Wednesday, September 26, 2012

ADDRESSING THE REFEREE NIGHTMARE AND WEEK 4 PREDICTIONS

    It seems as though every football player, coach, and enthusiast agrees that the temporary replacement officials in the NFL have made more horrible calls than one could count in only the first few weeks of the 2012 regular season.  Some seem to want to see the heads of these refs atop a series of pikes outside the entrance of each stadium, and some simply recognize that these refs simply aren't experienced enough to handle what has proven to be a much tougher job than many originally assumed.  Regardless of the reason, most commentators agree that getting the real NFL referees back could not happen soon enough as the calls and non-calls made by the replacements are drastically changing the game.  Let's take a look at how.
    Remember the elite, pass-heavy offenses of the 2011 season and the elite quarterbacks that led them?  The Saints, the Patriots, the Packers,  and even the Giants and Lions put up an unprecedented amount of passing yards and passing touchdowns as the result of recent changes in the rules of the game that protect receivers and quarterbacks.  Here we are less than a year later, and most of those elite passing teams currently have losing records--especially the ones led by the top 3 elite quarterbacks.  The Saints have extenuating circumstances as a result of the loss of their head coach, but the Patriots are 1-2 as are the Lions and Packers (even though they really won that game they still looked offensively anemic compared to last year).  I blame this in large part on the replacement referees.  In some games, the referees have thrown far too many flags, but somehow they manage to miss huge, game-changing calls by virtue of the fact that they appear to be poorly versed in the technicalities and wording of the NFL rulebook. I'm sure there have been many more missed calls and bad calls than I've seen, but there have been a few that I've seen thus far that illustrate the ill-prepared current state of the replacement officials:

1. RAVENS AT EAGLES- Some readers may roll their eyes at me mentioning this particular call first, but I think it's an important example of an instance of a referee simply not knowing the technical points of a particular rule.  Jacoby Jones was in tight physical coverage by an Eagles cornerback toward the back right corner of the endzone.  Flacco lofted a pass to Jones at which point Jones jumped up to catch the ball.  The cornerback had been draped all over Jones and appeared clearly to have interfered with the pass, but Jones was able to push off of the corner to free himself to make the catch.  Jacoby was called for offensive pass interference soon thereafter.  Now Jones did push off of the cornerback a bit, but only after he was being interfered with seconds earlier.  The point that made this penalty call unusual was that the cornerback never turned to the ball to make himself an eligable receiver thus making an offensive pass interference call impossible...if you're going by the rules.  Well that didn't stop THIS particular referee, and the Ravens ended up losing by a single point.
   
2. BENGALS AT REDSKINS- Despite the loss to Cincy, Robert Griffin III still looked good.  For a rookie QB playing on a team that hasn't been a contender for many years, he's doing quite well.  RG3 threw mostly short and intermediate routes all day, but the questionable play happened on the one deep pass he threw to a receiver running straight of the middle of the field with two defensive backs running with him stride for stride.  One of the Bengals defensive backs interfered with and knocked down the Redskins receiver before the ball got to him, and a flag clearly should have been thrown.  It's not that the referee didn't necessarily understand the rules, but he was officiating from much too close to this play to totally miss the call.  In a game where one touchdown would have tied the score, the referee's blatant missed call ultimately put this one out of reach for the Skins.

3. PACKERS AT SEAHAWKS- At this point, I'm sure everyone has heard of this play ad nauseum--and for good reason: this was clearly the most tragically botched call of the season thus far (a fact that the NFL officially confirmed).  On the final play of the game, rookie quarterback Russell Wilson heaved a hail mary pass into the endzone that was caught and hauled in by Green Bay safety M.D. Jennings.  Seattle receiver Golden Tate then proceeded to put his hands on the ball that Jennings already intercepted and brought in to his chest.  Both men collapsed to the ground upon which Tate attempted to wrestle for possession of the ball with Jennings.  By the time the officials made their way over to the scene of the catch/pick, both men appeared to have a firm grip on the ball which prompted one official to signal a touchdown while the other official signaled no catch only a few feet away from his colleague.  Now, I'm probably the billionth person to point out that for this to have been an actual touchdown, Tate would have had to have got his hands on the ball at the same time as Jennings.  In that scenario, the tie would have gone to the offensive player.  In this care, however, the replay showed Jennings to have full possession and control of the ball before Tate could even make contact with it.  This, of course, resulted in a Seahawks touchdown and and Packers loss.

    Had those been the only three major bad calls or non-calls in the first 3 weeks of the season then I doubt many people outside of fans of those teams would be complaining.  The problem remains that these are simply just SOME examples of some the more egregious errors on the part of the replacement officials, but I could also mention the non-call on a helmet-led hit that put Darius Heyward-Bey in the hospital and or one that left Matt Schaub missing a chunk of his ear.  The bottom line is that these officials are easily as bad with the calls that they DO make as they are with the ones that they miss entirely.  Not only is player safety at great risk, but also is the integrity of the game.  The recently enacted rules to protect receivers and quarterbacks have essentially been thrown out by an underqualified, inexperienced group of psuedo-officials, and this has been to the detriment of typically dominant teams that rely on their passing ability to win games.  I am not a Packers fan, I am indifferent to the Saints, and I loathe the Patriots, but these games need to be fair and the team that plays the best game needs to come out victorious.

WEEK 4 PICKS

     Making accurate predictions may prove an impossible task due to the choatic nature of replacement officiating, but I'm going to give it my best shot anyway!

BROWNS AT RAVENS- This is probably the easiest game to pick of all.  The Browns are 0-3 and have never managed to beat the Ravens during John Harbaugh's tenure in Baltimore.  Brandon Weeden has averaged 2 interceptions and only 1 touchdown per game, and Trent Richardson averaged less than 60 rushing yards per game as well.  The Browns have, however, lost two of their three games by a combined 8 points, and the Ravens should be careful not to take them lightly.  In the end, the Browns will have to go on the road on a short week in one of the toughest places in the NFL for road teams to win.  PREDICTION: 35-17 RAVENS.

PANTHERS AT FALCONS- Falcons...yeah there's not a lot of explanation required on this one.  The Falcons almost never lose at home, let alone to the Panthers.  PREDICTION:  31-10 FALCONS.

PATRIOTS AT BILLS- This one may seem trickier because the Patriots are now 1-2, but they still looked explosive and efficient at times against the Ravens.  I have faith that the Patriots will handle their divisional foe in the end, but it'll be a bump road as poor officiating has led to problems for teams that rely heavily on the pass.  PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 24-17.

VIKINGS AT LIONS- The Vikings silenced a lot of people (including myself) that believed the 49ers to be one of the top two teams in the league early on.  The Lions are ordinarily a dangerous team but lost a tough game to the 49ers and a crazy overtime offensive struggle to the Titans.  This game will probably hinge upon the health of Matt Stafford, but I believe he'll play and the Lions will win this one at home. PREDICTION LIONS 27-20.

CHARGERS AT CHIEFS- Neither of these teams has proven as good as I assumed they'd be given their late season performances last year, but I think the Chargers still have enough offensive firepower to take it to the Chiefs on the road.  Alas, it won't be enough for the Chargers this week as they won't be able to stop Jamaal Charles and that will limit Phillip Rivers' opportunities to score.  PREDICTION: CHIEFS 24-21.

SEAHAWKS AT RAMS- Russell Wilson was given an absolute gift on Monday night and his luck will run out when his team goes on the road to face an improved Rams team that will be looking to come back strong after being thumped by the Bears.  The Seahawks simply won't play nearly as well without homefield advantage and will lose in a close game.  PREDICTION: RAMS 23-17.

49ERS AT JETS- The 49ers' run defense matches up too well with a Jets team that has struggled to find a rhythm passing against good teams.  Combine that with the loss of Darelle Revis and this game could be a total blowout.  PREDICTION: 49ERS 34-13.

TITANS AT TEXANS- Divisional matchups are often tough to predict, but I have a hard time seeing the Texans losing at home right now. PREDICTION: TEXANS 31-21.

BENGALS AT JAGUARS- The Bengals have looked good after being embarrassed by the Ravens in week 1.  Expect more offensive acrobatics from A.J. Green and company en route to a solid win on the road. PREDICTION BENGALS 24-10.

DOLPHINS AT CARDINALS- The Cardinals have simply looked too strong to lose to a team like the Dolphins right now. PREDICTION: CARDINALS 28-9.

RAIDERS AT BRONCOS- This is a game where Peyton Manning finally gets back on track and limits his early game mistakes. The Raiders are about to join the Mile High Club if you get catch my drift.  PREDICTION: BRONCOS 21-10.

SAINTS AT PACKERS- Sorry Saints, you haven't won yet, and you won't win in Lambeau.  The Packers are still a good team and the Saints are not, especially on the road in harsh environments such as Green Bay.  The Saints will still put up points, but their defense relies too heavily on home crowd noise to be successful in enemy territory...and without Sean Payton.  Expect a shootout here. PREDICTION: PACKERS 42-35.

REDSKINS AT BUCCANEERS- These are two 1-2 teams that have had close losses and a narrow win.  I also really like how RG3 has played thus far.  My gut tells me to go with the home team here, but after watching the Skins narrowly lose to the Bengals, I think they're due.  PREDICTION: REDSKINS 23-13.

GIANTS AT EAGLES- The Eagles will be looking to bounce back from being humiliated by the Cardinals, but the Giants will prove a formidable foe.  The Eagles emerged from their game against the Ravens too banged up to handle the Cardinals, and playing the Giants won't be much easier. PREDICTION: GIANTS 31-17.

BEARS AT COWBOYS- This is one of the toughest games to predict this week as both of these teams have shown flashes of both dominance and ineptitude in the first three weeks.  Both Romo and Cutler have been extremely inconsistent recently.  In the end, I believe the Bears pass rush will be too much for the mediocre Dallas offensive line to handle.  PREDICTION: BEARS 21-17.

Stay tuned for post-game analysis of the matchup between the Ravens and Browns.  As always GO RAVENS!!!

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

BACK TO FOOTBALL: 3 WEEK ANALYSIS

     Greetings Ravens fans!  I must first apologize for the delay in publishing my first post until after the 3rd week of the NFL regular season.  I considered writing a post after the Ravens embarrassed the Bengals, but then I held back knowing full well that a Ravens home opener would not necessarily prove an accurate representation of how the Ravens would perform in week 2 and beyond.  I'm glad I held off as we all saw a starkly differnt performance in Philly less than a week later.  I then considered writing another post, but I wanted to reserve judgement and refrain from doing too much statistical analysis when I only had stats from two games to analyze.  After week 3, however, I decided that I'd seen enough to form an early opinion about the strengths and weaknesses of this team when up against some rather fierce competition.  Let's go over what we observed.

LOTS OF FAMILIAR PIECES--BUT A BRAND NEW OFFENSE!

     It seems bizarre how much the Ravens offense improved with minimal changes in their weapons.  They swapped out Lee Evans for Jacoby Jones, but other than that, the list of playmakers remains unaltered.  Many assumed the offensive line would take a step back after losing Ben Grubbs and as a result of Matt Birks advanced age and Bryant McKinney's weight and conditioning issues.  Lo and Behold, the Ravens have found that the addition of a solid, speedy 3rd wide receiver opens everything up for the offense as well as helps to take full advantage of Joe Flacco's cannon of an arm.  As for the O line, the Ravens have once again taken a gamble on youth and talent by starting Kelechi Osemele and Ramon Harewood--with surprising success.
     Let's take a trip back to last season's AFC Championship for just a moment.  One thing that held the Ravens back from moving the ball early in the game was the offensive line's inability to keep a dialed up Patriot pass rush off of Flacco.  Hell, Vince Wilfork pretty much just bull-rushed his way through the Ravens O line by himself on numerous instances.  Fast forward to September 23, 2012 and let's see how many times the Patriots sacked Flacco (I'll give you a hint: it rhymes with hero).  Yes that's right, the Pats failed to sack Flacco even once.  This had also to do with Patriots' insistance on frequently dropping their linebackers into coverage and seldom using defensive backs to bring pressure off the edge.  Regardless of the reason, the Ravens were able to keep Wilfork and company off of Flacco to give him lots of time to throw--and we all know what happens when Joe Flacco has lots of time to throw.
     Flacco threw for 382 yards and 3 touchdowns with 1 interception against a newly revamped defense that allowed very few passing and rushing yards during the first two weeks of the season.  One might say that it was a fluke or that the New England defense still isn't that improved over last season, but Joe also put up about 300 yards on the Bengals defense and should have had 2 TD passes against the Eagles (I don't wanna whine about the refs, but we all saw that play). 
     There are a couple of notable factor to which we can attribute Joe's recent success.  The first, as I'm sure you've observed, is the no huddle and "sugar huddle" offense that Cam Cameron implemented to keep defenses on their toes and give them less time to adjust and react to the Ravens' pre-snap formations.  This style of offense also finally gives Joe the authority to make audible play changes in reaction to what he sees from opposing defenses rather than just having to take a timeout when he sees something that he doesn't like.  The other factor has undoubtedly been Jim Caldwell.  It's tough to say whether or not to even give Cam Cameron credit for the new up-tempo offense as it never truly appeared until Caldwell was hired.  Jim Caldwell, for those of you who have been busy living under your respective rocks, was the former head coach of the Colts and the long time quarterback coach of the great Peyton Manning.  Is it a coincedence that the same year the Ravens hire Peyton Manning's old QB coach the Ravens just happen to switch to an up-tempo offense that allows Joe to take control?  You better believe it's not.
     The speed and success of the pass offense has also opened up the running game.  Ray Rice is still Ray Rice, but now he's finding himself running into a pile of bodies a lot less often.  We've seen far more instances of Ray getting into open space and taking off for good chunks of yardage.  Many people feared that Ray Rice would see fewer touches as a result of the revamped passing game, but thus far, Ray has actually averaged 89.33 yards per game on the ground and 42.33 yards per game through the air with 3 total touchdowns.  Through the first 3 weeks of the 2011 season, in comparison, Rice averaged 77 rushing yards per game and 59.33 yards per game receiving with 3 total touchdowns.  This shows us that the Ravens receiving corps now gets more frequent separation so that Flacco no longer resorts to as many dump-off passes to Rice when no one else is open.  These stats also show us that defenses are no longer able to simply key in on Rice to slow down the Ravens offense altogether.  Defenses find themselves, instead, struggling to cover Dennis Pitta, Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin, and Jacoby Jones while Ray takes the handoff and zigzags his way through traffic--often for 10+ yards!  The bottom line: the Ravens are ranked 3rd in the NFL in passing yards averaging 301.3 per game and 11th in rushing yards averaging 118 per game.  The offense is doing just fine--the defense on the other hand...

THE RAVENS DEFENSE: WHAT HAPPENED???

     It's no secret that the Ravens lost some significant pieces to their defense.  Terrell Suggs is the most obvious loss, though he will be back.  Had the Ravens defense simply just lost Suggs to injury, however, they'd still be a dominant unit.  When you couple the loss of Suggs with Jarret Johnson's departure, you get a unit that struggles to stuff the run AND get to the quarterback.  Did Suggs have sacks in every game?  No, but he commanded enough brute strength and speed to warrant the use of double and sometimes triple teams to block him, and that opened up space for Pernell McPhee, Paul Kruger and company to pressure and sack opposing quarterbacks.
      Another big loss was Chuck Pagano.  I'm well aware that the Ravens have gone through a host of defensive coordinators in the last dozen years or so, but its quite clear that Pagano was more in tune with the strengths of the Ravens D than the current defensive coordinator, Dean Pees.  I know the defense was able to hold the Bengals to only 14 points in week one, and I'm aware that the the defense was able to come up with big stops at the right time against the Patriots, but one simply can't ignore the sheer yardage that the Ravens have allowed during the last 3 weeks.  The Ravens currently rank 28th in passing yards allowed per game with 289.7 and 18th in rushing yards allowed per game with 111.7.  Now to be fair, the Ravens have faced 3 high powered offenses during that timespan with great quarterbacks and elite receivers.  What scares me most, however, is the fact that the Ravens seldom allowed more than 100 yards on the ground in single games for over a decade, and now they're AVERAGING over 100 yards allowed per game though they've actually only faced one elite running back in LeSean McCoy.  The Ravens also touted their secondary as one of the best in the NFL before the season began.  I still believe that to be true, but with one glaring weakness: CARY WILLIAMS.  Cary has been picked on by quarterbacks during each game he's played thus far.  I believe teams watched tape of the preseason game against the Falcons and observed his ability to stay with a receiver, but a total lack of the presence of mind to turn and make a play on the ball.  On Sunday night, Cary Williams alone allowed 129 passing yards...please take that in for a minute...129 yards allowed by one Ravens corner in one game, and the Patriots don't even have much speed at the wide receiver position.  If Pees is smart, he'll do what needs to be done to correct this issue or else the Ravens will have trouble against any team with big, talented, speedy receivers.    
     One bright spot has been Ed Reed's renewed committment to laying out receivers with absolutely punishing hits the way he did when he was younger.  Reed's contract is up at the end of this season, and a big year with a high level of physicality from him would ensure that the Ravens use the franchise tag on him next season after signing Flacco to a long term deal.  It also means that we're going to get everything Ed's got this year regardless of nerve imingement.  Another bright spot has been the intimidating and intense play of Bernard Pollard.  He has, at this point, taken the crown from old Ray as the team's hardest hitter, and he has been wildly exciting to watch.  I simply hope the rest of the defense follows the lead of their starting safeties and puts our troubled minds at ease.
     One can attribute the Ravens defensive decline growing pains with a new coordinator, the loss of pro bowl caliber personnel, or a combination of the two, but the real test will be how the Ravens are able to adjust in the coming weeks.  Deen Pees still has a defense that is chock full of pro bowlers and soon-to-be pro bowlers, but he has to get the hang of using them correctly.  Will Pees learn from weeks 1-3 and begin disguising his blitz packages better?  We shall soon see as Thursday is rapidly approaching.  In the end, however, all that matters are wins and losses, but it sure would be reassuring to see the Ravens hold the lowly browns far under 100 rushing yards and below 200 passing yards with a handful of sacks and turnovers mixed in.  Stay tuned for analysis of notable games and teams from the rest of the league tomorrow.  As always GO RAVENS!!!