours in the film room with the defensive backs this week. Whenever New England decides to stay in a 2-deep safety shell, I wouldn't be surprised if Duron Harmon sees action at safety as opposed to the less fluid Chung. Regardless of scheme, expect New England's defensive backs to be physical at the line of scrimmage to throw off the timing of Baltimore's passing game.
Both the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens have strong special teams units, with New England ranked 5th according to DVOA, and Baltimore slightly superior at 2nd in the league. Baltimore is excellent at punt coverage, Justin Tucker is near-automatic at field goals, and Jacoby Jones is always a threat to house call a kickoff if given the chance. If either team could make a big play in special teams, that could be a huge swing in the final outcome of the game. There's a reason my high school football coach always wrote “KDO” on the top of our scouting reports each week, as that's how the game is won. Kicking game provides big plays, defense stops big plays, and the offense has to score enough points to win.
I have been worried all week about this matchup from a Patriots perspective, as I'd rather face any other team left in the playoffs, including Seattle. As the week has gone along, however, I've become more and more confident in New England's ability to be victorious this Saturday. While John Harbaugh is a GREAT coach and his teams are always disciplined and they play smart, Bill Belichick is my idol for a reason. The Patriots' coach always has his teams ready to play, and I expect he spent this week telling his team exactly what they need to do to win and exactly what they can't do in order to prevent defeat. With two strong defenses, I expect a low scoring game, but in the end, I feel the New England Patriots will prevail over the Baltimore Ravens, 27-17.
**Jason Farias is the Head Coach of the Cottbus Crayfish, a men's American football team in Germany. He has previously served as offensive coordinator at Cambridge Rindge & Latin High School as well as with the Reus Imperials in Spain. Before this, he coached defensive line and special teams for the Boston Militia, a women's pro football team, and he was a position coach for Marshfield High School. When not coaching, Jason enjoyed reading about football, talking about football, and dreaming about football.
This Saturday, the New England Patriots welcome the Baltimore Ravens to the confines of Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts for what surely will be a physical chess match in the divisional round of the AFC playoffs. Fresh off a bye week which was sorely needed for a variety of reasons which I hope to expand upon, Bill Belichick's squad will try to defend its home turf against a Ravens team that has complete confidence in its ability to win this contest. While some analysts will look at Baltimore's playoff history against New England with trepidation, I will attempt to provide insightful analysis as to the key matchups which will ultimately decide which team advances in the playoffs.
After the New England Patriots started the season with a record of 2-2, many media members and Patriots fans alike were seriously doubting New England's mental toughness, level of talent, and even the long-term commitment to Tom Brady. The team was able to turn things around beginning with the Week 5 demolition of the fraudulent Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals. That game was the first in a seven game win streak which included comfortable wins over Denver, Indianapolis, and Detroit. During this seven-game stretch, New England averaged 39.6 points per game. Unfortunately, beginning with the Green Bay game, New England's offense sputtered down the stretch with ugly wins against the Jets and Chargers and a Week 17 loss against the Bills. Congratulations, Buffalo, for finally winning at Gillette Stadium against our back-ups!
Interesting to note regarding the final stretch of the season for New England was the injuries to the team, in particular the offense, which forced lesser players to see the field. Julian Edelman was gimpy for much of the season, and he missed the final two games of the regular season, and Rob Gronkowski was held out of the final game of the season. Dan Connolly, left guard, and Sebastian Vollmer, at right tackle, missed the final two games of the season on the offensive line. Dont'a Hightower at linebacker and Brandon Browner at cornerback, also missed the final game of the season. On offense, Tom Brady was forced to hold onto the football longer due to the inability of receivers to separate, and with an inferior offensive line, he was often pressured and under constant duress. The nadir of offensive futility came in Week 16 versus Rex Ryan's New York Jets. Brady finished that game 23 of 35 passing for 182 yards, one touchdown and one interception.
Aside from improving overall team health, the bye week has also allowed Bill Belichick and the coaching staff to self-scout their own tendencies. More so than any other team in the league, New England does an excellent job of calling plays on both offense and defense which fit the down, distance, and overall situation at hand. With self-scouting, the Patriots can find their tendencies (such as running the ball when Legarrette Blount is in the game) and use this knowledge against opponents by going against the grain. Football teams often break down a team by personnel grouping, down and distance, field location, hash, formation, and many other variables. If a certain situation says Patriots run towards the TE 68% of the time, maybe they use this knowledge and call a play-action pass. Suffice it to say, at this point in the season, there's no point to hold anything back in terms of play-calling.
A key theme to the aforementioned Jets game, as well as many of New England's losses over the past fifteen years of excellence, has been pressure up the middle of the offensive line. Interesting to note with the return of all starters to New England's offensive line is this statistical split: with an offensive line of Solder-Connolly-Stork-Wendell-Vollmer, Brady has been sacked 4 times and he's had a QB rating of 103.6 over an 8 game sample size; with any other offensive line combination, Brady's been sacked 17 times, and his QB rating dips to 89.8 over that same 8 game sample size. The New England offensive line has a daunting task ahead of itself against the Baltimore Ravens' ferocious front seven, which tied for 2nd in the NFL with 49 sacks during the regular season. Baltimore, in addition to the ability to harass opponents on passing downs, is ranked 5th in the league against the run according to Football Outsider's DVOA (Please check their site out as they provide statistical analysis of football on a level similar to that of WAR and OPS for baseball).
The matchup between Baltimore's front seven and New England's offensive line will be pivotal to the outcome of the game. While I'll concede that Baltimore has the edge in this matchup, there are ways for New England to mask this weakness against Baltimore. To understand what New England may do against the Ravens, one needs to look no further than their Week 12 matchup against the Detroit Lions and Ndamukong Suh et al.
In the game against Detroit, New England conceded the run game for the most part, instead relying on their matchups in the passing game. Tom Brady finished that game 38 of 53 for 349 yards and 2 touchdowns with 1 interception. A majority of the damage was done against Detroit's secondary with horizontal stretches which got the ball out of TB12's hands quickly before the pass rush was able to affect him. Brady distributed the ball evenly, with no receiver gaining over 100 yards. Interestingly, since Detroit doubled Rob Gronkowski for a majority of the game, Tim Wright (an H-back type) scored two red zone touchdowns. Also, when Detroit had focused much of its attention on stopping New England's quick game and screen game, Legarrette Blount scored two touchdowns.
Baltimore possesses a formidable defensive line rotation, with Terrell (I'm an Orc from LOTR) Suggs and Elvis Dumervil providing pressure off the edges. These two players will place tremendous stress on Nate Solder and Sebastian Vollmer, respectively. I expect New England to deploy Shane Vereen in the passing game as an outlet in the face of pressure. Additionally, New England could use 6- and 7-man protections when they need to take shots down the field. Personally, I would use running backs, tight ends, and fullback James Devlin, to chip Baltimore's two edge rushers like knats attacking ripened fruit. Not only does Baltimore possess two great edge rushers, but their interior defensive line is equally adept at pressuring quarterbacks. Haloti Ngata is surprisingly effective collapsing the pocket, as is Pernell McPhee, a 6'2” 280 pound hybrid linebacker who sometimes slides inside to defensive tackle. The Ravens add depth with former Florida State Seminole Timmy (Timmay!!) Jernigan.
When passing the football, New England should try to take advantage of Baltimore's ineffectiveness against the TE. Baltimore is ranked 20th in the League according to DVOA against TE's, and although Will Hill has played on his head recently, including shutting down Jimmy Graham of New Orleans, Gronkowski is another animal. Not only is he great in the passing game, particularly the red zone, but he's also, in my biased opinion, the best run blocking TE in the NFL.
Baltimore sports a diminished Ladarius Webb and Some Guy at cornerback, so the back end of the defense is clearly an area the Patriots will try to exploit. Webb was consistently targeted in pass coverage by the Steelers last week, so that clearly shows what other teams across the league think about the secondary's ability to cover for any length of time. While I expect Webb to follow around Julian Edelman, given he's matched up well against Julian and Wes Welker in the past, the other matchups on the outside are enticing. Whomoever Some Guy is covering should see a steady diet of quick passes, screens, and double moves. Baltimore has given up the third worst QBR to opposing quarterbacks on passes that travel 15 or more yards downfield. While the deep ball is clearly not Tom Brady's gravy train, the Patriots should attempt at least one or two play-action max protect shots this game.
Whenever New England does decide to run the football, they will want to be prudent about where and how they go to the ground. Haloti Ngata, back from a 4-game PED suspension, was an absolute beast against the Pittsburgh Steelers. At inside linebacker are Daryl Smith and C.J. Mosley, the latter of which is in consideration for Defensive Rookie of the Year. While Baltimore often uses Courtney Upshaw as an edge-setting Sam linebacker in running situations, New England could take advantage of Elvis Dumervil's small 6'0” 250 pound frame in the running game. I would expect New England to use 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends) with Michael Hoomanawanui at the traditional Y spot to block at the point of attack, and Rob Gronkowski as the H-back/Flex position. Hoo-Man also could stay in for pass-protection purposes.
I expect New England to deploy the no-huddle offense more often than they usually have this 2014 season, as it's proven to be an effective tool against the Ravens in the past. The no-huddle can slow down the pass rush, tire out defensive linemen, and take advantage of personnel matchups whenever New England feels the Ravens don't have the proper defenders on the field. The Patriots must be judicial about how much they go no-huddle, however, as I feel Baltimore's best strategy for winning this game is controlling the clock and winning the field position game, thus decreasing New England's offensive opportunities.
I will be completely honest about this: New England's defense this 2014-2015 season is the best defense they've had since the 2003 and 2004 seasons when the likes of Ty Law and Rodney Harrison were patrolling the secondary while Tedy Bruschi and Richard Seymour anchored the front seven.
On the defensive line, Vince Wilfork and Alan Branch form 700 pounds of immovable object at defensive tackle, and their job is often to use two-gap techniques, thus keeping linemen from getting to the linebackers. Their success could prove pivotal to this game, as I expect Baltimore to try to establish the run with Offensive Coordinator Gary Kubiak's zone blocking scheme. Damian Easley could have an increased role this week, as his ability to explode off the ball and penetrate gaps is the type of destruction which plagues the zone running game. At defensive end for the Patriots are Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich. These players have to face the challenge of setting the edge against Kubiak's zone blocking scheme or else Justin Forsett and the other Ravens backs will be able to bust runs to the outside for long games.
Chandler Jones, who has recorded 1.5 sacks in two games since returning from a hip injury which cost him 6 games, will look to get pressure on Joe Flacco. Whether Eugene Monroe is able to return to the lineup at left tackle after missing a few weeks with injury is unknown at this point; however, New England should try to take advantage of the rusty and possibly hobbled Monroe or their current replacement, James Hurst. Hurst allowed six quarterback hurries against Pittsburgh. On the other side of the offensive line, the Ravens have moved All-Pro guard Marshal Yanda to right tackle to alleviate pressure issues on that side of the ball. Look for New England to deploy multiple A-gap pressures, especially from the versatile Collins, to confuse and overwhelm Baltimore's interior line. The rookie defensive tackle Damian Easley should see more playing time on passing downs give Baltimore's reliance on 5- and 7-step drops which are simple too deep for Air Vince Wilfork to be effective.
Football is a game of match-ups, and New England's secondary against Baltimore's receivers is an interesting one. Darrell Revis, back to his All-Pro form, will most likely be matched up against Steve Smith Sr. In three prior games against the 35-year old wideout, Revis has given up two completions for 21 yards. Brandon Browner, at 6'4”, may not be the best match-up against Torrey Smith on the other side, as the former Maryland Terrapin's small frame and explosive nature could prove troublesome. Torrey Smith leads the league in pass interference calls, and Browner isn't exactly a saint out there. I do expect the Patriots to match Browner on Jacoby Jones whenever he's in the game, though. As for Torrey Smith, expect a nickle cornerback such as Logan Ryan to be on the Terp, with over-the-top help from free safety Devin McCourty.
New England's achilles heal on defense is defending the tight end. Opponents have been tearing the Patriots up, as New England is ranked 30th according to Football Outsider's DVOA against the tight end. The natural choice would be to match Patrick Chung against Baltimore's Owen Daniels in man coverage and use linebackers Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower in zone coverage. If this doesn't work, I could see New England assign Brandon Browner or even Devin McCourty to stop the Baltimore's TE's.
If New England can stop the running game without committing too many defenders to the box, they should have a variety of options in terms of scheme. While the Patriots have been playing the Cover 1 Lock scheme which everyone credits to Seattle for the past five years, I wouldn't be surprised to see them play a lot more of Cover 2 Match. While Cover 1 Lock would allow for strong safety Patrick Chung to rotate down as a robber player and give the inside linebackers the ability to drop into zones to take away seam passes and crossers, the safer bet to avoid the big play is Cover 2 Match. Cover 2 Match relies on pattern recognition and great communication by the defensive backs, so I'm sure defensive coordinator Matt Patricia has spent many hours in the film room with the defensive backs this week. Whenever New England decides to stay in a 2-deep safety shell, I wouldn't be surprised if Duron Harmon sees action at safety as opposed to the less fluid Chung. Regardless of scheme, expect New England's defensive backs to be physical at the line of scrimmage to throw off the timing of Baltimore's passing game.
Both the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens have strong special teams units, with New England ranked 5th according to DVOA, and Baltimore slightly superior at 2nd in the league. Baltimore is excellent at punt coverage, Justin Tucker is near-automatic at field goals, and Jacoby Jones is always a threat to house call a kickoff if given the chance. If either team could make a big play in special teams, that could be a huge swing in the final outcome of the game. There's a reason my high school football coach always wrote “KDO” on the top of our scouting reports each week, as that's how the game is won. Kicking game provides big plays, defense stops big plays, and the offense has to score enough points to win.
I have been worried all week about this matchup from a Patriots perspective, as I'd rather face any other team left in the playoffs, including Seattle. As the week has gone along, however, I've become more and more confident in New England's ability to be victorious this Saturday. While John Harbaugh is a GREAT coach and his teams are always disciplined and they play smart, Bill Belichick is my idol for a reason. The Patriots' coach always has his teams ready to play, and I expect he spent this week telling his team exactly what they need to do to win and exactly what they can't do in order to prevent defeat. With two strong defenses, I expect a low scoring game, but in the end, I feel the New England Patriots will prevail over the Baltimore Ravens, 27-17.
**Jason Farias is the Head Coach of the Cottbus Crayfish, a men's American football team in Germany. He has previously served as offensive coordinator at Cambridge Rindge & Latin High School as well as with the Reus Imperials in Spain. Before this, he coached defensive line and special teams for the Boston Militia, a women's pro football team, and he was a position coach for Marshfield High School. When not coaching, Jason enjoyed reading about football, talking about football, and dreaming about football.
AFC DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS! (RAVENS GAME ONLY)
Nothing has created more chaos and anxiety in my mind this week than simply writing this post. Believe it or not, I was downright confident and serene while writing my prediction that the Ravens would beat the Steelers. I didn't care that the Steelers bombed the Ravens in Week 9 because the Ravens secondary had changed so dramatically since that point. I also knew just how different the Steelers offense would be without Le'Veon Bell, especially because of the fact that the Ravens defense has improved by leaps and bounds since the beginning of the second half of the season.
This week, I scoured the internet for footage of the Patriots from games they lost or simply narrowly won. I tried to find patterns and trends among the performances of the few teams that challenged or beat the Patriots. I desperately tried to find anything to give myself reassurance and hope that the Ravens had a good chance of once again winning in Foxborough....and I found it.
It's not that I'm still not incredibly nervous as I type these words, but I absolutely found statistics and facts to demonstrate that one of the most complete Patriots teams in nearly a decade still has weaknesses that the Ravens are fully capable of exploiting. I ordinarily worry that the Ravens are going to struggle to stop the Patriots from scoring. It's possible that may happen at times, but that's not actually the thing that worries me the most. The Ravens went up against a Steelers team last week that had the 27th ranked pass defense in the league. The Patriots, despite the presence of Darrelle Revis, aren't exactly elite with the 17th ranked pass defense, but they have a the 8th ranked run defense and the 8th ranked redzone defense.
It doesn't make a tremendous difference who wins the Colts-Broncos game, because the Ravens will be forced to go on the road against either team if they can manage to escape Foxborough with a win. Peyton Manning has shown weakness in the post-season for years, but it's a little bit sad to see him finally start to show significant wear during second half of the regular season as well. I've hated watching my favorite team get picked apart with surgical precision by one of the greatest field generals in the history of the game, but I still marvel at just how the man operates. The day that Peyton Manning hangs up his cleats for good may be near, but I'm hoping the old man has at least one great performance left in him to show the young guys at least once last time just who the NFL's greatest tactician truly is.
It may not matter in the end who wins the AFC. The Seahawks appear frighteningly dominant, and it's difficult to imagine any offense in the AFC having a tremendous success against that suffocating defense. But maybe, just maybe the Seahawks will demonstrate some type of weakness that can be studied and exploited by remaining AFC teams in the next couple of weeks. If there's one thing of which I'm confident it's that the winner of Saturday's Ravens-Patriots match-up will ultimately represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. The Colts have little defense to speak of outside of Lucas Oil Stadium, and the Broncos are limited by Peyton Manning's declining physical ability. With that said, let's begin with the game everyone is dying to see. Let's take a look at the Colts-Bronc....heh heh, just kidding. Let's first take a look at the upcoming Ravens-Patriots match-up!
RAVENS AT PATRIOTS
A tremendous weight was lifted off of my shoulders as the clock hit 0:00 last Saturday night. The Ravens had trounced the Steelers in Pittsburgh--in the playoffs. I was confident the Ravens would win as soon as the final word came 24 hours earlier that Le'Veon Bell was ruled out. Despite that confidence leading up to the game, I actually initially expected the Ravens would be one-and-done in the playoffs this season right after they beat the Browns and the Chiefs beat the Chargers a week earlier. I was pleased that our guys simply made it back to the big dance because they didn't appear to be one of the best teams in the league for much of the regular season. Suddenly, the pleasant surprise of the Ravens domination over the Steelers has been replaced by utter anxiety from both lofty expectations and the fear of those expectations being dashed by one of the teams that I simultaneously despise and respect the most.
The New England Patriots have been the model of consistency in the AFC for well over a decade. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have formed a lasting coach-quarterback combination the likes of which we may never see in a long time. Seldom do head coaches last as long as Belichick, and if they do, seldom to they have at their disposal the same starting quarterback for a decade and a half. Winning 12 games a season has become routine for the Patriots, and they've been to startling number of AFC Championships and Super Bowls during the Brady-Belichick era. The cast of players surrounding Brady has changed drastically from year to year, but Bill and Tom always seem to find a way to make magic with the pieces they have. Those are the reasons I respect the Patriots.
I forgot to mention, however, the way the league protects the Patriots' quarterback and adjusts rules for Tom Brady when he whines. There is actually something commonly referred to as the "Brady Rule", and let's not forget that pesky "Tuck Rule" without which the Patriots would not have won one of their glorious Super Bowls. Brady has even had the nerve to follow referees off the field after losing a game and scream obscenities at them because he didn't like their call...for all to hear...on national television. If you've forgotten that scene, here's the link:
TOM BRADY YELLING AT REFEREE
Then there's Spygate and the evidence that showed the Patriots were not only illegally videotaping their opponents signals but using a secret frequency to communicate with Brady long after he point at which communication would ordinarily be cut off (according to the rules) to a quarterback within the final 15 seconds on the play clock. This is why I despise the Patriots--special treatment, cheating, whining.
Lo and behold, the Patriots can presumably no longer cheat through those methods, the Tuck Rule is no longer in effect, and the Patriots STILL find a way to beat nearly every one of their opponents year in and year out. One has to give them credit for maintaining consistency long after the lingering flames of the cheating scandal died down. The Patriots fans will turn right around and criticize Ray Lewis for having been tried for murder, and they'll bring up Ray Rice and insist that the Ravens knew everything about the incident and attempted in vain to cover it up. They'll bring up that they hate Terrell Suggs, and how they hope to shut his mouth with a victory.
Neither team's fans can claim moral high-ground because BOTH teams have been mired in numerous scandals for years now. The best thing one can do is stop dwelling on off the field issues and stick to discussion of the upcoming showdown. The most satisfying thing as a Ravens fan, however, has been the Ravens' recent post-season success against this impressive franchise. Nearly everyone reading this should be aware that the Ravens hold a 2-1 playoff record against the Patriots, and the one loss the Ravens suffered was painfully close.
The Ravens team that last beat the Patriots in the AFC Championship two years ago is no more. The Ravens defense looks almost entirely different except for Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata, and Courtney Upshaw. Lardarius Webb was on the team that season, but he was out with an injury. Jimmy Smith was on the active roster against the Patriots that season, but he's CURRENTLY out with a season-ending injury. The Patriots look dramatically different as well. Tom Brady is still around, but Rob Gronkowski will be present for the first time against the Ravens since 2011. There are probably more new Patriots defensive cogs than I know about, but there are some seriously impressive pieces. Darrelle Revis is certainly one athlete I never expected to see in a Patriots uniform, but his presence has helped to bring the Patriots defense back to life after many years of mediocrity. I have heard much about Jamie Collins and what a tremendous job he's done in the absence of Jerod Mayo.
These teams are different from those that took the field in 2012 in more ways than they are similar, but the quarterbacks and head coaches haven't changed--nor has the total and utter hatred. Maybe these teams don't play the same brand of football, but they're similar in more ways than their respective fans would prefer to admit. Only fierce competition and a certain level of mutual respect breeds this level of resentment, and I expect nothing less this weekend.
STRATEGIC AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
I heard a journalist from Bleacher Report proclaim on the radio only minutes ago that the Ravens have absolutely NO one that can cover Rob Gronkowski. All week I've listened radio hosts and television analysts speak of the Patriots star tight end as though there is literally no one in the NFL capable of defending him in any capacity. There's no doubt that Gronk is the best tight end in the league when healthy, but I wanted to investigate exactly what kind of season the young guy was having so far. Gronkowski certainly has amassed an impressive number of receiving yards (1,124) and touchdowns (12) in 2014. To say the man is uncoverable, however, is simply false. Gronk is nearly impossible to shut down, but uncoverable? No way.
Rob Gronkowski has been held out of the endzone entirely in one third of the 15 games he's played this season. He has only once scored more than one touchdown, and that 3-touchdown performance came against an embarrassingly bad Chicago Bears defense right before Halloween. There was even an impressive 5-game stretch wherein Gronk had 3 games with over 100 receiving yards and a collective 5 touchdowns. In the last 6 games of Gronk's regular season, however, the smiley behemoth has failed to once total 100 or more receiving yards and was even held to a mere 31 receiving yards against the Jets in Week 16. That isn't to say that Gronk's production was poor over the final 6 weeks. He still managed to score a total of 4 touchdowns and had two games with 98 and 96 receiving yards.
Because of his superb ability to block, his incredible hands, and his ability to shed tacklers, Rob Gronkowski is the most physically dominant and skillfully complete tight end in the league. From a receiving standpoint, however, there is one other major target that has exceeded Rob Gronkowski in over the past 4 seasons...and the Ravens already faced him in 2014.
Jimmy Graham was not a part nearly the same caliber offense to which he had likely grown accustomed during his career as a Saint. The Saints defense was porous and weak, and the Saints offense was markedly less effective without Darren Sproles. The Saints mortgaged their future and let a handful of integral cogs go to other teams specifically in order to clear salary cap space to sign Jairus Byrd a lucrative deal. Byrd suffered a season-ending injury, and the Saints watched the Eagles win 10 games with the aid of a still-explosive Sproles. The Saints, nevertheless, continued to put up elite passing yardage numbers, and that meant plenty of targets to one of the only weapons available: Jimmy Graham.
Graham is 6'7" and 265 pounds. He, a former college basketball player, possesses a fantastic vertical leaping ability and great hands. Graham in his worst season in 4 years still managed to catch for nearly 900 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Because of his incredible height and athleticism, Jimmy Graham is incredibly difficult to cover--but the Ravens were able to do it. Starting Ravens safety, Will Hill, had great success covering Graham for most of the Week 12 match-up in New Orleans. Hill successfully limited Graham to just 47 receiving yards, though he did have two touchdowns. It must be noted that one of those touchdowns was from the 2 yard line in garbage time, and otherwise Hill did an excellent job in coverage including a pick-6 of a throw to Graham.
The difference between Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski is physicality. Gronkowski almost reminds me of the tight end version of J.J. Watt. Watt is, of course, a far more physically dominant athlete than Gronk, but for his position, Gronk is the king. Gronkowski will be used in two major ways against the Ravens. First, he'll be utilized to help slow the Ravens edge rush. Gronk and Suggs got fairly chippy in the 2011 AFC Championship game, and I expect to see more of that. The second way Gronk will be used is as a receiver over the middle and up the seam. I fully expect the Ravens to use the likes of Terrell Suggs and Courtney Upshaw to get physical with Gronk at the line of scrimmage in order ruin Brady's timing with the giant receiver and allow Ravens pass rushers to descend upon Brady. Once Gronk ultimately gets into his route, the Ravens can utilize both safety, Will Hill, and linebacker, C.J. Mosley to cover the star tight end.
One of the biggest misconceptions about this game is that the Patriots have been offensively dominant this season. There's no question that New England has had games where they scored 40 and even 50+ points, but the Patriots have only scored over 23 points once in the last 5 games, and that 41 point performance came against a Dolphins team that just lost its talented starting free safety. The Patriots lost in Green Bay and only scored 21 points in the same venue that the Falcons scored 37 shortly thereafter. The Patriots twice only narrowly the defeated a hopeless Jets team this season, and each time coulda-shoulda-woulda been won by a field goal that never ended up materializing. In order to thoroughly examine the Patriots' weaknesses, we must take a look a both Jets games and each of the 3 legitimate losses the Patriots suffered during the regular season. It's important to note that the season-ending loss to the Buffalo Bills isn't relevant as the Patriots sat critical starters in order to have similar results as an extra bye week.
The 4 teams to demonstrate significant success against the Patriots this season were the Dolphins, Chiefs, Jets, and Packers. The Jets, of course, played the Patriots twice this season, so these teams accounted for a total of 5 games. In all but 1 of these 5 games, Tom Brady was sacked at least 3 times, and in two of these games Brady was sacked 4 times each. Both the Dolphins and Chiefs had great success getting pressure on Brady, but that's not entirely surprising considering that those two teams possessed top 5 pass defenses for most of this season. The Jets, on the other hand, had a pass defense that ranked in the middle of the pack, and that's exactly why their games provide the greatest blueprint for the Ravens' success in Foxborough this weekend.
The Jets not only sacked Brady a total of 7 times this season, they also ran for an average of 166 yards per game against the Patriots this season, and that was without a serious passing game or an even moderately effective quarterback. In their first game against the Patriots in Foxborough, the Jets absolutely dominated the time of possession with 40 minutes and 54 seconds as opposed to the Patriots' 19 minutes and 6 seconds. The Jets and their 5th ranked run defense also limited the Patriots to only 63 yards on the ground. Tom Brady did have 3 passing touchdowns and the Patriots ultimately won the game, but one has to wonder how a team like the Jets COULD have done with a reasonably successful pass offense.
The Ravens finished with an even more highly ranked run defense than the Jets, and their pass rush is unquestionably better as well. The Jets typically play highly competitive games against the Patriots for the same reasons the Ravens do: physicality and familiarity. The Jets, like the Ravens, have tough defensive linemen and an intimate knowledge of Bill Belichick's offensive tendencies. Bill Belichick is incredibly creative and his offensive systems are typically highly sophisticated, but the Jets and Ravens know full well that the key to stopping the Patriots offense is ruin Tom Brady's rhythm and ability to step up in the pocket to deliver accurate passes.
No longer do the Ravens simply rely on Terrell Suggs (12 sacks) and Haloti Ngata (2 sacks) to generate a pass rush by themselves. The ascendance of Pernell McPhee (6.5 sacks), Timmy Jernigan (4 sacks), C.J. Mosley (3 sacks), and of course Elvis Dumervil (17 sacks) has meant pressure comes from all directions with this defensive front. Note: those sack totals don't count those accumulated in last week's playoff game. Tom Brady is a great quarterback with a quick release, but his mobility is limited compared to many of the quarterback the Ravens faced this season including Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill, and even Andy Dalton. The Ravens only just finished placing a fantastic amount of pressure on a far more mobile Steelers quarterback last week, and the Steelers receivers are dramatically more explosive than any on the Patriots' roster. Sorry Patriots fans, Antonio Brown, Markus Wheaton, and Martavis Bryant make up a far more potent receiving group than Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell.
That isn't to say that Edelman and LaFell aren't quite good in their own right. Both receivers had nearly 1000 yards receiving, and LaFell scored 7 touchdowns. Edelman, in fact, gave last year's Ravens secondary absolute fits en route to an embarrassing rout in Baltimore. The combination of LaFell, Edelman, and Gronkowski can be quite potent if combined with a dose of successful running of the football and a fast paced offense to slow the pass rush and keep the defense on its heels. The Patriots will look to establish a passing rhythm and then run the football once things have opened up over the middle. There is no question that this can be an impressive offense, but it has struggled to pull away from teams built in similar fashion to the Ravens.
One of the biggest misconceptions about the Ravens is the idea that the Ravens have a horrible secondary at this point in the season...they do not. That secondary is far from the best we've seen in Baltimore, but it finished the season limiting the last 4 teams to an average of 173 yards per game, and then it helped to hold the Steelers to a single touchdown in Pittsburgh last weekend. The emergence of Rashaan Melvis and the solidification the safety depth chart has helped to limit opposing offenses even when the Ravens themselves struggle to move the ball.
The Ravens did NOT struggle to move the football against the Steelers. Joe Flacco led a fast-paced passing attack that mixed in a healthy dose of running in the first half. The run sputtered in the second half, but Flacco was able to put the team on his shoulders and lead the Ravens to a 30-17 victory over a team that had beaten them 43-23 in that very same venue around mid-season. The Ravens do not have the good fortune going up against the Steelers cornerbacks again. The Patriots corners are FAR more talented, and receivers such a Steve Smith may struggle to separate against defenders such as Darrelle Revis. The Patriots managed to put up 40 sacks on the season, but are not generally regarded as a team that gets heavy pressure on quarterbacks. That, in fact, is a large reason that their pass defense (17th) is only ranked 6 places ahead of the Ravens (23rd). As good as their corners have proven to be, the Patriots have still allowed some sizable passing yardage totals in recent weeks such as 348 yards to the Aaron Rodgers, 346 yards to Ryan Tannehill, and 303 yards to Andrew Luck. It's not that the Ravens haven't given up some massive passing yardage totals this season, but they've given up very little since this particular secondary group came together.
I have more thoughts regarding this showdown than most people would probably want to read, but I'll boil this game down to the most important match-ups. The Ravens front 7 will both be able to get to Tom Brady and stop the Patriots from running the football. The Patriots rank 18th in the league in rushing, and the Ravens rank 4th in the league in run defense. The Ravens have a fierce edge rush, but with healthy Haloti Ngata , Timmy Jernigan, and Pernell McPhee, Tom Brady will not often feel comfortable stepping up in the pocket. Rashaan Melvin, Lardarius Webb, and company have recently gone up against the likes of Andre Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, Antonio Brown, and Mike Wallace. The Patriots wide receivers are no sort unusual challenge. Rob Gronkowski will clearly be a threat all game long, but it's highly unlikely that he'll account for more than a single score as he has only had one multi-score game all season and the Ravens have the 2nd ranked redzone defense in the league.
The Ravens offensive line might have trouble at times opening up holes for Ravens running backs, but that will likely be because the Patriots will have to commit heavily to stopping the run. This, like in the Steelers game, should open things up for the passing attack. The Patriots are cognizant of the fact that the Ravens have far and away the most yards off of pass interference in the league, and second place is quite distant. They have stated, thus, that they're going to have to adjust the way they cover receivers such as Torrey Smith. The strategy of putting Revis on Steve Smith and double-teaming Torrey might have worked in years past, but the Ravens have too many receiving weapons at this point. Owen Daniels and Crocket Gillmore have come up with fantastic clutch catches recently, and Kyle Juszczyk is always available to catch passes out of the backfield. Kamar Aiken and Marlon Brown both provide big, athletic targets that can separate from defenders and use their size to create mismatches, especially Brown. Double-teaming Torrey Smith may have been the key to stopping the Ravens offense last season, but this season features better protection from the offensive line, a far better rushing attack, and an impressive array of receivers the likes of which the Ravens have never seen.
If Geno Smith can twice go up against the Patriots and come only a field goal short of beating Brady and Belichick, the Ravens can ABSOLUTELY do the same. This is a vastly improved Ravens secondary whether or not people want to accept it. I said it last week and few believed me, but the Ravens held one of the league's greatest quarterbacks with one of the league's greatest receiving corps to a single touchdown and a handful of field goals. This healthy and ferocious pass rush greatly aids the secondary's performance, and the vast improvement of the secondary buys time for the pass rush to bear down on its prey.
PREDICTION:
There's no question in my mind that this should be an epic battle. My biggest regret is that these two teams couldn't see one another in the AFC Championship game, because I firmly believe the winner of this game will go on to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. The Ravens pass rush and improved secondary should be enough to limit the Patriots offense in similar fashion to what the Jets were able to accomplish in Week 16. The Ravens have the second ranked redzone defense in the league, and their run defense absolutely elite. The Patriots receiving corps is nothing the Ravens haven't already faced this season, and the Ravens have actually faced numerous pass defenses ranked much higher than New England's including Miami (6th), San Diego (4th), and Cleveland (8th). The Ravens ultimately put up big passing yards against every single one of those elite pass defenses, and New England will be no different. This Ravens team is dialed in and ready for a return to the AFC Championship game. Call me a homer, call me biased, but I feel good going into this game, and I know Joe and the boys do too. RAVENS 27-20
BECAUSE OF TIME CONSTRAINTS, I WILL BE FORCED TO PUBLISH THE ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION FOR THE COLTS-BRONCOS GAME IN A SECOND PART ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE RAVENS-PATRIOTS GAME
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
This week, I scoured the internet for footage of the Patriots from games they lost or simply narrowly won. I tried to find patterns and trends among the performances of the few teams that challenged or beat the Patriots. I desperately tried to find anything to give myself reassurance and hope that the Ravens had a good chance of once again winning in Foxborough....and I found it.
It's not that I'm still not incredibly nervous as I type these words, but I absolutely found statistics and facts to demonstrate that one of the most complete Patriots teams in nearly a decade still has weaknesses that the Ravens are fully capable of exploiting. I ordinarily worry that the Ravens are going to struggle to stop the Patriots from scoring. It's possible that may happen at times, but that's not actually the thing that worries me the most. The Ravens went up against a Steelers team last week that had the 27th ranked pass defense in the league. The Patriots, despite the presence of Darrelle Revis, aren't exactly elite with the 17th ranked pass defense, but they have a the 8th ranked run defense and the 8th ranked redzone defense.
It doesn't make a tremendous difference who wins the Colts-Broncos game, because the Ravens will be forced to go on the road against either team if they can manage to escape Foxborough with a win. Peyton Manning has shown weakness in the post-season for years, but it's a little bit sad to see him finally start to show significant wear during second half of the regular season as well. I've hated watching my favorite team get picked apart with surgical precision by one of the greatest field generals in the history of the game, but I still marvel at just how the man operates. The day that Peyton Manning hangs up his cleats for good may be near, but I'm hoping the old man has at least one great performance left in him to show the young guys at least once last time just who the NFL's greatest tactician truly is.
It may not matter in the end who wins the AFC. The Seahawks appear frighteningly dominant, and it's difficult to imagine any offense in the AFC having a tremendous success against that suffocating defense. But maybe, just maybe the Seahawks will demonstrate some type of weakness that can be studied and exploited by remaining AFC teams in the next couple of weeks. If there's one thing of which I'm confident it's that the winner of Saturday's Ravens-Patriots match-up will ultimately represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. The Colts have little defense to speak of outside of Lucas Oil Stadium, and the Broncos are limited by Peyton Manning's declining physical ability. With that said, let's begin with the game everyone is dying to see. Let's take a look at the Colts-Bronc....heh heh, just kidding. Let's first take a look at the upcoming Ravens-Patriots match-up!
RAVENS AT PATRIOTS
A tremendous weight was lifted off of my shoulders as the clock hit 0:00 last Saturday night. The Ravens had trounced the Steelers in Pittsburgh--in the playoffs. I was confident the Ravens would win as soon as the final word came 24 hours earlier that Le'Veon Bell was ruled out. Despite that confidence leading up to the game, I actually initially expected the Ravens would be one-and-done in the playoffs this season right after they beat the Browns and the Chiefs beat the Chargers a week earlier. I was pleased that our guys simply made it back to the big dance because they didn't appear to be one of the best teams in the league for much of the regular season. Suddenly, the pleasant surprise of the Ravens domination over the Steelers has been replaced by utter anxiety from both lofty expectations and the fear of those expectations being dashed by one of the teams that I simultaneously despise and respect the most.
The New England Patriots have been the model of consistency in the AFC for well over a decade. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have formed a lasting coach-quarterback combination the likes of which we may never see in a long time. Seldom do head coaches last as long as Belichick, and if they do, seldom to they have at their disposal the same starting quarterback for a decade and a half. Winning 12 games a season has become routine for the Patriots, and they've been to startling number of AFC Championships and Super Bowls during the Brady-Belichick era. The cast of players surrounding Brady has changed drastically from year to year, but Bill and Tom always seem to find a way to make magic with the pieces they have. Those are the reasons I respect the Patriots.
I forgot to mention, however, the way the league protects the Patriots' quarterback and adjusts rules for Tom Brady when he whines. There is actually something commonly referred to as the "Brady Rule", and let's not forget that pesky "Tuck Rule" without which the Patriots would not have won one of their glorious Super Bowls. Brady has even had the nerve to follow referees off the field after losing a game and scream obscenities at them because he didn't like their call...for all to hear...on national television. If you've forgotten that scene, here's the link:
TOM BRADY YELLING AT REFEREE
Then there's Spygate and the evidence that showed the Patriots were not only illegally videotaping their opponents signals but using a secret frequency to communicate with Brady long after he point at which communication would ordinarily be cut off (according to the rules) to a quarterback within the final 15 seconds on the play clock. This is why I despise the Patriots--special treatment, cheating, whining.
Lo and behold, the Patriots can presumably no longer cheat through those methods, the Tuck Rule is no longer in effect, and the Patriots STILL find a way to beat nearly every one of their opponents year in and year out. One has to give them credit for maintaining consistency long after the lingering flames of the cheating scandal died down. The Patriots fans will turn right around and criticize Ray Lewis for having been tried for murder, and they'll bring up Ray Rice and insist that the Ravens knew everything about the incident and attempted in vain to cover it up. They'll bring up that they hate Terrell Suggs, and how they hope to shut his mouth with a victory.
Neither team's fans can claim moral high-ground because BOTH teams have been mired in numerous scandals for years now. The best thing one can do is stop dwelling on off the field issues and stick to discussion of the upcoming showdown. The most satisfying thing as a Ravens fan, however, has been the Ravens' recent post-season success against this impressive franchise. Nearly everyone reading this should be aware that the Ravens hold a 2-1 playoff record against the Patriots, and the one loss the Ravens suffered was painfully close.
The Ravens team that last beat the Patriots in the AFC Championship two years ago is no more. The Ravens defense looks almost entirely different except for Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata, and Courtney Upshaw. Lardarius Webb was on the team that season, but he was out with an injury. Jimmy Smith was on the active roster against the Patriots that season, but he's CURRENTLY out with a season-ending injury. The Patriots look dramatically different as well. Tom Brady is still around, but Rob Gronkowski will be present for the first time against the Ravens since 2011. There are probably more new Patriots defensive cogs than I know about, but there are some seriously impressive pieces. Darrelle Revis is certainly one athlete I never expected to see in a Patriots uniform, but his presence has helped to bring the Patriots defense back to life after many years of mediocrity. I have heard much about Jamie Collins and what a tremendous job he's done in the absence of Jerod Mayo.
These teams are different from those that took the field in 2012 in more ways than they are similar, but the quarterbacks and head coaches haven't changed--nor has the total and utter hatred. Maybe these teams don't play the same brand of football, but they're similar in more ways than their respective fans would prefer to admit. Only fierce competition and a certain level of mutual respect breeds this level of resentment, and I expect nothing less this weekend.
STRATEGIC AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
I heard a journalist from Bleacher Report proclaim on the radio only minutes ago that the Ravens have absolutely NO one that can cover Rob Gronkowski. All week I've listened radio hosts and television analysts speak of the Patriots star tight end as though there is literally no one in the NFL capable of defending him in any capacity. There's no doubt that Gronk is the best tight end in the league when healthy, but I wanted to investigate exactly what kind of season the young guy was having so far. Gronkowski certainly has amassed an impressive number of receiving yards (1,124) and touchdowns (12) in 2014. To say the man is uncoverable, however, is simply false. Gronk is nearly impossible to shut down, but uncoverable? No way.
Rob Gronkowski has been held out of the endzone entirely in one third of the 15 games he's played this season. He has only once scored more than one touchdown, and that 3-touchdown performance came against an embarrassingly bad Chicago Bears defense right before Halloween. There was even an impressive 5-game stretch wherein Gronk had 3 games with over 100 receiving yards and a collective 5 touchdowns. In the last 6 games of Gronk's regular season, however, the smiley behemoth has failed to once total 100 or more receiving yards and was even held to a mere 31 receiving yards against the Jets in Week 16. That isn't to say that Gronk's production was poor over the final 6 weeks. He still managed to score a total of 4 touchdowns and had two games with 98 and 96 receiving yards.
Because of his superb ability to block, his incredible hands, and his ability to shed tacklers, Rob Gronkowski is the most physically dominant and skillfully complete tight end in the league. From a receiving standpoint, however, there is one other major target that has exceeded Rob Gronkowski in over the past 4 seasons...and the Ravens already faced him in 2014.
Jimmy Graham was not a part nearly the same caliber offense to which he had likely grown accustomed during his career as a Saint. The Saints defense was porous and weak, and the Saints offense was markedly less effective without Darren Sproles. The Saints mortgaged their future and let a handful of integral cogs go to other teams specifically in order to clear salary cap space to sign Jairus Byrd a lucrative deal. Byrd suffered a season-ending injury, and the Saints watched the Eagles win 10 games with the aid of a still-explosive Sproles. The Saints, nevertheless, continued to put up elite passing yardage numbers, and that meant plenty of targets to one of the only weapons available: Jimmy Graham.
Graham is 6'7" and 265 pounds. He, a former college basketball player, possesses a fantastic vertical leaping ability and great hands. Graham in his worst season in 4 years still managed to catch for nearly 900 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Because of his incredible height and athleticism, Jimmy Graham is incredibly difficult to cover--but the Ravens were able to do it. Starting Ravens safety, Will Hill, had great success covering Graham for most of the Week 12 match-up in New Orleans. Hill successfully limited Graham to just 47 receiving yards, though he did have two touchdowns. It must be noted that one of those touchdowns was from the 2 yard line in garbage time, and otherwise Hill did an excellent job in coverage including a pick-6 of a throw to Graham.
The difference between Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski is physicality. Gronkowski almost reminds me of the tight end version of J.J. Watt. Watt is, of course, a far more physically dominant athlete than Gronk, but for his position, Gronk is the king. Gronkowski will be used in two major ways against the Ravens. First, he'll be utilized to help slow the Ravens edge rush. Gronk and Suggs got fairly chippy in the 2011 AFC Championship game, and I expect to see more of that. The second way Gronk will be used is as a receiver over the middle and up the seam. I fully expect the Ravens to use the likes of Terrell Suggs and Courtney Upshaw to get physical with Gronk at the line of scrimmage in order ruin Brady's timing with the giant receiver and allow Ravens pass rushers to descend upon Brady. Once Gronk ultimately gets into his route, the Ravens can utilize both safety, Will Hill, and linebacker, C.J. Mosley to cover the star tight end.
One of the biggest misconceptions about this game is that the Patriots have been offensively dominant this season. There's no question that New England has had games where they scored 40 and even 50+ points, but the Patriots have only scored over 23 points once in the last 5 games, and that 41 point performance came against a Dolphins team that just lost its talented starting free safety. The Patriots lost in Green Bay and only scored 21 points in the same venue that the Falcons scored 37 shortly thereafter. The Patriots twice only narrowly the defeated a hopeless Jets team this season, and each time coulda-shoulda-woulda been won by a field goal that never ended up materializing. In order to thoroughly examine the Patriots' weaknesses, we must take a look a both Jets games and each of the 3 legitimate losses the Patriots suffered during the regular season. It's important to note that the season-ending loss to the Buffalo Bills isn't relevant as the Patriots sat critical starters in order to have similar results as an extra bye week.
The 4 teams to demonstrate significant success against the Patriots this season were the Dolphins, Chiefs, Jets, and Packers. The Jets, of course, played the Patriots twice this season, so these teams accounted for a total of 5 games. In all but 1 of these 5 games, Tom Brady was sacked at least 3 times, and in two of these games Brady was sacked 4 times each. Both the Dolphins and Chiefs had great success getting pressure on Brady, but that's not entirely surprising considering that those two teams possessed top 5 pass defenses for most of this season. The Jets, on the other hand, had a pass defense that ranked in the middle of the pack, and that's exactly why their games provide the greatest blueprint for the Ravens' success in Foxborough this weekend.
The Jets not only sacked Brady a total of 7 times this season, they also ran for an average of 166 yards per game against the Patriots this season, and that was without a serious passing game or an even moderately effective quarterback. In their first game against the Patriots in Foxborough, the Jets absolutely dominated the time of possession with 40 minutes and 54 seconds as opposed to the Patriots' 19 minutes and 6 seconds. The Jets and their 5th ranked run defense also limited the Patriots to only 63 yards on the ground. Tom Brady did have 3 passing touchdowns and the Patriots ultimately won the game, but one has to wonder how a team like the Jets COULD have done with a reasonably successful pass offense.
The Ravens finished with an even more highly ranked run defense than the Jets, and their pass rush is unquestionably better as well. The Jets typically play highly competitive games against the Patriots for the same reasons the Ravens do: physicality and familiarity. The Jets, like the Ravens, have tough defensive linemen and an intimate knowledge of Bill Belichick's offensive tendencies. Bill Belichick is incredibly creative and his offensive systems are typically highly sophisticated, but the Jets and Ravens know full well that the key to stopping the Patriots offense is ruin Tom Brady's rhythm and ability to step up in the pocket to deliver accurate passes.
No longer do the Ravens simply rely on Terrell Suggs (12 sacks) and Haloti Ngata (2 sacks) to generate a pass rush by themselves. The ascendance of Pernell McPhee (6.5 sacks), Timmy Jernigan (4 sacks), C.J. Mosley (3 sacks), and of course Elvis Dumervil (17 sacks) has meant pressure comes from all directions with this defensive front. Note: those sack totals don't count those accumulated in last week's playoff game. Tom Brady is a great quarterback with a quick release, but his mobility is limited compared to many of the quarterback the Ravens faced this season including Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill, and even Andy Dalton. The Ravens only just finished placing a fantastic amount of pressure on a far more mobile Steelers quarterback last week, and the Steelers receivers are dramatically more explosive than any on the Patriots' roster. Sorry Patriots fans, Antonio Brown, Markus Wheaton, and Martavis Bryant make up a far more potent receiving group than Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell.
That isn't to say that Edelman and LaFell aren't quite good in their own right. Both receivers had nearly 1000 yards receiving, and LaFell scored 7 touchdowns. Edelman, in fact, gave last year's Ravens secondary absolute fits en route to an embarrassing rout in Baltimore. The combination of LaFell, Edelman, and Gronkowski can be quite potent if combined with a dose of successful running of the football and a fast paced offense to slow the pass rush and keep the defense on its heels. The Patriots will look to establish a passing rhythm and then run the football once things have opened up over the middle. There is no question that this can be an impressive offense, but it has struggled to pull away from teams built in similar fashion to the Ravens.
One of the biggest misconceptions about the Ravens is the idea that the Ravens have a horrible secondary at this point in the season...they do not. That secondary is far from the best we've seen in Baltimore, but it finished the season limiting the last 4 teams to an average of 173 yards per game, and then it helped to hold the Steelers to a single touchdown in Pittsburgh last weekend. The emergence of Rashaan Melvis and the solidification the safety depth chart has helped to limit opposing offenses even when the Ravens themselves struggle to move the ball.
The Ravens did NOT struggle to move the football against the Steelers. Joe Flacco led a fast-paced passing attack that mixed in a healthy dose of running in the first half. The run sputtered in the second half, but Flacco was able to put the team on his shoulders and lead the Ravens to a 30-17 victory over a team that had beaten them 43-23 in that very same venue around mid-season. The Ravens do not have the good fortune going up against the Steelers cornerbacks again. The Patriots corners are FAR more talented, and receivers such a Steve Smith may struggle to separate against defenders such as Darrelle Revis. The Patriots managed to put up 40 sacks on the season, but are not generally regarded as a team that gets heavy pressure on quarterbacks. That, in fact, is a large reason that their pass defense (17th) is only ranked 6 places ahead of the Ravens (23rd). As good as their corners have proven to be, the Patriots have still allowed some sizable passing yardage totals in recent weeks such as 348 yards to the Aaron Rodgers, 346 yards to Ryan Tannehill, and 303 yards to Andrew Luck. It's not that the Ravens haven't given up some massive passing yardage totals this season, but they've given up very little since this particular secondary group came together.
I have more thoughts regarding this showdown than most people would probably want to read, but I'll boil this game down to the most important match-ups. The Ravens front 7 will both be able to get to Tom Brady and stop the Patriots from running the football. The Patriots rank 18th in the league in rushing, and the Ravens rank 4th in the league in run defense. The Ravens have a fierce edge rush, but with healthy Haloti Ngata , Timmy Jernigan, and Pernell McPhee, Tom Brady will not often feel comfortable stepping up in the pocket. Rashaan Melvin, Lardarius Webb, and company have recently gone up against the likes of Andre Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, Antonio Brown, and Mike Wallace. The Patriots wide receivers are no sort unusual challenge. Rob Gronkowski will clearly be a threat all game long, but it's highly unlikely that he'll account for more than a single score as he has only had one multi-score game all season and the Ravens have the 2nd ranked redzone defense in the league.
The Ravens offensive line might have trouble at times opening up holes for Ravens running backs, but that will likely be because the Patriots will have to commit heavily to stopping the run. This, like in the Steelers game, should open things up for the passing attack. The Patriots are cognizant of the fact that the Ravens have far and away the most yards off of pass interference in the league, and second place is quite distant. They have stated, thus, that they're going to have to adjust the way they cover receivers such as Torrey Smith. The strategy of putting Revis on Steve Smith and double-teaming Torrey might have worked in years past, but the Ravens have too many receiving weapons at this point. Owen Daniels and Crocket Gillmore have come up with fantastic clutch catches recently, and Kyle Juszczyk is always available to catch passes out of the backfield. Kamar Aiken and Marlon Brown both provide big, athletic targets that can separate from defenders and use their size to create mismatches, especially Brown. Double-teaming Torrey Smith may have been the key to stopping the Ravens offense last season, but this season features better protection from the offensive line, a far better rushing attack, and an impressive array of receivers the likes of which the Ravens have never seen.
If Geno Smith can twice go up against the Patriots and come only a field goal short of beating Brady and Belichick, the Ravens can ABSOLUTELY do the same. This is a vastly improved Ravens secondary whether or not people want to accept it. I said it last week and few believed me, but the Ravens held one of the league's greatest quarterbacks with one of the league's greatest receiving corps to a single touchdown and a handful of field goals. This healthy and ferocious pass rush greatly aids the secondary's performance, and the vast improvement of the secondary buys time for the pass rush to bear down on its prey.
PREDICTION:
There's no question in my mind that this should be an epic battle. My biggest regret is that these two teams couldn't see one another in the AFC Championship game, because I firmly believe the winner of this game will go on to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. The Ravens pass rush and improved secondary should be enough to limit the Patriots offense in similar fashion to what the Jets were able to accomplish in Week 16. The Ravens have the second ranked redzone defense in the league, and their run defense absolutely elite. The Patriots receiving corps is nothing the Ravens haven't already faced this season, and the Ravens have actually faced numerous pass defenses ranked much higher than New England's including Miami (6th), San Diego (4th), and Cleveland (8th). The Ravens ultimately put up big passing yards against every single one of those elite pass defenses, and New England will be no different. This Ravens team is dialed in and ready for a return to the AFC Championship game. Call me a homer, call me biased, but I feel good going into this game, and I know Joe and the boys do too. RAVENS 27-20
BECAUSE OF TIME CONSTRAINTS, I WILL BE FORCED TO PUBLISH THE ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION FOR THE COLTS-BRONCOS GAME IN A SECOND PART ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE RAVENS-PATRIOTS GAME
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Friday, January 9, 2015
NFC DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS!
The way the Seahawks have been playing in the last seven weeks, it's difficult to imagine any other team going into Seattle and pulling off an upset. The reigning Super Bowl champions have returned to their form of last season, and it's possible their defense may actually be even more impressive at this point. The Seahawks have, after all, allowed opposing teams to score more than 6 points in only two games during that stretch, and they've allowed opposing teams to score more than 7 points only once. What makes those statistics even MORE impressive is the fact that 4 of those 7 games were played on the road, and 4 of the 7 games were also played against tough divisional opponents. There exists only one NFC team that has the potential to beat the Seahawks in Seattle, and that's the one team in the league with a flawless road record this season: the Dallas Cowboys.
The Cowboys faced one of the NFL's top defenses and won in a venue in which they'll never have to play again during this post-season...Dallas. Nearly any other team in the league would prefer to play at home, but the Cowboys have fared dramatically worse at home than on the road this season with a flawless road record but a perplexing .500 home winning percentage. It's rare that a team is stronger on the road, but there is one relatively recent example of another team with a similar pattern. The 2011 New York Giants just barely squeaked into the playoffs with a 9-7 record and proceeded to play and win 4 consecutive road post-season games. This pattern, however, is extremely rare, and it appears to be far more pronounced in this season's Cowboys team. The Giants, after all, won 5 road games in the regular season of 2011, but the Cowboys have won all 8 in 2014. It is for this reason that the Cowboys should consider themselves lucky that they're not the #1 seed.
The Seahawks ARE the NFC's number #1 seed in this post-season, and they're not playing the Cowboys this weekend. The Seahawks play their first game at home against a Panthers team that has built up some confidence in the last 5 weeks with 5 straight wins. The Panthers have experienced a resurgence from both an offensive and defensive standpoint, but they haven't faced any particularly challenging teams during their recent streak. The Seahawks are on a little bit of a streak of their own with 6 straight wins and 9 wins in their last 10 games. During their six game winning streak, however, the Seahawks faced at least somewhat limited competition as well. The last time the Panthers met the Seahawks, as a matter of fact, the Seahawks only narrowly won 13-9. This game may not be the blowout that many are predicting.
Possibly even more difficult to predict than the Panthers-Seahawks game is the Packers-Cowboys match-up on Sunday. I wouldn't ordinarily give any team much chance of beating the Packers in frighteningly cold January Wisconsin weather, but Aaron Rodgers has a torn calf muscle, and his limited mobility could prove pivotal against a team with a flawless road record. Forget your preconceived notions of which teams are the best this season. Careful examination of statistics and personnel brought Purple Nightmare a 4-0 predictions record last weekend, and Purple Nightmare's all-time playoff record now stands at 28-9. We shall continue to enter into the analysis and predictions process without as little prejudice as possible. The most relevant numbers and facts reveal the correct winner in the vast majority of cases--this is not the time to let assumptions and opinions get in the way of what should be an objective, analytical process. With that said, let's take a look at each of these NFC Divisional Round match-ups!
PANTHERS AT SEAHAWKS
These teams are far more similar than they are different despite a sizable disparity in regular season records. The Seahawks finished the regular season with 12 wins, and the Panthers finished with 7, but both teams saw a resurgence in defense in the second half of the season and finished on a winning streak. Neither team has faced incredible competition during their respective winning streaks, but the Seahawks were far more dominant and for a longer period of time.
I can't recall seeing any predictions for a Panthers win this weekend, but I've never been to fond of taking the word of the so-called "experts" considering it appears as though their predictions are little more than mildly educated guesses. I must admit that there are several glaring factors that tip the scales in favor of the Seahawks in my mind even before examining statistics. The numbers, however, could prove my ideas wrong, so let's take a look at the stats in this match-up.
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
As I look over the last 4 opponents the Panthers faced and beat at the end of the regular season, I notice that each of these opponents had an atrocious run defense. The Saints (29th), Buccaneers (19th), Browns (32nd), and the Falcons (21st) allowed the Panthers to rush for an average of 199.25 yards per game. Last week the even Cardinals with their relatively strong run defense (13th) allowed the Panthers to rush for 188 yards, but that rushing total isn't surprising considering just how little time the Cardinals possessed the football. The Panthers won't be facing a team that struggles in run defense on Sunday. The Seahawks ranked 3rd in the league against the run this season, and they'll be fresh off of a bye week's rest.
The second statistical trend I noticed about the Panthers' last 4 opponents of the regular season was that each one either had a lopsidedly one-dimensional offense or simply an incredibly unproductive offense all around. Both the Saints and Falcons had elite passing numbers on the season, but neither managed to establish a running game for any significant stretch of time. The Browns and Buccaneers both had rushing and passing numbers in the bottom third of the league. The Cardinals were the second to last rushing team in the league this season, but their ability to pass the football with success dropped catastrophically with 3rd string quarterback, Ryan Lindley, under center. What does this all mean? The Panthers played offensively flawed and defensively pathetic teams during their current 5 game winning streak.
The Seahawks' only playoff opponent during their current winning streak also happened to be the Arizona Cardinals. Like the Panthers, the Seahawks played the Cardinals once with Ryan Lindley as the starting quarterback, but unlike the Panthers, the Seahawks also played and dominated the Cardinals with Drew Stanton as QB. Also unlike the Panthers, the Seahawks held the Cardinals to an average of 4.5 points per game within their two regular season match-ups. The Panthers may have soundly defeated the Cardinals last weekend, but they still allowed Bruce Arians' crew to put up 16 points in the process.
The Seattle defense looks possibly better in many respects at this point in the season than it did in last year's historically dominant run. The Seahawks traveled to Philly in Week 14 and held the league's 9th ranked rushing offense and the 6th ranked passing offense to only 14 points. The Seahawks also held the 4th ranked rushing offense of the 49ers to an average of 5 points per game in both of their divisional match-ups. Most importantly, the Seahawks went to Arizona and put up a monstrous 596 offensive yards and beat the Cardinals 35-6. That's the same Cardinals team that the Panthers beat 27-16 at home last weekend.
The Panthers have been defensively stout as of late, but they have not faced a single team with an elite rush offense. The Seahawks are the best running football team in the league, and even their quarterback has nearly 900 yards on the ground. None of the teams that the Panthers have beaten down the stretch have been able to run the football or stop the run, and the Seahawks can do both as well or better than anyone else in the league. If the Eagles couldn't score more than a couple of touchdowns against the Seahawks in Philly, and the 49ers couldn't run the ball effectively against the Seahawks in San Francisco, I haven't the faintest idea of how the Panthers will be able to score enough points to win in Seattle.
The Panthers will once again face some serious defensive issues of their own on Saturday. The Panthers starting defensive tackle, Star Lotulelei, will not play against the Seahawks. Lotulelei's absence could mean big gains on the ground for Marshawn Lynch and less pressure for Russell Wilson. Cam Newton will almost certainly have trouble finding open receivers against this Seahawks secondary, and if the Panthers can't find success running the ball early, they may find themselves passing far more than they'd like to in the second half of the game with ball hawks lurking in the defensive backfield.
PREDICTION:
The Seahawks are a lot like the Panthers...the Seahawks are just a much better version. The Panthers have only beaten teams with major shortcomings on offense and defense, and many of their games during their winning streak were disappointingly close for Cam Newton and company. The Seahawks have recently flattened nearly everyone in their path regardless of whether or not they were at home or on the road. I found nothing statistical to support the idea of the Panthers winning this game, and this is easily the most conclusive prediction of the playoffs thus far. SEAHAWKS 31-9 (and 9 may actually be quite generous)
COWBOYS AT PACKERS
There are a great many people who believe Aaron Rodgers is the best player in football. It's difficult to claim ANYONE is the greatest player in football because of the dramatic differences between positions, but Aaron Rodgers has to be in the top 5 anyway. Aaron Rodgers does nearly everything that one would want a quarterback to do, and he does them all incredibly well. Part of what makes Rodgers amazing is his mobility. Rodgers, however, has a torn calf muscle (thanks a lot, Suh), and one has to wonder exactly how mobile he'll be in hellishly cold temperatures in Green bay on Sunday.
Rodgers isn't the only quarterback in this game who has had to deal with injury issues. Tony Romo has had to play a sizable chunk of the second half of the season with broken bones in his back. These injuries clearly haven't affected Romo to the degree that one would assume when they hear someone has a broken back, but I've wondered if it's possible that Tony is simply one hit away from paralysis.
The Cowboys are undefeated on the road, and the Packers are undefeated at home. It's up to us to figure out what the stats say about whether the Cowboys are better on the road than the Packers are at home, and whether or not Rodgers' limited mobility changes the equation. It could be that the Packers' offensive production after Rodgers injury is different enough of that prior to the injury that most of the regular season Packers passing statistics aren't totally relevant to this prediction. Let's take a look.
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
The Cowboys have easily the greatest road offense in the NFL. Their 34.375 points per game on the road is astounding considering some of their opponents including the Seahawks and Eagles. The Cowboys don't have what anyone would consider an elite defense, but they allow far fewer points per game on the road (22.625) than they score.
The Packers score significantly more points per game at home (39.75) than the Cowboys do on the road. The Packers also allow less points per game at home (20.375) than the Cowboys allow on the road. The Packers may not stand a chance of going into Seattle and beating the Seahawks, but they've limited some excellent offenses at Lambeau. Green Bay's defense held the Eagles' high-flying offense to 20 points, and it held the Patriots balanced offense to 21 points at home as well. On the other hand, the Packers did also allow the loser Falcons to put 37 points in Green Bay, and most of those points were scored furiously in the second half. Even the Jets came within a touchdown of the Packers in Green Bay.
The Cowboys have two impressive road performances over top teams this season, and the Packers have two impressive defensive performances at home against two potent offenses. It's truly unclear which holds more weight. I originally assumed the Cowboys had played some cold games on the road outdoors toward the end of the regular season, but the December 14th game against the Eagles in Philly only got down to around 40 degrees, and the December 28th game in Washington D.C. only got as low as 44 degrees. The temperature in Green Bay at the time of kickoff on Sunday will be around 21 degrees, but it will dip into the teens by the beginning of the second half. As good as the Cowboys have been on the road, it's difficult to imagine that they're even close to being acclimated to playing in that kind of climate. As the game wears on, the conditions will get worse and worse for the dome team.
Ok, so we've established that the Packers are stronger on both offense on average at home than the Cowboys are on the road, and we've discovered that the Cowboys haven't been tested by truly cold weather conditions yet. We know that Aaron Rodgers isn't 100% with a partial tear in his calf. Upon reviewing the Packers last game of the regular season wherein Rodgers' injury was worsened by Suh's not-so-graceful attempt at a moonwalk, I discovered that Aaron Rodgers was able to return to the field and be nearly as productive as he had been prior to the injury. What is most impressive is that Rodgers did so against one of the top secondaries in the league. Hell, the Lions BEAT the Packers earlier in the season when Rodgers was healthy, but they did so in Detroit. Aaron Rodgers has had a bye week to treat his injury, but it isn't fully healed yet. The biggest question that remains is which will have a greater impact on the game, Aaron Rodgers' lingering calf injury or the Cowboys' comparative lack of experience playing in extreme cold?
On the one hand, the Cowboys posses an incredible running game, and that bodes well for them on a day where catching a football could be difficult. The Cowboys also possess the 8th ranked run defense in the league, and that could force the Packers to keep the ball in hands of an injured Aaron Rodgers. The Cowboys do not possess a strong pass defense, and Aaron Rodgers could take advantage of that fact. UGH! So many factors and it's nearly impossible to determine which will most likely be the most decisive!
PREDICTION:
I wouldn't be even slightly surprised to be wrong with this prediction, but even starting a quarterback with bum leg, the Packers still engineered a more decisive victory over the Lions than the Cowboys did last week. I can't even begin to understand why the Cowboys would be better on the road than they are at home, but it appears as though the Packers are more offensively productive on average at home and more defensively stingy than the Cowboys are on the road. Factor in temperatures in the teens and the fact that the Packers have limited more potent offenses than the Cowboys at Lambeau, and I think we have arrived at a disappointing end to what had become an exciting storyline for the Cowboys franchise. I really hope I'm wrong about this, because the Cowboys are the only team left that could potentially beat the Seahawks in Seattle. PACKERS 33-28
The NFC may seem like the Seahawks' conference to lose, but I'd like to think that there are at least one or two remaining teams that could take them down. The Seahawks throttled the Packers in Week 1 of the regular season, but these two teams have changed so profoundly since that point that it may be difficult to use it as a predictor for a possible NFC championship match-up next week. This would all be SO very much more interesting if the Packers could have managed to snag the #1 seed. *sigh*
STAY TUNED FOR THE AFC DIVISIONAL ROUND PREDICTIONS!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
The Cowboys faced one of the NFL's top defenses and won in a venue in which they'll never have to play again during this post-season...Dallas. Nearly any other team in the league would prefer to play at home, but the Cowboys have fared dramatically worse at home than on the road this season with a flawless road record but a perplexing .500 home winning percentage. It's rare that a team is stronger on the road, but there is one relatively recent example of another team with a similar pattern. The 2011 New York Giants just barely squeaked into the playoffs with a 9-7 record and proceeded to play and win 4 consecutive road post-season games. This pattern, however, is extremely rare, and it appears to be far more pronounced in this season's Cowboys team. The Giants, after all, won 5 road games in the regular season of 2011, but the Cowboys have won all 8 in 2014. It is for this reason that the Cowboys should consider themselves lucky that they're not the #1 seed.
The Seahawks ARE the NFC's number #1 seed in this post-season, and they're not playing the Cowboys this weekend. The Seahawks play their first game at home against a Panthers team that has built up some confidence in the last 5 weeks with 5 straight wins. The Panthers have experienced a resurgence from both an offensive and defensive standpoint, but they haven't faced any particularly challenging teams during their recent streak. The Seahawks are on a little bit of a streak of their own with 6 straight wins and 9 wins in their last 10 games. During their six game winning streak, however, the Seahawks faced at least somewhat limited competition as well. The last time the Panthers met the Seahawks, as a matter of fact, the Seahawks only narrowly won 13-9. This game may not be the blowout that many are predicting.
Possibly even more difficult to predict than the Panthers-Seahawks game is the Packers-Cowboys match-up on Sunday. I wouldn't ordinarily give any team much chance of beating the Packers in frighteningly cold January Wisconsin weather, but Aaron Rodgers has a torn calf muscle, and his limited mobility could prove pivotal against a team with a flawless road record. Forget your preconceived notions of which teams are the best this season. Careful examination of statistics and personnel brought Purple Nightmare a 4-0 predictions record last weekend, and Purple Nightmare's all-time playoff record now stands at 28-9. We shall continue to enter into the analysis and predictions process without as little prejudice as possible. The most relevant numbers and facts reveal the correct winner in the vast majority of cases--this is not the time to let assumptions and opinions get in the way of what should be an objective, analytical process. With that said, let's take a look at each of these NFC Divisional Round match-ups!
PANTHERS AT SEAHAWKS
These teams are far more similar than they are different despite a sizable disparity in regular season records. The Seahawks finished the regular season with 12 wins, and the Panthers finished with 7, but both teams saw a resurgence in defense in the second half of the season and finished on a winning streak. Neither team has faced incredible competition during their respective winning streaks, but the Seahawks were far more dominant and for a longer period of time.
I can't recall seeing any predictions for a Panthers win this weekend, but I've never been to fond of taking the word of the so-called "experts" considering it appears as though their predictions are little more than mildly educated guesses. I must admit that there are several glaring factors that tip the scales in favor of the Seahawks in my mind even before examining statistics. The numbers, however, could prove my ideas wrong, so let's take a look at the stats in this match-up.
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
As I look over the last 4 opponents the Panthers faced and beat at the end of the regular season, I notice that each of these opponents had an atrocious run defense. The Saints (29th), Buccaneers (19th), Browns (32nd), and the Falcons (21st) allowed the Panthers to rush for an average of 199.25 yards per game. Last week the even Cardinals with their relatively strong run defense (13th) allowed the Panthers to rush for 188 yards, but that rushing total isn't surprising considering just how little time the Cardinals possessed the football. The Panthers won't be facing a team that struggles in run defense on Sunday. The Seahawks ranked 3rd in the league against the run this season, and they'll be fresh off of a bye week's rest.
The second statistical trend I noticed about the Panthers' last 4 opponents of the regular season was that each one either had a lopsidedly one-dimensional offense or simply an incredibly unproductive offense all around. Both the Saints and Falcons had elite passing numbers on the season, but neither managed to establish a running game for any significant stretch of time. The Browns and Buccaneers both had rushing and passing numbers in the bottom third of the league. The Cardinals were the second to last rushing team in the league this season, but their ability to pass the football with success dropped catastrophically with 3rd string quarterback, Ryan Lindley, under center. What does this all mean? The Panthers played offensively flawed and defensively pathetic teams during their current 5 game winning streak.
The Seahawks' only playoff opponent during their current winning streak also happened to be the Arizona Cardinals. Like the Panthers, the Seahawks played the Cardinals once with Ryan Lindley as the starting quarterback, but unlike the Panthers, the Seahawks also played and dominated the Cardinals with Drew Stanton as QB. Also unlike the Panthers, the Seahawks held the Cardinals to an average of 4.5 points per game within their two regular season match-ups. The Panthers may have soundly defeated the Cardinals last weekend, but they still allowed Bruce Arians' crew to put up 16 points in the process.
The Seattle defense looks possibly better in many respects at this point in the season than it did in last year's historically dominant run. The Seahawks traveled to Philly in Week 14 and held the league's 9th ranked rushing offense and the 6th ranked passing offense to only 14 points. The Seahawks also held the 4th ranked rushing offense of the 49ers to an average of 5 points per game in both of their divisional match-ups. Most importantly, the Seahawks went to Arizona and put up a monstrous 596 offensive yards and beat the Cardinals 35-6. That's the same Cardinals team that the Panthers beat 27-16 at home last weekend.
The Panthers have been defensively stout as of late, but they have not faced a single team with an elite rush offense. The Seahawks are the best running football team in the league, and even their quarterback has nearly 900 yards on the ground. None of the teams that the Panthers have beaten down the stretch have been able to run the football or stop the run, and the Seahawks can do both as well or better than anyone else in the league. If the Eagles couldn't score more than a couple of touchdowns against the Seahawks in Philly, and the 49ers couldn't run the ball effectively against the Seahawks in San Francisco, I haven't the faintest idea of how the Panthers will be able to score enough points to win in Seattle.
The Panthers will once again face some serious defensive issues of their own on Saturday. The Panthers starting defensive tackle, Star Lotulelei, will not play against the Seahawks. Lotulelei's absence could mean big gains on the ground for Marshawn Lynch and less pressure for Russell Wilson. Cam Newton will almost certainly have trouble finding open receivers against this Seahawks secondary, and if the Panthers can't find success running the ball early, they may find themselves passing far more than they'd like to in the second half of the game with ball hawks lurking in the defensive backfield.
PREDICTION:
The Seahawks are a lot like the Panthers...the Seahawks are just a much better version. The Panthers have only beaten teams with major shortcomings on offense and defense, and many of their games during their winning streak were disappointingly close for Cam Newton and company. The Seahawks have recently flattened nearly everyone in their path regardless of whether or not they were at home or on the road. I found nothing statistical to support the idea of the Panthers winning this game, and this is easily the most conclusive prediction of the playoffs thus far. SEAHAWKS 31-9 (and 9 may actually be quite generous)
COWBOYS AT PACKERS
There are a great many people who believe Aaron Rodgers is the best player in football. It's difficult to claim ANYONE is the greatest player in football because of the dramatic differences between positions, but Aaron Rodgers has to be in the top 5 anyway. Aaron Rodgers does nearly everything that one would want a quarterback to do, and he does them all incredibly well. Part of what makes Rodgers amazing is his mobility. Rodgers, however, has a torn calf muscle (thanks a lot, Suh), and one has to wonder exactly how mobile he'll be in hellishly cold temperatures in Green bay on Sunday.
Rodgers isn't the only quarterback in this game who has had to deal with injury issues. Tony Romo has had to play a sizable chunk of the second half of the season with broken bones in his back. These injuries clearly haven't affected Romo to the degree that one would assume when they hear someone has a broken back, but I've wondered if it's possible that Tony is simply one hit away from paralysis.
The Cowboys are undefeated on the road, and the Packers are undefeated at home. It's up to us to figure out what the stats say about whether the Cowboys are better on the road than the Packers are at home, and whether or not Rodgers' limited mobility changes the equation. It could be that the Packers' offensive production after Rodgers injury is different enough of that prior to the injury that most of the regular season Packers passing statistics aren't totally relevant to this prediction. Let's take a look.
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
The Cowboys have easily the greatest road offense in the NFL. Their 34.375 points per game on the road is astounding considering some of their opponents including the Seahawks and Eagles. The Cowboys don't have what anyone would consider an elite defense, but they allow far fewer points per game on the road (22.625) than they score.
The Packers score significantly more points per game at home (39.75) than the Cowboys do on the road. The Packers also allow less points per game at home (20.375) than the Cowboys allow on the road. The Packers may not stand a chance of going into Seattle and beating the Seahawks, but they've limited some excellent offenses at Lambeau. Green Bay's defense held the Eagles' high-flying offense to 20 points, and it held the Patriots balanced offense to 21 points at home as well. On the other hand, the Packers did also allow the loser Falcons to put 37 points in Green Bay, and most of those points were scored furiously in the second half. Even the Jets came within a touchdown of the Packers in Green Bay.
The Cowboys have two impressive road performances over top teams this season, and the Packers have two impressive defensive performances at home against two potent offenses. It's truly unclear which holds more weight. I originally assumed the Cowboys had played some cold games on the road outdoors toward the end of the regular season, but the December 14th game against the Eagles in Philly only got down to around 40 degrees, and the December 28th game in Washington D.C. only got as low as 44 degrees. The temperature in Green Bay at the time of kickoff on Sunday will be around 21 degrees, but it will dip into the teens by the beginning of the second half. As good as the Cowboys have been on the road, it's difficult to imagine that they're even close to being acclimated to playing in that kind of climate. As the game wears on, the conditions will get worse and worse for the dome team.
Ok, so we've established that the Packers are stronger on both offense on average at home than the Cowboys are on the road, and we've discovered that the Cowboys haven't been tested by truly cold weather conditions yet. We know that Aaron Rodgers isn't 100% with a partial tear in his calf. Upon reviewing the Packers last game of the regular season wherein Rodgers' injury was worsened by Suh's not-so-graceful attempt at a moonwalk, I discovered that Aaron Rodgers was able to return to the field and be nearly as productive as he had been prior to the injury. What is most impressive is that Rodgers did so against one of the top secondaries in the league. Hell, the Lions BEAT the Packers earlier in the season when Rodgers was healthy, but they did so in Detroit. Aaron Rodgers has had a bye week to treat his injury, but it isn't fully healed yet. The biggest question that remains is which will have a greater impact on the game, Aaron Rodgers' lingering calf injury or the Cowboys' comparative lack of experience playing in extreme cold?
On the one hand, the Cowboys posses an incredible running game, and that bodes well for them on a day where catching a football could be difficult. The Cowboys also possess the 8th ranked run defense in the league, and that could force the Packers to keep the ball in hands of an injured Aaron Rodgers. The Cowboys do not possess a strong pass defense, and Aaron Rodgers could take advantage of that fact. UGH! So many factors and it's nearly impossible to determine which will most likely be the most decisive!
PREDICTION:
I wouldn't be even slightly surprised to be wrong with this prediction, but even starting a quarterback with bum leg, the Packers still engineered a more decisive victory over the Lions than the Cowboys did last week. I can't even begin to understand why the Cowboys would be better on the road than they are at home, but it appears as though the Packers are more offensively productive on average at home and more defensively stingy than the Cowboys are on the road. Factor in temperatures in the teens and the fact that the Packers have limited more potent offenses than the Cowboys at Lambeau, and I think we have arrived at a disappointing end to what had become an exciting storyline for the Cowboys franchise. I really hope I'm wrong about this, because the Cowboys are the only team left that could potentially beat the Seahawks in Seattle. PACKERS 33-28
The NFC may seem like the Seahawks' conference to lose, but I'd like to think that there are at least one or two remaining teams that could take them down. The Seahawks throttled the Packers in Week 1 of the regular season, but these two teams have changed so profoundly since that point that it may be difficult to use it as a predictor for a possible NFC championship match-up next week. This would all be SO very much more interesting if the Packers could have managed to snag the #1 seed. *sigh*
STAY TUNED FOR THE AFC DIVISIONAL ROUND PREDICTIONS!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Saturday, January 3, 2015
AFC WILDCARD ROUND PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS!!!
The AFC currently features no playoff teams that have not displayed some kind of weakness as of late. Peyton Manning put up a horrendous performance against the Bengals, the Bengals lost two of their past four games, the Colts haven't looked the same since Ahmad Bradshaw was put on injured reserve earlier this season, the Ravens offense has stalled out at times in the last month, the Patriots put up uncharacteristically weak offensive numbers in recent road games, and the Steelers just lost a player that accounted for 39.6% of their total offensive yards since Week 11. Only two of those AFC playoff teams possess defenses that rank in the top ten in yards allowed per game (Ravens and Broncos), and only two rank in the top ten in points allowed per game (Ravens and Patriots). The perception of many is that 2-3 of these teams are MUCH better than the rest, but only 2 wins separates the #1 seed from the #6 seed.
This weekend's wildcard games feature match-ups that resulted in blowouts when each of these pairs of teams last met. The task at hand now is to determine whether enough has changed about these teams to expect different overall outcomes than the last time they each faced their upcoming opponent. It has, after all, been 9 weeks since the Ravens last faced the Steelers and 11 weeks since the Bengals last faced the Colts. It appears as though most sports analysts figure that these are the same teams playing in the same stadiums...soooo same outcome? Sure, why not? Well, that's certainly possible, but it wouldn't be prudent to make such an assumption before a thorough examination of all relevant facts and stats. Let's take a look!
BENGALS AT COLTS
Neither of these teams has given off Super Bowl champion vibes for most of the 2014 season. The Bengals have already lost to 3 of the other 5 AFC playoff teams--and so have the Colts. If the Colts win this week, they will inevitably face a team to whom they've already lost as they were defeated by both the Patriots and Broncos earlier this season. If the Bengals win on Sunday, they have a 50% chance of facing a team in the next round to whom they've already lost in the regular season as they beat the Broncos but lost to the Patriots. Even if the Bengals end up moving on to face the Broncos, however, they will do so in Denver after the Broncos have had a bye week.
Next week we can debate the odds of either the Bengals or Colts beating the Patriots or Broncos. This week, however, we must simply determine which of these two teams is most likely to move on. It's difficult to ignore Marvin Lewis' lack of playoff success as a head coach in the NFL, but I'll try to rely solely on statistics accumulated this season for analysis of this particular upcoming game. My best strategy for analysis of this particular game is to first assess any major differences in personnel since the last two times these teams met, and then attempt to determine what effects, if any, those personnel differences will have on this upcoming match-up.
STATISTICAL ANALYIS
I mentioned earlier that Ahmad Bradshaw was placed on injured reserve during the regular season, and his absence is undoubtedly the biggest offensive personnel difference for the Colts between Sunday's game and their last meeting with the Bengals 11 weeks ago. Bradshaw scored two of the Colts touchdowns and amassed nearly 90 all-purpose yards. Bradshaw led the league in receiving touchdowns by a running back before he became injured, and he had almost at least 1 touchdown per per game. Unfortunately for us, there isn't a great statistical way to demonstrate the impact of the loss of Bradshaw on the Colts ability to win games because the Colts won all but one game they played WITHOUT the dynamic weapon. That, however, has more to do with the comparative lack of quality opponents in the final 6 weeks of the 2014 regular season.
Before Ahmad Bradshaw went on injured reserve, the Colts lost to the Broncos, Eagles, Steelers and Patriots. The very worst of those teams won 10 games, and the rest won at least 11. After Bradshaw went down, the Colts played the Jaguars, Redskins, Browns, Texans, Cowboys, and Titans. The only one of THOSE opponents that the Colts lost to was the Cowboys, and they ended up winning 12 games and the NFC East division.
The Bengals appeared offensively inept in their last trip to Indianapolis, and it's a near certainty that A.J. Green's absence had much to do with that surprising level of ineptitude. Green has had injury issues all season, but when he's healthy, he's one of the best receivers in the game. With A.J. Green out, Andy Dalton was forced to rely on Jermaine Gresham and Mohamed Sanu. Sanu has flashed brilliantly at times this season, but Colts cornerback, Vontae Davis, has been brilliant in pass coverage this season and he held Sanu to 3 catches and 54 yards on the day. Gresham accounted for nearly 50 receiving yards himself, but he has only practiced one day this week and is listed as questionable with a back injury. A.J. Green has been listed as doubtful after suffering a concussion against the Steelers last Sunday night. In Green's absence, Vontae Davis will likely limit Mohamed Sanu once more.
Another defensive tool for the Colts will be Arthur Jones. Jones did not play in the regular season against the Bengals, but he's healthy and active for Sunday. Arthur Jones, a many Ravens fans remember, is a talented, athletic defensive end. Jones' familiarity with playing against the Bengals twice a year as a Baltimore Raven will undoubtedly help the Colts stop Andy Dalton and company. I've heard some analysts on ESPN remark that the emergence of Jeremy Hill should be a big difference-maker against the Colts, but the Colts limited Hill and Giovanni Bernard to a combined total of 32 rushing yards in their last meeting, and that was with a weakened defensive line. It's entirely possible that the Bengals have found better ways to utilize Hill, but it's not as though the Colts didn't see him earlier this season.
Indianapolis may no longer have Ahmad Bradshaw, but the Bengals struggled to stop Trent Richardson 11 weeks ago as well. Richardson rushed for 77 yards, and will likely have plenty of room to run if Andrew Luck gets into a passing rhythm early. There's little reason to think that Luck WON'T find his rhythm early as he'll be playing at home in a dome against the 20th ranked pass defense in the league. The Bengals can pat themselves on the back for beating the Broncos at home, but they faced a struggling Peyton Manning in driving rain, and it's no surprise that the old veteran threw several game-changing interceptions in such sloppy conditions. There will be no weather issues inside Lucas Oil Stadium, and there won't even be wind.
The absence of A.J. Green should be ultimately more decisive in this contest than the absence of Ahmad Bradshaw. In 3 games without Green this season, Andy Dalton has thrown two touchdown passes and 3 interceptions. Dalton threw 2 touchdown passes and no interceptions with Green in the whole game against the Steelers in Week 14, but he threw 2 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions last week in the game in which A.J. Green went down with a concussion. Green gives Dalton a big target to which he can simply throw the ball at and trust that his receiver will make a play. Losing a receiver of that caliber exposes serious accuracy issues Dalton possesses on deep passes. This could be a long day for Red Rocket.
PREDICTION:
The Colts certainly aren't unbeatable, but they're strong enough at home to outscore a Bengals team missing it's most critical receiving weapon. The Colts don't have the best defense in the league, but they do possess a shutdown corner in Vontae Davis. Davis should easily limit Mohamed Sanu, and the Bengals secondary will once again have trouble with the combination of T.Y. Hilton, Reggie Wayne, and Cody Fleener. If this game was in Cincinnati, this might be tougher to predict, but not enough has changed for the better about the Bengals to make me believe they'll be able to go on the road and shut down the league's most productive quarterback. I doubt the Colts will shut the Bengals out again, but Andrew Luck and his team will live to fight another day...and Marvin Lewis might actually lose his job to Hue Jackson. COLTS 24-17
RAVENS AT STEELERS
This is it, the moment we've waited for all week. This is the greatest rivalry in professional sports. The Seahawks-49ers rivalry has cooled off this season, the Yankees-Redsox rivalry meant little in 2014 as both teams went nowhere. The Packers-Bears rivalry was boring and one-sided this season, and the Jets-Patriots rivalry will likely take a step backwards as Rex departs. The Ravens-Steelers rivalry features two teams that both won two Super Bowl victories in the last decade and a half, and each team has won a Super Bowl within the last 6 years. Their games are seldom without controversy, devastating hits, and highlight reel clutch plays to leave one fan base mired in utter depression and another fan base beating its collective chest with pride. From 2008-2010, the Steelers typically had the edge over the Ravens, but from 2011-2013, the Ravens appeared to have the upper hand. Pittsburgh had the last laugh during the 2014 regular season, but these teams still split their games. Between their two regular season contests, the Ravens and Steelers scored and allowed exactly the same number of points. Each team won by a 20 point margin of victory at home, but the Steelers secured a home playoff game by winning the division.
Part of the Steelers' success this year has been their offense which ranked #2 in the NFL in the category of yards from scrimmage. That offense faltered in a handful of confusing moments against bottom-of-the-barrel teams, but it ultimately led them to 11 wins and a division title. The biggest reasons for a resurgence in Steelers offensive production were increased protection of Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown's league-leading receiving yardage total, and the rise of Le'Veon Bell as arguably the best all-purpose weapon in the NFL.
The Steelers are not the only AFC North team with a resurgence in offensive production. The Ravens set a franchise record for points scored in a single season in 2014, and finished the year 8th in the league in points scored per game (the Steelers finished 7th). The Ravens' resurgence in offensive production was due to Gary Kubiak's offensive system, a dramatic improvement in offensive line play, the 1000+ yard receiving production of Steve Smith Sr., and Justin Forsett's career best rushing performance of over 1200 yards with a league-leading 5.4 yards per carry.
Neither the Ravens nor the Steelers will have the full benefit of all of the aforementioned offensive factors for a pair of major reasons. The Steelers will not have Le'Veon Bell this week because of a brutal helmet-to-knee injury from last Sunday's Bengals game. The Ravens, on the other hand, will not have EITHER of the starting offensive tackles, and their right tackle, Rick Wagner, was ranked by Pro Football Focus as the #2 right tackle in the NFL this season. It's nearly impossible to say with certainty which of these factors will prove more critical for these teams, but a thorough look at the numbers should at least give us some semblance of clarity.
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
One factor that can't be evaluated from a statistical standpoint could ultimately play just as large a role in the outcome of tomorrow night's game as missing key personnel. There is a 100% chance of rain in Pittsburgh tomorrow night during the game, and that could make for a sloppy match-up. It could also mean victory for whichever team can run the ball, stop the run, rush the passer and win the turnover battle.
Le'Veon Bell accounted for just under 40% of the Steelers offensive yards in the last 7 weeks of the Steelers' season. Not only was he an elite rusher in the NFL with over 1300 rushing yards, but he was the Steelers' second leading receiver behind Antonio Brown with 854 receiving yards. Losing Bell means losing not only a fantastic receiving target and an elusive runner, but it also means losing an effective pass blocker, and an incredible weapon to set up play-action fakes. As good as Antonio Brown is, he can only catch what is thrown his way. The absence of Bell means the ferocious pack of Ravens pass rushers will be able to come after Roethlisberger with a vicious furor the likes of which has left Ben injured in past games. In other words, when the Steelers lose Le'Veon Bell, they lose the ability to throw the deep ball as effectively. When a team is relegated to short and intermediate passes against this Ravens defense, it finds far less success.
This won't be the first time the Ravens have faced a one-dimensional, pass-heavy offense this season. The Ravens faced the Falcons, Saints, and Chargers in the regular season, and they beat two out of those three. The one of those three teams that beat the Ravens was the Chargers, and they did so in large part by completing some timely deep passes. What made the Chargers different from the Falcons and Saints? The Chargers finished with the 4th ranked pass defense in the league this season, and that helped them limit Joe Flacco to 225 passing yards, as well as achieve a critical stop deep within their own red zone and force the Ravens to kick a field goal rather than punch in the go-ahead touchdown. The Steelers don't have the 4th ranked pass defense in the league. Pittsburgh, in fact, possess the 27th ranked pass defense in the NFL. Joe Flacco actually only threw for 37 less yards (303) than Ben Roethlisberger (340) in the Ravens' 43-23 loss to the Steelers in Week 9. Rain may make both passing attacks wildly unpredictable, but there is little reason to believe that the Steelers have a major advantage over the Ravens in the passing game without Le'Veon Bell's triple-threat presence.
One thing I keep hearing about on national television is the Ravens "vulnerable" pass defense. The Ravens pass defense certainly wasn't worth bragging about in 2014 overall, but few outside of Baltimore seem to have realized that the Ravens secondary has finally turned a corner. In the final month of the 2014 season, the Ravens pass defense held opponents to an average of 173 yards. This number sounds better than it actually is given the list of quarterbacks the Ravens faced during that month, but that group of quarterbacks wasn't totally devoid of talent. Ryan Tannehill was no slouch this season. The young quarterback threw for over 4000 yards and 27 touchdowns. The Ravens got off to a rough start in Miami in Week 14, but they ultimately held Tannehill to 165 passing yards, and totally totally halted a Dolphins offense that put up 36 points on the road against a top ten ranked Broncos defense only two weeks earlier. One major reason for improved secondary performance against Miami was that the Ravens finally found a combination of starting safeties that performed at a reasonable level in Will Hill and Jeromy Miles. The Ravens lost cornerback Asa Jackson towards the end of the Dolphins game, and that led to even more changes to the secondary.
The Ravens pulled a young cornerback named Rashaan Melvin up from the practice squad and signed former Panthers' starter Antoine Cason after Asa Jackson and Danny Gorrer were put on injured reserve. Those additions in combination with the return to form of Lardarius Webb have meant that the Ravens secondary was able to make the likes of Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins into relative non-factors. This is certainly no sort of dream team defensive backfield, but it is greatly improved over that which gave up 6 touchdowns and 340 yards to the Steelers in Week 9. Chykie Brown and Dominique Franks are long gone, and Rashaan Melvin actually looks quite talented. At 6'2" and 195 pounds with 4.42 forty yard dash speed, Rashaan Melvin has the physical tools to defend big-bodied NFL wideouts. With that said, Melvin and the rest of this group will have their hands full with the likes of Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, and Markus Wheaton. The Steelers have absolutely no shortage of wide receivers, and each one can make fantastic plays with his legs once the ball is in his hands.
The Steelers not only had a great deal of success in the passing game last time the Ravens came to town, but they also harassed Joe Flacco and sacked him 4 times. Baltimore's offensive line was fully healthy at the time, and they still struggled to protect Flacco from relatively uncomplicated blitzes off of simple stunts. The Steelers also held the Ravens rushing attack to 63 yards on the day, and a sizable point deficit limited Ravens running backs to 18 rushing attempts. Unfortunately for the Ravens, their offensive line will be without its two starting offensive tackles this week, but fortunately for the Ravens, the Steelers offense will not nearly possess the same firepower to put up points and ultimately run down the clock with a balanced attack late in the game. The Ravens starting left tackle this week, James Hurst, didn't allow a single sack or even a quarterback hurry to his side last week against a Browns team with one of the best pass defenses in the league. Marshal Yanda has some experience playing right tackle, and John Urshel is a capable back-up at right guard. This group is not exactly ideal, but it opened up enough holes for Justin Forsett to rumble for 129 yards last week, and that's the 10th time Forsett has rushed for 120+ yards this season.
PREDICTION:
Calculating the Steelers' record at home and the Ravens record on the road won't mean much for this game. There are too many factors that make stats accumulated by both of the teams over the course of the season totally irrelevant to this particular game. The Steelers offense isn't the same as it was for the entire regular season, the Ravens offensive line isn't the same as it was for nearly the entire regular season, and the Ravens secondary has changed dramatically since these teams last met. The team that wins this game will be the team that can run the ball, stop the run, and rush the passer, and win the turnover battle. The rain could very well keep both offenses grounded, and Todd Haley may resort back to his "dink and dunk" offense that he originally brought with him to Pittsburgh. Steelers fans may not know it yet, but the Ravens have the better of the two secondaries at this point in the season and a MUCH better pass rush, especially without the presence of Le'Veon Bell. If the Steelers can't keep the Ravens off of Big Ben without at least SOME threat of a rushing attack and decent pass protection from running backs, this could get really ugly really quickly. I doubt either team will have the offensive production on a rainy, muddy field that some people might be expecting from two of the league's top scoring offenses. The bottom line is that the Ravens still have the NFL's leading rusher as far as yards per carry are concerned...the Steelers likely won't be able to run the ball effectively. A team that can't run the ball will have a hard time in sloppy weather. In the absence of Bell, the Ravens are the more complete team here. Call me incredibly biased, but I can't see a team without its MVP for the first time this season winning in a playoff slobber-knocker. RAVENS 20-16
THERE'S NOTHING ELSE TO SAY
IT'S DO OR DIE
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!!
This weekend's wildcard games feature match-ups that resulted in blowouts when each of these pairs of teams last met. The task at hand now is to determine whether enough has changed about these teams to expect different overall outcomes than the last time they each faced their upcoming opponent. It has, after all, been 9 weeks since the Ravens last faced the Steelers and 11 weeks since the Bengals last faced the Colts. It appears as though most sports analysts figure that these are the same teams playing in the same stadiums...soooo same outcome? Sure, why not? Well, that's certainly possible, but it wouldn't be prudent to make such an assumption before a thorough examination of all relevant facts and stats. Let's take a look!
BENGALS AT COLTS
Neither of these teams has given off Super Bowl champion vibes for most of the 2014 season. The Bengals have already lost to 3 of the other 5 AFC playoff teams--and so have the Colts. If the Colts win this week, they will inevitably face a team to whom they've already lost as they were defeated by both the Patriots and Broncos earlier this season. If the Bengals win on Sunday, they have a 50% chance of facing a team in the next round to whom they've already lost in the regular season as they beat the Broncos but lost to the Patriots. Even if the Bengals end up moving on to face the Broncos, however, they will do so in Denver after the Broncos have had a bye week.
Next week we can debate the odds of either the Bengals or Colts beating the Patriots or Broncos. This week, however, we must simply determine which of these two teams is most likely to move on. It's difficult to ignore Marvin Lewis' lack of playoff success as a head coach in the NFL, but I'll try to rely solely on statistics accumulated this season for analysis of this particular upcoming game. My best strategy for analysis of this particular game is to first assess any major differences in personnel since the last two times these teams met, and then attempt to determine what effects, if any, those personnel differences will have on this upcoming match-up.
STATISTICAL ANALYIS
I mentioned earlier that Ahmad Bradshaw was placed on injured reserve during the regular season, and his absence is undoubtedly the biggest offensive personnel difference for the Colts between Sunday's game and their last meeting with the Bengals 11 weeks ago. Bradshaw scored two of the Colts touchdowns and amassed nearly 90 all-purpose yards. Bradshaw led the league in receiving touchdowns by a running back before he became injured, and he had almost at least 1 touchdown per per game. Unfortunately for us, there isn't a great statistical way to demonstrate the impact of the loss of Bradshaw on the Colts ability to win games because the Colts won all but one game they played WITHOUT the dynamic weapon. That, however, has more to do with the comparative lack of quality opponents in the final 6 weeks of the 2014 regular season.
Before Ahmad Bradshaw went on injured reserve, the Colts lost to the Broncos, Eagles, Steelers and Patriots. The very worst of those teams won 10 games, and the rest won at least 11. After Bradshaw went down, the Colts played the Jaguars, Redskins, Browns, Texans, Cowboys, and Titans. The only one of THOSE opponents that the Colts lost to was the Cowboys, and they ended up winning 12 games and the NFC East division.
The Bengals appeared offensively inept in their last trip to Indianapolis, and it's a near certainty that A.J. Green's absence had much to do with that surprising level of ineptitude. Green has had injury issues all season, but when he's healthy, he's one of the best receivers in the game. With A.J. Green out, Andy Dalton was forced to rely on Jermaine Gresham and Mohamed Sanu. Sanu has flashed brilliantly at times this season, but Colts cornerback, Vontae Davis, has been brilliant in pass coverage this season and he held Sanu to 3 catches and 54 yards on the day. Gresham accounted for nearly 50 receiving yards himself, but he has only practiced one day this week and is listed as questionable with a back injury. A.J. Green has been listed as doubtful after suffering a concussion against the Steelers last Sunday night. In Green's absence, Vontae Davis will likely limit Mohamed Sanu once more.
Another defensive tool for the Colts will be Arthur Jones. Jones did not play in the regular season against the Bengals, but he's healthy and active for Sunday. Arthur Jones, a many Ravens fans remember, is a talented, athletic defensive end. Jones' familiarity with playing against the Bengals twice a year as a Baltimore Raven will undoubtedly help the Colts stop Andy Dalton and company. I've heard some analysts on ESPN remark that the emergence of Jeremy Hill should be a big difference-maker against the Colts, but the Colts limited Hill and Giovanni Bernard to a combined total of 32 rushing yards in their last meeting, and that was with a weakened defensive line. It's entirely possible that the Bengals have found better ways to utilize Hill, but it's not as though the Colts didn't see him earlier this season.
Indianapolis may no longer have Ahmad Bradshaw, but the Bengals struggled to stop Trent Richardson 11 weeks ago as well. Richardson rushed for 77 yards, and will likely have plenty of room to run if Andrew Luck gets into a passing rhythm early. There's little reason to think that Luck WON'T find his rhythm early as he'll be playing at home in a dome against the 20th ranked pass defense in the league. The Bengals can pat themselves on the back for beating the Broncos at home, but they faced a struggling Peyton Manning in driving rain, and it's no surprise that the old veteran threw several game-changing interceptions in such sloppy conditions. There will be no weather issues inside Lucas Oil Stadium, and there won't even be wind.
The absence of A.J. Green should be ultimately more decisive in this contest than the absence of Ahmad Bradshaw. In 3 games without Green this season, Andy Dalton has thrown two touchdown passes and 3 interceptions. Dalton threw 2 touchdown passes and no interceptions with Green in the whole game against the Steelers in Week 14, but he threw 2 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions last week in the game in which A.J. Green went down with a concussion. Green gives Dalton a big target to which he can simply throw the ball at and trust that his receiver will make a play. Losing a receiver of that caliber exposes serious accuracy issues Dalton possesses on deep passes. This could be a long day for Red Rocket.
PREDICTION:
The Colts certainly aren't unbeatable, but they're strong enough at home to outscore a Bengals team missing it's most critical receiving weapon. The Colts don't have the best defense in the league, but they do possess a shutdown corner in Vontae Davis. Davis should easily limit Mohamed Sanu, and the Bengals secondary will once again have trouble with the combination of T.Y. Hilton, Reggie Wayne, and Cody Fleener. If this game was in Cincinnati, this might be tougher to predict, but not enough has changed for the better about the Bengals to make me believe they'll be able to go on the road and shut down the league's most productive quarterback. I doubt the Colts will shut the Bengals out again, but Andrew Luck and his team will live to fight another day...and Marvin Lewis might actually lose his job to Hue Jackson. COLTS 24-17
RAVENS AT STEELERS
This is it, the moment we've waited for all week. This is the greatest rivalry in professional sports. The Seahawks-49ers rivalry has cooled off this season, the Yankees-Redsox rivalry meant little in 2014 as both teams went nowhere. The Packers-Bears rivalry was boring and one-sided this season, and the Jets-Patriots rivalry will likely take a step backwards as Rex departs. The Ravens-Steelers rivalry features two teams that both won two Super Bowl victories in the last decade and a half, and each team has won a Super Bowl within the last 6 years. Their games are seldom without controversy, devastating hits, and highlight reel clutch plays to leave one fan base mired in utter depression and another fan base beating its collective chest with pride. From 2008-2010, the Steelers typically had the edge over the Ravens, but from 2011-2013, the Ravens appeared to have the upper hand. Pittsburgh had the last laugh during the 2014 regular season, but these teams still split their games. Between their two regular season contests, the Ravens and Steelers scored and allowed exactly the same number of points. Each team won by a 20 point margin of victory at home, but the Steelers secured a home playoff game by winning the division.
Part of the Steelers' success this year has been their offense which ranked #2 in the NFL in the category of yards from scrimmage. That offense faltered in a handful of confusing moments against bottom-of-the-barrel teams, but it ultimately led them to 11 wins and a division title. The biggest reasons for a resurgence in Steelers offensive production were increased protection of Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown's league-leading receiving yardage total, and the rise of Le'Veon Bell as arguably the best all-purpose weapon in the NFL.
The Steelers are not the only AFC North team with a resurgence in offensive production. The Ravens set a franchise record for points scored in a single season in 2014, and finished the year 8th in the league in points scored per game (the Steelers finished 7th). The Ravens' resurgence in offensive production was due to Gary Kubiak's offensive system, a dramatic improvement in offensive line play, the 1000+ yard receiving production of Steve Smith Sr., and Justin Forsett's career best rushing performance of over 1200 yards with a league-leading 5.4 yards per carry.
Neither the Ravens nor the Steelers will have the full benefit of all of the aforementioned offensive factors for a pair of major reasons. The Steelers will not have Le'Veon Bell this week because of a brutal helmet-to-knee injury from last Sunday's Bengals game. The Ravens, on the other hand, will not have EITHER of the starting offensive tackles, and their right tackle, Rick Wagner, was ranked by Pro Football Focus as the #2 right tackle in the NFL this season. It's nearly impossible to say with certainty which of these factors will prove more critical for these teams, but a thorough look at the numbers should at least give us some semblance of clarity.
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
One factor that can't be evaluated from a statistical standpoint could ultimately play just as large a role in the outcome of tomorrow night's game as missing key personnel. There is a 100% chance of rain in Pittsburgh tomorrow night during the game, and that could make for a sloppy match-up. It could also mean victory for whichever team can run the ball, stop the run, rush the passer and win the turnover battle.
Le'Veon Bell accounted for just under 40% of the Steelers offensive yards in the last 7 weeks of the Steelers' season. Not only was he an elite rusher in the NFL with over 1300 rushing yards, but he was the Steelers' second leading receiver behind Antonio Brown with 854 receiving yards. Losing Bell means losing not only a fantastic receiving target and an elusive runner, but it also means losing an effective pass blocker, and an incredible weapon to set up play-action fakes. As good as Antonio Brown is, he can only catch what is thrown his way. The absence of Bell means the ferocious pack of Ravens pass rushers will be able to come after Roethlisberger with a vicious furor the likes of which has left Ben injured in past games. In other words, when the Steelers lose Le'Veon Bell, they lose the ability to throw the deep ball as effectively. When a team is relegated to short and intermediate passes against this Ravens defense, it finds far less success.
This won't be the first time the Ravens have faced a one-dimensional, pass-heavy offense this season. The Ravens faced the Falcons, Saints, and Chargers in the regular season, and they beat two out of those three. The one of those three teams that beat the Ravens was the Chargers, and they did so in large part by completing some timely deep passes. What made the Chargers different from the Falcons and Saints? The Chargers finished with the 4th ranked pass defense in the league this season, and that helped them limit Joe Flacco to 225 passing yards, as well as achieve a critical stop deep within their own red zone and force the Ravens to kick a field goal rather than punch in the go-ahead touchdown. The Steelers don't have the 4th ranked pass defense in the league. Pittsburgh, in fact, possess the 27th ranked pass defense in the NFL. Joe Flacco actually only threw for 37 less yards (303) than Ben Roethlisberger (340) in the Ravens' 43-23 loss to the Steelers in Week 9. Rain may make both passing attacks wildly unpredictable, but there is little reason to believe that the Steelers have a major advantage over the Ravens in the passing game without Le'Veon Bell's triple-threat presence.
One thing I keep hearing about on national television is the Ravens "vulnerable" pass defense. The Ravens pass defense certainly wasn't worth bragging about in 2014 overall, but few outside of Baltimore seem to have realized that the Ravens secondary has finally turned a corner. In the final month of the 2014 season, the Ravens pass defense held opponents to an average of 173 yards. This number sounds better than it actually is given the list of quarterbacks the Ravens faced during that month, but that group of quarterbacks wasn't totally devoid of talent. Ryan Tannehill was no slouch this season. The young quarterback threw for over 4000 yards and 27 touchdowns. The Ravens got off to a rough start in Miami in Week 14, but they ultimately held Tannehill to 165 passing yards, and totally totally halted a Dolphins offense that put up 36 points on the road against a top ten ranked Broncos defense only two weeks earlier. One major reason for improved secondary performance against Miami was that the Ravens finally found a combination of starting safeties that performed at a reasonable level in Will Hill and Jeromy Miles. The Ravens lost cornerback Asa Jackson towards the end of the Dolphins game, and that led to even more changes to the secondary.
The Ravens pulled a young cornerback named Rashaan Melvin up from the practice squad and signed former Panthers' starter Antoine Cason after Asa Jackson and Danny Gorrer were put on injured reserve. Those additions in combination with the return to form of Lardarius Webb have meant that the Ravens secondary was able to make the likes of Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins into relative non-factors. This is certainly no sort of dream team defensive backfield, but it is greatly improved over that which gave up 6 touchdowns and 340 yards to the Steelers in Week 9. Chykie Brown and Dominique Franks are long gone, and Rashaan Melvin actually looks quite talented. At 6'2" and 195 pounds with 4.42 forty yard dash speed, Rashaan Melvin has the physical tools to defend big-bodied NFL wideouts. With that said, Melvin and the rest of this group will have their hands full with the likes of Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, and Markus Wheaton. The Steelers have absolutely no shortage of wide receivers, and each one can make fantastic plays with his legs once the ball is in his hands.
The Steelers not only had a great deal of success in the passing game last time the Ravens came to town, but they also harassed Joe Flacco and sacked him 4 times. Baltimore's offensive line was fully healthy at the time, and they still struggled to protect Flacco from relatively uncomplicated blitzes off of simple stunts. The Steelers also held the Ravens rushing attack to 63 yards on the day, and a sizable point deficit limited Ravens running backs to 18 rushing attempts. Unfortunately for the Ravens, their offensive line will be without its two starting offensive tackles this week, but fortunately for the Ravens, the Steelers offense will not nearly possess the same firepower to put up points and ultimately run down the clock with a balanced attack late in the game. The Ravens starting left tackle this week, James Hurst, didn't allow a single sack or even a quarterback hurry to his side last week against a Browns team with one of the best pass defenses in the league. Marshal Yanda has some experience playing right tackle, and John Urshel is a capable back-up at right guard. This group is not exactly ideal, but it opened up enough holes for Justin Forsett to rumble for 129 yards last week, and that's the 10th time Forsett has rushed for 120+ yards this season.
PREDICTION:
Calculating the Steelers' record at home and the Ravens record on the road won't mean much for this game. There are too many factors that make stats accumulated by both of the teams over the course of the season totally irrelevant to this particular game. The Steelers offense isn't the same as it was for the entire regular season, the Ravens offensive line isn't the same as it was for nearly the entire regular season, and the Ravens secondary has changed dramatically since these teams last met. The team that wins this game will be the team that can run the ball, stop the run, and rush the passer, and win the turnover battle. The rain could very well keep both offenses grounded, and Todd Haley may resort back to his "dink and dunk" offense that he originally brought with him to Pittsburgh. Steelers fans may not know it yet, but the Ravens have the better of the two secondaries at this point in the season and a MUCH better pass rush, especially without the presence of Le'Veon Bell. If the Steelers can't keep the Ravens off of Big Ben without at least SOME threat of a rushing attack and decent pass protection from running backs, this could get really ugly really quickly. I doubt either team will have the offensive production on a rainy, muddy field that some people might be expecting from two of the league's top scoring offenses. The bottom line is that the Ravens still have the NFL's leading rusher as far as yards per carry are concerned...the Steelers likely won't be able to run the ball effectively. A team that can't run the ball will have a hard time in sloppy weather. In the absence of Bell, the Ravens are the more complete team here. Call me incredibly biased, but I can't see a team without its MVP for the first time this season winning in a playoff slobber-knocker. RAVENS 20-16
THERE'S NOTHING ELSE TO SAY
IT'S DO OR DIE
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!!
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