Watching Justin Tucker's missed extra point last week felt painfully similar to watching Billy Cundiff crush the dreams of nearly everyone in the greater Baltimore area in late 2011. We Ravens fans have, since 2012 at least, taken for granted that nearly everything Justin Tucker lines up for will be successful, and when the game was on the line last week, he failed. Tucker, however, was not nearly entirely to blame for the loss. That was not a superior New Orleans Saints team--though they are certainly talented.
So if not Tucker, who was the blame for last week's loss? Two major factors came into play in deciding that game, the first of which was the situation at the cornerback position. Not only was the team's top corner Marlon Humphrey out with a thigh injury, but Jimmy Smith also proved nowhere near ready to cover a #1 receiver the way he has for most of his career when healthy. Maybe the dominant win over the Titans covered up much of Smith's inadequacy, but he was brutally exposed by Mike Thomas when the Saints came marching into Baltimore, and a critical scoring drive was kept alive literally because Mike Thomas wasn't covered on two major 3rd and 4th down plays. In predicting a Ravens win, I erroneously thought Jimmy would be able to step in and mostly take Mike Thomas away the way he has in the past with Antonio Brown and a host of other receivers, but no such luck.
The defensive issues weren't entirely to blame for the loss. One rather unexpected announcement shortly before the game was that both Alex Lewis and James Hurst would be out leaving a backup at left guard and Orlando Brown at right tackle. I actually would prefer to put Brown out at right tackle permanently and bring Hurst back in at left guard where he opened up running lanes quite nicely last year, but the Ravens offensive line coach Joe D'Allesandris apparently does not agree. With that said, Hurst wasn't available either, and the Ravens ability to run the football, especially on first and second down continues to suffer. After Alex Collins or Buck Allen find daylight and breaks open for a decent run, I hear many fans clamor for the Ravens to run the football more, but they always conveniently fail to acknowledge what keeps happening when the Ravens DO try to impose their will on the ground. Time after time Collins takes a handoff and is buried behind the line of scrimmage as he waits for some kind of hole to open up. It's not until the Ravens spread a defense out and force linebackers to drop into pass coverage that Collins and Allen are able to break off any serious runs. The old hard-nosed Ravens run-first and then pass off of play action that we saw for much of the first half of Joe Flacco's career simply won't work with the current offensive line the way it's set up--especially not when they're short-handed as they were last week.
Unfortunately for the Ravens, they're once again going to be without key personnel when they take on a Panthers team that has yet to lose a game at home this season. Marlon Humphrey will once again be out as will James Hurst and Alex Lewis. To make matters worse, Alex Lewis' backup Bradley Bozeman was a limited participant on Friday as he has continued to deal with a calf issue that sidelined him numerous times against the Saints. With that said, the biggest obstacle to the Ravens stopping the Panthers would have been covering a speedy receiver, and Torrey Smith along with a handful of other players has been ruled out for this game. Devin Funchess is the Panthers' leading receiver, but he possesses no type of speed to beat and of the Ravens healthy corners for big plays. Christian McCaffrey is a talented running back, but he hasn't found the endzone once this season and it's difficult to imagine him doing so against this Ravens defense.
The Panthers aren't, however, to be taken lightly. Cam Newton is a big, athletic threat to extend plays with his legs and gain tough yards on the ground. Newton also has a big arm and has 11 passing touchdowns on the season thus far. The Panthers were able to beat the Bengals at home, and that's no easy feat. With that said, the Panthers have also allowed the likes of the Giants to put up 31 points on them in North Carolina, and the Ravens have an unquestionably better offense than the Giants regardless of the G-men possessing two top-tier weapons. The Ravens shouldn't struggle to complete successful scoring drives with consistency today, nor should they struggle to cover Panthers receivers. It is for these reasons that I have a hard time seeing Baltimore losing despite the absence of their top corner and two starting offensive linemen.
WEEK 8 NFL PICKS
BECAUSE OF THE LATE TIMING OF THIS POST, I WILL SIMPLY POST THE PREDICTED SCORES AND WINNERS OF EACH GAME.
EAGLES AT JAGUARS- EAGLES 24-14
JETS AT BEARS- BEARS 31-23
BUCCANEERS AT BENGALS- BENGALS 28-14
SEAHAWKS AT LIONS- LIONS 21-17
BRONCOS AT CHIEFS- CHIEFS 42-21
REDSKINS AT GIANTS- REDSKINS 34-20
BROWNS AT STEELERS- STEELERS 27-16
RAVENS AT PANTHERS- RAVENS 27-17
COLTS AT RAIDERS- COLTS 30-27
PACKERS AT RAMS- RAMS 33-24
49ERS AT CARDINALS- CARDINALS 27-14
SAINTS AT VIKINGS- SAINTS 35-27
PATRIOTS AT BILLS- PATRIOTS 49-3
THIS IS A WEEK FOR REDEMPTION, RAVENS FANS. THE RAVENS MUST BE ABLE TO PUT AWAY A TEAM AS FLAWED AS THE PANTHERS OR ELSE THEY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TREMENDOUSLY AGAINST MUCH TOUGHER COMPETITION GOING FORWARD.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, October 28, 2018
Saturday, October 20, 2018
SAINTS-RAVENS ANALYSIS AND WEEK 7 NFL PREDICTIONS
The Baltimore Ravens have, for nearly the last 6 years, struggled to establish any sort of lasting identity. When Ray Lewis retired and Ed Reed departed in free agency, the team was left with a void in leadership and glaring positional holes that the player personnel department struggled mightily to fill. The last two seasons have ended in heartbreaking fashion with last minute 4th quarter leads vanishing in unlikely plays within the final game or two of the season. Never mind that the Ravens technically finished with a winning 9-7 record last year; it's all for naught if such a record falls short of yielding a playoff berth.
This season has already seen two divisional losses to familiar foes, but somehow the overall feeling surrounding the team has been far more optimistic--and deservedly so. Not only does Baltimore own the top defense in regards to both scoring and yards allowed per game, but the Ravens have also found themselves ranked 10th in total offense and second in the league behind only the undefeated Rams in point differential thus far. Issues such as a lack of healthy quality corners and sure-handed receivers adept at gaining separation from defenders seem like a distant memory as we enter Week 7. Joe Flacco has mostly been surprisingly confident despite not being able to lean on a strong running game as he had during the initial and wildly successful first phase of his career.
The lack of a consistent running game can likely be attributed to weakness at the center position with Matt Skura stepping in to replace a ferociously strong Ryan Jensen who departed in the off-season. Skura performs admirably in pass protection, but his ability to open up rushing lanes is non-existent. Alex Lewis is also one who is quite athletic in pass protection, but not nearly physical enough to help spring Alex Collins for solid runs. It's possible that there could yet be shuffling along the offensive line to get Hurst back to left guard where he excelled last season and put Orlando Brown at right tackle, but it's unclear how the Ravens feel about experimenting with that setup at this point in season.
Despite playing at home against a dome team, the Ravens shouldn't expect some miraculous explosion of rushing tomorrow considering the Saints boast the league's top run defense with only 3.1 yards per carry allowed thus far. That in no way means the run should be abandoned entirely, but instead of running to set up the pass, the Ravens should take advantage of a 17th ranked New Orleans pass defense and pass to set up the run. The Saints haven't exactly been a defensive power this season. The least amount of points they've allowed a team to score has been 18, and both teams the Saints held to 18 points, the Giants and Browns, possess a combined 3 wins. Far more troubling for New Orleans fans should be the fact that the Saints allowed the Buccaneers to put up 48 points to kick off the season and the Falcons to amass 37 points in their matchup in Atlanta just over one month ago--the Bucs and Falcons combine for 4 wins on the season.
The Saints have a single win over a team with a winning record, and while wins are always tough to come by in the NFL, no one should be crowning them Super Bowl champs just yet. The Ravens, meanwhile, have allowed only a single poor defensive performance on the season in their road defeat to the Bengals. Baltimore held every other opponent they've faced to 14 points or less. Drew Brees is a better quarterback than Ben Roethlisberger, but the disparity isn't that pronounced that the Ravens suffocating defensive performance in Pittsburgh should be taken lightly. Suggs, Weddle, and company should also be given major credit for stifling a remarkably mobile Marcus Mariota last week even if the Titans aren't loaded with offensive weapons.
The Saints certainly have more offensive clout than the Titans, but as I review the Saints stats I'm not struck by a great number of weapons. Alvin Kamara is a fantastic all-purpose back with 299 yards on the ground and 351 yards through the air, and Michael Thomas has already tallied 519 receiving yards, but beyond those two, the Saints' talent level drops off sharply. Mark Ingram is only averaging 3.3 yards per carry, and not a single other Saints receiver has totaled 200 yards yet. The Ravens, by contrast, have 3 wide receivers with well over 300 receiving yards on the season, and a trio of tight ends who have combined to over 400 more yards.
The Ravens might not have a receiver quite on the level of Michael Thomas, but they can spread the field with more quality receiving weapons than can New Orleans. To make matters worse for the Saints, the Ravens can stick Jimmy Smith on Mike Thomas and commit significant personnel to stopping Alvin Kamara. Marshon Lattimore will likely be employed to try and limit Smokey Brown, but Willie Snead and Michael Crabtree should still be able to do quite a bit of damage on a less-than-suffocating Saints pass defense.
One cause for concern for Baltimore is an injury to the Ravens top young cornerback Marlon Humphrey. Humphrey came out of Friday's practice with what was reported as a "thigh" injury. In all likelihood, the young shutdown corner tweaked his hamstring, but it's entirely possible he took a knee to the quadriceps or something of that nature. Whether or not Humphrey can play on Sunday is a major factor in just how strong the Ravens secondary will be, but cornerback depth with Jimmy Smith back is strong enough that Humphrey's absence shouldn't tip the scales in favor of the Saints.
The Saints are coming off of a bye week, but they're a dome team that never seems to perform well on outdoor grass fields--and they've never beaten the Ravens in the history of their franchise. This may be a stronger, more complete Ravens team any of the others that have faced New Orleans, and it's difficult to imagine them taking a loss in their return home. The Ravens are absolutely saturated with pass rushers, and even a relatively mobile quarterback such as Drew Brees will have trouble evading the likes of Zadarius Smith, Terrell Suggs, Matt Judon, and Tim Williams. The direction of new Ravens defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has meant the most aggressive, fast-flowing Ravens defense since 2011 under Chuck Pagano, and this year's unit already possesses an even higher ranking. If this game were being played in New Orleans, I might pick a different outcome, but it's hard to see Baltimore dropping this one in front of 70,000 people in purple.
WEEK 7 PICKS
TITANS AT CHARGERS- The Titans already look incredibly uneven this season, but now they have to travel across the country to face a Chargers team coming off of 3 straight impressive wins. Good luck Tennessee. CHARGERS 33-17
PATRIOTS AT BEARS- I would ordinarily pick the Patriots in this matchup, but New England will be without nearly all of their tight ends including Gronk, and New England is 0-2 on the road thus far this season. The Bears, meanwhile, are not unstoppable, but they've won two rather convincing games at home for a 2-0 home record thus far. New England will bounce back as the Patriots return to health, but I wouldn't want to go short-handed on the road to face a Bears defense that ranks 3rd in the league in yards allowed and 4th in points allowed per game. BEARS 24-21
BILLS AT COLTS- Derek Anderson starting QB for the Bills? This may be the worst game of the season. COLTS 27-14
LIONS AT DOLPHINS- The Lions aren't nearly as bad as they looked in abysmal Week 1 loss to the Jets, but the Dolphins are healthy and quite strong at home this season. DOLPHINS 28-23
VIKINGS AT JETS- It's difficult to know which Vikings team will show up from week to week. Will we see the team got blasted by one of the worst teams in football (the Bills)? Or will we see the team that only two weeks later went on the road to beat the Super Bowl Champion Eagles. The Jets have also had quite an up-and-down season to this point, and they'll only have 48 healthy players when they take the field this Sunday. Gang Green released Terrell Pryor and Enunwa is out for the week, so expect New York to be lacking in serious weapons. VIKINGS 31-20
PANTHERS AT EAGLES- Despite the Panthers 0-2 road record, they're almost completely healthy going into a game against an Eagles team with an alarming number of injured players set to be out on Sunday. Torrey Smith wasn't spectacular for the Eagles, but he served his purpose as a field-stretcher, and when Philly replaced him with Mike Wallace, they had no way of knowing Wallace would break his leg so early on. Teams don't typically do well the year after a Super Bowl victory, and the Eagles are no exception. PATHERS 23-17
BROWNS AT BUCCANEERS- I said before the beginning of the regular season that I believed the Browns could win 6-8 games and they've already won 2 and tied 1. They were blasted by the Chargers, but they'll bounce back against a Bucs team that hasn't won since Week 2. BROWNS 30-27
TEXANS AT JAGUARS- Neither the Texans' current 3-game winning streak nor the Jaguars' early season win over a Patriots team that often begins the season dropping 2-3 games should figure much into the outcome of Sunday's matchup in Jacksonville. The Jaguars have dropped 3 of their last 4 games, but they'll receive an offensive boost from their recently acquired back, Carlos Hyde. The Texans have only narrowly beaten some of the worst teams in the league during their current winning streak, and it's difficult to see them edging a Jaguars team that has a corner who can severely limit DeAndre Hopkins who I maintain is the most athletically gifted receiver in the league. Beyond Hopkins, the Texans don't care me. JAGUARS 31-21
SAINTS AT RAVENS- The Saints don't have a diverse enough array of weapons to challenge a Ravens defense that can cover and get after the quarterback as well as they have this season. Baltimore, on the other hand, has more than enough weapons to put points on the board against a Saints defense that ranks in the bottom half in the league in pass defense. Welcome home, birds. RAVENS 27-20
RAMS AT 49ERS- I...don't need to dignify this with serious analysis do I? The 49ers are 1-5. The Rams are undefeated though not incredibly dominant on the road. Nevertheless, the Rams will win this game. RAMS 26-13
COWBOYS AT REDSKINS- I hate predicting this matchup, but the Cowboys have lost all of their road games this season, and the Redskins are 2-1 at home. It is for that reason, and that reason alone that I'm giving Washington an edge here, but the Boys could easily make me look stupid. It's just that the Cowboys have averaged a head-scratching 12.33 points per game on the road while scoring an average 28.667 points per game in Arlington. REDSKINS 21-17
BENGALS AT CHIEFS- The Bengals are 2-1 on the road, but their 2 road wins were narrow and against teams with FAR less offensive firepower than the Chiefs. This is a strong Bengals team this season, but they'll drop to 2-2 on the road this weekend. CHIEFS 34-27
GIANTS AT FALCONS- Both of these teams suck, but the Falcons can at least do enough offensively to outscore a Giants team that has been frustrating to their fans and players alike. FALCONS 33-20
I MUST APOLOGIZE TO MY READERS FOR SUCH A LATE START TO THIS SEASON'S POSTING, BUT GET READY FOR A FANTASTIC SECOND HALF OF THE 2018 SEASON WHERE WE'LL SEE EXACTLY WHAT THIS RAVENS TEAM IS MADE OF!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
This season has already seen two divisional losses to familiar foes, but somehow the overall feeling surrounding the team has been far more optimistic--and deservedly so. Not only does Baltimore own the top defense in regards to both scoring and yards allowed per game, but the Ravens have also found themselves ranked 10th in total offense and second in the league behind only the undefeated Rams in point differential thus far. Issues such as a lack of healthy quality corners and sure-handed receivers adept at gaining separation from defenders seem like a distant memory as we enter Week 7. Joe Flacco has mostly been surprisingly confident despite not being able to lean on a strong running game as he had during the initial and wildly successful first phase of his career.
The lack of a consistent running game can likely be attributed to weakness at the center position with Matt Skura stepping in to replace a ferociously strong Ryan Jensen who departed in the off-season. Skura performs admirably in pass protection, but his ability to open up rushing lanes is non-existent. Alex Lewis is also one who is quite athletic in pass protection, but not nearly physical enough to help spring Alex Collins for solid runs. It's possible that there could yet be shuffling along the offensive line to get Hurst back to left guard where he excelled last season and put Orlando Brown at right tackle, but it's unclear how the Ravens feel about experimenting with that setup at this point in season.
Despite playing at home against a dome team, the Ravens shouldn't expect some miraculous explosion of rushing tomorrow considering the Saints boast the league's top run defense with only 3.1 yards per carry allowed thus far. That in no way means the run should be abandoned entirely, but instead of running to set up the pass, the Ravens should take advantage of a 17th ranked New Orleans pass defense and pass to set up the run. The Saints haven't exactly been a defensive power this season. The least amount of points they've allowed a team to score has been 18, and both teams the Saints held to 18 points, the Giants and Browns, possess a combined 3 wins. Far more troubling for New Orleans fans should be the fact that the Saints allowed the Buccaneers to put up 48 points to kick off the season and the Falcons to amass 37 points in their matchup in Atlanta just over one month ago--the Bucs and Falcons combine for 4 wins on the season.
The Saints have a single win over a team with a winning record, and while wins are always tough to come by in the NFL, no one should be crowning them Super Bowl champs just yet. The Ravens, meanwhile, have allowed only a single poor defensive performance on the season in their road defeat to the Bengals. Baltimore held every other opponent they've faced to 14 points or less. Drew Brees is a better quarterback than Ben Roethlisberger, but the disparity isn't that pronounced that the Ravens suffocating defensive performance in Pittsburgh should be taken lightly. Suggs, Weddle, and company should also be given major credit for stifling a remarkably mobile Marcus Mariota last week even if the Titans aren't loaded with offensive weapons.
The Saints certainly have more offensive clout than the Titans, but as I review the Saints stats I'm not struck by a great number of weapons. Alvin Kamara is a fantastic all-purpose back with 299 yards on the ground and 351 yards through the air, and Michael Thomas has already tallied 519 receiving yards, but beyond those two, the Saints' talent level drops off sharply. Mark Ingram is only averaging 3.3 yards per carry, and not a single other Saints receiver has totaled 200 yards yet. The Ravens, by contrast, have 3 wide receivers with well over 300 receiving yards on the season, and a trio of tight ends who have combined to over 400 more yards.
The Ravens might not have a receiver quite on the level of Michael Thomas, but they can spread the field with more quality receiving weapons than can New Orleans. To make matters worse for the Saints, the Ravens can stick Jimmy Smith on Mike Thomas and commit significant personnel to stopping Alvin Kamara. Marshon Lattimore will likely be employed to try and limit Smokey Brown, but Willie Snead and Michael Crabtree should still be able to do quite a bit of damage on a less-than-suffocating Saints pass defense.
One cause for concern for Baltimore is an injury to the Ravens top young cornerback Marlon Humphrey. Humphrey came out of Friday's practice with what was reported as a "thigh" injury. In all likelihood, the young shutdown corner tweaked his hamstring, but it's entirely possible he took a knee to the quadriceps or something of that nature. Whether or not Humphrey can play on Sunday is a major factor in just how strong the Ravens secondary will be, but cornerback depth with Jimmy Smith back is strong enough that Humphrey's absence shouldn't tip the scales in favor of the Saints.
The Saints are coming off of a bye week, but they're a dome team that never seems to perform well on outdoor grass fields--and they've never beaten the Ravens in the history of their franchise. This may be a stronger, more complete Ravens team any of the others that have faced New Orleans, and it's difficult to imagine them taking a loss in their return home. The Ravens are absolutely saturated with pass rushers, and even a relatively mobile quarterback such as Drew Brees will have trouble evading the likes of Zadarius Smith, Terrell Suggs, Matt Judon, and Tim Williams. The direction of new Ravens defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has meant the most aggressive, fast-flowing Ravens defense since 2011 under Chuck Pagano, and this year's unit already possesses an even higher ranking. If this game were being played in New Orleans, I might pick a different outcome, but it's hard to see Baltimore dropping this one in front of 70,000 people in purple.
WEEK 7 PICKS
TITANS AT CHARGERS- The Titans already look incredibly uneven this season, but now they have to travel across the country to face a Chargers team coming off of 3 straight impressive wins. Good luck Tennessee. CHARGERS 33-17
PATRIOTS AT BEARS- I would ordinarily pick the Patriots in this matchup, but New England will be without nearly all of their tight ends including Gronk, and New England is 0-2 on the road thus far this season. The Bears, meanwhile, are not unstoppable, but they've won two rather convincing games at home for a 2-0 home record thus far. New England will bounce back as the Patriots return to health, but I wouldn't want to go short-handed on the road to face a Bears defense that ranks 3rd in the league in yards allowed and 4th in points allowed per game. BEARS 24-21
BILLS AT COLTS- Derek Anderson starting QB for the Bills? This may be the worst game of the season. COLTS 27-14
LIONS AT DOLPHINS- The Lions aren't nearly as bad as they looked in abysmal Week 1 loss to the Jets, but the Dolphins are healthy and quite strong at home this season. DOLPHINS 28-23
VIKINGS AT JETS- It's difficult to know which Vikings team will show up from week to week. Will we see the team got blasted by one of the worst teams in football (the Bills)? Or will we see the team that only two weeks later went on the road to beat the Super Bowl Champion Eagles. The Jets have also had quite an up-and-down season to this point, and they'll only have 48 healthy players when they take the field this Sunday. Gang Green released Terrell Pryor and Enunwa is out for the week, so expect New York to be lacking in serious weapons. VIKINGS 31-20
PANTHERS AT EAGLES- Despite the Panthers 0-2 road record, they're almost completely healthy going into a game against an Eagles team with an alarming number of injured players set to be out on Sunday. Torrey Smith wasn't spectacular for the Eagles, but he served his purpose as a field-stretcher, and when Philly replaced him with Mike Wallace, they had no way of knowing Wallace would break his leg so early on. Teams don't typically do well the year after a Super Bowl victory, and the Eagles are no exception. PATHERS 23-17
BROWNS AT BUCCANEERS- I said before the beginning of the regular season that I believed the Browns could win 6-8 games and they've already won 2 and tied 1. They were blasted by the Chargers, but they'll bounce back against a Bucs team that hasn't won since Week 2. BROWNS 30-27
TEXANS AT JAGUARS- Neither the Texans' current 3-game winning streak nor the Jaguars' early season win over a Patriots team that often begins the season dropping 2-3 games should figure much into the outcome of Sunday's matchup in Jacksonville. The Jaguars have dropped 3 of their last 4 games, but they'll receive an offensive boost from their recently acquired back, Carlos Hyde. The Texans have only narrowly beaten some of the worst teams in the league during their current winning streak, and it's difficult to see them edging a Jaguars team that has a corner who can severely limit DeAndre Hopkins who I maintain is the most athletically gifted receiver in the league. Beyond Hopkins, the Texans don't care me. JAGUARS 31-21
SAINTS AT RAVENS- The Saints don't have a diverse enough array of weapons to challenge a Ravens defense that can cover and get after the quarterback as well as they have this season. Baltimore, on the other hand, has more than enough weapons to put points on the board against a Saints defense that ranks in the bottom half in the league in pass defense. Welcome home, birds. RAVENS 27-20
RAMS AT 49ERS- I...don't need to dignify this with serious analysis do I? The 49ers are 1-5. The Rams are undefeated though not incredibly dominant on the road. Nevertheless, the Rams will win this game. RAMS 26-13
COWBOYS AT REDSKINS- I hate predicting this matchup, but the Cowboys have lost all of their road games this season, and the Redskins are 2-1 at home. It is for that reason, and that reason alone that I'm giving Washington an edge here, but the Boys could easily make me look stupid. It's just that the Cowboys have averaged a head-scratching 12.33 points per game on the road while scoring an average 28.667 points per game in Arlington. REDSKINS 21-17
BENGALS AT CHIEFS- The Bengals are 2-1 on the road, but their 2 road wins were narrow and against teams with FAR less offensive firepower than the Chiefs. This is a strong Bengals team this season, but they'll drop to 2-2 on the road this weekend. CHIEFS 34-27
GIANTS AT FALCONS- Both of these teams suck, but the Falcons can at least do enough offensively to outscore a Giants team that has been frustrating to their fans and players alike. FALCONS 33-20
I MUST APOLOGIZE TO MY READERS FOR SUCH A LATE START TO THIS SEASON'S POSTING, BUT GET READY FOR A FANTASTIC SECOND HALF OF THE 2018 SEASON WHERE WE'LL SEE EXACTLY WHAT THIS RAVENS TEAM IS MADE OF!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
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